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REDEFINING LOAN PRICING AND ALLOCATION FOR NEW RISK BASED CAPITAL REGULATIONS David Koch President/CEO [email protected] 800-236-3724 ext. 4217

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Page 1: REDEFINING LOAN PRICING AND ALLOCATION FOR NEW RISK …€¦ · • RAROC Loan pricing & Finance\ ALM • Cash flow not term • Bridging the gap between lending and financing departments

REDEFINING LOAN PRICING AND ALLOCATION FOR NEW RISK BASED CAPITAL REGULATIONS

David KochPresident/[email protected] ext. 4217

Page 2: REDEFINING LOAN PRICING AND ALLOCATION FOR NEW RISK …€¦ · • RAROC Loan pricing & Finance\ ALM • Cash flow not term • Bridging the gap between lending and financing departments

Market Challenges TodayMargins under attack for a decade• Historically low interest rates, • Weak loan demand, • Lack of appetite for growth, • Growing cash positions,• …New capital requirements forcing higher capital levels• Redefined “real” equity• Enhanced focus on risk assetsDifficulty growing saturated portfolios• Auto market competition• Fast cash flow turnover

Regulatory focus • On “locking up” longer term

liquidity– More cash\assets based sources– Less reliance on borrowings

• Concern over rising interest rates– Risk to earnings– Risks to “value” of assets

Member demand for products we don’t really like• Longer term, fixed rate• Commercial & RE

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Page 3: REDEFINING LOAN PRICING AND ALLOCATION FOR NEW RISK …€¦ · • RAROC Loan pricing & Finance\ ALM • Cash flow not term • Bridging the gap between lending and financing departments

CFO\CEO Challenge - Optimal Earning Asset Matrix

Every balance sheet mix carries maximum return\volatility combinations

Finding your optimal earnings frontier is key to strategic\capital plan• What strategy has higher

earnings potential and less “risk”

What can I do on the asset side of the balance sheet to move from 8.0% to 10.4%

Volatility of earnings

RO

E

Page 4: REDEFINING LOAN PRICING AND ALLOCATION FOR NEW RISK …€¦ · • RAROC Loan pricing & Finance\ ALM • Cash flow not term • Bridging the gap between lending and financing departments

Outline & AgendaUnderstanding the new capital regulations on loan pricing• Balance sheet growth & capital

issues• RAROCLoan pricing & Finance\ALM• Cash flow not term• Bridging the gap between lending

and financing departments

Examples• Commercial loans• Autos loans• 1-4 Family real estate• Loan “Add-ons”

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Page 5: REDEFINING LOAN PRICING AND ALLOCATION FOR NEW RISK …€¦ · • RAROC Loan pricing & Finance\ ALM • Cash flow not term • Bridging the gap between lending and financing departments

CU Risk Based Capital RegulationsNew regulations focus capital on 2 factors• Net worth ratio

• Real capital on the balance sheet

• Risk based capital• Assign risk rating to various asset classes• Multiply asset balance times risk weight• Sum is the “total risk based” assets for denominator

• Risk ratings largely based on credit risk assumptions

• No assessment for interest rate risk• Some assessment for concentration risk

Page 6: REDEFINING LOAN PRICING AND ALLOCATION FOR NEW RISK …€¦ · • RAROC Loan pricing & Finance\ ALM • Cash flow not term • Bridging the gap between lending and financing departments

Risk Based Capital & Loan SelectionRisk Weights under new RBC Rules• Risk weights reflect basic, inherent credit risks

• Adjust capital targets for additional market risks • Adjust capital targets for higher IRR exposures

• Most pricing actions fail to consider the cost of the new capital requirements on rate setting and risk.

• What happens if we grow loans faster than we grow the capital needed to support the new risk levels assigned?

Page 7: REDEFINING LOAN PRICING AND ALLOCATION FOR NEW RISK …€¦ · • RAROC Loan pricing & Finance\ ALM • Cash flow not term • Bridging the gap between lending and financing departments

Risk Based Capital & Loan SelectionRisk Weights under new RBC Rules• Share secured loans – 0 to 20%• 1-4 family RE – 1st Lien (two tiers)

• 50% risk weight up to 35% of total assets• 75% risk weight on balances > 35% of total assets

• 1-4 family RE – Jr (2nd) Lien• 100% risk weight up to 20% of total assets• 150% risk weight on balances > 20%• Note that JR liens with no interceding 1st lien get 1st lien treatment

Page 8: REDEFINING LOAN PRICING AND ALLOCATION FOR NEW RISK …€¦ · • RAROC Loan pricing & Finance\ ALM • Cash flow not term • Bridging the gap between lending and financing departments

Risk Based Capital & Loan Selection• Commercial Loans

• 100% risk weight up to 50% of total assets• 150% over 50%• Still governed by 12.25% of total asset statutory cap without a waiver from

NCUA

• Off balance sheet exposures are counted at a “factor”• Unused lines of credit• Commitments to originate• Loans sold with recourse

Have you adjusted your pricing and asset allocation\selection for the new risk based net worth standards?

Page 9: REDEFINING LOAN PRICING AND ALLOCATION FOR NEW RISK …€¦ · • RAROC Loan pricing & Finance\ ALM • Cash flow not term • Bridging the gap between lending and financing departments

Factors in Pricing LoansCash flows, not maturity• Do you view a Mortgage Backed

security the same way as a Municipal bond?

Funding costs• Does your current cost of funds matter?• Is that what keeps you from making

longer term loans when rates are low?• Potential funding costs are what matters

Risks to consider• Interest rate risk – cash flows• Credit risk (ALLL and losses)• Servicing costs

– Origination– Incremental cost of additional servicing– Direct or general overhead allocations?

• Option risk – cash flow volatility– Prepayment– Caps/floors

• Market rates?– Competitors that are making bad decisions

should not be followed over the cliff!

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Page 10: REDEFINING LOAN PRICING AND ALLOCATION FOR NEW RISK …€¦ · • RAROC Loan pricing & Finance\ ALM • Cash flow not term • Bridging the gap between lending and financing departments

Cash Flow and Repricing Characteristics

Term or Revolving• Amortizing?• Term• Balloon?

– Amortization Term• Prepayment Speed

Fixed or Variable• Origination Rate• First Reprice• Repricing Rate• Repricing Frequency

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60 Month Bullet Loan

Page 11: REDEFINING LOAN PRICING AND ALLOCATION FOR NEW RISK …€¦ · • RAROC Loan pricing & Finance\ ALM • Cash flow not term • Bridging the gap between lending and financing departments

Loan Pricing – Cash Flows

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60 Month Bullet

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56

Cum Prin CF

Series1Series2

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

1 2 3 4 5

Funding Cost

Funding Rates

Match

Considers Interest Cash Flows

60 Month Single Pay Loan

Page 12: REDEFINING LOAN PRICING AND ALLOCATION FOR NEW RISK …€¦ · • RAROC Loan pricing & Finance\ ALM • Cash flow not term • Bridging the gap between lending and financing departments

Loan Pricing – Cash Flows

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MatchConsiders Interest Cash Flows

60 Month New Car - 20% PP

$0

$20,000

$40,000

$60,000

$80,000

$100,000

$120,000

1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56

Cum Prin CF

Assumed 20% annual prepayments

60 Month Amortizing Loan

Page 13: REDEFINING LOAN PRICING AND ALLOCATION FOR NEW RISK …€¦ · • RAROC Loan pricing & Finance\ ALM • Cash flow not term • Bridging the gap between lending and financing departments

Loan Pricing – Cash Flows

Match Considers Interest Cash Flows& Repricing

5 Year Ballon Mtg - 8% PP

$0$5,000

$10,000$15,000$20,000$25,000$30,000$35,000$40,000$45,000$50,000

1 6 11 16 21 26 31 36 41 46 51 56

Cum Prin CF

60 Month Variable Rate Amortizing Loan

Page 14: REDEFINING LOAN PRICING AND ALLOCATION FOR NEW RISK …€¦ · • RAROC Loan pricing & Finance\ ALM • Cash flow not term • Bridging the gap between lending and financing departments

Pricing Models – Separating “Fools Gold” from Real

Reality: other FI’s set ratesGoals for a pricing model• Identify well priced loans• Identify poorly priced loans• Aggressively compete for well-

priced loans• Do not aggressively compete for

poorly priced loans

Loan pricing models• Market View

– Investment benchmarks– Valuation

• Balance sheet view– RAROC – Risk Adjusted Return on

Capital– ROA - Net income produced

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Page 15: REDEFINING LOAN PRICING AND ALLOCATION FOR NEW RISK …€¦ · • RAROC Loan pricing & Finance\ ALM • Cash flow not term • Bridging the gap between lending and financing departments

Most Common Loan Pricing MethodsFive pricing methods found in CU’s1. Cost plus approach

• Most basic approach but severe flaws

2. Investment benchmark comparison

• Are we better of investing or making the loan when we adjust for risks & costs in each option?

3. Income contribution• Does this add incremental

earnings• Fails to consider growth in

assets vs. growth in capital4. Valuation

• Is the loan able to be sold for a gain

• Not as prevalent in CUs5. Return on capital (RAROC)

• Least used but most important under new capita regs

We are only touching on 3 today. 1, 2 and 5

Page 16: REDEFINING LOAN PRICING AND ALLOCATION FOR NEW RISK …€¦ · • RAROC Loan pricing & Finance\ ALM • Cash flow not term • Bridging the gap between lending and financing departments

1. Cost Plus Pricing Approach• Step 1: Determine Costs of Making Loan

– Begin with an institution’s current funding cost 0.5%– Add adjustments to cover credit risk and operating expense +2.0%– Add enough additional spread to meet ROE/ROA objectives. +1.0%– Total Costs + ROA Target = 3.5%

• Step 2: Set Loan Rate to Meet Income Needed – Yield– Fees– Price the loan to provide the needed spread. FAIL!

Page 17: REDEFINING LOAN PRICING AND ALLOCATION FOR NEW RISK …€¦ · • RAROC Loan pricing & Finance\ ALM • Cash flow not term • Bridging the gap between lending and financing departments

Should I Use Cost of Funds to Price? NO – NEVER!Cost of funds is a terrible indicator of market costs.It is a historical measure of what has been done.• Movement of funding costs is slow as rates FALL

– Slow to drop deposit rates on non-maturity funds– CD rates take time to unwind– Result is higher loan rates as rates are falling

• Movement of funding costs is slow as rates RISE– Likely to LAG market rate increases on non-maturity rates– Members slow to move to CD rates– Result is LOWER than market rates

Page 18: REDEFINING LOAN PRICING AND ALLOCATION FOR NEW RISK …€¦ · • RAROC Loan pricing & Finance\ ALM • Cash flow not term • Bridging the gap between lending and financing departments

Why You Don’t Use Cost of Funds To Price Loans

Note how Prime and 1 Yr Treas. came down fast, but CU funding costs took over 8-12 quarters to adjust

Page 19: REDEFINING LOAN PRICING AND ALLOCATION FOR NEW RISK …€¦ · • RAROC Loan pricing & Finance\ ALM • Cash flow not term • Bridging the gap between lending and financing departments

2. Investment BenchmarkInvestment Benchmark• Market not internal benchmark• Compares performance of loan to

closest investment benchmark adjusting for risk & cost differences.

• Most relevant when– You are trying to decide how to invest

cash already raised.– Anytime investing in a security is an

alternative to making a loan– You are trying to derive market

adjustments for• Interest rate risk• Option risk

What’s Not considered• Funding cost curve• Capital requirement• Risk Adjusted Return on Capital

Goals (RAROC)Process• Compare overnight risk free to

duration matched risk free rate• Adjust duration matched rate for

option risks and credit risks in loan offering

• Add in servicing costs• Compare “grossed up” rate to offer

rate

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Page 20: REDEFINING LOAN PRICING AND ALLOCATION FOR NEW RISK …€¦ · • RAROC Loan pricing & Finance\ ALM • Cash flow not term • Bridging the gap between lending and financing departments

Investment Benchmark Comparison - CRE

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Comparing a 4% 5/20 Balloon to a 4.5% 20 Yr FR CRE

Note scale does not show that this is ½ of total principle balance

Spread out over time vs. lump sum

Page 21: REDEFINING LOAN PRICING AND ALLOCATION FOR NEW RISK …€¦ · • RAROC Loan pricing & Finance\ ALM • Cash flow not term • Bridging the gap between lending and financing departments

Investment Benchmark Comparison - CRE

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Comparing a 4% 5/20 Balloon to a 4.5% 20 Yr FR CRE

Making a bet with balloon that you can reinvest over the remaining 15 years are rates to “beat” the original rate.

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Investment Benchmark Comparison - CRE

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Both options look good vs. investment options.

20 Yr FR amortizing loan only 6 bp less profitable than 5/20 balloonLonger cash flows requires more IRR coverageCan a 50bp premium be collected from customer in exchange for cash flow certainty?Duration extends < 2 years

Investment Benchmarks 5/20 Balloon CRE20 Yr FR CRE

@4.5%

Risk Free Rate 0.460% 0.460%+ Int Rate Risk Adjust 0.937% 1.518%

= Risk Free Match 1.397% 1.978%+ Option Risk Adjust 0.750% 0.750%

= Investment Benchmark 2.147% 2.728%+ Credit Risk Adjust 0.250% 0.250%

+ Expense Adjust 0.795% 0.775%= Retail Equiv Benchmark 3.192% 3.753%

Wtd Loan Yield 4.000% 4.500%Spread to Benchmark 0.808% 0.747%

-0.060%Duration 3.42 5.31

Conclusion: 20 Yr FR fully amortizing CRE loan can be a profitable loan when compared to investment alternatives. Covers the inherent risks and costs!

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3 & 4 – Income Statement FTP & Valuation Methods

3. Income Statement (FTP)• Internal profitability measurement• Evaluates profitability within

balance sheet context• Most relevant when

– You are trying to decide if you can make money originating a loan.

– Anytime you are evaluating profitability of a relationship, product or profit center.

– Outputs• Dollar contribution to income (ROA)

4. Valuation• Uses the market to determine

profitability vs. a benchmark rate• Compares market value of loan as

compared to the “book value” at time of origination

• Most relevant when– You are going to sell loan after

origination.– When you are trying to improve

franchise (NEV|EVE) value by holding best priced assets.

– Outputs• Price vs market• + make and sell (or keep?)• - don’t make

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Page 24: REDEFINING LOAN PRICING AND ALLOCATION FOR NEW RISK …€¦ · • RAROC Loan pricing & Finance\ ALM • Cash flow not term • Bridging the gap between lending and financing departments

5. Risk Adjusted Return on Capital (RAROC)5. RAROC (FTP)• Internal profitability measurement• Evaluates profitability within

balance sheet context• Most relevant when

– You are trying to decide if you can make money originating a loan.

– Anytime you are evaluating profitability of a relationship, product or profit center.

– Outputs• Dollar contribution to income (ROA)• Return on required capital (RAROC)

What’s Not considered• Risk free returns• Investment alternativesProcess• Compare overall return to a

funding curve and other costs – Operating expense– Credit risks– Option risks– Fee income– Capital requirement & goals

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Page 25: REDEFINING LOAN PRICING AND ALLOCATION FOR NEW RISK …€¦ · • RAROC Loan pricing & Finance\ ALM • Cash flow not term • Bridging the gap between lending and financing departments

Capital Allocation In Loan Pricing Why assign a capital requirement to a loan?• Relates profitability of an entity (loan)

to a primary earnings measurement ratio.

• Allows for adjustments in return based on differential capital needs for different loans and investments.

Should you bother with a capital allocation model?• Will adding this level of complexity

have a material effect on analysis or decisions?

• Is capital a constraint– Regulatory requirements– Self-imposed requirements

What capital allocation model should I use?• Leverage Requirement

– Core net worth requirement– Internal capital goals

• Risk Based Requirement– NCUA levels

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Page 26: REDEFINING LOAN PRICING AND ALLOCATION FOR NEW RISK …€¦ · • RAROC Loan pricing & Finance\ ALM • Cash flow not term • Bridging the gap between lending and financing departments

Required Capital By StrategyRBNW has a key role in assessing various options on potential growth?• Many CU’s have excess capital today• Risk weights can help tell story of possible growth pathsConsider the following• $300 million CU

– Traditional mix of RE, Auto, Consumer loans– Net worth ratio 13.75%, Minimum ratio required by NCUA 8%– Expense structure to support a $500-700 million shop, very high given size

• Strategy is to grow assets to lower costs– Asset growth options

• Increase RE exposures• Find options to increase consumer loans (indirect, purchase loans, low rates)• Move to commercial loans

Page 27: REDEFINING LOAN PRICING AND ALLOCATION FOR NEW RISK …€¦ · • RAROC Loan pricing & Finance\ ALM • Cash flow not term • Bridging the gap between lending and financing departments

What Growth path is Right for You?Determining required return to meet capital needs• Assume your CU is targeting a 12% RBNW ratio

• How do we set capital requirement by asset class?

• RBNW Target * Risk weight• 150% RW asset – RAROC (ROE) target = 18%• 100% RW asset – RAROC (ROE) target = 12%• 75% RW asset – RAROC (ROE) target = 9% • 50% RW asset – RAROC (ROE) target = 6%• 20% RW asset – RAROC (ROE) target = 2.4%• 0% RW asset - RAROC (ROE) not important, focus on ROA

Page 28: REDEFINING LOAN PRICING AND ALLOCATION FOR NEW RISK …€¦ · • RAROC Loan pricing & Finance\ ALM • Cash flow not term • Bridging the gap between lending and financing departments

RAROC (Lifetime) 5/20 Balloon 20 Yr FRWtd Loan Yield 4.000% 4.500%+Wtd Fees 0.000% 0.000%- Wtd Fund Bench 1.642% 2.330%- Option Risk 0.375% 0.375%- Credit Risk 0.250% 0.250%- Expense 0.792% 0.775%= Spread 0.941% 0.770%- Tax Adjust 0.000% 0.000%= After Tax Spread 0.941% 0.770%/ Capital Req. 12.000% 12.000%= ROE (RAROC) 7.842% 6.417%ROE Target 12.000% 12.000%ROE Spread -4.158% -5.583%

RAROC Comparison - CRE Lifetime

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This lifetime analysis considers all the cash flows.Assuming a 12% ROE target

• 100% risk weighted asset• 12% targeted capital ratio

Note funding costs are higher based on longer term remaining balances.Neither loan produces desired ROEExpenses slightly lower as you amortize fixed costs over longer termKey question is funding cost

• Analysis assumes 100% funding at wholesale advance rates

• Can you “beat” that cost in any way?• Do you have a “budget” or “pool” of long

term funding and is it being allocated already?

Page 29: REDEFINING LOAN PRICING AND ALLOCATION FOR NEW RISK …€¦ · • RAROC Loan pricing & Finance\ ALM • Cash flow not term • Bridging the gap between lending and financing departments

Horizon Income 5/20 Balloon CRE20 Yr FR CRE

@4.5%

Horizon Period (yrs) 3.0 3.0Interest Income $99,158 $111,831+ Fees $0 $0- Fund Expense $39,524 $49,478- Option Risk $9,296 $9,319- Credit Risk $6,197 $6,213- Oper. Expense $20,092 $20,139= Net Income B4 Tax $24,048 $26,683- Taxes $0 $0= After Tax Net Income $24,048 $26,683

Horizon ROE 9.701% 10.737%

RAROC Comparison - CRE 3 Yr Horizon

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Considering just the first 3 years income statement, shows that in the short run the 20 yr CRE more profitable than balloon.Key issue is the funding cost in the later years (the cost of the “tail”)

• How can a FI manage this to be less expensive than using bulleted FHLB advances in years 5 through 20?

Page 30: REDEFINING LOAN PRICING AND ALLOCATION FOR NEW RISK …€¦ · • RAROC Loan pricing & Finance\ ALM • Cash flow not term • Bridging the gap between lending and financing departments

RAROC Comparison - CRE How can we raise the ROE on these loans? • Origination fee • Higher rate?• Additional

relationships?

Goal – Find options that are win\win to get to 12% ROE• Key concern, can you

sell it?

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RAROC (Lifetime)20 YR @

5%

5/20 Balloon w\fee

20 Yr @ 4.5 w\fee

Wtd Loan Yield 5.000% 4.000% 4.500%+Wtd Fees 0.000% 0.250% 0.250%- Wtd Fund Bench 2.330% 1.642% 2.330%- Option Risk 0.375% 0.375% 0.375%- Credit Risk 0.250% 0.250% 0.250%- Expense 0.775% 0.792% 0.775%= Spread 1.270% 1.191% 1.020%- Tax Adjust 0.000% 0.000% 0.000%= After Tax Spread 1.270% 1.191% 1.020%/ Capital Req. 12.000% 12.000% 12.000%= ROE (RAROC) 10.583% 9.925% 8.500%ROE Target 12.000% 12.000% 12.000%ROE Spread -1.417% -2.075% -3.500%

Page 31: REDEFINING LOAN PRICING AND ALLOCATION FOR NEW RISK …€¦ · • RAROC Loan pricing & Finance\ ALM • Cash flow not term • Bridging the gap between lending and financing departments

OTHER COMMON CU EXAMPLES

Assessing profitability of loans

Page 32: REDEFINING LOAN PRICING AND ALLOCATION FOR NEW RISK …€¦ · • RAROC Loan pricing & Finance\ ALM • Cash flow not term • Bridging the gap between lending and financing departments

RATE SHEET

A+ A B C730+ 680-729 640-679 600-639

% % % %

36 months 2.99 3.24 4.49 6.4948 months 3.24 3.49 4.49 6.4960 months 3.24 3.49 4.49 6.4972 months 3.99 4.24 5.24 7.2484 months 4.99 5.24 6.24 n/a

% % % %

36 months 2.99 3.49 4.74 6.7448 months 3.24 3.74 4.74 6.7460 months 3.24 3.74 4.74 6.7472 months 3.99 4.24 5.24 n/a84 months 4.99 5.24 n/a n/a

% % % %

36 months 3.24 3.49 4.74 6.7448 months 3.49 3.74 4.74 6.7460 months 3.49 3.74 4.74 7.2472 months 4.24 4.74 n/a n/a84 months 5.24 n/a n/a n/a

% % % %

36 months 4.24 4.49 5.49 7.4948 months 4.24 4.49 5.49 7.4960 months 4.24 4.49 5.99 7.9972 months 4.74 n/a n/a n/a

2013 & newer

2010 - 2012

2008 & 2009

2007

Typical CU Car Loan Rate SheetCredit Risk Adjustments

Col

late

ral a

nd IR

R A

djus

tmen

ts

Typical 2 factor pricing model• Collateral• Credit

No loan size factor

Page 33: REDEFINING LOAN PRICING AND ALLOCATION FOR NEW RISK …€¦ · • RAROC Loan pricing & Finance\ ALM • Cash flow not term • Bridging the gap between lending and financing departments

Indirect 60 Month Used Auto What would you have to charge to get a 12% ROE• $30k avg. balance• 2.99% buy rate• $350 internal cost

to originate• 0.50% servicing• 0.50% credit loss• 1% dealer fee• 9% (75% RW)

required capitalReturn on Assets• -1.34%Return on Equity• -7.47%

Is it possible to make this loan profitable?

Page 34: REDEFINING LOAN PRICING AND ALLOCATION FOR NEW RISK …€¦ · • RAROC Loan pricing & Finance\ ALM • Cash flow not term • Bridging the gap between lending and financing departments

Investment BenchmarksRisk Free Rate 0.476%+ Int Rate Risk Adjust 0.452%

= Risk Free Match 0.928%+ Option Risk Adjust 0.000%= Investment Benchmark 0.928%+ Credit Risk Adjust 0.500%

+ Expense Adjust 1.743%

+ Add'l Option Risk Adjust 0.250%= Retail Equiv Benchmark 3.420%Wtd Loan Yield 2.990%Spread to Benchmark -0.430%

Indirect 60 Month Used Auto

High cost of acquisition is spread out over a short duration causing higher costs

RAROC (Lifetime)Wtd Loan Yield 2.990%+Wtd Fees 0.000%

- Wtd Fund Bench 1.090%- Option Risk 0.250%- Credit Risk 0.500%- Expense 1.743%= Spread -0.592%- Tax Adjust 0.000%= After Tax Spread -0.592%

/ Capital Req. 9.000%= ROE (RAROC) -6.579%ROE Target 12.000%ROE Spread -18.579%

Page 35: REDEFINING LOAN PRICING AND ALLOCATION FOR NEW RISK …€¦ · • RAROC Loan pricing & Finance\ ALM • Cash flow not term • Bridging the gap between lending and financing departments

Indirect 60 Month Used Auto What would you have to charge to get a 12% ROE• Rate of 4.733%

gets the breakeven RAROC for capital needs.

• Does it make any sense to book loans that when adjusted for credit & interest rate risks is not better than a risk free investment?

Page 36: REDEFINING LOAN PRICING AND ALLOCATION FOR NEW RISK …€¦ · • RAROC Loan pricing & Finance\ ALM • Cash flow not term • Bridging the gap between lending and financing departments

Indirect 60 Month Used Auto – Low Balance Look at horizon profitability measures for smaller dollar value loans using same cost and risk assumptions• Small dollar car loans fail to generate earnings fast enough to cover the

fixed origination costs and services• 1% dealer fee strips most of the profitability on a loan priced at 2.99%

• $30,000 avg balance on higher credit tiers need to adjust for credit costs• Assume 4.99% rate and 0.75% credit loss factor• ROE = +12.09% ROA = +2.18% Retail Benchmark = +1.332%

• $15,000 avg balance on higher credit tiers need to adjust for credit costs• Assume 4.99% rate and 0.75% credit loss factor• ROE = +4.12% ROA = +0.74% Retail Benchmark = +0.653%

Profitability comparison byaverage loan size $5,000 $10,000 $15,000 $20,000 $90,000

Retail Benchmark -4.006% -1.819% -1.18% -0.77% +0.02%

3 Yr ROA -8.59% -4.24% -2.79% -2.07% -0.38%

3 Yr ROE -47.47% -23.57% -15.52% -11.50% -2.11%

Page 37: REDEFINING LOAN PRICING AND ALLOCATION FOR NEW RISK …€¦ · • RAROC Loan pricing & Finance\ ALM • Cash flow not term • Bridging the gap between lending and financing departments

1-4 Family Mortgage – 5 Yr balloon Assumptions• $300k avg. balance• 3.50% rate• $2k orig. cost • 0.20% servicing fee• 6% required capitalReturn on Assets• 0.27%Return on Equity• 2.28%

Can we grow assets and maintain same risk based net worth using this loan?

Do we like this profitability?

Page 38: REDEFINING LOAN PRICING AND ALLOCATION FOR NEW RISK …€¦ · • RAROC Loan pricing & Finance\ ALM • Cash flow not term • Bridging the gap between lending and financing departments

1-4 Family Mortgage – 30 Yr Fixed 16% PPAssumptions• $300k avg. balance• 3.50% rate• $2k orig. cost • 0.20% servicing fee• 6% required capital• 16% PrepaymentRetail Spread: 0.22%Return on Assets• 3 Yr avg. = 0.21%Return on Equity• 3 Yr avg. = 1.74%Better than investment options but do we cover cost of capital?

Page 39: REDEFINING LOAN PRICING AND ALLOCATION FOR NEW RISK …€¦ · • RAROC Loan pricing & Finance\ ALM • Cash flow not term • Bridging the gap between lending and financing departments

1-4 Family Mortgage – 30 Yr Fixed 12% PPAssumptions• $300k avg. balance• 3.50% rate• $2k orig. cost • 0.20% servicing fee• 6% required capital• 12% prepaymentRetail Spread: 0.13%Return on Assets• 0.01%Return on Equity• 0.11%Why did profitability go down on all measures?

Page 40: REDEFINING LOAN PRICING AND ALLOCATION FOR NEW RISK …€¦ · • RAROC Loan pricing & Finance\ ALM • Cash flow not term • Bridging the gap between lending and financing departments

Duration 4.60

RAROC (Lifetime)Wtd Loan Yield 3.500%

+Wtd Fees 0.000%- Wtd Fund Bench 1.941%- Option Risk 0.887%- Credit Risk 0.350%- Expense 0.327%= Spread -0.005%- Tax Adjust 0.000%

= After Tax Spread -0.005%/ Capital Req. 6.000%= ROE (RAROC) -0.087%ROE Target 12.000%ROE Spread -12.087%

1-4 Family RE – 30 Yr Fixed – 16 % CPR

Investment BenchmarksRisk Free Rate 0.476%+ Int Rate Risk Adjust 1.236%

= Risk Free Match 1.712%+ Option Risk Adjust 0.887%= Investment Benchmark 2.599%+ Credit Risk Adjust 0.350%

+ Expense Adjust 0.327%

+ Add'l Option Risk Adjust 0.000%= Retail Equiv Benchmark 3.276%Wtd Loan Yield 3.500%

Spread to Benchmark 0.224%

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1-4 Family RE – 30 Yr Fixed – 12 % CPRDuration 5.53

RAROC (Lifetime)Wtd Loan Yield 3.500%

+Wtd Fees 0.000%- Wtd Fund Bench 2.110%- Option Risk 0.852%- Credit Risk 0.350%- Expense 0.302%= Spread -0.114%- Tax Adjust 0.000%

= After Tax Spread -0.114%/ Capital Req. 6.000%= ROE (RAROC) -1.899%ROE Target 12.000%ROE Spread -13.899%

Investment BenchmarksRisk Free Rate 0.476%+ Int Rate Risk Adjust 1.392%

= Risk Free Match 1.868%+ Option Risk Adjust 0.852%= Investment Benchmark 2.719%+ Credit Risk Adjust 0.350%

+ Expense Adjust 0.302%

+ Add'l Option Risk Adjust 0.000%= Retail Equiv Benchmark 3.372%Wtd Loan Yield 3.500%

Spread to Benchmark 0.128%

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Investment BenchmarksRisk Free Rate 0.476%+ Int Rate Risk Adjust 1.392%

= Risk Free Match 1.868%+ Option Risk Adjust 0.852%= Investment Benchmark 2.719%+ Credit Risk Adjust 0.350%

+ Expense Adjust 0.302%

+ Add'l Option Risk Adjust 0.000%= Retail Equiv Benchmark 3.372%Wtd Loan Yield 3.500%

Spread to Benchmark 0.128%

Investment BenchmarksRisk Free Rate 0.476%+ Int Rate Risk Adjust 1.236%

= Risk Free Match 1.712%+ Option Risk Adjust 0.887%= Investment Benchmark 2.599%+ Credit Risk Adjust 0.350%

+ Expense Adjust 0.327%

+ Add'l Option Risk Adjust 0.000%= Retail Equiv Benchmark 3.276%Wtd Loan Yield 3.500%

Spread to Benchmark 0.224%

1-4 Family RE – 30 Yr Comparison of Prepay Effect

16% Prepayment 12% Prepayment

Slower prepay means more adjustment required for longer term cash flows on the books which cuts profitability

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Summary ResultsRetail Benchmark Spread 0.128%Investment Benchmark Spread 0.781%ROE 0.11%ROE Target 12.00%ROA 0.01%

Summary ResultsRetail Benchmark Spread 0.224%Investment Benchmark Spread 0.901%ROE 1.74%ROE Target 12.00%ROA 0.21%

1-4 Family RE – 30 Yr Comparison of Prepay Effect

16% Prepayment 12% Prepayment

Both loans look to add value to the income statement with positive ROA values, and a positive spread to investments when adjusted for risks and costs. But can we grow with these and maintain our capital?

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Duration 5.53

RAROC (Lifetime)Wtd Loan Yield 3.500%

+Wtd Fees 0.000%- Wtd Fund Bench 2.110%- Option Risk 0.852%- Credit Risk 0.350%- Expense 0.302%= Spread -0.114%- Tax Adjust 0.000%

= After Tax Spread -0.114%/ Capital Req. 6.000%= ROE (RAROC) -1.899%ROE Target 12.000%ROE Spread -13.899%

Duration 4.60

RAROC (Lifetime)Wtd Loan Yield 3.500%

+Wtd Fees 0.000%- Wtd Fund Bench 1.941%- Option Risk 0.887%- Credit Risk 0.350%- Expense 0.327%= Spread -0.005%- Tax Adjust 0.000%

= After Tax Spread -0.005%/ Capital Req. 6.000%= ROE (RAROC) -0.087%ROE Target 12.000%ROE Spread -12.087%

1-4 Family RE – 30 Yr Comparison of Prepay Effect

16% Prepayment 12% Prepayment

Overall profitability is lower because cash flows remain on books longer, and we are assuming we have to fully fund with FHLB advances which are more $$ in longer terms.

IT’S ALL ABOUT CASH FLOW!

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Add on loan exampleCurrent member with 72 month car loan at 4%• Remaining term of 54 months (1.5 yrs old)

Member wants to borrow $3,000 to:• Consolidate credit card debt, • Add a deck to house, or…• What are your options:

– Sell a Home Equity Loan– Sell a Personal Loan– Refinance Car Loan with add-on balance

• What do you do?

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Consider This Common CU LoanFirst, consider the profitability of the $3,000 car loan• Can’t consider the total loan balance as a new loan because you

already have that loan. • Must look at the value of only adding $3,000 more• We know that the cost of the new loan documentation, filings, etc.

are not being covered

But what happens to overall net interest income or margin?

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Consider This Common CU LoanLoan Details Strategy 1: Current Loan

Retail Balances Rate IncomeOriginal Car Loan 15,000$ 4.000% 600$ 0.000% -$ Total Loans 15,000$ 4.000% 600$ Investments -$ 0.000% -$ Total Assets 15,000$ 4.000% 600$

• Current Loan @ 4% earning $600 per year in interest

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Consider This Common CU LoanMarginal Return Calculation by FARIN iPriceNew Loan Option Strategy 2: Lower car rate & +3k

Detail Balances Rate IncomeOriginal Car Loan 15,000$ 2.990% 449$ Additional Loan $s 3,000$ 2.990% 90$ Total Retail Funds 18,000$ 2.990% 538$ Investments -$ 0.000% -$ Total Assets 18,000$ 2.990% 538$

Reduce rate on existing loan to new offer rate of 2.99%• Remember, is 2.99% even profitable?

Add additional $3,000 @ 2.99%Total Income from new loan $538 per year• Down $62 in total income despite more balances in loans!

How many deals can you do like this and make money?

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Consider This Common CU LoanSummary Balances Rate IncomeRetailStrategy 1: Current Loan 15,000$ 4.000% 1,760$ Strategy 2: Lower car rate & +3k 18,000$ 2.990% 2,330$ Change 3,000$ -1.010% (62)$ Marginal Return on Loans -2.060%

Normally CU’s look at spread being reduced by 1.01% • Difference in the AVERAGE return of 4% to 2.99%• But that’s not the real story…

The real return on the new $3,000 loan is calculated by dividing the change in the income by change in the balances

(62) / 3,000 = -2.06%

Do we make this up on volume?

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Loan Pricing in the RBNW WorldTake Aways• CU’s intend to grow assets, and therefore loans

• Pressure on capital will result over time• Lenders and finance teams must unite to find win\win solutions

• Terms to meet market demands and asset growth expectations• Build understanding of risk and cost realities in loan profitability• Use pricing tools effectively to avoid buying “Fool’s Gold”

• Common thoughts on loan profitability and risk must be measured and assessed for reality

• Gut reactions and prevailing thought may not be right

• What may “feel like a good idea” may in fact be costing opportunities for other growth

• More interaction between finance\treasury and lending departments to build a solid foundation for loan pricing that meets everyone’s needs.

• Volume is NOT the answer!

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FARIN Financial Risk ManagementAdvisory Services• From education to strategy FARIN

can recharge your approach to ALCO

Capital Planning• Capital plan development• Integrated stress testing• Capital buffer calculations Asset/Liability Management• Institution managed• Outsourced• Hybrid

Core Deposit Analysis• Vintage analysis• Sensitivity testingCredit Services• ALLL calculation (CECL ready)• Dual loan grading & migration• Credit stress testing• Customer management & trackingLoan & Deposit Pricing• Integrate CFO analytics with needs

of the front-line• Strategy developmentData Warehousing• One data source for all risk analysis

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