Raven’s Rock and the Raven’s Rock and the Tanawha TrailTanawha Trail

Sarah DochowSarah Dochow

Andrew MayAndrew May

Callie SafleyCallie Safley

PurposePurpose

• Estimate Value

• Determine Demand for the Environmental Resources

• Investigate Factors– Permit– Ranger Presence– Maintenance

TheoryTheory

• Demand Curve – Created by putting trips on the horizontal axis

and the travel cost on the vertical axis

• Consumer surplus – Region below the demand curve and above

the average price level

TheoryTheory$

TRIPS

CS

ΔCS

MethodMethod

• Random Interviews– At or near Tanawha Trail and Raven’s Rock– Hypothetical questions used to establish shifts

in the demand curve

• Demand curve– Derived from interview responses

• Confirmed confidentiality – Made results available if requested

DataData

• Sample size = 38 people

• Average Number of Trips to Tanawha Trail– 3.13 ± 0.67

• Average Number of Trips to Raven’s Rock– 1.907 ± 0.464

Data (cont.)Data (cont.)

• Average Willingness to Pay for hiking permit – $7.59 – SD = $10.81

• Average Travel Cost (.36*roundtrip distance)– $79.08 – SD = $113.76

Data (cont.)Data (cont.)

• 63% were male participants

• Average Education level was 3.5 years of college

• Average age was 34

• 74% were willing to pay for a permit

Statistical ResultsStatistical Results

• We took the natural log of RP-trips and add one to get the values for the horizontal axis: ln(trips+1)

• We had travel cost on the vertical axis calculated by: (.36*roundtrip distance)

• We had three possible demand shifters but only one was statistically significant at the 92% level: (1-pvalue)= (1-.08)=.92

Demand ModelDemand Model

  CoefficientStandard

Error t Stat

Intercept 0.85 0.131 6.53

Demand Slope -0.0015 0.00062 -2.40

Park Ranger 0.028 0.171 0.165

Trail Maintenance 0.313 0.171 1.83

Demand ModelDemand Model

0

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0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5

Trips

Tra

ve

l co

st

Consumer SurplusConsumer Surplus

• Consumer Surplus • Semi-log: –x/b; where x = Number of

Trips, b = travel cost coefficient• b = -.0015• Number of trips to Ravens Rock: x =

1.908; CS = 1.908/.0015 = $1272• Number of trips to Ravens Rock with the

quality improvement: Δx = 1.36; ΔCS = 1.36/.0015 = $908

Aggregate CSAggregate CS

• Individual ΔCS = $908

• Population of 5 counties = 903,568

• We assume that 5% are hikers (Outdoor Recreation Participation Study)

• Aggregate ΔCS = 41,021,987.2

AnalysisAnalysis

• Major Factor– People are more concerned with trail

maintenance than costs

• Bias – People live in these locations due to the fact

that they enjoy activities, like hiking

• Improvement for further Research– Larger sample size– More diversity among survey participants