renewable energy - presentation for the rockefeller foundation and council on foreign relations

7/31/2019 RENEWABLE ENERGY - Presentation for the Rockefeller Foundation and Council on Foreign Relations

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MINISTRIO DO PLANEJAMENTO

BRAZILIAN MAIN ENERGY

SECTOR GOAL:

FOR ENERGY, WITH ACLEANER, RENEWABLE, RELIABLE AND

SUSTAINABLE ENERGY SUPPLY.


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ENERGY SECTOR: INSTITUTIONAL

MME - Ministry of Mining and Energy: responsible for theenergetic planning, is the incumbent of sectors policiesconception and implementation.

-

guidelines regarding the sector, that shall be followed by theMME. The council is subordinated to the Presidency.

Energetic Research Company EPE: responsible for the

studies that base the policies that are implemented by theMME, according its own demands.


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ELECTRIC ENERGY: ONS - NATIONAL SYSTEM OPERATOR:

Inde endent, coordinates and controls the o eration of

production, transmission, distribution and commercializationof electric energy.

LANDMARK; 2004 New Electric Sector InstitutionalModel aims at boosting private investment;


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REGULATORY AGENCIES:ELECTRIC ENERGY

ANEEL - NATIONAL AGENCY FOR ELECTRIC ENERGY: Linked to

production, transmission, distribution and commercializationof the electric energy.

OIL & GAS ANP- NATIONAL AGENCY FOR OIL, NATURAL GAS AND

BIOFUEL: Under the structure of the MME, it regulates andsupervises the activities of these industries; executes thenational policies concerning them, promotes bids andcontracts with concessionaires.


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ENERGY PLANNING

SCENARIOSPDEE Decennial Plan for Energy Expansion: SHORTAND MIDDLE TERM PLANNING

PLANNING FOR THE NEXT 10 YEARS (CURRENT: PDEE 2008-2017)

PNE National Plan of Energy: LONG TERM PLANNING

PLANNING FOR THE NEXT 25 YEARS (CURRENT: PNE 2030)


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INTERNAL OFFER OF ENERGY

80%

90%

100%

54,6%

BRAZIL AND WORLD: INTERNAL OFFER OF ENERGY

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

BRAZIL (2008) WORLD (2006)

45,4%

12,9%

87,1%NON-RENEWABLE

RENEWABLE

Source: Resenha Energtica Brasileira; 2009


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80%

90%

100%

57 7% 54,1% 53,4%

BRAZIL: TENDENCY

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

1998 2007 2030

42,3% 45,9% 46,6%

NON-RENEWABLE

RENEWABLE

Source: PNE 2030; EPE


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70%

80%

90%

100%

46,5%

37,4%

28,0% Oil

Natural Gas

BRAZIL: TENDENCY, BY SOURCE

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

1998 2007 2030

1,9% 3,2%9,1%

13,6%15,9%

18,5%11,5%

12,0%

5,5%15,3%

14,9% 13,5%0,8%

1,4% 3,0%6,7%6,0%

6,9%3,7%

9,3%

,

Coal

Nuclear

Hidraulic

Firewood and Vegetal Coal

Sugar Cane and derived

Other Renewable

Source: PNE 2030; EPE


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RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCESElectric Energy


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RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCESFOR BIOFUEL:

Plants in 2007

(units)

Production 2007 -

(billions of

liters/year)

Plants in 2010

(estimated)

Production

2010 - billions

of liters/year

estimated

Investment

2007-2010 (U$

billions)

ETHANOL - PLANTS, PRODUCTION AND INVESTMENT

350 18 422 23,3 6,5

Plants in 2008

(units)

Production 2007 -

(billions of

liters/year)

Plants in 2010(estimated)

Production

2010 - billions

of liters/year(estimated)

Investment

2008-2010 (U$

billions)

62 1,2 108 3,3 1,2

BIODIESEL - PLANTS, PRODUCTION AND INVESTMENT


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46 NEW PLANTS

UNTIL 2010

ETHANOL PLANTS


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BIODIESEL PLANTS

z

Operation in 2007Start building in 2007Planning/Project stage


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RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCESFOR ELECTRIC ENERGY: BRAZIL HAS ALREADY 88,4% OF ITS ELECTRICITY GENERATED FROM

RENEWABLE SOURCES, MAINLY FROM HYDROPOWER PLANTS. HOWEVER, THE WHOLE REMAINIG HYDROPOWER POTENTIAL IS SET TO BE

PUT IN PRODUCTION BY 2030.

CONVENTIONAL SOURCES

HydroelectricityALTERNATIVE RENEWABLE SOURCES

Wind Power Biomass: co-generation electricity and thermal (uses: Vegetal >

bagasse, rice straw, others; Organic waste; Biofluids - vegetal

oils) PCH - Small Hidropower Plants Solar Photo-voltaic (PV) Tidal Power Geothermal Osmotic


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RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCESITAIP HYDROELETRIC PLANT - PRODUCTION CAPACITY: 14 GW


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RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCESOSRIO WIND POWER PLANT - PRODUCTION CAPACITY:

150 MW


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PACGrowth Acceleration ProgramInvestments in Energy

Programs 2007 2008-2010 2007-2010 After 2010

Eletric Generation 11,5 54,4 65,9 20,7

, , , ,

Oil and Gas 35,9 143,1 179,0 138,1Renewables Fuels 3,3 14,1 17,4 27,0

Sum 55,0 219,8 274,8 189,2

R$ billions


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Incentives to adopt Alternative Sources of Energy Brazilian hydropower known potentials shall all be in use, by 2030; Hydroelectric plants need complementary sources, as their production

varies each season;

Lesser use of fossil sources (natural gas) that are used to complementhydropower plants. They are not desirable due to their CO2 and otheremissions;

Development of new industries related to these alternative sources; Universalization of electricity in distant places, where only a localized

production (Wind Power NE / Solar PV - N) can reach them; Guarantee of access to the sources and power supply, natural

occurrence, not imported; Optimization of the use of water resources, where they are critical (NE)


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Barriers to the use of Alternative Sources of Energy Still higher cost to produce from these sources, when compared with

fossil sources. Some are on their way to bridge the gap ( WindPower, Biomass, PCH)

The present stage of some promising sources technologies is stillincipient or beginning ( Solar PV, Tidal Power, Geothermal ).

The need for incentives and special (exemptions) taxes policies, todevelop them into a competitive stage.

Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) and Carbon Credits markets:national small producers dont access these mechanisms to financeprojects and optimize their costs.


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RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCESPUBLIC POLICIES

2004 PROINFA (Targeted at WindPower, Biomass and PCH)- Objective: increase alternative sources in the electricity supply.

- , .

- Technology development- Creation of an industry for these sources- Target: to contract 3,300 MW of renewable alternative sources, 1/3

of each.

- Most of the plants contracted were implemented or underconstruction. Financing by BNDES (government fomenting)- The program has been substituted by a new strategic approach.


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RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCESPUBLIC POLICIES

Current- Specific supply bids for each source, contracts for 20 years.- Wide array of tax exemptions for the plants and its supply chain.- Energy planning: alternative sources shall represent 10% of the

electricity supply, by 2030.Results- Prices have been declining, since this policy started.- Last bid for Wind Power Electricity reached a price as low as U$

80/MWh, close to Natural Gas prices. In the bid, 783 MW (avarage)were bought, representing contracts that totalized U$ 10.5 billion,from 71 new Wind Power plants.

- New companies have shown interest to operate in Brazil, aiming

these new market > technology transference.


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RENEWABLE ENERGY SOURCESWIND POWERWIND POWER ELECTRICITYELECTRICITY

Onshore potential up to 300 GW offshore still to be evaluated; Renewable, reliable, clean and sustainable source for electricenergy;

Technology matured, prices down > economic viability; .

Free and open access to the source > does not depend of foreignmarkets; Can stimulate regional development in deprived areas (NE); Complementary to hydropower plants, mainly in the NE. Optimize

use of water resources;

Allow the development of a new industry, acquiring of newtechnologies. But, technology should be adapted to Brazils specificities, to be

able to produce electricity with greater capacity factor.


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MAP OF THE WIND

POWER - ELETRIC

POTENTIAL IN BRAZIL

Source:ANEEL, 2005.


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THANK YOU!


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ENERGY PLANNINGMAIN DRIVERS THAT WILL IMPACT INTERNAL

DEMAND FOR ENERGY, IN 2010-2017: DEMAND ELASTICITY VS. GROWTH OF

INVESTMENT, POPULATION AND GDP:*

energy consumption that shall accumulate 47,7% in this period. MEAN RATE OF INVESTMENTS : 20% > Generalized impact, most

on industrial energy consumption.

MEAN POPULATION ANUAL GROWTH: 1,2% > Accumulated for the

period: 10%. (Will add new 12 million consumers ) Major impacton residential consumption.

MEAN HOUSEHOLDS ANUAL GROWTH: 2,2% > (Will add 9 millionhouseholds). Consumer energy demand, specially electricity)


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ENERGY PLANNING

ELECTRICITY DEMANDGENERAL ELASTICITY-INCOME (GDP per capita):

1% of GDP growth : 1.3% demand growth

EXPECTED EXPANSION OF ELECTRIC ENERGYCONSUMPTION IN 2017: 221.000 GWh

Need for new 25,5 GW of production capacity = 2Itaips* over the next 8 years)

renewable energy - presentation for the rockefeller foundation and council on foreign relations

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