relationships between circulation … between circulation modes and surface climatic variables: a...
TRANSCRIPT
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RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN
CIRCULATION MODES AND SURFACE
CLIMATIC VARIABLES:
A COMPARISON OF REANALYSES
Martin HYNČICA and Radan HUTH
Department of Physical Geography and Geoecology
Charles University in Prague
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MAIN OBJECTS
• The main goal is the comparison of relationships of circulation
modes identified from several reanalyses to temperature over
Northern Hemisphere at 650 stations
• Here, only two the most notable circulation modes are showed:
NAO (North Atlantic Oscillation) and PNA (Pacific North America)
• Five reanalyses: 20th Century Reanalyses (20CR); ERA20C;
ERA40; JRA-55; NCEP/NCAR
• Period: 1957-2002
• Seasons: winter, spring and autumn
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METHODOLOGY
• Circulation modes are identified by rotated principal component
analyses (RPCA) of 500 hPa geopotential height
• RPCA = > results are loadings (spatial representation of modes)
and scores (index of circulation modes)
• 650 stations (GHCN), monthly temperature anomaly from long-
term climate is used
• Pearson correlation coefficient is calculated between monthly
score (=index of circulation mode) and temperature anomaly
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Percentage of points (out of 734), where difference between
correlation of the 500 hPa and circulation mode is significant between
reanalyses. Higher values indicates higher differences in space
Fischer transformation is used for determination of statistical
significant differences (p<0.05)
NAO
PNA
WINTER
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20CR ERA20 ERA40 JRA55 NCEP
WINTER – NAO AND PNA
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CORRELATION
BETWEEN NAO
AND MONTLY
TEMPERATURE
ANOMALY
IN WINTER
20CR ERA20 ERA40
NCEP JRA55
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CORRELATION
BETWEEN PNA
AND MONTLY
TEMPERATURE
ANOMALY
IN WINTER
20CR ERA20 ERA40
JRA55 NCEP
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There are no stations, where differences in correlations between temperature and circulation modes are statistically different
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SPRING NAO
PNA
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SPRING NAO
PNA
High differences are mostly present between 20CR and remaining
reanalyses
Differences are caused by displacement and different shapes of some
centres
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SPRING – NAO
20CR ERA20 ERA40
JRA55 NCEP
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CORRELATION
BETWEEN NAO
AND MONTLY
TEMPERATURE
ANOMALY IN
SPRING
ERA40 ERA20 20CR
JRA55 NCEP
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NAO - 20CR NAO - NCEP
STATIONS, WHERE CORRELATION OF NAO TO TEMPERATURE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERS BETWEEN REANALYSES
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• Second column shows percentage of stations, where are statistical significant differences in correlations between temperature anomaly and NAO index calculated from different reanalyses
• High statistical significant differences in 500 hPa => high percentage of stations with st. significant differences in correlation between circulation mode and temperature
SPRING – NAO – 20CR
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20CR ERA20 ERA40
JRA55 NCEP
SPRING – PNA
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CORRELATION
BETWEEN PNA
AND MONTLY
TEMPERATURE
ANOMALY
IN SPRING
ERA40 ERA20 20CR
JRA55 NCEP
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PNA – 20CR PNA – JRA55
STATIONS , WHERE CORRELATION OF PNA TO TEMPERATURE SIGNIFICANTLY DIFFERS BETWEEN REANALYSES
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AUTUMN
NAO
PNA
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AUTUMN– NAO
20CR ERA20 ERA40
JRA55 NCEP
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CORRELATION
BETWEEN NAO
AND MONTLY
TEMPERATURE
ANOMALY
IN AUTUMN
ERA20 ERA40
JRA55 NCEP
20CR
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AUTUMN–PNA
20CR ERA20 ERA40
JRA55 NCEP
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CORRELATION
BETWEEN PNA
AND MONTLY
TEMPERATURE
ANOMALY
IN AUTUMN
20CR ERA20 ERA40
NCEP JRA55
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There are no stations, where differences in correlations between temperature and circulation modes are statistically different , as it is in winter
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CONCLUSIONS
• We compared relationships of NAO and PNA to monthly temperature
anomaly at 650 stations over the Northern Hemisphere in 5 reanalyses
between 1957 and 2002
• Negligible differences are present between reanalyses in winter, higher
differences are indentified in autumn. In both seasons, signigicant
differences in relationships of both circulation modes to temperature are
not found
• On the other hand, in spring, the spatial representation of NAO (in
20CR and ERA20) and PNA (in 20CR) is different compared to
remaining reanalyses. These differences are caused by different
shapes of centres and the consequence is higher amount of stations,
where correlation of 20CR with temperature differs significantly in
comparison with the other reanalyses (particularly over North America)