regional climate services workshop 2011 university of victoria, canada, 21-23 november european...
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Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November
European Climate Data andInformation Productsfor Monitoring and Assessment Needs
Albert Klein Tank, KNMI, Netherlands
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Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November
Port of Rotterdam
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Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November
Port of Rotterdam
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Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November
Port of Rotterdam
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Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November
Port of Rotterdam
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Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November
North SeaStorm surge
Sea level rise
Port of Rotterdam
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Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November
River RhineFloods
North SeaStorm surge
Sea level rise
Port of Rotterdam
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Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November
February 1953
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Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November
Storm surge barrier “Maeslant” (1997)
Nowadays, the design criteria of Dutch Delta works are based on:
• historical observations(return periods of extremes and trends)
• projections of future climate
Port of Rotterdam
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Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November
Projections of future climate at regional scale
Ensemble of modelprojections available(GCMs + RCMs)
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Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November
Top-down approach
emission
climatesensitivity /
global warming
regional climate change
range of impacts
Schneider, 1983; Henderson-Sellers, 1993; Wilby and Dessai, 2010
Projections of future climate at regional scale
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Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November
Top-down approach Bottom-up approach
emission
climatesensitivity /
global warming
regional climate change
range of impacts
vulnerabilitynow
observedclimate var.& change
non-climaticpressures
adaptationoptions
climatechange
narratives
futurevulnerability
robustmeasures
socio-econ.scenarios
monito
ring
Schneider, 1983; Henderson-Sellers, 1993; Wilby and Dessai, 2010
Projections of future climate at regional scale
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Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November
• Regional information is more scattered; many different sources:
Historical observations
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Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November
• Regional information is more scattered; many different sources:
1) in-situ observations
2) satellite climate data records
3) (regional) reanalyses of past weather
Historical observations
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Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November
• Regional information is more scattered; many different sources:
1) in-situ observationslong-term records (50-100yr) but sparse
2) satellite climate data recordsspatially extensive but short (<30yr)
3) (regional) reanalyses of past weathercomplete but expensive and some bias
Historical observations
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Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November
In-situ observations of precipitation extremes
Source: ECA&Dhttp://eca.knmi.nl
Increase in precipitationfraction due to heavy events is seen in other regions too (IPCC-AR4)
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Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November
Reduction is inqualitative agreementwith model projectionsfor the 21st Centurye.g. Kharin et al.J.Climate, 2007
Van den Besselaar et al., Int.J.Climatol., submitted
In-situ observations of precipitation extremes
5-day extremesNorthern Europewinter (DJF)
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Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November
Satellite climate data records
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Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November
Decadal variability in solar energy potential
Subsequent periods of brightening, dimming, and brightening illustrated here with sunshine duration data from stations (Sanchez-Lorenzo, 2008)
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Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November
Decadal variability in solar energy potential
Subsequent periods of brightening, dimming, and brightening illustrated here with sunshine duration data from stations (Sanchez-Lorenzo, 2008)
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Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November
Reanalyses of past weather
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Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November
The 1894 stormin NW Europe
Reanalyses of past weather
included in the20th Century Reanalysis by Compo et al., Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2011
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Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November
L L
Compo et al., Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2011
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Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November
Climate Indicator Bulletins (CIBs)
• blend of data from stations, satellitesand reanalyses
• user-oriented
• focus on trends and variability in impact relevant indicators of climate extremes
Towards more integrated products for Europe
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Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November
ERA-InterimECMWF
MSUUAH
Courtesy: John Christy (top), Adrian Simmons (bottom)
In-situNOAA
Moscow heat wave, July 2010
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Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November
31 days withT-max > 25°C against 9.5 days in a normal July
Source: ECA&Dhttp://eca.knmi.nl
Moscow heat wave, July 2010
16 nights with T-min > 20°C against 0.5 night in a normal July
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Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November
• Interaction between providers and stakeholders helpsspecify the needs in more detail
• Important to discuss and communicate the uncertainties(due to emissions, model limitations, internal variability, observational gaps/changes and errors)
• Lesson learned: guidance information is crucial
Final remarks: user interaction
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Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November
http://www.euro4m.eu http://eca.knmi.nl
Thank you
http://climexp.knmi.nl