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Reference Materials Reference Materials COAL INDUSTRY OVERVIEW COAL INDUSTRY OVERVIEW May 2013 May 2013

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Page 1: Reference Materials COAL INDUSTRY OVERVIEW 201305 · 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Central and South America Africa Middle East Russia/ Eastern Europe Europe North America Other

Reference MaterialsReference Materials

COAL INDUSTRY OVERVIEWCOAL INDUSTRY OVERVIEW

May 2013May 2013

Page 2: Reference Materials COAL INDUSTRY OVERVIEW 201305 · 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Central and South America Africa Middle East Russia/ Eastern Europe Europe North America Other

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■ Global Energy Resource Reserves -----------------------------------------------3

■ Global Energy Resource Supply ---------------------------------------------------4World Total Primary Energy Supply Shares, World Total Fuel Shares of Electricity Generation

■ Global Coal Consumption Outlook ------------------------------------------------5Global Coal Consumption Outlook, Coal Shares of Power Generation in Major Countries

■ Global Coal Reserves ----------------------------------------------------------------6

■ World Coal Trade ---------------------------------------------------------------------7

■ World Coal Exporters and Importers ----------------------------------------------8

■ Trends in Coal Exports and Imports by Major Countries ---------------------9

■ Coal Consumption in Japan --------------------------------------------------------10Coal Consumption by Industry, Total Electricity Generation and Generation by Fuel Type

■ Trends in Domestic and Imported Coal in Japan and Import Sources ---11Volume of Domestic and Imported Coal Supply, Japan’s Coal Import Sources

■ Australian Coal Prices 1: Annual ---------------------------------------------------12

■ Australian Coal Prices 2: Quarterly ------------------------------------------------13

Table of ContentsTable of Contents

Page 3: Reference Materials COAL INDUSTRY OVERVIEW 201305 · 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Central and South America Africa Middle East Russia/ Eastern Europe Europe North America Other

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51.3 Years114.9 Years59.5 Years42.8 YearsLife of Reserves (R/P)

53,700 Tonnes

6.341 Billion Tonnes

3.24 Trillion m3

3.94 Billion Tonnes

Annual Production(P)

15.216.832.910.2CIS

6.34.27.610.4Africa

51.043.38.43.6Asia-Pacific

1.60.239.562.2Middle East

0.72.52.71.3Europe

8.61.33.88.5Central and South America

16.5 %31.8 %5.6 %3.7%North America

Reserve status by region

2.755 Million Tonnes

728 Billion Tonnes

192 Trillion m3

169 Billion Tonnes

Reserves (R)

UraniumCoalNatural GasCrude OilWorldwide Data as of 2010Worldwide Data as of 2010

Source:BGR Reserves, Resources and Availability of Energy Resources 2011

Global Energy Resources ReservesGlobal Energy Resources Reserves

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Global Energy Resource SupplyGlobal Energy Resource Supply

Source:IEA Key World Energy Statistics 2012 Source:IEA Key World Energy Statistics 2012

*Others include Geothermal, Solar, Wind Power etc. **Others include Geothermal, Solar, Wind Power, Biofuels, Renewable Energy etc.

Coal Coal 27.3%27.3%

Oil Oil 32.4%32.4%

LNGLNG21.4%21.4%

NuclearNuclear 5.7%5.7%

Hydro 2.3%Hydro 2.3%

Combustible Combustible RenewablesRenewablesand Wasteand Waste 10.0%10.0% Others*Others*

0.9%0.9%

World Total Fuel Shares of World Total Fuel Shares of Electricity Generation 2010Electricity Generation 2010

Coal Coal 40.6%40.6%

OilOil4.6%4.6%

LNGLNG22.2%22.2%

NuclearNuclear12.9%12.9%

HydroHydro16.0%16.0%

Others**Others**3.7%3.7%

World Total Primary Energy Supply World Total Primary Energy Supply 20102010

Page 5: Reference Materials COAL INDUSTRY OVERVIEW 201305 · 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Central and South America Africa Middle East Russia/ Eastern Europe Europe North America Other

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16%

27%

44%

46%

68%

78%

0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%

China

India

US

Germany

Japan

Russia

Source:EIA International Energy Outlook2011 Source:IEA Key World Energy Statistics 2012

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035

Central andSouth America

Africa

Middle East

Russia/ EasternEurope

Europe

North America

Other Asia

Australia/NZ

South Korea

Japan

India

China

Million Tons

Year

TOTAL TOTAL 6,1196,119

7,4747,4747,8707,870

8,2358,235

8,9908,990

9,7419,741

10,46110,461

Global Coal Consumption OutlookGlobal Coal Consumption Outlook Coal Shares of Electricity Generation Coal Shares of Electricity Generation in Selected Countries 2010in Selected Countries 2010

Global Coal Consumption OutlookGlobal Coal Consumption Outlook

Page 6: Reference Materials COAL INDUSTRY OVERVIEW 201305 · 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Central and South America Africa Middle East Russia/ Eastern Europe Europe North America Other

66Source:BGR Reserves, Resources and Availability of Energy Resources 2011

US US (Total 2,566)(Total 2,566) 2,258

308

SubSub--bituminous and bituminous and Brown CoalBrown Coal

(100Million (100Million tonnestonnes))

Anthracite and Anthracite and Bituminous coalBituminous coal

(100 Million (100 Million tonnestonnes))Data in 2011Data in 2011

CanadaCanada(Total 66)(Total 66)

4322

ColombiaColombia 49

Other Latin American Other Latin American CountriesCountries(Total 93)(Total 93)

4951

RussiaRussia(Total 1,600)(Total 1,600)

687914

ChinaChina(Total 1,916)(Total 1,916)

1,806

110

IndonesiaIndonesia(Total 172)(Total 172)

9378

Other Other Asia/OceaniaAsia/Oceania(Total 1,168)(Total 1,168)911

256

AustraliaAustralia(Total 809)(Total 809)

438371

India India (Total 795)(Total 795)

49

746

EuropeEurope(Total 880)(Total 880)

180

700

South AfricaSouth Africa

280

23

Other African Other African countriescountries

Global Coal ReservesGlobal Coal Reserves

Page 7: Reference Materials COAL INDUSTRY OVERVIEW 201305 · 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Central and South America Africa Middle East Russia/ Eastern Europe Europe North America Other

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World Coal TradeWorld Coal Trade

Japan imports coal approximately 180 million tonnes annually which is 16% of the world coal trade, 1,100 million tonnes.

Source:IEA Coal Information 2012

Data in 2011(Million tonnes):Red- increased, Blue- decreased from 2010

Other European countries

49.623.8

7.959.0

Asia (Import includes China)

574.0

7.9

8.2

18.4

North America

28.7

Latin America

35.3

9.6

4.6

(to OECD Europe)

(to OECD Europe)38.8

5.3

51.3

13.9

Africa / Middle East

23.8

1.5

Canada32.1

2.5

18.9

7.4

10.6

4.4

28.2

OECD Europe231.2

(to Other European countries)7.4

3.7(from US)

1.7

1.9

5.3

14.6 (to Asia and China)

0.7

3.4

7.3

(to Africa and Middle East)

262.7

10.8

37.9

10.1

51.3

38.8

5.3

Japan175.4

11.9

1.9

8.1

0.9

0.6

109.7

(to North America)

1.1

1.1 (from South Africa)

(from South Africa)

145.7

China (Export)

12.7

(to Latin America)

18.2

Australia283.4

Russia 117.3

Poland8.1

3.7

US93.9

9.2

1.2(to Other Europe)

1.2

Colombia89.0

(from US)

(from Colombia)

(from Canada)

(from Colombia)

(from US)

33.7

0.97.8(to Africa and

Middle East)

7.8From Colombia)

Kazakhstan24.4

0.6

2.9

0.9(to Other European countries)

(from Indonesia)(to Latin America)

1.2

(from Russia)

1.2(to Japan)

0.7

(from South Africa)

South Africa67.3

Indonesia309.0

(to OECD Europe)

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US8%

Others*9%China

2% Indonesia26%

Australia25%Russia

11%

Colombia7%

South Africa6%

Canada3%

Kazakhstan3%

India10%

Others**30%

Russia2%

UK3%

Germany4%

Taiwan6%

South Korea12%

Japan16%

China17%

Source : IEA Coal Information 2012

World Total Coal World Total Coal Export 2011Export 2011

1,141.98 1,141.98 million million tonnestonnes

World Total Coal World Total Coal Import 2011Import 2011

1,102.411,102.41million million tonnestonnes

*Others includes Poland, Venezuela, Ukraine, India etc.*Others includes Poland, Venezuela, Ukraine, India etc. **Others includes Belgium, France, Spain, US, Canada etc.**Others includes Belgium, France, Spain, US, Canada etc.

Coal ExportersCoal Exporters Coal ImportersCoal Importers

World Coal Exporters and ImportersWorld Coal Exporters and Importers

Page 9: Reference Materials COAL INDUSTRY OVERVIEW 201305 · 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Central and South America Africa Middle East Russia/ Eastern Europe Europe North America Other

99Source:IEA Coal Information 2012

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011e

Japan(import) South Korea(import) China(import) India(import) Taiwan(import)

Australia(export) Indonesia(export) US(export) China(export)(Million tonnes)

(Year)

Trends in Coal Exports and Imports of Selected Trends in Coal Exports and Imports of Selected CountriesCountries

Page 10: Reference Materials COAL INDUSTRY OVERVIEW 201305 · 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Central and South America Africa Middle East Russia/ Eastern Europe Europe North America Other

1010

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

1985 1995 20050

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Total Coal Sales(left axis) Cokes(right axis)Ceramic, stone,clay(right axis) Steel(right axis)Electricity(right axis)

Source:IEA World Energy Outlook 2012Source: Agency of Natural Resources and Energy,2012 Annual Report on Energy

(Million tonnes)

(Year)

Coal Consumption by IndustryCoal Consumption by Industry Total Electric Generation and Shares Total Electric Generation and Shares of Generating Sourcesof Generating Sources

Coal Consumption in JapanCoal Consumption in Japan

(Million tonnes)

14.6%

27.6% 25.7%

29.2%8.1%

10.7%

4.2%

19.2%24.3%

32.4%

29.1%

30.4% 33.6%16.8%

28.7%

30.2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1990 2010 2015f 2020f0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

Coal OilLNG NuclearHydro OthersTotal Electricity Generation(right axis)

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China 2%

US 4%

Others1%

Canada 5%

Russia 7%

Indonesia19%

Australia62%

020406080

100120140160180200

1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2011 (Year)

(Miliion tonnes)

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%100%

Import Ratio (%)

Trends in Domestic / Imported Coal and Import Trends in Domestic / Imported Coal and Import SourcesSources

Source: Agency for Natural Resources and Energy,2012 Annual Report on Energy

■ 99.4% of coal being supplied in Japan is imported.

■ 62% of total import (175 million tonnes) is from Australia.

Volumes of Domestic and Volumes of Domestic and Imported Coal SupplyImported Coal Supply JapanJapan’’s Coal Import Sourcess Coal Import Sources

Imported Imported coalcoal

Domestic Domestic productionproduction

Page 12: Reference Materials COAL INDUSTRY OVERVIEW 201305 · 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Central and South America Africa Middle East Russia/ Eastern Europe Europe North America Other

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330.00

29.50

79.50

240.00254.10

125.00

172.00

300.00

125.00

39.80

121.00

95.00

129.85

52.5028.75

0.00

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

300.00

350.00

Hard Coking Coal(Steel material) 39.80 42.79 46.00 44.00 57.00 125.00 115.00 98.00 300.00 129.00 200.00 330.00 206 172.00

Semi-soft Coking Coal(Steel material) 29.50 35.40 31.92 29.92 42.00 79.50 58.00 63.90 240.00 81.00 167.00 254.10 147.00 121.00

Thermal Coal(Electricity and general industry) 28.75 34.50 31.85 26.75 45.00 52.50 52.50 55.50 125.00 70.50 97.75 129.85 115.00 95.00

FY2000 FY2001 FY2002 FY2003 FY2004 FY2005 FY2006 FY2007 FY2008 FY2009 FY2010 Q1 FY2011 Q1 FY2012 Q1 FY2013 Q1

206-210

*See the next page

Australian Coal Price Chart 1 : AnnualAustralian Coal Price Chart 1 : Annual

Price (US$/Mt)

(Mitsui Matsushima Co. Ltd. Research)

*Thermal Coal prices are fixed ones in April of each year.

Page 13: Reference Materials COAL INDUSTRY OVERVIEW 201305 · 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Central and South America Africa Middle East Russia/ Eastern Europe Europe North America Other

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206.00

254.10

172.00

200.00

330.00

121.00

147.00167.00

95.00

115.00

129.85

97.75

0.00

50.00

100.00

150.00

200.00

250.00

300.00

350.00

Hard Coking Coal(Steel material) 200.00 225.00 209.00 225.00 330.00 315.00 285.00 235.00 206.00 225.00 170.00 165.00 172.00

Semi-soft Coking Coal(Steel material) 167.00 172.00 143.00 180.00 254.10 212.00 179.00 145.00 147.00 147.00 117.00 117.00 121.00

Thermal Coal(Electricity and general industry) 97.75 97.75 97.75 97.75 129.85 129.85 129.85 129.85 115.00 115.00 115.00 115.00 95.00

FY2010 Q1 FY2010 Q2 FY2010 Q3 FY2010 Q4 FY2011 Q1 FY2011 Q2 FY2011 Q3 FY2011 Q4 FY2012 Q1 FY2012 Q2 FY2012 Q3 FY2012 Q4 FY2013 Q1

254.1-264.0 212-242.55 179.0 -182.0 145.0-179.0

206.0-210.0

Price (US$/Mt)

Australian Coal Price Chart 2 : QuarterlyAustralian Coal Price Chart 2 : Quarterly

(Mitsui Matsushima Co. Ltd. Research)

*Thermal Coal prices are fixed ones in April of each year.

Page 14: Reference Materials COAL INDUSTRY OVERVIEW 201305 · 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 Central and South America Africa Middle East Russia/ Eastern Europe Europe North America Other

1414

Source publication list

●IEA International Energy Agency

Coal Information 2012 (published in Nov. 2012)

Key World Energy STATISTICS 2012 (published in Nov.2012)

World Energy Outlook2012 (published in Nov. 2012)

●EIA U.S. Energy Information Administration

International Energy Outlook2011 (published in Sep. 2011)

●BGR Federal Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources

Reserves, Resources and Availability of Energy Resources 2011 (published in Jun. 2011)

●Agency for Natural Resources and Energy, 2012 Annual Report on Energy (published in Dec.2012)