!renewable!electricity!futures:!! … · 2019. 12. 12. · 10 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800...

NREL is a na*onal laboratory of the U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy, operated by the Alliance for Sustainable Energy, LLC.

Renewable Electricity Futures: A Technical Assessment of 30-‐90% Renewable Electricity by 2050 in the U.S.

Pathways to Climate SoluEons: Assessing Energy Technology and Policy InnovaEon

Aspen, CO, Feb 2014 Douglas J. Arent, Ph.D., MBA ExecuEve Director, JISEA/NREL

Renewable Electricity Futures Study Hand, M.M.; Baldwin, S.; DeMeo, E.; Reilly, J.M.; Mai, T.; Arent, D.; Porro, G.; Meshek, M.; Sandor, D. eds. 4 vols. NREL/TP-‐6A20-‐52409. Golden, CO: Na*onal Renewable Energy Laboratory. hWp://www.nrel.gov/analysis/re_futures/.

2 WWW.NREL.GOV/RE_FUTURES

Renewable Electricity Futures Scope RE Futures does…. RE Futures does not… Iden*fy commercially available RE genera*on technology combina*ons that meet up to 80% or more of projected 2050 electricity demand in every hour of the year.

Consider policies, new opera*ng procedures, evolved business models, or market rules that could facilitate high levels of RE genera*on.

Iden*fy electric sector characteris*cs associated with high levels of RE genera*on.

Fully evaluate power system reliability.

Explore a variety of high renewable electricity genera*on scenarios.

Forecast or predict the evolu*on of the electric sector.

Es*mate the associated U.S. electric sector carbon emissions reduc*ons.

Assess op*mal pathways to achieve a low-‐carbon electricity system.

Explore a select number of economic, environmental and social impacts.

Conduct a comprehensive cost-‐benefit analysis.

Illustrate an RE-‐specific pathway to a clean electricity future to inform the development of integrated porbolio scenarios that consider all technology pathways and their implica*ons.

Provide a defini*ve assessment of high RE genera*on, but does iden*fy areas for deeper inves*ga*on.


Modeling Framework

Technology cost & performance Resource availability Demand projec?on Demand-‐side technologies Grid opera?ons Transmission costs

Black & Veatch

Technology Teams

Flexible Resources

End-‐Use Electricity

System Opera*ons

Transmission

ABB inc. GridView

(hourly produc?on cost)

rooDop PV penetra?on

2050 mix of generators

does it balance hourly?

ImplicaEons GHG Emissions Water Use Land Use

Direct Costs

Capacity & Genera.on 2010-‐2050


Scenario Framework


Demand & Supply AssumpEons

•  .

-‐  Only Commercially Mature Technologies -‐  Some Demand Response, based on early tech assessments

-‐  Transport shies toward HEV/PHEV/EVs -‐  Economic Op*miza*on, with curtailment allowed

Key Results

Renewable Electricity Futures Study (2012). Hand, M.M.; Baldwin, S.; DeMeo, E.; Reilly, J.M.; Mai, T.; Arent, D.; Porro, G.; Meshek, M.; Sandor, D., editors. Lead authors include Mai, T.; Sandor, D.; Wiser, R.; Heath, G.; Augus*ne, C.; Bain, R.; Chapman, J.; Denholm, P.; Drury, E.; Hall, D.; Lantz, E.; Margolis, R.; Thresher, R.; Hos*ck, D.; Belzer, D.; Hadley, S.; Markel, T.; Marnay, C.; Milligan, M.; Ela, E.; Hein, J.; Schneider, T.


0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Baseline

30% R

E

40% R

E

50% R

E

60% R

E

70% R

E

80% R

E

90% R

E

% o

f Tot

al G

ener

ated

Ele

ctric

ity

Percent RE

Wind

PV

CSP

Hydropower

Geothermal

Biomass

Natural Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Variable Generation

Renewable generaEon resources could adequately supply 80% of total U.S. electricity generaEon in 2050 while balancing hourly supply and demand

Baseline scenario 80% RE-‐ITI scenario

RE-‐ITI scenarios


All regions of the country could contribute substanEal renewable electricity supply in 2050

80% RE-‐ITI scenario


A more flexible electric power system is needed to enable electricity supply-‐demand balance with high levels of RE generaEon

•  Flexible generators (parEcularly natural gas) •  Dispatchable renewables (e.g., biopower, geothermal, CSP with storage

and hydropower) •  Demand response (e.g., interrupEble load) •  Controlled charging of electric vehicles •  Storage •  Curtailment •  Transmission •  GeospaEal diversity of the variable resources to smooth output •  CoordinaEng bulk power system operaEons across wider areas

System flexibility can be increased using a broad porMolio of supply-‐ and demand-‐side op?ons, including:


0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Jul-‐16 00:00

Jul-‐16 12:00

Jul-‐17 00:00

Jul-‐17 12:00

Jul-‐18 00:00

Jul-‐18 12:00

Jul-‐19 00:00

Jul-‐19 12:00

Power (G

W)

CurtailmentWindPVGas CTGas CCHydropowerCSPCoalBiopowerGeothermalNuclearShifted LoadLoad

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Apr-‐27 00:00

Apr-‐27 12:00

Apr-‐28 00:00

Apr-‐28 12:00

Apr-‐29 00:00

Apr-‐29 12:00

Apr-‐30 00:00

Apr-‐30 12:00

Power (G

W)

CurtailmentWindPVGas CTGas CCHydropowerCSPCoalBiopowerGeothermalNuclearShifted LoadLoad

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Jul-‐16 00:00

Jul-‐16 12:00

Jul-‐17 00:00

Jul-‐17 12:00

Jul-‐18 00:00

Jul-‐18 12:00

Jul-‐19 00:00

Jul-‐19 12:00

Power (G

W)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Apr-‐27 00:00

Apr-‐27 12:00

Apr-‐28 00:00

Apr-‐28 12:00

Apr-‐29 00:00

Apr-‐29 12:00

Apr-‐30 00:00

Apr-‐30 12:00

Power (G

W)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Jul-‐16 00:00

Jul-‐16 12:00

Jul-‐17 00:00

Jul-‐17 12:00

Jul-‐18 00:00

Jul-‐18 12:00

Jul-‐19 00:00

Jul-‐19 12:00

Power (G

W)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Apr-‐27 00:00

Apr-‐27 12:00

Apr-‐28 00:00

Apr-‐28 12:00

Apr-‐29 00:00

Apr-‐29 12:00

Apr-‐30 00:00

Apr-‐30 12:00

Power (G

W)

Electricity supply and demand can be balanced in every hour of the year in each region with 80% electricity from renewable resources*


*Full reliability analysis not conducted in RE Futures

Baseline scenario

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Jul-‐16 00:00

Jul-‐16 12:00

Jul-‐17 00:00

Jul-‐17 12:00

Jul-‐18 00:00

Jul-‐18 12:00

Jul-‐19 00:00

Jul-‐19 12:00

Power (G

W)

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Apr-‐27 00:00

Apr-‐27 12:00

Apr-‐28 00:00

Apr-‐28 12:00

Apr-‐29 00:00

Apr-‐29 12:00

Apr-‐30 00:00

Apr-‐30 12:00

Power (G

W)

Peak →

Off-‐Peak →

80% RE-‐ETI scenario Constrained Transmission scenario


0

50

100

150

200

250

Apr-‐27 00:00

Apr-‐27 12:00

Apr-‐28 00:00

Apr-‐28 12:00

Apr-‐29 00:00

Apr-‐29 12:00

Apr-‐30 00:00

Apr-‐30 12:00

Power (G

W)

Coal

0102030405060708090

Apr-‐27 00:00

Apr-‐27 12:00

Apr-‐28 00:00

Apr-‐28 12:00

Apr-‐29 00:00

Apr-‐29 12:00

Apr-‐30 00:00

Apr-‐30 12:00

Power (G

W)

Gas CC

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Apr-‐27 00:00

Apr-‐27 12:00

Apr-‐28 00:00

Apr-‐28 12:00

Apr-‐29 00:00

Apr-‐29 12:00

Apr-‐30 00:00

Apr-‐30 12:00

Power (G

W)

Gas CT

051015202530354045

Apr-‐27 00:00

Apr-‐27 12:00

Apr-‐28 00:00

Apr-‐28 12:00

Apr-‐29 00:00

Apr-‐29 12:00

Apr-‐30 00:00

Apr-‐30 12:00

Power (G

W)

Coal

024681012141618

Apr-‐27 00:00

Apr-‐27 12:00

Apr-‐28 00:00

Apr-‐28 12:00

Apr-‐29 00:00

Apr-‐29 12:00

Apr-‐30 00:00

Apr-‐30 12:00

Power (G

W)

Gas CC

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Apr-‐27 00:00

Apr-‐27 12:00

Apr-‐28 00:00

Apr-‐28 12:00

Apr-‐29 00:00

Apr-‐29 12:00

Apr-‐30 00:00

Apr-‐30 12:00

Power (G

W)

Gas CTBa

selin

e scen

ario

80% RE-‐ITI scena

rio

System flexibility provided through increased ramping and startup-‐shutdown of convenEonal generators, parEcularly in low-‐demand periods


•  In most 80%-‐by-‐2050 RE scenarios, 110-‐190 million MW-‐miles of new transmission lines are added. •  AC-‐DC-‐AC interEes are expanded to allow greater power transfer between asynchronous interconnects. •  However, 80% RE is achievable even when transmission is severely constrained (30 million MW-‐miles)

—which leads to a greater reliance on local resources (e.g. PV, offshore wind). •  Annual transmission and interconnecEon investments in the 80%-‐by-‐2050 RE scenarios range from

$5.7B-‐8.4B/year, which is within the range of recent total investor-‐owned uElity transmission expenditures.

•  High RE scenarios lead to greater transmission congesEon, line usage, and transmission and distribuEon losses.

80% RE-‐ITI scenario Constrained Transmission

80% RE is achievable with new Transmission or if new Tx is constrained.


80% RE Scenario Results Comparison (under RE-‐ITI technology assump?on)

80% RE-‐ITI Constrained Transmission

Constrained Flexibility

Constrained Resources

High-‐Demand

% variable genera*on 43% 47% 39% 47% 49%

New Transmission

119 million MW-‐miles





T&D Losses 8.6% 8.3% 9.0% 9.5% 8.9%

Opera*ng Reserve Reqt. 96 GW 114 GW 128 GW 99 GW 143 GW

Interrup*ble Load 38 GW 48 GW 28 GW 38 GW 64 GW

Curtailment (% of var gen) 5.6% 8.6% 7.0% 6.2% 7.1%

Storage 122 GW 129 GW 152 GW 131 GW 136 GW

~

~

~

~

~

~ ~

~

Low-‐Demand

Red arrows indicate magnitude and direcEon of change relaEve to the 80% RE-‐ITI scenario


High renewable electricity futures can result in deep reducEons in electric sector greenhouse gas emissions and water use

80% RE scenarios lead to: •  ~80% reducEon in 2050 generaEon from both coal-‐fired and natural gas-‐fired sources •  ~80% reducEon in 2050 GHG emissions (combusEon-‐only and life cycle) •  ~50% reducEon in electric sector water use •  Gross land use totaling <3% of conEguous U.S. area; other related impacts include visual,

landscape, noise, habitat, and ecosystem concerns.

0

5

10

15

20

25

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Annu

al E

lect

ric S

ecto

r Co

nsum

ptio

n (Q

uads

)

Year

80% RE (NG) 80% RE (coal)

Baseline (NG) Baseline (coal)

Gross Land Use Comparisons (000 km2)

Biomass 44-‐88

All Other RE 52-‐81

All Other RE (disrupted) 4-‐10

Transmission & Storage 3-‐19

Total ConEguous U.S. 7,700

2009 Corn ProducEon* 350

Major Roads** 50

Golf Courses ** 10

80% RE scen

arios

* USDA 2010, **Denholm & Margolis 2008


Incremental cost associated with high RE generaEon is comparable to published cost esEmates of other clean energy scenarios

•  Comparable to incremental cost for clean energy and low carbon scenarios evaluated by EIA and EPA

•  Reflects replacement of exisEng generaEon plants with new generators and addiEonal balancing requirements (combusEon turbines, storage, and transmission) compared to baseline scenario (conEnued evoluEon of today’s convenEonal generaEon system)

•  AssumpEons reflect incremental or evoluEonary improvements to currently commercial RE technologies; they do not reflect U.S. DOE acEviEes to further lower these costs.

$0

$20

$40

$60

2010 2020 2030 2040 2050

Rea

l 200

9$/M

Wh

Core 80% RE (ReEDS) EIA 2009cEPA 2009a EIA 2010bEPA 2010 EIA 2011a

EIA 2011b

Increase in retail electricity price relative to reference/baseline

Source: Renewable Electricity Futures (2012)


•  Cost is less sensiEve to the assumed electric system constraints (transmission, flexibility, RE resource access).

•  Electricity prices in high RE scenarios are largely insensiEve to projecEons for fossil fuel prices and fossil technology improvements.

•  Lower RE generaEon levels result in lower incremental prices (e.g., 30% RE-‐ETI scenario shows no incremental cost relaEve to the baseline scenario).

•  Cost figures do not reflect savings or investments associated with energy efficiency assumpEons in the low-‐demand Baseline and 80% RE scenarios.

-$20 -$10 $0 $10 $20

Fossil-HTI

Higher Fossil Fuel

Lower Fossil Fuel

High Demand

Constr. Res.

Constr. Flex.

Constr. Trans.

80% RE-NTI

Difference in 2050 Electricity Price Relative to 80% RE-ITI

[Real 2009$/MWh]

80% RE-ETI

-$20 -$10 $0 $10 $20

Higher Fossil Fuel

High Demand

Difference in 2050 Electricity Price Relative to Baseline (low-demand, ITI)

[Real 2009$/MWh]

Lower Fossil Fuel

Fossil-HTI

Improvement in cost and performance of RE technologies is the most impacqul lever for reducing the incremental cost


No insurmountable long-‐term constraints to RE technology manufacturing capacity, materials supply, or labor availability were idenEfied

•  80% RE generaEon in 2050 requires addiEons of ~20 GW/year in 2011-‐2020 , ~30/GW/year in 2021-‐2040, and ~40 GW/year in 2041-‐2050 (higher under High-‐Demand scenario).

•  These installaEon rates are higher than U.S. capacity addiEons in 2010 (7 GW) and 2009 (11 GW) and would place challenges on RE industries.

•  Recent U.S. and worldwide growth demonstrate the scalability of RE industries. •  More informed siEng pracEces and regulaEons can reduce industry scale-‐up challenges.



Renewable Resources and Technologies

•  Only currently commercial technologies were modeled (no EGS, ocean, floaEng wind) with incremental and evoluEonary improvements.

•  RE characterisEcs including locaEon, technical resource potenEal, and grid output characterisEcs were considered.

Biopower ~100 GW

Solar CSP ~37,000 GW

Geothermal ~36 GW

Hydropower ~200 GW

Solar PV ~80,000 GW (roorop PV ~700 GW)

Wind ~10,000 GW

•Stand-‐alone •Cofired with coal

•Trough •Tower

•Hydrothermal

•Run-‐of-‐river

•Residen*al •Commercial •U*lity-‐scale

•Onshore •Offshore fixed-‐boWom

With thermal storage


A TransformaEon of the U.S. Electricity System

RE generaEon from technologies that are commercially available today, in combinaEon with a more flexible electric system, is more than adequate to supply 80% of total U.S. electricity generaEon in 2050—while meeEng electricity demand on an hourly basis in every region of the country.


All regions of the country could contribute substanEal renewable electricity supply in 2050 – especially when transmission is constrained

Constrained Transmission scenario


0

100

200

300

400

500

Wind-onshore

Solar-PV

Wind-offshore

Hydropow

er

Solar-CSP

Biom

ass

Geotherm

al20

50 In

stal

led

Cap

acity

(GW

)80% RE-NTI80% RE-ITI80% RE-ETI

The abundance and diversity of RE resources can support mulEple combinaEons of RE technologies to provide 80% generaEon by 2050

•  Future (relaEve) RE technology cost and performance drives deployment toward different mix of technologies depending on commercial and technological maturity

Ranges encompass results for (low-‐demand) Technology Improvement and Constrained scenarios

Greater techn

ology

improvem

ent


Renewables can meet 80% of High Demand Scenario

•  Higher demand growth generally implies an increased need for new generaEon and transmission capacity in both the baseline and 80% RE scenarios.

•  More renewable generaEon capacity, parEcularly wind and PV, is needed; it will result in greater industry scale-‐up and resource access challenges.

•  AddiEonal flexible supply-‐ and demand-‐side capacity (e.g., storage, natural gas combusEon turbine power plants, and interrupEble load) is also needed.

•  While higher demand growth shows greater increases in electricity prices, the direct incremental cost associated with high renewable generaEon levels decreases (the prices in baseline also increase).

•  Cost-‐effecEveness of energy efficiency vs. supply-‐side opEons was not evaluated.


Future Work Needed

•  A comprehensive cost-‐benefit analysis

•  Comprehensive power system reliability analysis

•  Market Design, InsEtuEonal, and other structural areas…

•  Deeper analysis of advanced technologies, including supply and demand-‐side flexibility


A future U.S. electricity system that is largely powered by renewable sources is possible, and further work is warranted to invesEgate this clean generaEon pathway.

www.nrel.gov/RE_Futures


InternaEonal Scenarios & Best PracEces

NZ, Ireland: 2007; Portugal 2020: UK 2030, rest 2050


21st Century Power Partnership

•  Accelerate the transiEon to clean, efficient, reliable and cost-‐effecEve power systems. o  The 21CPP is a mul*lateral effort of the Clean Energy Ministerial (CEM) and serves as a plaborm for interna*onal efforts to advance integrated policy, regulatory, financial, and technical solu*ons for the deployment of renewable energy in combina*on with large-‐scale energy efficiency and smart grid solu*ons.

o  Core Elements 1.  Global Exper*se 2.  Public-‐private collabora*on 3.  Peer-‐to-‐peer learning 4.  Integrated systems approaches


AcEons to Accommodate High RE

A.  Lead public engagement, par*cularly for new transmission

B.  Coordinate and integrate planning C.  Develop rules for market evolu*on that

enable system flexibility D.  Expand access to diverse resources and

geographic footprint of opera*ons E.  Improve system opera*ons


AcEons Reflect Market Status


System-‐wide Approach More EffecEve


Key Findings—AcEons for Ministers

1.  Commission a comprehensive assessment of the technical, ins*tu*onal, human capital, and market status and factors influencing renewable energy integra*on

2.  Develop visionary goals and plans at na*onal and regional levels, and empower appropriate leadership to bring the visions to frui*on

3.  Lead the public engagement to communicate goals and needed ac*ons to aWain them

4.  Engage in interna*onal coordina*on to share best prac*ces and strengthen technical, human and ins*tu*onal capabili*es to achieve higher levels of renewable energy penetra*on

!renewable!electricity!futures:!! … · 2019. 12. 12. · 10 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800...

Documents