RE and theRE and theClimate Change Challenge:Climate Change Challenge:

Can RE TechnologiesDeliver?

Steven Guilbeault, Greenpeace International

Defining the ChallengeDefining the Challenge

UNFCCC Article 2UNFCCC Article 2

Millions at RiskMillions at Risk

UNFCCC Article 2: ObjectiveUNFCCC Article 2: Objective

The ultimate objective of this Convention is to prevent dangerous anthropogenic

interference with the climate system…in time to…

allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to

ensure that food production is not threatened and to

enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner.

Additional millions at risk Additional millions at risk in 2050sin 2050s

Temperature increase

above 1860

Malaria Hunger Water shortage

Coastal flooding

1oC 2050s 157 8 1252 82oC 2050s 228 12 2240 203oC 2050s 245 13 2847 32

Additional millions at risk Additional millions at risk in 2080sin 2080s

Temperature increase

above 1860

Malaria Hunger Water shortage

Coastal flooding

1oC 2080s 115 6 156 32oC 2080s 225 23 2475 183oC 2080s 292 57 3164 614oC 2080s 334 128 3500 108

That’s Quite A ChallengeThat’s Quite A Challenge

Can RE technologies deliver ALL Can RE technologies deliver ALL of that?of that?

NO!

What RE can’t doWhat RE can’t do Cope with IEA projected increases in Cope with IEA projected increases in

electricity consumption; electricity consumption; Reverse global deforestation trends;Reverse global deforestation trends; Energy efficiency MUST play a major Energy efficiency MUST play a major

role; role; Unsustainable patterns of consumption Unsustainable patterns of consumption

andand

production must be transformed;production must be transformed; TransportTransport

What RE technologies What RE technologies CAN DoCAN Do

By the end of the century, renewables By the end of the century, renewables have the potential to provide nearly have the potential to provide nearly 100% of our energy needs…indeed they 100% of our energy needs…indeed they must if we are to meet the climate must if we are to meet the climate change challenge.change challenge.

Existing RE technologies can provide a Existing RE technologies can provide a significant share of global electricity significant share of global electricity demand by 2020, and a very large share demand by 2020, and a very large share by 2040.by 2040.

Working with the IndustryWorking with the Industry

Greenpeace working with industry?Greenpeace working with industry?

European Wind Energy AssociationEuropean Wind Energy Association

European PV Industry AssociationEuropean PV Industry Association

Solar Thermal Power Industry Solar Thermal Power Industry AssociationAssociation

And others And others

Wind Force 12Wind Force 12

Wind Force 10 to Wind Force 12Wind Force 10 to Wind Force 12

27 fold increase in a decade27 fold increase in a decade

WHAT CAN WIND WHAT CAN WIND DELIVER?DELIVER?

2020 : 11 % of world electricity

2040 : 22 % of world electricity

WIND FUTURESWIND FUTURESGlobal Wind Power will be Global Wind Power will be equivalent to reducing ...equivalent to reducing ...

Global Wind Power will be Global Wind Power will be equivalent to reducing ...equivalent to reducing ...

SOLAR GENERATIONSOLAR GENERATION

Enormous technical potential, but Enormous technical potential, but expensive so far, although costs are expensive so far, although costs are coming down;coming down;

Growth is fast, but starting from a Growth is fast, but starting from a very small base.very small base.

WHAT CAN SOLAR pv WHAT CAN SOLAR pv DELIVER?DELIVER?

2020 : 1 % of global demand

2040 : 26 % of global demand

SOLAR THERMALSOLAR THERMAL

New reportNew report Feasibility study like WF12 and SGFeasibility study like WF12 and SG Working with BOTH European and Working with BOTH European and

US industry associationsUS industry associations ResultsResults

Solar Thermal Can Deliver:Solar Thermal Can Deliver:

Three TechnologiesThree Technologies

Today 2020 2040

Wind 64.5 (twh)

3021 (twh)

12% 8100 (twh)

22%

Solar pv Ca. 2,5 TWh

276 (twh)

1% 9113 (twh)

26%

Solar Thermal

Ca. 0,7 TWh

43 (twh) .16% 3174 (twh)

5%

Total 3340 (twh)

13% 20,387 (twh)

53%

Next (for us)Next (for us) Geothermal: technical potential w/existing Geothermal: technical potential w/existing

technology = 1 X current global energy technology = 1 X current global energy demanddemand

‘‘Modern Biomass’: technical potential Modern Biomass’: technical potential w/existing technology = 40% of current global w/existing technology = 40% of current global energy demand;energy demand;

Marine Energy: technical potential w/existing Marine Energy: technical potential w/existing technology = 5% of current global energy technology = 5% of current global energy demanddemand

Meeting the Challenge?Meeting the Challenge?

Role for government, industry and Role for government, industry and civil societycivil society

Growth rates achievable similar to Growth rates achievable similar to other energy technologies (Fax other energy technologies (Fax machines, PC, mobile phones, etc). machines, PC, mobile phones, etc).

An Important Step on The An Important Step on The Road to Avoiding Road to Avoiding

Dangerous Climate Change Dangerous Climate Change and A Clean Energy Futureand A Clean Energy Future

Steven Guilbeault Steven Guilbeault

Greenpeace InternationalGreenpeace International

www.greenpeace.org