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Recent Housing Trends in Rural Ireland

Karen Keaveney and Jim WalshDepartment of Geography, NUI Maynooth

NUI MAYNOOTHOllscoil na hEireann Ma Nuad


Presentation Outline

• Introduction• Recent Rural Population Trends• One Off Dwelling Data• Mapping the Data

density of one off dwellingscomparison of one off dwellings built over timeratio of one off dwellings to farms

• Vacant Rural Dwellingsvacancy levels in each Countyholiday homes in each County

• Conclusions


IntroductionThe debate on rural housing has highlighted the

need for baseline information

The incidence of the issue has changed over time due to changing policy and the

accumulation of pressure in some areas

The 1990s have seen considerable expansion in the Greater Dublin Area, not just into towns

but also into the countryside

Relatively low dwelling density at 5/km2

90% of all rural dwellings are ‘one off’


Recent Rural Population Trends

Increase in national population 11% 1991 to 2002 (+320,000)

Rural population 39% of total4.5% increase since 1991

Ongoing decrease in rural household size3.72 in 1981 to 3.09 in 2002 (-16%)

Accounts for 80% of Housing Demand


Decline in West

Population Change 1991 to 2002

Greatest increases in Greater Dublin Area and adjacent to urban areas

Growth in coastal areas

Continuous pattern of growth from Dundalk to Wexford and westwards


Rural Population by Area Type

High Amenity

Marginal

Weak

Strong Adjusting

Strong

Peri-Urban

% share of change

% change 91 - 02

% of total area

% of total population

Rural Types

11.6

5.4

6.3

2.8

2.5

10.4

8.4

8.9

22.8

19.9

19.3

14.5

13.6

14.9

1.1

- 0.03

10.3

13.0

3.3

0.3

0.2

0.0

9.6

13.3

Maps

The Rural Typology, illustrating Population Change 1991 to 2002


73% of Population

86.6% of total population increase in

these areas

Rural Typology

Urban and Peri-Urban Areas


Rapid growth due to urban expansion

10% of the national population increase

Rural Typology

Strong Rural Areas


12% of the total population

Rural Typology

43% of land area

Weak Areas and Strong Rural Areas in Transition


5% of total population

Rural Typology

Similar in area and population BUT

Marginal and Diversified Rural Areas

Diversified Areas highest growth rate of all rural

types


Recent Rural Population Trends

Changing rural socio-economic profile39% decline in farming employmentrising numbers employed in the professional and administration sectors

Demand for rural housing remains highover 80,000 dwellings built in the open countryside since 1991more than built in the Dublin City and County and all other cities over the same perioddemand for dwellings in particular areas due to limited rural population growth

Mapping the Data


Source: DoELG (2001) 'Rural and Urban Roles' Irish Spatial Perspectives - Paper 13.

Rates of Change of Houses built in Rural

Areas, 1999


Data – sources & definitions

Detached Dwelling + Individual

Septic TankOne Off Dwelling =

One Off Dwellings in the Countryside


Housing by Period of Construction

Housing Density

Urban Vs Rural

One Off Vs all Other Dwellings

Farm Vs Non-farm households

One Off Dwellings Data

Geographical Change in Rural House Building over time

Baseline Data on One Off Rural Housing


29 Counties

5 Cities

County Boundaries


3,440 Electoral Divisions (E.D.s)

Electoral Division Boundaries

Urban E.D.s excluded from following maps

Maps

Density of One Off Dwellings per km2 in each County

Density of One Off Dwellings per km2 in each Electoral Division with the National

Road Network


Density of One Off Dwellings per km2

Only two Counties exceed 8 One Off

Dwellings per km2 :

Louth and Dun Laoghaire-Rathdown

Average of 5 One Off Dwellings per km2 in

each County


Density of One Off Dwellings with National

Road Network

Highlights the impact of the road network and

urban areas on settlement

Highest densities in rural areas in urban hinterlands and at the road network

Highlights coastal areas under pressure

Maps

Comparison of One Off Dwellings built in the 1970s with those built in the 1990s

in each County

Comparison of One Off Dwellings built in the 1970s with those built in the 1990s

in each Electoral Division


Comparison of One Off Dwellings built in the

1970s and 1990s

Northeast shows less one off house building

in the 90s

Northwest, Midlands and areas of the

Southeast increases in excess of 40%


Comparison of One Off Dwellings built in the 1970s

and 1990s

Countywide, less one off dwellings built in the 1990s

in Meath

Extensive areas of the West and Southwest had moreone off dwellings built in

the 1970s

Wexford had significantly more one off dwellings built

in the 1990s

Maps

Ratio of One Off Dwellings to Farms in each Electoral Division


Ratio of One Off Dwellings to Farms

West and Northwest generally below average

Greater Dublin Area and other Urban overspill areas –

more non-farm dwellings

National average = 2.7

Vacant Dwellings

Vacancy Levels in each County 2002

Holiday Homes in each County 2002


Vacant Rural Dwellings

% of Total

Dwellings

Actual Number 187,03218,84616,73925,97838,94685,523

15.74%1.59%1.41%2.18%3.28%7.19%

Total Vacant

Dwellings

Temp Vacant

Uninhab-itable

Under Construc

-tion

Holiday Homes

Habitable but Vacant

38,946

15.74%3.28%

187,032


Vacant Dwellings in each County, 2002

Over 20% vacant dwellings in some Western counties

Counties with highest rural population –highest number of vacant dwellings

24%20%

20%


Holiday Homes in each County, 2002

Holiday homes up to 12% of all dwellings in some Western Counties

Wexford also high number of holiday

homes

12%

7%

7%

9%


Conclusions

• Potential to move away from anecdotal evidence

• Accumulation of pressures over time resulting in contemporary problems

• Build up of density in accessible rural areas

• Increased densities also near coastal and other scenic areas

• Additional impacts of holiday homes and other vacant dwellings


Conclusions

What is the problem…?The number of houses under constructionAesthetics and design – increasing dwelling sizeEnvironmental impacts – carrying capacityPlanning practice and policy

• Highlights the need for spatially differentiated rural settlement policies, as in Rural Housing Guidelines


Acknowledgement

• Central Statistics Office, Rathmines

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