remarks by mark pearson independent community bankers nashville, tennessee march 12, 2012
TRANSCRIPT
WHAT’S AHEADFOR
COMMODITY PRICES &
FARMLAND VALUES
Remarks by Mark PearsonIndependent Community Bankers
Nashville, TennesseeMarch 12, 2012
Corn Use: Fuel versus Food
Source: USDA
‘02
EthanolFeed
6
4
2
0
Bushels
‘03 ‘05‘04 ‘06 ‘08‘07 ‘09 ‘10 ‘11
USDA Corn Supply and Use 2010/11 est. (2/9/12) 2011/2012 proj.
Area Planted 88.2 91.9Area Harvested 81.4 84.0Yield 152.8 147.2Beginning Stocks 1,708 1,128Production 12,447 12,358Imports 28 20Supply, Total 14,182 13,506Feed & Residual 4,793 4,600Food, Seed & Industrial 6,428 6,405Domestic Use, Total 11,220 11,005Exports 1,835 1,700Use, Total 13,055 12,705Ending Stocks 1,128 801Average Farm Price $5.18 $5.80-$6.60
Compliments of PHI Marketing
World Corn Supply and Use 2009-10 2010-11 (est.) 2011-12 (proj.)
Beginning Stocks 147.54 144.18 128.83
Production 819.23 827.54 864.11
Imports 89.76 91.34 92.84
Feed 488.48 494.41 510.83
Total 822.60 842.89 867.59
Exports 96.82 90.45 94.93
Ending Stocks 144.18 128.83 125.35
Million Metric Tons
Compliments of PHI Marketing
Brazil’s Big Ag Expansion 2011-21
Source: DTN
75%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
Coffee Soybeans CottonExports
Production
24% 46% 36% 39% 48% 68%
USDA Soybean Supply and Use
2010/11 Est. (2/9/12) 2011/2012 Projected
Area Planted 77.4 75.0
Area Harvested 76.6 73.6
Yield (bushels per acre) 43.5 41.5
Beginning Stocks 151 215
Production 3,329 3,056
Imports 14 15
Supply, Total 3,495 3,286
Crush 1,648 1,615
Exports 1,501 1,275
Seed 87 88
Residual 43 32
Use, Total 3,280 3,011
Ending Stocks 215 275
Average Farm Price $11.30 $11.10-$12.30
Compliments of PHI Marketing
World Soybean Supply and Use 2009/10 2010/11 (est.)
2011/2012(Proj.)
Beginning Stocks 42.72 59.60 68.90Production 260.85 264.18 251.47Imports 86.83 88.83 90.76Crush 209.50 221.09 227.42Total 238.25 251.74 258.05Exports 92.55 91.97 92.79Ending Stocks 59.60 68.90 60.28
Million Metric Tons
Compliments of PHI Marketing
USDA Wheat Supply and Use
2010/11 (2/9/12) 2011/2012 Projected
Area Planted 53.6 54.4
Area Harvested 47.6 45.7
Yield (bushels per acre) 46.3 43.7
Beginning Stocks 976 862
Production 2,207 1,999
Imports 97 120
Supply, Total 3,279 2,982
Food 926 935
Seed 71 82
Feed & Residual 132 145
Exports 1,289 1,162
Use, Total 2,417 2,137
Ending Stocks 862 845
Average Farm Price $5.70 $7.15-$7.45
Compliments of PHI Marketing
World Wheat Supply and Use
2009/10 2010/11(est.) 2011/2012 (Proj.)
Beginning Stocks 167.05 202.34 200.70
Production 685.43 651.61 692.88
Imports 133.58 130.07 135.91
Feed 115.36 112.42 130.66
Total 650.14 653.24 680.48
Exports 135.80 131.82 140.25
Ending Stocks 202.34 200.70 213.10
Million Metric Tons
Compliments of PHI Marketing
• Recovering economy• Demographics will drive ag/food product demand• Next world industrial expansion: Africa• U.S. continues to be ag technology leader• U.S., China will drive African development• Infrastructure build-out continues in South America• ‘Youth bulge’ means growth in Middle East, but continued destabilization following Arab Spring• What’s this mean for you: Continued strong demand for U.S. agricultural commodities
Globally Local World: What’s Ahead