raymond james 36th annual institutional investors conference
TRANSCRIPT
TD Ameritrade Holding Corporation (NYSE: AMTD). Brokerage services provided by TD Ameritrade, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and TD Ameritrade Clearing, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, subsidiaries of TD Ameritrade Holding Corp. TD Ameritrade is a trademark jointly owned by TD Ameritrade IP Company, Inc. and The Toronto-Dominion Bank. © 2015 TD Ameritrade IP Company, Inc. All rights reserved. Used with permission.
TD Ameritrade Raymond James 36th Annual Institutional Investors Conference Orlando, FL March 3, 2015
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Executive Vice President and CFO Bill Gerber
This document contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the federal securities laws. We intend these forward-looking statements to be covered by the safe harbor provisions of the federal securities laws. In particular, any projections regarding our future revenues, expenses, earnings, capital expenditures, effective tax rates, client trading activity, accounts or stock price, as well as the assumptions on which such expectations are based, are forward-looking statements. These statements reflect only our current expectations and are not guarantees of future performance or results. These statements involve risks, uncertainties and assumptions that could cause actual results or performance to differ materially from those contained in the forward-looking statements. These risks, uncertainties and assumptions include, but are not limited to: general economic and political conditions and other securities industry risks, fluctuations in interest rates, stock market fluctuations and changes in client trading activity, credit risk with clients and counterparties, increased competition, systems failures, delays and capacity constraints, network security risks, liquidity risks, new laws and regulations affecting our business, regulatory and legal matters and uncertainties and other risk factors described in our latest Annual Report on Form 10-K, filed with the SEC on Nov. 21, 2014 and our latest Quarterly Report on Form 10-Q filed thereafter. These forward-looking statements speak only as of the date on which the statements were made. We undertake no obligation to update or revise publicly any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except to the extent required by the federal securities laws.
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Safe Harbor
Six Investment Themes for TD Ameritrade
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Long-Term Themes Key Takeaways
1. Unique and differentiated business model Low financial risk – conservative balance
sheet and strong pre-tax margins Significant operating leverage
2. Market leadership in trading(1) Growth in mobile thinkorswim platform
3. Premier asset gatherer Secular trends strong Six consecutive years of double-digit growth
4. Unique relationship with TD(2) Economics of deposit banking without
capital requirements Significant free cash flow
5. Well-positioned for rising interest rates $101B in interest rate sensitive assets(3)
6. Good stewards of shareholder capital Primary uses of cash: investments in
business, dividends, share repurchases and acquisitions
(1) Source: Internally estimated daily average revenue client trades (DARTS) based on last twelve months publicly available reports for E*Trade Financial and Charles Schwab. (2) TD Ameritrade, Inc. and TD Bank, N.A. are affiliated through their parent companies. (3) Interest rate sensitive assets consist of spread-based assets and money market mutual funds. Balances as of Dec 31, 2014.
Continue to build long-term earnings power and deploy/return capital to further enhance shareholder value
1. Unique and Differentiated Business Model
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36% 37%
34%
39% 41% $1.00
$1.11 $1.06
$1.22
$1.42 $1.45
$0.00
$0.20
$0.40
$0.60
$0.80
$1.00
$1.20
$1.40
$1.60
$1.80
20%
30%
40%
50%
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15
41-43%
$1.70
(1)
EPS Pre-Tax Margin Forecasted Pre-Tax Margin Range Forecasted Range(1) Business model
combined with TD Bank(2) relationship drives: Low capital intensity High return on equity Strong cash and capital
generation Cash generation
approximates net income
Scalable business model 97+% of transactions are
online Lean/sourcing initiatives
Dec Q ’14: EPS $0.39 Pre-Tax Margin 41%
(1) FY15 forecast per 10/28/14 outlook statement. (2) TD Ameritrade, Inc. and TD Bank, N.A. are affiliated through their parent companies.
Client Trades Per Day & Activity Rate(2)
372
399
360 374
427
28%
32%
36%
39% 41%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
275
325
375
425
475
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15
Avg. Client Trades Per Day (K)
2. Market Leadership in Trading(1)
6
% Derivatives(4) of Total Trades per Day
Forecasted Range (K)(3)
(1) Source: Internally estimated daily average revenue client trades (DARTS) based on last twelve months publicly available reports for E*Trade Financial and Charles Schwab. (2) Funded account activity rate (AR%). Average client trades per day during the period divided by the average number of total funded accounts during the period. (3) FY15 forecast per 10/28/14 outlook statement. (4) Derivatives include options, futures and foreign exchange (Forex) trades per day. (5) FY15 DARTS and AR% year-to-date as of 12/31/14. (6) Total revenue-generating trades divided by the number of trading days in the period. This metric is also known as average client trades per day.
465
Activity Rate(2)
6.9% 7.2% 6.3% 6.3% 6.2-7.2%(3) 6.9%
400
Improved macroeconomic environment Dec Q ’14 DARTs(6) of
457K/7.2% activity rate Institutional trading increasing
Growth strategies Tiered platform strategy Product proliferation: Derivatives
41% of Dec Q ’14 DARTs Mobile record 14% of Dec Q ‘14
DARTS
Fiscal 2015 Outlook Activity Rate 6.2%-7.2% January DARTs of 493K/7.7%
activity rate
457/ 7.2%(5)
3. Premier Asset Gatherer
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Net New Client Assets ($B)(1)
(1) Net new assets (NNA) consists of total client asset inflows, less total client asset outflows, excluding activity from business combinations. Client asset inflows include interest and dividend payments and exclude changes in client assets due to market fluctuations. Net new assets are measured based on the market value of the assets as of the date of the inflows and outflows.
(2) FY15 forecast per 10/28/14 outlook statement. (3) NNA growth rate is annualized net new assets as a % of client assets as of the beginning of the period. (4) NNA and NNA growth rate year-to-date as of 12/31/14. (5) Source: Annual NNA growth rate as a % of client assets as of the beginning of the period based on last twelve months of publicly available reports for E*Trade Financial and Charles
Schwab.
$34 $41 $41
$50 $53
$46
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15
$72
Growth Rate(3)
7-11%(2) 11% 10% 10% 12% 11% Growth Rate(3)
Forecasted Range ($B)(2)
Industry leading asset gatherer(5)
Dec Q ’14 record $18.8B, 11% growth rate, up 30% year-over-year
Six consecutive years of double-digit growth
Sales and service culture Strong momentum in both retail and
institutional Retail driven by:
New relationships Cross-selling High asset retention rates
Institutional driven by: New and existing RIA growth VEO open architecture
Fiscal 2015 Outlook Long-term goal 7-11% growth
$18.8/ 11%(4)
Investment Product Fees(1)
8
Forecasted Range ($M)(2) Investment Product Fees ($M)
(1) Market fee-based plus money market mutual fund revenue. (2) FY15 forecast per 10/28/14 outlook statement. (3) Investment Product Fees year-to-date as of 12/31/14.
$129
$166
$196
$250
$309
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
FY10 FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15
CAGR: 24%
Avg. Bal. ($B) $62 $78 $86 $113 $137 $156-$168(2)
$385
$340
Dec Q ’14 update Record average balances Year-over-year growth:
average balances up 16%; revenue up 15%
10% of total revenue
Guidance products performing well
Strong mutual fund growth Fiscal 2015 Outlook
Targeting 10-25% growth
$83(3)
4. Unique Relationship with TD(1)
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Continue to build long-term earnings power and deploy/return capital to further enhance shareholder value
TD Owns ~ 41%(2) of TD Ameritrade
Stockholders’ agreement amended and extended to 2021
Insured deposit account (IDA)(3) agreement Revised agreement effective January 1, 2013 – July 1, 2018
Money market mutual funds provided by TD Asset Management
Cross-selling to TD Bank customers
Access to U.S. markets for TD Waterhouse Canada/UK clients
(1) TD Ameritrade, Inc. and TD Bank, N.A. are affiliated through their parent companies. (2) As of Dec. 31, 2014. (3) Client cash is held in FDIC-insured deposit accounts (IDA) at TD Bank, N.A. and TD Bank USA, N.A. TD Ameritrade, TD Bank, N.A., and TD Bank USA, N.A. are affiliated
through The Toronto-Dominion Bank.
$46 $59 $68 $74 $76
$13
$15 $16
$18 $19
$9
$5 $5
$5 $6
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
Dec '10 Dec '11 Dec '12 Dec '13 Dec '14
Money Market Mutual FundsInterest Earning AssetsIDA
5. Well-Positioned for Rising Interest Rates
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Ending Balances ($B)
Immediate benefit with Fed Funds increases
Benefit over time with Yield Curve due to re-pricing of laddered investment portfolio
(2)
Float $19B
$90 $97
$79
$101
(1) Client cash is held in FDIC-insured deposit accounts (IDA) at TD Bank, N.A. and TD Bank USA, N.A. TD Ameritrade, TD Bank, N.A., and TD Bank USA, N.A. are affiliated through The Toronto-Dominion Bank.
(2) Ending balances as of Dec. 31, 2014 consisted of $11.5B in client margin balances, $4.5B in segregated cash, and $3.1B in other balances. (3) Interest rate sensitive assets consist of spread-based assets and money market mutual funds. Ending balances as of Dec. 31, 2014. (4) Impact on spread-based and money market mutual fund revenues in the next twelve months following an interest rate increase. Assumes fed funds increase results in a parallel
shift to the LIBOR/SWAP yield curve with no sharing with the client. Sensitivity relates to first 100bps increase. *Certain totals may not foot due to rounding.
(1)
Fixed$57B
$68
Interest rate sensitive assets(3) record $101B, up 4% year-over-year Ending client cash as % of
client assets 14.4% Overall consolidated
duration of 2.2 years
Sensitivity model - estimated annual impact to EPS on +100bps(4): Yr. 1 =+$0.38
Yr. 2 =+$0.44
Yr. 3 =+$0.51
(2)
6. Good Stewards of Shareholder Capital
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Strong Cash Generation and Strong Financial Position
(3)
$0.6 $0.6 $0.7
$0.8
$0.2
$0.5
$0.3
$0.7
$0.5
$0.2
$0.0
$0.2
$0.4
$0.6
$0.8
$1.0
FY11 FY12 FY13 FY14 FY15 YTD
Net Income ($B) Returned/Deployed ($B)
81% 65% 56% 107%
(1)
(1) Cash used for M&A, debt repayments, share repurchases, and dividends divided by net income. Excludes shares repurchased for payroll taxes on equity award distributions.
S&P “A”, Moody’s “A3” Fiscal 2014
Paid $0.98 per share in cash dividends ($540M)
Repurchased 6.0M shares at an average of $31.37/share ($190M)
Fiscal 2015 Increased quarterly cash
dividend by 25% to $0.15/share Share repurchases continue Refinanced $500M debt which
matured 12/1/14 114%
Fiscal 2015 Outlook
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Continued focus on organic growth Asset gathering Trading Investment product fees and balances(1)
Continued investment in technology
Return of capital strategy Increased quarterly cash dividend by 25% to $0.15/share Share repurchases continue Refinanced $500M debt which matured 12/1/14
Fiscal 2015 EPS Outlook Range: $1.45-$1.70(2)
(1) Market fee-based plus money market mutual fund revenue. (2) FY15 forecast per 10/28/14 outlook statement.
Continue to build long-term earnings power and deploy/return capital to further enhance shareholder value
Six Investment Themes for TD Ameritrade
13
Continue to build long-term earnings power and deploy/return capital to further enhance shareholder value
1. Unique and differentiated business model
2. Market leadership in trading(1)
3. Premier asset gatherer
4. Unique relationship with TD(2)
5. Well-positioned for rising interest rates
6. Good stewards of shareholder capital
(1) Source: Internally estimated daily average revenue client trades (DARTS) based on last twelve months publicly available reports for E*Trade Financial and Charles Schwab. (2) TD Ameritrade, Inc. and TD Bank, N.A. are affiliated through their parent companies.
TD Ameritrade Holding Corporation (NYSE: AMTD). Brokerage services provided by TD Ameritrade, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and TD Ameritrade Clearing, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, subsidiaries of TD Ameritrade Holding Corp. TD Ameritrade is a trademark jointly owned by TD Ameritrade IP Company, Inc. and The Toronto-Dominion Bank. © 2015 TD Ameritrade IP Company, Inc. All rights reserved. Used with permission.
TD Ameritrade Raymond James 36th Annual Institutional Investors Conference Orlando, FL March 3, 2015
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Executive Vice President and CFO Bill Gerber
Fiscal 2015 Outlook Range(1)
Financial Macro Assumptions Key Metrics
High
$1.70 EPS 10% Market Growth NNA(3) $72B / 11%(4)
43% Pre-Tax Margin
Activity Rate(2) of 7.2% TPD 465K
Increasing Fed Funds Increasing Yield Curve
NIM(5) 1.57% / IDA(6) 1.15%
Low
$1.45 EPS 0% Market Growth NNA $46B / 7%
41% Pre-Tax Margin
Activity Rate of 6.2% TPD 400K
No change in Fed Funds or Yield Curve
NIM 1.49% / IDA 1.10%
(1) See outlook statement published 10/28/2014. (2) Funded account activity rate. Average client trades per day during the period divided by the average number of total funded accounts during the period. (3) NNA (net new assets) consists of total client asset inflows, less total client asset outflows, excluding activity from business combinations. Client asset inflows include interest and
dividend payments and exclude changes in client assets due to market fluctuations. Net new assets are measured based on the market value of the assets as of the date of the inflows and outflows.
(4) NNA growth rate is annual net new assets as a % of client assets as of the beginning of the period. (5) NIM (net interest margin) is a measure of the net yield on our average spread-based assets. (6) Client cash is held in FDIC-insured deposit accounts (IDA) at TD Bank, N.A. and TD Bank USA N.A. TD Ameritrade, TD Bank, N.A. and TD Bank USA, N.A. are affiliated through
The Toronto Dominion Bank.
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Sensitivity
3K average client trades per day = $0.01
0.05% funded activity rate(1) = $0.01
$4.1B fee-based assets(2) = $0.01
$0.6B spread-based assets(3) = $0.01
+25bps fed move = +$0.08(4)
(1) Funded account activity rate. Average client trades per day during the period divided by the average number of funded accounts during the period. (2) Client assets invested in money market mutual funds, other mutual funds and Company programs such as AdvisorDirect and Amerivest, on which we earn fee revenues. (3) Client and brokerage-related asset balances, including client margin balances, segregated cash, insured deposit account balances, deposits paid on securities borrowing and other
cash and interest-earning investment balances. (4) Impact on spread-based and money market mutual fund revenues in the first twelve months following an interest rate increase. Assumes fed funds increase results in a parallel shift
to the LIBOR/SWAP yield curve with no sharing with the client. Sensitivity relates to first 25bps increase.
Estimated annual impact to EPS
16
367
388
355
328 334
378
399
382
414
492
401 403
457
6.5%
6.8%
6.2%
5.7% 5.8%
6.5%
6.7%
6.4%
6.9%
8.1%
6.5% 6.4%
7.2%
300
325
350
375
400
425
450
475
500
5.5%
6.0%
6.5%
7.0%
7.5%
8.0%
8.5%
Dec Q'11
Mar Q'12
Jun Q'12
Sep Q'12
Dec Q'12
Mar Q'13
Jun Q'13
Sep Q'13
Dec Q'13
Mar Q'14
Jun Q'14
Sep Q'14
Dec Q'14
Activity Rate(1)
(1) Funded account activity rate (AR%). Average client trades per day during the period divided by the average number of total funded accounts during the period. (2) Per outlook statement published 10/28/14.
Thirteen quarter average 6.6%
Activity Rate
13 Qtr. Avg. Activity Rate
6.6%
FY15 Outlook Range(2):
Activity Rate: 6.2%-7.2% Avg. Trades Per Day (K): 400-465
Avg. Trades Per Day (K)
17
Cash as % of Client Assets Historic 13-18% Range Shifting Downward due to Mix
Avg. Client Cash ($B) Avg. Client Cash as % of Client Assets
18
$57.6 $58.8 $60.2 $61.3 $63.7
$66.2 $68.2
$72.5 $74.9
$75.8 $75.0 $76.8 $80.9
$83.6 $85.8 $90.2 $91.6 $91.8 $91.7 $93.7
$95.7
18.8% 18.1% 17.9% 18.2%
17.2%
16.5% 16.3%
18.1% 18.8%
17.6% 16.9% 16.8% 17.1% 16.7% 16.4% 16.7%
15.9% 15.2%
14.5% 14.3% 14.4%
10%
15%
20%
25%
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
$55
$60
$65
$70
$75
$80
$85
$90
$95
$100
Dec Q'09
Mar Q'10
Jun Q'10
Sep Q'10
Dec Q'10
Mar Q'11
Jun Q'11
Sep Q'11
Dec Q'11
Mar Q'12
Jun Q'12
Sep Q'12
Dec Q'12
Mar Q'13
Jun Q'13
Sep Q'13
Dec Q'13
Mar Q'14
Jun Q'14
Sep Q'14
Dec Q'14
(1) Client cash is held in FDIC-insured deposit accounts (IDA) at TD Bank, N.A. and TD Bank USA, N.A. TD Ameritrade, TD Bank, N.A., and TD Bank USA, N.A. are affiliated through The Toronto-Dominion Bank.
(2) Source: Bloomberg quarterly average. *Certain totals may not foot due to rounding.
IDA(1) Net Revenue Trend
19
$58.8 $58.4 $59.0 $61.4
$64.2 $67.1
$68.6 $72.0 $72.7 $73.0 $72.4 $73.6 $75.0
$205 $209 $206 $207 $205 $200 $199 $201 $208
$202 $202 $208 $207
$25
$50
$75
$100
$125
$150
$175
$200
$225
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
$55
$60
$65
$70
$75
$80
Dec Q '11 Mar Q '12 Jun Q '12 Sep Q '12 Dec Q '12 Mar Q '13 Jun Q '13 Sep Q '13 Dec Q '13 Mar Q '14 Jun Q '14 Sep Q '14 Dec Q '14
Avg. IDA Balances ($B) IDA Revenue ($M)
Net Yield 1.10% 1.11% 1.08% 1.37% 1.42%
5YR Swap Rates(2) 1.74% 1.82% 1.74% 1.32% 1.17%
Total Revenue FY12 : $828
Avg. Fed Funds(2) 0.09% 0.09% 0.10% 0.08% 0.11%
1.38%
1.08% 0.16%
1.32%
0.86% 0.15%
1.25%
0.81% 0.16%
1.19%
0.96% 0.15%
Total Revenue FY13 : $804 -3% YoY Growth
1.15%
1.08% 0.12%
1.09%
1.67% 0.09%
1.12%
1.54% 0.09%
1.10%
1.69% 0.07%
Total Revenue FY14 : $820 2% YoY Growth
Total Revenue FY15 YTD: flat YoY Growth
0.42 0.51 0.46 0.49
0.55 0.58
0.82 0.90 0.92 0.95
1.57 1.54
1.79 1.80 1.70
1.93 1.77 1.74
1.44
2.15 2.16
2.48 2.36
2.18 2.30
2.04 2.01
0.13 0.07 0.06 0.07 0.06 0.09 0.07 0.06 0.12
0.00
0.50
1.00
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
Mar Q '13 Jun Q '13 Sep Q '13 Dec Q '13 Mar Q '14 Jun Q '14 Sep Q '14 Dec Q '14 2/20/2015
2 YR 5 YR 7 YR Fed Funds
Libor/Swap Yield Curve Eight quarter trend
(1) Source: Bloomberg daily (end of period). (2) Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve website Daily Fed Funds Effective Rate (end of period). (3) Source: Bloomberg close of business as of 2/20/15.
(2) (1) (1)
Ending Spreads Dec Q ’14 Sep Q ‘14 Dec Q ‘13
2 YR vs. 5 YR 0.87 1.11 1.30
2 YR vs. 7 YR 1.14 1.48 1.99
20
(1)
(3)
TD Ameritrade Holding Corporation (NYSE: AMTD). Brokerage services provided by TD Ameritrade, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, and TD Ameritrade Clearing, Inc., member FINRA/SIPC, subsidiaries of TD Ameritrade Holding Corp. TD Ameritrade is a trademark jointly owned by TD Ameritrade IP Company, Inc. and The Toronto-Dominion Bank. © 2015 TD Ameritrade IP Company, Inc. All rights reserved. Used with permission.
TD Ameritrade
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