regional conservation progress review of regional savings from 2005 - 2009 september 21, 2010
TRANSCRIPT
Regional Conservation Progress Review of Regional Savings from
2005 - 2009
September 21, 2010
Reported Savings from Utility, Bonneville, NEEA and Energy Trust of Oregon
• Data From RTF Survey, Bonneville & NEEA Reports– Adjustments for
• Line losses• Duplication• Non-reporting utilities• 5th Power Plan “baselines”
• Total Regional Savings Are Larger– Today’s Report Does not yet include:
• Savings from Building Codes & Federal Standards enacted after 5th Plan was adopted
• Non-Programmatic Savings (Consumers who adopted efficiency measures, but did not participate in utility, BPA or ETO programs
• Plan’s Targets Include Savings From These Mechanisms
Regional Savings Far Exceeded 5th Plan’s 2009 Target
20090
50
100
150
200
250
150
219 5th Plan Target
Actual Savings
5th Plan’s Savings Targets Were Exceeded in Every Year
2005 2006 2007 2008 20090
50
100
150
200
250
300
135147
203
238219
130 135 140 145 150
Actual Savings 5th Plan Target
Annu
al M
Wa
We Vanquished the 5th Plan’s Five Year Conservation Target
1 2 3 4 50
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
135
282
485
723
942
Actual Savings Target
Cum
ulati
ve S
avin
gs (M
Wa)
Savings Met or Exceeded 5th Plans’ Targets in All Sectors But Agriculture
Ag/Irrigation/Other Commercial Industrial Residential0
100
200
300
400
500
600
50
225
175
250
25
252
173
491
2005-2009 Regional Target2005-2009 Regional Actual
Annu
al S
avin
gs (M
Wa)
1 2 3 4 50
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160Residential Savings 2005-2009
Residential CFLResidential OtherTarget - Residential
MW
aResidential Success Due to CFLs
Market Transformation Savings from CFL Tapering Off
But Residential Sector Targets Were Met Without CFL Savings
2005-2009 Regional Target 2005-2009 Regional Actual0
100
200
300
400
500
600
250286
205
Residential CFL SavingsResidential - Non CFL Savings
Annu
al S
avin
gs (M
Wa)
IOU Target IOU Actual POU Target POU Actual0
100
200
300
400
500
600
382
561
319379
All Sectors 2005-2009
MW
aBoth IOUs & POUs Exceeded Targets
IOUs Exceeding in All SectorsPOUs Exceeding in Res & Commercial
POU Industrial Expansion Launched 2010
Ag/Irrig
ation/Other
Commercial
Industrial
Residential
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
24
136
82
139
18
152122
269
IOU System by Sector
2005-2009 IOU Target
2005-2009 IOU Actual
Ann
ual S
avin
gs (M
Wa)
Ag/Irrig
ation/Other
Commercial
Industrial
Residential
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
26
89 93111
7
99
51
222
POU System by Sector
2005-2009 POU Target
2005-2009 POU Actual
Ann
ual S
avin
gs (M
Wa)
Average Utility Cost of All Efficiency Acquired Is Still Very Low Cost
$13/MWh*
2005 2006 2007 2008 20090
102030405060708090
100
Market Prices at Mid-C ($/MWh)Levelized Cost if EE ($/MWh)
$/M
Wh
(200
6$)
* Levelized Cost of 2005-2009 Efficiency @ 13-year measure life, Utility Cost Only
2005-2009 Efficiency Savings942 MWa
Energy savings equivalent to the annual output of a large nuclear power plant
Columbia Generating Station near Richland, WA
2005-2009 Efficiency Spending = $1 BillionSimilar to the cost of a large wind farm,
but produces five times the annual output
Biglow Canyon Wind Farm•217 turbines over 5 years•Cost about $1 billion•150 MWa annual energy output•Completed September 2010•Levelized cost about $100/MWh
New Nuclear Plant•Cost about $5.5 billion•900 MWa annual energy output•Levelized cost about $100/MWh•Not Available 2005-2009
Projected Lifecycle Regional Power Cost Savings from
2005-09 Conservation Accomplishments
*Present Value of 2005-2009 Conservation Savings Compared to SupplyingRegion with Equivalent Amount of Power from Wholesale Market PurchasesOver the Life of the Conservation Measures
$2.9 Billion*
Basis of the Estimated Regional Power Cost Savings from 2005-09 Conservation
• Conservation Cost = Annual Utility Reported Expenditures for Conservation 2005 – 2009 (all cost assumed to be expensed, i.e. recovered in rates during the same year as savings were achieved)
• Power Cost Savings:– Savings begin year following “installation” – 2005 – 2009 = Valued at actual average annual wholesale market
prices at Mid-C trading HUB– 2010 – 2022 = Valued at average 6th Plan’s medium annual wholesale
market price forecast.• Life of Conservation Savings = 13 years
– Assumed shorter than average measure life of all measures in 5th Plan (14 years) due to proportion of CFL savings
How Power Cost Savings Were EstimatedExample - 2005 Program Savings and Cost
-200
-100
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800Utility Cost of 2005 EE Savings
Savings from 2018
Savings from 2017
Savings from 2016
Savings from 2015
Savings from 2014
Savings from 2013
Savings from 2012
Savings from 2011
Savings from 2010
Savings from 2009
Savings from 2008
Savings from 2007
Savings from 2006
Cumulative Net Savings
Mill
ion
2006
$
Cost of 2005 Savings Fully Recovered by Avoided Market Purchases by 2008
2005-09 Conservation’s Impact on Regional Power System Revenue Requirements
2005 2009 2013 2017 2021 $-
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000 Cost of Energy Efficiency in Revenue Requirements (2006$)
Cost of Power Equilvalent to 2005 - 2009 Savings @ Mid-C Wholesale Prices
Ann
ual R
even
ue R
equi
rem
ent (
mill
ion
2006
$)
Present Value Savings = $2.9 Billion
Why are 2009 Savings Lower Than 2008?
2005 2006 2007 2008 20090
50
100
150
200
250Market Transformation Sav-ings (NEEA)
Annu
al S
avin
gs (M
Wa)
Three Years of Remarkable Residential Success2007-2009
2005 2006 2007 2008 20090
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
Total Regional Savings by Sector by Year
Target - Irrigated AgricultureActual - Irrigated AgricultureTarget - CommercialActual - CommercialTarget - IndustrialActual - IndustrialTarget - Residential Actual - Residential
MW
a
Utility Expenditures Are IncreasingCFLs Kept First-Year Cost Low 2007-2008
2005 2006 2007 2008 20090
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Annual Savings (MWa)
Annual EE Expenditures (2006$Million)
To The Region’s Utilities, Bonneville, Energy Trust of Oregon & NEEA
Congratulations!