replacing mainstream hydrocarbon fuels, and their ghg ...€¦ · assumed $3.60/bu corn, average...
TRANSCRIPT
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© 2015 Gevo, Inc. | 1
ABC17 Patrick Gruber, Ph.D. CEO
Replacing Mainstream Hydrocarbon Fuels, and Their GHG emissions, with Low Carbon,
Commercially Viable Alternatives
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Forward-Looking Statements
Certain statements within this presentation may constitute “forward-looking statements” within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such statements relate to a variety of matters, including but not limited to: the ability of Gevo to enter into a definitive offtake agreement with Lufthansa; the ability of Gevo to build out the Luverne production facility to increase the production of isobutanol and/or hydrocarbon products; addressable markets, size of markets and market demand for isobutanol, ethanol and their derivatives; optimized isobutanol production costs and plant-level economics, including achievable EBITDA margins; future market opportunities related to Gevo’s alcohol-to-hydrocarbons technologies; Gevo’s ability to successfully scale up its ethanol-to-olefins technology; Gevo’s ability to obtain customer, licensing, investment and strategic partnership commitments and the timing of bringing such commitments online; Gevo’s future isobutanol and ethanol production capacity and the timing associated with bringing such capacity online; estimates of the timing and costs of capital expenditures at the Luverne plant and the impact of such installations; Gevo’s ability to sustain achievements in production capacity; the strength of Gevo’s intellectual property position and its ability to successfully and profitably license its technology platform to third parties; the performance of Gevo’s isobutanol yeast biocatalyst; the availability of additional production volumes to seed additional market opportunities; the expected applications of isobutanol, including its use to produce renewable paraxylene, PET, isobutanol-based fuel blends, isooctane and ATJ bio-jet; the expected cost-competitiveness and relative performance attributes of isobutanol and the products derived from it; the receipt and timing of ASTM and MIL-SPEC certification; the future price volatility of isobutanol and its derivatives; any potential decreases in Gevo’s expense levels, including as a result of the Butamax settlement, and anticipated EBITDA burn rates and other statements that are not purely statements of historical fact. These forward-looking statements are made on the basis of the current beliefs, expectations and assumptions of Gevo’s management and are subject to significant risks and uncertainty. All such forward-looking statements speak only as of the date they are made, and Gevo assumes no obligation to update or revise these statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise. Although Gevo believes that the expectations reflected in these forward-looking statements are reasonable, these statements involve many risks and uncertainties that may cause actual results to differ materially from what may be expressed or implied in these forward-looking statements. For a discussion of the risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results to differ from those expressed in these forward-looking statements, as well as risks relating to the business of the company in general, see the risk disclosures in Gevo’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2015, as amended, and in subsequent reports on Forms 10-Q and 8-K and other filings made with the Securities and Exchange Commission by Gevo, including any prospectus supplements related to this offering. This presentation is based on information that is generally available to the public and does not contain any material, non-public information. This presentation has been prepared solely for informational purposes and is neither an offer to purchase nor a solicitation of an offer to sell securities.
© 2017 Gevo, Inc. | 2
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Burning of fossil resources as fuels generates Greenhouse Gasses. – Mostly Carbon Dioxide (CO2)
– Also Nitrogen oxides, and Sulfur oxides
It is unequivocal that GHG’s are increasing from burning of fossil carbon (fuels, synthetic fiber, and plastics). Its simple chemistry.
The Problem
© 2017 Gevo, Inc. | 3
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Burning of Fossil Carbon Sources Generates Increased GHG‟s
Transportation fuels, electricity generation, heat, chemical
production, manufacturing, etc.
Atmospheric CO2
Natural Gas Oil © 2017 Gevo, Inc. | 4
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Atmospheric CO2 Has Increased by ~16 GT From 2006 to 2015 from Fossil Carbon Use
Land Use Change 3.5 GT
Land Sink 11.5 GT
Ocean Sink 9.7 GT
Transportation and Industry 34.0 GT
Data: CDIAC/NOAA-ESRL/GCP Carbon Budget GT=Giga tons
More Carbon Dioxide is being generated than the sinks can take up
© 2017 Gevo, Inc. | 5
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The Solution (Simplified)
Land Use Change 3.5 GT
Land Sink 11.5 GT
Ocean Sink 9.7 GT
Transportation and Industry 34.0 GT
Reduce
Reduce and eliminate Increase
Reduce fossil fuels for transportation and energy generation with low carbon alternative carbon sources. Reduce land use change by increasing yield and productivity. Increase the amount of carbon being put into the ground y good farming practices.
Natural Gas Oil © 2017 Gevo, Inc. | 6
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We Need the Same Prodcuts, but From a Different Carbon Source
© 2017 Gevo, Inc. | 7
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+
Process Energy
CO2
Carbon Source
• By eliminating both fossil carbon from both raw materials and process it is possible to eliminate GHG’s from business system
Increased
Replace the Carbon Source and Energy Source to Eliminate GHG‟s
Fuel
© 2017 Gevo, Inc. | 8
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CO2
+
Process Energy
+
Process Energy
CO2
CO2
Carbon Source
• By eliminating both fossil carbon from both raw materials and process it is possible to eliminate GHG’s from business system
Increased
Reduced
Replace the Carbon Source and Energy Source to Eliminate GHG‟s
© 2017 Gevo, Inc. | 9
Fuel
Fuel
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CO2
+
Process Energy
CO2 Reduced
We can do better than just replacing the fuel…
© 2017 Gevo, Inc. | 10
Fuel
Capture Protein Capture Oil Sequester Carbon
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Reality of RENEWABLE CARBON to Hydrocarbon Chemistry
~33%
Chemistry Routes Biological Routes
Combinations
Theoretical Mass Yield
© 2017 Gevo, Inc. | 11
12CO2 + 12H2O +H2------> C12H26 + 18O2
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Starch
Sugar
Sugar
Ag Residue or Grasses
Wood
Available Today
Available Future
Biogenic MSW (no plastics or
synthetics)
Carbohydrates
Vegetable oil
Tallow oil
Biobased fats and oils Biogas
Corn oil
© 2017 Gevo, Inc. | 12
Palm oil
What are the Non-Fossil Feedstock Possibilities?
Bagasse
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756 354
147 9 593
Carbohydrates Vegetable Oils Rendered Fats MSW BiogenicWaste
In order to replace large quantities of fossil fuels, we will be growing feedstock directly or indirectly....
Carbohydrates are the most scalable, and ubiquitous
*Based on updated Nexant Models and engineering projections Assumed $3.60/bu corn, average tallow/grease price from NRA market report
$283
$1 154 $1 199
$49
Carbohydrate Vegetable Oil Rendered Fats MSW BiogenicWaste
Source: 2010/2011 USDA Foreign Agriculture Service (FAS), NRA 2015, USDA ERS Oil Crop Yearbook 2015/16, World Bank Global Review of Solid Waste Management 2012
Feedstock Availability (MMT)
Feedstock Cost per Ton ($/MT)
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The Cost of the Feedstock is Critical to the Economics of the Product
Sugar Price
$/lb
$0.05
$0.06
$0.07
$0.08
$0.09
$0.10
$0.11
$0.12
$0.13
$0.14
$0.15
$0.16
$0.17
$0.18
$0.19
$0.20
$0.21
$0.22
$0.23
$0.24
$0.25
Cellulosic Sugars
Cane, Beet or Refined Corn sugar
Corn Starch Agave, Sorghum
Molasses
* HC = Hydrocarbon; Jet & Isooctane
A $0.01/lb ($22/mt) change in sugar price impacts the production cost of jet fuel
– $0.20-0.25/gal
– ~$8-10/bbl
Corn is effective because of the high yield of co-products offset the cost of corn
Corn oil High Protein Animal Feed
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Low Cost/ Low Volitility of Renewables
© 2016 Gevo, Inc. | 15
Jet and Crude Oil data obtained from U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) Corn data obtained from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Net Corn is subtraction of DDG value (100% value of corn, 18 lbs per bushel)
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USD
$ p
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US
Po
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Month of the Year
Cushing, OK WTI Crude Oil $/lb
Jet FOB Gulf Coast $/lb
US Monthly Average Corn $/lb
NET Corn US Monthly Average $/lb
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© 2017 Gevo, Inc. | 17
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Carbon Emissions Reduction - Luverne
*Petroleum based Jet Fuel Emissions based on standard EU RED value s – GHG modeled per EU RED standards
Net GHG Emissions: -7.89 gCO2e/MJ
80,05
0,80 0,80 0,80 6,81 6,81 6,81
25,69
5,42 5,42
(4,30) (4,30)
(37,83)
16,91
16,91 16,91
(50,00)
(20,00)
10,00
40,00
70,00
100,00
Fossil Fuel Emission Factor Current Process Biomass CHP Biomass CHP w/ Best Land
management
gm
CO
2 e
q p
er
MJ F
ue
l
Lifecycle GHG Emissions and Carbon Savings of Jet Fuel
Use Transport & Distribution Processing Savings from soil accumulation Cultivation of raw materials
0% reduction
43% reduction
68% reduction 110% reduction
New EU RED rules to reduce indirect land use change -Limits the share of biofuels from crops grown on agricultural land that can be counted towards the 2020 renewable energy targets to 7% -Sets an indicative 0.5% target for advanced biofuels as a reference for national targets which will be set by EU countries in 2017 -Harmonizes the list of feedstocks for biofuels across the EU whose contribution would count double towards the 2020 target of 10% for renewable energy in transport -Requires that biofuels produced in new installations emit at least 60% fewer greenhouse gases than fossil fuels
© 2017 Gevo, Inc. | 18
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Fossil Based Feedstocks for Alternative Jet Fuel and Gasoline
FACT: Using these as raw materials for fuels and then burning them as fuel INCREASES FOSSIL CO2 emissions.
Coal
Natural Gas
Synthetic Materials from MSW (plastics, foams, carpet fiber, car parts, packaging, films, food service ware, household goods, etc)
This slide is one we use when talking to airlines who have been told that these feedstocks are a
lower GHG alternative than petro-jet
© 2017 Gevo, Inc. | 19
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© 2013 Gevo, Inc. | 20
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Jet Fuel
Renewable Gasoline (Isooctane)
Specialty Chemicals & Solvents
Specialty Gasoline Blendstock (Marine / Off-Road, „Ethanol Free‟, On-Road)
Gevo Production Facilities Core Addressable Markets
Isobutanol – Drop-in Markets
Hydrocarbons – Drop-in Markets
South Hampton Resources Silsbee, TX
Luverne, MN
Isobutanol Production – Side-by-Side with Ethanol
Hydrocarbon Biorefinery
15 MGPY Ethanol 1.5 MGPY Isobutanol*
Gevo‟s Current Business System
* MGPY = million gallons per year; estimated isobutanol and ethanol design capacity
Isobutanol
Isobutanol
Renewable Hydrocarbons
© 2017 Gevo, Inc. | 21
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Product mix at Luverne Production Plant
~45K MT/Y of animal feed
5.7M L/Y (~4500t/Y)
IBA
~57M L/Y ETOH
~1,400 MT/Y corn oil
Approximate capacities © 2017 Gevo, Inc. | 22
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Potential Product mix at Future Luverne Production Plant
~30M L/Y Jet
~7.6M L/Y Isooctane
Approximate capacities
~45K MT/Y of animal feed
5.7M L/Y (~4500t/Y)
IBA
~1,400 MT/Y corn oil
© 2017 Gevo, Inc. | 23
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Targeting a Growth Market: Jet Fuel
The aviation industry is expected to double in passengers over the 20 years to 2034
The aviation industry accounts for 2% of GHG emissions (about the same as all of Germany), but it is expected to grow to 3% by 2050
Sources: International Air Transport Association (IATA); EIA 2016 Annual Energy Outlook
World Jet Fuel Demand
100,00
110,00
120,00
130,00
140,00
150,00
160,00
170,00
180,00
2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040
Year over Year Jet Fuel Demand Growth: ~3BGPY
Growth that the airlines industry intends to be offset for GHG’s
© 2017 Gevo, Inc. | 24
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It took a lot to get ASTM Qualification…
Took ~6 years to get approved
Took 186,000 gallons of fuel
ATJ plant has run ~30,000 hrs
One of 4 “Alternative Fuels”
Could use any carbohydrate source
© 2017 Gevo, Inc. | 25
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Jet Fuel: True Drop in, but with Improved Properties
The energy density of ATJ is 1-2% higher than petro-jet. This means more miles per gallon of fuel, or more weight might be carried by a plane.
Lower freezing point
Very low sulfur means lower SOx
© 2017 Gevo, Inc. | 26
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Renewable Jet Expected to Become Cost Advantaged
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040
WTI Oil Price (EIA) $50 $55 $70 $79 $85 $91 $95 $99 $104 $110 $115 $120 $126 $131 $138 $146 $154 $163 $170 $179 $187 $197 $207 $217
Petro Jet Price (EIA) $1,55 $1,80 $2,19 $2,41 $2,60 $2,76 $2,88 $2,99 $3,12 $3,28 $3,43 $3,57 $3,73 $3,88 $4,09 $4,30 $4,53 $4,80 $4,99 $5,23 $5,45 $5,72 $6,00 $6,29
Renewable Jet Net Price $1,76 $1,78 $1,78 $1,78 $1,78 $1,78 $1,78 $1,81 $1,81 $1,83 $1,85 $1,87 $1,89 $1,91 $1,94 $1,96 $1,98 $2,00 $2,02 $2,05 $2,07 $2,09 $2,11 $2,13
$0,00
$1,00
$2,00
$3,00
$4,00
$5,00
$6,00
$7,00
Petro Jet Fuel Price
Potential Renewable Jet Net Price*
Pri
ce
The EIA predicts rising jet fuel prices over the next two decades
As Gevo’s production becomes optimized, production costs and policy driven net backs will result in a cost benefit when compared to petroleum-based jet fuel
This cost advantage can be used to DRIVE SUSTAINABILITY
* ATJ estimated economics are based on optimized future plant and include RIN and tax credits Source: EIA 2016 Annual Energy Outlook, USDA Agricultural Projections to 2025, Global Harvest Initiative © 2017 Gevo, Inc. | 27
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Timeframes Matter
2017 2020 2025
What price is oil?
Is carbon valued?
Time Required to Deploy Assets
Dillema: The future prices of oil and carbon can’t be known now with certainty. It takes 2-3 years to build production assets. Decision making timeframe is now, given trends
Scenario 1 Scenario 2 Scenario 3
Oil Price >$75/bbl >$75/bbl
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Each gallon of gas made from renewable isooctane would have an extremely high RIN content, potential very low fossil carbon content, low CI, and be cleaner overall
Isooctane: “The other ~80-90% of gasoline”
© 2017 Gevo, Inc. | 29
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Each gallon of gas made from renewable isooctane would have an extremely high RIN content, potential very low fossil carbon content, low CI, and be cleaner overall
Isooctane: “The other ~80-90% of gasoline”
© 2017 Gevo, Inc. | 30
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Isobutanol Gasoline Blendstock Market
Key Partners
Target market is “high octane, RFS compliant, High RIN value, Ethanol Free Fuels”
© 2017 Gevo, Inc. | 31
http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&uact=8&docid=EeZNaV8rln-U2M&tbnid=Rj-ym1xA4GFJhM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http://www.gnagency.com/insurance/boat-watercraft-insurance/&ei=MMrSU4fLL8WEjALvg4CICw&bvm=bv.71778758,d.cGE&psig=AFQjCNGqhn2081-HN7ANAxzJuhQ_ZgZhzA&ust=1406409641865609https://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl&imgrefurl=http://www.uscg.mil/history/flagindex.asp&h=0&w=0&tbnid=QdQkKttKB-u4XM&zoom=1&tbnh=225&tbnw=225&docid=X7uoKnuHegb3EM&tbm=isch&ei=-DPqU_6RLMT-yQSQyoLwAg&ved=0CAIQsCUoAAhttp://www.google.com/url?url=http://biavic.com.au/mercury-marine-proud-welcome-aboard-newest-dealership-good-times-marine/&rct=j&frm=1&q=&esrc=s&sa=U&ei=SZXpU4mcNY7-yQSy8ID4Bg&ved=0CBwQ9QEwAw&usg=AFQjCNF3BsU_fMb_a77ZSm4bvqi2Y9KZNg
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PETE
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50 Million Gallons Fuel Grade Ethanol
Potential for a Low Cost Route to Renewable Diesel
~19M Gal ~2M Gal ~8000t Hydrogen
Chemical Catalysis
Potential for low cost route to renewable diesel
Generates large quantities of hydrogen
Bunker Fuel
Diesel Fuel
Total Production Cost: $3.44/gal with no credit for hydrogen, no RINS, no credits Total Production Cost: $2.75/gal with hydrogen co-product sales, no RINS, other credits
Illustrative examples, based on lab results and economic modeling © 2017 Gevo, Inc. | 33
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To slow down GHG emissions, we need to REPLACE BOTH the carbon source and the energy of production AT LARGE SCALE WITH MAINSTREAM HYDROCARBON PRODUCTS
To REVERSE GHG, WE NEED TO SINK CO2. The easiest, practical way is through good agricultural practices
Renewable hydrocarbons can be COST COMPETITIVE in the relative near term.
Renewable hydrocarbons offer PERFORMANCE ADVANTAGES
It advantageous to produce co-products, particularly from the feedstocks. It is possible to address food while reducing carbon. Gevo has proven it.
Take-Aways
© 2017 Gevo, Inc. | 34
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Low Cost Alcohol From Renewable Carbon Enable Hydrocarbons
Source: Adapted from Nexant
Benzene
Toluene
Xylenes
Aromatics
Unsaturated Polyesters
Polypropylene
Jet Fuel
Gasoline
Diesel
Natural Gas Steam Cracking Olefins
Pyrolysis Gasoline
meta-Xylene
para-Xylene
ortho-Xylene
Methyl Methacrylate
Toluene Diamine
Cyclohexane
Ethyl Benzene
Cumene
Acrylonitrile
Propylene Oxide
Isobutene
Ethanol
alpha-Olefin
Polyols
Phenol
Acetone
Styrene
Adipic Acid
Caprolactam
Toluene Diisocyanate
Phthalic Anhydride
Isophthalic Acid
PTA
Ethylene Glycol
MTBE/ETBE
Polyesters(PET)
Plasticizers
Polyurethane
Nylon 6
Nylon 66
SB Latex
ABS
Polystyrene
Butadiene-Styrene
Polybutadiene
Polyacrylonitrile
Polyisobutylene
Polyester
Poly(vinyl cloride)
Polyethylene
Ethylene
Propylene
Butylenes
Butadiene
Vinyl Chloride
Crude Oil
Ethylene Oxide
EDC
Hydrocarbon Fuels
Naphtha
Chemicals and Materials
Alcohols
From just isobutanol (IBA) and ethanol most chemicals can be made cost-effectively
© 2017 Gevo, Inc. | 35
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© 2015 Gevo, Inc. | 36