re-open florida · 2 florida at a glance (pre covid-19) 3rd most populated state in america and...

April 20, 2020

Re-open FloridaPresented to Governor Ron DeSantis’ Re-open Florida Task Force

BY:

Mark Wilson, President and CEO, Florida Chamber of Commerce,

Dr. Jerry Parrish, Chief Economist, Florida Chamber Foundation

22

Florida At A Glance (Pre COVID-19)

3rd most populated State in America and growing 900 people every day

810 are from other states and countries

Florida was creating 1 in every 11 NEW U.S. Jobs since 2015

At $1.1 trillion, Florida is world’s 17th largest economy with a Florida 2030

Blueprint goal of 10th by 2030

Adding $1.19 million in income migration per hour (24/7/365)

Unemployment at 2.8% (291,000 unemployed), with 340,800 OPEN and

UNFILLED jobs (Feb 2020)

20th most diversified economy in U.S. with a Florida 2030 Blueprint goal of

Top 12 by 2030

Florida

Industry Diversification by MSA

Diversification Rankings#1 Lakeland-Winter Haven MSA#2 Palm Bay-Melbourne-Titusville MSA#3 Naples-Immokalee-Marco Island MSA#4 Miami-Ft. Lauderdale-West Palm Beach MSA#5 Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford MSA#6 Cape Coral-Ft. Myers MSA#7 Jacksonville MSA#8 Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater MSA#9 Ocala MSA#10 North Port-Sarasota-Bradenton MSA

Data Source: Florida Gulf Coast University, Regional Economic Research Institute. Q3 2019 data

www.theFloridaScorecard.org

44

Reopening in Florida will

need to be more surgical

than in other states for

at least 4 reasons

20% Share of tax receipts coming from Tourism

Share of general revenues coming from Sales

and Use Taxes

of Florida’s population is aged 65 or older

the beginning of the hurricane season in

Florida

79%

21%

6/1

5

2

12

13

7

12

4

4

7

4

11

8

1

3

4

1

3

0

2

0

0

2019 GDP share of total, % 2019 employment share of total, %

17

11

9

7

7

7

6

5

5

4

4

4

3

3

2

2

2

1

1

0

Professional services

Government

Healthcare

Real Estate

Retail

Construction

Wholesale trade

Finance & insurance

Agriculture

Recreation & sports

Manufacturing

Administrative

Accommodation & food (tourism)

Information

Transportation

Other

Management

Utilities

Education

Mining

GDP and jobs share by sector

6

913

736

279

237

Mining

217

Utilities

118

147

Administrative

211

117Real Estate

Retail

93

28

88

76

59

Management

47

40

Agriculture

38

17

9


Wholesale trade

Transportation

1

Education

0

89

Information


Construction

Recreation & sports

Healthcare

Government

Manufacturing

Personal & laundry

Finance

Religious & Labor unions

Repair & maintenance

Total vulnerable jobs in Florida, thousands

Jobs at risk analysis factors the risk of occupations that are performed

in close proximity to other employees and to the publicBased on the analysis of risk profile of more than 800 occupations

7

Sizable impact on small businesses

42%

22%

69%

10%

27%

38%

22%

47%

44%

34%

65%

53%

33%

16%

69%

71%

19%

3%

7%

44%

91%

13%

5%

18%

6%

20%

20%

10%

13%

16%

20%

9%

13%

18%

10%

15%

6%

10%

9%

14%

8%

9%

45%

73%

13%

84%

53%

42%

68%

40%

40%

46%

25%

34%

49%

74%

16%

22%

70%

88%

79%

48%

Construction

Retail

Information

Accommodation & food (Tourism)

Administrative

Healthcare

93

211

Recreation & sports

Transportation

Government

Real Estate

Wholesale trade

Manufacturing

Personal & laundry


Education

Finance & insurance

Religious & Labor unions

59

Repair & maintenance

88

Management

76

Utilities

Mining

9

736

Agriculture

913

279

237

1

217

147

118

117

89

47

40

38

28

17

0

0-99 employees 100-499 employees 500+ employees

52%

12%

36%

500+

3,412,102

0-99

100-499

100% =

Private Industry vulnerable jobs by company size(%, K)

Total private sector

jobs impacted (%)

88

Potential GDP scenarios

100

90

85

110

95

105

Q2Q1 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

History

Pessimistic scenario

Optimistic scenario

Real GDP Growth – COVID-19 CrisisIndexed, 2019 Q4=100

2019 2020

-2.3%

-8.9%

2020 GDP

Growth

% Change

Real GDP, Indexed

2020 Q4

2024 Q2

Time to Return to

Pre-Crisis

Quarter

99

Potential risk by sector

Risk

Utilities

Education

Administrative

Wholesale trade

Manufacturing

Mining

Information

Medium (20-40% jobs at risk) High (40%+ jobs at risk)

Accommodation & food (Tourism)

Recreation & sports

Retail

Real Estate

Construction2

Transportation

Low (<20% jobs at risk)

% of Florida jobs1 19.5 38.837.7

% of Florida GDP1 23.3 38.535.5

Healthcare

Agriculture

Management

Government


Finance & insurance

1. Does not include others

2. Approach will be adapted to different subsectors

1010

Potential risk by sector and company size

Risk

Utilities (21%)

Education (51%)

Administrative (16%)

Wholesale trade (60%)

Manufacturing (54%)

Mining (52%)

Information (30%)

Medium (20-40% jobs at risk) High (40%+ jobs at risk)

Accommodation & food (Tourism) (55%)

Recreation & sports (47%)

Retail (27%)

Real Estate (60%)

Construction2 (87%)

Transportation (32%)

Low (<20% jobs at risk)

Healthcare (58%)

Agriculture (91%)

Management (12%)

Government (0%)

Professional services (66%)

Finance & insurance (26%)

Share of jobs at risk in SMEs (<500 employees) in parentheses

% of Florida jobs119.5 38.837.7

% of Florida GDP11 23.3 38.535.5

Total Employment 1.8M 3.5M3.4M

# SME firms 82K 182K141K

#jobs in firms with <100 employees 24.7% 37.6%24.8%

# jobs in firms with 500+

employees62.9% 50.7%64.6%

#jobs in firms with 100-499 employees 12.4% 11.7%10.6%


2. Approach will be adapted to different subsectors

1111

18 948 90

13

6 8810 4812 16 6414

12

20 22 24 26 44

2

28 30

5

32

3

8634 6636

15

18

17

38 68

14

5040 42 46 52 54

9

56 6058 62

10

7670 72

16

7

780

74 80 82 84 92

6

1

4

8

11

Recreation & sports

Jobs at risks%

Government


Administrative

Agriculture

Construction

Education

Finance & insuranceRetail

Healthcare

Share of GDPPercent

Management

Manufacturing

Mining


Real Estate

Transportation

Utilities

Wholesale trade

Information

Sectors mapped based on the size of the sector, share of jobs at

risk, and risk profile

Size of bubble = # jobs at riskMediumHigh Low

Risk profile

1212

Detailed data by sector

High1 Total jobs Jobs at risk Jobs at risk #jobs in firms with <100 employees #jobs in firms with 100-499 employees #jobs in firms with 500+ employees

Accommodation & food (Tourism) 1,030,395 912,837 88.6% 430,734 132,588 467,073

Recreation & sports 250,811 216,832 86.5% 66,968 51,106 132,737

Retail 1,119,514 736,145 65.8% 242,656 60,815 816,043

Real Estate 194,770 116,505 59.8% 90,793 25,157 78,820

Construction 610,052 278,639 45.7% 418,461 111,937 79,654

Transportation 292,680 118,149 40.4% 63,976 28,508 200,196

Medium1 Total jobs Jobs at risk Jobs at risk #jobs in firms with <100 employees #jobs in firms with 100-499 employees #jobs in firms with 500+ employees

Utilities 23,406 8,843 37.8% 1,750 3,207 18,449

Education 162,715 58,632 36.0% 54,142 28,690 79,883

Administrative 711,316 236,724 33.3% 70,897 39,382 601,036

Wholesale trade 349,279 92,971 26.6% 152,032 57,622 139,625

Manufacturing 372,781 88,812 23.8% 127,137 75,922 169,722

Mining 4,005 952 23.8% 1,770 304 1,930

Information 134,549 27,699 20.6% 26,200 13,682 94,668

Low1 Total jobs Jobs at risk Jobs at risk #jobs in firms with <100 employees #jobs in firms with 100-499 employees #jobs in firms with 500+ employees

Healthcare 1,193,261 211,342 17.7% 456,955 232,813 503,492

Agriculture 2,927 500 17.1% 2,656 - 271

Management 111,031 17,008 15.3% 3,293 10,048 97,690

Government 1,102,818 147,329 13.4% - - 1,102,818

Professional services 605,087 76,148 12.6% 318,232 79,183 207,672

Finance & insurance 384,915 46,997 12.2% 60,399 39,410 285,105


Rank Category

Annual Avg

Receipts

2018-19

$Billion

Avg Percent

2018-19

1 Automotive Dealers 4.00 14.4%

2 General Merchandise Stores 3.71 13.3%

3 Restaurants and Catering Services 2.74 9.8%

4 Lease or Rental of Commercial Real Property 1.91 6.8%

5 Hotel/Motel Accommodations 1.72 6.2%

6 Food & Beverage Stores 1.34 4.8%

7 Building Materials Dealers 1.31 4.7%

8 Wholesale Dealers 1.09 3.9%

9 Amusement & Recreation Services 1.05 3.8%

10 Apparel & Accessory Stores 1.01 3.6%

11 Manufacturing 0.75 2.7%

17 Consumer Electronics, Computers, Music Stores 0.63 2.3%

18 Home Furniture, Furnishings & Equipment 0.59 2.1%

19 Utilities, Electric, Gas, Water, Sewer 0.56 2.0%

20 Rental of Tangible Personal Property 0.41 1.5%

21 Automotive Accessories & Parts 0.37 1.3%

22 Automobile Repair & Services 0.35 1.2%

Total 23.55 84.4%

Tax receipts by industry

1414

For more information contact:

Mark Wilson at [email protected]

Dr. Jerry Parrish at [email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

re-open florida · 2 florida at a glance (pre covid-19) 3rd most populated state in america and...

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