ratings analyst contacts renault s.a. senior vice president · moody's investors service...

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CORPORATES CREDIT OPINION 12 March 2019 Update RATINGS Renault S.A. Domicile France Long Term Rating Baa3 Type LT Issuer Rating - Fgn Curr Outlook Stable Please see the ratings section at the end of this report for more information. The ratings and outlook shown reflect information as of the publication date. Analyst Contacts Falk Frey +49.69.70730.712 Senior Vice President [email protected] Matthias Hellstern +49.69.70730.745 MD-Corporate Finance [email protected] Timo Fittig +44.207.772.5277 Associate Analyst [email protected] CLIENT SERVICES Americas 1-212-553-1653 Asia Pacific 852-3551-3077 Japan 81-3-5408-4100 EMEA 44-20-7772-5454 Renault S.A. Update to credit analysis following change in outlook Summary Renault S.A. 's (Renault) Baa3 rating reflects (1) its position as one of Europe's largest car manufacturers, with a solid competitive position in France and good geographical diversity; (2) its long established strategic alliance with Nissan Motor Co., Ltd (Nissan, A2 RUR Down) and Mitsubishi Motors Corporation (Mitsubishi), which generates substantial synergies and at-equity income; (3) the recent renewal of its model range across all segments, in particular new launches in the C and D segments; (4) the success of its entry-level range of cars, which we believe will help the company continue to increase its volumes; (5) the continued success of its cost-reduction initiatives, which leverage the benefits of the increasing volume of new vehicle sales to enhance margins; and (6) its prudent financial policy, healthy liquidity and balanced debt maturity profile. Exhibit 1 The improvement in Renault's profitability has stopped recently -3.0% -2.0% -1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% -2x -1x 0x 1x 2x 3x 4x 5x 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 LTM 2018E Moody's adjusted Debt/ EBITDA Moody's adjusted operating margin Reported operating margin Operating margin before contribution from associates and joint ventures (JVs). For the 12 months ended June 2018 and 2018E (based on preliminary results). Source: Moody's Financial Metrics Renault's profitability remains below that of other investment-grade-rated global automotive manufacturers (a reflection of Renault's market position in the lower-priced vehicles) and, moreover, has eroded over the 12 months ended December 2018 to 3.3% against our expectations. The deterioration in Renault's profitability during the course of 2018 and our expectation that the group's profitability will not improve to a level commensurate with a Baa2 long term issuer rating (namely reported operating profit margin post exceptionals at or above 5%) within the next 12 to 18 months has been a key driver of our decision to change the outlook on Renault's rating to stable from positive on 07th March 2019. Furthermore, the rating incorporates (1) Renault's dependence on the contribution to its earnings and cash flow from Nissan's dividends; (2) its high exposure to Europe (including France), which represented approximately 50% of unit sales in 2018 and where growth is expected to soften, although mitigated by expected continued recovery in Russia and Brazil; This document has been prepared for the use of Christophe ROCHELLE and is protected by law. It may not be copied, transferred or disseminated unless authorized under a contract with Moody's or otherwise authorized in writing by Moody's.

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Page 1: RATINGS Analyst Contacts Renault S.A. Senior Vice President · MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CORPORATES Downward pressure on the ratings could materialise if the company's (1) reported

CORPORATES

CREDIT OPINION12 March 2019

Update

RATINGS

Renault S.A.Domicile France

Long Term Rating Baa3

Type LT Issuer Rating - FgnCurr

Outlook Stable

Please see the ratings section at the end of this reportfor more information. The ratings and outlook shownreflect information as of the publication date.

Analyst Contacts

Falk Frey +49.69.70730.712Senior Vice [email protected]

Matthias Hellstern +49.69.70730.745MD-Corporate [email protected]

Timo Fittig +44.207.772.5277Associate [email protected]

CLIENT SERVICES

Americas 1-212-553-1653

Asia Pacific 852-3551-3077

Japan 81-3-5408-4100

EMEA 44-20-7772-5454

Renault S.A.Update to credit analysis following change in outlook

SummaryRenault S.A.'s (Renault) Baa3 rating reflects (1) its position as one of Europe's largest carmanufacturers, with a solid competitive position in France and good geographical diversity;(2) its long established strategic alliance with Nissan Motor Co., Ltd (Nissan, A2 RUR Down)and Mitsubishi Motors Corporation (Mitsubishi), which generates substantial synergies andat-equity income; (3) the recent renewal of its model range across all segments, in particularnew launches in the C and D segments; (4) the success of its entry-level range of cars, whichwe believe will help the company continue to increase its volumes; (5) the continued successof its cost-reduction initiatives, which leverage the benefits of the increasing volume of newvehicle sales to enhance margins; and (6) its prudent financial policy, healthy liquidity andbalanced debt maturity profile.

Exhibit 1

The improvement in Renault's profitability has stopped recently

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%

6.0%

-2x

-1x

0x

1x

2x

3x

4x

5x

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 LTM 2018E

Moody's adjusted Debt/ EBITDA Moody's adjusted operating margin Reported operating margin

Operating margin before contribution from associates and joint ventures (JVs). For the 12 months ended June 2018 and 2018E(based on preliminary results).Source: Moody's Financial Metrics

Renault's profitability remains below that of other investment-grade-rated global automotivemanufacturers (a reflection of Renault's market position in the lower-priced vehicles) and,moreover, has eroded over the 12 months ended December 2018 to 3.3% against ourexpectations. The deterioration in Renault's profitability during the course of 2018 and ourexpectation that the group's profitability will not improve to a level commensurate with aBaa2 long term issuer rating (namely reported operating profit margin post exceptionals at orabove 5%) within the next 12 to 18 months has been a key driver of our decision to changethe outlook on Renault's rating to stable from positive on 07th March 2019.

Furthermore, the rating incorporates (1) Renault's dependence on the contribution to itsearnings and cash flow from Nissan's dividends; (2) its high exposure to Europe (includingFrance), which represented approximately 50% of unit sales in 2018 and where growth isexpected to soften, although mitigated by expected continued recovery in Russia and Brazil;

This document has been prepared for the use of Christophe ROCHELLE and is protected by law. It may not be copied, transferred or disseminatedunless authorized under a contract with Moody's or otherwise authorized in writing by Moody's.

Page 2: RATINGS Analyst Contacts Renault S.A. Senior Vice President · MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CORPORATES Downward pressure on the ratings could materialise if the company's (1) reported

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CORPORATES

and (3) an expected rise in investments for capital spending and R&D for alternative fuel and other technologies, which will constrainfuture free cash flow (FCF) generation, despite the fact that Renault's FCF has remained consistently positive in the past few years, alsosupported by a sizeable dividend income from its stake in Nissan.

Credit strengths

» Status as the third-largest car manufacturer in Europe

» Successful entry-level model range and electric vehicles offering

» Increased cost efficiency through strategic alliance with Nissan and Mitsubishi

» Conservative financial policy and solid liquidity profile

Credit challenges

» High exposure to a very competitive European market, which is expected to soften in the next 12-18 months

» Increased need for investments to cope with regulatory risks related to fuel efficiency and emissions reduction, as well as for furtherdevelopment of alternative fuel vehicles

» Low automobile division profitability

» Uncertainty about the future stability and continuation of the alliance with Nissan and Mitsubishi

Rating outlookThe stable outlook anticipates that Renault will be able to maintain its operating profitability around current levels and to maintain itsMoody’s adjusted Debt/EBITDA ratio well below 3.5x. The stable outlook also anticipates a continuation of Renault's prudent financialpolicy, healthy liquidity supported by positive free cash flow generation and balanced debt maturity profile.

The stable outlook further reflects Moody's expectation that Renault's business setup has the capacity to contend with the long-termcyclicality within the global passenger vehicle markets and its challenging landscape as a result of heavy investment requirements for(1) alternative propulsion technologies; (2) driverless vehicles; (3) the shift of production capacities towards alternative fuel vehicles; (4)connectivity as well as (5) regulations relating to vehicle safety, emissions and fuel economy.

Factors that could lead to an upgradeWe could consider a rating upgrade if Renault were able to increase its profitability, aided by a successful execution of its strategyin the C and D segments and further cost efficiencies, while turning its high exposures to Russia and Latin America to an earningsenhancing factor because these markets are expected to recover over the next two years.

An upgrade would also require Renault to successfully execute its expansion plans in China and, more generally, enhance itsgeographical profile over time, and maintain balanced financial policies and a solid liquidity profile.

Quantitatively, upward pressure on the ratings could materialise if Renault achieves and then maintains a reported operating marginfor its automotive division at or above 5% (excluding the share of income from Nissan), Moodys-adjusted debt/EBITDA sustainablybelow 2x and a continuously positive annual Moody's-adjusted FCF of above €500 million.

Factors that could lead to a downgradeDownward pressure on Renault's ratings could materialise if its strategy of building a consistently profitable model range andinfrastructure were to be unsuccessful or if the company were to face declining market shares in key markets. More aggressive financialpolicies causing a deterioration in the company's financial profile or liquidity, or both, could also trigger a downgrade.

This publication does not announce a credit rating action. For any credit ratings referenced in this publication, please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page onwww.moodys.com for the most updated credit rating action information and rating history.

2 12 March 2019 Renault S.A.: Update to credit analysis following change in outlook

This document has been prepared for the use of Christophe ROCHELLE and is protected by law. It may not be copied, transferred or disseminatedunless authorized under a contract with Moody's or otherwise authorized in writing by Moody's.

Page 3: RATINGS Analyst Contacts Renault S.A. Senior Vice President · MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CORPORATES Downward pressure on the ratings could materialise if the company's (1) reported

MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CORPORATES

Downward pressure on the ratings could materialise if the company's (1) reported operating margin for its automotive division wereto remain sustainably in the low-single-digit range (in percentage terms), (2) Moody's-adjusted debt/EBITDA were to increase towards3.5x, or (3) FCF were to remain negative for a prolonged period.

Key indicators

Exhibit 2

Renault's key indicators

Renault S.A. (automotive only) Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17

LTM

Jun-18 Dec-18E (1)

EBITA Margin % [1] 5.2% 7.3% 7.7% 8.9% 7.5% 6.1%

EBITA Margin (excl. Nissan contribution) % 1.2% 2.7% 4.1% 4.0% 3.4% 3.3%

Moody's adjusted operating income margin 1.2% 2.9% 3.9% 3.8% 3.4% 2.8%

Debt / EBITDA 3.2x 2.4x 2.2x 1.7x 1.9x 2.1x

(Cash + Mkt Sec) / Debt 100.5% 107.5% 105.3% 106.8% 108.4% 110.5%

RCF / Debt 17.0% 20.1% 24.5% 21.3% 22.2% 22.9%

FCF / Debt 7.1% 7.8% 8.1% 4.1% 4.6% 1.1%

EBITA / Interest Expense 4.0x 5.9x 7.8x 9.4x 9.1x 10.0x

(1) 2018E are based on preliminary results reported by Renault and are therefore estimatesAll figures and ratios are calculated using Moody's estimates and standard adjustments; EBITA margin % includes equity-accounted contributions from Nissan; LTM=Last 12 months; 2018Eare based on 2017 adjustments as Renault has not yet disclosed its annual report with footnotesSource: Moody's Financial Metrics

ProfileHeadquartered in Boulogne-Billancourt, France, Renault S.A. (Renault) is Europe's third-largest car manufacturer by unit sales. Inaddition to the Renault brand, the company manufactures cars under the Dacia, Renault Samsung Motors (South Korea), Alpine andLada (Russia) brands. Moreover, Renault provides financing to dealers and end customers through its wholly owned finance company,RCI Banque (Baa1 positive, baa3). In 2018, the company sold close to 3.9 million vehicles and reported total revenue of €57.4 billion.Renault currently holds a 43.4% equity stake in Nissan Motor Co., Ltd (Nissan). As of 31 December 2018, Renault’s largest shareholderswere the Government of France (Aa2 positive) and Nissan, both of which owned 15.0% of its total share capital, while Nissan does nothold any voting rights.

Detailed credit considerationsThe renewal of model range supported volume growth beyond the strong recovery in the European car marketAccording to ACEA, Renault increased its market share in Europe (European Union + European Free Trade Association countries) in2018 slightly to 10.5% from 10.4% in 2017. This constitutes a volume increase of 0.8%, with Renault outperforming the market, whichremained flat in 2018 compared to 2017, as well as its direct competitors, such as Fiat Chrysler Automobiles N.V. (Ba2 stable, -2.3%volume growth; 6.5% market share) and Ford Motor Company (Ford, Baa3 negative, -2.4%; 6.4%).

The company's solid performance was aided by the continued renewal of Renault's lineup over the past three years, particularly in theC and D segments. Recent product launches include Renault's new pickup Alaskan, the renewed Renault Koleos, as well as the renewedDacia Duster. The improved commercial performance in Europe illustrated a good market acceptance of the new models, enhancingthe resilience of the group's automotive segment, which resulted in an improved profitability and cash flow generation in its coreoperations.

Geographical profile somewhat focused on Europe, although international sales contribution is expected to increaseRenault is predominantly present in Europe but also has exposures to Africa and the Middle East, Eurasia, Latin America and AsiaPacific. Europe remains by and large the principal contributor to the company's volume (~50% in 2018), with France being thecompany's single largest market (18%).

3 12 March 2019 Renault S.A.: Update to credit analysis following change in outlook

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Exhibit 3

High exposure to a very competitive European marketGlobal car registrations of Renault by region (in units)

Exhibit 4

Renault remains the main brand of the groupGlobal car registrations of Renault by brand (in units)

52% 51% 49%

14% 14%12%

10% 10%11%

19% 19%19%

5% 5% 8%

FY 2016 FY 2017 2018

Europe Africa Middle-East India Americas Eurasia Asia-Pacific

FY2016 figures restated to include AVTOVAZ (Lada) in Russia, consolidated first time in2017Source: Renault's earnings report

72% 71%65%

17% 17%18%

8% 9% 10%

3% 3%2%4%

FY 2016 FY 2017 2018

Renault Dacia Lada Renault Samsung Motors Jinbei & Huasong

FY2016 figures restated to include AVTOVAZ (Lada) in Russia, consolidated first time in2017; Jinbei & Huasong JV in China reported since January 2018Source: Renault's earnings reports

The proportion of international unit sales remained relatively constant during the last two years, reflecting strong growth in theAmericas and the Asia Pacific regions (12% and 68% growth in car registration units in 2018 y-o-y), driven by Brazil, as well as theintegration of the Chinese joint venture (JV), while unit sales in the Africa, Middle East and India region have declined close to 16% asa result of the sanctions on the Iran business and weak sales in India (-5%). Unit sales in the Eurasia region increased 2%, mainly drivenby the success of the new Lada models — Lada Vesta and XRAY — particularly in Russia whilst the Turkish market was challenging. Weexpect the recovery in Brazil and Russia to continue to mitigate the ongoing slowdown in the European market growth in 2019.

Renault is absent in the US and only modestly present in China, where it launched, early 2016, its first locally produced vehicle theKadjar, followed end 2016 by the Koleos. The cars are manufactured in the new plant in Wuhan (an initial capacity of 150,000 vehiclesper year), a project undertaken jointly with the Chinese car manufacturer Dongfeng Motor (A2 stable). In January 2018, Renault alsostarted selling light commercial vehicles through its newly established Chinese JV, Jinbei & Huasong, to increase its penetration inthe Chinese market. In 2018, Renault sold 165,603 vehicles through the JV and increased its unit sales in the Asia Pacific region to329,744 units, up from 195,290 in H1 2018. We expect Renault to further grow its volume in China in 2019, despite challenging marketconditions.

Renault's profitability improvements have stalled in 2018 after good progress made in prior yearsRenault's profitability has sustainably increased in the years to 2016, with its reported operating income margin of the automotivedivision (always excluding the contribution from associates and JVs on a reported and adjusted basis) growing to 4.8% from 1.1% in2014, and could be maintained at this improved level with 4.7% in 2017.

This improvement was supported by the ongoing cost-efficiency measures and a volume increase (including sales to partners), fueledby the positive sales momentum across all segments since the last three years. The successful execution of new model launchesenabled the company to benefit from better margins on a broader portion of its product offering.

Renault's profitability has deteriorated in 2018. Renault posted a reported operating profit margin for its automotive business of3.3% in 2018 (4.3% excluding impairments, capital gains on disposals and restructuring charges), down 130bps from LTM June 2018and 140bps from fiscal year end 2017 (down 40bps year-on-year pre-exceptionals). The deteriorating operating profitability wasmainly linked to lower volumes, raw material cost inflation and negative currency effects whilst Renault’s cost cutting efforts under itsMonozukuri programme fell slightly below expectations (€421 million savings and €362mio net of G&A increases). The sharp increasein exceptionals (~€500 million increase in impairments, capital gains and restructuring charges) also negatively impacted the group’soperating profitability post exceptionals.

4 12 March 2019 Renault S.A.: Update to credit analysis following change in outlook

This document has been prepared for the use of Christophe ROCHELLE and is protected by law. It may not be copied, transferred or disseminatedunless authorized under a contract with Moody's or otherwise authorized in writing by Moody's.

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MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CORPORATES

Going into 2019 Renault will face a challenging comparison basis for the first six months of the year against a difficult market backdropin 2019. New product launches mainly in the second half of the year, an acceleration of cost cutting measures and a recovery froma very low basis in certain emerging markets gives us, however, some comfort that Renault can stabilize its operating profitability atcurrent levels.

The Moody's-adjusted EBITA margin used in our rating methodology includes Nissan's sizeable at-equity income, but it does notcapture the share of Nissan's revenue. Hence, it was still inflated at an estimated 6.1% as of the 12 months ended December 2018(8.9% in 2017) notwithstanding that the at-equity income from Nissan reduced markedly in 2018 to €1,524 million from €2,784million in 2017. Excluding the at-equity income in Nissan, Renault's EBITA margin stood at 2.8% as of the 12 months ended December2018, below the level of some of its peers we rate, such as Peugeot S.A. (Ba1 positive) (3.7% in 2017 and 3.7% in the 12 months endedJune 2018) and Volvo Car AB (Ba1 stable) (5.5% in 2017 and 4.5% in the 12 months ended September 2018).

We acknowledge Renault's commitment to pursue its efforts at building a more efficient and sustainable cost structure throughongoing cost reductions, as well as synergies achieved through its alliances with Nissan and Mitsubishi and, to a lower extent, DaimlerAG (A2 stable). In Renault's 5-year strategic midterm plan published in October 2017, the company aims to achieve an ambitiousgrowth target of more than €70 billion in revenue (at constant currency) by 2022, constituting a compound annual growth rate of3.8% from 2017 group revenue of €58.8 billion. At the same time, the company targets an operating margin of more than 7.0% by2022 while maintaining a positive operational automotive FCF every year. With the negative development in 2018 we believe that thistarget will be very challenging to achieve.

The alliance with Nissan and Mitsubishi offers material synergies; further acceleration expectedRenault and Nissan maintain a long-standing partnership, which dates back to 1999. Renault currently holds a 43.4% stake in Nissan,which is accounted for at-equity. Nissan is well positioned in the North American, Chinese and Japanese car markets, thereby addingadditional geographical diversification to Renault's home markets. The share of income from Nissan is an important contributor toRenault's earnings. In 2018, the at-equity income (mainly from Nissan) amounted to €1.5 billion (€2.8 billion in 2017) compared with€2.4 billion of Renault's reported operating profit pre-exceptionals (automotive only, including AVTOVAZ). Moreover, the dividendsreceived from Nissan, which amounted to €784 million for the full-year 2018, are adding positively to the company's cash flow fromoperations and help fund to a large extent Renault's dividends to its shareholders (€1,027 million in 2018).

On 12th March 2019, the alliance members announced the creation of an alliance board composed of Renault, Nissan and MitsubishiMotors. The new alliance board will be focused on overseeing the operations and the execution of projects. The new board will becomposed of four members: the Chairman of Renault, the CEO of Renault, the CEO of Nissan and the CEO of Mitsubishi Motors. Allthe operating decisions will be consensus-based. All members of the alliance have confirmed that they won't be any changes in crossshareholdings for the time being. The creation of a new alliance board with a more balanced and consensus-based decision makingprocess is supportive of the long viability of the alliance and should support the achievement of cost synergies over time.

Nonetheless, we expect Renault to continue to leverage its partnership with Nissan because the integration has been enhancedsince 2014, with new joint projects in the areas of R&D, manufacturing and logistics, purchasing and human resources, which aregaining increased traction, thereby supporting a more competitive unit cost per vehicle. Moreover, Renault increased the amount ofstandardised modules with Nissan to over 130 modules, representing over 60% of vehicle value in 2017, doubling from around 30% in2013.

Mitsubishi joined the alliance in October 2016 after Nissan bought a 34% stake in the company, which should allow for furthercost sharing. Together, the three companies reached sales of over 10.6 million units in 2017, being among the largest global originalequipment manufacturers, together with Volkswagen and Toyota Motor Corporation (Aa3 stable), which reported 10.9 million and 10.4million vehicles sold in the same year, respectively.

By the end of the 2022 plan, Renault expects 80% of the model sold to be built on shared platforms (up from less than 25% in 2016).Besides strengthening the ties between the two companies, these projects yielded synergies of €5.7 billion in 2017 (versus €5.0 billionin 2016 and €4.3 billion in 2015), of which a little less than half benefited Renault, supporting the company's efficiency and creditquality. By the end of the 2022 plan, Renault expects to have doubled the R&D synergies with the alliance, representing a 25% capacityincrease.

5 12 March 2019 Renault S.A.: Update to credit analysis following change in outlook

This document has been prepared for the use of Christophe ROCHELLE and is protected by law. It may not be copied, transferred or disseminatedunless authorized under a contract with Moody's or otherwise authorized in writing by Moody's.

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Ranks first by battery electric vehicles sales in Europe but contribution still modest; stricter regulations on CO2 emissionsincrease investment needsLike its competitors, Renault faces stricter rules set by the European Union on allowed CO2 emissions levels. For 2017, Renault recordedCO2 emissions of 112 g/km on average for its fleet, ranking second after Toyota (103 g/km) and similar to that of Peugeot (112 g/km). Renault plans to achieve its imposed target by 2021, which we estimate to be somewhat around the industry-average targetof 95 g/km, through an increased share of battery electric vehicle (BEV) and plug-in hybrid electric vehicle, vehicle optimisationsand electrification of internal combustion engines. By the end of its 2022 plan, Renault's aim is to offer eight pure electric vehiclemodels (five new and three renewals), which are planned to represent around 20% of its overall volume. Renault indicated thatcapital expenditure will further increase in 2019 from the currently elevated level of €4.6 billion in net Capex and R&D expenses (incl.AVTOVAZ) in 2017 (€4.2 billion in 2016), but will decrease again by the end of 2022, to remain below the company's self-imposed 9%consolidated revenue ceiling. A rise in capital spending and R&D spending is required to meet future emissions reduction targets, rollout alternative fuel vehicles, and invest in autonomous driving technologies and mobility services.

Renault is the BEV market leader in Europe, with 48205 units (+38%, excluding Twizy) sold in 2018, accounting for 22.2% of the totalBEVs sold in Europe (European Union + European Free Trade Association countries) in the same year. The Renault ZOE, the company'sbest selling BEV, recorded 39,458 unit sales in 2018 (+26.1% y-o-y). However, the share of BEVs in Renault's total sales is still marginal,with just about 2.5% of European sales in 2018.

The Renault-Nissan-Mitsubishi alliance should help combat stricter environmental regulations through joint electrification efforts. Asof today, the alliance holds the largest share of the global electric car market, having sold over 680,000 units combined (as of January2019) since the introduction of the Nissan LEAF in 2010 and the Renault ZOE in 2012. Under a new aligned electrification strategybetween Renault and Nissan (Mitsubishi has not joined yet), the companies will no longer develop their own electric car platforms forupcoming models and instead exclusively use a new developed shared platform for the B and C segments from 2020-21 onwards. Thisstep should generate further synergies, such as joint purchases and sharing of development costs, and allow for a more competitiveselling price of future BEV models developed under the alliance. However, while the two companies will share the same platforms, aswell as the engines and the batteries, they will still develop their own designs and do their own branding.

Continued positive FCF and improving credit metrics until recentlyWe acknowledge that Renault has consistently generated a positive FCF, partly helped by significant working capital releases, withannual capital spending at around €3.3 billion on average over the last five years, a prudent dividend policy and a sizeable dividendcontribution from Nissan. In 2018, Renault's Moody's estimated adjusted FCF amounted to around €0.2 billion (€0.5 billion in 2017).The estimated 2018 FCF represented around 1% of Moody's-adjusted debt (4.1% in 2017). We expect Renault's FCF generation toremain positive for the next 12-18 months, despite rising investments in product and technology development and R&D requirementsto meet stricter emissions standards.

Moreover, Renault's Moody's-adjusted leverage (debt/EBITDA) remained adequate at an estimated 2.1x as of December 2018(compared with 1.7x in 2017).

Liquidity analysisRenault has a robust liquidity profile. As of 31 December 2018, Renault's principal sources of liquidity consisted of (1) cash and cashequivalents on the balance sheet, amounting to €11.8 billion; (2) undrawn committed credit lines of €3.5 billion; (3) current financialassets of €1.4 billion; and (4) expected positive funds from operations over the next 12 months. These cash sources provide goodcoverage for liquidity requirements that could arise during the next 12 months. These requirements consist of short-term debtmaturities of around €3.3 billion, capital spending, working capital funding, day-to-day needs and expected dividend payments.

Methodology and scorecardUnder our global Automobile Manufacturer Industry rating methodology, Renault maps to a grid-indicated rating of Baa2 on the basisof its financials for the 12 months ended December 2018, which is one notch above the assigned Baa3 rating. When considering our12-18 month forward view, the grid also indicates Baa2.

The grid-indicated outcome is a point-in-time snapshot at the peak of the industrial cycle; hence, it does not take into account thecyclicality of the industry and the product life cycle of car manufacturers. Moreover, the EBITA margin used in our grid is somewhat

6 12 March 2019 Renault S.A.: Update to credit analysis following change in outlook

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inflated by the fact that Nissan's contribution is included in the profit but not in the sales. Similarly, debt/EBITDA included in the griddoes not include Nissan's debt, while the EBITDA includes Nissan's equity contribution.

Exhibit 5

Rating Factors

Renault S.A.

Auto Manufacturer Industry Grid [1][2] Current

LTM 6/30/2018

Moody's 12-18 Month

Forward View

As of 1/9/2019 [3]Factor 1 : Business Profile (40%) Measure Score Measure Score

a) Trend in Global Unit Share Over Three Years Baa Baa Baa Baa

b) Market Position and Product Breadth/Strength Baa Baa Baa Baa

Factor 2 : Profitability and Efficiency (20%)

a) EBITA Margin 7.5% Baa 5% - 6% Ba

Factor 3 : Leverage and Coverage (30%)

a) Debt / EBITDA 1.9x A 2x - 2.2x A

b) (Cash + Marketable Securities) / Debt 108.4% A 100% - 110% A

c) RCF / Debt 22.2% Baa 22% - 23% Baa

d) FCF / Debt 4.6% B 1% - 2% B

e) EBITA / Interest Expense 9.1x A 9x - 9.5x A

Factor 4 : Financial Policy (10%)

a) Financial Policy Baa Baa Baa Baa

Rating:

a) Indicated Outcome from Scorecard Baa2 Baa2

b) Actual Rating Assigned Baa3

[1] All ratios are based on 'Adjusted' financial data and incorporate Moody's Global Standard Adjustments for Non-Financial Corporations.[2] As of 6/30/2018(L); Source: Moody’s Financial Metrics™[3] This represents Moody's forward view; not the view of the issuer; and unless noted in the text, does not incorporate significant acquisitions and divestitures.Source: Moody’s Financial Metrics

7 12 March 2019 Renault S.A.: Update to credit analysis following change in outlook

This document has been prepared for the use of Christophe ROCHELLE and is protected by law. It may not be copied, transferred or disseminatedunless authorized under a contract with Moody's or otherwise authorized in writing by Moody's.

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Appendix

Exhibit 6

Selected historical Moody's-adjusted financial dataRenault S.A. (automotive only)

(in EUR Millions) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 LTM Jun-18

INCOME STATEMENT

Revenue 38,414 38,518 42,744 48,565 55,878 56,218

EBITDA 3,408 4,011 5,182 5,826 7,200 6,431

EBITA 1,250 2,005 3,122 3,730 4,999 4,215

EBITA (excl. Nissan contribution) -248 446 1,146 1,989 2,208 1,907

EBIT 1,149 1,925 3,071 3,633 4,885 4,121

OPERATING PROFITS -449 461 1,244 1,908 2,139 1,888

Interest Expense 530 501 525 481 533 463

BALANCE SHEET

Cash & Cash Equivalents 11,679 12,734 13,046 13,285 12,988 13,493

Total Debt 12,076 12,676 12,141 12,618 12,156 12,445

CASH FLOW

Funds from Operations 2,477 2,717 3,060 3,904 3,636 3,893

CASH FLOW FROM OPERATIONS 3,267 3,313 3,668 4,217 4,160 4,442

Capex = Capital Expenditures 2,205 1,856 2,102 2,382 2,607 2,739

Dividends 550 559 620 809 1,049 1,135

Retained Cash Flow 1,927 2,158 2,440 3,095 2,587 2,758

RCF / Debt 16.0% 17.0% 20.1% 24.5% 21.3% 22.2%

Free Cash Flow (FCF) 512 898 946 1,026 504 568

FCF / Debt 4.24% 7.08% 7.79% 8.13% 4.15% 4.56%

PROFITABILITY

% Change in Sales (YoY) -1.1% 0.3% 11.0% 13.6% 15.1% 6.6%

EBIT Margin % 3.0% 5.0% 7.2% 7.5% 8.7% 7.3%

EBITA Margin % 3.3% 5.2% 7.3% 7.7% 8.9% 7.5%

EBITA Margin (excl. Nissan

contribution) %

-0.6% 1.2% 2.7% 4.1% 4.0% 3.4%

EBITDA Margin % 8.9% 10.4% 12.1% 12.0% 12.9% 11.4%

Operating Margin % -1.2% 1.2% 2.9% 3.9% 3.8% 3.4%

INTEREST COVERAGE

EBIT / Interest Expense 2.2x 3.8x 5.9x 7.6x 9.2x 8.9x

EBITDA / Interest Expense 6.4x 8.0x 9.9x 12.1x 13.5x 13.9x

LEVERAGE

Debt / EBITDA 3.5x 3.2x 2.3x 2.2x 1.7x 1.9x

Net Debt / EBITDA 0.1x 0.0x -0.2x -0.1x -0.1x -0.2x

All figures and ratios are calculated using Moody's estimates and standard adjustments.Source: Moody’s Financial Metrics™

8 12 March 2019 Renault S.A.: Update to credit analysis following change in outlook

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MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CORPORATES

Exhibit 7

Moody's-adjusted debt breakdownRenault S.A. (automotive only)

(in EUR Millions)FYE

Dec-13

FYE

Dec-14

FYE

Dec-15

FYE

Dec-16

FYE

Dec-17

LTM

Jun-18

As Reported Debt 10,286.0 11,144.0 10,504.0 10,980.0 10,149.0 10,500.0

Pensions 1,385.0 1,572.0 1,427.0 1,592.0 1,549.0 1,549.0

Operating Leases 702.0 696.0 675.0 672.0 756.0 756.0

Non-Standard Adjustments -297.0 -736.0 -465.0 -626.0 -298.0 -360.0

Moody's-Adjusted Debt 12,076.0 12,676.0 12,141.0 12,618.0 12,156.0 12,445.0

All figures are calculated using Moody’s estimates and standard adjustments.Source: Moody’s Financial Metrics™

Exhibit 8

Moody's-adjusted EBITDA breakdownRenault S.A. (automotive only)

(in EUR Millions)FYE

Dec-13

FYE

Dec-14

FYE

Dec-15

FYE

Dec-16

FYE

Dec-17

LTM

Jun-18

As Reported EBITDA 4,193.0 4,800.0 5,744.0 6,830.0 8,345.0 7,766.0

Pensions 41.0 53.0 -13.0 -4.0 -92.0 -92.0

Operating Leases 234.0 232.0 225.0 224.0 252.0 252.0

Capitalized Development Costs -732.0 -842.0 -874.0 -903.0 -1,209.0 -1,417.0

Unusual -328.0 -232.0 66.0 -321.0 -96.0 -78.0

Moody's-Adjusted Debt 3,408.0 4,011.0 5,148.0 5,826.0 7,200.0 6,431.0

All figures are calculated using Moody’s estimates and standard adjustments.Source: Moody’s Financial Metrics™

Exhibit 9

Peer snapshotRenault S.A. (automotive only)

(in US millions)FYE

Dec-16

FYE

Dec-17

LTM

Jun-18

FYE

Mar-17

FYE

Mar-18

LTM

Sep-18

FYE

Dec-16

FYE

Dec-17

LTM

Jun-18

FYE

Dec-16

FYE

Dec-17

LTM

Sep-18

FYE

Dec-16

FYE

Dec-17

LTM

Sep-18

Revenue $53,735 $63,135 $67,066 $99,316 $97,515 $96,449 $59,621 $73,548 $90,859 $122,636 $125,127 $135,084 $21,159 $24,722 $28,511

EBITA Margin % 7.7% 8.9% 7.5% 5.9% 4.5% 3.9% 4.0% 3.7% 3.7% 3.9% 5.5% 5.8% 5.0% 5.5% 4.5%

Operating Margin % 3.9% 3.8% 3.4% 5.1% 3.1% 2.3% 3.8% 3.6% 3.8% 3.7% 4.9% 5.2% 4.3% 4.9% 4.0%

Debt / EBITDA 2.2x 1.7x 1.9x 0.4x 0.5x 0.5x 2.8x 3.1x 2.9x 3.5x 2.4x 2.0x 2.1x 1.9x 1.8x

(Cash + Mkt Sec) / Debt 105.3% 106.8% 108.4% 240.4% 239.9% 234.6% 110.0% 94.6% 103.3% 57.1% 51.7% 54.7% 124.3% 100.2% 86.4%

RCF / Debt 24.5% 21.3% 22.2% 201.3% 145.6% 135.6% 27.3% 23.8% 27.7% 24.8% 33.9% 43.7% 49.0% 43.0% 42.7%

FCF / Debt 8.1% 4.1% 4.6% 121.6% 36.6% -3.0% 8.3% -2.0% 6.3% 5.8% 4.7% 16.4% 22.4% -9.5% 4.3%

EBITA / Interest Expense 7.8x 9.4x 9.1x 22.3x 17.9x 14.7x 3.5x 4.1x 4.5x 1.9x 3.3x 3.8x 5.8x 7.5x 6.0x

Baa3 Positive A2 RUR Down Ba1 Positive Ba2 Positive Ba1 Stable

Renault S.A. Nissan Motor Co., Ltd. Peugeot S.A. Fiat Chrysler Automobiles N. Volvo Car AB

All figures and ratios are calculated using Moody’s estimates and standard adjustments. FYE = Fiscal year-end. LTM = Last 12 months.Source: Moody’s Financial Metrics

9 12 March 2019 Renault S.A.: Update to credit analysis following change in outlook

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MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE CORPORATES

Ratings

Exhibit 10Category Moody's RatingRENAULT S.A.

Outlook StableIssuer Rating Baa3Senior Unsecured -Dom Curr Baa3Commercial Paper -Dom Curr P-3Other Short Term -Dom Curr (P)P-3

BANCO RCI BRASIL S.A.

Outlook StableBank Deposits -Fgn Curr Ba3/NPBank Deposits -Dom Curr Ba1/NP

RCI BANQUE SUCURSAL ARGENTINA

Outlook StableIssuer Rating -Dom Curr Ba2

RCI BANQUE

Outlook PositiveBank Deposits Baa1/P-2Senior Unsecured Baa1Subordinate MTN -Dom Curr (P)Ba1Commercial Paper P-2Other Short Term -Dom Curr (P)P-2

ROMBO COMPANIA FINANCIERA S.A.

Outlook StableBank Deposits -Fgn Curr B3/NPBank Deposits -Dom Curr Ba3/NPSenior Unsecured -Dom Curr Ba3NSR Senior Unsecured Aa1.arNSR Senior Unsecured MTN Aa1.ar

Source: Moody's Investors Service

10 12 March 2019 Renault S.A.: Update to credit analysis following change in outlook

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Contacts

Stanislas Duquesnoy +49.69.70730.781VP-Sr Credit [email protected]

Matthias Hellstern +49.69.70730.745MD-Corporate [email protected]

Falk Frey +49.69.70730.712Senior Vice [email protected]

Timo Fittig +44.207.772.5277Associate [email protected]

CLIENT SERVICES

Americas 1-212-553-1653

Asia Pacific 852-3551-3077

Japan 81-3-5408-4100

EMEA 44-20-7772-5454

12 12 March 2019 Renault S.A.: Update to credit analysis following change in outlook

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