Replacement WCF parameter

Review Group 176, December 2007

Page 2Theme Date Department

Requirement

Replace WCF with a parameter based on other information EXCLUDING SND

There are a number of possibilities, these slides concentrate on a weather based alternative to assess possibilities

Does not preclude other potential solutions High level analysis only for a representative LDZ

Page 3Theme Date Department

WCF Performance over 2006/7 gas year

WCF Oct 2006 to Aug 2007

-0.80000000

-0.60000000

-0.40000000

-0.20000000

0.00000000

0.20000000

0.40000000

0.60000000

0.80000000

01/1

0/06

01/1

1/06

01/1

2/06

01/0

1/07

01/0

2/07

01/0

3/07

01/0

4/07

01/0

5/07

01/0

6/07

01/0

7/07

01/0

8/07

WCF

Page 4Theme Date Department

Scaling Factor Performance over gas year 2006/7

SF

0.88000

0.90000

0.92000

0.94000

0.96000

0.98000

1.00000

1.02000

01/1

0/06

15/1

0/06

29/1

0/06

12/1

1/06

26/1

1/06

10/1

2/06

24/1

2/06

07/0

1/07

21/0

1/07

04/0

2/07

18/0

2/07

04/0

3/07

18/0

3/07

01/0

4/07

15/0

4/07

29/0

4/07

13/0

5/07

27/0

5/07

SF

Page 5Theme Date Department

Assumptions

Looking for a replacement for the WCF parameter that can be slotted into the algorithm

Assumed that DAF can be configured at a similar level as currently

Approximated an LDZ ALP and DAF equivalent (AQ splits, EUC WSENS values are not available)

Page 6Theme Date Department

WCF and LDZ Actual Demand

0

50,000,000

100,000,000

150,000,000

200,000,000

250,000,000

300,000,000

350,000,00001

/10/

06

15/1

0/06

29/1

0/06

12/1

1/06

26/1

1/06

10/1

2/06

24/1

2/06

07/0

1/07

21/0

1/07

04/0

2/07

18/0

2/07

04/0

3/07

18/0

3/07

01/0

4/07

15/0

4/07

29/0

4/07

13/0

5/07

27/0

5/07

-0.80000000

-0.60000000

-0.40000000

-0.20000000

0.00000000

0.20000000

0.40000000

0.60000000

0.80000000

Act Dem

WCF

Page 7Theme Date Department

WCF Trials (1)

Looked at formatting a WCF parameter using ‘weather’ type options CWV SNCWV WSENS

Used in various combinations Difference from seasonal normal Change from previous day Weighted and lagged temperature movements

WSENS/ACT used as a base level

Page 8Theme Date Department

WCF Trials – base level

-0.80

-0.60

-0.40

-0.20

0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

0.80

01

/10

/20

06

15

/10

/20

06

29

/10

/20

06

12

/11

/20

06

26

/11

/20

06

10

/12

/20

06

24

/12

/20

06

07

/01

/20

07

21

/01

/20

07

04

/02

/20

07

18

/02

/20

07

04

/03

/20

07

18

/03

/20

07

01

/04

/20

07

15

/04

/20

07

29

/04

/20

07

13

/05

/20

07

27

/05

/20

07

WSENS/ACT

WCF with SF=1

Page 9Theme Date Department

Work in progress…

WCF Options.

-0.60000000

-0.50000000

-0.40000000

-0.30000000

-0.20000000

-0.10000000

0.00000000

0.10000000

0.20000000

0.30000000

01/1

0/200

6

08/1

0/200

6

15/1

0/200

6

22/1

0/200

6

29/1

0/200

6

05/1

1/200

6

12/1

1/200

6

19/1

1/200

6

26/1

1/200

6

03/1

2/200

6

10/1

2/200

6

17/1

2/200

6

24/1

2/200

6

31/1

2/200

6

Gas Day

WC

F

WCF Pseudo WCF4 WCF when SF = 1 Pseudo WCF5 Pseudo WCF6

Page 10Theme Date Department

Issues to consider

Whether the level of accuracy can be achieved – better aggregate SF level but increased variability

Holiday and weekend impacts

Whether a simple enough solution can be provided

Impacts on DAF

Requirement for data at EUC level to assess final accuracy WSENS Aggregate AQ