report 75.0 - 1 st quarter release -
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Report 75.0 - 1 st Quarter Release -. Johannesburg 14 May 2014. General . Local Developments: Media Inflation Watch Up-date 2013 M edia Inflation Watch revealed Radio as the most aggressive platform from a rate perspective; up 11.54% yoy . - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
Report 75.0- 1st Quarter Release -
Johannesburg14 May 2014
General
Local Developments:
Media Inflation Watch Up-date 2013
Media Inflation Watch revealed Radio as the most aggressive platform from a rate perspective; up 11.54% yoy.
With declining circulation, however, and an absence of support / research from the key players in print, the published inflation data must be raising value concerns.
AMPS / JIC’s and the rest!
With the latest AMPS hot into the market, many marketers and perhaps publishers have perhaps taken their collective eye off the future of what will become of AMPS in its new “establishment” survey role. PAMS has still to be agreed, it’s content decided and funding issues remain the elephant in the room.
What is clear is that the TV broadcasters are now driving the process and even siblings such as radio appear now to be an afterthought.
Print has a powerful story to tell as proven over the passing of Nelson Mandela and recently demonstrated via Millward Brown’s independent research.
Print research going forward must demonstrate the value of print and not just the quantum. Value is determined by return on investment and not just the rates charged..
Finally, in respect of the research, we should remember that digital is the new print ink, and not a competitor. The future for print in Africa will be a combination of both written delivery methods.
International Developments:
Print “Only” readership holding its own in the USA
• A new analysis (Feb 2014) of the most recent newspaper audience reports suggests a surprising split in reading habits. Digital audience continues to grow. Mobile audience is growing quickly. Mobile-only audience, though much smaller, has grown to 7 million.
• Yet more than half of newspaper audience — 54 percent still read their local paper’s news report only in print.
• The daily circulation gains (+3%) however were entirely driven by digital gains at the largest newspapers.
• Sunday gains also reflected the heavy use of “Sunday Select” products — packets of inserts to non-subscribers — by larger papers.
Rule Amendments effective 1st January 2014:
PDF Replica Editions:
• Paid Circulation – circulation is counted when payment is received.
• Bulk sales – The publisher must prove distribution in terms of a list provided by the purchaser – limited to 10% of total paid circulation.
• Free bulk distribution is excluded.
Membership Statistics:31 December 2013 Admissions Removals 31 March 2014
Magazines 526 2 -4 524 Consumer 220 2 -4 218
Business to Business 184 - - 184 Custom 102 - - 102
Free Magazines 20 - - 20 Newspapers 361 10 -5 366
Daily 27 1 - 28 Weekly 15 - -2 13
Weekend 27 2 - 29 Local 57 - -2 55
Hybrid 5 1 -1 5 Free Newspapers 230 6 - 236
Advertising Brochures 7 - - 7
Total ABC Members 894 12 -9 897
Sector size ranked by circulation– Quarter 1 2014:
POSITION SECTOR CIRCULATIONNUMBER OF
PUBLICATIONS AVERAGE1 Custom Magazines 11 787 596 102 115 5652 Free Newspapers 6 596 237 236 27 9503 Consumer Magazines 5 888 456 218 27 0114 Weekend Newspapers 2 086 611 29 71 9525 Daily Newspapers 1 622 041 28 57 9306 B2B Magazines 1 159 427 184 6 3017 Advertising Brochures 934 869 7 133 5538 Weekly Newspapers 621 750 13 47 8279 Free Magazines 527 859 20 26 393
10 Local Newspapers 432 771 55 7 86911 Hybrid Newspapers 23 136 5 4 627
TOTAL 31 680 753 897 35 319
Overall Economic Perspective
Comment:Real GDP at market prices increased by 1.9% in 2013. The main increase was in
Finance, Real Estate & Business.Retail sales grew by 2.2% year on year in February 2014.The main increase was in
Textiles, Clothing, Footwear and Leather.
4 Year Total Newspaper Circulation Trend by Quarter:
Comment:Total Newspaper circulation increased by 20,000 compared to the previous quarter.
Q1 2011
Q2 2011
Q3 2011
Q4 2011
Q1 2012
Q2 2012
Q3 2012
Q4 2012
Q1 2013
Q2 2013
Q3 2013
Q4 2013
Q1 2014
10,100,000
10,200,000
10,300,000
10,400,000
10,500,000
10,600,000
10,700,000
10,800,000
Total newspaper circulation
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:Daily Newspapers
Comment:• Circulation has declined annually by 4.5% since 2010, equivalent to 304,000 copies.• However, Q1 remained static, compared to Q4.
4 Year Trend Analysis by Language Daily Newspapers
Comment:
English titles have declined by 4.7% annually (232, 000 copies) over the period.
Afrikaans titles have declined by 6.5% annually (87,000 copies) over the period.
Vernacular titles have increased by 3.5% (15,000 copies) over the period.
4 Year Trend Analysis: Coastal vs Inland Daily Newspapers
Comment:Inland circulation declined annually by 4.7% (208,000 copies) over the period.Coastal circulation declined annually by 4.% (96,000 copies) over the period. Q1 increased by 20,000 copies compared to Q4.
Titles Showing Largest GrowthDaily Newspapers
No
Publication Name
TOTAL CIRCULATION
Corresponding Previous Period
Variance - Prior Year
Previous Quarter
Variance - Previous Quarter
1 Daily Dispatch 30,199 28,879 4,57% 25,521 18,33%
2 Isolezwe 119,846 116,186 3,15% 107,119 11,88%
Titles Showing Largest DeclineDaily Newspapers
No
Publication Name
TOTAL CIRCULATION
Corresponding Previous Period
Variance - Prior Year
Previous Quarter
Variance - Previous Quarter
1Citizen, The (Daily) 57,385 63,854 -10,13% 58,735 -2,30%
2 Cape Argus 30,319 33,247 -8,81% 30,204 0,38%
3 Son (Daily) 84,87 92,213 -7,96% 86,837 -2,27%
New Members / RemovalsDaily Newspapers
New MemberTitle
Zambia Daily Mail
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:Weekly Newspapers
Comment:• Weekly newspapers reflect an erratic performance.• Q1, however, declined by 2.5% (13,000 copies) compared to Q4.
Titles Showing Largest GrowthWeekly Newspapers
NoPublication Name
TOTAL CIRCULATION
Corresponding Previous Period
Variance - Prior Year
Previous Quarter
Variance - Previous Quarter
1 Soccer Laduma 317,013 289,654 9,45% 307,275 3,17%
Titles Showing Largest DeclineWeekly Newspapers
NoPublication Name
TOTAL CIRCULATION
Corresponding Previous Period
Variance - Prior Year
Previous Quarter
Variance - Previous Quarter
1 Motorsport World 4,997 6,143 -18,66% 8,227 -39,26%
2 Ilanga 100,853 117,115 -13,89% 95,994 5,06%
3 Mail & Guardian 44,266 45,279 -2,24% 51,551 -14,13%
New Members / RemovalsWeekly Newspapers
RemovalTitle
Auto weekThe Zimbabwean
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:Weekend Newspapers
Comment:Circulation has declined annually by 5% (485,000 copies) over the period.Q1, however, only declined by 1.8% (34,000 copies) compared to Q4.
4 Year Trend Analysis by Language:Weekend Newspapers
Comment:
English titles have declined annually by 5.5% (367,000 copies) over the period.
Afrikaans titles have declined annually by 8% (193,000 copies) over the period.
Vernacular titles have grown annually by 11.6% (76,000 copies) over the period.
Titles Showing Largest GrowthWeekend Newspapers
No Publication NameTOTAL
CIRCULATION
Corresponding Previous Period
Variance - Prior Year
Previous Quarter
Variance - Previous Quarter
1 Saturday Dispatch 22,109 20,450 8,11% 20,679 6,92%
Titles Showing Largest DeclineWeekend Newspapers
No Publication NameTOTAL
CIRCULATIONCorresponding Previous Period
Variance - Prior Year
Previous Quarter
Variance - Previous Quarter
1 Rapport 177,016 210,675 -15,98% 187,288 -5,48%
2 Beeld, Saturday 55,26 65,645 -15,82% 58,411 -5,39%
3Volksblad – Saturday 17,913 20,234 -11,47% 18,286 -2,04%
4 Ilanga Langesonto 55,224 61,918 -10,81% 56,074 -1,52%
5Pretoria News Saturday 10,177 11,382 -10,59% 10,126 0,50%
6
Son op Sondag (formerly Sondag Son) 50,186 55,885 -10,20% 54,625 -8,13%
New Members / RemovalsWeekend Newspapers
New MemberTitle
Saturday MailSunday Mail
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:Local Newspapers
Comment:Local Newspapers have declined by 2.8% (63,000 copies) over the period.Q1 increased by 11,000 copies compared to Q4.
Titles Showing Largest GrowthLocal Newspapers
NoPublication NameTOTAL
CIRCULATIONCorresponding Previous Period
Variance - Prior Year
Previous Quarter
Variance - Previous Quarter
1 Review Midweek 2,976 2,311 28,78% 2,738 8,69%
2 Capricorn Voice 5,975 5,186 15,21% 5,693 4,95%
3
Lowvelder, The / Laevelder, Die ( Tuesday) 14,697 13,258 10,85% 13,686 7,39%
Titles Showing Largest DeclineLocal Newspapers
NoPublication NameTOTAL
CIRCULATION
Corresponding Previous Period
Variance - Prior Year
Previous Quarter
Variance - Previous Quarter
1 The Mail 12,673 16,834 -24,72% 12,637 0,28%
2 Standerton Advertiser 3,052 3,563 -14,34% 3,199 -4,60%
3 Rustenburg Herald 22,397 25,606 -12,53% 21,874 2,39%
New Members / RemovalsLocal Newspapers
RemovalTitle
Letaba HeraldPalaborwa Herald
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:Hybrid Newspapers
Comment:Circulation shows a dramatic decline as a result of The Times moving to Daily
Newspapers in Q4.Q1 remained static compared to Q4.
New Members / RemovalsHybrid Newspapers
New MemberTitle
The Zimbabwean
RemovalTitle
Free State Times
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:Free Newspapers
Comment:Distribution has increased annually by 7.1% (1,513,000 copies) over the period. Q1 increased by 53,000 copies compared to Q4.
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q12010 2011 2012 2013 2014
3,000,000
4,000,000
5,000,000
6,000,000
7,000,000
8,000,000 Total Circulation
Total Circulation
New Members / RemovalsFree Newspapers
New MembersTitle
Bash LifestyleErmelo Insig/InsightHighlands Panorama NewsRise n Shine - Capricorn, Mopane, VhembeRise n Shine - WaterburgSecunda & Betal Insig
Titles Showing Largest GrowthFree Newspapers
NoPublication Name
TOTAL CIRCULATION
Corresponding Previous Period
Variance - Prior Year
Previous Quarter
Variance - Previous Quarter
1 Northern Eyethu 21360 6002 255,88% 21402 -0,20%
2 Midvaal Ster 15540 9034 72,02% 15069 3,13%
3
Kalahari Buletin (Formerly Kuruman Bulletin) 27832 19867 40,09% 27834 -0,01%
Titles Showing Largest DeclineFree Newspapers
No Publication Name
TOTAL CIRCULATION
Corresponding Previous Period
Variance - Prior Year
Previous Quarter
Variance - Previous Quarter
1 Makhado Review 924 5800 -84,07% 472 95,76%
2 Veereniging Ster 16806 23709 -29,12% 17631 -4,68%
3Rekord Central/Sentraal 18391 22540 -18,41% 18391 0,00%
4 Express 43928 53733 -18,25% 47205 -6,94%
4 Year Magazine Circulation by Quarter
Comment:Total magazines increased by 0.5% (97,000 copies) over the previous quarter.Consumer magazines decreased by 0.4% (24,000 copies) over the previous
quarter.
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:Consumer Magazines
Comment:Circulation declined annually by 1.7% (468,000 copies) over the period,although the decline has slowed in Q1 compared to the previous 6 quarters.
New Members / RemovalsConsumer Magazines
New MembersTitle
The 12th PlayerThe Bass Angler
RemovalsTitle
FHMPC FormatReal MagazineTight Lines
Titles Showing Largest GrowthConsumer Magazines
NoPublication Name
TOTAL CIRCULATION
Corresponding Previous Period
Variance - Prior Year
Previous Quarter
Variance - Previous Quarter
1Kuier Combo (Annual) 105 511 23 077 357,21%
2SA Career Focus (Six monthly) 4 835 2 412 100,46%
3 Super Bike 9722 6172 57,52% 6432 51,15%
4 Real Brides 2192 1507 45,45% 1723 27,22%
Titles Showing Largest DeclineConsumer Magazines
NoPublication Name
TOTAL CIRCULATION
Corresponding Previous Period
Variance - Prior Year
Previous Quarter
Variance - Previous Quarter
1Tech-Smart Magazine 14767 74304 -80,13% 14784 -0,11%
2 HQ Pony 3782 9909 -61,83% 3729 1,42%
3 Today's Child 10069 24016 -58,07% 10034 0,35%
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:Consumer Magazines - Home
Comment:Circulation has remained static over the period,Q1, however, increased by 20,000 copies compared to Q4..
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:Consumer Magazines - Sport and Hobby
Comment:Circulation declined annually by 3.3% (66,000 copies) over the period.Q1 remained static compared to Q4.
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:Consumer Magazines - Travel
Comment:Circulation increased annually by 22.7% (259,000 copies) over the period,fluctuating considerably as a result of biennial reporting titles.Q1 increased by 19,000 copies compared to Q4.
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:Consumer Magazines – Woman’s General
Comment:Circulation declined by 3.4% annually (237,000 copies) over the period.Q1 decreased by 48,000 copies compared to Q4, mainly the result of a
discontinued title.
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:Business to Business Magazines
Comment: Circulation has remained static over the period.
Titles Showing Largest GrowthBusiness to Business Magazines
No Publication Name
TOTAL CIRCULATION
Corresponding Previous Period
Variance - Prior Year
Previous Quarter
Variance - Previous Quarter
1Business Brief (Six monthly) 31 270 19 216 62,73%
2MIMS Guide to OTC Products (Annual) 2 857 1 778 60,69%
3 Poultry Focus Africa 4352 2927 48,68% 4254 2,30%
Titles Showing Largest DeclineBusiness to Business Magazines
No Publication Name
TOTAL CIRCULATION
Corresponding Previous Period
Variance - Prior Year
Previous Quarter
Variance - Previous Quarter
1 RISKsa 2004 6602 -69,65% 7399 -72,92%
2My Office (formerly Shop-SA) 3969 7970 -50,20% 3987 -0,45%
3Business In Durban (Annual) 8770 14561 -39,77%
4Modern Medicine Magazine 3912 5986 -34,65% 4021 -2,71%
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:B2B Magazines – Hospitality, Catering and Tourism
Comment:Circulation declined annually by 13% (62,000 copies) over the period, although
has remained fairly static over the last year.
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:Custom Magazines
Comment:Circulation increased annually by 2% (918,000 copies) over the period. Q1 increased by 204,000 copies compared to Q4.
Titles Showing Largest GrowthCustom Magazines
No Publication Name
TOTAL CIRCULATION
Corresponding Previous Period
Variance - Prior Year
Previous Quarter
Variance - Previous Quarter
1TAXtalk (Six monthly) 10 082 2 028 397,14%
2 TFG Escapes 59 080 27 656 113,62% 57 346 3,02%
3 Mercedes (Annual) 31 355 15 840 97,95%
4 TFG Man 61 562 32 349 90,31%
56829 8,33%
Titles Showing Largest DeclineCustom Magazines
NoPublication Name
TOTAL CIRCULATION
Corresponding Previous Period
Variance - Prior Year
Previous Quarter
Variance - Previous Quarter
1
Strategic Marketing Magazine (Six monthly) 5 145 16 763 -69,31%
2Q-One Student Diary (Annual) 54 054 103 060 -47,55%
3
The SA Journal of Epidemoilogy & Infection (SAJEI) (Annual) 1 069 1 922 -44,38%
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:Custom Magazines – Entertainment
Comment:Circulation increased annually by 5.7% (513,000 copies) over the period.However, Q1 increased by 9% (221,000 copies) compared to Q4.
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:Custom Magazines – Retail
Comment:Circulation increased annually by 1% (263,000 copies) over the period.Q1 remained static compared to Q4.
4 Year Category Trend by Quarter:Free Magazines
Comment: Circulation declined annually by 16.9% over the period.Q1 decreased by 10% (60,000 copies) compared to Q4.
Observations:• With the elections behind us we should remember that circulation
remains “democracy in print”; perhaps the most accurate expression of public support” available for publisher and advertiser scrutiny and decision making.
• The results that you have seen this morning should be scrutinized and the implications understood fully by all stakeholders. Within each segment there are winners as well as titles where there is room for improvement.
• Decisions and negotiations going forward should be based on such objective performance results.
• Press:
- Daily Newspaper performance remains promising as results show consistency with Q4 2013. It is interesting to point out that inland circulations dropped unexpectedly. However Daily Dispatch jumped 18% and Isolezwe was up 11% on Q4 2013.
- Weeklies, The slide continues down a further 2.5% on 2013 Q4.
- Weekend titles dropped only 1.8% albeit Afrikaans titles faired worse than their English or vernacular counterparts.
- The Local and free newspapers category grew over the period with strong growth in particular from the Review Midweek.
• Magazines:
- The overall performance of the magazine category suggest stability. This is not true. There were more closures than new entrants. This combination obscures the results.
- Specific highlights include:
- The travel category jumped 19 000 copies since Q4 2013.
- Discontinued titles in the Woman’s General category resulted in the category reflecting a decline.
- In the Business 2 Business segment, the circulation declined marginally. That said, Business Brief jumped 62% year on year which is a remarkable performance given its target market.
- Custom magazines continue to grow, up 204 000 copies compared to Q4 2013. Growth was as expected industry specific. Taxi Talk jumped 394%, while retail titles remained fairly static.
- Free magazines declined 10% on 2013 Q4
In summary newspapers continue to perform relatively better than magazines, which given the prophets of a digital apocalypse seems counter intuitive. What remains clear is that relevant content remains king…irrespective of the channel.
Thank you.
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