report of the resource adequacy working group serc 2010...
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IEEE LOLE Working Group
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Report of the
Resource Adequacy Working Group
SERC 2010 LOLE/PRM Study
November 7-8, 2011
Austin, TX
A.E. (Butch) Kimble, Southern Company
SERC Resource Adequacy Working Group Chair
IEEE LOLE Working Group
RAWG Activity Updates
• October 2010 – RAWG approved to work with GE (MARS model) to revise
its initial summer 2010 study to include the following:
Include the SERC portions of the PJM and MISO areas
Utilize more accurate modeling of transmission import capabilities from
areas outside SERC
Utilize more accurate modeling of transmission import/export capabilities
between SERC Metric Reporting Areas (MRAs)
SERC MRAs: SERC-N, SERC-E, SERC-W, SERC-SE
Model in greater detail the operating procedures of each SERC MRA
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IEEE LOLE Working Group
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SERC LOLE/PRM Study Summary Results 2011
Selected Reliability Metrics
Isolated Interconnected
DLOLE
(days/yr)
LOLH
(hrs/yr)
EUE
(MWh/yr)
EUE
(MPM)
DLOLE
(days/yr)
LOLH
(hrs/yr)
EUE
(MWh/yr)
EUE
(MPM)
SERC-N 0.435 4.233 6115.7 25.92 0.000 0.001 0.5 0.00
SERC-SE 0.000 0.001 0.3 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.0 0.00
SERC-E 0.012 0.882 824.7 3.81 0.000 0.007 5.0 0.02
SERC-W 0.000 0.000 0.0 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.0 0.00
Gateway 3.678 13.262 8899.0 84.37 0.000 0.001 0.4 0.00
VACS-PJM 0.015 0.349 168.5 1.70 0.000 0.000 0.0 0.00
IEEE LOLE Working Group
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SERC LOLE/PRM Study Summary Results 2014
Selected Reliability Metrics
Isolated Interconnected
DLOLE
(days/yr)
LOLH
(hrs/yr)
EUE
(MWh/yr)
EUE
(MPM)
DLOLE
(days/yr)
LOLH
(hrs/yr)
EUE
(MWh/yr)
EUE
(MPM)
SERC-N 0.255 2.929 3890.2 15.41 0.000 0.003 1.7 0.01
SERC-SE 0.000 0.006 3.7 0.01 0.000 0.000 0.0 0.00
SERC-E 0.010 0.581 556.5 2.46 0.000 0.004 3.5 0.02
SERC-W 0.000 0.000 0.0 0.00 0.000 0.000 0.0 0.00
Gateway 0.077 0.161 73.9 0.69 0.000 0.001 0.1 0.00
VACS-PJM 0.198 3.870 2642.3 24.43 0.000 0.002 1.1 0.01
IEEE LOLE Working Group
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SERC LOLE/PRM Study
Major Conclusions
• SERC system easily meets a 0.1 day/year LOLE level at today’s reserve
margins, while respecting import and internal transfer limits for both study
years, 2011 and 2014.
• Only in an isolated reporting area scenario, which precludes any imports,
did SERC-N and SERC-Gateway exceed the 0.1 day/year LOLE level.
IEEE LOLE Working Group
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Report Recommendations
• SERC to continue data collection coordination efforts with MISO and PJM.
Coordination of Gateway data with MISO
Continue coordination efforts to model outside of SERC with PJM
• Collect multiple years of historical demand data for calculating load
forecast uncertainty (SERC-W and Gateway, prior to 2006).
• Study the impact of historical load shapes on metrics and PRM (2008 vs.
2002).
• Continue ongoing transfer capability collaboration efforts with the SERC
Near-Term Study Group/Long-Term Study Group.
IEEE LOLE Working Group
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Reliability of SERC As-Found
“The as-found system was demonstrated to have reserves well in excess of the reserves needed to meet the 0.1 days/year LOLE Level.”
IEEE LOLE Working Group
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Reliability Indices Development
• Reliability indices were developed for the as-found system in two distinct
manners:
Each MRA is fully interconnected relying on assistance from neighboring
SERC MRAs and external areas.
Each MRA is completely isolated from its neighbors and receives no
external assistance.
• Indices were calculated for:
LOLE – loss-of-load expectation in days per year
LOLH – loss-of-load hours per year
EUE – expected unserved energy in MWh per year
EUE (MPM) – expected unserved energy per million MWh per year
• The PRM result is for information only, and is not suggested as a long-
term planning criterion.
IEEE LOLE Working Group
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Isolated Subregion LOLEs 2011
if each area stands alone
“On an isolated basis, with no non-firm emergency assistance between the areas…”
Average EFORd (%)
SERC-N 8.00
SERC-W 6.09
SERC-SE 5.91
SERC-E 6.35
Gateway 6.76
VACS-PJM 5.13
SERC 6.49
• Higher average forced-
outage rates in SERC-N
contributes to its higher risk.
• High exports from Gateway
leads to its higher risk.
0 d/y
19%17%
30%
0 d/y
53%
.01
d/y
.44 d/y
11%
3.7 d/y 14%
.01 d/y
IEEE LOLE Working Group
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Isolated Subregion LOLEs 2014
if each area stands alone
“On an isolated basis, with no non-firm emergency assistance between the areas…”
• Higher average forced-outage
rates in SERC-N contributes to
its higher risk.
• Increased reserves and
lowered exports from Gateway
leads to its reduced risk.
• Lower reserves in VACS-PJM
leads to increased risk.
0 d/y
19%18%
27%
0 d/y
53%
.01
d/y
.26 d/y
23%
.08 d/y 6%
.2d/yAverage EFORd (%)
SERC-N 8.00
SERC-W 6.09
SERC-SE 5.91
SERC-E 6.35
Gateway 6.76
VACS-PJM 5.13
SERC 6.49
IEEE LOLE Working Group
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Planning Reserve Margin Analysis
• The PRM analysis finds the reserve margin for each MRA that
corresponds with 0.1 days/year LOLE.
• Since the as-found system has very low LOLE, this requires removing
capacity from the system.
• PRM was investigated for several scenarios:
As-found (base case)
No internal constraints – no interface constraints within SERC
No emergency assistance from external SERC neighbors
No load forecast uncertainty – load forecast is perfect
• The PRM result is for information only, and is not suggested as a long-
term planning criterion.
IEEE LOLE Working Group
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“Planning Reserve Margin”
Base Case
2011 2014
Base RM
(%)
MW
Adjustment
Resulting
PRM (%)
Base RM
(%)
MW
Adjustment
Resulting
PRM (%)
SERC-N 19.1 -4,598 9.1 19.1 -4,957 8.6
SERC-SE 30.7 -10,427 9.2 26.9 -9,800 8.1
SERC-E 17.4 -4,458 7.2 18.5 -5,061 7.5
SERC-W 53.5 -11,224 6.3 53.2 -11,293 8.1
Gateway 10.9 -1,148 5.2 23.3 -2,949 9.2
VACS-PJM 13.7 -13,861 -56.8 6.2 -9,760 -39.4
IEEE LOLE Working Group
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“Planning Reserve Margin”
No Internal Constraints
2011 2014
Base RM
(%)
MW
Adjustment
Resulting
PRM (%)
Base RM
(%)
MW
Adjustment
Resulting
PRM (%)
SERC-N 19.1 -6,435 5.2 19.1 -6,261 5.9
SERC-SE 30.7 -13,296 3.3 26.9 -10,405 7.0
SERC-E 17.4 -10,336 -6.1 18.5 -9,706 -2.5
SERC-W 53.5 -13,833 -4.7 53.2 -14,371 -4.2
Gateway 10.9 536 13.6 23.3 -2,526 11.2
VACS-PJM 13.7 -3,795 -5.6 6.2 -2,145 -3.8
IEEE LOLE Working Group
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“Planning Reserve Margin”
No External Emergency Assistance
2011 2014
Base RM
(%)
MW
Adjustment
Resulting
PRM (%)
Base RM
(%)
MW
Adjustment
Resulting
PRM (%)
SERC-N 19.1 -1,837 15.1 19.1 -2,777 13.2
SERC-SE 30.7 -9,098 12.0 26.9 -8,450 10.7
SERC-E 17.4 -3,876 8.5 18.5 -4,533 8.7
SERC-W 53.5 -10,937 7.5 53.2 -11,171 8.6
Gateway 10.9 1,073 16.3 23.3 -2,070 13.5
VACS-PJM 13.7 -9,876 -36.5 6.2 -7,995 -31.1
IEEE LOLE Working Group
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“Planning Reserve Margin”
No Load Forecast Uncertainty
2011 2014
Base RM
(%)
MW
Adjustment
Resulting
PRM (%)
Base RM
(%)
MW
Adjustment
Resulting
PRM (%)
SERC-N 19.1 -10,441 -3.5 19.1 -11,229 -4.7
SERC-SE 30.7 -12,547 4.8 26.9 -12,494 3.0
SERC-E 17.4 -6,311 3.0 18.5 -6,919 3.5
SERC-W 53.5 -13,008 -1.2 53.2 -13,162 0.6
Gateway 10.9 -2,510 -1.6 23.3 -4,022 4.0
VACS-PJM 13.7 -15,178 -63.5 6.2 -10,472 -42.7