regional issues and trends - business council of fairfield county
TRANSCRIPT
June 15 2012
Regional Issues & Trends is a presentation of the Fairfield County Information Exchange, launched in 1990 by The Business
Council of Fairfield County. It has become a respected source for information on the issues and trends related to the region's
marketplace, its workers, industries, and economic development challenges.
The Information Exchange is supported by corporations located throughout the county, in addition to a network of public
officials, CEOs, public, private and non-profit leaders from throughout the 23-town region, and the state Department of
Economic and Community Development.
The Exchange also distributes periodic reports analyzing the region's economic development assets, as well as its challenges.
Past reports have focused on the region's job recovery, higher education institutions, regional airports, transportation patterns,
cost of business improvements, trends in employment, housing, retail sales, office space, and other economic benchmarks.
Additional resources are available at www.BusinessFairfield.com/fcie.htm.
The Exchange is served by a steering committee of regional business leaders including The Ashforth Company;
CB Richard Ellis; Connecticut Light & Power; Finn Dixon and Herling LLP; Jones Lang LaSalle; O’Connor Davies, LLP; TD Bank;
and Wells Fargo.
2
Where we are
3
Where we are
– In the Washington – Boston megalopolis
– At the intersection of New England and New York
– Within the Metro New York tri-state region
– Connecticut for elections, K-12 education, housing, worship, taxes, land use planning, workforce development.
– Metro NY for economic vitality and sense of place.
4
Where we are
– Shared between Fairfield County and NYC metro: • Metropolitan Transportation Authority (MTA)
• Media (broadcast, NY Times)
• Federal Reserve Bank of New York
• Housing
• Cultural and recreation
• Health care (hospital systems)
• Sports team allegiances
5
Tri-State Metro New York Region
The total land area of the extended metropolitan area is 11,842 sq mi (30,671 km2).
An estimated population of 19,069,796 (roughly 1 in 16 Americans)
6
Fairfield County
– 23 Municipalities
– 916,829 people – 26% of state’s population (3.5m)
– 1,430 persons per square mile • 2x as dense as state as whole
– 406,154 jobs, 25% of state’s jobs
– 27,291 private employers, 30% of state’s employers
Pop - US Census 2010; Jobs- US BLS Sept. 2011; US 2009 US Economic Census
7
NYC
BOSTON
L.I. Sound
Westchester County, NY
8
Context
9
Context
• Living legacies of historical choices
– Colonization, immigration and slavery
• First European settlers: 1630’s
• Colonies become small states, within federal structure
• Diverse population
• Education achievement gap and racially-influenced economic status
10
Context
• Demographic and social change
– A Nation of Immigrants
– Aging “baby boomers”
– Impact of social media and Internet
• Post-manufacturing regional knowledge economy.
• Politically unified government with activist executive as governor (after decades of divided government and “legislative” governors.
11
Who we are
12
Who we are
• Demographics
– Population mix
• Minority becomes majority
– Population projections
– Place of origin
13
Census shows mixed rate of growth
Growth 2010 Pop 1990-2000 2000-2010 Increased growth over 90-00
US 308,745,538 13.2% 9.7%
Connecticut 3,574,097 3.6% 4.9% Fairfield County 916,829 6.6% 3.9%
Hartford County 894,014 6.3% 4.3%
New Haven County
862,477 2.4% 4.7%
New York State 19,378,102 5.5% 2.1% NYC is disputing for undercounting
New Jersey 8,791,894 8.9% 4.5%
US Census, 2010 14
Positive growth, but for some, slower than previous decade
Growth 2010 Pop 1990-2000 2000-2010
Bridgeport 144,229 -1.5% 3.4%
State’s largest cities
New Haven 129,779 -5.2% 5.0%
Hartford 124,775 -13.0% 2.6%
Stamford 122,643 8.4% 4.7%
Waterbury 110,366 -1.6% 2.9%
Norwalk 85,603 5.9% 3.2%
Danbury 80,893 14.1% 8.1%
Greenwich 61,171 4.6% .1%
Fairfield 59,404 7.3% 3.6%
US Census, 2010 15
US Births: Minority officially majority
• Births – include Hispanics, Black and Asian -reached 50.4%; non-Hispanic whites accounted for 49.6%
• Between 2000-2010 there were more Hispanic births in US than arriving Hispanic immigrants
• Minorities accounted for 92% of nation’s population growth in last decade
• In Fairfield County, minorities accounted for more than 100% of growth, as white population dropped 2%
• Non-Hispanic whites projected to become minority of the population (47% by 2050)
New York Times, Whites account for under half births in U.S., May 17, 2012; Pew Social Trends, May, 2012 16
Hispanic/Latino Population Growth in CT 2000-2010
Region
2000 2010 2000-2010
# % # % % increase
CT 320,323 9.4% 479,087 13.4% 4%
Fairfield County
104,835 11.9% 155,025 16.9% 5%
Bridgeport 44,478 31.9% 55,100 38.2% 6.3%
Danbury 11,791 15.8% 20,185 25% 9.2%
Norwalk 12,966 15.6% 20,770 24.3% 8.7%
Stamford 19,635 16.8% 29,188 23.8% 7%
US Census, 2000 and 2010 17
• Hispanic/Latino pop represents 17% of Fairfield County population in 2010 vs. 12% in 2000 • Group has increased at state level by 49.6% since 2000, by 47.9% at county level. •Norwalk saw 60% increase; Stamford 49%; Danbury 71%
Percent Change in Race and Ethnicity 2000-2010
% Change 2000 to 2010
Total Pop White Black or African American
Asian or Pacific Islander
Hispanic or Latino of any race
Conn 4.9% -0.3% 16.9% 64.7% 49.6%
Fairfield County 3.9% -2.0% 12.4 % 47.4 % 47.9%
Bridgeport 3.4% -9.2% 16.1% 8.2% 23.9%
Danbury 8.1% -2.9% 14.7% 34.0% 71.2%
Norwalk 3.2% -4.1% -3.8% 51.6% 60.2%
Stamford 4.7% -2.5% -5.3% 65.4% 48.7%
US Census, 2010 and 2000 18
Components of Population Change July 1, 2010 – July 1, 2011
Area
Estimated Pop as of July 1
Pop Change,
2010-2011
Vital Events Net Migration
2010 2011 Natural Increase
Births Deaths Total Intl Domestic
CT 3,575,498 3,580,709 .2% 9,075 37,319 28,244 -3,758 9,735 -13,493
Fairfield County
918,339 925,899 .8% 4,205 10,396 6,191 3,423 3,870 -477
19 US Census, Population Division, Estimates of Components of Pop Change for Counties – April 2012
Population Change in Fairfield County July 1, 2010 – July 1, 2011
Vital Events Net Migration
Natural Increase
Births Deaths Total Int’l Domestic
2008-2009 4,403 10,969 6,566 2,606 4,884 -2,278
2010-2011 4,205 10,396 6,191 3,423 3,870 -477
20 US Census, Population Division, Estimates of Components of Pop Change for Counties – April 2012
Drop in Int’l migration during recession, but also drop in moves out of region
Population Change in Fairfield County: Each Year from 2000-2011
-11000
-9000
-7000
-5000
-3000
-1000
1000
3000
5000
7000
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011
Natural Increase (births-deaths)
IN - Net Intl Migration
OUT - Net Internal Migration
>Breaks with trend: In 2011 natural increase beats out intl relos >Continued slowing of movement out and in >Restricted movement since no region was spared in downturn?
7/00-7/03 Recession
3/08-12/09 Recession
US Census, Population Division, Estimates of Components of Pop Change for Counties – 2000-2011, April 2012; Note 2010 NA 21
Workforce
Highly educated region (Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk) No. 15 in Forbes 25 Smartest Cities 2008 But unlike the majority of the ranked cities, not a ‘college town’
Grown here? Bachelors degree held by those* born in state of residence Fairfield County 29% Westchester County 60% New Haven County 52%
Bachelors degree held by those* born in other state in US Fairfield County 52% Westchester County 16.4% New Haven County 31%
2007-2009 American Community Survey, *Pop 25 yrs and over
22
A Closer Look:
– Break out of Bachelor’s degree holders living in Stamford (% of adults with degrees)
• Total 19,213
• Born in Connecticut 23.7%
• Born in another state 42.8%
• Native, born outside US 1.6%
• Foreign born 32.3%
2007-2009 American Community Survey 3-Year Estimates, Pop 25 yrs and over
23
The Fine Print
• Net Domestic Migration - The difference between domestic in-migration to an area and domestic out-migration from the same area during a time period. Domestic in- and out-migration consist of moves where both the origin and the destination are within the United States (excluding Puerto Rico). The net domestic migration rate expresses net domestic migration during a time period as a proportion of an area’s population at the midpoint of the time period. Rates are expressed per 1,000 population.
• Net International Migration - Any change of residence across the borders of the United States (50 states and District of Columbia). The U.S. Census Bureau makes estimates of net international migration for the nation, states, and counties. We estimate net international migration in four parts: (1) net international migration of the foreign born, (2) net migration between the United States and Puerto Rico, (3) net migration of natives to and from the United States, and (4) net movement of the Armed Forces population between the United States and overseas. The largest component, net international migration of the foreign born, includes lawful permanent residents (immigrants), temporary migrants (such as students), humanitarian migrants (such as refugees), and people illegally present in the United States. Currently, we do not estimate these components individually. The Census definition of foreign born is available on the foreign-born population page. The international migration rate expresses net international migration during a time period as a proportion of an area’s population at the midpoint of the time period. Rates are expressed per 1,000 population.
24
The Fine Print (continued)
• Net Migration - Net domestic migration plus net international migration. The net migration rate expresses net migration during a time period as a proportion of an area’s population at the midpoint of the time period.
• Foreign born -People who are not U.S. citizens at birth.
• Native population - People born in either the United States, Puerto Rico, or a U.S. Island Area such as Guam or the U.S. Virgin Islands, or people born in a foreign country to a U.S. citizen parent(s).
25
Population Projections to 2025
Connecticut State Data Center, University of Connecticut - http://ctsdc.uconn.edu/projections.html; historical pop, US Census
Pop 2015 projected to range from 920,084 to 933,807 Pop 2020 projected to range from 922,500 to 958,959 Pop 2025 projected to range from 924,835 to 989,721 2025 Pop increase over 2010 .9% with low fertility 8% with high fertility
882,567 +6.7%
827,645 +2.5%
916,829 +4%
26
Origin and Movement 1990 to 2010 NATIVE/FOREIGN BORN POPULATION GROWTH IN FAIRFIELD COUNTY
1990 2000 2010
Number % Number % Number %
Native pop 726,684 88% 733,529 83% 723,015 80%
Born in CT 384,885 47% 399,184 45% 390,849 43.2%
Born in another state 314,957 38% 308,179 35% 305,791 33.8%
Born outside of US 26,842 3% 36,166 3% 26,375 2.9%
Foreign born 100,961 12% 149,038 17% 182,327 20%
TOTAL Pop 827,645 882,567 905,342
US Census, 1990, 2000 and 2010 from 2006-2010 5-year estimates; DP02 SELECTED SOCIAL CHARACTERISTICS IN THE UNITED STATES
27
Birthplaces of Fairfield County Foreign Born
2.7 0.3
50.1
2.8
17.5
26.6
North America
Oceania
Latin America
Africa
Asia
Europe
China 3% India 6%
Haiti 4% Brazil 7% Jamaica 5% Ecuador 6% Mexico 5% Guatemala 5%
UK 4% Italy 3% Poland 3%
American Community Survey, 2005-2009 5 year estimates 28
Babies Born to Foreign Born Mothers 2006-2010
Babies Born to Foreign Born % of Pop that is Foreign Born
Fairfield County 1 in 3 (34.5%) 20%
Bridgeport 1 in 3 (38%) 27%
Danbury 1 in 2 (49.7%) 30%
Norwalk 1 in 3 23%
Stamford 3 in 5 (60%) 38%
CT 1 in 5 (21.6%) 13%
Westchester 2 in 5 (39%) 24%
NYCo 1 in 3 (35%) 29%
NYS 1 in 3 (31%) 22%
US 1 in 5 (21%) 13%
American Community Survey Estimates, US Census, 2006-2010 5-yr estimates 29
How are we doing?
30
How are we doing?
Economy
• Recovery
• Historical jobs and jobs by sector
• Unemployment
• Projections
• Real Estate
31
Jobs Recovery
• CT has recovered almost 1 out of every 3 jobs lost during recession (Mar 2008-Feb 2010)
• Government losses impact: – Nonfarm
• Jobs lost = 117,500 • Jobs recovered = 34,100 or 29%
– Private Sector • Jobs lost = 110,200 • Jobs recovered = 44,400 or 40.3%
• Lagging behind nat’l recovery 30.6% vs. 36.1%
Labor Situation, CT Dept. of Labor, May 17, 2012 32
Jobs Recovery
• Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk has recovered a little over 1 out of every 5 jobs lost during recession (Mar 2008-Feb 2010)
• Nonfarm • Jobs lost = 30,000
• Jobs recovered = 7,000 or 23%
• Private Sector • Jobs lost = 29,600
• Jobs recovered = 15,800 or 53%
US Bureau of Labor Statistics 33
34 2012 US Metro Economies, The United States Conference of Mayors and The Council for the New American City US Conference of Mayors
• At end of 2011, only 34% metros had seen any job growth • At end of 2012, forecasts for almost all see growth – with US regaining 48% jobs • For 80 metros will take more than 5 yrs to gain back jobs lost • NYC recovers by 2014 • Bridgeport-Stamford forecasted to recoup jobs by 2016-2017
Bridgeport-Stamford 2016-2017
New York 2014
Houston 2010-2011
Los Angeles 2018 or later
San Jose 2014
Chicago 2015
US Metro Economies and Recovery
Shifts in Largest Job Sectors Last 10 Yrs FAIRFIELD COUNTY
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10 11 12 13 14 15
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Health Care 57,697
Retail 48,337 jobs
Govt 45,157 jobs
Manuf 37,433
Financial 37,229
Prof and Tech 28,512
CT DOL, QCEW 2001 -2011
2011
% o
f A
ll jo
bs
35
Health Care 48,517
Retail 51,253
Govt 44,633
Manuf 50,825
Financial 35,082
Prof and Tech 33,795
2001
Shift in Number of Jobs Last 5 Yrs BRIDGEPORT – STAMFORD – NORWALK LABOR MARKET
375.0
380.0
385.0
390.0
395.0
400.0
405.0
410.0
415.0
420.0
425.0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
US BLS, Total Nonfarm, Seasonally Adjusted, June 2012 36
Recent Unemployment Region and US
April 2012
March 2012
Feb 2012
Jan 2012
May 2011
May 2010
May 2009
May 2008
Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk
7.0 7.6 7.7 7.9 8.2 8.4 7.7 5.0
Danbury 5.9 6.6 6.7 6.9 6.9 7.6 7.2 4.3
Conn 7.7 7.7 7.8 8.0 8.9 9.2 8.1 5.3
US 8.1 8.2 8.3 8.3 9.0 9.6 9.4 5.4
US BLS Metros not seasonally adjusted, by place of residence, US and CT Data Seasonally Adjusted, US BLS 37
Looking to the Future CT JOB PROJECTIONS
• Job Increases Statewide 2011 16,000+ (but dropped 4,100 from 3/12 to 4/12) 2012 11,300+ 2013 12,500+ 2012-16 85,300 Lost Jobs (117,500) to be recovered by Q2 2016
• Unemployment
– 2011 8.8% (7.7% as of 4/12) – 2012 7.5% – 2013 7.2% – 2 016 6.6%
Connecticut Forecast for New England Economic Partnership, Ed Deak, Fairfield University, May 2012 38
Economy – Bright Spots
• CT had 9th fastest economic growth rate in US – 2% increase in real GDP over 2010 – with finance, prof services and manufacturing as largest
contributor to state growth
• US Consumer Confidence levels up – and down – Conference Board Consumer Confidence down – less positive about labor market; but upbeat
on their income prospects – Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index at 4 week high, but still regarded as ‘economically
discontent’ – CEO Confidence – optimistic about growth prospects
• 67% say conditions have improved over 6 mos ago vs. 17% Q42011
• Growth in Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk projected to increase by 4,500 (1.1%) 2012Q4 over 2011Q4
• 41% region’s jobs to be recovered by end of 2012 – 421,000 vs. pre-recession peak
of 440,200; trough 407,700
US Bureau of Economic Analysis, June 5, 2012; The Conference Board, April 2012; 2102 US Conference of Mayors Employment Forecast
39
Economy – Bright Spots
• CT’s initial weekly unemployment claims down 2% March 2012 over March 2011
• Recession recovery – CT recovered 34,100 (29%) of 117,500 total nonfarm jobs lost March 2008-Feb 2010 recession
• CT personal income growth in 2011 was 5% (21st in nation)
• Wage and salary advancing in state at 1.8% rate
CT Controller Report, June 1, 2012; CT DOL; US BEA 40
Economy – and not so bright spots • Wall Street bonuses expected to fall 14% in 2011 per NY State
Comptroller
• June US jobless benefits claims increased to 382,000 - highest level in 6 weeks
• Over 12 month period ending April, CT lost 2,300 jobs
• Over 12 mo. period ending April, Bridgeport-Stamford lost 100 jobs
• While household debt has retreated, student load debt hit $904b Q1 2012 – a $30b increase over Q4 2011
• US Median net worth fell 38% from $126,400 in 2007 to $77,300 in 2010 down to level for 1992
• US home prices fell 22% from Sept 2007-Sept 2010
WSJ, March 6, 2012; BLS; CT Controller Report, June 1, 2012; NY Fed Quarterly Report on Household Debt and Credit, May 31, 2012
41
Recent look at region’s job losses
• April 2011 to April 2012 down 100 jobs - 398,600 vs. 398,500
• Biggest losers: – Finance and insurance lost 1,800 jobs or -4.9%
– Leisure and hospitality lost 1,300
– Manufacturing lost 500
• Big gains: – Wholesale trade +300
– Transp, Utilities +200
– Educ and health services +2,800
42 CT DOL, Current Employment Statistics, not seasonally adjusted
Assessments of CT Economy
• Conn Center for Economic Analysis
– Aging population, lack of job creation, forced young labor force out of state for jobs
– Projecting “weak” creation 30,000-35,000 new jobs to 2014
– Jackson Labs and related hirings could add 10,000
– Still 60,000 jobs needed to replace 120,000 lost
– Recommends ‘aggressive expansion policy’ using tax credits tied to job creation
43 The Connecticut Mirror, Report: Aging workforce threatens state’s economic recovery, May 24, 2012; UConn CCEA, Recovery Stirring? But will Connecticut be too Old to Compete?, Connecticut Economic Outlook May 2012
Assessments of CT Economy
• UConn, The Connecticut Economy
– Reports CT added 7,000 jobs Q1 2012
– Predicts Bridgeport-Stamford region will add 4,800 jobs from Q2 2012 to Q1 2013 and unemployment rate will drop from 7.4% to 6.4% in same time frame
– Forecasts if CT GDP growth ranges from 2 -3% for next 4 Qs state will add 2,500 – 3,200 jobs per quarter or 10,000-12,800 jobs to Q1 2013
44 The Connecticut Economy, UConn, Summer 2012
45
Fed recent assessment
NYC: Strongest
recovery in region, well above their
pre-recession peak
Fairfield County:
Job growth positive but
not same rate as nation
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Regional Economic Press Briefing, May 30, 2012
46
Fed recent assessment
Significant declines in US,
Fairfield County and No.
NJ –
now seeing a modest
recovery
Federal Reserve Bank of New York, Regional Economic Press Briefing, May 30, 2012
Housing Increased cycle, Decreasing Price, Decreasing Sales
Days on Market Median Sales Price Single Family
Number of Sales
2011 2010 2009 2008 2011 2010 2009 2008 2011 2010 2009 2008 %
Stamford 142 139 132 127 535k 588k 575k 640k 527 535 488 463 -1.5
Fairfield County
153 148 144 137 465k 475k 437.5k
515k 5610 5994 5175 5361 -6.4
Conn 150 141 136 130 250k 260k 250k 280k 21,366 23,100 23,318 23,004 -7.5
Prudential Connecticut Realty, 2011 in Review, Single-family homes; Projections – Ed Deak, Fairfield University, Connecticut Forecast, New England Economic Partnership, May 2012
47
Projections State Sales 2012 37,500 2013 44,100 2014 49,500 2016 47,200
Silver Linings? Projections Median Price 2012 250k 2013 261k 2016 292k
New Housing Permits
300 199 222 451 571 394 219 96 290 258 247 631 684
35 152 207 0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
96 97 98 99 0 01 02 03 04 05 05 07 08 09 10 11
Fairfield County
Stamford
Connecticut
Data note: Housing starts vs. permits: Permits precede starts by about 3 mos. State doesn't track starts.
CT
CT DECD; Projections – Ed Deak, Fairfield University, Connecticut Forecast, New England Economic Partnership, May 2012; The Connecticut Economy, Summer 2012
48
CT permits down 19% 2011 over 2010 CT permits up 75.8% 2012 Q1 Y-Y Fairfield Co. permits up 1% 2011 over 2010 Bridgeport-Stamford saw 230% increase with 429 permits for 2012 Q1 Projections: Pent-up demand to drive up 2012 3,473 2013 4,444 2016 7,912
Fairfield Co
Fairfield County Office Market
Markets Square Footage
Class A & B
Direct Vacancy
Class A & B
Avg Rent
Class A
A B
Greenwich 4,805,432 17.2% 9.2% $ 66.73
Stamford 16,801,836 22.9% 23.3 % $39.79
Fairfield
Central 12,067,636 16.2% 24.0% $29.36
Route 7
Corridor 5,803,237 16.6% 25.5% $31.27
Norwalk/I-95 3,172,750 14.9% 30.7% $24.67
Fairfield
County 48,553,394 18.1% 21.5% $35.82
Jones Lang LaSalle, Q4 2011 49
Fairfield County Office Market
“A rising availability rate coupled with low leasing levels brought the County’s average asking rents down 1% over the past year. However, both Greenwich and Stamford CBD experienced 4% increases.”
CBRE Year End 2011 MarketView 50
The Office – Trending?
• Recent study found 60% office spaces had unassigned workspaces in their offices, and among ½ had increased unassigned spaces in last 2 year
• Use of dedicated space changing with client-based firms – Starwood to temporarily relocate HQ to Dubai in
2013
International Facility Management Association Study, 2012 51
Potential for Change HARTFORD’S RESPONSE TO ISSUES IMPACTING CT
• Education
• Infrastructure
• Energy
• Tax Policy
• Transportation
• Economic Development
52
Education
53
Education – The Facts
• Achievement Gap worst in nation
• By 2018 – 65% CT jobs will require post-secondary education
• Yet 41% of CT working age residents have college degree
• CT has increased # of young adults with college degree, but our national ranking slipped from 4th to 7th
54
The Business Council of Fairfield County Policy Brief , ‘Connecticut’s Achievement Gap 2012’
Education – The Facts
• 42% CT 4th graders read at or above proficient, NAEP standards
• 100% - 42% = How much?
• Reading IS fundamental
– Studies cite inability to read in early grades predictor of poor performance later
– Some states predict future prison needs by 2nd grade reading levels
55 The Business Council of Fairfield County Policy Brief , ‘Connecticut’s Achievement Gap 2012’
Education – The Challenge
Year
Connecticut Fourth Graders
NAEP Reading Achievement Levels (Percent)
Below
Basic
At
Basic
At Proficient At
Advanced
2011 27 31 30 12
2009 24 33 31 11
2007 27 31 29 12
2005 29 32 27 12
2003 26 31 30 13
2002 26 32 31 12
1998 24 33 32 11
1998* 22 33 34 11
1994* 32 30 27 11
1992* 31 35 27 6
*Accommodations not permitted. SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Education Statistics, National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), 1992-2011 Reading Assessments, www.nationsreportcard.gov.
42% 4th Graders read at or above proficient level
56
Performance by Race and Ethnicity
Percentage of Connecticut Fourth Graders Reading at Each Achievement Level by Race and Ethnicity 2011
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, Institute of Education Sciences, National Center for Education Statistics, National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP), 2011 Reading Assessments. 57
HS Graduation Rates by Race and Ethnicity
Public high school Averaged Freshman Graduation Rate (AFGR) by
race/ethnicity and state
State
Averaged Freshman Graduation Rate by Race and Ethnicity-2008-2009
White Black Asian/Pacific
Islander
Hispanic
AFGR Rank AFGR Rank AFGR Rank AFGR Rank
Reporting states 82.0 63.5 91.8 65.9
New Jersey 89.1 4 75.9 7 99.1 11 76.1 9
California 80.8 26 57.7 45 91.9 33 61.6 39
New York 85.1 12 58.1 44 88.4 41 57.4 45
Connecticut 81.8 22 63.5 32 88.5 40 55.5 47
SOURCE: U.S. Department of Education, National Center for Education Statistics, Common Core of Data (CCD), "NCES Common Core of Data State Dropout and Completion Data File," School Year 2008–09, Version 1a.
The averaged freshman graduation rate (AFGR) provides an estimate of the percentage of public high school students who graduate on time—that is, 4 years after starting 9th grade—with a regular diploma. The rate uses aggregate student enrollment data to estimate the size of an incoming freshman class and aggregate counts of the number of diplomas awarded 4 years later. The incoming freshman class size is estimated by summing the enrollment in 8th grade for 1 year, 9th grade for the next year, and 10th grade for the year after and then dividing by 3. The averaging is intended to account for higher grade retention rates in the 9th grade. Although not as accurate as an on-time graduation rate computed from a cohort of students using individual student record data, this estimate of an on-time graduation rate can be computed with currently available data.
58
Educational Attainment by Race and Ethnicity in Fairfield County
Pop 25 yrs and over
Total Pop White alone
Black or African
American alone
Asian alone Hispanic or
Latino (of any race)
Less than HS diploma
11.6% 8.9% 21.3 % 10.0% 32.7%
HS Grad, GED 23.7 22.7 34.7 9.7 30.5
Some college or Associate’s
21 21.1 25.3 12.4 19.8
Bachelor’s 24.5 26.5 12.1 33.5 11.1
Graduate or Prof 19.1 20.7 6.6 34.4 5.8
US Census, American Community Survey, 2007-2009 3 yr estimates
59
Employment Status by Race and Ethnicity in Fairfield County
Pop 16yrs and over
Total Pop White alone
Black or African
American alone
Asian alone Hispanic or
Latino (of any race)
Total Pop 703,812 551,136 71,401 30,845 104,960
% In Labor Force 67.6 66.2 70.7 70.0 73.2
% Employed 62.4 61.9 61.3 65.7 65.7
% Unemployed 7.6 6.5 13.3 6.1 10.6
US Census, American Community Survey, 2006-2010 5 yr estimates
60
Where are the HS grads going?
Class
Of
Total
Grads
Four Year
Two Year
Other
Education Military
Civilian
Employment Unemployed Others
2010 37,904 21,762 8,993 1,694 695 2,552 245 1,935
2009 38,266 21,727 9,058 1,608 763 3,064 313 1,733
2008 38,419 22,302 8,477 1,544 609 3,617 430 1,440
2007 37,551 21,687 8,005 1,656 582 4,024 260 1,337
2006 36,222 21,244 7,276 1,535 619 4,034 260 1,254
2005 35,480 20,484 7,318 1,399 607 4,302 333 1,023
2004 34,544 19,849 7,028 1,296 695 4,184 280 1,213
2003 33,665 18,983 6,619 1,148 936 4,328 362 981
2002 32,192 18,956 5,771 942 895 4,358 293 977
2001 30,388 18,135 5,057 844 866 4,338 223 925
2000 29,610 17,627 4,687 926 843 4,370 197 960
Post-graduation plans of Connecticut high school graduates
Source: Connecticut Department of Education, Hartford, CT 61
Diploma in hand but unprepared
Remedial and Developmental Education- Fall 2010
College
Total CT pubic
high school
graduates enrolled
Students not
recommended for
developmental courses
Students recommended for
developmental math,
English or both
Number # % # %
Community College
System 7051 1264 18
5148 73
CSU system 3572 1202 34 2370 66
Source: CT Board of Regents, P20 Council Data, www.ctregents.org. 62
Impact of preparedness on graduation?
Graduation Rates - 2009 by State
State Three-Year Graduation Rates for Associate
Students
Six-Year Graduation Rates of Bachelor's
Students
Grad Rate Rank Beg
Fall 2006
Grad by
Summer
2009
Grad Rate Rank Beginning
Fall 2003
Grad by
Summer
2009
Avg 29.2 791,309 231,328 55.5 1,457,717 808,446
CT 11.7 50 5,759 671 65.9 3 17,862 11,774
MA 20.2 40 13,384 2,705 69.2 1 48,232 33,373
NJ 16.8 43 26,580 4,456 63.3 8 24,900 15,751
NY 21.4 38 54,474 11,644 5,932 15 111,993 66,300
Source: The National Center for Higher Education Management Systems (NCHEMS) http://www.higheredinfo.org/dbrowser/index.php?measure=19
CT’s Associate Grad rate worst in nation. Yet Bachelor Grad rate ranked #3.
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Higher Ed Attainment Weakened
Percent of Population 25-34 Years Attaining an Associate's Degree or Higher
State
2005-09 2000 Change
Pct Rank Pct Rank Pct Rank for Δ
in Rank from 2000 to 2005-09
CT 45.7% 7 42.5% 4 3.2% 34 -3
MA 53.9% 1 49.2% 1 4.7% 13 0
NJ 46.4% 5 41.3% 7 5.1% 6 2
NY 48.9% 3 42.3% 6 6.6% 1 3
US 38.6% -- 35.0% -- 3.6% -- --
Data Sources: U.S. Census Bureau. Census 2000, Summary File 3, Table PCT 25; American Community Survey 2005-09, Table B15001).
Although we have increased the number of young adults who have an Associate’s Degree or higher, our national ranking has slipped from 4th to 7th since 2000.
64
Source of Graph: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Current Population Survey
And that is important why?
65
21,911
31,954
41,061
65,680
87,294
22,635
32,961
40,326
57,222
73,963
19,492
27,281
33,593
48,485
63,612
Less than HS Grad
High School Grad
Some College or Associate's
Bachelor's
Graduate or Prof
US
Connecticut
Fairfield County
3.5
Unemployment Rate 2010 Median Income past 12 months 2010 ($)
3.3
3.9
6.3
7
7.5
8
8
8
12.1
14
12
Impact Education on Employment & Pay
US Census, American Community Survey, 2010 5-yr estimates 66
Employment status by Educational Attainment in Fairfield County
Total Pop In Labor
Force Employed Unempl Rate
Pop 25 to 64 486,810 80.9% 75.8 6.3%
Less than HS diploma 46,253 70.4 61.8 12.2%
HS Grad, GED 106,837 80.2 73.7 8.0%
Some college or Associate’s
105,909 82.1 76.0 7.5%
Bachelor’s or higher 227,811 82.8 79.5 3.9%
US Census, American Community Survey, 2006-2010 5 yr estimates
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Educational Attainment 25 and over and New Jobs by degree
Fairfield County Connecticut
Jobs Forecasted by education level,
2018 for CT
Number % Number %
HS Grad, GED 142,781 24% 680,727 28.9% 562,000
Associate’s 37,242 6.3% 173,876 7.4% 364,000
Bachelor’s 145,831 24.5% 464,454 19.7% 426,000
Master’s 82,796 13.9% 255,476 10.9%
282,000 (Graduate Degree)
Prof school degree
20,684 3.5% 65,062 2.8%
Doctorate 8,296 1.4% 33,717 1.4%
US Census, American Community Survey, 2006-2008 3 yr estimates; Georgetown University, Center on Education and the Workforce, June 2010
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Education – The Potential
• Landmark education bill
– To address school readiness >> pre-K funding
– To address poor performing districts >> $90 m in new money to improve
– To address reading deficiencies
>> Pilot program for 5 schools to monitor reading
>> Reading instruction test for new elementary teachers
>> Annual reading assessment K - 3
69
Education – The Potential
• Pilot program on teacher evaluations – Bridgeport and Norwalk included in the 10 districts chosen statewide
• Commissioner’s Network – work with 25 of state’s lowest performing districts over next 3 school years – form boards that will develop turnaround plans for their districts and submit plan to state; districts currently being decided
• US Education Secretary comes to Hartford to announce NCLB Waiver – Target Federal Title 1 dollars to more effectively meet student needs – Avoids a situation where nearly half of the state’s public schools would
have been deemed “failing” – setting in motion massive restructuring and possibly even school closures; and
– creates a system that more accurately measures student achievement across all levels
Connecticut Department of Education 70
Infrastructure
71
Infrastructure – The Facts
• What it is it? Foundation that enables economic and social connections
• “Infrastructure – both physical like transportation and virtual such as broadband connection – drives productivity directly and by acting as a platform for other productivity enhancing innovations to build scale.” McKinsey Global Institute
• World Economic Forum ranks US 23rd among nations for quality and efficiency of infrastructure
• Pew Foundation gave Connecticut a C+ in infrastructure investment with
state’s capital planning process defined as weakness
• Threat is cost to economic transactions and handicapping productivity gains
The Business Council of Fairfield County, ‘A Stronger Recovery, A Competitive Future’, August 2011 72
Infrastructure – The Facts
• National Investment needed over next 5 yrs for bridges, roads, ports, schools, water quality to digital systems for energy, broadband, and intelligent transportation estimated at $2.2 trillion
• Financing alternative through state infrastructure investment bank or PPPs
73 The Business Council of Fairfield County, ‘A Stronger Recovery, A Competitive Future’, August 2011
Infrastructure Needs in Region
• Areas requiring attention and funding in CT according to American Society of Civil Engineers
– $2.6b in wastewater infrastructure needs
– 34% state bridges structurally deficient or functionally obsolete
– 45% major roads in poor to mediocre state
– 58% state urban highways are congested
74 The Business Council of Fairfield County, ‘A Stronger Recovery, A Competitive Future’, August 2011
Infrastructure Needs in Region
• BCFC estimated $75-85B needed to invest in over next 20 yrs
• NY Comptroller has estimated needs to be $250b over next 20 yrs with $80b funding gap
• Mass. Transportation Financing Commission identified unfunded needs of $15-$19 b over next 20 yrs; $8.5b in drinking water infrastructure
75 The Business Council of Fairfield County, ‘A Stronger Recovery, A Competitive Future’, August 2011
Infrastructure – The Challenge
• States and federal government tax revenue constrained
• CT historically low level of private investment in infrastructure
• CT had lacked policy to tap private funding
76 The Business Council of Fairfield County, ‘A Stronger Recovery, A Competitive Future’, August 2011
Infrastructure – The Potential
• October 2011 ‘jobs bill’ – Allows executive branch and quasi-public agencies to
contract with private entities to “finance, design, construct, develop, operate or maintain” certain facilities
– Projects can be educational, health, early child care, transportation systems, ports and other transit-oriented developments
– Gov can approve up to 5 PPPs up to Jan 1 2015, with Appropriations and Bonding review and must produce new jobs
The Connecticut Mirror, Governor wins limited approval to expand public private partnerships, October 27, 2011 77
Infrastructure – The Potential
• Statewide conference with The National Council for Public-Private Partnerships and OPM – June 14
• Will outline for municipalities use of PPPs to address public need
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Energy
79
Energy – The Challenge
• Cost – currently proposed as a tax on those using the EID’s power
• Coordination on energy sources (?)
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Energy – The Potential
• Significance of microgrids in wake of 2011’s Two-Storms – and included in the subsequent recommendations of the Two-Storm Panel - to provide resiliency
• Stamford continues to work through details of Energy Improvement District created in 2007
81
Tax Policy
82
Tax Policy Taskforce
• Identify specific areas of business taxation and other issues (including tax credits and other tax benefits) that should be the focus of future legislation and state economic policy.
• Evaluate the cost, benefit, efficiency, effectiveness and measurable performance of the current business tax credit structure with respect to economic development, business retention and growth, and employment and growth.
83
Transportation
84
Transportation - Current initiatives
• Statewide – $30m from Feds for $1b NH – Hartford – Springfield high-speed rail, with 2016
launch – CTfastrak- state’s first rapid transit system breaks ground serving New Britain-
Hartford region; $455m from Feds, $112m CT
• Within Region
– 100 of the 405 cars ordered have been delivered and 86 are in use; and now account for 28% of the trains during the week
– Third Fairfield station added with 1,400 parking spaces – New parking garage replacement for Stamford and potential for transit
oriented development; 770 new spaces; $ 10.5m fed grant for improved access – pedestrian bridges, platform shelters, street level access to track
– Second Bridgeport station near Bridgeport Hospital planned, $1m from state bond commission for site remediation
85
Transportation - The Demand
• Ridership to New York total weekday
– Metro-North becomes nation’s largest commuter railway
• Ridership grew 1.4% in 2011 – to 82 million riders
• Beats out LIRR where ridership dropped to 81 million
• Ridership grew 6% from Jan-April 2012
2011 2008 2007 07-08 2001 01-11
Stamford 9,118 7,970 7,725 3% 6,126 48%
South Norwalk 2,167 2,123 2,015 5% 1,754 24%
Bridgeport 3,110 3,238 2,982 8.5% 2,484 25%
MetroNorth counts, SWRPA 86
Transportation – The Potential
• Springfield to Grand Central
• TOD/urban vitality
87
Economic Development
88
Economic Development – New Focus
• $180m Jobs Bill passed in October 2011 – Small business growth
• Small Business Express Program - $100m that includes loans, job creation credits for companies with 50 employees
– Innovation • Innovation Ecosystems - CT Innovations - $250 million over the next
five years, including $125 million in new funding from the State of Connecticut
– Regulations – Workforce development
• STEP – Subsidized Training and Employment Program – 50 employees
– Economic development • First Five - attract large-scale projects with state incentive and tax
credit programs for the first five companies that create 200 new jobs within two years, or invest $25m and create 200 new jobs within five years
89
• NBC Sports – leasing 260,000 sf – and a recipient of a $20m forgivable loan – under Governor Malloy’s “economic revival” strategy for Connecticut – structured around the creation of 450 new jobs.
• Starwood Hotels & Resorts Worldwide relocated its headquarters
and about 800 employees to Stamford in December 2011. • NYC based Chelsea Piers to open 400,000sf sports and
entertainment complex this summer in Stamford. Facilities will provide instructional and league programs for adults and youth, complete with 2 NHL regulation-sized ice rinks, multiple turf fields (for soccer, lacrosse, football, field hockey, softball, baseball, etc.), a 20,000 gymnastics center, an aquatics center with an Olympic-sized pool, seven tennis courts, twelve squash courts, etc.
Economic Development – New Focus
90
• Tronox - $3m 10 yr loan at 2% to establish global HQ in Stamford. to create 100 jobs within 3 years and $10m capital investment. If create 60 jobs within year 1 $2m is forgivable. If create 100 jobs and retained within 3 yrs, full forgiveness
• FactSet Research Systems Inc. – to add 200 employees over next 5 yrs, with 10 yr, $2m loan at 2.5%, potential for forgiveness on job creation
Economic Development – New Focus
91
Economic Development
• 2012 Jobs Bill killed in House – passed in June 12 Special Session
92
Structural challenges, opportunities
93
Structural challenges, opportunities
• Talent shortages will be created by “boomers” (born 1946-64) giving way to “busters”(1965-1980).
• Immigration is replacing population losses, but not all skills losses.
• Regional educational attainment rates cannot sustain our competitive position.
• 1965-95 period of workforce growth without population growth, enabled by doubling of participation by women, cannot be repeated.
94
Challenges, opportunities (cont.)
• Quality of life not perceived as “young professional friendly.”
• Congestion complicates commuting.
• Decentralized region reduces “sense of place/belonging” undermining framework needed for locally-focused leadership.
95
Forecast
96
Forecast
97
• Fairfield County
– Federal and New York region decisions have greater impact on Fairfield County economy than Connecticut government.
– Activist CT governor and unified government will have increasing impact on Fairfield County.
– Proximity to NYC will drive local economic evolution.
– Diverse population will be engine or anchor, making life long education a critical competitive asset or liability.
Forecast (continued)
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– “Community” will rebalance with “consumption” in personal life styles.
– Health will become a consumer experience and responsibility.
– Gen Y (20-30 year olds) will benefit from lessons learned in tough times early in careers, followed by demographic scarcity that will demand their skills for the balance of their careers.
– Boomers (45-65) are forced to work longer and stretch out transition from workforce.
– “Bust”/Gen X (30-45) will need to be patient just a bit longer.
Forecast (continued)
99
– Immigration will surge – under new rules – as economy recovers.
– Transit investments will produce easier access for coastal Connecticut into New York City, accelerating economic growth for a generation to come.
Forecast (continued)
– Four largest cities (Bridgeport, Danbury, Norwalk and Stamford) will prosper as housing and job centers for young professionals, the affluent old and recently arrived international immigrants.
– Other Fairfield County communities will continue to be primarily residential communities, with commercial development around train stations, if they have them.
– A successful, adaptive region will continue to adapt and succeed.
100