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Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November European Climate Data and Information Products for Monitoring and Assessment Needs Albert Klein Tank, KNMI, Netherlands

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Page 1: Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November European Climate Data and Information Products for Monitoring and

Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November

European Climate Data andInformation Productsfor Monitoring and Assessment Needs

Albert Klein Tank, KNMI, Netherlands

Page 2: Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November European Climate Data and Information Products for Monitoring and

Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November

Port of Rotterdam

Page 3: Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November European Climate Data and Information Products for Monitoring and

Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November

Port of Rotterdam

Page 4: Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November European Climate Data and Information Products for Monitoring and

Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November

Port of Rotterdam

Page 5: Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November European Climate Data and Information Products for Monitoring and

Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November

Port of Rotterdam

Page 6: Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November European Climate Data and Information Products for Monitoring and

Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November

North SeaStorm surge

Sea level rise

Port of Rotterdam

Page 7: Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November European Climate Data and Information Products for Monitoring and

Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November

River RhineFloods

North SeaStorm surge

Sea level rise

Port of Rotterdam

Page 8: Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November European Climate Data and Information Products for Monitoring and

Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November

February 1953

Page 9: Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November European Climate Data and Information Products for Monitoring and

Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November

Storm surge barrier “Maeslant” (1997)

Nowadays, the design criteria of Dutch Delta works are based on:

• historical observations(return periods of extremes and trends)

• projections of future climate

Port of Rotterdam

Page 10: Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November European Climate Data and Information Products for Monitoring and

Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November

Projections of future climate at regional scale

Ensemble of modelprojections available(GCMs + RCMs)

Page 11: Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November European Climate Data and Information Products for Monitoring and

Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November

Top-down approach

emission

climatesensitivity /

global warming

regional climate change

range of impacts

Schneider, 1983; Henderson-Sellers, 1993; Wilby and Dessai, 2010

Projections of future climate at regional scale

Page 12: Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November European Climate Data and Information Products for Monitoring and

Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November

Top-down approach Bottom-up approach

emission

climatesensitivity /

global warming

regional climate change

range of impacts

vulnerabilitynow

observedclimate var.& change

non-climaticpressures

adaptationoptions

climatechange

narratives

futurevulnerability

robustmeasures

socio-econ.scenarios

monito

ring

Schneider, 1983; Henderson-Sellers, 1993; Wilby and Dessai, 2010

Projections of future climate at regional scale

Page 13: Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November European Climate Data and Information Products for Monitoring and

Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November

• Regional information is more scattered; many different sources:

Historical observations

Page 14: Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November European Climate Data and Information Products for Monitoring and

Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November

• Regional information is more scattered; many different sources:

1) in-situ observations

2) satellite climate data records

3) (regional) reanalyses of past weather

Historical observations

Page 15: Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November European Climate Data and Information Products for Monitoring and

Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November

• Regional information is more scattered; many different sources:

1) in-situ observationslong-term records (50-100yr) but sparse

2) satellite climate data recordsspatially extensive but short (<30yr)

3) (regional) reanalyses of past weathercomplete but expensive and some bias

Historical observations

Page 16: Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November European Climate Data and Information Products for Monitoring and

Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November

In-situ observations of precipitation extremes

Source: ECA&Dhttp://eca.knmi.nl

Increase in precipitationfraction due to heavy events is seen in other regions too (IPCC-AR4)

Page 17: Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November European Climate Data and Information Products for Monitoring and

Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November

Reduction is inqualitative agreementwith model projectionsfor the 21st Centurye.g. Kharin et al.J.Climate, 2007

Van den Besselaar et al., Int.J.Climatol., submitted

In-situ observations of precipitation extremes

5-day extremesNorthern Europewinter (DJF)

Page 18: Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November European Climate Data and Information Products for Monitoring and

Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November

Satellite climate data records

Page 19: Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November European Climate Data and Information Products for Monitoring and

Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November

Decadal variability in solar energy potential

Subsequent periods of brightening, dimming, and brightening illustrated here with sunshine duration data from stations (Sanchez-Lorenzo, 2008)

Page 20: Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November European Climate Data and Information Products for Monitoring and

Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November

Decadal variability in solar energy potential

Subsequent periods of brightening, dimming, and brightening illustrated here with sunshine duration data from stations (Sanchez-Lorenzo, 2008)

Page 21: Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November European Climate Data and Information Products for Monitoring and

Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November

Reanalyses of past weather

Page 22: Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November European Climate Data and Information Products for Monitoring and

Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November

The 1894 stormin NW Europe

Reanalyses of past weather

included in the20th Century Reanalysis by Compo et al., Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2011

Page 23: Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November European Climate Data and Information Products for Monitoring and

Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November

L L

Compo et al., Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2011

Page 24: Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November European Climate Data and Information Products for Monitoring and

Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November

Climate Indicator Bulletins (CIBs)

• blend of data from stations, satellitesand reanalyses

• user-oriented

• focus on trends and variability in impact relevant indicators of climate extremes

Towards more integrated products for Europe

Page 25: Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November European Climate Data and Information Products for Monitoring and

Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November

ERA-InterimECMWF

MSUUAH

Courtesy: John Christy (top), Adrian Simmons (bottom)

In-situNOAA

Moscow heat wave, July 2010

Page 26: Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November European Climate Data and Information Products for Monitoring and

Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November

31 days withT-max > 25°C against 9.5 days in a normal July

Source: ECA&Dhttp://eca.knmi.nl

Moscow heat wave, July 2010

16 nights with T-min > 20°C against 0.5 night in a normal July

Page 27: Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November European Climate Data and Information Products for Monitoring and

Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November

• Interaction between providers and stakeholders helpsspecify the needs in more detail

• Important to discuss and communicate the uncertainties(due to emissions, model limitations, internal variability, observational gaps/changes and errors)

• Lesson learned: guidance information is crucial

Final remarks: user interaction

Page 28: Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011 University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November European Climate Data and Information Products for Monitoring and

Regional Climate Services Workshop 2011University of Victoria, Canada, 21-23 November

http://www.euro4m.eu http://eca.knmi.nl

Thank you

http://climexp.knmi.nl