recon asia-pacific 2019 short · vietnam malaysia philippine singapore indonesia thailand vietnam...
TRANSCRIPT
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Source: World Bank, Q3 2019
LAO PDR
1.5%VIETNAM
1%
CAMBODIA
1.2%
Growth Rate
0
20,000,000
40,000,000
60,000,000
80,000,000
100,000,000
120,000,000
1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2025 2030
Population
Cambodia Laos Vietnam
Medium AgeCAMBODIA
VIETNAM
LAO PDR
24
2330
Myanmar 70 millionSource : IMF
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Vietnam’s Urbanization continues at a rapid rate
32%
32%
33%
33%
34%
34%
35%
35%
36%
36%
1.02%
1.03%
1.04%
1.05%
1.06%
1.07%
1.08%
1.09%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Urban
pop
ulation
(% of total pop
ulation)
Popu
latio
n Growth ra
te
Urbanisation rate Population growth rate
SOURCE: GSO Vietnam CBRE Vietnam
34m
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Urban Population Cambodia
19.6 19.9 20.3 20.7 21.0 21.4 21.8 22.2 22.6 23.0 23.4
10
20
30
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 ‐
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
4,000
Percen
tage (%
)
Thou
sand
Cambodia Urban Population Cambodia Urban Population Growth Rate
Source: World Bank, 2019
YOUNG POPULATION60% ARE 30 YEARS OLD & BELOW3.8m
Myanmar: 30%, Laos 40%
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Vietnam Remains One Of The Fastest Growing Markets In Southeast Asia
GDP Q2’19 growth vs. YA 6.8
4.26.0
1.9
5.13.3
Vietnam Malaysia Philippine Singapore Indonesia Thailand
Vietnam Malaysia Indonesia ThailandSingapore
123 110 13092
126 105
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Vietnam Malaysia Singapore Indonesia Thailand
Consumer Confidence Index
Philippine
SOURCE: GSO Vietnam Economist Intelligence Unit Nielsen Quarter by number report Q2’19 Nielsen
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GDP Growth Rate
Source: World Bank, 2019
CAMBODIA7.2%
LAO PDR
11%
VIETNAM
6.8%
7.3 7.4 7.1 7 7 6.8 6.9
16.4617.17
11.14
8.44
9.87
6.58
7.60
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Cambodia GDP (Bn USD) Lao PDR GDP (Bn USD) Cambodia GDP Growth (%) Lao PDR GDP Growth (%)
Myanmar6.6%
GDP per capitaVietnam: US$2,600Cambodia: US$1,600Myanmar: US$1,600Laos: US$1,800
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Vietnam Retail Sales growth benefits from a rapidly emerging middle class
SOURCE: GSO Vietnam CBRE Vietnam
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
10%
‐
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,000
5,000,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 6M 2019
Retail sales (VND billion) Retail sales Real Growth
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As Vietnam’s middle class expands, dog meat consumption shrinks
SOURCE: vnexpress net/news Photo by Shuttlestock/bericbogan A man takes his dogs out for a ride in HCMC
A dog transported in a cage in Vietnam. A dog rescued in a dog thief bust in Thanh Hoa Province on September 16, 2019 is returned to its owner.
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dInternational tourist arrivals to Vietnam continue to grow
SOURCE: GSO Vietnam CBRE Vietnam
‐5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
Growth Rate (%
)
Arriv
als (Million pe
rson
s)
International arrivals Growth rate
15m
RL19
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Slide 10
RL19 Which countries are they coming from?Richard Leech, 10/17/2019
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Vietnam named Asia’s leading culinary destination for the first time
SOURCE: vnexpress.net/news.Photo by Shuttlestock/bericbogan
Bánh mì – Vietnamese famous sandwich
Phở ‐Beef noodle
Foreign tourists enjoy Vietnamese dishes at a food stall in Ben Thanh Market, HCMC.
Grilled quail eggs are favored by young people and are one of the best snacks in HCMC
Grilled skewers are one of the most popular street foods in HCMC
Fresh summer rolls served at a market
Cha ca, the pan‐fried squares of fish tossed with dill, onion, turmeric and galangal, is a well known, much favored dish of Hanoi
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Cambodia Tourism
Source: Cambodia Ministry of Tourism, 2019
FORECAST TOP 5 NATIONALITIES2018
2,024,443
800,128
426,180
382,317
301,770
67%
4%
15%
3%
13%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2020 2021 2022
Thou
sand
s
Inbound Tourists Growth Rate (%)
6m
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Factors Driving the Vietnam Economy
Exports (Growing at 16%) 1/3 are hi tech products
Urbanization Rates(Growing at 3% pa)Only 1/3 live in cities compared to ½ in China)
Household ConsumptionDriven by strong demographicsExpected USD $3,329GDP per capita in 2022
SOURCE: Statista Vietnam 2012 – 2022 Nielsen
Manufacturing(20% of GDP)
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Physical Factors holding us back
Unfinished Metro line in Ha Noi City Construction in CBD of HCMC causing traffic congestion
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Environmental Factors holding us backFloodingPollutionRising tidesSalinationFood HygieneDirty Water
Other factors include:BurocracyLegal frameworkCorruption
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SOURCE: CBRE Research Q1 2019
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
HO CHI MINH BANGKOK PHNOM PENH VIENTIANE
CBD Inner City
Average price of land
AVERAGE PRICE USD/SQM
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‐
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 Q3 2019f 2020f 2021f
NLA
(sqm
)
Existing & Future SC Supply - Vietnam
SOURCE: GSO Vietnam CBRE Vietnam
1,033,000m2
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Existing & Future SC Supply – Phnom Penh
Source: CBRE Cambodia, Q3 2019
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
NLA (SQM)
Shopping Mall Shopping Centre Community Mall Retail Podium
347,000m2
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Existing and Future SC Supply - Yangon
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
400,000
450,000
500,000
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F
Area
(sq
m)
Additional supply during the year Supply at the start of the year 388,000m2
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Vietnam has low retail density with growth potential to catch up with regional peers
Retail density (m2/pax)
SOURCE: Savills Vietnam
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Source: CBRE Cambodia, Q3 2019
Rental Rates – HCMC
0%
5%
10%
15%
0
40
80
120
160
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
2017 2018 2019
Vac
ancy
rate
(%)
Ave
rage
ask
ing
Rent
(U
S$/s
qm/m
onth
)
Asking rent - CBD Asking rent - Non-CBD Vacancy Rate - CBD Vacancy Rate - Non-CBD
Asking rents are average for Ground floor and First Floor, exclusive of VAT and service charge.Source: CBRE Research, Q3 2019
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$30.5 $28.5$23.7
$26.5
$‐
$10.00
$20.00
$30.00
$40.00
$50.00
$60.00
$70.00
Prime Shopping Mall Prime Retail Podium Community Mall Prime High Street
Source: CBRE Cambodia, Q3 2019
Rental Rates – Phnom Penh
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Source: Colliers International
Rental Rates – Yangon
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
Q4
2017
Q1
2018
Q2
2018
Q3
2018
Q4
2018
Q1
2019
Q2
2019
Q3
2019
Occupnncy R
ateArea
(sq
m)
New Supply Net Take-up Rate (LHS) Occupancy Rate (RHS)
Yangon Q2 2019 Q3 2019 QOQ Q2 2020F YOY
USD/ SQ METRE/MONTH
30.3 29.0 ‐ 4.2 % 31.0 ‐ 9.6%
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Developers Vingroup Aeon Lotte Keppel Land Mapletree
No. of shopping centres 66 5 13 2 2
FormatCommunity Mall
Neighbourhood MallCBD Mall
Community Mall CBD MallHypermarkets
Community MallCBD Mall
Community MallCBD Mall
LocationsHanoiHCMC
Provinces
HanoiHCMC
HanoiHCMC
ProvincesHCMC HCMC
Major SC developers in Vietnam
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Developers Chip Mong Aeon Peng Huoth OCIC
No. of shopping centres
6 (under construction) 2
(1 under construction)2
(under construction)3
FormatCommunity Mall
Neighbourhood MallCBD Mall
Community Mall Community Mall Community MallCBD Mall
Locations Phnom Penh Phnom Penh Phnom Penh Phnom Penh
Major SC developers in CambodiaChip Mong Noro Mall PH Diamond Place 2020Aeon Mall Sen Sok Olympia Mall
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The Region Remains a Unique, Complex & Traditional Trade Market
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With a high energy and colourful street culture
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Opportunities & Lessons Learnt• Modern Trade formats still only 20% compared to 80% in the traditional sector
• Internet penetration• Infrastructure projects – Metro Lines• Environmental Awareness –Sustainability programs (single use plastics, endangered species and organic products)
• New categories in street food, sports, health and entertainment
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Opportunities & Lessons Learnt• Mixed use retail/residential/office
• Revitalization of core districts, preservation of heritage buildings
• Cultural identity and home grown brands
• Pedestrianization, placemaking and Smart green spaces
• Emerging Middle Class and large young consumption population
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Thank you!