report of the photovoltaic (pv) industry roadmap workshop2 pv technology roadmap workshop exhibit 2....

Report of thePhotovoltaic (PV)

Industry RoadmapWorkshop

June 23-25, 1999Chicago, Illinois

September 30, 1999

i PV Technology Roadmap Workshop

Table of Contents

Executive Summary.......................................................................................................................1

Plenary Session .............................................................................................................................7

Markets and Applications ..............................................................................................................13

Components ..................................................................................................................................23

Manufacturing...............................................................................................................................31

Research .......................................................................................................................................39

Summary Session ..........................................................................................................................51

Appendix A. The Industry-Developed PV Roadmap: A Framework for U.S. Industry andTechnology Leadership ..........................................................................................A1

Appendix B. Basic Research Opportunities in Photovoltaics .......................................................B1

Appendix C. Workshop Agenda...................................................................................................C1

Appendix D. Workshop Participants.............................................................................................D1

ii PV Technology Roadmap Workshop

Foreword

his report documents a workshop on thetechnology barriers and research needs

of the photovoltaics (PV) industry. Theworkshop, which was held June 23-25, 1999,in Chicago, Illinois, brought together 44technology and market experts from the PVindustry, universities, and governmentresearch programs. It was facilitated by theNational Center for Photovoltaics (NCPV)on behalf of the PV industry’s effort todevelop its technology roadmap for thefuture.

The PV Industry Roadmap is an industry-wide effort to create a blueprint of research,technology, and market priorities that areneeded to accomplish long-term PV industrygoals. These goals are articulated in thedocument The Industry-Developed PVRoadmap: A Framework for U.S. Industryand Technology Leadership (attached asAppendix A to this report). The roadmap

workshop held in Chicago represents a majoreffort to identify research needs for theRoadmap. We welcome comments andsuggestions regarding the completeness andaccuracy of the workshop’s findings.

This document must be viewed asevolutionary in nature. While it presents animpressive distillation of PV industryresearch needs, the workshop wasnecessarily limited in time, scope, andparticipation, and may not fully incorporateall viewpoints. Every effort was made toinclude a broad range of industryparticipants, but it is inevitable that valuableideas may have been left out. Thus, thisdocument should be considered as a “workin progress” to develop an industryconsensus on PV research and markettransformation needs that will evolve asadditional information becomes available.

ContactsFor current versions of this document and updatesabout the PV Industry Roadmap, please seewww.nrel.gov/ncpv. Please send any commentsto [email protected].

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1 PV Technology Roadmap Workshop

Executive Summary

he U.S. photovoltaics industry is theworld leader in research, technology,manufacturing, and market share. In

recent years, however, foreign governmentshave recognized the very large marketoppor-tunities that PV systems present. World interest is being fueled by a number ofkey PV attributes, including its availability asa clean, emission-free, and renewable energysource, its reliability, consumer-friendliness,and ability to be deployed in a variety ofapplications, and its importance to ournational energy security as a fuel-free,distributed energy source. This worldinterest is reflected in well-coordinatedresearch and deployment programs invarious countries, including Japan andGermany, among others, that is leading toestablishment of very strong internationalcompetition in PV technology.

The U.S. PV industry has recognized thatlarge market opportunities exist forphotovoltaics, but understands as well the

challenge of emerging internationalcompetition. To meet this challenge, and torealize the environmental, economic, andenergy-security benefits of a large PVindustry for the U.S., a committee has beenconvened to develop a strategic plan, orroadmap, for achieving full market potentialof the U.S. PV industry. The AdvisoryBoard for the National Center forPhotovoltaics (NCPV) is currently serving asthe PV Roadmap Steering Committee, andconsists of representatives of major U.S. PVmanufacturers, utilities, and universities(Exhibit 1). The NCPV is facilitating thedevelopment of the PV Industry Roadmapfor the U.S. PV industry. The NCPV helpsguide the U.S. PV R&D program for theU.S. Department of Energy and is apartnership between the National RenewableEnergy Laboratory (NREL) in Golden,Colorado, and Sandia National Laboratoriesin Albuquerque, New Mexico. Together,these organizations and individuals areutilizing the expertise of industry, the

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Exhibit 1. PV Roadmap Steering Committee

Allen BarnettPresident,AstroPower

Larry CrowleyPresident,Idaho Power

Chester A. FarrisPresident and CEO,Siemens Solar Industries

Harvey ForestChief Scientist and Past President,BP Solarex

Lionel KimmerlingThomas Lord Professor of Materials Science andEngineering, and Director,Massachusetts Institute of Technology

Roger LittlePresident,Spire Corporation

William RoppeneckerPresident,Trace Engineering

Richard SchwartzDean, Schools of Engineering,Purdue University


Exhibit 2. PV Growth Strategy 2000-2020

research community, and other interestedparties to cooperatively develop a strategicplan that will raise the level of financial andtechnical investment in photovoltaictechnologies.

The roadmap will guide U.S. photovoltaicsresearch, technology, manufacturing,applications, markets, and policy through2020. Early in 1999, the PV committeeestablished the following vision as a first stepin developing the PV industry roadmap:

“...to realize a thrivingUnited States-based solarelectric power industry,which provides competitiveand environmentally friendlyenergy products and servicesthat meet the needs anddesires of the domesticelectric-energy consumer.”

In support of this vision, the PV RoadmapSteering Committee identified an aggressivegrowth strategy for the PV industry(Exhibit 2) that would result in a largeprojection of cumulative installed PVcapacity in the United States and the world(Exhibit 3). Additionally, four concepts forimplementing the vision and theseprojections have been developed. They areas follows:

• Maintain the U.S. industry’sworldwide technological leadership

• Achieve economic competitivenesswith conventional technologies

• Maintain a sustained market and PVproduction growth

• Make the PV industry profitable andattractive to investors

The PV Industry Roadmap SteeringCommittee articulated a number of goals andtargets to support the vision and fourconcepts. Addressing new electricalgenerating requirements, the PV RoadmapSteering Committee projected the following“endpoint” for 2020:

“For the domestic photovoltaicindustry to provide up to 15% (about3,200 MW) of new U.S. peakelectricity generating capacityexpected to be required in 2020. TheU.S. cumulative PV shipments will beabout 30 GWp at this time.”

Overall goals for the U.S. photovoltaicsindustry align with the 25% annualproduction growth rate displayed inExhibit 4. Specific goals are categorizedin two major industry target areas—installed volume and cost:

Exhibit 3. Cumulative PV Shipments forthe U.S. and Worldwide


Exhibit 4. Projections of U.S. ManufacturedPV Modules Installed in U.S. Domestic

Applications

• Total installed volume of at least6 GW for the U.S. industry in 2020,of which 3.2 GW is used in domesticinstallations. Expected applicationmix will be

< 1/2 AC distributed generation< 1/3 DC and AC value

applications< 1/6 AC grid (wholesale)

generation

• Installed volume will continue toincrease, exceeding 9 GW in 2030.

• Cumulative U.S. installed capacity in2020 of about 15 GW, or about 20%of the 70 GW expected worldwide.

• End-user costs, including O&M, of$3 per watt AC in 2010, andapproaching $1.50 per watt AC in2020. Manufacturing costs areprojected to be 60% of system costs.

• International markets are significantand will remain a substantial portionof sales for the U.S. PV industry. Astrong domestic market for PVsystems is necessary in order to keep

the international competitiveness ofthe U.S. PV industry and to obtainthe environmental and distributedenergy benefits of PV energy for U.S.consumers.

To reach these goals, the PV industry and itspartners identified four critical TechnologyDevelopment Areas, around which theroadmap process was fashioned. Theseinclude:

• Markets and Applications• PV Components, Systems, and

Integration• Manufacturing, Equipment, and

Processes• Fundamental and Applied Research

On June 23-25, 1999, the NCPV, on behalfof the PV Industry Roadmap SteeringCommittee, hosted 44 experts from the PVindustry, as well as decision-makers fromelectric utilities, universities, researchorganizations, system integrators, andmarketers, to develop the preliminary out-lines for the PV Roadmap. The three-dayworkshop addressed technology and marketbarriers, and research, marketing, andtechnology transfer needs of the entire PVindustry. The core of the workshop wasfour facilitated breakout sessions, in whichparticipants explored the primary barriersand needs in the four technology develop-ment areas. These breakout sessionsresulted in over 140 ideas, of which about 20were considered priority. Exhibit 5 lists thetop research and technology transfer needsfor each breakout session.

Workshop participants took a further step ineach of their breakout sessions to identify aprogression of actions that should be takento best address the barriers and needs relatedto each Technology Development Area,which included both linkages among thecategories of needs as well as time frames forachieving success in carrying out the top


priority needs and actions. Each groupidentified appropriate time frames in whichresearch or market transformation would beexpected to yield benefits. Research andtechnology transfer activities were assignedto one of three time frames: near-term(0-3 years), mid-term (3–10 years), andlong-term (beyond 10 years). Participantsalso identified appropriate roles for industry,government, and educational institutions tosupport selected research or technologytransfer activities. In some instances,industry was identified as the lead; in others,government was so identified. The results ofthese efforts are described in this report andwill undoubtedly shape the compre-hensiveroadmap for implementing PV technologygoals.

In closing remarks, workshop participantssupported continuation of the roadmappingeffort for photovoltaics, suggesting that anactual roadmap, based on the stated visionand the results of this first workshop, bedeveloped by the industry, with support fromgovernment and other interested partners. Participants pointed to major paradigm shiftsin the energy supply and distribution systemas a result of deregulation in the electricitymarketplace. These shifts are drivingconsumer support for self-supply of energyin ever-increasing numbers. The PV industryshould work through its trade associationand allies to pursue collaborative researchand technology transfer activities for boththeir own, and world-wide consumer benefit.


Exhibit 5. Selected High Priority Research and Technology Transfer Needsfor the PV Industry

Markets and Applications PV Components, Systems,and Integration

PV Manufacturing Fundamental and AppliedResearch

Create an effective industrycoalition by forming atraditional, professional,industry-funded tradeassociation, that can lobbyand market PV, conductanalysis of competingtechnologies, and developalliances with other groups

Conduct consumereducation programs incooperation with otherorganizations, such asDPCA and NAESCO

Include photovoltaictechnology education as apart of the sciencecurriculum, so that it is astandard component ofscience learning

Improve involvement withgovernment, legislative, andregulatory decision-makersand clearly articulate theimpacts of inaction

Obtain long-term, low-interest financing for PVsystems

Develop national andinternational standards forPV products andcomponents, includingratings and verification toolsfor appropriate sizedsystems

Provide wider, moreeffective public exposure toPV products and their value

Design value-addedbuilding products using PV

Improve reliability, cost-effectiveness, and ease ofmaintenance for PVproducts that may be used inbuildings and buildingsystems, and quantifyexternalities associated withthese products

Demonstrate examples ofgood building design, andintegrated systems, usingPV components

Develop manufacturingpartnerships somanufacturers can workwith suppliers to developthe next generation of PVequipment

Develop on-line diagnostictools and systems toenhance process control anddevelopment

Conduct equipmentdemonstrations at highvolume (10,000 cells), sothat others involved inmanufacturing can observeand analyze data

Develop high volume, highthroughput, high efficiencycell processes

Design lower cost modulepackaging

Research, develop, anddemonstrate new materials,such as thin glass, throughchemical tempering, thinsemi-conducting materials,new encapsulants, lowtemperature conductingepoxy, optimizedtransparent conductingoxides, and alternativesubstrates

Improve cell efficiencies toreduce material costs

Develop materials anddevices with high efficiencyand low cost through R&Dwith specific targets

Address issues to increasethroughput, includingimproved automation,process control and scale-up(for cells and modulefabrication), high speedinterconnect andencapsulation, strategies toimprove industry widethroughput, anddevelopment of noveltechnologies such as rapidthermal processing (RTP)and high rate deposition(HRD)

Address thin-filmmanufacturing issues, suchas basic R&D, to developprocess control needs,process models, in-situdiagnostics, reactor andequipment design, mixedprocess integration, andbetter intermediate in-linetesting and diagnostics

.


Plenary Session

BACKGROUND

he U.S. PV industry is the world leaderin research, technology, manufacturing,and market share. In recent years,

however, foreign governments haverecognized that PV systems present apotentially large market opportunity forelectrification of both urban and ruralcommunities. World interest is being fueledby a number of PV attributes, including itsavailability as a clean, emission-free, andrenewable energy source, its reliability,consumer-friendliness, and ability to bedeployed in a variety of applications, and itsimportance to national security as a fuel-free,distributed energy source.

Industry leaders understand the challenge ofemerging international competition. To meetthis challenge, the industry began thedevelopment in January 1999, of a roadmap,or strategic plan, for achieving full marketpotential of photovoltaics, both in the U.S.and abroad. The PV Industry RoadmapSteering Committee has prepared a long-term vision of market, industry components,manufacturing, and research challenges in adocument entitled, The Industry-DevelopedPV Roadmap: A Framework for U.S.Industry and Technology Leadership. Thisroadmap vision represents an important steptoward defining a comprehensive research,development, and deployment strategy thatwill enable the photovoltaics industry toachieve its long-term goals.

The Framework document recognizes theimportance of collaborative planning andR&D partnering to its future vitality,especially since no segment of the industry iscurrently large enough to guide the needs ofthe entire infrastructure on its own. Bydeveloping a roadmap to the year 2020, theU.S. PV industry hopes to address critical

needs of photovoltaic technology and ensurecontinued U.S. industry leadership both hereand abroad.

The photovoltaics industry roadmap processis being coordinated by the National Centerfor Photovoltaics (NCPV). The NCPVAdvisory Board is currently serving as theroadmap’s steering committee and guidingthe overall roadmap process. With theIndustry-Developed PV Roadmap as a basisfor discussion, the NCPV planned andcoordinated a PV Industry TechnologyRoadmapping Workshop on June 23-25,1999, to address barriers and needs of thePV industry.

The Plenary Session of the workshop helpedparticipants gain a common understanding ofthe vision for the U.S. PV industry,implications of the vision in terms ofdirections, goals, and targets, financing PVin relationship to competing technologies,and marketing PV to potential end users.

THE VISION FOR THE U.S. PV INDUSTRY

Allen Barnett, representing the PV IndustryRoadmap Steering Committee, reviewed thevision as articulated in the Industry-Developed PV Roadmap document, “...torealize a thriving United States-based solarelectric power industry, which providescompetitive and environmentally friendlyenergy products and services that meet theneeds and desires of the domestic electric-energy consumer.”

He spoke about the need for the PVroadmap to serve all interests, includingconsumers, industry leaders, researchers, andmanu-facturers. The roadmap can help themall to get PV costs into a competitive range,as compared with competing technologies,

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and to enhance profits, which, in turn, willimprove the health of the industry.

IMPLICATIONS OF THE VISION: GOALS,TARGETS, AND ENDPOINTS

Roland Hulstrom, representing the NCPV,reviewed the Goals, Targets, and Endpointsarticulated in the Industry-Developed PVRoadmap document. The roadmap focuseson maintaining and building the globalleadership of the U.S. PV industry, in largepart through growth in the domestic market.A projected growth figure is estimated to be25% annually.

The “endpoints” projected for PV are for thedomestic photovoltaic industry to provide upto 15% (about 3,200 MW) of new U.S.electricity generating capacity in 2020 and25% in 2030. U.S. cumulative PV ship-ments will be about 30 GW at this time.

Specific goals stated in the roadmap docu-ment include total installed volume of at least6 GW for U.S. industry in 2020, of which3.2 GW will be used in domesticinstallations. The application mix is expectedto be:

1/2 AC distributed generation1/3 DC and AC value applications1/6 AC grid (wholesale) generation.

Installed volume will continue to increase,exceeding 9 GW of domestic photovoltaicsin 2030. In 2020, the cumulative installedU.S. capacity will be about 30 GW, or about35% of the 86 GW capacity expectedworldwide.

PV end-user cost goals (including O&Mcosts) are expected to be $3/watt AC in2010, approaching $1.50/watt AC in 2020. Total manufacturing costs are projected tobe 60% of the costs of the system.

Mr. Hulstrom discussed the implications ofthese goals and targets. For example:

• The level of annual shipments willhave to double every 4.1 years tomaintain a 25%/year growth rate. Manufacturing capacity will have toincrease accordingly.

• The U.S. will ship as many MW (ofmodules) from 2000 to 2008, as theydid from 1980 to 1998.

• To meet the 2020 goal (3.2 MW ofPV systems in the U.S.), the per-centage of U.S. modules shipped todomestic applications will have toincrease from 30% in 2000 to 50%by 2020.

• Capital investment dollars will beneeded to support rapidly increasingmanufacturing capacity growth.

FINANCING PV—KEEPING IN MINDCOMPETITIVE TECHNOLOGIES

Robert Shaw, President of AreteCorporation, discussed the availability ofcapital for the photovoltaic industry. Sources of capital for energy businesses areavailable from “angel” investors, venturecapital funds, government grants and con-tracts, corporations, institutional investors,the public market, banks, internationalfunding agencies, and foundations. Businesses in need of funds need tounderstand how to attract these investorsand understand that a profitable return oninvestment is the one key element with whichinvestors need to be comfortable.

Social and community value of PV may be ofinterest to an investor, but it does not sell thestory. Mr. Shaw explained that investorswant a unique, well protected product ortechnology; a large market opportunity; astrong management team; and a track recordof “on-plan” performance. In his view, thePV market is huge and the “story” is


compelling—the industry just needs to do abetter job of selling their story.

MARKETING PV: MEETING THE NEEDS OFEND USERS

A panel of PV experts then discussedmarketing photovoltaic technology andsystems to meet the needs of potential endusers. The panel consisted of Bob Johnson,Strategies Unlimited; Allen Barnett,AstroPower; Roland Hulstrom, NCPV; BobShaw, Arete Corporation; Bill Roppenecker,Trace Engineering; and Mike Stern, UPGGolden Genesis. The session was moderatedby James Gee, NCPV.

Mr. Johnson presented information on themarket share of PV-generated electricity inremote industrial, housing, and consumerenvironments; in grid-connected situations;and supplied to indoor consumers. Exhibit 6illustrates PV’s percentage of market sharein these applications. Exhibit 7 illustrates thegrowth of major PV applications during theyears 1980–1998.

Panel members then discussed a number ofissues with the assembled workshopparticipants, including the need to allow net

metering when integrating PV systems intothe electricity grid; the need for bettermarketing to illustrate the benefits of PV topotential end users; the need for solareducation in our schools, so that studentscan educate not only themselves, butinfluence their parents and care-givers; theneed to work cooperatively with architects,engineers, and builders, so they becomemore comfortable with incorporating PVsystems in their buildings; and the need toconduct cost comparisons with competingtechnologies on the basis of life cycle costs,rather than first costs.

DISTRIBUTED GENERATION: PV’S ROLE

Joe Ianucci of Distributed Utility Associatesdiscussed how distributed utility resourceswill play a role in future electricitygeneration and distribution, and specificallyhow photovoltaics can become a significantpart of the distributed utility marketplace. Exhibit 8 illustrates distributed utilitytechnologies, which are growing insignificance. PV has value as a distributedresource, but faces competition from otherelectricity distributed generation methods,including standby diesel generation,reciprocating engines, small com-bustionturbines and microturbines, batteries and

other electricity storage,fuel cells, and naturalgas.

Mr. Ianucci explainedthat distributedgeneration is likely to bedeveloped at a rapidpace, due to utilityderegulation, and thatsuch resources will meetbetween 5–40% of U.S.annual energy loadgrowth. If utilities donot take the lead indeveloping theseresources, individualcustomers will do so,

Exhibit 6. Photovoltaic Market Applications –1999 Share – Conventional Competition

Category Market PositionRemote Industrial MWp share: 29% (1)

Price/competition: 0.1-0.5x (2)Remote Habitation & ConsumerPower

MWp share: 37% (1)Price/competition: 0.2-0.8x (2)

Grid-Connected MWp share: 31% (1)Price/competition: 2-5x (2)

Consumer (Indoor) MWp share: 4% (1)Price/competition: N/A (2)

(1) 1998 – 134.8 MWp, $512 million in modules FOB mfg.,$1.5 billion in end user systemssales.1999 Est. – 155 to 170 MWp, $570 to $630 million in modules FOB mfg., $1.7 to $1.9billion in end user systems sales.

(2) Ratio of installed photovoltaic system cost to the cost of competing conventional power.


assisted by aggressive energy servicescompanies. The challenge for PVmanufacturers, distributors, and marketers isto design PV systems so that they can bepurchased by large numbers of end-use

customers, and installed, operated, andmaintained safely and cost-efficiently.

Exhibit 7. Growth of Major Photovoltaic Applications (1980-1998)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998

PhotovoltaicMarket(MWp/Year)

Consumer Indoor

Grid-Connected/Gov't Demo

Remote Commercial Power

134.8*

114.5

82.6

71

6155.753.7

48.242.7

37.931.5

24.921

18.717.414.9

7.75.33.3

*Preliminary

Grid-Connected

MWp 1.2 1.5 2.4 7.5 5.7 3.6 1.5 1.1 1.3 1.5 2.8 4.1 3.6 4.0 11.2 9.0 11.7 39.3 42

Exhibit 8. DU Technologies

n Distributed Generation- wind generation - photovoltaics- fuel cells - reciprocating engines- combustion turbines - thermal electric generators- Stirling engines (solar, natural gas hybrid, cogen)

n Distributed Storage- flywheels - SMES- batteries - supercapacitors- thermal - hydrogen

n Customer Energy Efficiency and DSM

n Enabling Technologies


WORKSHOP STRUCTURE

In closing the Plenary Session, Rich Scheer of Energetics, Incorporated, reviewed the agenda forthe Roadmap Workshop and described the process that would be used. The core of theworkshop agenda was a series of professionally facilitated breakout sessions, one for eachTechnology Development Area. Four parallel work groups of eight to ten people each met for 4hours to analyze a specific set of issues related to achieving a strong PV industry in the future. The Technology Development Areas included 1) Markets and Applications, 2) PV Components,Systems, and Applications, 3) PV Manufacturing, and 4) Fundamental and Applied Research andDevelopment. Mr. Scheer introduced the Energetics facilitators for each breakout group(Exhibit 9).

Mr. Scheer then reviewed the workshop process, including the purpose, scope, and structure forthe breakout sessions (Exhibit 10). He emphasized that the results of the workshop wouldprovide a major technical input to development of the Photovoltaics Industry Roadmap and thatadditional information, analysis, and inputs would be required to fully develop the Roadmap.

Exhibit 9. Breakout Session Facilitators Markets and ApplicationsPV Components, Systems, and ApplicationsPV ManufacturingFundamental and Applied Research and Development

Jan BrinchRich ScheerMelissa EichnerPaula Taylor


Exhibit 10. Workshop Format and Process

Purpose

This workshop was part of an effort by the photovoltaics industry to develop a technology roadmap for achievingidentified market, component, manufacturing, and research goals established by the NCPV Advisory Board. Thepurpose of the workshop was to

• identify critical system requirements and their targets;• specify technology drivers and their targets;• identify technology alternatives and their timelines; and• recommend technology alternatives that should be pursued.

The results of the workshop will be used directly in the development of the PV Industry Roadmap. When completed,this roadmap will provide a complete picture of the near-, mid-, and long-term needs of the photovoltaics industry.

Format and Scope

The workshop was a 3-day facilitated meeting that brought together technical and marketing experts from the PVindustry and related organizations to identify research, development, and marketing needs and priorities throughinteractive discussion.

• The scope of the workshop included both technology and market solutions.• Participants considered research, development, and market solutions that address near- (0–3 years), mid-

(3–10 years), and long-term (beyond 10 years) industry needs.• The workshop did not result in recommendations for funding specific RD&D projects. Instead, it produced

sets of RD&D options based on judgements of technical and market needs.

Workshop Structure

The workshop was a product-oriented meeting in which participants had active roles. The workshop consisted ofthree separate sessions spread over 3 days. Each session is described below:

Plenary Session: Representatives from the NCPV and from the PV industry provided an overview of the roadmapprocess and described the vision for the U.S. PV industry, as well as directions, goals and targets articulated in theIndustry-Developed PV Roadmap, A Framework for U.S. Industry and Technology Leadership. Presentations werealso given on financing and marketing PV, as well as the role of photovoltaics in the distributed generationmarketplace. The session also included instructions for the breakout groups and a description of the workshopprocess.

Breakout Sessions: The participants were divided into four smaller groups that met separately to address technologyand market issues related to the PV industry. These four groups, Markets and Applications, PV Components,Systems, and Integration, Manufacturing Equipment and Processes, and Fundamental and Applied Research, begantheir deliberations by discussing the vision and goals outlined in the Industry-Developed PV Roadmap. Each groupthen discussed the scientific, technical, institutional, and market barriers that stand in the way of reaching the visionand goals. Participants were then asked to discuss and rank possible initiatives that could overcome these barriers,and to segment these initiatives into an appropriate time frame, (near, medium, and long term). Following thesediscussions, the groups discussed anticipated roles for industry, government, and/or academic institutions insupporting selected activities, and the interrelationships among the activities.

Summary Session: All workshop participants convened to hear concise summaries of the results of each breakoutgroup. After each presentation group members fielded questions and engaged in a discussion of the findings. At theconclusion of the presentations, each individual had an opportunity to provide concluding remarks and suggest nextsteps.


Markets and Applications

he purpose of this breakout session wasto discuss barriers to successful marketsfor photovoltaics and actions that

industry and other institutions andorganizations should take to hasten theexpansion of PV by the year 2020. Participants in the breakout group wereasked to discuss key targets of opportunityfor PV technology in building, industry, andinstitutional markets, technology barriers thatstand in the way of reaching those markets,and research or other needs that couldimprove market implementation of PV.

Due to time limitations, the discussionin this group focused primarily on“marketing” PV, rather than on the specificmarkets or applications for PV techno-logies. Future study on the markets andapplications for grid-tied systems (end-useropportunities, investment options),distributed generation, and DC and ACvalue-power, need to take place.

As shown in Exhibit 11, the participants inthis breakout session represented a cross-section of industry interests with a stake inimproving markets for PV technologies.

PV VISION AND GOALS

Focus Question 1: How do the vision andgoals expressed in the PV IndustryFramework document relate to markets andapplications? Do the goals and targets needto be modified?

Members of the Markets and ApplicationsBreakout Session discussed the stated visionand goals. The group determined thatalthough they need additional validation andrefinement by the PV Roadmap SteeringCommittee, which had earlier formulatedthem, further investment of time indiscussing the vision and goals at this

roadmap workshop would be unproductive. Thus the group decided to accept the visionand goals as presented.

The group did, however, make a number ofimportant points for consideration by theNCPV Advisory Board and the PV RoadmapSteering Committee. The group expressed theopinion that the vision and goals areinconsistent; while the vision is directedexpressly to U.S. markets, the goals speak toboth U.S. and international markets. If a 50/50U.S./international market split is going to beattained, the vision must address non-U.S.markets as well. Participants discussed thefeasibility of attaining the cost goals asdescribed in the Industry-Developed PVRoadmap and determined that the only way toaccomplish these goals is with a more activegovernment PV program.

The group discussed the reality of the$3/watt cost goal (end-user cost, includingpower conditioning and O&M) for the year2010. Recognizing that the installed cost of

T Exhibit 11Participants

Markets and ApplicationsBreakout Session

PARTICIPANTS ORGANIZATIONClay Aldrich Siemens Solar

Gerry Braun BP Solarex

Tom Dinwoodie PowerLight

Joe Iannucci Distributed Utility

Chris Sherring PVI Photovoltaics International

Mike Stern UPG Golden Genesis

Jerry Ventre Florida Solar Energy Center

Howard Wenger AstroPower

FACILITATOR: Jan Brinch, Energetics, IncorporatedNOTE TAKER: Jen Ryan, Energetics, IncorporatedTECHNICAL ADVISORS: Larry Kazmerski, NCPV Richard King, DOE


PV may need to be less than $3/watt, thegroup discussed market drivers for renew-able energy at that or other price points. Itstill remains to be seen what customers willpay for renewable energy, althoughaccording to recent surveys, customers maybe willing to pay more for “green” power.

The group recommended that the final reportmore clearly define the mix of PV appli-cations; e.g., AC distributed generation forcommercial/residential rooftop systems, ACgrid generation for larger power systems,and DC and AC for off-grid systems.

BARRIERS TO MARKET ACCEPTANCEOF PV

Focus Question 2: What scientific/technical,institutional, and market barriers stand inthe way of reaching the goals and targets ofthe Industry-Developed PV RoadmapDocument?

The Markets and Applications BreakoutGroup discussed a number of barriers thatstand in the way of reaching the goals andtargets expressed in the vision document. Each barrier was grouped into one of fivecategories: Consumer Awareness andEducation; Government/Legislative/Regulatory; Industry; Technical; andFinancial, as illustrated in Exhibit 12.

From a consumer perspective, the majorbarrier standing in the way of successfulmarket penetration for PV systems is a lackof awareness and understanding of how PVbenefits buyers’ own self-interest, and howPV systems work, perform over time, andneed to be maintained. The technologyneeds to be Asold@ like any other electricalproduct, so consumers can compare PVproduct options with other consumerproducts used for similar purposes.

Many government, legislative, and regulatorybarriers stem from changes occurring in the

electric utility industry. Deregulation instates across the country is creating concernsabout stranded assets, standby charges,interconnection require-ments, and netmetering. Individuals and organizations whoinstall PV systems need to feel confident thatthey will not be financially Apunished@ withhigh standby and interconnection charges. They also need to feel confident that theirdistribution utility will work cooperativelywith them to allow grid connections. Government policies need to be consistentthroughout each political jurisdiction tominimize bureaucracy and standardize end-user incentives. In this way, government’spast singular focus on R&D will broaden toinclude commercialization.

From an industry perspective, barriersinclude the lack of a profitable distributioninfrastructure, as well as few wholesale andretail avenues for the purchase of PVsystems. Breakout Group membersdiscussed the need for a “Home Depot”approach to marketing PV. Consumers needto be able to purchase PV components andsystems in much the same way they purchaseother appliances.

The PV industry is too focused on techno-logy as opposed to profitability. This mustchange. And while numerous states areencouraging and even providing incentivesfor consumers to purchase green energy, theprocess for doing so is relatively immature. As a result, brand name recognition andpricing are developing on a rather ad hocbasis in states across the country, causingconfusion and sometimes irresponsible salestechniques.

Technical barriers are primarily cost related.The price of PV systems is still too high,compared with competing electricitygeneration and distribution methods. Otherissues such as aesthetics, storage, anduneven quality standards are important, butpale in comparison to the need to bring downsystem costs. Financial barriers are


intertwined with technical barriers, in thatthey relate to the high costs for PV systems.Financing PV, as compared with lower-costalternatives, is a major financial barrier; untilthe cost of manufacturing, distributing,selling, and maintaining PV systems goesdown, consumers will not purchase anduse them.

Group members focused almost exclusivelyon barriers standing in the way of U.S.markets for PV; they did not focus muchattention on international markets. However, members agreed that foreigngovernments that support PV technologies inother countries through “tied aid” provide amajor disincentive to U.S. industries. U.S.PV companies that seek to market thetechnology in other countries are doing sowithout financial support from the U.S.government. Without increased attention tothe non-U.S. market, the vision and goals ofthe PV Roadmap Document will not be met.


Exhibit 12. Barriers to PV Markets and Applications♦♦ = Top Priority

ConsumerAwareness and

Education

Government/Legislative/Regulatory

Industry Technical Financial

Lack of consumerawareness andunderstanding of PVbenefits and availability♦♦♦♦♦♦♦

Current focus on sellingtechnology, notcommercialization♦

Consumer fears relatedto performance,reliability, andenvironmental impacts

Consumer skepticismbased on past history andreputation of solarenergy

Product not “user-friendly”

Constantly updatedtechnology – consumerswait for next “betteridea”

Need for homeownertraining

Consumer reluctance topurchase non-standardsystems

Barriers resulting fromelectric utilityderegulation♦♦♦♦♦- Disincentives net

against metering- Stranded assets- Standby charges

Uncertain or negativeinterconnectionstandards♦♦♦♦

Government policybarriers related to PV♦♦♦♦- Inconsistent- Bureaucratic- Lack of incentives- Needs to be

coordinated withindustry

PV lacks political“strength/muscle”♦♦

Subsidized non-solaroptions♦♦

Negative tax policies♦

Other governments’“tied aid”♦

Unfocused use of U.S.government informationto international markets♦

Politics of funding ininfancy period- Import/export duties- Unreasonable building

code requirements- Lack of positive

codes/covenants- Political barriers

Lack of profitabledistributioninfrastructure♦♦♦- Sales and service

Lack of purchasingchannels♦♦♦

Immature/inconsistentgreen selling/marketingprograms♦♦

Immature sales chain♦

Incomplete geographicalcoverage♦

Uncertain availability ofproduct supply/capacity

Uneven qualitystandards

System costs♦♦♦♦♦♦

Lack of solar resourceknowledge♦

Manufacturers nottaking advantage of“enabling technologies”

System aesthetics

Equipment theft

Lack of low cost storage

Uneven qualitystandards

Lack of attractivefinancing for PV systems♦♦♦

Lower cost electricityalternatives♦♦♦

Mobility of home ownersleading to high life-cyclecosts

Costs associated with re-roofing

System transaction costs

Foreign competition


KEY ACTIONS TO OVERCOME PV MARKETBARRIERS

Focus Question 3: What are the keyresearch, development, and demonstrationneeds which should be taken to overcomethese barriers? Which of these needsrequire attention in the short-term (0–3years), mid-term (3–10 years), and long-term (>10 years)?

The Markets and Applications BreakoutGroup re-phrased this focus question toaddress key actions that need to be taken toovercome identified barriers. Action itemswere segmented into the same categories asbarriers, as shown in Exhibit 13, and all wereidentified as having to take place in the 0–3year range, although they will certainlycontinue throughout the next 10 years.

In the area of awareness and education,alliances with other groups are needed tosponsor education programs about PVtechnologies and applications for potentialend users. Such groups as the DistributedPower Coalition of America (DPCA) and theNational Association of Energy ServicesCompanies (NAESCO) could be potentiallyuseful partners in education, training, andtechnology application of photovoltaics inthe residential, commercial, industrial, andinstitutional sectors.

The group also identified the need to makePV (as well as solar thermal) a part ofeducational curricula throughout theformalized educational system in thiscountry. In much the same way as recyclinghas become popular in large part because ofchildren's exposure to the need and processin schools, solar energy needs to be taught aspart of an energy curriculum. Children willthen pass on their knowledge and comfortwith the technology to their parents, andbecome educated consumers as they grow toadulthood.

Other educational activities, includingdevelopment of PV customer “successstories,” conduct of public service andmarketing campaigns, and other steps thatraise PV awareness and understandingare necessary.

In the field of government, legislative, andregulatory activity, the Markets andApplications Group identified a number ofkey actions. At the top of the list is the needto clarify and publicize the results ofinaction—what happens if government,legislative, and regulatory action is not takento assist the PV market. Equal attentionneeds to be taken to adopt nationalinterconnection standards; to removedisincentives, such as standby charges andcustomer retention fees; to provide con-sistent, multiple-year federal funding forresearch, development, and demonstration;and to develop a program that matchesRD&D funding levels to these priorities. Discussion ensued on the industry’s focus onconsistent federal funding, while consistentsales goals did not appear to be of greatconcern. Industry needs to define themagnitude of federal funding and sales goalsto reach the goals of the PV RoadmapDocument.

Other actions were identified, includingestablishment of incentives for commercialPV use, such as a 25% state tax credit;federal matching of state incentives;renewable portfolio standards; developmentof effective competitive tools to counter“tied aid;” and adoption of national netmetering legislation. Additional actions areshown in Exhibit 13.

In terms of industry actions, the Markets andApplications Group believes that the PVindustry must take a lead role in achievingthe transition to PV market acceptance. Thegroup supports creation of a traditional,professional, industry-funded tradeassociation, separate and apart from anyexisting industry association. Such a trade


group should speak with a “common voice”on behalf of the PV industry. The groupshould be independent and bipartisan,perform lobbying activities, providemarketing services, conduct policy studies,and serve the PV industry’s interests. Breakout Group members agreed that amore extensive discussion needs to takeplace with other interest groups to determinethe next steps toward forming such anindustry association. One member drew apinwheel diagram, symbolizing the need tostart such a PV industry association, whichwould in turn lead to improved support forcommercialization, which would lead to agrowth in revenues, and a growth in industrydues, resulting in improved success for theassociation.

Other industry actions identified includedspending more money on marketing,specifically “green marketing” in deregulatedmarkets; developing ESCO alliances;developing “plug and play” technologies;developing national training and certificationprograms for system installers; and achievingquality control at all levels of productdevelopment, marketing, installation, andmaintenance.

In the area of technical actions, the groupagreed that a true market exists for PV butthat the industry needs to look outside the

U.S. and be able to sell complete solutions inorder to expand abroad. Other action itemsinclude developing strategies for reducingnon-hardware costs, such as installation andmaintenance, and providing incentives formanufacturers to develop more reliableproducts.

Financial actions suggested included creationof long-term, low-interest financing forinstallation of PV in a variety of applications;establishment of price points geared tomarket segments; and 0% mortgagefinancing subsidized by a highway tax andlinked to carbon emissions reductions.

The group discussed actions that need to betaken to address international marketbarriers. Mass deployments of small PVsystems in a concentrated region, togetherwith necessary infrastructure improvements,may be a cost-effective model forelectrification in remote regions of the world. However, some group members believe thatgovernment should not play a role in such adeployment strategy; others believe thatgovernment should play a more active role,despite past problems with government-sponsored international activities. Respectedgovernment agencies can work in industry’sfavor. Therefore, increased attention shouldbe focused on the government’s role ininternational business development activities.


Exhibit 13. Key Actions to Overcome PV Market Barriers♦♦ = Top Priority

Consumer Awarenessand Education

Government/Legislative/Regulatory

Industry Technical Financial

Develop alliances withother groups to sponsorconsumer educationprograms♦♦♦♦- DPCA- NAESCO

Make solar a part ofscience curricular“standards of learning”♦♦♦

Evaluate PV from acustomer viewpoint

Develop PV customer“success stories”

Conduct intensive publicservice campaign

Install PV public andinstitutional buildings toserve as demonstrations

Clarify and publicize resultsof inaction♦♦♦♦

Adopt nationalinterconnection standards♦♦

Remove disincentives, e.g.,standby charges, customerretention fees♦♦

Provide consistent multipleyear federal funding♦♦

Develop a program plan thatmatches funding levels tothese priorities♦♦

Create incentives forcommercial PV use, such as- 25% state tax credit- Federal matching of state

incentive program- RPS- System Benefits Change

Develop effective competitivetools to counter foreign-based “tied aid.”♦

Develop a clean slate for PV♦

Adopt national net meteringlegislation♦

Improve PV distributioninfrastructure

Gather good solar datathroughout the world

Intervene in state regulatoryand legislative decision-making

Tie incentives and subsidiesto emissions reductions

Provide state incentives forutilities to offer PVinstallations

Develop and communicatecredible market scenarios toconsumers

Create an effectiveindustry coalition byforming a traditional,professional, industry-funded trade association♦♦♦♦♦♦♦♦- Bi-partisan- “Swat” team- Lobbying activities- PV marketing board- Policy writing- Technical analysis of

competing andcomplementary electricgenerating systems

Spend more money onmarketing♦♦♦- Green pricing

Develop ESCO alliances♦♦

Develop “plug and play”PV technologies♦

Develop national trainingand certification programfor system installers♦

Achieve quality control atall levels♦

Develop task list forNREL to perform abroad♦

Achieve 100% productreliability

Sell complete servicesolutions♦♦

Develop strategies forreducing non-hardwarecosts♦

Strive for consistentsuccess inimplementing largenumbers of roof topsystems

Provide incentives tomanufacturers todevelop more reliableproducts

Create long-term low-interest financing forPV♦♦♦♦

Establish price pointsgeared to marketsegments♦

Offer zero percentmortgage financing♦- Subsidized by

highway tax- Linked to carbon

emissions reductions


PRIORITY ACTION ITEMS, PATHWAYS, ANDTIMEFRAMES

Focus Question 4: How best should theseresearch, development, and demonstrationneeds be addressed? What linkages existamong the needs identified by the Marketsand Applications Group?

As illustrated in Exhibit 14, the Markets andApplications Group identified a progressionof actions that should be taken to enhancephotovoltaic technologies and applicationsinto the 21st century. The PV industry mustdevelop an organizational approach, becomeinvolved in regulatory activities, enhance the

sale and marketing of PV components andsystems, create and enhance internationalmarketing opportunities, more activelycommercialize the technology, and educateconsumers about PV. Group members re-stated the action items identified inExhibit 13, and identified performers(industry alone, government alone, industry-government partnership, and/or academiainvolvement). The progression of activitiesshould take place within a 0–3-yeartimeframe, understanding that although thereis an urgency to undertaking action, many ofthese activities will extend through the year2010 and beyond.


Exhibit 14. Top Priority Action Items, Pathways, and Timeframes(All 0-3 Year Timeframe)

OrganizationalApproach

Regulatory Actions Sales andMarketing

International Commercializa-tion

Education

Develop traditional,professional, bi-partisan industry-funded tradeassociation(I)

Provide opportunityfor industry to speak with a “commonvoice”- Fund “swat”

teams- Write policy- Lobby for PV- Analyze

complementarytechnologies

- Establish PVmarketing board

- Conductmarketingcampaign: “GotPV?”

Develop allianceswith other groupsfor consumerawareness andeducation (I)- NAESCO- DPCA

Develop andcommunicatecredible marketscenarios (I)- Clarify how PV

benefits buyers’self-interest andwhat happens ifactions are nottaken

Adopt nationalinterconnectionstandards- Support IEEE Sec

21, etc.- Lobby states,

EEI, and utilitiesto adopt IEEEstandards

Removedisincentives, e.g.,standby charges,customer retentionfees, etc. (I/G)- Lobby for PV

exemption fromstandby, CTCs, upto a limited # ofMW

- Educate NARUC,and stateregulatorycommissions toenhance PValternatives in newderegulatedmarket

Increase sales andmarketing budgets(I)- Market benefits of

PV to potentialend-users

Sell completeservice solutions (I)

Identify targetedend-users for PVapplicationsidentified in Visiondocument (grid-tiedsystems, distributedgeneration, andDC/AC valueapplications) (I/G)

Develop effectivecompetitive tools tocounter “tied aid”(I/G)- Grow both

national andinternationalmarkets to reachvision and goals

Develop task list forNREL to performabroad (G)

Develop PVGAPabroad (G)

Provide appropriategovernmentsubsidies forenhanced PVmarket (G)

Improvecommercialization strategy (I/G)- Establish effective

RPS at bothfederal and statelevels

- Consider 25%federal/state taxcredits

- Offer financialincentives, e.g.,SBC for PVR,D,&D (G)

Encourageconsistent multiple-year federal funding(G)

Consider offeringlong-term low-interest financing forappropriate, easilyintegrated, reliablePV systems (G)

Make solar (thermaland PV) a part ofscience standards oflearning (A/G)- Improve

curriculumdevelopment

- Develop teachingmaterials

- Encourageadoption by statedepartments of education

I = IndustryG = GovernmentA = AcademiaI/G = Industry-Government Partnership


PV Components, Systemsand Integration

he purpose of the Components, Systems,and Integration breakout session was to

discuss the fabrication, installation, andservicing of photovoltaic systems in retrofitapplications and new construction. Includedin the scope are both stand-alone and gridconnected systems. The goals of thebreakout session group were to:

• Discuss the draft vision and goals andobtain “customized” comments

• Identify top priority scientific,engineering, technical, and institutionalbarriers facing photovoltaic components,systems, and integration in achieving thevision and goals

• Identify top priority research,development, and demonstration(RD&D) needs in overcoming thebarriers and achieving the goals

• Identify the time frames (near, mid, andlong term) and performers (industry,government, industry-governmentpartnerships) for the top priorityRD&D needs.

Participants in this breakout session are listedin Exhibit 15.

VISION AND GOALS

Focus Question 1: How can the vision andgoals expressed in the PV IndustryFramework be “customized” to include thechallenges and opportunities facing PVcomponents, systems, and integration?

The group agreed that the vision statementdoes not define the kind of product andmarket the PV industry will be targeting inthe year 2020. The vision needs to cover thefuture of PV systems in which they are likely

to be sold as both “refrigerator-like”packaged systems for building owners andoccupants and as power systems for gridconnected applications.

In addition, members of the group felt thatthe vision needs to provide a “picture” ofhow PV systems will be incorporated intobuildings and utility systems as if a homevideotape were to be made in the year 2020.The vision needs to show PV systemsinstalled on rooftops of new and existingbuildings, incorporated into the designs ofnew buildings, providing services to remoteand stand-alone applications, andinterconnected to utility systems.

The group observed that the vision calls formoving the industry from installing 500 to 2million units per year in the United States. Though this focus is on the United Statesmarket, the international market remains vitaland should also be reflected in the vision. Toincrease the sales and use of PV, installationand operation and maintenance costs will be


Components, Systems, and IntegrationBreakout Session

PARTICIPANTS ORGANIZATIONHans Meyer Omnion

Paul Wormser Solar Design Associates

Chuck Whitaker PVUSA

Steve Chalmers PowerMark

Jito Coleman Northern Power

John Wiles SWTDI

FACILITATOR: Rich Scheer, Energetics, IncorporatedNOTE TAKER: Joseph Philip, Energetics, IncorporatedTECHNICAL ADVISOR: Chris Cameron, NCPV


an issue, but the vision should includeconsumers who also value PV for the non-economic benefits. Seeking to achieve“lowest cost” systems should not be the onlyfocus. Flexibility and service will be a keycomponent to selling PV products on themarket.

The vision should include “Green E” stickersdisplayed in home windows indicating that aportion of the home’s electricity is suppliedby solar energy. PV systems need to bewidely understood and available toresidential and commercial users, andserviced by contractors familiar with systeminstallation and operations.

Participants in this group felt that the goalsfrom the framework document shouldprovide a benchmark for manufacturers. However, such goals may not reflect theneeds of PV customers. For example,potential PV customers do not base theirbuying decisions on cost metrics such as$3/W in 2010 and $1.50/W in 2020, butrather value the non-economic benefits ofPV systems. Nevertheless, the vision shouldinclude cost goals for electricity, such as10 cents/kWh in 2010 and 5 cents/kWhin 2020.

Group members agreed that goals should beadded that address the future market for PVsystems and services. For example, goals toequip 10% of all new buildings and 1 millionof existing buildings each year by 2020 withPV systems could be added. To achievethese goals, PV would have to be packagedas a “market-ready” product with the utilityinfrastructure capable of supporting “plugand play” applications. Systems will have tobe designed so that building owners andoccupants in the future will enjoy thearchitectural styles associated with PVsystems and that they will be fully integratedinto the future built environment. PVsystems will be installed in homes and othertypes of buildings like plumbing, wiring, andother common building systems are routinely

installed today. Architects and builders willneed the skills and tools to incorporate PVinto their designs.

BARRIERS

Focus Question 2: What scientific,engineering, technical, institutional, andmarket barriers stand in the way of reachingthe vision and goals for PV components,systems, and integration?

A list of the ideas raised during the dis-cussion of barriers may be found in Exhibit16. While some barriers are technology-related, many involve customer and publicpolicy issues. There is, for example, a lackof fundamental understanding of the optimalapproaches for designing, fabricating, andinstalling PV components and systems. Existing systems experience some reliabilityproblems and are not yet maintenance free,despite claims to the contrary. One of thehighest priority barriers is the high cost ofcell modules. Lower cost modules willreduce overall system costs, increasingpotential market.


Exhibit 16Barriers Facing PV Components, Systems, and Integration

♦ = Top Priority

Customers Economics Procurement Codes &Standards

Public Policies Technology Standardiza-tion

Uninformed buyers♦♦♦♦♦- Too much talk of

kW for Joneses’(gives them aheadache)

- Need to reducetechnical jargon

- Consumers haveunrealizedexpectations

- Absence of gradeschool educationprogram

Lack of early adopters♦- Lack of “Joneses”

Unattractive,appearance notappealing to consumers♦

Need to provideflexible componentsand systems, which canbe easily maintainedand serviced

Incorrect perceptionthat they aremaintenance free

Other solar systemsdidn’t work

Lack of low interestcapital♦

High non-hardwaretransaction costs♦♦

Competingtechnologies♦

Lack of mortgage,tax deductions forPV♦

Difficulty inmoving from smallto large industry

O&M costs too highespecially for smallsystems

Insurance industrydoes not understandPV

Absence of pollution credit forPV

Lack of localinfrastructure(dealers, etc.)♦♦♦- No one local

source for buyingPV componentsand systems

Most tradesuniformed, e.g.,inspectors/ permitters

Lack of technicalstandards for PVproducts♦♦

No standardmethod to verifysystemperformance

Codes andstandards difficultto set for varyingPV systems andsizes

Difficultinterconnection♦

Utility policiesand businesspractices♦

Subdivisionhousing designdoes not considerPV ♦

Net metering notuniversallyavailable♦

Need to reachmass marketthrough BIPVwith architecturalintegration

Restrictivecovenants/ codesat subdivisionlevel

Lack of HUDacceptance forPV

No subsidies

High cell/ modulecosts♦♦♦♦♦

Systems not reliableenough now♦♦- Not maintenance

free

Lack of awareness ofcompeting/complementarytechnologies♦♦

Lack of fundamentalunderstanding of PVbasic science♦

Lack of display (“PVthermostat”) ♦

Hard to install- Retrofit difficulties- Difficult roof

mounts

Low conversionefficiency

Cost of magnetics

Specific requirementsfor wire andconnectors

Lack of cheap,reliable energystorage- load and resource

not designedtogether

Lack of standardproducts, packages, andservice offerings♦♦♦- Each

installation aspecial case

- Need “plug &play”

Not geared formass production


RD&D NEEDS

Focus Question 3: What are the keyresearch, development, and demonstrationneeds in PV components, systems, andintegration that should be taken to overcomethese barriers and achieve the visionand goals?

RD&D needs discussed by the group areillustrated in Exhibit 17.

The group agreed that manufacturers need todevelop improved, reliable systems andcomponents with lower installed costs, andthat require less maintenance than units soldtoday. To address the new constructionmarket, manufacturers will need to instituteprograms with architects and buildingdesigners so that packaged systems can bedeveloped and marketed on a mass basis topotential residential and commercial users.This will require new research efforts todesign PV systems and components that canbe integrated into roof systems, walls, andother building features, and that may beinterconnected to support local powersystem requirements.

Improvements in system reliability willenable PV to be more attractive to potentialusers. Another important near term RD&Dneed involves wiring systems for curtain wallapplications. Additional needs includebuilding products that use PV, such asroofing tiles, that are equal to or better thanexisting products. The development of largearea thin-film modules will also assistarchitects, building designers, and owners. New and innovative methods for packagingcells for different applications will not onlyimprove the potential for PV systems inbuilding markets but will also help PV inother markets such as remote power andtelecommunications applications.

New efforts to build a PV infrastructure arealso needed. This infrastructure will make iteasier for consumers to select, finance,monitor, and maintain PV systems, both fornew construction and retrofit applications.

R&D is required to facilitate interconnectionand operations. If “plug and play” modesare to become a reality, PV systems thatprovide AC power at lower cost thansystems do today are needed. In addition,integrated units that include storage will haveto be developed and marketed to users. Forexample, the integration of PV with storagesystems (e.g. batteries, flywheels, andsuperconducting magnetic energy storage)and/or with grid back-up power supplies willenhance potential uses of the technology.Innovative magnetic/topology for powerelectronics will need to be conducted, andfault tolerant systems need to be developed.

PV installation technologies also need to beimproved if they are to reach a wider market.For example, the development of modulemounting systems would make it easier toinstall PV on rooftops. Leak-proofmounting systems that are reliable, easyto install, and lower in cost than today’ssystems are needed to expand thePV market.

PV systems that involve lower transactioncosts need to be developed. These systemswould include "pre-approved" andstandardized product packages thatconsumers would be able to purchasecommercially from a variety of suppliers.These systems would be installed with aminimal amount of permitting and “hassle,”certainly much less than is currently requiredfor the typical grid-connected PVinstallation.

Even with successful development of PVsystems and components, an infrastructurewill need to be in place for installing andservicing these systems. This infrastructure


must make it easier for customers to buy anduse PV. Efforts are needed to expose PVproducts to customers, installers, servicingcompanies, financiers, and others in thesupply chain. Training for designers,installers, builders, architects, and approvalauthorities and inspectors is also necessaryso that they know how to incorporate PVinto their designs and buildings.

U.S. manufacturers need to continue tomonitor market developments overseas.National and international PV standards needto be developed to make it easier formanufacturers, regulatory agencies, andconsumers to design, permit, purchase, andinstall PV products. Interconnectionstandards need to be finalized to lower thecost of connecting PV systems to the grid.

Research on the integration of PV with otherdistributed generation and storagetechnologies is needed. New PV componentsand systems may also be needed in the designof hybrid systems that could involve fossilpower systems and battery storagetechnologies. Such hybrid systems couldexpand potential markets for PVtechnologies.


Exhibit 17PV Components, Systems, and Integration RD&D Needs

♦ = Top Priority

Standards Education &Awareness

GovernmentAction

BOS Issues Demonstrationand Testing

Studies &Analysis

Module Issues System Issues

National &internationalstandards for PVproducts andcomponents♦♦- Ratings &

verificationtools forappropriatesizes

Qualificationtests for allcomponents♦

Nationalinterconnectionstandards♦

Expedite listings

Wider publicexposure toproducts andtheir value♦♦♦- Advertise PV

Training fordesigners,installers,builders,architects♦

Educate PVindustry onsystemintegration

Increaseexperience ofPV systemengineers

Adequate fundingfor PV♦

Consider PV for allgovernmentbuildings

Long-termcommitment

Innovativemagnetic/topologypowerelectronics ♦

Consumervalue meter,feedback tocustomervisually

PV BOS thatlooks likeconventionalelectronicsystems

Silentinverters

Betterinverter thathandles thinfilm andeasier to fix

Demonstrateexamples ofgood buildingintegration♦♦

Quantification ofexternalities ♦♦

Compare systemsusing module,string, or systeminverters♦

Enhanceunderstanding ofcell physics♦

Focus on holisticview of DG♦- Understand

competitivetechnology

- Look forsynergies andalliances withothertechnologies

Understandcompetitorsoverseas♦

Identify 20-30year systems.What are the life-cycle costs?

FCC regsspecific to PVsystems

Review existingPV technologyand develop newtechnologies forstandardization

Develop newmarkets,applications

Preferred value-added buildingproducts using PV♦♦♦- Enhanced PV

products e.g.,PV/thermal

Large-area thin-film modules♦

Innovative/ novelcell packaging♦

Wiring systemsfor curtain wallapplications♦

Commercialbuilding productsflexible forarchitects♦- Colored cells

New sources ofsilicon

Flexible, highspeedmanufacturing

Eliminate junctionbox

Flexible sizingandinterconnection ofmodules

Reliability♦♦

Develop “AC Systems”♦♦

Cost & ease ofmaintenance♦♦- PV products that

accommodatebuildingmaintenance

- Highly reliable zero-paid maintenance PVsystems

Fault tolerance systems♦

Low transaction costsystems “preapproved”♦

Utility interconnectedsystems with storage ♦- Integrate PV with

UPS systems- Low maintenance

grid back-up

Module mountingsystems♦- Residential rooftop

mounting &installation

- Good, cheap, easy toinstall leakproofmounting systems

Fire-awareness design

Reduce costs ofcomponents & systemsmanufacturing

Shade tolerancesystems

Standardize flexibledesigns

Packaged PV poweredapplications


LINKAGES

Question 4: How best should these research,development, and demonstration needs beaddressed? What linkages exist among theneeds identified?

The discussion of linkages, timeframes, andperformers emphasized that all efforts needto include participation from both industryand government. Major efforts are needed ininfrastructure development, buildingintegration, and systems research. Thegovernment will need to take the lead ondeveloping an infrastructure favorable to PVwith help from industry. Industry will berequired to lead efforts in building inte-gration; systems research will require anaggressive partnering relationship.

To develop an infrastructure requires theacceptance of PV by the public. Thisincludes training the necessary trades tonaturally integrate PV into buildings.Government agencies should take the lead tocreate national standards for interconnectionof PV products and distributed generation. Government, with the help of industry, can

remove obstacles to the integration of PVinto the power market.

Industry must then develop marketableproducts that integrate easily into adeveloping infrastructure. Buildingintegration of PV is one important exampleof the type of technology development thatwill add value to PV products. Givingarchitects and builders a number of flexibleproducts to choose from will make it easierfor the technology to be adopted. Innovativeand novel use of PV will be a key inselling it.

However, PV technology will not survive ifit doesn't prove itself in the field. PVsystems will have to be extremely reliable. Ifsystem maintenance is costly and difficult, itis unlikely that the technology will beadopted. PV systems will not only have tobe inexpensive and easy to install but alsolow maintenance. Industry will need to leadthe development of better components andsystems. But government can help inestablishing qualification tests for allcomponents that help ensure reliability of allPV systems.


Exhibit 18. Linkages, Timeframes and PerformersPV Components, Systems, and Integration

< 3 years 3- 10 years >10 yearsInfrastructure - Training for designers,

installers, builders, architects.(G/I)

- Wider public exposure toproducts & values (G/I)

- Understand competitorsoverseas (I/G)

- National & international standards for PVproducts (G/I)

- Focus on holistic view of DG (I/G)- National interconnect standards (G/I)- Quantification of externalities (G/I)

BuildingIntegration

- Wiring systems for curtain wallapplications (I/G)

- Commercial building products flexible forarchitecture (I/G)

- Examples of good building integration (G/I)- Preferred value-added building products

using PV (I/G)- Innovative/novel cell packaging (I/G)- Large area thin-film modules (I/G)

Systems - Reliability (I/G)- Utility interconnected systems

with storage (I/G)- Compare systems using

module, string or systeminverters (G/I)

- Develop "AC systems" (I/G)- Module mounting systems (I/G)- Qualification tests for all

components (G/I)

- Cost & ease of maintenance (I/G)- Innovative magnetic/topology for power

electronics (I/G)- Low transaction cost systems "pre-

approved" (I/G)- Fault tolerant systems (I/G)

- Enhanceunderstanding of cellphysics (G/I)

I/G = Industry/Government Collaboration (Industry-led)G/I = Government/Industry Collaboration (Government-led)


PV Manufacturing

he purpose of this breakout session wasto discuss manufacturing needs toachieve the PV vision. Participants in

the PV Manufacturing Breakout Session,listed in Exhibit 19, representedmanufacturers and researchers of variousthin film and bulk PV materials, includingcells, modules, arrays and systems, as wellas manu-facturers of PV manufacturingequipment.

VISION AND GOALS FOR PV

Focus Question 1: How do the vision andgoals expressed in the PV IndustryFramework document relate tomanufacturing? Do the goals and targetsneed to be modified?

Members of the group concluded that theambitious vision and goals are a reasonablestarting point for the purpose of identifyingmanufacturing barriers and manufacturingneeds for PV. However, the visionstatement should include internationalmarkets to reflect that the vision documentcontains international goals.

The group proposed an amendment to thevision to reflect the opportunity that willexist for communities who manufacture PV.This amendment is shown in Exhibit 20

To determine the impact of the PV vision andgoals on manufacturing, the group estimatedthat significant achievements in output,productivity, and cost reduction are required. These estimates are shown in Exhibit 21. Therequirements for material costs and efficiencyare shown in Exhibit 22. There is concern thatthe required ramp-up rates do not provide timeand incentives for collaboration. The assumedreturn on investment (e.g., EVA, capital cost,etc.) needs to be consistent across the goals.


PV Manufacturing Breakout Session

PARTICIPANTS ORGANIZATION

Bill BottenbergPhotovoltaics International,Inc. (PVI)

Dave Carlson BP Solarex

Maurice Covino Spire

Ghazi Darkazalli GT Solar

Erten Eser IEC

Jim Galica STR

Masat Izu ECD

Terry Jester Siemens Solar

Jim Rand AstroPower

FACILITATOR: MELISSA EICHNER, Energetics, IncorporatedNOTE TAKER: KIM REICHART, Energetics, IncorporatedTECHNICAL ADVISORS: Roland Hulstrom and Tom Surek, NCPV

Exhibit 20Vision Amendment

“PV module manufacturing plants will be soughtafter by every community in the U.S. for providingtens of thousands of jobs that are high-tech with aclean manufacturing environment.”

Exhibit 21Estimated Targets for

Manufacturing Based on theGoals and Visions

• A 40-fold increase in PV modulemanufacturing is needed by 2020

• A 5-fold reduction in modulemanufacturing costs is needed by 2010,and a 10-fold reduction by 2020


BARRIERS TO PV MANUFACTURING

Focus Question 2: What scientific,technical, institutional and market barriersstand in the way of reaching the goal?

The group identified barriers in sevencategories listed below and shown inExhibit 23. Overcoming the barriers in thetop two categories is considered mostimportant to the success of PVmanufacturing.

• Processes/Equipment Need Definition• Process Controls and Scientific

Understanding of Processes Involved• Investment Needed for Scale-up• Too Many Choices (Technology Diversity)• Infrastructure of PV Industry and Use of

Existing Infrastructure• Standards Products/Testing• Do Not Know What Marketing Process Will

Look Like—Long Range Strategies

Overall, the highest priority barriers are thelack of support for advanced equipmentdevelopment, and the lack of knowledge ofhigh throughput process. Other barriersinclude the lack of advanced equipment andbottlenecks in manufacturing throughput.

Process Controls and ScientificUnderstanding of Processes Involved wasconcerned with the lack of basic science,

especially scientific knowledge for in-lineprocess control.

In Investment Needed for Scale-up, thebarriers included lack of investment capital,slim profit margins, small customer base, andinadequate government understanding of therequirements to bring a technology on-line.

The existence of multiple technologiesresults in unfocused investment decisions. PV companies are too invested in their owntechnology, and rely too heavily onproprietary products. Manufacturers areconcerned with the lack of dedicatedsuppliers, inadequate amounts of silicon, andan untrained regional labor force.

The PV industry infrastructure is weak. Duplicate R&D on equipment processes isconducted on different technologies. Products are not integrated into a wholebuilding infrastructure process. Productstandards are inadequate and poorly defined,leading to difficulties in making minormodule changes.

There is no clear vision of what manu-facturing facilities will look like in the21st century. Many difficulties will have tobe overcome to achieve the product andsystem manufacturing goals required toachieve the PV vision, includingstrengthening the infrastructure.

The PV industry needs to develop a modelfor high volume manufacturing. Will the PVmanufacturing plant of the future look like abottle manufacturing plant, a semiconductormanufacturing plant, or something else? The plants of today must be replaced bylarger, more efficient plants with stock, notcustom built, manufacturing equipment. Equipment manufacturers must also be readyto meet the demands of this larger, morerobust industry.

Exhibit 22Material Costs & Efficiency

100

Material Cost $/m2

50

10% Efficiency 20%

Operate inthe lowertriangle


Manufacturers must solve many problems tomeet the production goals, including a steadyflow of affordable silicon; a large trainedworkforce; new large plants capable of highoutput; quality assurance/quality control

methods to quickly and accurately testproducts in situ; a planned distributionnetwork; and enough profit to enticeinvestors.


Exhibit 23. Barriers That Impede PV Manufacturing Processes♦♦ = Top Priority Barrier µµ = High Priority Category «« = Priority Category

Processes/Equipment

Need Definitionµµµµµµµµ««««««

««

ProcessControls,Scientific

Understandingof Processes

Involvedµµ««««««««««

InvestmentNeeded for

Scale upµµ««

Too ManyChoices,

(TechnologyDiversity)µµ

Infrastructure ofPV Industry andUse of ExistingInfrastructure

µµ

StandardProducts/Testingµµ

Do Not KnowWhat

ManufacturingProcess WillLook Like—Long RangeStrategies

Lack of supportinvestment foradvancedequipmentdevelopmentwork♦♦♦♦♦

Lack ofknowledge ofhigh throughputprocess♦♦♦♦

Inadequate highthroughput andhigh efficiencyfor specificapplications♦♦

Bottlenecks inmanufacturingthroughput♦

Lack of specificmanufacturingequipment for theindustry- Now there is a

lack of specificequipment

- In the future,industry shouldhave moregenericequipment

♦

Lack offundamental/scientificknowledge forscale-up♦♦

Inadequate (real-time) processcontrols- Development

of diagnosticsfor in-lineprocesses

- Lack ofQA/QC

♦♦

Lack of basicscience for in-lineprocess control♦♦

Government’sinadequateunderstanding ofwhat it takes tobring technologyon-line – impactsgovernmentinvestment♦♦♦

Lack ofcustomers tosupportequipmentmanufacturers- Transition from

foreign to U.S.customers

♦♦

Internationalcompetition(Japan puttinghigh dollars inPV)♦

Lack of up-frontmoney (i.e.,investmentcapital)- Cannot get

investmentcapital withoutproprietaryproduct

♦

Lack of profit

Not enoughgovernmentincentive to investin technologies

Lack ofconviction to atechnologychoice—havingmultipletechnologies—investmentdecisions are notfocused♦♦♦

Industry wants tocreate everythingthemselves—proprietaryproducts- Companies do

not go outsidetheirorganizationsfordevelopment(not-invented-here syndrome)

- Lack ofacademic andcompanycooperation

♦♦

Struggle adoptingnew technologies♦

Love technologytoo much—eachcompany’s mindset

Infrastructure isweak; duplicateR&D projects todevelop equipmentprocesses--cannotbuy anything inindustry♦♦♦

Integration ofwhole buildinginfrastructureprocess intoproducts- Need business

model to takeadvantage

- Very productspecific

- Make PVproducts thatmeet a specificmarket thatdrivesmanufacturing

♦♦

Not enough rawmaterial (silicon)to support 25% atprice needed withtoday’s technology

No dedicatedmaterial suppliers

Inadequate laborforce (regional)

Cheap, reliableinverters needed

Large distributionsystem needed by2020- Shipment of

materialsneeded—nearmanufacturingsite andsuppliers

- Shipping costscould besignificant

Inadequateproductstandardization--lack of productdefinition♦♦

Difficulty inchanging moduleconfigurations(minor changes)

Lack of rapidscreening ofprototypes

Each companywants specificmaterial—productrequirementsinsufficientlyspecified

Only onequalification test;it’s too rigid, toohigh, may not fitall applications(IEEE/Z&Z)

Hierarchybetween modulesand finishedsystems- Take out a

layer ofmodulehierarchy togain costsavings—needmanufactur-ing technologystrategies to dothis

Scale problem—production nowvs. what will beneeded in 2020♦♦

Lack “picture”of factor in 2020♦

Inadequatecooperation byindustry♦

Lack of longrange view inU.S. industry♦

Not right playersyet inmanufacturingequipment—notin PV game yet

Lack ofmanufacturingmodel--need toprocess largeareas

Environmental-ly consciousmanufacturing,(e.g., meetinglicenserequirements)


ACTIONS/SOLUTIONS TO OVERCOMETHE BARRIERS

Focus Question 3: What are the keymanufacturing needs that should be taken toovercome these barriers? Which of theseneeds should be addressed in the near-term(less than 3 years), mid-term (3-10 years)and long-term (more than 10 years)? Whichorganizations (industry, government oruniversities, or some combination) should beresponsible for confronting these issues? In the real world with limited resources,which of these needs would have thehighest priority?

The group identified manufacturing needs toaddress the barriers in six categories listedbelow and shown in Exhibit 24. Addressingthe needs in the top three categories isconsidered most important to the achievingthe manufacturing goals.

• High Volume Throughput• Process Control and Development• Common Industry Objectives• Low Cost, Reliable Module Testing and

Packaging• New Process Development• Balance of Systems Research

The highest priority is the need for manu-facturing partnerships to work with suppliersto develop the next generation of equipment. This equipment will not be proprietary butshared by all PV manufacturers. Develop-ment of common industry objectives wasalso identified as a key RD&D need.

Diagnostic tools, systems, and processes areneeded for in-situ production optimization. Fundamental research is needed to improvethroughput through process controls.

High-volume equipment demonstrations areneeded to learn more about increasingthroughput and cell processing efficiency,along with continuous processing.

Research is needed to lower the cost ofmodule packaging, improve thin filmpackaging, develop a better understandingof fundamental failure mechanisms, anddevelop high-throughput module assemblyprocesses.

Of the issues that must be confronted tomeet the PV vision goals, the majority arerelated to developing equipment andprocesses for high-volume production or in-situ diagnostic processes, and reducing thecosts of production. Exhibit 25 presents aproposal of who should perform the highestpriority RD&D that is needed and thetimeframe when results can be anticipated. Most of these issues can be addressed byindustry, or industry partnerships withgovernment and/or universities.

Almost all of the manufacturing needs willneed to be addressed within a 0 to10 yeartimeframe to achieve the ambitiousproduction goals of the PV vision. R&Dconsideration for the long-term needs to bemade with guidance from the government,universities, and national laboratories.

Priority should be given to identifyingmanufacturing challenges that are commonamong companies and investing to solvethese issues. A tactical plan is needed thatis market specific, not company specific. To enhance market success, equipmentand manufacturing commonalties needto emerge.


Exhibit 24. Manufacturing Needs♦♦ = Top Priority Barrier µµ = High Priority Category «« = Priority Category

High Volume - HighThroughputµµµµµµ««««««««

Process Control andDevelopmentµµµµµµ««

Common IndustryObjectivesµµ««««««««

Low Cost, ReliableModule Testing and

Packagingµµ««

New ProcessDevelopment

µµ

Balance of SystemsResearch

Equipmentdemonstration at highvolume- 10,000 cells- everyone sees data♦♦♦♦

Need to develop highvolume, highthroughput, highefficiency cellprocesses♦♦♦

Develop continuousprocess (not batch)♦♦♦

Develop lowest costprocesses per W♦

High speed glass andthin sided filmhandling andtransferring equipmentfor in/out processes♦

Transferringequipment

Maintenance toincrease up time

Automating andintegrating processes

Continued work oncell efficiency, basicresearch withmanufacturing focus

Develop fundingsources to make thishappen (investmentsupport)

Joint program withsuppliers to improvequality and reducecosts

Develop compatibleprocesses formanufacturing linesamong manufacturers(equipment)

Diagnostic tools,systems, and processesneed to be developed,on-line and in situ♦♦♦♦♦

Conduct targetedfundamental researchto provide scientificunderstanding ofmanufacturingprocess—diagnostictools and improvedthroughput♦♦

Laser processes--basicscribing of thin films

Continued processmodelingdevelopment

Intelligent processcontrol (IPC) systemsfor manufacturing

Developmanufacturingpartnerships somanufacturers workwith suppliers todevelop the nextgeneration ofequipment that can beshared (will not shareprocesses)- Overarching

organizing body♦♦♦♦♦♦

Identify commonequipment needs♦♦

Make manufacturingequipment for fullproduction—no roomfor developing- Need to prototype

manufacturing—work with PVequipmentmanufacturers todevelop prototypeequipment

♦

Research on highmaterial utilization—resulting in less wastesproduced (design forenvironment)♦

Make equipment thatcan be transferred to>1 manufacturer

report of the photovoltaic (pv) industry roadmap workshop2 pv technology roadmap workshop exhibit 2....

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