rb 2011-06 population key facts

8/12/2019 RB 2011-06 Population Key Facts

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Population key factsA demographic profile of the Tower Hamlets population

Summary of key findings

The Tower Hamlets resident population at mid-2010

was 237,900 this is the latest estimate from the

Office for National Statistics.

Tower Hamlets is the third most densely populated

borough in England with an average of 12,034

residents per square kilometre.

Tower Hamlets is a fast growing borough. During

2001-2010, the population increased by 36,800 - a rise

of 18 per cent - three times faster than the rate

nationally. Tower Hamlets is the third fastest growing

area in England, after Westminster and the City ofLondon.

a high level of population turnover

0 the rate of change was 237 per

- 11

Tower Hamlets has

and churn. In 2009/1

1000 population thhighest in England.

Consistent with these high levels of population

y, Tower Hamlets has a young population:

37 per cent of the boroughs population is aged

with 20 per cent in England.

mobilit

20-34 compared

Tower Hamlets has the lowest percentage of

ioners in England: seven per cent of the

boroughs population are aged 65 and over,

compared with 16 per cent in England.

pens

One fifth of the boroughs population are aged

under 16 - similar to the percentage in London

d England. However, there are significant

differences by ethnicity: the boroughs

Bangladeshi population has a far higher

proportion of children than the White population.

an

Research Briefing 2011-06August 2011

CONTENTS

About this report 3

Population size and change

Counting the population 4

Population size 5

Population density 6

Population change 2001-2010 7

Drivers of population change 8

Migration 9

Population turnover and churn 10

Population composition

Age 12

Ethnicity 14

Country of birth 16

Faith 18

Ethnicity and age 19

Gender 21

Population growth

Growth 2011-2026 22

Population growth by age 22

Population growth by ethnicity 24

Appendices

A: Further information 26

B: Data tables 28


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Summary Page 2

GLA estimates for 2011 show that 47 per cent of the boroughs population are from BME

groups. This is high compared to the London average (34 per cent) and is the fifth highest

in London, after Newham (70 per cent), Brent (58 per cent), Harrow (53 per cent) and

Redbridge (49 per cent).

Within the boroughs BME population, the largest ethnic group is the Bangladeshipopulation, who make up 30 per cent of all residents. Tower Hamlets has by far the

largest Bangladeshi population in both London and England.

The boroughs BME population has a younger age profile than that of the White population.

Of all residents aged under 20 in the borough - 77 per cent are from BME groups (55 per

cent from Bangladeshi groups and 22 per cent from other BME groups).

Estimates for 2007-09 show that around four out of every ten Tower Hamlets residents

were born outside the UK, just above the average for Inner London (41 vs. 39 per cent).

The 2001 Census identified borough residents from over 130 different countries.

The boroughs largest faith groups are Christian and Muslim. At the time of the 2001

Census, 39 per cent of residents identified themselves as Christian and over one third of

residents said they were Muslim (36 per cent), the majority of whom were Bangladeshi.

In 2010, the gender split in the population is 51 per cent male and 49 per cent female, or

expressed another way, 105 males for every 100 females.

The Tower Hamlets population is expected to grow significantly in the future. Projections

from the GLA predict that the boroughs population will rise from 254,200 (the current

estimate for 2011) up to 326,100 by 2026. This would be a 28 per cent increase, more thandouble the rate of expected increase across London (11 per cent). If realised, it would

make Tower Hamlets one of the fastest growing areas in the capital, alongside Greenwich.

The boroughs population is expected to grow across all age groups, but growth is

strongest in the older age groups, especially among the 50-64 age group which is expected

to grow by 67 per cent between 2011-2026. The number of children (under 16s) is also

expected to grow though less rapidly at 26 per cent. Overall, these changes mean the

Tower Hamlets population will get older over the period.

Over the same period the broad ethnic composition of the population is expected to remain

stable, though the percentage of the population of Bangladeshi origin is expected to fallslightly from 30 to 28 per cent.

Further information: This Briefing was produced by the Councils Corporate Research Unit

(Chief Executives Directorate). Research briefings provide timely and in-depth analysis of

data about Tower Hamlets and are designed to improve the use and sharing of data across

the Partnership. For more information about this Briefing please contact: Lorna Spence

(Research Officer).
mailto:[email protected]:[email protected]


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Analysis Page 3

About this reportThis briefing presents a demographic profile of the Tower Hamlets population, based on

nationally and regionally produced statistics. The analysis has been designed to help deal

with frequently asked questions about the size and composition of the Tower Hamlets

population.

Content and Structure

The report covers the following topics:

Counting the population: issues

Population size and density

Population change

Drivers of population change: migration and natural change

Population turnover and churn

Population composition by age

Population by ethnicity, country of birth and faith

Population by ethnicity and age

Population by gender

Population growth 2011-2026

Population growth by age

Population growth by ethnicity

Appendix A provides further information on: the data sources that underpin the analyses;

advice on their appropriate application; and web-links for those who would like access to the

full datasets.

Appendix B provides a set of data tables that give additional detail for reference purposes.

Copyright and acknowledgments

ONS data presented in this briefing have been reproduced with the permission of the

controller of Her Majestys Stationery Office and are Crown Copyright (2011). GLA

population projections data that are reproduced here are also subject to copyright (

Greater London Authority, 2011).

Note on definitions used in this report

BME:Throughout this report the term BME is used to refer to residents from Black and

minority ethnic groups (ie all ethnic groups except White groups).

Inner/Outer London: The definitions of Inner and Outer London adopted here are based on

the European Statistical areas (NUTS)1which are extensively used by ONS. These may

differ from other definitions of Inner and Outer London used (eg by CLG for local

government finance purposes). Appendix table B1 shows which boroughs fall into Inner and

Outer London using this definition.

1Nomenclature of Units for Territorial Statistics (NUTS) was created by the European Office for Statistics

(Eurostat) as a single hierarchical classification of areas used for statistical reporting across the EU.


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Analysis Page 4

Counting the population - issuesThe issue of exactly how many residents there are living in Tower Hamlets is not a

straightforward one. There are a wide range of different population estimates and

projections available. Indeed, figures relating to the size of the Tower Hamlets population

can vary from 196,106 up to 254,200 depending on the particular data source used, and

importantly, the year which the data relate to (Table 1).

Table 1 Population figures compared - Tower Hamlets

ONS: Census population estimate for 2001 196,106

ONS: Latest ONS mid-year estimate for 2010 237,900

ONS: Population projection for 2011 237,200

GLA: Population projection for 2011 254,200

Source: Office for National Statistics, Greater London Authority (2010 Round Demographic Projections).

Available data include official census and population estimates from the Office for National

Statistics (ONS), as well as independent estimates, such as the Greater London Authority

(GLA)s demographic projections which are widely used across London.

GLA vs. ONS population projections

In the case of Tower Hamlets, independent estimates tend to be higher than official

estimates. Indeed, the GLAs population projection for Tower Hamlets for 2011 is 254,200,

considerably higher than the ONS projection for the same year (237,200). This is because

ONS projections are trend based (ie they assume past trends continue) and do not take

account of planned development or the capacity of different London boroughs to

accommodate population growth. In the case of Tower Hamlets, ONS projections data are

thought to significantly understate the future size of the population. In contrast, GLA

projections take on board development data supplied by London boroughs and,consequently, are thought to provide a more reliable guide to future population growth. For

this reason, GLA projections are used here in preference to ONS projections.

Data used in this briefing

In addition to GLA projections, this report also draws on a range of other population data

sources including the ONS mid-year estimates, the Annual Population Survey and the 2001

Census - which while less timely, is still the best source of data for some subjects.

In practice, no single data source emerges as entirely comprehensive, and the analysis

presented here has been designed to use the best data from each source to build a profile

of the boroughs resident population.As data are drawn from different sources and, in somecases, relate to different years, the borough population totals shown on different tables and

charts may vary.

Appendix A provides further information on the different population data sources available

and comments on their strengths and limitations.


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Analysis Page 5

Population sizeThe ONS 2010 mid-year population estimate for Tower Hamlets is 237,900. This relates to

the population usually resident in the borough2. In terms of population size this makes the

borough about average for London, ranking 15thout of 33 areas when ranked by size (figure

1).

Figure 1 Mid-2010 population estimates, London Boroughs ranked by size

11,700

169,000

169,500

169,700

179,700

190,900

194,100

194,200

208,800

219,200

225,000

227,100

228,000228,500

230,100

235,400

236,100

236,800

237,900

240,100

253,100

256,600

266,100

266,500270,500

284,500

287,000

289,600

294,900

312,400

318,500

345,600

348,200

0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000

City of London

Kingston Upon Thames

Kensington & Chelsea

Hammersmith & Fulham

Barking and Dagenham

Richmond Upon Thames

Islington

Sutton

Merton

Hackney

Haringey

Waltham Forest

BexleyGreenwich

Harrow

Camden

Havering

Hounslow

Tower Hamlets

Newham

Westminster

Brent

Hillingdon

LewishamRedbridge

Lambeth

Southwark

Wandsworth

Enfield

Bromley

Ealing

Croydon

Barnet

Source: Office for National Statistics, 2010 mid-year estimates of population (released June 2011)

Greater London = 7.825m

Inner London = 3.083mOuter London = 4.742m

2The usually resident population includes long-term international migrants (defined as those whoexpress an intention to stay more than a year) but excludes short-term migrants (defined as those whoexpect to stay less than a year).


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Analysis Page 6

Population densityIn common with most Inner London boroughs, the borough has a very high population

density reflecting the fact that it is small in terms of geographical area relative to the size of

the population it holds.

In Tower Hamlets, there were 12,034 residents per square kilometre, more than twice thanas high as the density across London (4,978 residents per km

2), and considerably above the

population density across England (401 residents per km2).

Tower Hamlets has the 3rd highest population density of all local authority areas in England,

after Kensington & Chelsea and Islington (figure 2).

Appendix table B1 provides further information on population density for London boroughs.

Figure 2 Population densit y, London Boroughs ranked by size, 2010

2,080

2,103

2,300

3,325

3,648

3,764

3,994

4,014

4,029

4,229

4,4294,536

4,558

4,795

4,826

4,980

5,552

5,736

5,852

5,934

6,629

7,580

7,605

8,451

9,948

10,345

10,606

10,798

11,499

11,784

12,034

13,061

13,973

0 5,000 10,000 15,000

Bromley

Havering

Hillingdon

Richmond upon Thames

Enfield

Bexley

Croydon

Barnet

City of London

Hounslow

SuttonKingston upon Thames

Harrow

Redbridge

Greenwich


Merton

Ealing

Waltham Forest

Brent

Newham

Lewisham

Haringey

Wandsworth

Southwark

Hammersmith and Fulham

Lambeth

Camden

Hackney

Westminster

Tower Hamlets

Islington

Kensington and Chelsea

Source: Office for National Statistics

Persons per square kilometre


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Analysis Page 7

Population change 2001-2010During 2001-2010, Tower Hamlets was the third fastest growing area in England, after

Westminster and the City of London. Over this period, the boroughs population increased

by 36,800 a rise of 18 per cent. This is three times faster than the rate of growth nationally

(6 per cent) and more than double the London rate (7 per cent).

Over the last year, the boroughs population has risen by 3,100 - a rise of 1.3 per cent.

Table 2: ONS mid-year population est imates for Tower Hamlets 2001-2010

Populationestimate

Increase fromprevious year % increase

2001 201,100 4,000 2.0

2002 207,300 6,300 3.0

2003 209,200 1,800 0.9

2004 212,000 2,800 1.3

2005 214,100 2,100 1.0

2006 217,200 3,100 1.4

2007 221,800 4,600 2.1

2008 226,800 5,000 2.2

2009 234,800 7,900 3.4

2010 237,900 3,100 1.3

2001-2010 36,800 18.3

Source: ONS Mid-Year Estimates 2010 (Released June 2011)

Notes: Following ONS convention, all data are rounded to nearest 100.

Figure 3 Change in population 2001-2010, Tower Hamlets, London and England

18

6 6

10

15

20

87

0

Tower Hamlets Inner London Outer London Greater London England

5

Percentage increase (%), 2001-2010

Source: ONS, mid-year population estimates 2001-2010


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Analysis Page 8

Drivers of population chanTwo main factors drive population natural change whi cess of births

o aths; and migration which et flow of population d out of the bor h.

M on flows include people mo een Tower Hamlets e rest of the UK

( l migration) and people mo een Tower Hamlets e rest of the wo

( tional migration).

Last years population increase of ents in the Boroug driven by natur

chan ring 2009-10, there wer hs and around 1,0 a which led to a

n ase in ulation of 3,500. Migration was marg eg e as mo

p (-300). Overall, these

c

igure 4 shows drivers of change since 2001 and illustrateshow variable migration flows are

e

of this

e level of

and a

Tower

gechange: ch is the ex

ver de is the n into an oug

igrati ving betw and th

interna ving betw and th rld

interna

3,100 resid

e 4,50

h was

00 d

al

ge. Du 0 birt e ths

ativatural incre the pop inally n re

eople left the borough than moved in giving a net outflow of3

hanges led to the population rise of 3,100 (rounded) .

F

over time. Last year, international immigration caused most of the population growth in th

borough, whereas this year natural change has driven growth.

Looking at the period 2001-2010 as a whole, the population increased by 36,800

increase, almost three quarters (72 per cent) was caused by natural change. Th

natural change has also increased over the period, reflecting an increase in births

decrease in deaths. Data on live births show that there were 4,500 live births in

Hamlets during 2009-10 the highest number recorded over this period.

Figure 4 Components of population change in Tower Hamlets, 2001-2010

2,500 2,600 2,800 2,800 2,900 3,000 3,100 3,100 3,500

3,800

-700 -700

200

1,6001,900

4,800

-300

(0)

-2,000

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

2001/02 2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10

Net migration & other changes

Natural change

Source: Office for National Statistics, Mid-year population estimates 2002-2010 (components of change

Population change

3All data are rounded to the nearest hundred, which is why the 3,500-300 outflow does not equate exactly

to the net increase of 3,100.


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Analysis Page 9

Internal and international migration

f

e

al

lting

he international flows were smaller in size than the internal flows, and more residents left to

igure 5 International and internal migration flows, Tower Hamlets, 2009-2010

Caveats about the quality of ONS migration data

ONS data on international migration refer to long-term migrants (ie people who enter or

leave the UK for a period of at least one year). Short-term migrants are not included, and are

also excluded from the mid-year estimate of population. ONS hopes to publish separate

estimates of short term migrants shortly.

More generally, caution is required in relation to interpretation of ONS migration data. Unlike

births and deaths data, migration data are difficult to estimate. ONS use complex modelling

techniques (which draw in various survey and administrative data) to generate the figures,

and there is some concern over their accuracy at local authority level, especially in London.

Net migration figures disguise the significant size of the population flows in and out of the

borough. Figure 5 breaks the figures down for 2009-10. Over the year, ONS estimate that

there was an inflow of population into Tower Hamlets of around 28,000 which was

completely cancelled out by an outflow of 28,300 giving the marginal migration outflow o

300.

As figure 5 illustrates - three-quarters of all population flows relate to internal migration (i

the population that moves in and out of borough to and from the rest of the UK). The intern

inflows and outflows of around 22 and 21 thousand almost cancel each other out resu

in a small net inflow of 1,000 from the rest of the UK.

T

go overseas (-7,900) than the number who arrived from overseas (+6,500) resulting in a net

outflow of -1,400 international migrants.

F

The data are presented here because they are the only data available on migration flows at

borough level, but staff should bear in mind they are estimates not precise measures.

21,500

6,500

-20,500

-7,900

-28,300

1,000

-1,400 -300

-40,000

-20,000

0

Internal migration (w ithin UK) International migration All mi gration

28,000

40,000

20,000

Inflow Outflow Net changePopulation change

Source: Office for National Statistics, Mid-year population estimates 2009-2010 (components of change analysis)


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Analysis Page 10

Population turnover and churnThe extent to which people move around both in and out of an area, and also within area

has important implications for service planning and delivery. This is especially true across

Inner London where migration flows are high. These flows can be measured by pop

turnover rates. Definitions of population turnover and/or churn can vary. Here, two

measu

s,

ulation

res are explored:

ear estimates. While timely, the main

limitation of these rates is that they do not capture the movement of people within areas.

ndard measure, but also include within borough

moves (churn) based on 2001 Census migration figures5. The main limitation of this

2001.

ONS population turnover rates (standard measure)

ONS population turnover rates relate the sum of an areas population inflows and

outflows to the size of its resident population (on a per 1000 population basis). ONS

publishes these figures annually alongside the mid-y

Total turnover rates - including within borough churn (wider measure)

These rates4are based on the ONS sta

measure is it assumes that the level of churn has remained similar to patterns as at

Table 3 shows both measures for all the London boroughs, ranked by highest to lowest, on

the basis of the first measure (ONS turnover rates).

The ONS population turnover rate for Tower Hamlets (2009/10) is 237 per 1000 population.

Three quarters of this population turnover comes from internal migration flows which

account for 176 per 1000 population. International flows account for 61 per 1000 population.

In common with many Inner London boroughs, Tower Hamlets has a high population

turnover rate compared to other local authority areas across England. Tower Hamlets ranks11

thout of 354 English local authority areas6and 8thhighest in London. Inner London

boroughs and university towns, such as Oxford and Cambridge, top the list of high

population turnover areas.

Once within borough moves are also considered, overall population turnover in Tower

Hamlets rises to 289 per 1000 population (ie around 29 per cent of the borough population

moved in a year7). On this measure, Tower Hamlets is also ranked 8

thhighest out of 33 in

London.

4These rates are based on GLA methodology which has been replicated here using the latest ONSrnover data for 2009-10 and 2001 Census data.tu

52001 Census figures provide an estimate of the number of borough residents who lived elsewhere in the

borough one year prior to the Census date, this figure is expressed as a proportion of the Censuspopulation at that time to produce a within borough movers per 1000 population. Total turnover iscalculated by adding this figure to the ONS population turnover figure.6

Local authority rankings are based on district/unitary areas in place prior to the 2009 re-organisation ofEnglish local government.7This total turnover figure is an approximation of the proportion of the population who have moved in a

year.


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Analysis Page 11

Table 3 Population turnover and churn , London boroughs, 2009-10

ONS populationturnover rates 09-10

Ranked in order of

Sum of all

Turnover

Withinborough

Totalpopulation

turnover

highest to lowest totalMid 2010population

flows inand out of

per 1000population

movers per1000 pop

(2001)

rates

(includingchurn), per1000 pop.turnover estimate area

H 343ammersmith & Fulham 169,700 49,500 292 51

City of London 11,700 3,200 273 22 295

Islington 194,100 52,400 270 41 311

Wandsworth 289,600 77,700 268 63 332

Camden 235,400 61,800 262 55 318

Westminster 253,100 62,200 246 52 298

Lambeth 284,500 69,600 245 48 292

Tower Hamlets 237,900 56,400 237 53 289

Haringey 225,000 52,200 232 50 282

Kensington & Chelsea 169,500 37,100 219 46 265

Southwark 287,000 61,300 214 48 261

Hackney 219,200 44,500 203 48 251

Newham 240,100 48,600 203 51 254

Brent 256,600 50,700 198 50 248

Ealing 318,500 60,000 188 50 239

Merton 208,800 38,700 185 42 227

Hounslow 236,800 43,500 184 48 232

Greenwich 228,500 40,700 178 52 230

Lewisham 266,500 47,400 178 52 229Kingston upon Thames 169,000 29,400 174 57 230

Waltham Forest 227,100 39,400 173 53 226

Richmond upon Thames 190,900 31,000 162 51 213

Barnet 348,200 52,500 151 48 199

Redbridge 270,500 40,100 148 38 186

Harrow 230,100 33,500 146 41 187

Barking & Dagenham 179,700 25,800 144 42 185

Hillingdon 266,100 37,000 139 52 192

Enfield 294,900 39,800 135 51 186

Croydon 345,600 43,600 126 54 180

Sutton 194,200 21,500 111 49 160Bromley 312,400 32,900 105 44 150

Bexley 228,000 21,600 95 39 134

Havering 236,100 19,900 84 37 121

Source: ONS 2010 mid-year estimates change analysis; 2001 Census (theme table T33 on migration)


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Analysis Page 12

Population by ageC relatively young

population. Figures 6 and 7 illustrate the distinct e Tower Hamlets pop

in comparison to London and England.

T a very entrat side dult a( of m at 20 red r

c ndon, and 20 pe d. This is also significantly the In

L 32 . Towe ets has the third highest proportion o

r age group in d after ty of Lon and Cam ge.

onsistent with its high levels of population mobility, Tower Hamlets has a

age profile of th ulation

ge groupwith 26 pe

ner

ower Hamlets hasie 20-34): 37 per cent

ent in Lo

high concthe Tower H

r cent in Englan

ion of relets popul

nts withinion is aged

the young a-34 compaa

above

ondon average (37 vs. per cent) r Haml f

esidents in this Englan , the Ci don brid

Table 4 Population comp age r Hamlets, London & land, 201

Per age totals

osition by , Towe Eng 0

cent (%)

Tower

HamletsInnerndonLo

OLon

GreaterLon Engla

uterdon don nd

ALL AGES (= 100%) 1100 100 100 100 00

Summary age groups

0-15 20 18 20 20 19

16-64 73 73 66 69 65

65 and over 7 9 13 12 16

0-19 24 22 25 24 24

20-34 37 32 22 26 20

35-59 29 33 35 34 34

60 and over 9 13 18 16 22

Base population 237,900 3,08 4,741, 7,825,200 52,234,03,300 900 00

Source: ONS Mid-Year Estima R leas )tes 2010 ( e ed June 2011

C ely, Tower Hamlets l st n of pe ners acro ll local

a land: f th gh population are age nd over

c d with 12 per cent on per cent in England.

T tion of children a 16 in rough po tion is 20 - similar to

that of London and England 1 per spective hough the borough doe

h htly larger popula er 5 cent) than in London (7 per cent) an

E (6 per cent).

T e however significa n es b city across the age profile of Tower

H The boroughs Ba opu as a high rtion of children com d

t s

at follow.

Appendix tables B2 and B3 provide further data on the population by age and gender.

onvers has the owe proportio nsio ss a

uthority areas in Eng 7 per cent o e borou d 65 a

ompare across Lond and 16

he propor ged under the bo pula per cent

(20 and 9 cent re ly), t s

ave a slig tion of und s (8 per d

ngland

here ar nt differe c y ethni

amlets. ngladeshi p lation h propo pare

o a relatively low proportion in the White population. This is explored further in the section

th


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Analysis Page 13

Figure 6 Population by age, Tower Hamlets compared with England, 2010

20 15 10 5 0 10 15 20

5-9

-19

-24

25-29

40-44

75-79

5

0-4

10-14

15

20

30-34

35-39

80-84

85+

45-49

50-54

55-59

60-64

65-6970-74

Tower Ha letsm Englandercentage of p at ion (%)


Figure 7 Population by age, To Hamlets compared w London, 2

P opul

wer ith 010

20 15 10 5 0 5 10 15 20

0-4

55-59

60-64

65-69

70-74

75-79

80-84

85+

5-9

10-14

15-19

20-24

25-29

30-34

35-39

40-44

45-49

50-54

Tower Hamlets London Percentage of population (%)



14/35

Analysis Page 14

Population by ethnicityGLA population projections provide useful inter-censal estimates of the population by ethnic

group. Estimates presented below relate to projected population figures for 2011.

Just under half of the boroughs population are from Black and minority ethnic (BME) groups8.

Tower Hamlets has the fifth highest percentage of BME residents in London (47 per cent) -after Newham (70 per cent), Brent (58 per cent), Harrow (53 per cent) and Redbridge (49 per

cent) compared to a London average of 34 per cent.

Figure 8 Percentage of population from BME groups, London Boroughs, 2011

8BME is used to refer to residents from Black and minority ethnic groups (ie all ethnic groups except White

groups).

8

12

13

14

17

22

22

23

24

24

26

28

29

30

31

31

3233

36

38

40

40

42

42

43

4647

49

53

58

70

0 20 40 60 80

Havering


Bromley

Bexley

Sutton

Wandsworth

Kensington and Chelsea

Kingston upon Thames

Hammersmith and Fulham

City of London

Islington

Westminster

Camden

Merton


Hillingdon

EnfieldBarnet

Lambeth

Southwark

Hackney

Lewisham

Croydon

Waltham Forest

Hounslow

EalingTower Hamlets

Redbridge

Harrow

Brent

Newham

Source: Greater London Authority, 2010 Round Ethnic Group Population Projections

(SHLAA scenario released Feb 2011)

Inner London = 36%

Outer London = 33%

Greater London = 34%

34

35

Greenwich

Haringey


15/35

Analysis Page 15

Within the boroughs BME population, the largest single ethnic group is the Bangladeshi

am

here Bangladeshi residents account for 11 per cent of the population. Bangladeshi

ze (ie numbers) and the percentage of

e population that were Bangladeshi . In 2001, 23 per cent of the Bangladeshi population

population, who account for 30 per cent of all residents. Tower Hamlets has by far the

largest Bangladeshi population in London; the second largest population is in Newh

w

residents in Tower Hamlets make up 40 per cent of the Bangladeshi population in London9.

At the time of the 2001 Census, Tower Hamlets also had the largest Bangladeshi population

in England and Wales in terms of both population si10

th

in England and Wales lived in Tower Hamlets.

Table 5 Population by ethnic group, Tower Hamlets and London, 2011

Tower Hamlets Greater London

Number of

residents % totalNumber of

residents % total

Al l ethnic groups 254,200 100 7,900,500 100White 135,500 53 5,188,400 66

Bangladeshi 75,300 30 188,700 2

Indian 5,500 2 529,900 7

Pakistani 1,600 1 192,100 2

Other Asian 4,600 2 264,700 3

Chinese 8,400 3 115,500 1

Black Caribbean 4,700 2 371,200 5

Black African 7,200 3 509,800 6

Black Other 3,900 2 218,200 3

Other 7,500 3 321,900 4

All BME groups 118,700 47 2,712,100 34

Source: Greater London Authority, 2010 Round Ethnic Group Population Projections

Indian, Pakistani and other Asian ethnic groups - together - comprise 5 per cent of the

population and Chinese groups make up 3 per cent of the population. Residents from Black

ethnic groups make up 6 per cent of the population. GLA ethnicity data do not identify Somali

residents separately. However, a review of different estimates carried out by the Councils

Strategy and Performance team in 2010, suggests that the size of the Somali population in

Tower Hamlets is likely to be somewhere between 2-3 per cent of the population11.

Residents from White ethnic groups comprise 53 per cent of residents. No further breakdown

of the White population is available from GLA data but the 2001 Census, while less timely, is

able to provide some intelligence on this. In 2001, White groups made up just over 51 per cent

of the Tower Hamlets population: 43 per cent were from White British groups, 2 per cent were

White Irish and 7 per cent were from other White groups. More detailed data on the size of

different ethnic groups in Tower Hamlets will be available in 2012 when the 2011 Census

results emerge.

GLA Ethnic Group Population Projections for 2011 (2010 Round, SHLAA).9

10GLA, Bangladeshis in London, DMAG Briefing 2004/16.

rofile of the population (25.10.10).

11LBTH, Strategy and Performance team: The Somali population in Tower Hamlets: estimating the size

and age p


16/35

Analysis Page 16

Population by country of birthTo complement data on ethnicity, information on country of birth provides further detail on

diversity within the boroughs population. Estimates from the Annual Population Survey

(2007-2009), show that around one in every three Londoners were born outside the U

This group is hugely diverse and includes older residents who migrated to London years

K.

go, alongside more recent arrivals.

ent and Newham top the list in each of

ese boroughs, just over half the population were born outside the UK.

igure 9 Percentage of population bo London borou

a

In Tower Hamlets, 41 per cent of borough residents were born outside the UK, just above

the average for Inner London (39 per cent). Tower Hamlets is ranked 8thhighest out of the

32 boroughs12

on this measure. Westminster, Br

th

F rn outside UK by gh, 2007-2009

12Estimates are not available for the City of London.

9

11

13

16

23

0 20 40 60

Havering

Bexley

Bromley

Sutton


Source: Office for National Statistics, Annual Population Survey, 2007-2009. To improve reliability of the

survey estimate

Inner London = 39%

Outer London = 30%


25

26

26

27

27

30

30

33

32

Kingston upon Thames

Greenwich

Croydon

Hillingdon


Islington

Lewisham

Barnet

33

34

3

3

36

36

37

38

39

40

41

41

4

5

44

44

53

Southwark

orth

Enfield

Redbri e

Merton

Lambeth

Hackney

Fulham

ounslow

Haringey

er Hamlets

Camden

Harrow

Ealing

and Chelsea

NewhamBrent

inster

% of res lation bor K

s, three year averages were used, based on survey data for the periods: 2007 (Jan-Dec), 2008

(Jan-Dec), 2009 (Sept 08-Oct 09).

46

5153

Waltham Forest

Wandsw

dg

Hammersmith and

H

Tow

Kensington

Westm

ident popu n outside the U


17/35

Analysis Page 17

2001 Census data, while less timely, remain the best source for detailed data on the size of

ge of countries with significant populations from Asia,urope and Africa. In total, the Census counted at least 130 different migrant populations

individual migrant populations in the borough (Table 6). Residents from Bangladesh are, by

far, the largest single migrant group who comprised just over half (53 per cent) of the

boroughs migrant population in 2001.

The other half were from a diverse ranE

resident in the borough (ie populations of ten or more people born in one country).

Table 6 Population by count ry of bir th, Tower Hamlets, 2001

Population % total

Al l residents 196,103 100

Born in UK 128,127 65

England 122,230 62

Scotland 2,934 1Wales 1,834 1

Northern Ireland 983 1

UK (not specified) 146 0

Born outside UK: by area 67,976 35

Europe 9,717 5

Africa 7,148 4

Asia 43,250 22

North America 3,622 2

South America 712 0

Oceania & other 3,527 2

Born outside UK: top 20 countries

Bangladesh 35,820 18

Republic of Ireland 2,692 1

Australia 1,568 1

Somalia 1,353 1

New Zealand 1,213 1

Vietnam 1,147 1

South Africa 1,146 1

India 1,091 1

Nigeria 1,012 1

Germany 1,005 1Hong Kong 857


18/35

Analysis Page 18

Migrant populations that numbered more than one thousand residents included those born

in: Ireland, Australia, Somalia, New Zealand, Vietnam, South Africa, India, Nigeria, and

Germany.

Census figures relate to a snapshot of the population in 2001, and may understate the

t update

f the size and profile of the boroughs newer migrant populations.

Population by faithC the ethnic profile of the population hs largest faith e

Chr lim. At the time of the 2001 Censu e ent of residents id tified

t Christian and over one third of resid Muslim per cent).

1 of residents said they had no religion, an r cent did not answe e Census

q (which was voluntary) so their faith is unkno

O presented in the borough include: dhists, Jews, Hindus and Sikhs

who together accounted for 3 per cent of the population. Sm ler faith groups were not

i ensus data.

current size of some populations in the borough, especially groups whose migration patternshave changed markedly since 2001 (eg those from countries such as Poland or Somalia).

2011 Census data are expected in Summer 2012 and these will provide an importan

o

onsistent with

istian and Mus

, the boroug

s, 39 p

groups ar

enr c

hemselves as ents said they were (36

4 per cent d 7 pe r th

uestion wn.

ther faith groups re Bud

al

dentified separately by the C

Table 7 Population by faith , Tower Hamlets, 2001 Census

Number % total

Al l persons 196,106 100

Christian 75,783 39

Muslim 71,389 36

No Religion 27,823 14

Religion not stated 14,591 7

Buddhist 1,938 1

Jewish 1,831 1

Hindu 1,544 1

Sikh 682 ~0

Any other religion 525 ~0

Source: Census 2001 (table ST103). Note: The Census qu as voluntary and the wordingestion wwas: What is your religion?

A f the Census, Tower Hamlets had by far - the highest concentration of Muslimr gland and Wales

13. Newham had the s highest percenta t 24 per

c

In terms of population numbers, Tower Hamlets had th largest Muslim p lation in

E d Wales, following Birmingham and Bradfo whose Muslim pop ons were

l number, but represented a smaller proportion sidents (14 and 16 cent

r ly).

In Tower e is a close relationship betwee d ethnicity - in 1, the

m ts (87 per cent) were Ban i.

t the time oesidents in En econd ge a

ent.

e third opu

ngland an rd ulati

arger in of re per

espective

Hamlets, ther n faith an 200

ajority of Muslim residen gladesh

13

Greater London Authority, Muslims in London, DMAG Briefing 2004-19.


19/35

Analysis Page 19

Population by ethnicity and ageTo fully understand the demography of Tower Hamlets, it is important to explore the

characteristics of the White and Bangladeshi populations in more detail.

Overall, the boroughs BME population is far younger than the White population, and,

consequently, the majority of children in Tower Hamlets are from BME groups (Table 8).

Table 8 Composition of the population by ethnic group, Tower Hamlets, 2011

Percentage totals (%)

White BME Bangla-% of age

group from BMETOTAL groups groups deshi groups

Al l ages=100% 100 100 100 100 47

0-19 24 11 40 45 77

20-34 37 46 27 25 34

35-49 22 24 20 18 42

50-64 9 11 8 7 3965+ 7 9 5 5 34

Population (base) 254,200 135,500 118,700 75,300

Source: Greater London Authority, 2010 Round Ethnic Group Population Projections (SHLAAscenario released February 2011)

O m BME groups (55 per cent

from Bangladeshi groups and 22 per cent from other BME g At the oth f the

a n, White residents predominate and account for two thirds of the bo hs

p d 65 and over.

F trates these patterns further by contrasting the ofile of the Bangladeshi

a ns in the borough - who together - account for 83 per cent of th

p .

Figure 10 Population by age, White & Bangladeshi group er Hamlets, 2011

f all residents aged 0 to 19 in the borough 77 per cent are fro

roups). er end o

ge distributio

age

roug

opulation

igure 10 illus age pr

nd White populatio e

opulation

s, Tow

20 15 10 5 5 10 15 20

15 - 19

54

59

0 - 4

5 - 9

10 - 14

20 - 24

25 - 29

30 - 34

35 - 39

40 - 44

45 - 49

50 -

55 -

60 - 64

65 - 69

70 - 74

75 - 79

80 and over

White population Bangladeshi population

Source: Greater London Authority, 2010 Round Ethnic Group Population Projections (SHLAA scenario released February 2011)

lling into each age groupPercentage of population (%) fa

Age groups


20/35

Analysis Page 20

The Bangladeshi population has a far younger age profile than the White population: 45 per

t of the

nd over,

ompared with nine per cent of the White population.

atterns and fertility rates. GLA analysis of historical Census data suggests that the most

s tent with

the current age structure (as many migrants ty dults and go on to

have families of their own). In addition, Ban desh en te

larger families than Whit ts15

W hite and B deshi p h a stron sentation of res

w e young adult age gr s (typical of Inner Lo n) - this c ntration is part rly

p d in the White pop ion.Com ed with don, the wer Hamlets Whit

p has a distinctive p e that is ily conc trated in the 9 age group re

t 7 per cent) of the Tower Haml White population is a d 0-39 compared with

3 r cent across Lo

cent of the Bangladeshi population are aged under 20 compared with only 11 per cen

White population. Five per cent of the Bangladeshi population is aged 65 a

c

The young age structure of the Bangladeshi population is likely to reflect both migration14

p

ignificant migrant flow from Bangladesh to London was during the 1980s, consis

pically move as young

ents wit

a

ildrgla i resid h ch nd to have

e residen .

hile both the W angla opulations ave g repre idents

ithin th

ronounce

oup ndo con e icula

ulat par Lon To e

opulation rofil heav en 20-3 : mo

han h

pe

alf (5 ets ge 2

7 ndon.

Table 9 Age profile of e p , T mlets compared withthe Whit opulation ower HaLondon, 2011

TowerHamlets London London London

TOTAL (=100%) 100 100 100 100

Inner Outer Greater

Age 0-19 11 16 21 19

Age 20-39 57 47 31 37

Age 40-59 21 22 26 25Age 60 and over 12 14 22 19

Base population:white residents 135,500 2,034,000 3,154,400 5,188,400

Source: Greater London Authority, 2010 Round Ethnic Group Population Projections(SHLAA scenario released February 2011)

Similarly, the boroughs White population has proportionately fewer children and older

residents compared to the London average. This - in part reflects the typical age profile of

the White population in Inner London which is skewed towards the young adult age gr

(Table 9).

As was shown earlier, the overall percentage of children in the boroughs population is

similar to that in London, and in England. This is because the relatively low proportion of

children in the White population is offset by the high proportion of children in the

Bangladeshi population. The figures emphasise the importance of considering data on

ethnicity when profiling the boroughs population as aggregate data often mask

considerable differences between groups and potential service users for different public

services. Appendix table B4 provides further detail on GLA population projections data for

2011 split by ethnic group and age.

oups

14Greater London Authority, The World in a City, DMAG Briefing 2005/06

15Greater London Authority, Bangladeshis in London, DMAG Briefing 2004/16.


21/35

Analysis Page 21

Population by genderThe ONS mid-year estimates for 2010 show that the gender split of the Tower Hamlets

population is 51.2% male to 48.8% female or expressed another way, 105 males f

100 females. This is unusual as most areas have a gen

or every

der ratio that slightly favours women

r one that is balanced; across England, the gender ratio is 97 males per 100 females.

ets, Inner London and England, 2010

o

On the males per 100 females measure, Tower Hamlets ranks 11th highest across 354

local authority areas across England. The City of London has the highest male to female

rate at 121 males per 100 females.

Figure 11 Gender ratio by age, Tower Haml

120

140

160

Tower Hamlets

Inner London

England

Males per 100 females

0

20

40

60

80

100

0-4 5-9 10-14 1 20-24 25-29 30-34 40-44 45-49 5 55-59 60-64 65-6 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+

Source: ONS mid-year estimates of population (2010)

5-19 35-39 0-54 9

Age group

T ups.

N

arly thirties, after which the balance changes to a female surplus which increases with age.

re

mlets, patterns are quite different as the male surplus runs to much higher agesnd there is far more volatility in the ratio. In the borough, men outnumber females

,

9

oups

ct the gender and age profile of the Inner London

population, where men also outnumber women in the 30-44 age group. However, as the

chart shows these patterns are much more pronounced in Tower Hamlets.

here are some significant differences in the gender balance across different age g

ationally, males tend to outnumber females at birth and maintain this advantage till the

ro

e

This is illustrated by the fairly smooth curve in the gender ratio for England by age (figu

11).

In Tower Haa

significantly within the 35-54 age group. For example, among the population aged 40-44

there are 138 males for every 100 women.

Conversely, women outnumber men among the 20-24 age group, and again in the 65-6

age group. In common with most areas, women also outnumber men in the 80+ age gr

though in Tower Hamlets this happens to a lesser extent.

These patterns in some part refle


22/35

Analysis Page 22

Population growth 2011-2026te

ower Hamlets population will grow from 254,200 in 2011 up to 326,100 in 2026, a rise of

e expected increase across London (11 per cent), and if

alised, would make Tower Hamlets the fastest growing area in the capital alongside

Figure 12 GLA population projections for Tower Hamlets 2011-2026

Tower Hamlets has seen rapid population growth in recent years, and projections indica

that the pace of growth is expected to continue.

The latest population projections from the Greater London Authority16, suggest that the

T71,900 and a percentage increase of 28 per cent (figure 12).

This is more than twice as fast as th

re

Greenwich (Appendix table B5 shows the projections at borough level).

254,200283,800

312,400326,100

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

2011 2016 2021 2026

Source: Greater London Authority: 2010 Round Demographic Projections (SHLAA scenario, released February 2011)

% growth 2011-2026

Tower Hamlets = 28%Inner London = 14%


Population growth by ageIn terms of numbers, the boroughs population is expected to grow across all age groups,

but growth is strongest in the older age groups, especially among those aged 50-64. This

population is expected to increase in size from 24,100 up to 40,200 over the period 2011-

026 - a percentage increase of 67 per cent. Over the same period, the 35-49 age group

significantly over the period though less fast:

e number of under 16s is predicted to rise from 51,500 up to 65,100 between 2011 and

y

ehind these analyses.

2

and the over 65s group are also expected to show strong growth (45 per cent and 35 percent respectively).

The child population is also expected to rise

th

2026 a percentage increase of 26 per cent. Figures 13 and 14 illustrate these changes b

showing the rise in population across each age group, in terms of both numbers and the

percentage increase. Appendix table B6 provides the data b

Greater London Authority: 2010 Round Demographic Projections, SHLAA (released February 2011).16


23/35

Analysis Page 23

Figure 13 Population growth by age (numbers), Tower Hamlets, 2011-2026

Figure 14 Population growth by age (% increase), Tower Hamlets, 2011-2026

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000

80000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Source: Greater London Authority; 2010 Round Demographic Projections (SHLAA scenario, released February 2011)

Age 35-49

Age 25-34

Age 0-15

Age 50-64

Age 16-24

Age 65 and over

28

45

35

67

40

60

260

80

nd

over

8 120

All persons Age 0-15 Age 16-24 Age 25-34 Age 35-49 Age 50-64 Age 65 a

2

% increase in population: 2011-2026

S ce: Greater London Authority; 2010 Round Demographic Projections (SHLAA scenario, released February 2011)

%

our


24/35

Analysis Page 24

These changes by age group mean that, overall, the Tower Hamlets population is expected

ghto get older over the next fifteen years. Figure 15 shows the percentage of the borou

population falling into each age group in 2011 and in 2026. This shows the ageing on of the

population as the peak of residents currently in their late twenties and early thirties reach

their forties and fifties by 2026.

Figure 15 Tower Hamlets population prof ile by age, 2011 and 2026

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90+

2011 2026

Percentage of population (%) in each age group

Source: Greater London Authority; 2010 Round Demographic Projections (SHLAA scenario, released February

Age (single year of age)

Population growth by ethnicityAs the boroughs population grows, the broad ethnic composition of the population is

expected to remain fairly stable (Figure 16 and Table 11). Over the period 2011-2026, the

White population is expected to rise by 38,700 a rise of 29 per cent. The percentage of the

borough population who belong to White groups is expected to remain the same over the

period (at just over half - 53 per cent).The Bangladeshi population is expected to grow by

15,800 during 2011 to 2026 a percentage increase of 21 per cent. The percentage of the

boroughs population who are Bangladeshi is expected to fall from 30 to 28 per cent.

The percentage of the boroughs population who belong to other BME17groups is expected

to rise from 17 to 19 per cent. Within this group, there is considerable variation in the rate of

population growth across ethnic groups. The Chinese population has the fastest growth rate

and is expected to grow from 8,400 up to 13,900 (a percentage rise of 67 per cent) over the

period. In contrast, the boroughs Black Caribbean population, which has a much older age

profile, has the lowest growth rate of only 7 per cent.

The difference in population growth rates reflects differences in age structures, fertility rates

and migration patterns across ethnic groups - all of which feed into the GLAs predictions.

17In this context, Other BME groups refers to all Black and minority ethnic groups except the

Bangladeshi group.


25/35

Analysis Page 25

Figure 16 Ethnic composit ion of the population, Tower Hamlets, 2011-2026

White ethnic groups Bangladeshi ethnic groups Other BME groupsPopulation

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

Source: Greater London Authority, 2010 Round Ethnic Group Population Projections (SHLAA scenario released February 2011)

Year

Table 11 Population projections by ethnic group, Tower Hamlets, 2011-2026

Projectedtion

Composition(% totals)

Population growth2011-2026popula

2011 2026 2011 2026 Number increase%

Al l groups 254,200 326,100 100 100 71,900 28

White groups 135,500 174,300 53 53 38,700 29

All BME groups 118,700 151,800 47 47 33,100 28

- Bangladeshi 75,300 91,100 30 28 15,800 21

- Other BME groups: 43,400 60,700 17 19 17,300 40

Indian 5,500 7,900 2 2 2,400 45 Pakistani 1,600 2,000 1 1 300 19

Other Asian 4,600 6,500 2 2 1,900 43

Black African 7,200 8,800 3 3 1,600 22

Black Caribbean 4,700 5,100 2 2 300 7

Black Other 3,900 5,000 2 2 1,100 27

Chinese 8,400 13,900 3 4 5,600 67

Other 7,500 11,600 3 4 4,100 54

Source: Greater London Authority, 2010 Round Ethnic Group Population Projections (SHLAAscenario released February 2011)


26/35

Appendices Page 26

Appendix A: Further information about population data

Figure A1 A GUIDE TO DATA SOURCES ON POPULATION FOR TOWER HAMLETS

Source and description Frequency & latest

data (as at July 2011)

Uses / Pros and Cons

Census/population estimates

Census of population

Detailed small area data on the

demographic and socio-

economic characteristics of the

population.

The Census is carried

out every ten years.

2001 Census data are

latest available; 2011

data are expected

2012.

Key benchmark for ONS population estimation.

Inform decisions about public sector funding.

Used for local service planning.

Pros: Good for small area analyses and for

exploring detailed population characteristics

Cons: out of date

ONS mid-year estimates

(MYEs)

* Official estimates of resident

population for local authorities,

available by age and gender.

Frequency: annual.

Latest data are the

2010 MYE. Data are

usually released in

Summer and relate to

the population as at the

previous year.

Used for statistical returns to government &

input to calculation of some PIs.

Population denominator for rates where

comparator data needed for other LAs.

Pros: Useful for comparing Tower Hamlets with

rest of England.

Cons: some controversy over accuracy,

particularly of migration components.

Population projections*

ONS sub-nati

p

onal

roject ions (SNPP)

Official ONS projections, by

a

2033, for all LAs in England.

Frequency: usually

every two years.

Latest available: 2008-

cover year

Used by CLG and other government

departments for funding allocation.

Pros: none (from LA perspective).

ount is

d develop

y opulati

Ham commended.

*

ge and gender.From 2008 to based SNPP which Cons: SNPP are trend based and no acc

s 2008-2033 taken of expecte

understates likel

lets - not re

ment, significantly

on growth in Towerp

G A population projections

* r boroughs by age and

g .

* ta by ward, ethnic group,

l ousehold.

*

d

Freq

Late Ro

trat ic

A t.

x ly y L ugh

g urpo y G

s ic ing.

nly so e of ethn roup projections.

Pr od o parin Hamlets to

ot orou , or iling.

Co t e for ondo

L

Fo

ender, to 2031

Da

abour force and h

Takes account of

evelopment data.

uency: Ann

st: 2010

ual.

und

Projections consistent

with the S eg

Housing Land

Availability

ssessmen

Used e

service

tensive

plannin

b

p

ondon boro

ses, and b

s for

LA for

trateg plann

O urc ic g

os: go for c m g Tower

her b ghs and f ethnic prof

ns: No availabl areas outside L n.

T

C Model

* tailed

p ets,

d g

l

M ntl

re w o

exp te 2

De d se e annin he borough

Ba on ti velop rmation.

Pro ailore m ly analy le for sm

area and lin service ing.

Con data n lable y, gende

for a as ou e ower H

ower Hamlets Population

hange and Growth

Designed to provide de

rojections for Tower Haml

own to local area level usin

atest development data.

odel curre

v

y under

iew ne utputs

ected la 011.

taile

s

rvic

m

pl g within t .

ed ely de ment info

ss: t

s

d/ti

ked

e

to

es possib

plann

all

s: ot avai by ethnicit r or

re tsid T amlets.

* Population projections are quite dis po estimate while u tion estimates take on boar

aths and d mi p tterns, ojectio ke ass s about th

n of these tre e f

tinct from pulation s: pop la d

actual changes in births, de estimate gration a pr ns ma umption e

likely scale and directio nds in th uture.


27/35

Further informationFurther information Page 27

Web-links and contacts for further information

The ONS Mid-year estimatesThe latest MYEs (2010) for local authorities are available via the ONS website:http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=15106

Also, ONS has produced a useful spreadsheet based tool that provides ability to produceuseful summary tables and charts for different areas, and importantly, access to single yearof age data (not published as part of the standard outputs):http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=14060&More=N

GLA projections

The GLA makes its population projections available on the GLA datastore website. Outputs

include a customised excel spreadsheet, which can be use to produce tables for different

age groups, as well as access to a variety of summary reports.

http://data.london.gov.uk/datastore/package/gla-demographic-projections

ONS sub-national population projections

The Office for National Statistics produces population projections for local authority areas

but these are not widely used (in the case of Tower Hamlets they are thought to understate

future population growth) see Figure A1. While ONS projections are not generally

recommended, they are sometimes required for official returns or monitoring. They can be

downloaded from the ONS website:http://www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/Product.asp?vlnk=997&Pos=1&ColRank=1&Rank=272

Tower Hamlets Planning for Population Change and Growth (PPCG) model

Within Tower Hamlets, the Partnership has also developed its own projections model which

generates tailored data for more detailed service planning at a local level. The model usesthe most up to date development data and provides very timely estimates. The model is

currently under review so is not covered in this report. Future outputs are expected to be

available later in 2011. For more information about the PPCG model and current outputs,

please contact [email protected] the Strategic Planning team.

For more information about the pros and cons on using different population data, see

Research briefing 2010-03 A guide to population data.

http://towernet/Intranet/staff_services/business_planning/corporate_policy/corporate_research_briefings.aspx
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=15106http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=14060&More=Nhttp://data.london.gov.uk/datastore/package/gla-demographic-projectionshttp://www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/Product.asp?vlnk=997&Pos=1&ColRank=1&Rank=272mailto:[email protected]://towernet/Intranet/staff_services/business_planning/corporate_policy/corporate_research_briefings.aspxhttp://towernet/Intranet/staff_services/business_planning/corporate_policy/corporate_research_briefings.aspxmailto:[email protected]://www.statistics.gov.uk/StatBase/Product.asp?vlnk=997&Pos=1&ColRank=1&Rank=272http://data.london.gov.uk/datastore/package/gla-demographic-projectionshttp://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=14060&More=Nhttp://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/Product.asp?vlnk=15106


28/35

Appendices Page 28

ppendix B: Data tablesAB1. Population size and population density, London Boroughs and England, 2010

3. Population by age, Tower Hamlets, London and England, 2010

ifferent years,

tion totals shown on different tables may differ.

B2 Population by age and gender, Tower Hamlets, 2010

BB4. GLA population projections by age and ethnicity for 2011B5. GLA projections for London Boroughs, 2011-2026B6. GLA population projections by age group, Tower Hamlets, 2011-2026

ote: As data are drawn from different sources, and in some cases, relate to dN

the borough popula


29/35

Appendices Page 29

B1 Population size and densit y, London Boroughs and England, 2010Population

sq. km

30,279 401

estimate 2010 Area (sq km) People per

England 52,234,000 1

Greater London 7,825,200 1,572 4,978

Inner London 3,083,300 319 9,656

Camden 235,400 22 10,798

City of London 11,700 3 4,029

Hackney 219,200 19 11,499

Hammersmith and Fulham 169,700 16 10,345

Haringey 225,000 30 7,605

Islington 194,100 15 13,061

Kensington and Chelsea 169,500 12 13,973

Lambeth 284,500 27 10,606Lewisham 266,500 35 7,580

Newham 240,100 36 6,629

Southwark 287,000 29 9,948

Tower Hamlets 237,900 20 12,034

Wandsworth 289,600 34 8,451

Westminster 253,100 21 11,784

Outer London 4,741,900 1,253 3,785

Barking and Dagenham 179,700 36 4,980

Barnet 348,200 87 4,014

Bexley 228,000 61 3,764

Brent 256,600 43 5,934

Bromley 312,400 150 2,080

Croydon 345,600 87 3,994

Ealing 318,500 56 5,736

Enfield 294,900 81 3,648

Greenwich 228,500 47 4,826

Harrow 230,100 50 4,558

Havering 236,100 112 2,103

Hillingdon 266,100 116 2,300

Hounslow 236,800 56 4,229

Kingston upon Thames 169,000 37 4,536

Merton 208,800 38 5,552Redbridge 270,500 56 4,795

Richmond upon Thames 190,900 57 3,325

Sutton 194,200 44 4,429

Waltham Forest 227,100 39 5,852

Source: Office for National Statistics, 2010 mid-year estimates of population (released June 2011)Notes: Definitions of Inner and Outer London used here relate to European Statistical areas (NUTSareas) and may differ from other definitions of Inner and Outer London.


30/35

Appendices Page 30

B2 Population by age and gender, Tower Hamlets, 2010

Population numbers Percentage totals (%) Gender split

Persons Males Females Persons Males Females males

Males% per 100

femalesALL AGES 237,900 121,900 100 100 105116,000 100 51

Summary age bands:

0-15 47,200 23,700 20 20 10123,500 19 50

16-64 174,600 90,800 73 72 10883,800 75 52

65 & over 16,100 7,300 7 8 848,700 6 46

0-19 57,400 28,900 24 25 10128,500 24 50

20-34 88,700 43,900 37 39 9844,800 36 49

35-59 70,200 39,100 29 27 12631,000 32 56

60 & over 21,600 10,000 9 10 8611,600 8 46

0-15 47,200 23,700 20 20 10123,500 19 50

16-24 34,200 16,600 14 15 9417,600 14 4925-34 64,700 32,400 27 28 10132,200 27 50

35-44 41,500 23,500 17 16 13018,000 19 57

45-54 21,700 12,200 9 8 1289,500 10 56

55-64 12,500 6,100 5 5 966,400 5 49

65 & over 16,100 7,300 7 8 848,700 6 46

Quinary age groups:

0-4 19,200 9 00 8 8 103,7 9,500 8 51

5-9 14,500 7,200 6 6 987,300 6 50

10-14 11,500 5,700 5 5 1005,700 5 50

15-19 12,300 6,300 5 5 1036,100 5 51

20-24 24,000 11,400 10 11 9112,600 9 4825-29 33,000 16,000 14 15 9417,000 13 49

30-34 31,600 16,400 13 13 10715,300 13 52

35-39 24,900 13,900 10 9 12611,000 11 56

40-44 16,600 9,600 7 6 1387,000 8 58

45-49 12,400 7,100 5 5 1335,300 6 57

50-54 9,400 5,100 4 4 1214,200 4 55

55-59 7,000 3,500 3 3 1003,500 3 50

60-64 5,500 2,600 2 2 922,900 2 48

65-69 4,000 1,700 2 2 722,400 1 42

70-74 4,100 2,100 2 2 992,100 2 50

75-79 3,300 1,600 1 1 941,700 1 4880-84 2,500 1,100 1 1 821,400 1 45

85+ 2,100 900 1 1 701,200 1 41

Source: ONS Mid-Year Estimates 2010 (R June 2011)eleased


31/35

Appendices Page 31

B3 Population by age, Tower Hamlets compared to London and England, 2010

Pers n ge to

Tower

Hamlets London EnglandTower

Hamlets London E l

ons Perce ta tals (%)

ng and

ALL AGES ,90 , 52,234,000 0237 0 7 825,200 100 1 0 100Summary age groups:

0-15 47, 0 1,530,000 20 20 1920 9,766,300

16-64 ,6 ,39 33,861,400 73 69 65174 00 5 2,900

65 and over ,1 90 8,606,300 7 12 1616 00 2,300

0-19 57,40 ,868 12,417,400 24 24 240 1 ,500

20-34 ,7 ,05 10,500,500 37 26 2088 00 2 7,200

35-59 70,2 ,66 17,569,600 29 34 3400 2 3,100

60 and over ,6 ,23 11,746,500 9 16 2221 00 1 6,400

0-15 47,2 ,53 9,766,300 20 20 1900 1 0,000

16-24 ,2 89 6,256,900 14 11 1234 00 4,900

25-34 64,7 ,50 6,894,800 27 19 1300 1 0,90035-44 41,5 ,30 7,470,400 17 17 1400 1 9,100

45-54 21,7 99 7,128,600 9 13 1400 6,200

55-64 12,5 692 6,110,700 5 9 1200 ,000

65 and over ,10 902 8,606,300 7 12 1616 0 ,300

Quinary age groups

0-4 19,200 586,300 8 7 63,267,100

5-9 14,50 456 2,902,500 6 6 60 ,900

10-14 ,50 406 2,981,500 5 5 611 0 ,800

15-19 12,30 418 3,266,400 5 5 60 ,500

20-24 24,00 556 3,605,700 10 7 70 ,300

25-29 33,0 74 3,589,700 14 10 700 4,00030-34 31,6 75 3,305,100 13 10 600 6,800

35-39 24,9 67 3,564,700 10 9 700 7,900

40-44 16,6 63 3,905,800 7 8 700 1,100

45-49 12,40 553 3,820,700 5 7 70 ,100

50-54 9,40 443 3,308,000 4 6 60 ,100

55-59 7,00 357 2,970,600 3 5 60 ,800

60-64 5,50 334 3,140,200 2 4 60 ,100

65-69 4,00 244 2,434,600 2 3 50 ,200

70-74 4,10 215 2,052,300 2 3 40 ,900

75-79 3,30 177 1,668,400 1 2 30 ,200

80-84 2,50 133 1,253,200 1 2 20 ,40085+ 2,10 131 1,197,800 1 2 20 ,700

Source: ONS Mid-Y imates (Re J ne 2011)ear Est 2010 leased u


32/35

Appendices Page 32

B4 Persons by ethn ic group and age, Tower Hamlets, 2011

Population num )

TOTAL

e

s

A Ba

T TAL

t

s

All

s

a-

hi

bers Percentage totals (%

group

Whit ll BME

groups

ngla-

deshi O

Whi e BM

group

E Bangl

group desAl l Ages 254,200 135,500 118,700 75,300 100 100 100 100

0 - 4 20,100 0 8 46,00 14,100 9,700 12 13

5 - 9 15,900 0 6 23,10 12,800 9,100 11 12

10 - 14 13,100 0 5 2 92,10 11,000 8,300 11

15 - 19 12,500 0 5 2 8 93,00 9,500 6,900

20 - 24 25,000 0 10 1 8 815,00 10,000 6,200 1

25 - 29 37,700 0 15 9 0 925,90 11,800 6,700 1 1

30 - 34 31,800 0 13 6 9 821,20 10,700 6,000 1

35 - 39 24,300 0 10 1 8 714,80 9,500 5,600 1

40 - 44 18,000 0 7 7 7 610,10 7,900 4,600

45 - 49 13,300 0 5 5 5 47,40 5,800 3,100 50 - 54 10,000 0 4 4 4 35,70 4,300 2,300

55 - 59 7,800 0 3 4 3 24,80 3,000 1,800

60 - 64 6,300 0 2 3 2 14,20 2,100 1,100

65 - 69 4,800 0 2 2 1 13,10 1,700 1,000

70 - 74 4,600 2,400 2,100 1,400 2 2 2 2

75 - 79 3,600 0 1 2 1 12,20 1,300 900

80 - 84 2,800 0 1 2 1 12,10 700 400

85 - 89 1,700 0 1 1 0 01,40 200 100

90+ 900 0 0 1 0 080 100 100

Age groups - banded 0-19 61,700 0 3 24 1 014,30 47,400 4,100 1 4 45

20-34 94,600 0 1 37 6 762,10 32,500 8,900 4 2 25

35-49 55,600 0 1 22 4 032,40 23,200 3,300 2 2 18

50-64 24,100 0 9 8 714,70 9,400 5,200 11

65+ 18,300 0 7 9 5 512,00 6,200 3,800

Source: Greater London A , 201 thnic ulation Projections (SHLA narioFebruary 2011)

uthority 0 Round E Group Pop A scereleased


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Appendices Page 33

B5 Population projections (GLA), London Boroughs 2011-2026

Population projectionse

change - 2011 to:oroughs ranked from

fastest to slowestgrowing 20 20 2021 2026 20 0 6

PercentagB

11 16 16 2 21 202

Tower Hamle ,20 3,800 2 4 6 23 8ts 254 0 28 31 , 00 32 ,100 12 2Greenwich ,4 2,80 6 200 8,60 13 23 8241 00 27 0 29 , 30 0 2

City of London ,70 7 18 59 0 10,400 11,500 12,100 2

Barking and Dagenham ,40 9,500 3 100 1,500 11 19 3179 0 19 21 , 22 2

Newham ,90 9,200 8 200 3,600 11 18 0268 0 29 31 , 32 2

Barnet 334,200 5,400 4 000 8,600 12 15 937 38 , 39 1

Southwark ,80 2,100 4 100 2,900 8 16 9288 0 31 33 , 34 1

Islington ,90 7,000 7 00 7,500 7 12 7211 0 22 23 ,4 24 1

Havering ,50 7,200 1 600 7,700 5 12 4234 0 24 26 , 26 1

Wandsworth ,200 7,800 3 00 4,100 5 10 3303 31 33 ,3 34 1

Lambeth ,500 9,900 2 000 4,400 5 9 3303 31 33 , 34 1

Hackney ,200 8,900 7 900 4,200 6 10 3234 24 25 , 26 1Lewisham ,900 2,000 9 700 6,200 6 9 1274 29 29 , 30 1

Hammersmith & Fulham ,200 1,000 7 700 1,900 4 8 0183 19 19 , 20 1

Waltham Fores ,700 3,800 9 900 3,500 5 7 9t 232 24 24 , 25

Brent 283,000 6,400 3 500 5,800 5 7 829 30 , 30

Westminster ,100 1,400 6 500 8,600 5 7 8221 23 23 , 23

Croydon ,000 0,700 8 900 4,000 4 6 8347 36 36 , 37

Haringey ,200 2,500 6 200 7,600 6 7 8239 25 25 , 25

Ealing 322,000 3,400 9 700 6,700 4 5 833 33 , 34

Camden ,200 0,000 4 900 8,900 3 6 7213 22 22 , 22

Kensington & Chelsea 172,200 176,200 183,300 184,700 2 76

Kingston upon Thames 157,100 162,600 165,700 167,500 3 75Hillingdon ,90 6,20 9 500 3,300 4 5 7265 0 27 0 27 , 28

Redbridge ,20 0,20 4 600 5,200 3 5 5261 0 27 0 27 , 27

Hounslow ,70 4,10 6 700 9,100 2 3 4239 0 24 0 24 , 24

Bromley ,400 2,900 6 600 7,800 2 3 4306 31 31 , 31

Harrow ,800 9,000 9 900 1,300 2 3 3223 22 22 , 23

Bexley 220,200 222,000 224,500 227,400 1 2 3

Richmond upon Thames 188,500 192,400 193,700 194,000 2 3 3

Enfield 296,300 300,100 303,500 304,700 1 2 3

Merton 200,700 204,300 205,400 206,300 2 2 3

Sutton 188,000 189,600 189,700 190,000 1 1 1

Inner Boroughs 3,178,200 3,382,500 3,535,000 3,622,900 6 11 14

Outer Boroughs 4,722,300 4,932,500 5,046,800 5,122,700 4 7 8

Greater London 7,900,500 8,314,900 8,581,900 8,745,600 5 9 11

Source: Greater London Authority: 2010 Round Demographic Projections(SHLAA scenario, released February 2011)


34/35

Appendices Page 34

B6 GLA population projections for Tower Hamlets, by age, 2011-2026

Age bands

0-15 4 2 35-4 0-64

All

persons 16-2 5-34 9 5 65+Age

Aged50 and

16-64

rove

2011 254,200 51,500 35,200 55 ,10 0 ,40 42,40069,500 ,600 24 0 18,30 184 02012 260,300 52,700 35,200 57 ,90 0 ,00 43,40071,600 ,400 24 0 18,50 189 0

2013 266,200 53,800 35,300 59, ,800 0 1 ,60 44,50073,400 100 25 18,80 93 0

2014 272,100 55,100 35,400 75,000 61 ,70 0 ,10 45,700,100 26 0 19,00 198 0

2015 278,000 56,300 35,400 63 ,70 0 ,40 46,90076,200 ,100 27 0 19,30 202 0

2016 283,800 57,600 35,300 65 ,80 0 ,70 48,40077,400 ,100 28 0 19,60 206 0

2017 289,700 58,900 35,300 67 ,00 0 2 ,90 49,90078,700 ,000 30 0 19,90 10 0

2018 295,500 60,000 35,400 68 ,10 0 2 ,10 51,50079,600 ,900 31 0 20,40 15 0

2019 301,200 61,100 35,700 71 ,30 0 2 ,30 53,20080,300 ,000 32 0 20,80 19 0

2020 306,900 62,200 36,100 73 ,60 0 223,400 54,90080,600 ,100 33 0 21,30

2021 312,400 63,200 36,400 75 ,90 0 2 ,30 56,80080,800 ,100 34 0 21,90 27 02022 315,300 63,700 36,500 76 ,00 0 229,100 58,40080,300 ,300 36 0 22,40

2023 318,000 64,10 0 77 ,10 0 231,000 60,1000 36,70 79,700 ,500 37 0 22,90

2024 320,800 64,500 37,000 78 ,20 0 232,800 61,70079,100 ,500 38 0 23,50

2025 323,500 64,800 37,400 79 ,20 0 234,600 63,30078,500 ,500 39 0 24,10

2026 326,100 65,100 37,900 80 ,20 0 236,300 64,90077,700 ,500 40 0 24,70

Population growth - numbe rs

2011-16 29,600 6,00 0 9 ,70 0 ,200 6,0000 10 7,900 ,500 4 0 1,30 22

2011-21 58,200 11,70 0 19 ,90 0 ,900 14,5000 1,20 11,300 ,500 10 0 3,60 42

2011-26 71,900 13,60 0 24 ,10 0 ,800 22,5000 2,80 8,200 ,800 16 0 6,50 51

Population growth - percen ngtage cha e

2011-16 12 1 0 1 7 122 11 17 9 14

2011-21 23 2 3 4 0 233 16 35 5 2 34

2011-26 28 2 8 6 5 286 12 45 7 3 53

Population composition (pe o pu ling h ge g up)rcentage f total po lation fal into eac a ro

2011 100 2 7 730 14 27 22 9 17

2016 100 2 7 320 1 27 23 10 7 17

2021 100 2 720 1 26 24 11 73 182026 100 2 8 7220 1 24 25 12 20

Source: Greater London Autho o a io nario leaserity: 2010 R und Demogr phic Project ns (SHLAA sce , re dFebruary 2011)


35/35

Further informationFurther information

Corporate Research UnitThis Briefing was produced by the Councils Corporate Research Unit (CRU), which is

based in the Chief Executives Directorate. Research briefings provide timely and in-depth

analysis of data about Tower Hamlets and are designed to improve the use and sharing of

data across the Partnership.

Recent briefings include:

Annual Residents Survey Results 2010-11 (Research Briefing 2011/02)

Indices of Deprivation 2010 (Research Briefing 2011/03)

Welfare Reform Briefing(Research Briefing 2011/01)

Child Benefit Key Facts(Research Briefing 2010/05)

Population data: a technical guide(Research Briefing 2010/03)

A profile of residents by language(Research Briefing 2010/02)

These briefings can be downloaded on the LBTH intranet:

http://towernet/Intranet/staff_services/business_planning/corporate_policy/corporate_research_briefings.aspx

Contact details for the Corporate Research Unit are:

Shanara Matin Partnership Information Manager 020 7364 4548

Juanita Haynes Senior Research Officer 020 7364 4238

Lorna Spence Research Officer 020 7364 4014

Matthias Schneppel Research Officer 020 7364 1650

Ashraf Ali Research Officer 020 7364 0528

Ahea Hannan Research Officer 020 7364 2239

The CRU contact for enquiries relating to this briefing is: Lorna Spence.
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rb 2011-06 population key facts

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