regional background ozone in texas: recent research and future needs

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Regional background ozone in Texas: Recent research and future needs Air Quality Division Mark Estes a , Shaena Berlin b , Andrew Langford c , Melody Dong d , Jim Smith a , Fernando Mercado a , David Parrish c Presented to AQAST Meeting, Rice University January 16, 2014 a. Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, Austin, TX b. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA c. NOAA ESRL Chemical Sciences Division, Boulder, CO d. Dept. of Bioengineering, University of California, San Diego

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Regional background ozone in Texas: Recent research and future needs. Mark Estes a , Shaena Berlin b , Andrew Langford c , Melody Dong d , Jim Smith a , Fernando Mercado a , David Parrish c Presented to AQAST Meeting, Rice University January 16, 2014. - PowerPoint PPT Presentation

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Page 1: Regional background ozone in Texas:  Recent research and future needs

Regional background ozone in Texas: Recent research

and future needs

Air Quality Division

Mark Estesa, Shaena Berlinb, Andrew Langfordc, Melody Dongd, Jim Smitha, Fernando Mercadoa,

David Parrishc

Presented to AQAST Meeting, Rice UniversityJanuary 16, 2014

a. Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, Austin, TXb. Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MAc. NOAA ESRL Chemical Sciences Division, Boulder, COd. Dept. of Bioengineering, University of California, San Diego

Page 2: Regional background ozone in Texas:  Recent research and future needs

Air Quality Division • Trends in background ozone • MJE • January 16, 2014 • Page 2

Introduction

• Measured background ozone trend on US west coast is upward; linked to increasing Asian emissions (Jacob et al. 1999; Jaffe et al. 1999, 2003; Cooper et al. 2010, 2012; Parrish et al. 2009; Reidmiller 2009; Brown-Steiner and Hess 2011; Lin et al. 2012; Zhang et al. 2008, 2011; Widger et al. 2013; Pfister et al. 2013)

• Question: What is the regional background ozone trend in HGB and DFW? What factors affect background ozone in the eastern half of Texas?

Page 3: Regional background ozone in Texas:  Recent research and future needs

Air Quality Division • Trends in background ozone • MJE • January 16, 2014 • Page 3

Outline

• Two methods for estimating background ozone in Houston, PCA and upwind-downwind: Berlin, S., A. Langford, M. Estes, M. Dong, and D. Parrish (2013), Magnitude, decadal changes and impact of regional background ozone transported into the greater Houston, Texas area, Environ. Sci. Technol., 2013, 47 (24), pp 13985–13992, DOI: 10.1021/es4037644

• Seasonal variations in background ozone• Transport effects upon background ozone • Trends in regional background ozone• Both Houston-Galveston and Dallas-Fort

Worth

Page 4: Regional background ozone in Texas:  Recent research and future needs

Air Quality Division • Trends in background ozone • MJE • January 16, 2014 • Page 4

Definition of regional background ozone

• For these analyses, regional background ozone is the ozone transported into the area such that local emissions have little influence upon the ozone concentrations.

• Generally not equivalent to “natural background” or “policy-relevant background.”

Page 5: Regional background ozone in Texas:  Recent research and future needs

Air Quality Division • Trends in background ozone • MJE • January 16, 2014 • Page 5

Sites outside the red boundary are able to measure background ozone reliably; sites inside often do not, due to influence from local sources.

Page 6: Regional background ozone in Texas:  Recent research and future needs

Air Quality Division • Trends in background ozone • MJE • January 16, 2014 • Page 6

Estimated HGB background ozone for every day from April 1, 2000 to October 31, 2012

Median background ozone: 30 ppbvMean: 32.6 ppbv95th percentile: 58 ppbvClearly, there are systematic variations in background ozone during the ozone season.

Page 7: Regional background ozone in Texas:  Recent research and future needs

Air Quality Division • Trends in background ozone • MJE • January 16, 2014 • Page 7

Peak and background ozone are correlated, though correlation is not causation. Conditions suitable for high background are also suitable for high local production (i.e., clear skies, light winds, high temperatures).

Page 8: Regional background ozone in Texas:  Recent research and future needs

Air Quality Division • Trends in background ozone • MJE • January 16, 2014 • Page 8

Background ozone drops during mid-summer due to transport from the Gulf (Davis et al. 1998; Chan and Vet, 2010; Smith et al. 2013).

Page 9: Regional background ozone in Texas:  Recent research and future needs

Air Quality Division • Trends in background ozone • MJE • January 16, 2014 • Page 9

Highest concentrations linked to continental flow

Intermediate concentrations linked to coastal flow

Lowest concentrations linked to Gulf of Mexico flow

Page 10: Regional background ozone in Texas:  Recent research and future needs

Air Quality Division • Trends in background ozone • MJE • January 16, 2014 • Page 10

95th background: -0.58 ± 0.19 ppbv/yr (p = 0.011)50th background: -0.071 ± 0.25 ppbv/yr (p = 0.78)Flat or downward trend consistent with Cooper (2012), Oltmans (2012), Parrish (2012), and Lefohn (2010, 2013).

Page 11: Regional background ozone in Texas:  Recent research and future needs

Air Quality Division • Trends in background ozone • MJE • January 16, 2014 • Page 11

Estimated DFW background ozone for every day from April 1, 2001 to October 31, 2012

DFW Median background ozone: 41 ppbvMean: 41.3 ppbv95th percentile: 63 ppbv

HGB Median background ozone: 30 ppbvMean: 32.6 ppbv95th percentile: 58 ppbv

Page 12: Regional background ozone in Texas:  Recent research and future needs

Air Quality Division • Trends in background ozone • MJE • January 16, 2014 • Page 12

Mean background is almost constant during ozone season; mean local contribution peaks in early August

Page 13: Regional background ozone in Texas:  Recent research and future needs

Air Quality Division • Trends in background ozone • MJE • January 16, 2014 • Page 13

Flow from DFW gives high ozone.

Flow from south gives lower ozone, but not as low as HGB.

Flow from E and NE gives high ozone, like HGB, but with somewhat different source regions.

Page 14: Regional background ozone in Texas:  Recent research and future needs

Air Quality Division • Trends in background ozone • MJE • January 16, 2014 • Page 14

Slope of annual median concentration is not significant (p = 0.39); slope of annual 95th percentile concentration is significant (p = 0.038).

Page 15: Regional background ozone in Texas:  Recent research and future needs

Air Quality Division • Trends in background ozone • MJE • January 16, 2014 • Page 15

Conclusions

• Regional background ozone concentration trends are flat or decreasing in both HGB and DFW. The increase observed on the US west coast due to Asian emissions is not apparent in eastern Texas.

• In both cities, background ozone varies with transport pattern, especially in Houston. In Houston, background ozone trends vary with transport direction, with flow from the Gulf of Mexico having zero trend, and flow from continental US having a downward trend (Berlin et al. 2013).

• Regional background ozone in DFW is on average higher than in HGB.

• Peak daily 8-hour ozone concentrations in Houston and DFW are positively correlated with regional background ozone.

• In Houston, background and local ozone vary with season; highest total ozone tends to occur when both peak. In DFW, background ozone is nearly constant; local contribution and total ozone peak in early August.

• Analyses imply that much of the seasonal ozone variation is contributed by large-scale spatial and temporal patterns.

Page 16: Regional background ozone in Texas:  Recent research and future needs

Air Quality Division • Trends in background ozone • MJE • January 16, 2014 • Page 16

Future needs

• This analysis focuses upon averages, not case studies or exceptional events. Studies of days with high regional background ozone and/or high local ozone production would be useful.

• Quantifying sources of regional background ozone: within Texas, within US, outside US, natural and anthropogenic. Quantifying the effects of changes in precursor emissions. Quantifying the effects of different meteorological patterns.

• Improved modeling of regional background ozone, both over ocean and over land—in general, models are overpredicting background ozone.

Page 17: Regional background ozone in Texas:  Recent research and future needs

Air Quality Division • Trends in background ozone • MJE • January 16, 2014 • Page 17

Contact information

[email protected]• (512) 239-6049

Page 18: Regional background ozone in Texas:  Recent research and future needs

Air Quality Division • Trends in background ozone • MJE • January 16, 2014 • Page 18

Additional slides

Page 19: Regional background ozone in Texas:  Recent research and future needs

Method details: Background ozone estimation at upwind sites

• Select sites in the Houston area that are capable of measuring background ozone, given the proper conditions. These sites are not located near large emission sources

• Calculate peak daily 8-hour ozone for each site.• Select the minimum peak daily 8-hour ozone from

the subset of background sites.• Ozone season defined as April 1 – Oct 31. • Number of sites selected varied from 6 to 19,

greatly increasing after 2002.

Page 20: Regional background ozone in Texas:  Recent research and future needs

Air Quality Division • Trends in background ozone • MJE • January 16, 2014 • Page 20*2013 DV not finalized

85 ppbv NAAQS

75 ppbv NAAQS

Page 21: Regional background ozone in Texas:  Recent research and future needs

Air Quality Division • Trends in background ozone • MJE • January 16, 2014 • Page 21

95th MDA8: -2.33 ± 0.40 ppbv/yr, p = 0.0001250th MDA8: -0.64 ± 0.33 ppbv/yr, p = 0.077

Page 22: Regional background ozone in Texas:  Recent research and future needs

Air Quality Division • Trends in background ozone • MJE • January 16, 2014 • Page 22

95th local: -1.76 ± 0.26 ppbv/yr, p = 0.00002950th local: -0.60 ± 0.18 ppbv/yr, p = 0.0062

Page 23: Regional background ozone in Texas:  Recent research and future needs

Air Quality Division • Trends in background ozone • MJE • January 16, 2014 • Page 23

(a) Trends in the highest MDA8 O3 reported by one of the 6 CAMS stations used in the PCA analysis (Max 6 CAMS) and by all HGB CAMS (Max HGB). The number of ozone exceedance days (2008 NAAQS) at the 6 CAMS stations is also shown.

(b) and (c) Trends in mean MDA8 ozone and background and local contributions from the 6-station PCA and the TCEQ methods, respectively. The solid lines indicate the linear least-squares fits; the parameters of the fits with 95% confidence intervals are annotated.

Page 24: Regional background ozone in Texas:  Recent research and future needs

Air Quality Division • Trends in background ozone • MJE • January 16, 2014 • Page 24

Slope of annual median peak ozone is not significant (p = 0.57); slope of annual 95th percentile peak ozone is significant (p = 0.0062), as is the slope of annual maximum peak ozone (p = 0.0054).

Page 25: Regional background ozone in Texas:  Recent research and future needs

Air Quality Division • Trends in background ozone • MJE • January 16, 2014 • Page 25

Page 26: Regional background ozone in Texas:  Recent research and future needs

Air Quality Division • Trends in background ozone • MJE • January 16, 2014 • Page 26

References• Brown-Steiner, B., and P. Hess (2011), Asian influence on surface ozone in the United

States: A comparison of chemistry, seasonality, and transport mechanisms, J. Geophys. Res., 116, D17309, doi:10.1029/2011JD015846.

• Chan, E., and R. J. Vet (2010), Baseline levels and trends of ground level ozone in Canada and the United States, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 10, 8629–8647, doi:10.5194/acp-10-8629-2010.

• Cooper, O. R., R.-S. Gao, D. Tarasick, T. Leblanc, and C. Sweeney (2012), Long-term ozone trends at rural ozone monitoring sites across the United States, 1990–2010, J. Geophys. Res., 117, D22307, doi:10.1029/2012JD018261.

• Cooper, O.R. et al. (2010), Increasing springtime ozone mixing ratios in the free troposphere over western North America, Nature, 463, doi:10.1038/nature08708.

• Davis et al. (1998), Modeling the effects of meteorology on ozone in Houston using cluster analysis and generalized additive models, Atmos. Environ., 32(14-15):2505-2520.

• Fiore, A., D. J. Jacob, H. Liu, R. M. Yantosca, T. D. Fairlie, and Q. Li, (2003), Variability in surface ozone background over the United States: Implications for air quality policy, J. Geophys. Res., 108(D24), 4787, doi:10.1029/2003JD003855.

• Hudman, R. C., et al. (2004), Ozone production in transpacific Asian pollution plumes and implications for ozone air quality in California, J. Geophys. Res., 109, D23S10, doi:10.1029/2004JD004974.

• Jacob et al. (1999). Effect of rising Asian emissions on surface ozone in the United States. Geophys. Res. Lett., 26(14): 2175-2178.

• Jaffe et al. (1999). Transport of Asian air pollution to North America. Geophys. Res. Lett. 26(6): 711-714.

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References• Jaffe et al. (2003). Increasing background ozone in the spring on the west coast of

North America. Geophys. Res. Lett. 30 (12): 1613, doi:10.1029/2003GL017024. • Kemball-Cook, S., D. Parrish, T. Ryerson, U. Nopmongcol, J. Johnson, E. Tai, and G.

Yarwood (2009), Contributions of regional transport and local sources to ozone exceedances in Houston and Dallas: Comparison of results from a photochemical grid model to aircraft and surface measurements, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D00F02, doi:10.1029/2008JD010248.

• Langford, A. O., C. J. Senff, R. M. Banta, R. M. Hardesty, R. J. Alvarez II, S. P. Sandberg, and L. S. Darby (2009), Regional and local background ozone in Houston during Texas Air Quality Study 2006, J. Geophys. Res., 114, D00F12, doi:10.1029/2008JD011687.

• Lefohn, A.S., Emery, C., Shadwick, D., Wernli, H., Jung, J., Oltmans, S.J., Estimates of Background Surface Ozone Concentrations in the United States Based on Model-Derived Source Apportionment, Atmos. Environ. (2013), doi: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2013.11.033.

• Lefohn A.S., et al. (2008), Characterizing long-term changes in surface ozone levels in the United States (1080-2005), Atmos. Environ., 42: 8252-8262, doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2008.07.060.

• Nielsen-Gammon et al., 2005. A conceptual model for eight hour ozone exceedances in Houston, Texas, Part 1: Background ozone levels in eastern Texas. HARC/TERC/TCEQ report, project H12.2004.8HRA. January 29, 2005.

• Oltmans, S.J., Lefohn, A.S., Shadwick, D., Harris, J.M., Scheel, H.E., Galbally, I., Tarasick, D.W., Johnson, B.J., Brunke, E.-G., Claude, H., Zeng, G., Nichol, S., Schmidlin, F., Davies, J., Cuevas, E., Redondas, A., Naoe, H., Nakano, T., Kawasato, T., (2012), Recent Tropospheric Ozone Changes – A Pattern Dominated by Slow or No Growth, Atmos. Environ. (2012), doi: 10.1016/j.atmosenv.2012.10.057.

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References• Oltmans, Samuel J., Allen S. Lefohn, Joyce M. Harris and Douglas S. Shadwick, (2008),

Background ozone levels of air entering the west coast of the U.S. and assessment of longer-term changes, Atmospheric Environment (2008), doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2008.03.034.

• Parrish, D.D., D. B. Millet, and A.H. Goldstein, 2009, Increasing ozone in marine boundary layer inflow at the west coasts of North America and Europe, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 9: 1303-1323, www.atmos-chem-phys.net/9/1303/2009/.

• Parrish, D. D., et al. (2012), Long-term changes in lower tropospheric baseline ozone concentrations at northern mid-latitudes, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 12, 11,485-11,504, doi:10.5194/acp-12-11485-2012.

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• Zhang et al., 2008, Transpacific transport of ozone pollution and the effect of recent Asian emission increases on air quality in North America: an integrated analysis using satellite, aircraft, ozonesonde, and surface observations, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 8:6117-6136, 2008.

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