RECOGNITION OF TROUBLE

• No doubt of a system in trouble– Interconnections– Upper level susceptibility– Biomagnification

• Academic theory seemingly backed up by the facts of real life

Source Krupp.wcc.Hawaii

Lake Ontario

• We are not immune

concentrations of PCBs in Great Lakes top predator fish exceed the wildlife protection value of 0.16 ppm, and that top predator fish also exceed the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement criteria of 0.1 ppm in all five Great Lakes.

Evidence

• In 1854 it took 1200 lobsters to fill a fishing smack’s well in Chesapeake Bay

• In 1879 the Maryland catch from part of Chesapeake Bay was 5 million pounds of striped bass

• In 1983 it was under .5 million pounds

• In the Canadian Maritimes between 1989 and 1993 the top ten fish populations dropped by 90%

LACK OF AWARENESS

• Seem that indications from the mid 1850’s up to the present would be obvious

Far Side - Gary Lawson

IGNORANCE OF PROBLEMSResource Economics

• Part of the problem lies in how we see resources

• Ruff “pollution is an economic problem”

• Economics is the study of the exchange of goods, essentially and exclusively determined by market value– influence of incentives and disincentives

• Therefore the majority of economies are based on exploitation of environmental features

• resources are of value - link to Zimmermann

• resources are perceptual and linked to a function - therefore change

• therefore resources are commodities - substitutable

Costa Rica

• In June of '95, the government presented a plan to protect 18% of the country in national parks and another 13% in privately owned preserves. Areas targeted for protection were those with high biodiversity. The government paid for the project by issuing landowners forest protection certificates which annually paid landowners about $50 for every forest hectare (2.5 acres) with the agreement that the forest will be protected

Link to Ecotourism• Costa Rica has initiated numerous inventive programs to

promote sustainable development.

• One such project, organized by FUNDECOR (Foresta Project of the Foundation for the Development of the Central Volcanic Mountain Range), works to sustainably manage more than 13,000 hectares (30,000 acres) of forest by developing forest management plans for landowners.

• Not only do the landowners end up with more money in their pocket, but also do less damage to the forest as they remove valuable trees.

• Land, Labour and Capital are readily interchangeable• If one is perceived to be in short supply then the value

relative to the others is increased

• Assumption of a rational system - homo economicus

• Goal of system is to maximize benefits

• THE SYSTEM SHOULD WORK

SUBSTITUTABLILITY

• We have always had substitutions

• Here the function is the need for energy

• We have had a sequence through natural resource products to meet the same need

• Note fall in original resource as price of substitute is lower

PERCEPTION

• Different perceptions produce a feeling that the system will continue

• So past practice would seem to indicate that we will always find a substitute that fits with our economic situation

• Therefore we can relax

PRESSURE

BILLIONS DATE TIME1 1880 AD 2 – 5 ML YRS2 1930 50 YRS3 1960 30 YRS4 1975 15 YRS5 1987 12 YRS6 1998 11 YRS

• First billion population occurs in 1880 AD– this has taken 2 to 5 million years

• There are two billion on the planet by 1930– the second billion occurs over 50 years

• Three billion is achieved by 1960. – This has only taken 30 years

• Four billion people occupy the planet by 1975– 15 years to add one more billion

• Five billion by the summer of 1987– 12 years to add a billion

• Six billion by 1998– Only 11 years to add one more billion people

Current World Population Growth

07/01/06 6,528,089,562 08/01/06 6,534,625,672 09/01/06 6,541,161,782 10/01/06 6,547,487,051 11/01/06 6,554,023,161 12/01/06 6,560,348,429 01/01/07 6,566,884,540 02/01/07 6,573,420,650 03/01/07 6,579,324,234 04/01/07 6,585,860,345 05/01/07 6,592,185,613 06/01/07 6,598,721,723 07/01/07 6,605,046,992

Net Gain per second: 2.6

Current

• http://www.poodwaddle.com/worldclock.swf

PROJECTED GROWTH TO STABILITY

• If slower rates of growth than at present– 8 billion by the year 2040

• If current rates of growth– 10.5 billion by the year 2110

• If slightly higher growth rates– 14.2 billion by 2130

CONCENTRATION

• 1950 Two cities in the world have a pop. over 10 million

» New York and London

• 1985 Eleven cities in the world are over 10 million

• 2001 Twenty-five cities over 10 million» Mexico City has over 20 million. Tokyo area has 30

million as does New York – Philadelphia area

» Toronto area has 5.3 million (2003)

DEMAND

ExpectationsLevels of living,

consumptionrewards

ATTITUDESlife, health

environmentsocietal equity

DEMANDSwants and needsspecific demand

for goods, servicesexperiences, values

• Population

• A third of the world population is facing water scarcity.

• • 1. about a quarter of the world's

population lives in areas with physical water scarcity -- in places like the United States & Australia

• 2. more than a billion people live in areas where water is available but not fully exploited. In sub-Saharan Africa the water is in the rivers but there are no dams or pumps to use it.

• Fairly obvious that we are pushing the limits of our system

• The pressures continue into this decade

• Positive and negative signs

POSITIVE SIGNS• . By the end of the year 2008, 120 Gigawatt of wind power

capacity were installed worldwide. • Today wind provides more than 1,5 % of the global electricity

consumption and the wind industry employs half a million people. • Currently, 80 countries are using wind energy on a commercial

basis, with the main shares in Germany, USA, Spain, China and India which still account for three quarters of the global wind installations. North America and Asia showed the most dynamic growth rates in the year 2008.

• A 2002 study by the International Facility Management Association showed 95% of facility professionals believe sustainability will become an important issue for their profession

• Of the facility managers responding, 88% were recycling solid waste; 49% were reusing materials; 36% were reducing the production of solid waste; and 12% were recycling water.

• Portland Oregon has reduced carbon emissions below the levels of 1990, the benchmark for the Kyoto accord, while booming economically. The campaign to cut carbon emissions has brought the city huge benefits: less money spent on energy, more convenient transportation, and expertise in energy efficiency that is helping local businesses win contracts worldwide.

• 2005 - plastics from orange peel, using the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide.

• Cornell University researchers created a novel polymer using CO2, an oil present in orange peel and a catalyst that speeds the reaction along.

• Eventual goal - CO2 could one day be collected for making plastics instead of being pumped into the atmosphere.

• 2008 – start up funding

Great Lakes

• Lake trout, once plentiful but nearly wiped out this century, are reproducing in several areas

-- Persistent toxic substances in fish are declining

-- Targets to reduce dangerous phosphorus levels have been met in all lakes except Lake Erie

NEGATIVE SIGNS• Slight increases in

– wars fought, cigarettes produced (China the biggest increase), and populations in urban areas

• Computer growth does not seem to be increasing our abilities to analyze global problems

• Frog population declining in 17 countries– chemical contamination, habitat destruction, frog

meat

• World growing warmer and more crowded

• Rising demand for energy, food, and raw materials by 2.5 billion Chinese and Indians is already having ripple effects worldwide," ( Worldwatch)

• Record-shattering consumption levels in the U.S. and Europe leave little room for this projected Asian growth

• The resulting global resource squeeze is already evident in – riots over rising oil prices in Indonesia,– growing pressure on Brazil's forests and

fisheries– loss of manufacturing jobs in Central America.

• United States still consumes three times as much grain per person as China and five times as much as India

• U.S. per-capita carbon dioxide emissions are six times the Chinese level and 20 times the Indian level.

• If China and India were to consume resources and produce pollution at the current U.S. per-capita level, it would require two planet Earths just to sustain their two economies.

Great Lakes

• While point-source contamination has decreased, atmospheric contamination continues

-- Urbanization threatens natural habitats in many lake ecosystems

-- Diporeia, a bottom-dwelling organism vital to the aquatic food chain, are seriously declining in Lakes Michigan and Ontario

• 2009 - In Lake Michigan, there are almost no Diporeia found at depths shallower than 90 meters.

• 15 years ago, their density often exceeded 10,000 animals per square meter at such depths.

• The spread of invasive zebra and quagga mussels - voracious filter feeders with an overlapping diet - largely coincides with Diporeia's decline

• "We don't know why Diporeia are responding so negatively to the mussels,“

Note: Zebra Mussels intro late 1980’s

• The square feet of the average US home has nearly tripled in the last 40 years, consuming massive quantities of land, building products, and infrastructure; and making the American home one of the biggest environmental threats to the planet

• In 1950, according to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB), the average new house clocked in at 963 square feet.

• By 1970, that figure had swollen to 1,500 square feet.

• 2005 average: 2,400 square feet. One in five are more than 3,000 square feet.

• As houses expanded, the number of household members shrank, from 3.1 people in 1971 to 2.6 people today. The average building-lot size contracted also, to about 8,000 square feet from 9,000 in the 1980s.

• So - bigger houses on smaller lots with fewer people living in them.