real estate market statistics 2010-2012
DESCRIPTION
NAR\'s Midyear Presentation on Economic Issues and Residential ForumTRANSCRIPT
The Housing Crash Is Over (Nearly)MARK ZANDI, CHIEF ECONOMIST
FROM MOODY”S ECONOMY.COM
Real Estate statistics shared by Angelika
FROM MOODY’S ECONOMY.COM 2
02
0.084722222
0.085416667
0.086111111
03
0.126388889
0.127083333
0.127777778
04
0.168055556
0.16875
0.169444444
05
0.209722222
0.210416667
0.211111111
06
0.251388889
0.252083333
0.252777778
07
0.293055556
0.29375
0.294444444
08
0.334722222
0.335416667
0.336111111
09
0.376388889
0.377083333
0.377777778
10
0.418055556
0.41875
0.419444444
11
0.459722222
0.460416667
0.461111111
12
0.501388889
0.502083333
0.502777778
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
Housing Demand Is Off Bottom…
Sources: Census Realtors, Moody’s Economy.com
New and existing home sales, mil
Trend
FROM MOODY’S ECONOMY.COM 3
…And House Prices Are Near Bottom
Case Shiller® Home Price Index: 2000Q1 = 100
Sources: Fiserv, Moody’s Economy.com
FROM MOODY’S ECONOMY.COM 4
Job Growth Will Improve…
Sources: BLS, BEA
Profit growth,lagged 3-qtrs (R)
Job growth (L)
% change year ago
FROM MOODY’S ECONOMY.COM 5
Business cycle status of metro areas as of January 2010
Source: Moody’s Economy.com
Recovery
Moderating recessionIn recession
Expansion
…Across More of the Country
FROM MOODY’S ECONOMY.COM 6
Federal Govt. Will Continue to Fill the VoidFHA share of purchase mortgage loans
FROM MOODY’S ECONOMY.COM 7
The Federal Reserve Will Remain Aggressive
Sources: Federal Reserve, Moody’s Economy.com
FROM MOODY’S ECONOMY.COM 8
Sources: Census, Moody’s Economy.com
Vacant homes for sale, for rent and held off market, ths
Housing supply = 600,000 Single-family = 450,000 Multifamily = 100,000 Manufactured = 50,000Housing demand = 1,350,000 HH formations = 800,000 Obsolescence = 350,000 Second homes = 200,000
A Surfeit of Housing Inventory…
FROM MOODY’S ECONOMY.COM 9
…And the Foreclosure Pipeline Is FullFirst mortgage loans, ths
Sources: Equifax, Moody’s Economy.com
FROM MOODY’S ECONOMY.COM 10
Bond issuance, $ bil, annualized
Source: Dealogic
The Structured Finance Market is Dormant
FROM MOODY’S ECONOMY.COM 11
There Is No Free Lunch
Sources: BEA, Treasury Department, Moody’s Economy.com
Federal debt-to-GDP ratio