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Anand Rathi Research

Time Horizon – 12 Months

March 27, 2017

Source: Company Reports, Anand Rathi Research, Ace Equity

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Analyst: Ridhi Mehta [email protected]

Relative stock performance (Mar’16=100)

CMP: ` 726

Target: ̀ 1095

Shareholding Pattern (as on Dec’16)

UPL Limited (UPL)

RISK MEDIUM

Bloomberg Code UPLL IN

NSE Code UPL

Sector CHEMICALS

Industry PESTICIDES & AGROCHEMICALS

Face Value (`) 2

BV per share (` ) 153.38

Dividend yield (%) 0.70%

52 Week H/L (`) 754/442.75

Market Cap (` mn. ) 364088.99

Key Data

Dec-16 Sep-16 Jun-16 Mar-16

Promoters 30% 28% 30% 30%

Non-Institutional 12% 19% 12% 13%

Institutional 58% 53% 58% 57%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100%

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

NIFTY 500 UPL

(In ` mn) FY2015 FY2016 FY2017E FY2018E FY2019E

Net Sales 120,905 133,015 151,637 174,383 202,284

EBITDA 23,549 28,138 33,045 39,114 46,421

EBITDA Margin (%) 18.7% 20.3% 21.0% 21.7% 22.3%

EPS (`) 33.0 26.5 33.0 42.7 54.7

Ev/Sales (x) 3.2 3.0 2.6 2.3 1.9

Ev/EBITDA (x) 17.3 14.8 12.5 10.4 8.6

P/E (x) 31.6 27.4 22.0 17.0 13.3

Price Performance CY13 CY14 CY15 CY16 YTD

Absolute 52% 75% 26% 48% 12%

Relative 48% 37% 27% 44% -2%

NIFTY 4% 38% -1% 4% 13%

2 Anand Rathi Research

UPL Limited (UPL)

Founded in 1969 by Mr. R. D. Shroff (Chairman), UPL Limited is a global crop protection company of Indian origin. UPL has

transformed from a crop protection chemical provider to a complete crop solutions partner. It has evolved into an end-to-end

solutions provider - from seeds to pre-harvest products to post-harvest solutions.

UPL’s product portfolio comprises fungicides, herbicides, insecticides, plant growth regulators, rodenticides, specialty chemicals,

nutri-feeds, seeds and seed treatment products. It has transformed business successfully from generic to branded products and

diversified into new products and geographies.

UPL’s investments in research and innovation have helped the Company generate 136 patents and more than 4,900 product

registrations worldwide. UPL’s products are marketed in around 120 countries (through 74 subsidiaries), strengthening its global

positioning and de-risking the business from and excessive dependence on any single region.

The Company has 11 Unimart stores across India, providing farmers with a one-stop-shop for farm solutions (including

agricultural information).

UPL has consistently gained market share on the back of diversified product offerings, continuous launch of new products,

aggressive marketing and brand building exercise and friendly return and credit policies for the channel partners. It has seen

steady growth and maintained its market share in a competitive and uncertain environment.

On financial front, the company has shown exponential growth on all fronts. We believe that wide & strong geographic spread to

help churn out volume led growth. At CMP of INR 726, the stock is trading at PE of 17x its FY18E EPS & 13.3 x its FY19E EPS. We

Initiating our coverage on UPL Limited with “BUY” recommendation and target price of `1095 per share.


One Of The Youngest Global Crop Protection Chemical Company


Well diversified & strong product portfolio –across Agri-inputs and Crops

Fruits & Vegetables

39%

Soyabean & OilCrops

12% Cotton

6%

Rice 24%

Surgarcane 3%

Wheat 2%

Corn 2% Other

12%

Total FY16: US$1,985mm

24% 21% 27% 27%

52%

44%

28% 28% 24%

5% 33% 25% 28%

48%

27% 18% 20%

12%

9%

10.%

30.%

50.%

70.%

90.%

110.%

FY94 FY03 FY09 FY14 FY16

Steadily evolving into an all encompassing product portfolio

Herbicides Insecticides Fungicides Others Seeds (Advanta)

Diversified portfolio of crops with products catering to more than 10 major crop sectors

Soybean and oil crops are the major crop segment in Brazil with a revenue share of ~53%; whereas in rest of Latin America they contribute

~26% to the revenue

USA and AME sees maximum product sales in the sector of fruits and vegetables - ~60% and ~66% of revenue respectively comes from this

crop segment

India has a more balanced portfolio with Cotton, rice and F&V contributing 31%, 25% and 16% respectively.

UPL Limited (UPL)



UPL Limited (UPL) Comprehensive Product Portfolio…..



Branded sales & cost control driving best-in-class profitability


UPL prudently invested in brand-building based on the understanding that branded products command a premium over

commoditized ones.

The Company created a branded generic portfolio where more than 85% of revenues were derived from the branded portfolio.

The Company’s innovative products effectively address the evolving needs of farmers across the world.

94% 90% 95% 78% 75%

85%

6% 10% 5% 22% 25%

15%

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

North America

Europe Latin America

India RoW Overall

Branded sales contribution in various target markets

Branded Generic

75%

80%

85%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

FY14 FY 15 FY16

Branded sales as % of total sales

UPL Limited (UPL)


UPL is a holistic farming solution provider – from seeds, seed

treatment and crop protection chemicals through pre-harvest and

post-harvest solutions.

Reduces losses: The Company curtails post-harvest losses through

its wide fumigants range. It is also a leader in hot and cold fogging

and warehousing disinfection.

Service: The Company engaged an application company for the

aerial spraying of pesticides in select countries; the Company

established Adarsh Farm Services in India to spray pesticides using

high-tech equipment.

Solutions: The Company commissioned Kisan Call Centres to

address farmer queries (more than a million farmers serviced).

Advisory: The Company advised farmers in cultivating fruits and

vegetables in view of long-term price improvement prospects,

strengthening farm viability.

The result: UPL has graduated from a relatively limited access to

enduring farmer relationships the world over.

UPL Limited (UPL)


Complete Farmer Solutions


UPL Limited (UPL)

Manufacturing capabilities creating leadership position in Crop Protection market


While a number of crop protection chemical companies source material from bulk manufacturers with the objective to package & market to

farmers, UPL selects to directly manufacture instead. The Company has 28 manufacturing units (13 in India, 7 in Europe, 1 in North America,

4 in Latin America and 3 in Rest of World). Large manufacturing facilities for Mancozeb, Aluminium Phosphide, Pendimethalin and Acephate

capacities, translating into economies of scale and competitive costs.

Manufacturing capabilities creating leadership position in Crop Protection market

Flexible capacity making it possible to alter the product mix on

demand.

Progressively reinvested in manufacturing assets:- Substantial

capacities have been added in the past 5 years. 50% of its

manufacturing locations are located overseas.

Continued focus on reliability, energy conservation and margin

improvement

Quality assurance measures:-Monitoring of quality at vendor,

manufacturing, transportation and customer ends.

Effective safety measures across all aspects of operation:-

Minor incidents reported and corrected diligently.


UPL Limited (UPL)

Global footprint with presence across 120+ countries


Concentrating on high-growth geographies

The company is poised to capture opportunities arising out

of Asia, Africa and Latin America, markets that are expected

to account for 75% of primary agricultural production.

Presence: The Company is present in most high-growth

agro markets through manufacturing capacities in or

proximate to those markets. It has sales presence across

120+ countries that account for 90% of the world’s food

basket while physical presence in 40+ countries through

subsidiaries and associates. It has manufacturing presence

across 28sites including 2 JVs (13 in India and 15

international)

Portfolio: The Company possesses a range of products that

address varied climate, soil and seed varieties in different

geographies.

Robust: The Company enjoys a strong line of products for

rice, wheat and potato, the most widely-consumed food

crops.


Exclusive global sales force and network of distributors creating a demand pull

UPL Limited (UPL)



UPL Limited (UPL) Deeper and wider presence


UPL has consistently widened and deepened its reach

through the following initiatives:

Adarsh Kisan Call Centre: Call centre for farmers.

Toll-free access in six languages across 365 days.

Provide free guidance for key crops (land

preparation to realizations). Registered more than a

million farmers. Address more than 100,000 calls a

month.

Adarsh Farm Services: Offer spray services using hi-

tech tractors mounted with spraying equipment.

Covered more than 100,000 acres (wheat, cotton,

potato, cluster bean, ground nut, cumin, various

pulses and orchards of quinoa, pomegranate and

grapes). Benefited about 15,000 farmers. Helped

save labor costs.

Unimart: Farm advisory and solution centres. To be

scaled (from 11 centres in India).

Conclusion

Engagement: UPL appointed professionals to engage with farmers to

showcase product efficacy and strengthen relationships leading to

prospective sale

Branding: UPL increased branding and marketing spending to

enhance market visibility

Solution: UPL commissioned 11 Unimart stores across India to

market agricultural inputs, provide knowhow and train farmers in

enhancing productivity

The result: The Company increased revenues at a CAGR of 12% in

the five years leading to 2015-16.


Local registrations expertise in key geographies

UPL Limited (UPL)



UPL – ADVANTA Merger Will Enhance The Value

UPL Limited (UPL)

UPL decided to merge its associate company Advanta, a key global player in hybrid seeds, with the objective to gain a closer

access to farmers and emerge as a complete crop solutions provider.

How the merger will enhance value

Seed treatment:

Seed treatment formulations

Value-added offerings

Access to Advanta’s portfolio

Products for sorghum, canola, sunflower, corn, wheat and vegetable

End-to-end farmer solutions From seeds to pre-harvest to post-

harvest

Collaborative research and development

Greater ability to offer complementary products across crop

protection chemicals and seeds.

Farmer engagement:

Wider, deeper and early access to farmers

Financials

Margin-accretive business of Advanta; tax,

general and administration cost savings;

Advanta will capitalise on UPL’s Balance Sheet

strength to access lower cost working capital; This

will generate a cumulative annual saving of more

than USD 14 million. Source: Company Reports, Anand Rathi Research, Ace Equity


Strong in-house R&D capabilities

Strong R&D capabilities and product innovation driving competitive advantage

2.50%

5.0%

14.0%

FY14 FY15 FY16

Innovation rates (sales of new products/ overall sales)

7.80%

5.20%

3.10%

1.30% 1.10%

Sumitomo FMC UPL Nufarm Adama

R&D expense as % of sales (2014)

UPL Limited (UPL)



UPL Limited (UPL) Industry Has Strong Fundamental Growth Drivers

Source: Company Reports, Anand Rathi Research, Ace Equity, Tata Strategic Report

Indian agrochemicals market will be driven by growth in herbicides and fungicides, increasing awareness towards judicious use of

agrochemicals, contract manufacturing and export opportunities. At present, per hectare consumption of pesticides in India is amongst the

lowest in the world and stands at 0.6 kg/ha against 5-7 kg/ha in the UK and ~ 13 kg/ha in China. With the increase in awareness and market

penetration, consumption is likely to improve in the near future.

Insecticides are the largest sub-segment of agrochemicals with 60% market share, whereas herbicides with16% market share are the fastest

growing segment in India. India is the fourth largest global producer of agrochemicals after the US, Japan and China. This segment

generated a value of USD 4.4 billion in FY15 and is expected to grow at 7.5% per annum to reach USD 6.3 billion by FY20. Approximately

50% of the demand comes from domestic consumers and the rest from exports. During the same period, the domestic demand is expected

to grow at 6.5% per annum and exports at 9% per annum.

Critical Challenges faced by India agriculture

High monsoon dependency;

Unpredictable weather patterns

Reduction in arable land;

Decreasing farm sizes;

Low per hectare yield

Increasing pest attacks

Strong fundamental growth drivers

Growing population leading to higher need for agri-output

Reduction in arable land due to increasing urbanization -focus on

yield/ productivity

Changing dietary preferences driving higher demand for protein and

nutrients

Food security is a key focus area for all countries

Intensification of agriculture in emerging markets


UPL Limited (UPL)

Indian Crop Protection Market Split Indian State Wise Crop Protection Market Split

Crop Protection- Sizeable Market With stable Growth

Indian Crop Protection Market ($ Bn)

Agrochemicals going off patent, 2016-2020 ($ Bn)

Opportunity in Generic Products

Industry Has Strong Fundamental Growth Drivers



UPL Limited (UPL)

Significant consolidation is driving few companies to emerge as leaders



Crop Protection industry, market position

Post patent products have been gaining market share

Highly consolidated industry with the innovator companies (Syngenta, Bayer, BASF, Dow, Monsanto and DuPont) accounting for c.77% of the

conventional crop protection industry’s sales1in 2015. Innovators built economies of scale and focused on innovation with brands -barriers

for new entrants

Post patent players have been consolidating their position by acquisitions, entering into cooperative agreements with other Post patents,

acquiring brands from innovators etc. Post-patent players actively working on newer formulations, mixtures and combination products

which are gaining market share due to resistance issues.

The rate of new product introductions has been steadily declining over the last few years. Post patent products accounted for 58% of the

world markets in 2014 compared to 30% in 2000. Lower rate of introduction of new active ingredients. Several patented active ingredients

expected to go off patent form an attractive opportunity for post patent/off patent companies

UPL Limited (UPL)



Favourable industry dynamics towards post-patent space

Source: Philip McDougall, May 2013 1 Total = US$51.2bn (source Philip McDougall, as of 2015); 2 As of 2014

UPL Limited (UPL)



UPL is best placed in the industry

Well supported by its key pillars and a strong foundation

UPL Limited (UPL)



UPL has protected its Balance Sheet despite extensive

investments in reach expansion, portfolio growth and

capacity increase. The Company’s stringent working capital

management ensured that the net working capital cycle was

91 days of turnover in 2015-16. It has strengthened its net

debt-equity ratio from 0.64 in FY12 to 0.47 in FY16. UPL’s

financial robustness enhanced the Company’s calculated

risk-taking appetite, absorb temporary downturns and

expand its business.

UPL Limited (UPL)


Superior Performance with Conservative Approach

91857

107709 120905 133015

20000

60000

100000

140000

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16

Net Revenue (In mn)

17.80%

18.60% 18.70%

20.30%

16342 20027

22638 27020

16.00%

17.00%

18.00%

19.00%

20.00%

21.00%

10000

15000

20000

25000

30000

FY13 FY14 FY15 FY16

Operational Efficiency

EBITDA EBITDAM

90

112 116

86 90

125 124

91

60

80

100

120

140

Inventory Receivables Payables Net Working Capital

Working Capital Analysis (Days)

FY15

FY16


UPL Limited (UPL)

Competitive Analysis

Particulars FY16 FY16 FY16

INR (Mn) UPL Bayers Cropscience FMC Corp

Sales 130827 36441 220535

Sales Growth (%) 9.8 0.8 0.2

EBITDA 27222 4192 48065

EBITDAM (%) 20.8 11.5 21.8

PAT 13070 3009 25514

PATM (%) 10 8.3 11.6

ROCE (%) 20.5 15.9 10.9

Market Cap 366041 133512 532480

EV/EBITDA 8.57 30.09 16.87

Source: Company Reports, Anand Rathi Research, Ace Equity, Bloomberg


UPL has consistently gained market share on the back of

diversified product offerings, continuous launch of new

products, aggressive marketing and brand building exercise

and friendly return and credit policies for the channel partners.

It has seen steady growth and maintained its market share in a

competitive and uncertain environment.

On financial front, the company has shown steady growth on

all fronts. We believe that wide & strong geographic spread to

help churn out volume led growth. At CMP of INR 726, the

stock is trading at PE of 16.9x its FY18E EPS & 13.2 x its FY19E

EPS. We Initiating our coverage on UPL Limited with “BUY”

recommendation and target price of `1095 per share.

Relative stock performance (Mar’16=100)

Valuation and Recommendation:

UPL Limited (UPL)


80

100

120

140

160

180

200

NIFTY 500 UPL


EPS (`) 23.0 26.5 33.0 42.7 54.7

P/E (x) 31.6 27.4 22.0 17.0 13.3

P/B (x) 6.3 5.4 4.4 3.7 3.1

ROE 20% 20% 20% 22% 23%

ROCE 28% 27% 28% 30% 33%

Ev/EBITDA (x) 17.3 14.8 12.5 10.4 8.6


Consolidated Financials:

UPL Limited (UPL)



Net Sales 120,905 133,015 151,637 174,383 202,284

Total Expenditure 98,267 105,995 119,793 136,542 157,175

EBITDA (Excl OI) 22,638 27,020 31,844 37,841 45,109

Other Income 911 1,117 1,201 1,273 1,311

EBITDA 23,549 28,138 33,045 39,114 46,421

Depreciation 4,245 5,017 6,451 7,111 7,771

EBIT 19,304 23,121 26,594 32,004 38,650

Interest 5,170 6,223 6,206 5,606 4,856

PBT 14,104 16,259 20,388 26,398 33,794

Tax 2,440 2,830 3,670 4,752 6,083

PAT 11,664 13,430 16,718 21,646 27,711

Margins FY2015 FY2016 FY2017E FY2018E FY2019E

Sales Growth % 12.3% 10.0% 14.0% 15.0% 16.0%

Operating Margin % 18.7% 20.3% 21.0% 21.7% 22.3%

Net Margin % 9.6% 10.1% 11.0% 12.4% 13.7%


LIABILITIES

Shareholders’ Funds 58,603 67,907 84,220 99,942 119,437

Equity Share Capital 857 857 1,014 1,014 1,014

Reserves and Surplus 57,746 67,050 83,206 98,928 118,423

Non Current Liabilities 24,301 27,404 28,181 24,844 19,591

Long-term borrowings 16,941 21,864 22,756 18,687 12,950

Deferred Tax Liabilities 446 (52) (52) (52) (52)

Other Long Term Liabilities 6,915 5,592 5,477 6,209 6,694

Current Liabilities 59,935 72,669 75,545 82,223 88,388

Total Liabilities 142,839 167,980 187,947 207,010 227,416

ASSETS

Non Current Assets 57,954 67,287 78,163 81,628 85,106

Fixed Assets 40,308 46,491 55,041 58,930 62,160

Long Term Loans and Advances 4,179 5,371 6,217 5,231 5,057

Other Non-Current Assets 13,467 15,425 16,905 17,466 17,890

Current Assets 84,885 100,692 109,784 125,381 142,308

TOTAL-ASSETS 142,839 167,980 187,947 207,009 227,414


Forex fluctuation

Seasonality

Key Risks:

UPL Limited (UPL)

Source: Company Reports, Anand Rathi Research


Rating and Target Price history:

UPL rating details UPL rating history & price chart

Source: Ace Equity, Anand Rathi Research Source: Ace Equity, Anand Rathi Research

NOTE: Prices are as on 27th Mar. 2017 close.

UPL Limited (UPL)

Date Rating Target Price Share Price

27-Mar-2017 BUY 1095 726

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

NIFTY 500 UPL


UPL Limited (UPL)

Disclaimer:

Research Disclaimer and Disclosure inter-alia as required under Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014

Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Ltd. (hereinafter refer as ARSSBL) (Research Entity) is a subsidiary of the Anand Rathi Financial Services Ltd. ARSSBL is a corporate

trading and clearing member of Bombay Stock Exchange Ltd, National Stock Exchange of India Ltd. (NSEIL), Multi Stock Exchange of India Ltd (MCX-SX), United stock

exchange and also depository participant with National Securities Depository Ltd (NSDL) and Central Depository Services Ltd. ARSSBL is engaged into the business of

Stock Broking, Depository Participant, Mutual Fund distributor.

The research analysts, strategists, or research associates principally responsible for the preparation of Anand Rathi Research have received compensation based upon

various factors, including quality of research, investor client feedback, stock picking, competitive factors, firm revenues.

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constitute a personal recommendation or take into account the particular investment objectives, financial situations, or needs of individual clients. The

recommendations, if any, made herein are expression of views and/or opinions and should not be deemed or construed to be neither advice for the purpose of

purchase or sale of any security, derivatives or any other security through ARSSBL nor any solicitation or offering of any investment /trading opportunity on behalf of

the issuer(s) of the respective security (ies) referred to herein. These information / opinions / views are not meant to serve as a professional investment guide for the

readers. No action is solicited based upon the information provided herein. Recipients of this Report should rely on information/data arising out of their own

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damages, including lost profits arising in any way whatsoever from the information / opinions / views contained in this Report. The price and value of the investments

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aspects of any potential investment.

Continued…


UPL Limited (UPL)

Disclaimer:

Contd. Opinions expressed are our current opinions as of the date appearing on this Research only. We do not undertake to advise you as to any change of our views expressed in this Report. Research Report may differ between ARSSBL’s RAs and/ or ARSSBL’s associate companies on account of differences in research methodology, personal judgment and difference in time horizons for which recommendations are made. User should keep this risk in mind and not hold ARSSBL, its employees and associates responsible for any losses, damages of any type whatsoever. ARSSBL and its associates or employees may; (a) from time to time, have long or short positions in, and buy or sell the investments in/ security of company (ies) mentioned herein or (b) be engaged in any other transaction involving such investments/ securities of company (ies) discussed herein or act as advisor or lender / borrower to such company (ies) these and other activities of ARSSBL and its associates or employees may not be construed as potential conflict of interest with respect to any recommendation and related information and opinions. Without limiting any of the foregoing, in no event shall ARSSBL and its associates or employees or any third party involved in, or related to computing or compiling the information have any liability for any damages of any kind. Details of Associates of ARSSBL and Brief History of Disciplinary action by regulatory authorities & its associates are available on our website i. e. www.rathionline.com Disclaimers in respect of jurisdiction: This report is not directed to, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any locality, state, country or other jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to law or regulation or which would subject ARSSBL to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction(s). No action has been or will be taken by ARSSBL in any jurisdiction (other than India), where any action for such purpose(s) is required. Accordingly, this Report shall not be possessed, circulated and/or distributed in any such country or jurisdiction unless such action is in compliance with all applicable laws and regulations of such country or jurisdiction. ARSSBL requires such recipient to inform himself about and to observe any restrictions at his own expense, without any liability to ARSSBL. Any dispute arising out of this Report shall be subject to the exclusive jurisdiction of the Courts in India.

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Contd.


Disclaimer:

Contd. Statements on ownership and material conflicts of interest, compensation - ARSSBL and Associates

Sr. No.

Statement

Answers to the Best of the knowledge and belief of the ARSSBL/ its Associates/ Research Analyst who is preparing this report

1 ARSSBL/its Associates/ Research Analyst/ his Relative have any financial interest in the subject company? Nature of Interest (if applicable), is given against the company’s name?. NO

2

ARSSBL/its Associates/ Research Analyst/ his Relative have actual/beneficial ownership of one per cent or more securities of the subject company, at the end of the month immediately preceding the date of publication of the research report or date of the public appearance?. NO

3 ARSSBL/its Associates/ Research Analyst/ his Relative have any other material conflict of interest at the time of publication of the research report or at the time of public appearance?. NO

4 ARSSBL/its Associates/ Research Analyst/ his Relative have received any compensation from the subject company in the past twelve months. NO

5 ARSSBL/its Associates/ Research Analyst/ his Relative have managed or co-managed public offering of securities for the subject company in the past twelve months.

NO

6 ARSSBL/its Associates/ Research Analyst/ his Relative have received any compensation for investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months. NO

7

ARSSBL/its Associates/ Research Analyst/ his Relative have received any compensation for products or services other than investment banking or merchant banking or brokerage services from the subject company in the past twelve months. NO

8 ARSSBL/its Associates/ Research Analyst/ his Relative have received any compensation or other benefits from the subject company or third party in connection with the research report. NO

9 ARSSBL/its Associates/ Research Analyst/ his Relative have served as an officer, director or employee of the subject company. NO

10 ARSSBL/its Associates/ Research Analyst/ his Relative has been engaged in market making activity for the subject company. NO

UPL Limited (UPL)

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