regional market focus phillip securities research pte...

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MICA (P) 081/12/2011 Ref No: RM2012_0023 1 of 16 Singapore - STI: +0.6% to 2917.9 - MSCI Asia Pac ex-Japan: +0.13% - Euro Stoxx 50: +1.49% - S&P500: +1.46 to 1344.9 US non-farm payrolls outperformed all expectations for Jan (243k jobs added), and not only that, Nov and Dec got revised higher by 60k jobs. The whole of 2011 got revised higher by 180k jobs more, which has caused the year average rate of additions to jump from 137k to 152k jobs added per month, a respectable amount. Current annual rate of additions, including Jan's outperformance, is at 163k jobs added per month. This is a good report, but the problem is maintaining it in order to generate sufficient income to offset the fiscal tightening we expect this year. Greek bond exchange deal is stalled, and its economy seems trapped in a death spiral of austerity-contraction-austerity. Major source of near term downside risk. The STI has finally followed through above its 200 day moving average. The S&P500 has also for the time being challenged it short-term bearish divergence on the MACD. So chances lean to the upside for the near term. Near term underlying market positives for equities are: (1) the rate of contractions in the Eurozone and Asia have eased somewhat, while the US has outperformed, (2) unlimited 3yr refinancing operations by the ECB has successfully resulted in backdoor QE of Eurozone sovereign debt, and (3) Fed anchors low rate expectations till late 2014 and considers QE3. Near term downside risks are: (1) expectations of economic data are running high, but we still face massive fiscal tightening in the EZ and progressively stronger tightening in the US this year, (2) Greece might still default. STI earnings this season is looking better: Keppel Corp, Starhub, SIA beat / SIAEC met / CMT, SPH missed. S&P500 earnings season has some concern: although 2/3 companies have beat expectations, rate of profit growth could be slowing down. For our larger trend market outlook, QE3 changes things. If the economy is strong, stocks will go up. If the economy is weak, we will have QE3, and stocks will go up. Either way, stocks will go up. Other positive development in the EZ is that the ECB's language approves the New Fiscal Compact as a step toward Fiscal Union, which is a necessary pre-condition to QE, hence there is every likelihood the ECB is trying to find the excuse to QE Italian and Spanish debt and ringfence them in the event of a Greek default. For our sector strategy please see: Sector Strategy 1st Feb 2012 Close +/- % +/- FSSTI 2917.95 16.91 0.58 P/E (x) 8.50 P/Bv (x) 1.42 3.75 Dividend Yield STRAITS TIMES INDEX 2500 2700 2900 3100 3300 2/3 5/3 8/3 11/3 2/3

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Page 1: Regional Market Focus Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltdresearch.cyberquote.com.hk/page/htm/kc/share... · expectations of economic data are running high, ... the long-term risk

MICA (P) 081/12/2011 Ref No: RM2012_0023 1 of 16

Phillip Securities Research Pte Ltd

Regional Market Focus

6 February 2012

Singapore - STI: +0.6% to 2917.9 - MSCI Asia Pac ex-Japan: +0.13% - Euro Stoxx 50: +1.49% - S&P500: +1.46 to 1344.9 US non-farm payrolls outperformed all expectations for Jan (243k jobs added),

and not only that, Nov and Dec got revised higher by 60k jobs. The whole of 2011 got revised higher by 180k jobs more, which has caused the year average rate of additions to jump from 137k to 152k jobs added per month, a respectable amount. Current annual rate of additions, including Jan's outperformance, is at 163k jobs added per month. This is a good report, but the problem is maintaining it in order to generate sufficient income to offset the fiscal tightening we expect this year.

Greek bond exchange deal is stalled, and its economy seems trapped in a death spiral of austerity-contraction-austerity. Major source of near term downside risk.

The STI has finally followed through above its 200 day moving average. The S&P500 has also for the time being challenged it short-term bearish divergence on the MACD. So chances lean to the upside for the near term. Near term underlying market positives for equities are: (1) the rate of contractions in the Eurozone and Asia have eased somewhat, while the US has outperformed, (2) unlimited 3yr refinancing operations by the ECB has successfully resulted in backdoor QE of Eurozone sovereign debt, and (3) Fed anchors low rate expectations till late 2014 and considers QE3. Near term downside risks are: (1) expectations of economic data are running high, but we still face massive fiscal tightening in the EZ and progressively stronger tightening in the US this year, (2) Greece might still default.

STI earnings this season is looking better: Keppel Corp, Starhub, SIA beat / SIAEC met / CMT, SPH missed. S&P500 earnings season has some concern: although 2/3 companies have beat expectations, rate of profit growth could be slowing down.

For our larger trend market outlook, QE3 changes things. If the economy is strong, stocks will go up. If the economy is weak, we will have QE3, and stocks will go up. Either way, stocks will go up. Other positive development in the EZ is that the ECB's language approves the New Fiscal Compact as a step toward Fiscal Union, which is a necessary pre-condition to QE, hence there is every likelihood the ECB is trying to find the excuse to QE Italian and Spanish debt and ringfence them in the event of a Greek default.

For our sector strategy please see: Sector Strategy 1st Feb 2012

Close +/- % +/-FSSTI 2917.95 16.91 0.58P/E (x) 8.50P/Bv (x) 1.42

3.75Dividend Yield

STRAITS TIMES INDEX

2500

2700

2900

3100

3300

2/3 5/3 8/3 11/3 2/3

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Regional Market Focus 6 February 2012

2 of 16

Hong Kong Local stocks soared slightly. The HSI and HSCEI gained 17.53 points and 22.1

points to 20756 and 11605.57 respectively. Market volume was 63.439 billion. Technically, the benchmark index consolidated over the 200 SMA. We believe

the HSI will break through the 21000 level this week, due to the ADR of U.S indicating the HSI may rise over 21000. Should this be achieved, the next target will be 21500. However, we suggest that investors pay attention to the latest development of the Greek sovereign debt negotiation, and the sovereign debt repayment of Italy, as the Europe sovereign debt crisis is not settled yet. It is a highly possible to slump should Greece default.

We peg resistance for the HSI at 21000 and support at 20650

Close +/- % +/-HSI INDEX 20756.98 17.53 0.08P/E (x) 9.40P/Bv (x) 1.49

3.30Dividend Yield

HANG SENG INDEX

16000

18000

20000

22000

24000

26000

2/3 5/3 8/3 11/3 2/3

Source: Bloomberg

Thailand Thai stocks seesawed in positive and negative territory last Fri but spent most of

the session in positive territory with much of the buying coming from big caps on the back of foreign buying which drove the SET index further higher near 1100.

The SETI is set to break out above 1100 points today amid positive sentiment from overseas. US employment figure turned out better than expected whereas unemployment rate fell to an almost 3-year low at 8.3%. Meanwhile, foreign net buying in the Thai stock market continued and is expected to support further gains in big cap shares. On the dimmer side, Greek debt talks still failed to deliver concrete results but with the deadline closing by, a conclusion must be reached in a short time to avoid default during the payment in mid-Mar. We foresee Greek resolution would be a short-term positive issue to the market but the long-term risk would remain. With short-term technical outlook rather bearish, we expect the uptrend this round to be capped around 1110.

The strategy is to trade stocks based on ‘sell into strength, buy on dips’. Today we peg resistance for the SET index at 1102-1110 and support at 1094-

1087.

Close +/- % +/-SET INDEX 1098.95 7.28 0.67P/E (x) 14.30P/Bv (x) 2.04

3.85Dividend Yield

STOCK EXCH OF THAI INDEX

800

900

1000

1100

1200

2/3 5/3 8/3 11/3 2/3

Source: Bloomberg

Indonesia The JCI finished Friday's trading in negative territory. Down by 0.953 points or

0.02%, the composite index closed at 4,015.949 from previously 4,016.902. Six sectors finished in red zone and the rest stayed in green. Construction sector gave up 0.34%, followed by finance sector which shed 0.30% and trade & service sector that declined 0.25%. The breadth of the market was negative with 102 shares dropped as compared to 102 that rose and 101 shares were unchanged. The total turnover on regular market was only IDR 3.868 trillion (USD 431.696 million)

We expect the JCI to advance today, as market participants would follow the positive trail from US jobs data on Friday. We are looking at 3,990 – 4,050 as its support and resistance level. Close +/- % +/-

JCI Index 4015.95 -0.95 -0.02P/E (x) 17.79P/Bv (x) 2.99

1.97Dividend Yield

JAKARTA COMPOSITE INDEX

30003200340036003800400042004400

2/3 5/3 8/3 11/3 2/3

Source: Bloomberg

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Regional Market Focus 6 February 2012

3 of 16

Sri Lanka The market activities were very volatile and it halted for the day on a negative

note. The All Share Price Index (ASPI) lost 19.39 points to close the day at 5,586.10.The more liquid Milanka Price Index (MPI) lost 28.08 points and closed at 4,813.03.

193 counters traded during the day to record a turnover of LKR 419.9Mn. The day recorded a total number of 6,517 trades to result in 19.6Mn shares changing hands. The price losers outnumbered the price gainers by 162:32. The foreign transactions recorded a net inflow of LKR 71.5Mn.

Close +/- % +/-CSEALL Index 5586.39 -19.10 -0.34P/E (x) 12.10P/Bv (x) 2.04

2.06Dividend Yield

SRI LANKA COLOMBO ALL SH

50005500

60006500

70007500

8000

2/3 5/3 8/3 11/3 2/3

Source: Bloomberg

Australia The ASX 200 fell fractionally on Friday as China’s non manufacturing data

restricted optimism and the market waited for the US employment figures. The market has started very strongly this morning and is trading over 1% higher.

The gains are fairly widespread with the major resource stocks and big four banks leading the way. Gold stocks are trading down though.

Tomorrow the Reserve Bank of Australia announces its interest rate decision and most of the market is expecting a 25bp reduction to 4%. Also this week we will see some of our major stocks release results including Transurban (TCL), BHP Billiton (BHP), Rio Tinto (RIO), Stockland (SGP), Telstra (TLS) and Newcrest (NCM).

Close +/- % +/-S&P/ASX 200 INDEX 4251.17 -16.68 -0.39P/E (x) 13.78P/Bv (x) 1.71

6.33Dividend Yield

STANDARD & POORS/ ASX 200 INDEX

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

5000

5500

2/3 5/3 8/3 11/3 2/3

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Regional Market Focus 6 February 2012

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Hong Kong BYD Co Ltd - Possible better-than-expected FY11 Performance Recommendation: Hold Previous close: HKD$24.66 Fair value: HKD$25.20 Due to the cooled down auto business, BYD’s 9M2011 revenue and net profit (Chinese Accounting Standard) declined 4.3% and 85.5%

yoy to Rmb34.33 bn and 353 mn. EPS decreased by 85.7% to 0.15yuan. It is worthy to note that BYD’s 2011Q3 result seems to show signs of rebound, thanks to the gradually warmed up sales of several new

models. BYD’s 2011Q3 revenue and net profit rose 11% and 582% yoy to Rmb11.79 bn and 77.37 mn. EPS increased by 558% to 0.033yuan.

During 2011, the Company sold a total of about 0.45 mn vehicles, down 14% yoy. Its newly launched S6 and G6 received good reputation. If the momentum maintained in the future for the new models, the Company’s automotive business could see new robust growth. The overall sales volume is forecasted to 500,000 units in 2012, up 10% yoy.

The BYD cut 33.4% stake in an associate company Foshan Jinhui for Rmb495.6mn in 2011Q4, gaining Rmb430mn. The divestment would improve BYD`s financial conditions and FY2011 result.

We revise our EPS forecast in FY2011 and FY2012 to RMB0.47 and RMB0.58 respectively, which are HK$0.58 and HK$0.72. Considering the rapid growth expectation for the new energy vehicle, we give 35 x P/E to 2012E EPS, which implies 12-month overall TP of HK$25.2, 2.19% higher than the last closing, a hold rating.

Thailand Major Cineplex Group – Company Preview Recommendation: TRADING BUY Previous close: Bt15.30 Fair value: Bt16 We expect MAJOR to post a 4QCY11 net profit of Bt68m in line with our previous estimate. Due to the absence of the flooding impact, 1QCY12 is likely to be better than 4QCY11 as movies released during 1QCY12 have made

more money. In y-y terms, whether the outlook in 1QCY12 will be better than 1QCY10 depends on how much money movies to be released in Feb-Mar 2012 will make and how long retail space rental business would continue to feel the impact from the flooding.

We keep our CY11 net profit outlook for MAJOR at Bt769mn, flat y-y. We also expect MAJOR to achieve a profit of Bt878mn in CY12. Even though a lineup of movies to be released this year may not be as strong as last year, we believe branch expansion would continue to be a positive catalyst for revenue growth.

We recommend a “TRADING BUY” on MAJOR with a target price of Bt16/share based on a P/E multiple of 16x.

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Regional Market Focus 6 February 2012

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Market News

US THE long-awaited resurrection of the US labour market drove the stock market to a near four-year high last week and prompted

President Barack Obama to say the economic recovery is 'speeding up'. However, Greece is still veering out of control and if it crashes so may the euro. In that case, the recovery would soon lose its momentum. Last week, Greece and its creditors postponed the reckoning, but this week the bondholders, European regulators and Greek legislators will have to decide whether the crocked nation can continue in the euro zone. (Source: BT Online)

Singapore Budget 2012 is unlikely to spare companies the pain of restructuring where it is necessary for Singapore's economy to gear up for the

future. Fiscal measures benefiting all companies were rolled out three years ago to combat the global financial crisis. But this year, businesses may be left to feel enough of a pinch to prod them into rethinking their processes and raising productivity, said participants at a recent roundtable organised by The Business Times to discuss the upcoming Budget. And unlike 2009, when a full-blown global recession raged, this year's milder slowdown will allow the government more room to press on with longer-term initiatives. (Source: BT Online)

Greater China Region Chinese shoppers on their Lunar New Year holiday were less lavish than expected at Hong Kong jewelers, curbed spending on beauty

brands and slowed spending at South Korean stores. They may keep that pace in the coming year of the dragon. Holiday sales on the mainland grew 16 percent to 470 billion yuan ($75 billion), the slowest pace since the 2009 financial crisis and three percentage points (Source: Bloomberg)

Thailand Foreign investors remained net buyers of Thai equities worth Bt2,930.44m last Fri. (Source: Bisnews) The Bank of Thailand raised its economic growth outlook for 2012 to 4.9% from 4.8% but the central bank lowered its forecast for

economic growth for 2011 to 1% from an earlier estimate of 1.8% as a result of a sharp economic contraction in 4Q11 caused by the severe flooding crisis. Domestic inflation was also expected to average 3.2% this year and core inflation was projected at 2.2%. (Source: Krungthep Turakij)

Indonesia Indonesia’s economic activity in 2011 is favorable. Thus, the economic growth target of 6.5 percent is expected to be achieved.

According to the ministry of finance, the global crisis in mid 2011 did not have a significant impact on the Indonesian economy. In the fourth quarter of 2011, economic performance was still stable, even though all international institutions corrected their economic growth targets. The government also sees that the growth target will be achieved with the various improvements in infrastructure, bureaucracy and the campaign for corruption eradication. Meanwhile, to soften the impact of declining exports, the government is providing fiscal facilities that are supported by connectivity, infrastructure, electricity, ports and land acquisition assistance. The Investment Coordinating Board noted that actual investments reached IDR 251.3 trillion (USD 28.15 billion) in 2011, or 104.7 percent of the government’s IDR 240 trillion target. Of this, foreign investments reached IDR 175.3 trillion or 69.76 percent of total investments, while domestic investments reached IDR 76 trillion or 30.24 percent. (Source: Indonesia Finance Today)

Poor infrastructure will cause inflation to go up in Indonesia, since distribution expenses will increase. The government’s concern that it has not decided yet on the policy for fuel oil since it will push inflation. On the other hand, that inflation could also be high with poor infrastructure conditions, which will cause higher expenses. The appropriate time for the government to raise subsidized fuel oil price was last year. It will be difficult for the government to raise fuel oil price this year, since it will boost higher inflation. According to studies from Central Bureau of Statistics (Badan Pusat Statistik/BPS), a raised subsidized fuel oil price and basic electricity tariff of 10 percent will cause additional inflation below one percent. The government targets the inflation for this year at 5.3 percent. Data from State Revenue and Expenditure Budget shows the government allocated subsidy expenditure of IDR 208.9 trillion (USD 655.2 million), consisting of energy subsidy at IDR 168.6 trillion and non-energy of IDR 40.3 trillion. The total subsidy climbed 11.35 percent from IDR 187.6 trillion in 2011, which consisted of energy subsidy at IDR 136.6 trillion and non-energy of IDR 51 trillion. (Source: Indonesia Finance Today)

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Regional Market Focus 6 February 2012

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Sri Lanka Sri Lanka's Central Bank hiked rates by 50 basis points to 9.0 percent mounting an interest rate defence of its peg with the US dollar,

and slapped a credit ceiling foreign reserves fell more than a quarter due to high loan growth. The Central Bank said its reverse repo rate at which money is injected to market will be raised to 9.0 percent and the repo rate at which excess money is drained will be hiked to 7.50 basis points. The central bank also putting a credit ceiling of 18 percent for banks funding loan with domestic deposits and 23 percent if the extra 5 percent could be finance overseas. The rate increase came as inflation fell to 3.8 percent in the 12 months to January 2012. The Central Bank said credit to business rose 34.5 percent by December 2012, "substantially exceeding projections." (Source: LBO)

Foreign entities will be allowed to give margin loans for securities trading provided they are registered with the island's Securities and Exchange Commission, the Central Bank said. Allowing foreign entities to give credit for stock trading was one of the requests made by Colombo's stock brokers, when they met President Mahinda Rajapaksa in December. The Central Bank is of the view that this move would help develop the business of margin providing, and also increase market activity by improving the access to finance for investors. The SEC also relaxed credit rules after the broker meeting with the President, thought its chairperson quit shortly after the meeting. (Source: LBO)

Australia Extract Resources (EXT) is reportedly set to receive a A$2.2b bid from China Guangdong Nuclear Power Corporation who recently

purchased nearly 90% of EXT’s major shareholder. The company is expected to lodge a bidder’s statement by the start of March. (Source: The Australian)

The combination of big crops, a drop in land prices and recent increases in rainfall has led to a surge in interest from funds looking to purchase Australian agricultural assets. Colliers International says that at least four funds are looking to purchase A$1.6b worth of property. (Source: Sydney Morning Herald)

Prime Minister Julia Gillard has received a boost from a report that states that proposed reforms to the financial sector will increase Australian’s superannuation funds by A$130b over the next 15 years. (Source: The Age)

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Regional Market Focus 6 February 2012

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Dollar Index 79.04 +0.13% Gold 1,726.25 +0.27%

Crude oil 97.84 +1.54% US Treasury 10yr Yield 1.922 +0.10%

DJI 12,862.23 +1.23% S&P 500 INDEX 1,344.90 +1.46%

SHCOMP 2,330.41 +0.77%

Source: Bloomberg

10000

11000

12000

13000

Feb-11

Mar-11

Apr-11

May-11

Jun-11

Jul-11

Aug-11

Sep-11

Oct-11

Nov-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

70

75

80

85

Feb-11

Mar-11

Apr-11

May-11

Jun-11

Jul-11

Aug-11

Sep-11

Oct-11

Nov-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

Feb-11

Mar-11

Apr-11

May-11

Jun-11

Jul-11

Aug-11

Sep-11

Oct-11

Nov-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

70

80

90

100

110

120

Feb-11

Mar-11

Apr-11

May-11

Jun-11

Jul-11

Aug-11

Sep-11

Oct-11

Nov-11

Dec-11

Jan-121.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

Feb-11

Mar-11

Apr-11

May-11

Jun-11

Jul-11

Aug-11

Sep-11

Oct-11

Nov-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

2000

2300

2600

2900

3200Feb-11

Mar-11

Apr-11

May-11

Jun-11

Jul-11

Aug-11

Sep-11

Oct-11

Nov-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

Feb-11

Mar-11

Apr-11

May-11

Jun-11

Jul-11

Aug-11

Sep-11

Oct-11

Nov-11

Dec-11

Jan-12

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Regional Market Focus 6 February 2012

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Source: Bloomberg

Major World Indices

JCI -0.02% 4,015.95

HSI 0.08% 20,756.98

KLCI 0.11% 1,538.77

KOSPI -0.60% 1,972.34

NIKKEI -0.51% 8,831.93

SET 0.67% 1,098.95

SHCOMP 0.77% 2,330.41

SENSEX 0.99% 17,604.96

ASX -0.39% 4,251.17

FTSE 100 1.81% 5,901.07

DOW 1.23% 12,862.23 S&P 500 1.46% 1,344.90 NASDAQ 1.61% 2,905.66

COLOMBO -0.34% 5,586.39

STI 0.58% 2,917.95

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Regional Market Focus 6 February 2012

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Top Value & VolumeSingaporeTop 10 Value Last % Chg Chg Value ('k) Top 10 Volume Last % Chg Chg Volume ('k)GENTING SINGAPOR 1.63 +1.25 +0.020 301,251 MDR LTD 0.01 +50.00 +0.003 523,645SINGAP TELECOMM 3.16 +0.96 +0.030 108,744 DIGILAND INTERNATIONAL LTD 0.00 +100.00 +0.001 320,561NOBLE GROUP LTD 1.40 +1.82 +0.025 99,011 COMPACT METAL INDUSTRIES 0.01 +20.00 +0.001 211,201KEPPEL CORP LTD 10.57 +0.76 +0.080 69,951 GENTING SINGAPORE PLC 1.63 +1.25 +0.020 192,623OCBC BANK 8.68 +2.12 +0.180 56,733 CHINA ENERSAVE LTD 0.00 +0.00 +0.000 134,550GOLDEN AGRI-RESO 0.74 +1.37 +0.010 56,489 CENTILLION ENV & RECYCLING 0.00 +0.00 +0.000 106,962WILMAR INTERNATI 5.65 +1.44 +0.080 55,581 GMG GLOBAL LTD 0.15 +0.00 +0.000 81,227DBS GROUP HLDGS 13.40 +0.30 +0.040 51,147 GOLDEN AGRI-RESOURCES LTD 0.74 +1.37 +0.010 80,664SINGAPORE AIRLIN 10.61 -3.55 -0.390 45,540 YOMA STRATEGIC HLDGS LTD 0.46 +17.95 +0.070 80,220YANGZIJIANG SHIP 1.17 +3.10 +0.035 44,070 OCEANUS GROUP LTD 0.09 +3.45 +0.003 73,591

Hong KongTop 10 Value Last % Chg Chg Value ('k) Top 10 Volume Last % Chg Chg Volume ('k)IND & COMM BK-H 5.53 -0.36 -0.02 2,056,983 SIMSEN INTERNATI 0.01 -9.09 -0.00 730,610CHINA CONST BA-H 6.39 +0.79 +0.05 1,730,443 PAC PLYWOOD 0.02 +0.00 +0.00 494,600HUTCHISON WHAMPO 76.40 +3.31 +2.45 1,591,081 IND & COMM BK-H 5.53 -0.36 -0.02 373,075BANK OF CHINA-H 3.39 +0.00 +0.00 1,257,507 BANK OF CHINA-H 3.39 +0.00 +0.00 372,400CNOOC LTD 16.76 +0.72 +0.12 1,180,967 CHINA CONST BA-H 6.39 +0.79 +0.05 271,948CHINA MOBILE 79.00 -1.06 -0.85 1,075,667 GOME ELECTRICAL 1.99 +3.11 +0.06 235,607PETROCHINA CO-H 11.48 -1.20 -0.14 977,530 GCL-POLY ENERGY 2.75 +1.10 +0.03 168,636PING AN INSURA-H 65.15 +1.48 +0.95 839,630 LUMENA NEWMAT 1.65 +2.48 +0.04 165,898PICC PROPERTY & 11.12 +4.51 +0.48 821,319 CH FIN LEASING 0.02 -4.76 -0.00 158,270CHINA LIFE INS-H 23.20 -0.43 -0.10 790,479 CHINA SHIPPING-H 2.17 +8.50 +0.17 156,172

ThailandTop 10 Value Last % Chg Chg Value ('k) Top 10 Volume Last % Chg Chg Volume ('k)BANPU PUB CO LTD 612.00 +2.00 +12.00 1,662,496 TMB BANK PCL 1.71 -0.58 -0.01 433,142CHAROEN POK FOOD 36.75 +2.80 +1.00 1,490,947 KRISDA MAHANAKOR 0.62 +1.64 +0.01 181,919ADVANCED INFO 150.50 +0.00 +0.00 1,281,928 JASMINE INTL PCL 2.06 +1.98 +0.04 168,991SIAM CEMENT PCL 352.00 +1.73 +6.00 1,168,041 EASTERN STAR REA 0.59 +0.00 +0.00 125,657PTT PCL 343.00 +0.29 +1.00 1,050,018 IRPC PCL 4.72 +0.85 +0.04 113,856TOTAL ACCESS COM 69.75 +3.72 +2.50 1,032,518 SANSIRI PUB CO 1.86 +0.00 +0.00 112,817CP ALL PCL 60.00 +1.69 +1.00 885,135 JASMINE TELECOM 1.52 +2.70 +0.04 112,082BANGKOK BANK PUB 155.50 -0.32 -0.50 814,127 THREE SIXTY FIVE 0.64 +1.59 +0.01 99,563TMB BANK PCL 1.71 -0.58 -0.01 742,225 BETTER WORLD GRE 1.65 +1.85 +0.03 94,096SIAM COMM BK PCL 123.00 -1.20 -1.50 720,012 G STEEL PCL 0.34 +3.03 +0.01 78,693

IndonesiaTop 10 Value Last % Chg Chg Value ('mn) Top 10 Volume Last % Chg Chg Volume ('k)BANK MANDIRI 6,550 -1.50 -100 326,213 BAKRIE & BROTHER 50 0.00 0 823,696BANK RAKYAT INDO 7,150 0.70 50 212,496 DARMA HENWA 89 5.95 5 304,622ADARO ENERGY TBK 1,920 -2.04 -40 156,110 TEMPO INTI MEDIA 155 9.15 13 246,357ASTRA INTERNATIO 78,750 0.90 700 148,932 BAKRIELAND DEV 138 0.00 0 160,507BANK NEGARA INDO 3,575 -0.69 -25 134,375 LAGUNA CIPTA GRI 115 2.68 3 148,675BORNEO LUMBUNG 880 2.33 20 117,096 BORNEO LUMBUNG 880 2.33 20 133,794GUDANG GARAM TBK 59,150 1.72 1,000 115,351 ENERGI MEGA PERS 197 -0.51 -1 127,634SEMEN GRESIK TBK 11,350 0.00 0 113,943 ALAM SUTERA REAL 540 1.89 10 127,146INDO TAMBANGRAYA 39,200 0.90 350 110,133 TRADA MARITIME 980 -2.00 -20 102,413TELEKOMUNIKASI 6,900 0.00 0 105,980 ADARO ENERGY TBK 1,920 -2.04 -40 79,858

Sri LankaTop 10 Value Last % Chg Chg Value ('k) Top 10 Volume Last % Chg Chg Volume ('k)ACME PRINTING 23.70 -4.82 -1.20 221,750 ACME PRINTING 23.70 -4.82 -1.20 7,260JOHN KEELLS HLDG 167.20 -0.18 -0.30 99,180 ASIA ASSET FINAN 5.90 -1.67 -0.10 6,200SWARNAMAHAL FINA 157.50 1.68 2.60 70,110 ORIENT GARMENTS 24.80 -1.98 -0.50 2,090ORIENT GARMENTS 24.80 -1.98 -0.50 57,950 SMB LEASING PLC 1.40 0.00 0.00 1,910ASIA ASSET FINAN 5.90 -1.67 -0.10 38,640 PANASIAN POWER L 3.60 0.00 0.00 1,470COMMERCIAL BK 100.50 -1.18 -1.20 31,560 CITY HOUS & REAL 18.20 -4.21 -0.80 1,040ENVIRONMENTAL RE 27.10 4.23 1.10 26,860 ENVIRONMENTAL RE 27.10 4.23 1.10 1,030CITY HOUS & REAL 18.20 -4.21 -0.80 22,960 TESS AGRO LTD 3.60 0.00 0.00 1,020HVA FOODS LTD 27.60 -2.13 -0.60 22,900 RENUKA AGRI FOOD 6.70 0.00 0.00 926HDFC BANK OF SL 1250.00 0.00 0.00 21,250 HVA FOODS LTD 27.60 -2.13 -0.60 794Source: Bloomberg

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AustraliaTop 10 Value Last % Chg Chg Value ('k) Top 10 Volume Last % Chg Chg Volume ('k)BHP BILLITON LTD 38.17 -0.05 -0.02 344,122 FLINDERS MINES LTD 0.29 -1.72 -0.01 92,992RIO TINTO LTD 71.82 -0.31 -0.22 327,600 GOCONNECT LTD 0.04 -6.25 0.00 84,368AUST AND NZ BANK 21.40 -1.17 -0.25 184,225 REPUBLIC GOLD LTD 0.00 -33.33 0.00 76,554COMMONW BK AUSTR 51.15 -0.18 -0.09 138,121 LYNAS CORP LTD 1.49 -10.06 -0.16 62,238WESTPAC BANKING 21.11 -0.62 -0.13 117,014 METAL STORM LTD 0.00 0.00 0.00 42,050WESFARMERS LTD 29.69 -1.44 -0.43 115,980 BLUESCOPE STEEL LTD 0.40 -2.44 -0.01 40,828WOOLWORTHS LTD 24.37 -0.81 -0.20 108,157 TELSTRA CORP LTD 3.38 -0.60 -0.02 30,402NATL AUST BANK 24.19 -0.59 -0.14 105,148 TAWANA RESOURCES NL 0.03 25.00 0.01 25,220QBE INSURANCE 12.10 3.59 0.41 103,487 NORFOLK GROUP LTD 1.14 0.44 0.01 22,330TELSTRA CORP 3.38 -0.60 -0.02 102,072 TORIAN RESOURCES NL 0.00 0.00 0.00 21,842Source: Bloomberg

Commodities % Chg Chg Last Price of S$1 Price of US$1GOLD SPOT (US$/OZ) +0.27 +4.70 1,726.25 0.7468 1.0784SILVER SPOT (US$/OZ) -0.04 -0.01 33.67 0.8000 0.9936WTI Cushing Crude Oil Spot Price (US$/bbl) +1.54 +1.48 97.84 0.6129 1.3139

0.5092 1.58140.8052 1.0000

Commodities % Chg Chg Last 5.0780 6.3060Malaysian Rubber Board Standard (MYR/kg) -0.45 -5.00 1,114.00 6.2437 7.7541PALM OIL (MYR/Metric Tonne) -0.42 -13.00 3,065.50 61.6500 76.5600

898.2283 1115.4200Index % Chg Chg Last 2.4227 3.0053 DOLLAR INDEX SPOT +0.13 +0.10 79.04 24.8510 30.8800Source: Bloomberg

CurrenciesAUSTRALIAN DOLLAR

Commodities & Currencies

CANADIAN DOLLAREUROBRITISH POUNDUS DOLLARCHINA RENMINBIHONG KONG DOLLARJAPANESE YENKOREAN WONMALAYSIAN RINGGITTHAI BAHT

Maturity Today Yesterday Last Week Last Month3 Months 0.06 0.06 0.03 0.006 Months 0.08 0.08 0.07 0.042 Years 0.23 0.22 0.21 0.263 Years 0.32 0.29 0.30 0.385 Years 0.76 0.70 0.75 0.8810 Years 1.92 1.82 1.89 1.9830 Years 3.12 3.00 3.06 3.03

Yield Spread (10 yrs - 3 mths)Yield Spread (10 yrs - 2 yrs)

US Treasury Yields

1.861.69

Source: Data provided by ValuBond – http://w w w .valubond.com

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Date Statistic For Survey Prior Date Statistic For Survey Prior2/7/12 IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism FEB 48.1 47.5 2/7/12 Foreign Reserves JAN - - $237.74B2/7/12 JOLTs Job Openings DEC - - 3161 2/8/12 Automobile COE Open Bid Cat A 8-Feb - - 481122/8/12 Consumer Credit DEC $7.000B $20.374B 2/8/12 Automobile COE Open Bid Cat B 8-Feb - - 678892/8/12 MBA Mortgage Applications 3-Feb - - -2.9% 2/8/12 Automobile COE Open Bid Cat E 8-Feb - - 671012/9/12 Initial Jobless Claims 4-Feb - - - - 10-15 FEB GDP (QoQ) 4Q F - - -4.9%2/9/12 Continuing Claims 28-Jan - - - - 10-17 FEB GDP (YoY) 4Q F - - 3.6%2/9/12 Bloomberg Consumer Comfort 5-Feb - - -44.8 2/15/12 Retail Sales Ex Auto (YoY) DEC - - 6.7%2/9/12 Wholesale Inventories DEC 0.5% 0.1% 2/15/12 Retail Sales (YoY) DEC - - 6.4%2/10/12 Trade Balance DEC -$48.5B -$47.8B 2/15/12 Retail Sales (MoM) sa DEC - - -0.6%2/10/12 U. of Michigan Conf idence FEB P 74.0 75.0 2/17/12 Electronic Exports (YoY) JAN - - -4.6%2/11/12 Monthly Budget Statement JAN -$65.0B -$49.8B 2/17/12 Non-oil Domestic Exports (YoY) JAN - - 9.0%2/14/12 NFIB Small Business Optimism JAN - - 93.8 2/17/12 Non-oil Domestic Exp SA (MoM) JAN - - 16.4%2/14/12 Import Price Index (MoM) JAN - - -0.1% 2/22/12 Automobile COE Open Bid Cat A 22-Feb - - - -2/14/12 Import Price Index (YoY) JAN - - 8.5% 2/22/12 Automobile COE Open Bid Cat B 22-Feb - - - -2/14/12 Advance Retail Sales JAN - - 0.1% 2/22/12 Automobile COE Open Bid Cat E 22-Feb - - - -

Date Statistic For Survey Prior Date Statistic For Survey Prior09-10 FEB Consumer Conf idence Economic JAN - - 63.1 2/7/12 Foreign Currency Reserves JAN - - $285.4B2/10/12 Forw ard Contracts 3-Feb - - - - 2/17/12 Composite Interest Rate JAN - - 0.53%2/10/12 Foreign Reserves 3-Feb - - - - 2/20/12 CPI - Composite Index (YoY) JAN - - 5.7%16-20 FEB Total Car Sales JAN - - 54575 2/21/12 Unemployment Rate SA JAN - - 3.3%2/17/12 Forw ard Contracts 10-Feb - - - - 2/23/12 Exports YoY% JAN - - 7.4%2/17/12 Foreign Reserves 10-Feb - - - - 2/23/12 Imports YoY% JAN - - 8.1%

2/20/12 Gross Domestic Product SA (QoQ)

4Q - - 0.5% 2/23/12 Trade Balance JAN - - -48.9B

2/20/12 Gross Domestic Product (YoY) 4Q - - 3.5% 2/29/12 Money Supply M1 - in HK$ (YoY) JAN - - 8.8%

20-22 FEB Customs Exports (YoY) JAN - - -2.0% 2/29/12 Money Supply M2 - in HK$ (YoY) JAN - - 4.6%

20-22 FEB Customs Imports (YoY) JAN - - 19.1% 2/29/12 Money Supply M3 - in HK$ (YoY) JAN - - 4.6%

20-22 FEB Customs Trade Balance JAN - - -$2130M 2/29/12 Govt Mthly Budget Surp/Def HK$ JAN - - 38.3B2/21/12 Annual GDP (YoY) 2011 - - - - 3/1/12 Retail Sales - Value (YoY) JAN - - - -2/24/12 Forw ard Contracts 17-Feb - - - - 3/1/12 Retail Sales - Volume (YoY) JAN - - - -2/28/12 Mfg. Production Index ISIC (SA) JAN - - 134.10 3/5/12 Puchasing Managers Index FEB - - - -

2/28/12 Mfg. Production Index ISIC (YoY) JAN - - -25.80 3/7/12 Foreign Currency Reserves FEB - - - -

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

US SingaporeEconomic Announcement

Source: Bloomberg

Thailand Hong Kong

Source: Bloomberg

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Date Statistic For Survey Prior Date Statistic For Survey Prior03-07 FEB Consumer Conf idence Index JAN - - 116.6 2/9/12 Repurchase Rate 9-Feb - - 7.000%03-06 FEB Foreign Reserves JAN - - $110.12B 2/9/12 Reverse Repo Rate 9-Feb - - 8.500%03-06 FEB Net Foreign Assets (IDR Tln) JAN - - 965.87T 09-21 FEB Exports YoY% DEC - - 11.6%2/6/12 GDP Constant Price (YoY) 4Q 6.45% 6.54% 09-20 FEB Imports YoY% DEC - - 78.0%2/6/12 GDP Constant Price (QoQ) 4Q -1.50% 3.50% 2/29/12 CPI Moving Average (YoY) FEB - - - -2/6/12 Annual GDP 2011 6.44% 6.10% 2/29/12 CPI (YoY) FEB - - - -2/9/12 Bank Indonesia Reference Rate 9-Feb 6.00% 6.00% 09-20 MAR Exports YoY% JAN - - - -10-20 FEB Total Local Auto Sales JAN - - 80325 09-20 MAR Imports YoY% JAN - - - -10-20 FEB Total Motorcycle Sales JAN - - 460535 15-30 MAR GDP (YoY) 4Q - - 8.4%3/1/12 Inf lation (YoY) FEB - - 3.65% 3/30/12 CPI Moving Average (YoY) MAR - - - -3/1/12 Inf lation NSA (MoM) FEB - - 0.76% 3/30/12 CPI (YoY) MAR - - - -3/1/12 Core Inflation (YoY) FEB - - 4.29% 10-20 APR Exports YoY% FEB - - - -3/1/12 Exports (YoY) JAN - - 2.2% 10-20 APR Imports YoY% FEB - - - -3/1/12 Total Imports (YoY) JAN - - 24.3% 4/30/12 CPI Moving Average (YoY) APR - - - -3/1/12 Total Trade Balance JAN - - $859M 4/30/12 CPI (YoY) APR - - - -

Date Statistic For Survey Prior2/6/12 TD Securities Inflation MoM% JAN - - 0.5%2/6/12 TD Securities Inflation YoY% JAN - - 2.4%2/6/12 ANZ Job Advertisements (MoM) JAN - - -0.9%2/6/12 Retail Sales s.a. (MoM) DEC 0.2% 0.0%2/6/12 Retail Sales Ex Inf lation(QoQ) 4Q 0.6% 0.6%2/7/12 AiG Perf of Construction Index JAN - - 41.02/7/12 RBA CASH TARGET 7-Feb 4.0% 4.3%2/7/12 Foreign Reserves JAN - - A$46.1B2/10/122/13/12 Home Loans MoM DEC - - 1.4%2/13/12 Investment Lending DEC - - 1.8%

2/13/12 Ow ner-Occupied Home Loan Value MoM

DEC - - 2.2%

2/14/12 NAB Business Conditions JAN - - 12/14/12 NAB Business Conf idence JAN - - 3

2/15/12 Westpac Consumer Confidence s.a. (MoM)

FEB - - 2.4%

Australia

Reserve Bank Board Statement on Monetary Policy

Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

Sri Lanka

Source: Bloomberg

Indonesia

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