renewable technologies in the future...

RENEWABLE TECHNOLOGIES IN THE FUTURE NEM

API Summer School - 24 Feb 2016

MAGNUS HINDSBERGER AND NILESH MODI

AUSTRALIAN ENERGY MARKET OPERATOR (AEMO)

•  AEMO’s core functions are within: o  NEM and WEM

Ø  System Operator Ø  Market Operator

o  Transmission Services o  National Transmission Planner o  Gas Markets Operator o  Energy Market Development

•  Governance: o  Joint government (60%) and

industry (40%) ownership o  Not for profit o  Funded by Market Participants

THE JOURNEY TODAY

•  Renewable developments today

•  Visions of the future o  International policy objectives o  100% renewables in the NEM study

•  Challenges getting there o  Issues found in AEMO’s integration of

renewables studies o  Solutions pursued internationally

POP QUIZ

What were the top 3 technologies (by type) in terms of new installed capacity in 2015? •  In USA?

o  Wind: 48% o  Gas: 36% o  Solar: 13%

•  In Europe? o  Wind: 44% o  Solar: 30% o  Coal: 16%

64% renewables 77% renewables

Source: FERC, Feb 2016 Source: EWEA, Feb 2016

SAME TREND IN AUSTRALIA?

Committed projects in the NEM as per Oct 2015:

•  QLD: o  Kogan Creek Solar Thermal Boost (44 MW)

•  NSW: o  Moree Solar Farm (56 MW)

•  Victoria: o  Ararat Wind Farm (240 MW) o  Coonooer Bridge Wind Farm (20 MW)

•  South Australia: o  Hornsdale Wind Farm (102 MW) Source: AEMO generation

information page, Oct 2015

All (100%) is renewable

The 2014 Electricity Statement of Opportunities (ESOO) reported surplus generation capacity of 7,400 MW in the National Electricity Market (NEM) by 2023−24. The market has responded in the past year by notifying its intent to withdraw approximately 4,550 MW of capacity (about half the surplus) by 2022.

Source: 2015 Electricity Statement of Opportunities

MOVING TOWARDS HIGH PENETRATIONS

•  California: o  25% renewable electricity target for 2016 o  33% renewable electricity target for 2020

•  Germany: o  35% of electricity from renewables by 2020 and 80% by 2050

•  Ireland: o  40% renewable electricity target for 2020

•  Sweden: o  50% renewable energy by 2020 (share for electricity higher)

•  Denmark: o  Current policy will deliver ~50% of its electricity supply from wind

by 2020 with another ~20% from biomass o  Longer term targets are 100% of electricity and heat to be

renewable by 2035, and 100% of transport renewable by 2050

100% RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY SUPPLY IN AUSTRALIA

•  100% renewable Electricity supply in Australia: o  Is it possible? o  What would it look like?

•  In 2012, AEMO was commissioned to undertake such as study.

•  Part of the previous Government’s Clean Energy Future Plan.

•  Scenario 1 by 2030 and 2050 o  Moderate economic growth, fast transformation

•  Scenario 2 by 2030 and 2050 o  High economic growth, moderate transformation

THE BUILDING BLOCKS

Storage

Network

All building block assumptions published in September 2012: http://webarchive.nla.gov.au/gov/20140211194248/http://www.climatechange.gov.au/reducing-carbon/aemo-report-100-renewable-electricity-scenarios

DEMAND – AND DEMAND SIDE OPTIONS

Scenario POE

2029-30 2049-50 Summer

MD (MW)

Winter MD

(MW)

Annual Energy (GWh)

Summer MD

(MW)

Winter MD

(MW)

Annual Energy (GWh)

Scenario 1 – moderate growth, fast transformation

10% 37,203 38,611 214,771

40,872 43,095 259,709

50% 34,969 37,134 38,476 41,444

Scenario 2 – high growth, moderate transformation

10% 42,711 43,283 255,945

50,922 53,036 323,498

50% 40,122 41,627 48,020 51,005

Note: •  NEM is Winter peaking under all four cases due to contribution for rooftop solar PV •  Impact (if any) of EVs on Summer and Winter MD not captured above, as EV charging is

optimised based on generation availability

For comparison, in financial year 2010-11: •  Annual Energy was ~196,000 GWh •  Maximum Demand was ~34,000 MW (Summer peaking)

10% DSP

5% DSP

Utility PV

CST

Geothermal

Wind (on shore)

Wave

•  Historical hourly data for renewable generation by “polygons” will capture locational differences in resource quality

•  It will capture geographical (lack of) correlation and its impact on “smoothing” generation

•  Demand is still based on states

43 locational polygons covering the NEM region (with some additions)

SUPPLY SIDE OPTIONS

Costs based on BREE AETA 2012 study (and CSIRO adjustments)

Resource Max. installable generation capacity (GW)

Max. recoverable electricity (TWh/yr)

Wind – onshore (> 35% CF) 880 3,100

Wind – offshore (> 50% CF) 660 3,100

Solar – CST / PV 18,500 / 24,100 41,600 / 71,700

EGS (hot dry rocks) 5,140 36,040

HSA (sedimentary aquifer) 360 2,530

Biomass 16 110

Wave 130 280

Hydro 8 12

Total 25,700 / 31,300 86,800 / 116,900

Current NEM 50 200

SUPPLY SIDE RESOURCE ESTIMATES

500 times the capacity/recoverable energy needed

Source: BREE (2012)

SUPPLY SIDE TECHNOLOGY COSTS

Fossil technologies Renewable technologies

TRANSMISSION OPTIONS

Existing interconnectors

New supply-driven options

Major remote renewable resources

Major load centres

North QLD

South QLD

Darling Downs

Cooper Basin

EastNSW

TAS

VIC Mid/South SA

Flinders/Eyre

Broken Hill

Mid NSW

STORAGE OPTIONS $/

MW

h (l

og s

cale

)

Source: CSIRO and ROAM

COMBINING THE BUILDING BLOCKS – OVERALL MODELLING APPROACH

Demand data Generation data Storage data

Probabilistic modelling

Transmission review Operations review

Results

Unserved energy (USE) + storage check

Transmission data

5000 synthetic days 365 historical days (+detail)

Time sequential modelling

OPERATIONS REVIEW - CONSIDERATIONS

•  System inertia and frequency control •  Steady state and dynamic voltage control •  Fault ride through and other generation performance

standards of asynchronous devices (e.g. wind and PV) •  Ensuring minimum fault level infeed •  Variability and forecast uncertainty of wind and PV •  System ramping capability of dispatchable plant

•  Impact from decreasing amounts of synchronous and dispatchable generation common theme across all

OPERATIONS REVIEW – OUTCOMES

Synchronous generation: •  Metric used for assessment – percentage of synchronous

generation needed at any time •  CST/biomass out of merit dispatch to meet metric •  Add dispatchable synchronous plant to areas where metric

could not be met otherwise

Forecasting: •  Added extra dispatch costs due to forecasting uncertainty of

variable generation

Ramping: •  Calculate CST with three hour ramp rate as sensitivity (one

hour ramp rate used in main report)

TRANSMISSION REVIEW

•  Considered: o  HVAC vs HVDC o  Feasibility of maintaining

mainland NEM as one AC region •  Transmission network designed

to withstand a single credible contingency without loss of supply

•  Calculated transmission cost estimates as $/kW capacity for different locations.

•  Iterative process, as generation build was adjusted to account for transmission price signals, costs changed as well.

RESULTS - CAVEATS

•  The future is highly uncertain when looking out 40 years: o  New technologies could emerge o  The predicted cost of technologies will change o  Any changes to the inputs, assumptions and underlying

sensitivities could result in considerably different outcomes •  Costs are optimistic:

o  All the new generation is built at the forecast 2030 or 2050 costs taking full advantage of anticipated technology cost reductions (no pathway assumed)

o  Excludes a number of cost elements such land acquisition and potential distribution network upgrades

o  Also financing costs are simplified •  No BAU case

KEY OBSERVATIONS

•  A wide range of technologies and locations are likely to be needed

•  More capacity relative to maximum demand is likely to be required (200%) compared with today

•  The high level operational review found that operational issues appear manageable

•  Considerable solar PV generation in all four cases drives demand and load pattern changes

•  Considerable bioenergy could be required, however this may present some challenges with competing land uses.

GENERATION MIX - CAPACITY

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

S1 2030 S1 2050 S2 2030 S2 2050

Inst

alle

d ge

nera

tion

capa

city

(MW

)

Biogas

Hydro (incl. pumpedhydro)CST

PV (utility)

PV (rooftop)

Wind

Bagasse

Wave

Biomass

Geothermal

TRANSMISSION FLOW EXAMPLES

North QLD

South QLD

Cooper Basin

EastNSW

TAS

VICMid/South SA

Flinders/Eyre

Broken Hill

Mid NSW

North QLD

South QLD

Cooper Basin

EastNSW

TAS

VICMid/South SA

Flinders/Eyre

Mid NSW

Scenario 1 2030 Scenario 1 2050AC

HVDC

AC

HVDC

North QLD

South QLD

EastNSW

TAS

VICMid/South SA

Flinders/Eyre

Mid NSW

North QLD

South QLD

Darling Downs

EastNSW

TAS

VICMid/South SA

Flinders/Eyre

Mid NSW

Scenario 2 2030 Scenario 2 2050AC

HVDC

AC

HVDC

LOAD SHAPE

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

Mon 6 Jun Tue 7 Jun Wed 8 Jun Thu 9 Jun Fri 10 Jun Sat 11 Jun Sun 12 Jun

Supp

ly a

nd d

eman

d (h

ourly

ave

rage

) (M

W)

Geothermal Biomass (wood) Wave

Bagasse Wind (onshore) PV (rooftop)

PV (utility) Concentrated solar thermal Hydro (incl. pumped hydro)

Biogas Nominal demand Demand using flexibility

New load shape peak assuming flexible demand

Traditional load shape peak

IMPACT ON PRICES

Hypothetical wholesale prices Scenario 1

2030 ($/MWh)

Scenario 1 2050

($/MWh)

Scenario 2 2030

($/MWh)

Scenario 2 2050

($/MWh)

Total wholesale energy 111 112 128 133

Current wholesale energy (2012 estimate) 55 55 55 55

Additional wholesale energy 56 57 73 78

Additional transmission 10 10 6 6

Hypothetical retail prices Scenario 1

2030 (c/kWh)

Scenario 1 2050

(c/kWh)

Scenario 2 2030

(c/kWh)

Scenario 2 2050

(c/kWh)

Average additional retail 6.6 6.7 8.0 8.5

100% RENEWABLES RESULTS - IN HINDSIGHT

Future key technologies: •  Solar PV !!! •  Base load synchronous generation:

o  Geothermal o  Biomass

•  Load following/firming capacity o  Solar thermal w. storage o  Biogas fuelled gas turbines

Current key technologies that may be less relevant: •  Any thermal base load technologies •  Wind

Technologies likely to play a major role, but not covered: •  Battery storage

Issues with technology development/acceptance. What will then provide system inertia and fast MW response?

Yes – already impacting loadshape

Could still be an option

Could help solve some system integration issues along with say synchronous condensers

GROWTH OF PV IN THE NEM

Comparison of rooftop PV forecasts NEFR Fig 3

100% renewables Scen 1

100% renewables Scen 2

CURRENT RENEWABLE PENETRATION: SOME INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

Balancing Area Peak Demand Annual Energy Installed Wind (% peak)

Installed PV (% peak)

Texas 68,000 MW 340 TWh 12,400 MW (18%) 300 MW (0.4%)

NEM 35,000 MW 194 TWh 3,600 MW (10%) 3,440 MW (10%)

Ireland (all island) 6,600 MW 35.4 TWh 2,325 MW (35%) 1 MW (0%)

South Australia 3,400 MW 13.2 TWh 1,475 MW (43%) 565 MW (17%)

Hawaii (Oahu) 1,140 MW 7.0 TWh 99 MW (9%) 221 MW (19%)

Source: ERCOT, EirGrid, SONI, HECO

SOUTH AUSTRALIA: SOLAR PV

370 MW

Faster load ramp up

Comparing Boxing day 2011 with Boxing Day 2014

Mid-day low

Midnight peak

UNDERSTANDING DEMAND SIDE IMPACTS

•  Accurate forecasts for demand is important for both system and market

•  Demand is changing rapidly •  AEMO need to address this:

o  Solar forecasting system – stage 2 (rooftop PV) o  Battery forecasting system next? o  How will consumers act in the future:

Ø  Little engagement Ø  Active buyers (product innovation) Ø  Active buyers and sellers (potential disruptive technologies

and business models)

SOUTH AUSTRALIA: WIND PENETRATION

Additional wind farms are being built

Increase in rooftop PV reduces grid demand

More thermal plants will close

PERFORMANCE OF GENERATORS

LEARNING FROM ABROAD

Examples of projects overseas worth following: •  DS3: Program of work to facilitate higher penetration of

non-synchronous generation o  Ireland

•  SOF: System operability framework o  UK

•  Building synchronous condensers to reduce need for thermal generation in a high wind penetration system o  Denmark

DS3: DELIVERING A SECURE SUSTAINABLE ELECTRICITY SYSTEM

•  DS3 Programme Objective To develop solutions to the challenges associated with operating the power system in a secure, reliable and economic manner while achieving Ireland’s 2020 renewable electricity targets

DS3: RATE OF CHANGE OF FREQUENCY

Ireland currently has a system RoCoF limit of 0.5 Hz/sec, and is trying to raise it to 1 Hz/sec. An increased system RoCoF limit will be necessary to allow increased penetration of wind generation in the Irish system.

INCREASE OF SNSP TO 55% - SYSTEM TRIAL

http://www.eirgridgroup.com/how-the-grid-works/ds3-programme/

Curtailments

INCREASE OF SNSP TO 55% - SYSTEM TRIAL

http://www.eirgridgroup.com/how-the-grid-works/ds3-programme/

From 16 October to 8 January the SNSP was over 50% for 10% of the time

No fundamental difference in system behaviour between 50% to 55%

Operating system with SNSP up to 55% will reduce curtailment

Trial to end Q1 2016

NATIONALGRID – SOF 2015

http://www2.nationalgrid.com/UK/Industry-information/Future-of-Energy/System-Operability-Framework/

The System Operability Framework (SOF) 2015 outlines how the future o p e r a b i l i t y o f t h e e l e c t r i c i t y transmission system is expected to change in response to the impact of developments outlined in the Future Energy Scenarios (FES) 2015. It also highlights the new opportunities for developing more innovative solutions and serv ices to enhance the operability of the power networks in Great Britain.

SYSTEM OPERABILITY FRAMEWORK (SOF) 2015

http://www2.nationalgrid.com/UK/Industry-information/Future-of-Energy/System-Operability-Framework/

KEY MESSAGES – SOF 2015

•  System Inertia o  Continues to decline across all future energy scenarios o  30 – 40 % increase in primary frequency response

requirement in next 5 years o  By 2030, the response requirement will be between 3 to 4 times

today’s level •  Embedded Generation

o  Increases number of operability challenges but also potential for the provision of system services

o  Immediate need to review low frequency demand disconnection (LFDD)

•  System Strength and Resilience o  Natural support to the grid is significantly reduced o  Short circuit levels continue to reduce o  Voltage management continues to be growing challenge

http://www.ercot.com/content/meetings/rpg/keydocs/2013/1115/2013_11_15_Siemens_SynCon_Solutions_ERCOT_2.pdf

AUSTRALIA: RENEWABLE INTEGRATION IN SOUTH AUSTRALIA

FCAS PROVIDING UNITS

SA REGION INERTIA TREND

KEY MESSAGES

Importance of the Heywood Interconnector – secure and reliable operation of SA

Increasing need for changes to market arrangements or infrastructure to meet security and reliability expectations

Potential challenge to meet the FOS either during or following the loss of the Heywood Interconnector

AUFLS: Increasing probability that the emergency under frequency control schemes would not be able to manage the impact of separation

OFGS: increasing importance of having an effective OFGS scheme

AEMO APPROACH GOING FORWARD

Short-term 3-year outlook

Long-term 10-year outlook

Transparency and clarity in how AEMO intends to meet its obligations for system security and reliability

Adapt AEMO’s functions and processes to deliver ongoing power system security and reliability

To identify, rank and promote resolution where appropriate of long-term technical challenges of operating the power system to inform

the need for policy, procedural or regulatory changes.

Initially focussed on South Australia then NEM-wide focus.

Review of procedures for operational management of the power system for a range of operating conditions including system normal, credible and non-credible contingencies.

Where issues are identified, development of modified strategies within the current regulatory framework if

necessary.

Consult with industry technical experts to identify and prioritise technical challenges.

Research, modelling and analysis to confirm the

nature and timing of any power system risks.

Promotion of regulatory change with appropriate agencies where appropriate.

Clear operational strategies for the next three years with procedures in place for any identified

risks.

Prioritised list of issues, and recommendations for progressing their resolution through changes to policy, regulatory, rules, procedural,

technical or other mechanisms as appropriate.

Obj

ectiv

e A

ppro

ach

Out

com

es

Questions?

The 100% renewables report is available online: http://webarchive.nla.gov.au/gov/20140211235355/http://www.climatechange.gov.au/reducing-carbon/australian-energy-market-operator/100-cent-renewables-study-modelling-outcomes

“GREEN GAS” FOR FIRMING INTERMITTENCY

This is already build (sunk cost)

More information: •  http://www.energyvalley.nl/uploads/bestanden/338c5586-2572-46e6-a760-401f7a7a8655 •  www.youtube.com/watch?v=50Jgkznud9g

“GREEN GAS” FOR FIRMING INTERMITTENCY

High energy density of gas (vs hydrogen and battery storage technologies) and ability to gradually use existing storage facilities makes this attractive.

Estimated future size of storage options in Denmark

renewable technologies in the future...

Documents