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Readiness and Illinois’ 21st

Century Workforce

Jennifer B. PresleyJennifer B. PresleyIllinois Education Research CouncilIllinois Education Research Council

ierc.siue.eduierc.siue.edu

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A Few Reminders about Illinois’ Job Market

• Between 1990 and 2005, Illinois lost 24% of its manufacturing industry jobs (-225,000, usually higher paying jobs).

• Three service industries: professional and business services, education and health services, and the leisure and hospitality industry, registered the largest proportionate job growth, increasing 37% (+559,300, many are lower paying jobs than manufacturing, but often requiring more education).

• Education is a major factor in employment.

• Higher preparation levels command (relatively) higher wages.

Source: The State of Working Illinois, Center for Tax and Budget Accountability and NIU, 2005.

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• IDES projects an additional 700,000 jobs to be added to the Illinois from 2002 to 2012.– 55% requiring some postsecondary education– 34% requiring at least a bachelor’s degree

• 7 million total Illinois jobs by 2012.– 30% requiring postsecondary education– 23% requiring at least a bachelor’s degree

Sources: From Table 7, Illinois Department of Employment Security; U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics (from State of Working Illinois, 2005.) Projections extrapolate from past job and industry patterns.

Jobs in Illinois are shifting to those that need postsecondary education. This is also the case across the rest of the country.

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• Asked about recent Illinois college graduates’ overall knowledge and skills, 591 Illinois employers report – 38% very satisfied; 57% satisfied; 3% dissatisfied; 2% don’t

know. – They recommended that higher education improve the teaching

of practical skills, and place more emphasis on communication skills.

• Nationally, employers say that – high school graduates are deficient in professionalism/work

ethic, oral and written communication, teamwork/collaboration, and critical thinking/problem solving.

– At the college level, conclusions similar to the Illinois study – citing deficiencies in writing in English, communications and leadership.

Sources: Item 14, IBHE Employer Satisfaction Survey, 2005. Board Meeting, April 4, 2006, pg. 91. The Conference Board, 2006.

And employers want college-ready skills even from high school graduates.

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Illinois’ population is aging – a vibrant economy is needed to support growing

obligations to the aging population.

Source: US. Census population projections, 2005 – www.census.gov/population/projections/DownldFile2.xls. Retrieved 2/23/2007

Year Age 0-19 Age 20-54 Age 55-64 Age 65+

Distribution in 2000 29% 51% 8% 12%

Distribution in 2020 27% 46% 12% 15%

Distribution in 2030 27% 45% 10% 18%

2000-2020 Census Change

-8,707-0.2%

-215,671-3%

553,06653%

488,73933%

2000-2030 Census Change

1,4080.0%

-272,920-4%

372,95936%

912,15261%

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Projections of Working-Age Population (Ages 18‑64)—Percent Change, 2000-20

Source: U.S. Census Bureau (from NCHEMS, November 2005)

37.834.8 32.8

29.023.8

20.720.420.0 18.4

17.713.012.312.011.911.7 10.4

10.0 9.5 9.08.8 8.5 8.2 6.9 6.7 6.3

6.2 6.05.85.65.5 5.04.9 4.7 4.2 3.8 3.5

3.5 3.0 2.4 2.0 1.41.41.21.1

-1.3-1.5 -2.7

-2.9 -3.9 -4.7-8.2-10

0

10

20

30

40

KentuckyNew York

PennsylvaniaO

hioIowa

Michigan

West Virginia

CaliforniaNew M

exicoAlaskaW

yoming

IdahoW

ashingtonTexasFloridaUtahM

arylandG

eorgiaArizonaVirginiaO

regonUnited StatesAlabam

aNew Ham

pshireNew JerseyM

ontanaTennesseeKansasO

klahoma

ColoradoLouisianaSouth CarolinaNevadaNorth CarolinaSouth DakotaConnecticutM

aineArkansasM

issouriDelawareM

ississippiM

innesotaNebraskaVerm

ontM

assachusettsIllinoisNorth DakotaW

isconsinRhode IslandIndiana

Hawaii

• Illinois’ working-age population growth likely to be small. High-growth states are in the West and the South.

• Reliance on educated workforce in-migration will be challenging as surrounding states strive to retain their own well-educated workforce.

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Projected Change in Population Age 25-64 By Race/Ethnicity—Illinois, 2000-20

12,218

1,145,762

12,390249,554

903,359

4,525,673

705,170

369,908

969,498

4,360,447

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

White African-American Hispanic/Latino NativeAmerican/AK

Native

Asian/PacificIslander

2000 2020

Source: U.S. Census Bureau’s Population Projections (from 1995 to 2020) and Census 2000 (from NCHEMS, 2005)

Most projected growth in Illinois is among Hispanics/Latinos

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Workforce Conclusions• Working age population growth is likely to be

small in Illinois – and up mainly for Hispanics/Latinos, followed by Asians.

• An adequate workforce will depend on:

– Continued in-migration

– Participation of those not in the workplace (including younger and older people)

– Improved education pipeline results

Source: From Dennis Jones’ (NCHEMS) presentation to IBHE Summit, Chicago, IL. November 2005. Note that Illinois’ DECO population projections assume that there will be in-migration to meet projected job growth, and so add net in-migration to balance projected job growth.

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The Illinois Education Pipeline

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Changing demographics of IL High School Graduates

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

2000-01

2001-02

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

2013-14

2014-15

2015-16

2016-17

2017-18

White (79,210 to 71,278) Hispanic (10,855 to 29,131)Black, Non-Hispanic (15,498 to 16,165) Asian/Pacific Islander (4,889 to 10,473)American Indian/Alaskan Native (172 to 455)

Source: WICHE Projections of High School Graduates, 2003

Hispanic

AsianBlack

White

•Like other states, an increasing proportion of IL high school graduates will be minority.

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•Currently, black and Hispanic/Latino

students in Illinois (and nationally) are not completing high school at the same rates as their peers.

Black = 49%; Hispanic/Latino = 54%; White & Asian = 85%

•The changing racial/ethnic composition of Illinois’ high school graduates will be even more pronounced if black and Hispanic/Latino completion rates improve.

Source: Uses Manhattan Institute Methodology, based on entering 9th graders, 2000-2001. Taken from Keeping Illinois Competitive. Illinois Status Report STEM Education. See www.keepingillinoiscompetitive.niu.edu, p. 56

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Distribution of the Class of 2002

Percentage Expecting Bachelor’s Degree

or More

Not/Least Ready

Minimally Ready

Somewhat Ready

More Ready

Most Ready

34% 11% 17% 17% 20%

72%

84%

90%

96%

99%

• And many of those who finish high school are not ready for college or the workplace.

• Still, a majority expect to earn a bachelor’s degree.

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Source: Presley, J. and Gong, Y. (2005). The demographics and academics of college readiness in Illinois.

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1/3

1/3

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There are low readiness rates in all

racial/ethnic groups, but especially among black and Latino students.

College Ready:

Black –11%, Latino –17%, White – 48%, Asian – 55%

Not/Least College Ready:

Black – 54%, Latino – 49%; White – 22%; Asian – 17%

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And college readiness is an issue across the regions of the state.

Source: Presley, J. and Gong, Y. (2005). The demographics and academics of college readiness in Illinois. 2005

15Source: Y. Gong and J. Presley. The demographics and academics of college going in Illinois, 2006

Especially at lower readiness levels, Latino (and Native American, not shown) students are less likely to go

straight to college, while Asian students are most likely to continue. (Black student participation is quite similar to

that of white students at each readiness level.)

Readiness Index Latino Black White Asian Total

Not/Least Ready 35% 45% 49% 60% 43%

Minimally Ready 47% 57% 61% 66% 58%

Somewhat Ready 58% 67% 72% 79% 69%

More Ready 76% 83% 79% 84% 79%

Most Ready 85% 83% 84% 86% 84%

Total 49% 55% 70% 78% 64%

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College readiness is very important to college persistence.

Source: IERC, unpublished data, June 2007.

• Most college-ready students (85%) remain enrolled into Year 4.

• But enrolling full time trumps readiness.

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Key Points to Remember– Jobs increasingly need skills related to

postsecondary education.– Illinois’ population is aging, with an increasing

proportion of younger people coming from minority racial/ethnic groups.

– Non-Asian minorities • Are less likely to graduate from high school.• Less likely graduate ready for college and the workplace.

– Non college-ready Latino high school graduates are less likely to enroll in college than other groups.

– Being prepared for college is key (along with enrolling full time) to completing college. We need to get the readiness job done throughout the K-12 years.

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Final Remarks

• The Illinois economy will need a more strongly educated working population – we will need every brain reaching its full potential.

• We must ensure that students have the opportunity and encouragement to maximize their educational potential

• Higher education and K-12 need to work together on getting the signals to students and teachers right.

– Align performance expectations across education sectors– Stronger preparation and higher expectations throughout elementary

school -- more equitable distribution of teacher academic capital.– Better use of students’ time in high school – increase expectations by

the end of 10th grade, and redesign 11th and 12th grades– Work towards eliminating need for remedial education in the

postsecondary sector– Keep college students enrolled to program completion = enroll full time.

• And we are renewing efforts in Illinois. – Gates’ funded ISBE initiative– IBHE Master Planning– P-20 Council

It’s readiness, readiness, readiness