reducing risk, increasing certainty… · automation upgrade road map- pre feed readiness for...

© ABB GroupSeptember 24, 2014 | Slide 1

Automation Cutover Risk Management (ARCM)23/24 Sept 2014Chris Greaves, [email protected]

Reducing Risk, Increasing Certainty…

CUTOVER RISK??????

WHERE IS IT?HOW TO MANAGE IT?


Poorly executed Cut Over- Consequences?

§ What are the consequences

§ Lost production

§ Losses of containment

§ Loss of control

§ Harms

§ Environment

§ Personnel

§ Business

Carefully considered and robustly executed Cut Over RiskManagement protects investment in both assets and licenseto operate


Where are the risks

§ Modified processes and equipment

§ Is it what was originally commissioned

§ How robust is the MoC

§ Are changes understood and documented

§ Skills and knowledge- unfamiliar territory

§ Who has been through a cut over?

§ How often restarted?

§ Sophisticated interactions

§ Up and downstreams ops

§ Impact on utilities

§ UPS’s & Backups

§ Optimizers

§ Etc, etc© ABB GroupSeptember 24, 2014 | Slide 12

Automation Cut Over & Risk Management Process

§ Risk based techniques to identify and mitigate threats to production, safety andcontinuity from cut-over activity

§ Carefully formalized, integrated and tightly controlled task execution andcontrol- “on the day”

§ All stages formalized, visible and support by ‘stakeholders’

§ Integral review stages and processes

Simple concept:

Rigorous and repeatable process to identify risks early & select appropriatetechniques

Risk based techniques to categorize and identify mitigation

Tightly controlled formalized & documented work process, including ‘on the dayof’ work packages



It is very important to remember...“Plants are process driven NOT

Engineering driven!” & “Operations isalways King!”


Feasibility /Migration

study

FEED

Decommissioning

Cut OverProcedures

Detail Design &Enabling work

Detail Design

Pre Shutdownwork

ShutdownInstallation

Test &Commission

UpgradedAutomation

System

Cut Over

Automation Upgrade Road Map- Pre FeedReadiness for

changeRisk

Identification

Readiness for Change

§ Readiness for Cutover Health Check

§ Understanding & Expectations

§ Process Risk (priority & ranking)

§ Operational Risk

§ Resource Risk

§ Alarm Rationalization

§ Management Plan

§ Logistics Plan (timeline)

§ Communication Plan

§ Review of ‘as is’ situation at target unit§ Systems

§ Information

§ Skills & Knowledge© ABB GroupSeptember 24, 2014 | Slide 23

Risk Management Process Overview

§ Risk Management Plan – define how to conductactivities.

§ Identify Risks – what threats may effect the project.

§ Perform Qualitative Risk Analysis – prioritizing risk &probability of occurrence / impact.

§ Perform Quantitative Risk Analysis – numerically analysisof the effects of identified risk.

§ Risk Mitigation

§ Plan Risk Response – developing actions / options toenhance opportunities & reduce threats.

§ Control Risk – the implementation process.© ABB GroupSeptember 24, 2014 | Slide 24


Reviews / Risk Assessment

§ Loop Critically Review

§ Failure Mode Effect Analysis (FMEA)Review

§ Risk Analysis Study

§ Implementation Strategy Review

§ Cut-Over Methods Review

§ Hazcom Reviews

§ Training and Validation RequirementReview

§ Detail design reviews

Risk Mitigation

§ Identify risk & mitigation§ For all risks

§ Formalized processes and procedures

§ Communication and training

§ Alignment with existing MoC process

§ Continuous process of review and checking

§ Lower risk

§ Grouping by type

§ Generic job methods developed

§ Each loop still has individual job method and work controls

§ Higher risk

§ Individual consideration

§ Individual bespoke job method and work control

§ End to end assessment of Critical loops



Migration study activities

§ Existing Automation system ( & Plant if necessary) issurveyed

§ Options are investigated

§ URS (User Requirements Specification) produced

§ Issued to Automation vendors

§ Tender analysis performed

§ Commercial

§ Technical

§ Recommendation of options

§ Budget estimate of project cost

§ Project programme produced


FEED stageCommon Activities

§ Chosen migration path validated

§ Site surveyed to validate proposed solution path

§ Documentation gathered & quality assessed

§ Cutover points - confirmed

§ Identification of “How it will be done” with regards the location of the new DCSequipment

§ System rationalisation addressed - graphics, redundant areas

§ Safety – MoC system, Permit to Work, voltages, process hazards

§ Technical issues resolved with Automation Vendor & Installation Contractor

§ Opportunities to harvest critical spares from redundant equipment identified

§ Removal of redundant equipment considered

§ Estimate refinedShutdown Upgrade

§ Identify proposed plant changes during shutdown

§ Is Automation Upgrade part of a bigger project i.e.Control Room Upgrade / relocation

§ Pre shutdown work

§ Implementation strategy/plan – Shutdown planning

On-Line Upgrade§ Critical loops identification - criteria

§ Identify enabling work if required

§ Implementation strategy/plan on-line cutover plan

§ Communication and Training requirements for at linecutover personnel (Ops and Eng)

§ Formalized processes and controls for critical loops


Shutdown Window (“Cold Cutover”)

§ Advantages§ Potential reduction in time for the control system upgrade§ Perceived simple option

§ Reduced risk & cost§ Plant “buy-in” : “we always make plant modifications this way”

§ Disadvantages§ Process cold/black start up on a new DCS system§ Control system brought on-line immediately!§ DCS will always become the critical path – another reason why

shutdowns get extended!§ No fallback in case of problems§ Plant modifications/projects happening – impact on new DCS§ Shutdowns are for maintenance / overhaul activities


On-Line (Hot Cutover)

§ Advantages§ No requirement for an shutdown window§ Reduction of risk§ Limited, or no impact on the plants production§ Ability for a phased implementation over a period of time in line with

Business requirements§ The plant does not have to be restarted after an extended shutdown on

a new control system§ Benefit from the new DCS system NOW rather than having to wait for a

shutdown

§ Disadvantages§ Need to plan for an extended period of time compared with a shutdown§ Will have 2 systems running in parallel during cutover§ More sustained effort is required to ensure the cutover is successful§ Perceived more expensive than a shutdown

Hot or Cold Cut?Not necessary the right question!

AutomationCutover

Shutdown(Cold

Cutover)

Combination(Hybrid)

Online(Hot

Cutover)



Readinessfor change

Feasibility /Migration

study

FEED

Decommissioning

Cut OverProcedures

Detail Design &Enabling work

Detail Design

Pre Shutdownwork Shutdown

Installation Test &Commission

UpgradedAutomation

System

Cut Over

Automation Upgrade Road Map

HMIUpgradeto ABB800xA

On line Cut Over Route

Shutdown Window Route

Critical Cutover Procedures

§ Formalized agreed assessment of risks(quantitate/qualitative)

§ Risk Mitigation/Management clearly identified

§ Formal written task procedure

§ Training & Competence

§ Defined plant status at start (Go/No Go)

§ Contingency plans if needed

§ Defined status at end (Hand back)

§ Top tip: Beware multi track working- understandinteractions



Shutdown / On-line Upgrade - Success factors!Common Factors

§ Business understands inherent risks

§ Operations buy-in to deliver

§ The project process used

§ The review process undertaken

§ The documentation quality

§ Training

Shutdown Upgrade Factors§ Buy-in from shutdown management

team

§ Maximise pre shutdown work§ Use Pre-cutover procedures if

possible

On-line Upgrade Factors§ The implementation strategy for

cut-over

§ The cutover team resource§ The cutover methods developed

§ Cutover methods followed§ Enabling work

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