reinventing energy futures: four visions
DESCRIPTION
Reinventing Energy Futures: Four Visions presents the shifting landscape of our relationship to energy. For most inhabitants of the developed world, energy (or lack thereof) has not been a problem during their lifetimes. Energy is a technology so successful it has become invisible; the most significant, and most silent, enabler of a modern way of life. But all that is changing. Over the next 10-15 years, our relationship to energy will enter a new phase, framed by the stark reality of carbon emission-driven climate change, and a rising energy demand around the globe. Whether we like it, or are ready for it, an emerging "energopolitics" will reshape everything from what we consume, how we live, why we work, and ultimately, the condition of our planet. The Reinventing Energy Futures: Four Visions Map (PDF) is an invitation to explore four corners of possibility for the future of energy. It is a tool to make connections across a broad array of action domains where control over our resources will play out. In the difficult to forecast field of energy futures, where data and projection models often clash and expertise runs deep and narrow, this map is a way to frame new actions. Take a tour of the energy landscape-in-the-making. Engage with the forecasts in each of the six action domains—infrastructure, governance, quality of life, resources, environment, and economy. Grapple with the big questions at the heart of these domains. Imagine your day in one of the future scenarios. Then take your next step—it may be the first step toward building new strategies for shaping a future in which we all thrive.TRANSCRIPT
G R O W T H
a r i s ing t ide
INFRASTRUCTURE
QUAL ITY OF L IFE
ENVIRONMENT
C O L L A P S E
shut down
GOVERNANCE
QUAL ITY OF L IFE
ENVIRONMENT
four v i s ions of energy futuresC O N S T R A I N T
shar ing the load
ECONOMY
QUAL ITY OF L IFE
T R A N S F O R M A T I O N
a new dawn
GOVERNANCE
ECONOMICS
QUAL ITY OF L IFE
six act ion domainscritical components of a successful energy future
R E S O U R C E SI N F R A S T R U C T U R E
G O V E R N A N C EE C O N O M YQ U A L I T Y O F L I F EE N V I R O N M E N T
shut downThe technological breakthrough never came, conservation failed,
and reactive government policy was too little too late. Alternative
energies could not scale fast enough through market forces. The
world struggled to salvage the once robust and reliable energy
infrastructure. Energy prices have become exorbitant and getting
fuel to vital machines is a constant battle. out of this almost total
energy collapse, however, a new energy future is emerging. The u.S.,
having let its energy infrastructure crumble, is now a leapfrog nation,
and distributed, renewable energy systems are being developed.
Local microgrids hold great promise to take hold in the emerging
regenerative economy.
a new dawnThere was never any energy shortage on Earth, only a shortage
in the amount of energy humans were able to harness and put to work. Tapping into this abundance of energy is leading the world
toward a total transformation of human society and marks a cosmic civilizational shift. Led by technological advances in solar power,
including widespread success of the artificial leaf, the improvement in solar efficiency and costs, and the deployment of space-based
solar arrays, humans have begun to use that giant nuclear reactor, the Sun, more effectively and efficiently than ever before. If the pace of
technological advancement continues, some think we will reach the 174 petawatt mark by 2033, just eight years from now.
shar ing the loadIn 2025, oil spills, nuclear meltdowns, obscene profits for fuel producers, and accelerating climate disruptions have finally catalyzed the political will for more direct and heavy-handed government control over every aspect of the energy industry. The u.S. government did not wait for renewables to catch up and replace fossil fuels and nuclear power. Instead, it implemented a series of mandatory efficiency and conservation efforts to strictly regulate demand, and sustainably generate supplies. utilities were highly regulated, as were private homes. While energy is not the ubiquitous resource it once was, if managed properly, there is enough for everyone to meet their needs, without destroying the environment or leading to energy wars.
a r i s ing t ideAbundant and reliable energy are necessary to maintain economic
and social stability. By 2025, both public and private sector strategies
have created massive resource investment and incentive structures to
encourage more rapid growth in the energy sector. Energy producers
using fossil fuels, nuclear, wind, solar, and other renewables have all
seen significant return on their investments. unprecedented energy
innovation in both production and distribution infrastructures, as well
as services and applications associated with the smart grid, have
produced record profits and job growth. Carbon emissions and climate
change have not slowed, but climate disruptions have led to innovative
adaptations, including some small-scale geoengineering projects
yielding locally positive results.
c o n s t R a i n t
G R o W t H c o l l a p s e
t R a n s f o R M at i o n
›› Regional, not national, resilience
›› Struggles over energy mandates
›› Personhood rights for Earth
›› New resources = new power brokers
›› Locally owned energy
›› Rise of disaster economics
›› Renewables reach the tipping point
›› Extended producer responsibility: cradle-to- cradle
›› Motivating high-tech workers with a new mission
›› Peak energy use at the global level
›› Religious organizations take on power
›› Personal data systems become more vulnerable
›› Persuasive technology drives behavior change
›› Purchasing access, not ownership
›› New energy retail
›› Garbage in, energy out
›› Wind, water, and solar for the win
›› Recycling heat
›› Costly nukes
›› Solar Moore’s Law
›› Smart buildings
›› Energy islanding
›› Plugged-in mobility
›› Apps for energy
›› Energy data in the cloud
›› Energy conscious food
›› Growing scrutiny of water for energy production
›› Temperatures on the rise
›› Energy locavores
›› Geo-engineering the climate
FORECASTS
FORECASTS
FORECASTS
FORECASTS
FORECASTS
FORECASTS e c o n o M y
How will we innovate strong jobs, services, and
products based on the energy economy?
Q U a l i t y o f l i f e
How will we build a new relationship to energy to
support better lifestyles?
R e s o U R c e s
How will we redefine fuels and waste?
i n f R a s t R U c t U R e
How will we interact with new fixed,
mobile, and virtual infrastructures?
e n v i R o n M e n t
How will we reinvent our responses to accelerating
environmental volatility?
G o v e R n a n c e
How will we re-allocate control over energy in a world
of new power politics?
Steps in identifying and calculating GHG emmisions
Identify sources
Select calculation approach
Collect data and choose emission factors
Apply calculation tools
Roll-up data to corporate level
Growth of full-cost MetricsRobust accounting systems such as the Greenhouse Gas Protocol are enabling companies to develop comprehensive and reliable inventories of their GHG emissions.
Agile Energy ProductsFenix International’s ReadySet is a safe,
rechargeable battery system for charging small devices
when the grid is down or nonexistent.
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PlugShareThis mobile app provides information on charging stations for electric vehicles, and indicates homes and businesses that volunteer to share outlets for recharging.
Distribution Wind RoseNew professions and tools, such as graphs to plot the distribution of wind resources, are helping reframe land use at the local level.
Mitsubishi Energy BeamMitsubishi Electric Corp. and
IHI Corporation have partnered in a 2 trillion yen ($21 billion)
Japanese project to beam solar energy to earth within the
next three decades.
vanishing WorldsThis documentary tells the
story of three families in Alaska, India, and China,
whose lives are already being affected by changing
climates.
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BloomEnergy’s fuel Cell ServersBloomEnergy’s fuel cell “servers,” deployed in 2010 for customers including Google, eBay, and Walmart, are an early signal of reemerging commercial interest in fuel cell technologies.
Rethinking WasteEnerkem will operate a plant
slated to open in 2012 for industrial scale production of
biofuels from municipal waste.
Energy Soft LandingsBloomington, Indiana has joined the Transition Towns movement, creating an “energy descent action plan” for a postpeak world.
New Legal CategoriesNations like Bolivia are part of a burgeoning movement
to declare “personhood” for planet Earth, granting it the rights of any human citizen.
vatican Highlights GHGThe Pontifical Academy of Sciences is one of a growing number of religious authorities bringing issues of climate change and environmental futures to worshippers around the world.
MeterReadMobile apps make behavior change easier. You can set up multiple meters to track
your home, solar panels, or car, or to make personal projections of future usage
patterns.
HOW TO USE THIS MAPexplore the present, envision the future
ENGAGE the Action Domains
EXPLORE the Alternative Future Scenarios
SCAN the Signals
Acknowledgements
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