Visalia-Tulare-Porterville MSAPrepared by Beacon Economics, LLC

Twentieth Edition September 2015

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REGIONAL INTELLIGENCE

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U.S. Economic OutlookThe U.S. financial markets began to swoon over the summer of 2015. They have since recovered much of their lost ground, but the damage is done. The dip has reaffirmed, to many, the ongoing fragility of the current economic expansion. Beacon Economics disagrees. While all eyes have been focused on global equity markets, a slew of new economic data has been coming out that point to a healthier U.S. economy:

• The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis recently revised2nd quarter growth to 3.7%—substantially higher thantheir initial reading.

• Other data points to acceleration in the pace ofconstruction, industrial production, and businessinvestment.

• Consumer spending is up and job growth is on track toadd 2.6 million jobs this year.

• Interest rates remain low and bank delinquency ratescontinue to fall.

Add it all up and the nation’s economy could end up growing by 3% this year—the best showing since the start of the recovery. Not only does the U.S. economy not look fragile, it looks increasingly able to weather whatever storm is unleashed in Asia by a slowing Chinese economy.

Here are the big things that Beacon Economics is currently tracking:• Lowcommodityprices: The collapse in oil prices last

year caused a sharp pullback in oil exploration in the firsthalf of 2015. The good news for the second half of theyear is that spending on new wells has hit bottom andwill no longer act as a drag on the economy.

• Areboundinghousingmarket: The 2014 slow down inthe U.S. housing market recovery is now officially history.Existing home sales in July hit their second highest levelsince the markets began their collapse in 2006. Homeprice appreciation is also starting to accelerate fairlyuniformly across all major markets in the nation. And themarket still has plenty of headroom due to low interestrates—affordability today is considerably better than itwas in 2001 and 2002.

• Europe: The political drama that played out recentlyin Greece over the latest bailout has grabbed mostheadlines regarding the EU lately. That has unfortunatelyovershadowed the positive economic news comingfrom the old world. Industrial production is on the rise,and GDP and employment growth figures for the 2ndquarter looked promising for many countries includingSpain, France, and Italy. Bank balance sheets are beingrepaired and credit seems to be flowing again, andworries about deflation are waning. The EU looks to befirmly in recovery mode.

Despite these relatively positive (or at least not so negative) trends, there are still some causes for concern regarding the nation‘s economic climate.• Rising inequality: The recovery of the U.S. economy

over the past few years has not lifted all boats equally.Big moves in the financial markets have primarilybenefitted the wealthiest households in the nation.Average wages have been rising, but median wageshave not—suggesting that income gains are happeningmainly among skilled workers. The long-term trend ofrising inequality is unfortunately at play again after abrief respite in the midst of the ‘Great Recession’.

• Mortgage Credit: While there are some positivenumbers coming out of the housing market, the paceof new home construction remains very depressedrelative to long run trends. Holding back the potential ofthe market are new rules that have severely limited theability of many borrowers to get credit – excepting thosewith relatively high credit scores.

• TheMarkets: Beacon Economics has written repeatedlyin recent months that the markets have not gone into‘bubble’ mode. Valuations appear to make sense givenhigh corporate profits and low interest rates. So what ofthe recent swoon in prices? Not much there actually. Andthe rapid recovery in prices that has already occurred(as of this writing) back this up. But there is still causefor concern as the markets turned volatile for almost noreason and these episodes of volatility may becomeincreasingly frequent.

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California Economy

Over the past year, the Golden State has been one of the brightest spots in the national economy. June 2015 marked the 40th consecutive month that California has outpaced the U.S. overall in terms of nonfarm job growth. Real state GDP increased by 2.8% over the last year compared with 2.4% growth in the nation overall. With a 3.1% expansion through the mid-point of 2015, California’s labor market is growing half-again as fast as the nation’s as a whole.

Over the past 12 months California has been the 5th fastest growing state in the nation and the single largest source of new U.S. jobs, with more than 461,000 positions created as of June 2015.

San Francisco and San Jose continue to lead the pack in terms of employment gains. Both have averaged growth in excess of 4% so far this year. However, growth has not been limited to tech-heavy areas of the state. The Inland Empire has climbed to the #3 spot for growth, expanding its employment base by 3.6% over the last 12 months. The state’s Farm sector, which has been plagued by drought in recent years, is holding steady with no job losses as of July 2015 relative to the previous year.

Home sales are finally coming around as well. Through the first half of 2015, sales of existing single-family homes have climbed 9.8% more than at the same point in 2014. To date, nearly 170,000 homes have been sold in California.

Over the past five years California’s economy has made great strides in recovering from the recession. The growth and improvement, however, has not been evenly distributed across all segments of the economy. While California has created a significant number of both high-wage and lower wage positions, middle-income industries either remain well below their pre-recession levels or have yet to exhibit any significant growth since the downturn ended.

Over the past three years wage growth has been robust in high-wage sectors, but has been below average in lower wage industries including Construction, Logistics, Tourism, and Retail. This suggests that income inequality in the state will continue to worsen, which may lead to further political polarization in Sacramento and hinder the state’s ability to address long-term challenges.

Ongoing troubles abroad could also impact exports. Recent turmoil in Europe/Greece and the downgraded outlook for Chinese economic growth have reignited speculation about the likelihood of another recession in the near term. While Beacon Economics remains firmly in the “no recession on the horizon” camp, economic woes abroad could impact exports at California’s air and seaports.

Through July 2015, loaded containers for export at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach were down 12% over the same time last year. However, import traffic has held relatively steady, which will help to provide alternative demand for the state’s Logistics industry. Many of the goods shipped through California ports are produced out of state and brought in by truck or rail to access overseas markets. It isn’t clear whether slowing exports has broader implications for the state’s Agriculture or Manufacturing sectors.

Home prices also continue to outstrip income growth, which is concerning from a long-term standpoint. The state’s habitual under-building of new residential units has exacerbated the affordability problem over the past 30 years. Home building has simply not kept pace with population growth. Now that home prices are rising again, homes are affordable for a smaller and smaller share of Californians. But given the limited supply, this group still represents a large enough pool of buyers to maintain significant upward pressure on the state’s housing market.

The good news is that home prices, although growing, have yet to reach a level that Beacon Economics would characterize as a bubble. In fact, when taking historically low interest rates into account, financing the monthly payment for a median-priced home in the state requires just 26% of the state’s median income. At Beacon Economics, the running joke is that California is back down to historic levels of unaffordability.

In sum however, the good more than offsets the bad and California is expected to continue growing at a healthy pace into 2016 and beyond.

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There has been significant debate over California’s ongoing water shortage and its potential effect on the economy of Tulare County. Policies have been implemented across the County to reduce water usage, leading many local establishments to both cut their water use and simultaneously adopt new conservation technologies. Initially, reductions in water usage were expected to substantially reduce production in the agricultural industry.

However, recently, the Tulare County Agricultural Commissioner/Sealer released its Annual Crop and Livestock Report indicating that in 2014 there was a 10% increase in the total value of crops and livestock raised throughout the County over 2013.

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The report shows that changes in the types of products grown in 2014 helped the local agriculture sector collectively expand its production. The County’s agriculture industry produced more fruit and nut crops (380,619 harvested acres in 2014 versus 361,004 harvested acres in 2013), but less field crops (1.07 million harvested acres in 2014 versus 1.34 million harvested acres in 2013).

The value of some crops grown in Tulare County increased significantly in 2014. These crops include almonds, kiwis, lemons, oranges, peaches, pistachio nuts, tangerines, and walnuts. Conversely, the value of other crops grown in the County, including alfalfa, corn, silage of other small grains, wheat, cherries, and grapes (including raisins, wine grapes, and other varieties), fell significantly.

The local labor market in Tulare County continues to improve, much like in the rest of the surrounding Central Valley. Last year, the number of workers employed in the County surpassed pre-recession levels. Nonfarm employment reached 116,500 in June 2015, up 2.4% from one year prior, according to the California Employment Development Department (EDD) with seasonal adjustments estimated by Beacon Economics. Tulare County’s unemployment rate has also improved, falling to 11.5% in June 2015, from a peak of 17.6% in November 2010. This remains above pre-recession levels, but it is notable that the unemployment rate in this agriculture-heavy economy has been improving despite the ongoing water shortage throughout the state.

Another major factor in last year’s growth in total value is due to the increased value of livestock, poultry, and related products, including milk and cattle. The value of livestock, poultry, and related products grew by 26.8% over the year to reach more $3.6 billion in 2014. This is primarily due to increased prices, however. The price of milk produced in the County grew by 20% over 2014 and the price of cattle grew by 44%.

While the full effects of the water shortage have yet to materialize, for now it appears that the local agriculture industry has become more efficient and has an ability to utilize new technologies to overcome shortages in water. The future of Tulare County’s agriculture sector appears poised for long-term growth.

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Nonfarm Employment Unemployment Rate

Source: California Employment Development Department

Jan-07 to Jun-15Tulare County Labor Market

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1Luis Hernandez, “Planners to consider EIR for proposed cheese plant”, Visalia Times-Delta, July 16, 2015.

Consumer and Business Spending

Importantly, employment growth has occurred in many job sectors in across Tulare County. Employment at Natural Resources and Construction establishments is estimated to have grown by 19.7% from June 2014 to June 2015. While these figures are very high and may be revised downward by EDD, they nonetheless remain indicative of robust job growth in this sector. There has been a significant increase in the construction of residential units and nonresidential facilities in Tulare County over the last twelve months, many of which are energy-related.

The local Transport, Warehouse, and Utilities sector also expanded payrolls by 10.8% over the past year. The movement of goods, including agriculture, livestock, and processed foods, has been increasing throughout the state. California exports of these goods grew by 68% from 2009 to 2014, while total exports grew by 45%. And based on the first half of 2015, exports of agriculture, livestock, and processed foods throughout California are on pace for another solid year.

Demand for locally manufactured goods has also been increasing. As a result, the Tulare County Manufacturing sector experienced moderate employment gains over the past year, increasing its employment base by 2.2%. Increased demand for non-durable goods, including food processors, has been a catalyst for employment growth in this sector. Tulare County’s reputation as the largest dairy producer in the United States has led a well-known cheese producer, CaliCheese, to establish a processing facility in the County.1 The new CaliCheese local plant is expected to create 212 new jobs.

Employment  by  SectorTulare  County,  Seasonally  Adjusted

Sector Jun-­‐15 1-­‐Yr.  Chg.  (%)

3-­‐Yr.  Chg.  (%)

NR/Construction 5,350 19.7 29.0Transport,Warehouse,Util. 7,050 10.8 14.6Other  Services 3,600 5.4 15.3Government 30,050 4.5 -­‐1.2Leisure  and  Hospitality 10,550 2.5 11.1Manufacturing 12,250 2.2 9.0Education/Health 13,800 1.1 18.5Wholesale  Trade 3,850 -­‐0.3 5.5Professional/Business 8,950 -­‐2.7 -­‐10.2Financial  Activities 3,750 -­‐2.9 -­‐0.5Retail  Trade 16,450 -­‐3.2 5.8Information 850 -­‐10.3 -­‐0.1Total  Nonfarm 116,500 2.4 5.9Farm 33,600 0.3 -­‐0.1Source:  California  Employment  Development  Department

The Government sector also experienced a significant bump in employment over the past year. The sector grew its employment base by 4.5% to 30,050 jobs from June 2014 to June 2015, recovering a large portion of the positions lost over the last three years. Excluding jobs at public schools, employment in the Government sector has remained relatively stable. Employment at local public schools has been lower in recent years, however, the Visalia Unified School District is currently constructing a new middle school scheduled to open in 2016, which will provide a wide-range of new positions.

Despite positive employment gains in many key sectors, some industries in Tulare County have experienced significant negative employment growth over the past year. These sectors include Information (-10.3%), Retail Trade (-3.2%), Financial Activities (-2.9%), and Professional and Business Services (-2.7%). Looking longer term, employment in the Retail Trade sector has grown over the last three years, however employment in Professional and Business Services continues to trend negatively.

Overall, annual employment growth in Tulare County is on par with the rest of the Central Valley. Despite ongoing drought concerns, Farm sector employment has remained stable over the course of the year. The local job market is expected to become more accommodating to jobseekers as the economy continues to grow.

Consumer spending in Tulare County continues to climb steadily and is on par with the rest of the Central Valley. From the first quarter of 2014 to the first quarter of 2015, taxable sales in the County grew by 4.5% to nearly $1.6 billion, an all-time high.

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Tulare County Fresno CountyKings County Kern County

Source: California Board of Equalization

Selected Areas, Q1-2008 to Q1-2015Taxable Sales Growth

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Residential Real EstateSpending in the Automobiles and Transportation category continues to be the largest contributor to spending growth in Tulare County. Over the past year, sales tax receipts in this category grew by 16.4% to over $2 million, on a seasonally adjusted basis. Ramped up purchases of automobiles and other transportation-related items, such as recreational motorcycles and boats, and tractors, indicate growing consumer confidence as they represent relatively big ticket purchases.

With the labor markets continuing to improve, discretionary spending in Tulare County is beginning to show signs of strength. Spending in both the Restaurants and Hotels category (10.2%) and the General Consumer Goods category (6.4%) experienced robust growth over the last year.

Spending in the Fuel and Service Stations category declined steeply over the last year (-19.5%) due to falling oil and gasoline prices. Savings at the pump contributed to increased spending in other categories. This is good for the local economy because it allows consumers to purchase more locally produced goods and services; the majority of oil consumed locally is produced outside of the County.

Home prices in Tulare County remain affordable despite 14 consecutive quarters of price appreciation through the second quarter of 2015. From one year ago, the median home price of an existing single-family home in the County has expanded by 12.5%, to $178,000, far outpacing the 5.2% year-over-year growth rate in California as a whole. Improved economic conditions throughout Tulare County have made it an attractive migration destination for Central Valley residents.

Home sales also grew over the last year, another indication of increased demand for local real estate. The number of sales of existing single-family homes in Tulare County increased by nearly 12% over the last year and now stands well above the three-year average. The County’s recent home sales trends run counter to trends throughout the state, where sales remain largely suppressed. In Tulare County, home sales have increased despite a decline in the number of distressed properties available for sale. Approximately 14% of the County’s home sales in June 2015 were of distressed properties, compared to 21% in June 2014, according to the California Association of Realtors.

Sales  Tax  Receipts  by  CategoryTulare  County

Category Q1-­‐2015  ($  Thous.)

1-­‐Yr.  Chg.  (%)

3-­‐Yr.  Chg.  (%)

Autos  and  Transportation 2,039 16.4 38.6Building  and  Construction 990 10.4 22.6Restaurants  and  Hotels 1,228 10.2 20.7Business  and  Industry 3,744 6.8 28.6General  Consumer  Goods 3,218 6.4 14.1Food  and  Drugs 700 -­‐1.6 -­‐22.7Fuel  and  Service  Stations 1,776 -­‐19.5 -­‐14.4Total 15,764 5.1 16.1Source:  HdL  Companies

Looking further ahead into 2015, expect to see spending growth persist as incomes continue to grow throughout Tulare County. Total wages paid by establishments in the County grew by 5.0% in 2014, on top of a 4.2% annual growth rate the year before. Additionally, recent home price appreciation has given homeowners equity; enough so that many have refinanced their mortages with better terms to save on monthly bills. These trends will help drive local spending to new highs in the years to come.

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Tulare County, Q1-2010 to Q2-2015Median Price & Sales, Existing Single-Family Homes

The supply of distressed properties in Tulare County is projected to continue declining as more homeowners improve their financial positions. The number of default notices in the second quarter of 2015 was 23.1% lower than in the previous year, while foreclosure notices declined by 21.1% year-over-year. And with home prices steadily increasing, homeowners who were once in danger of defaulting on their mortgages have been able to recover much of their lost equity.

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Residential Real EstateSpending in the Automobiles and Transportation category continues to be the largest contributor to spending growth in Tulare County. Over the past year, sales tax receipts in this category grew by 16.4% to over $2 million, on a seasonally adjusted basis. Ramped up purchases of automobiles and other transportation-related items, such as recreational motorcycles and boats, and tractors, indicate growing consumer confidence as they represent relatively big ticket purchases.

With the labor markets continuing to improve, discretionary spending in Tulare County is beginning to show signs of strength. Spending in both the Restaurants and Hotels category (10.2%) and the General Consumer Goods category (6.4%) experienced robust growth over the last year.

Spending in the Fuel and Service Stations category declined steeply over the last year (-19.5%) due to falling oil and gasoline prices. Savings at the pump contributed to increased spending in other categories. This is good for the local economy because it allows consumers to purchase more locally produced goods and services; the majority of oil consumed locally is produced outside of the County.

Home prices in Tulare County remain affordable despite 14 consecutive quarters of price appreciation through the second quarter of 2015. From one year ago, the median home price of an existing single-family home in the County has expanded by 12.5%, to $178,000, far outpacing the 5.2% year-over-year growth rate in California as a whole. Improved economic conditions throughout Tulare County have made it an attractive migration destination for Central Valley residents.

Home sales also grew over the last year, another indication of increased demand for local real estate. The number of sales of existing single-family homes in Tulare County increased by nearly 12% over the last year and now stands well above the three-year average. The County’s recent home sales trends run counter to trends throughout the state, where sales remain largely suppressed. In Tulare County, home sales have increased despite a decline in the number of distressed properties available for sale. Approximately 14% of the County’s home sales in June 2015 were of distressed properties, compared to 21% in June 2014, according to the California Association of Realtors.

Sales  Tax  Receipts  by  CategoryTulare  County

Category Q1-­‐2015  ($  Thous.)

1-­‐Yr.  Chg.  (%)

3-­‐Yr.  Chg.  (%)

Autos  and  Transportation 2,039 16.4 38.6Building  and  Construction 990 10.4 22.6Restaurants  and  Hotels 1,228 10.2 20.7Business  and  Industry 3,744 6.8 28.6General  Consumer  Goods 3,218 6.4 14.1Food  and  Drugs 700 -­‐1.6 -­‐22.7Fuel  and  Service  Stations 1,776 -­‐19.5 -­‐14.4Total 15,764 5.1 16.1Source:  HdL  Companies

Looking further ahead into 2015, expect to see spending growth persist as incomes continue to grow throughout Tulare County. Total wages paid by establishments in the County grew by 5.0% in 2014, on top of a 4.2% annual growth rate the year before. Additionally, recent home price appreciation has given homeowners equity; enough so that many have refinanced their mortages with better terms to save on monthly bills. These trends will help drive local spending to new highs in the years to come.

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Tulare County, Q1-2010 to Q2-2015Median Price & Sales, Existing Single-Family Homes

The supply of distressed properties in Tulare County is projected to continue declining as more homeowners improve their financial positions. The number of default notices in the second quarter of 2015 was 23.1% lower than in the previous year, while foreclosure notices declined by 21.1% year-over-year. And with home prices steadily increasing, homeowners who were once in danger of defaulting on their mortgages have been able to recover much of their lost equity.

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The growing demand for single-family homes in Tulare County has spurred construction activity with developers ramping up homebuilding. In 2015, as of June, a total of 632 single-family units have been permitted in the County. This represents an increase of 40% over the same period in 2014.

Growth in demand for multifamily housing has not been as robust recently as growth in demand for single-family housing. Only 28 multifamily units have been permitted in Tulare County through the first six months of 2015, although construction activity was strong in 2014. Apartment rents grew by only 1.5% from the second quarter of 2014 to the second quarter of 2015 (in particular, rents grew for one-bedroom apartments). Meanwhile the apartment vacancy rate fell from 2.7% to 2.2% over the year.

Home affordability in Tulare County’s single-family market continues to grow relative to coastal areas, or even relative to locations several miles inland. Affordability concerns throughout California, especially among households that highly value homeownership, may drive more inter-state migration towards Tulare County.

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Tulare County, Q1-2010 to Q2-2015Defaults and Foreclosures

CrimeTulare County, like neighboring Fresno and Kern Counties, has struggled for years with crime rates that are above the state average. These crimes range from burglary and theft to serious violent crimes such as assault and homicide and drug-related offenses.

The number of violent crimes (defined as murder, forcible rape, robbery, or aggravated assault) reported in Tulare County remained elevated in 2013 (the most recent data available from the Federal Bureau of Investigation), while violent crimes throughout the state continued to decline. This situation is not unique to Tulare County. Kern and Fresno Counties have also seen violent crimes rise since 2007.

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Source: U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation

2004 to 2013Violent Crimes

Conversely, property-related crimes declined in 2013 in Tulare County, throughout the Central Valley, and throughout the state. Central Valley counties experienced particularly strong improvement. Property crimes reported in Tulare County decreased by 8% in 2013 and are nearly 30% lower than they were in 2004.

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2004 to 2013Property Crimes

Efforts to improve crime rates in Tulare County are currently being implemented and will help reduce crime activity over the long-term. The Sheriff Department’s operating budget for FY2013-14 was the highest in recent years, expanding by over 8% from the previous year.2 The Sheriff Department also announced earlier in the year that it intends to make a greater effort to utilize civilians where appropriate3 in addressing crime and improving safety in the County.

2Tulare County Sheriff’s Department, 2013-14 Annual Report3Kyle Valentine, “Civilians Hired for Positions Previously Held by Officers in Tulare County”, ABC 30 Action News, abc30.com/news/civilians-hired-for-positions-previously-held-by-officers-in-tulare-county/498319/, January29, 2015.

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