randomness: does randomness rule our lives? omnilore 14b ran © ronnie lemmi – may 2014...

RANDOMNESS: DOES RANDOMNESS RULE OUR LIVES? OMNILORE 14b RAN Ronnie Lemmi May 2014 Availability BiasAvailability Bias

Availability Bias Availability is a process of judging frequency by the ease with which instances come to mind. Our expectations about the frequency of events are distorted by the prevalence and emotional intensity of the messages to which we are exposed. An uncorroborated statement can be widely seen as true merely because the media has repeated it Psychologist Daniel Kahneman Nobel Prize in Economics

Definition Of Availability Bias Availability bias causes people to overestimate the probability of events associated with memorable or vivid occurrences. The availability bias operates on the notion that if something can be recalled it must be important. People tend to heavily weigh their judgments toward more recent information, making new opinion biased toward that latest news.

Examples of Availability Bias Influenced by Media After seeing news stories about child abductions, people may judge that the likelihood of this event is event is greater. Children are more likely to die in an accident than get abducted. Media coverage can help fuel a persons bias with widespread and extensive coverage of unusual events such as homicide and airline accidents and less coverage of more routine, less sensational events such as common diseases or car accidents.

Examples Many people think that the likelihood of dying from shark attacks is greater than that of dying from being hit by falling airplane parts. Dying from falling airplane parts is 30 times greater than dying from shark attacks. When a shark attack occurs, the deaths are widely reported in the media, but deaths as a result of being hit by falling airplane parts are rarely reported in the media.

Examples Where an anecdote is used to support a bias, the availability bias is involved. In these instances the emotional impact of that example becomes more credible than actual statistical probability. Example of this is when a person argues that cigarette smoking is not unhealthy because his grandmother smoked three packs of cigarettes each day and lived to be 100 years old.

Examples Availability Bias and the Stock Market One consequence of having emotion in the stock market is the overreaction toward new information. Good news should raise a business share price accordingly, and that gain in share price should not decline if no new information has been released. Often participants in the stock market predictably overreact to new information creating a larger than appropriate effect on a securitys price.

A self sustaining chain of events which may start from media reports of a relatively minor event and lead up to public panic and large scale government action. Sometimes, a media story about a risk catches the attention of a segment of the public, which becomes aroused and worried. This emotional reaction becomes a story in itself, prompting additional coverage in the media, which in turn produces greater concern and involvement. Availability cascade

Availability Cascade The danger is increasingly exaggerated as the media competes for attention grabbing headlines Scientists and others who try to dampen the increasing fear attract little attention, most of it hostile Anyone who claims the danger is overstated is suspected of association with a cover-up

The Alar scare of 1989 was a hoax based on junk science perpetrated by the Natural Resource Defense Council, Consumers Union, 60 minutes on CBS, and the actress Meryl Streep. Alar was in fact a safe chemical that was absolutely essential for the health of the nations apple industry, and that it was forced from the market by environmental and consumer extremists at a cost to the industry of at least $100 million The Alar Story An Example of Availability Cascade Two different opinions

This chemical was sprayed on apples to regulate growth and improve appearance. Scare began with press stories that the chemical consumed in gigantic doses caused cancerous tumors in mice. Stories frightened the public followed by more media coverage. Apple products became objects of fear. FDA banned the drug. Subsequent research confirmed that it might pose a very small risk as a carcinogen. Alar scare 1989

How a PR firm executed the Alar scare In October 1988 NRDC (Natural Resources Defense counsel) hired Fenton communications to undertake the media campaign for its report. The goal was to create so many repetitions of NRDCs message that average American consumers could not avoid hearing it. The Alar story was reported in popular womens magazines, television talk shows, local newspapers Science of Availability

Mothers and Others for Pesticide Limits In October 1988 Fenton Communications released the media campaign report. The report calculated childrens actual exposure levels to carcinogenic and neurotoxic pesticides. The campaign was based on the NRCDs report Intolerable risk; pesticides in our childrens food Meryl Streep read the study and agreed to serve as spokesperson for it. It was agreed that one week after the studys release, Streep and other prominent citizens would announce the formation of NRDCs new project, Mothers and Others for Pesticide Limits.

CBS-TV 60 Minutes On Feb 28, 1989, CBS-TV 60 minutes aired an expose titled A is for Apple which became the beginning in a carefully planned publicity campaign developed for the Natural Resources Defense Council. (NDRC) It chose the firm Fenton Communications, which developed and helped distribute public service announcements featuring Meryl Streep, who warned that Alar had been detected in apple juice bottled for children.

A major corporate PR firm was hired by the apple growers which also put forward $2 million dollar advertising budget. Apple growers in the state of Washington filed a libel lawsuit against CBS, Natural Resource Defense Counsel and Fenton Communications claiming that the scare had cost them $100 million and sent orchards into bankruptcy. The supreme Court upheld without comment an appeals court decision dismissing a $250 million class-action suit filed against 60 minutes by a group of Washington state apple growers, alleging the show falsely disparaged their product. The apple industry struck back and created their own availability cascade

Conclusions All the evidence against Alar in 1973 was based on the findings of tumors in mice, while the same doses of chemical did not cause tumors in rats. The validity of the study was questioned. Both the EPA and the Agency for Research on Cancer labeled Alar as a probable carcinogen. No studies have conclusively proven the Alar is carcinogenic to humans. The apple industry abandoned the use of Alar, and the market for apples quickly rebounded. In 5 years, the growers profits were 50% higher than they had been at the time of the 60 minutes broadcast. Alar is now used for plants which do not produce food.

Once Alar was removed from the market, the 60 minutes story about cancer risks to children was replaced with stories of apple growers driven into bankruptcy. The National Academy of Sciences (NAS) in 1993 confirmed the central message of the Alar case, which is that infants and young children need greater protection from pesticides. The NSA called for an overhaul of regulatory procedures specifically to protect kids, finding that federal calculations for allowable levels do not account for: childrens increased consumption of fruit, for childrens lower body weight, or for their heightened sensitivity to toxic exposure. Another legacy of the Alar controversy veggie hate crime bill. The laws of 13 states make it illegal to make knowingly false defamatory statements about fruits, vegetables and meat. Conclusions

Pink Slime Another Example of Availability Cascade Pink slime is the common name for a controversial beef product. The names used in the meat industry are lean finely textured beef abbreviated LFTB. The product is used as a filler or to reduce the fat content of ground beef. It is produced by processing low-grade beef trimmings which contain fat and small amounts of lean beef and mechanically separating lean beef from fat. The recovered beef material is processes, heated and treated with gaseous ammonia to kill E. coli, salmonella, and other bacteria. In 2001 the US Department of Agriculture approved the product for human consumption.

Eldon Roth inventor of this process and owner of Beef Products Inc. 2012 Roth was inducted into the Nebraska Business hall of fame celebrating his lifes work. He invented a method of extracting lean beef from the scraps that would otherwise have been discarded during the butchering process. He was hailed as an innovator in his field, not only for utilizing previously wasted beef, but also for an almost fanatical concern with food safety. Five weeks later Roth and BPI were the focus of a CBS news investigation report.

CBS News Report An 11 segment news investigation slammed the processor for putting pink slime in the American food supply and for misleading consumers about its beef products. Soon after, BPI was forced to shut 3 of its four plants and lay off more than 700 employees after fast food chains, supermarkets, and public schools stopped serving beef that included LFTB. The company went from producing 5 million pound of LFTB per week to less than 2 million. The company he built over 30 years was nearly destroyed in 30 days.

Some negative advertising about pink slime

False information presented in magazine and news reports Described as fatty sweepings from the slaughterhouse floors. Described a high incidence of salmonella, E. coli and other contaminants present in the treated product. Complained about ammonia in the meat. Ammonia is an essential nutrient already present in food including meat.

BPI AVAILABILITY CASCADE PBI launched an extensive public relations campaign, including the web site beefisbeef.com in an attempt to inform the public and correct what it says is widespread misinformation about LFTB. Fresh trimmings from sirloins, rib eyes, and other whole muscle cuts of beef are sent through a patented process that separates the lean beef from the fat to make leaner beef trimming.

Availability Cascade Experts have stated that the additional beef made available by this process is saving consumers 5-10% on lean ground meat. For over 20 years this lean beef has made ground beef a healthy choice while maintaining the quality consumers expect. 1.5 million less head of cattle 97 million less bushels of corn 375 billion less gallons of water 600 thousand less acres of land

Lawsuit BPI filed a $1.2 billion lawsuit against ABC News, lead anchor Diane Sawyer and others, claiming that those defendants published around 200 false and disparaging statements about BPI an LFTB. The company and its product which has never been found to be unsafe, unhealthy, or to have caused food borne illnesses were victims of an insidious viral internet program that wedged them between two powerful and opposing forces: the need to feed millions cheaply, and the growing desire of Americans to know exactly what they are eating

Update on Lawsuit March 2014 ABC News failed to persuade a South Dakota judge to dismiss a $1.2 billion defamation lawsuit complaining about a series of reports that referred to its signature product as pink slime. The suit was for product disparagement and interference with business relationships. She stated the of the term pink slime with a food product can reasonably interpreted as implying that the food product is not meat and is not fit to eat In seeking to dismiss the case, ABC had argued that it never said BPI product was unsafe, and that the case was an attempt to decrease media coverage of the industry and inhibit free speech.

On Feb. 26, 1989, CBS-TV 60 minutes broke the story to an audience of 40 million viewers. Titled A is for Apple which became the beginning of a carefully planned publicity campaign developed for the Natural Resources Defense counsel

In 1984, The EPA announced that it was investigating the lifetime cancer risks among people eating apples and peanuts sprayed with Alar. Conclusion of the study : It might be causing as many as 100 cancers per million people exposed to it in their diet for a lifetime. The official threshold for concern within EPA at that time was one cancer in a million exposed people, so Alar was thought to create a human health hazard at least 100 times as great as the agency considered acceptable By 1989 the states of Massachusetts and New York had banned the chemical and the American Academy of Pediatrics was urging a similar ban at the federal level.

Once Alar was removed from the market, the 60 minutes story about cancer risks to children was replaced with stories of apple growers driven into bankruptcy. The Alar counter attack was led by Elisabeth Whelan and ACSH (American Council on Science and Health) 1990-1995). In its version Alar was a beneficial and safe chemical that had been forced off the marker by a deliberate scare campaign.

The Consumers Union in its report on the Alar issue, noted that its own tests on apples showed lower risk than the EPAs estimate only 5 cancers per million instead of 100. In 1989 CBS-TV 60 Minutes aired an expose titled A is for Apple which became the beginning of a carefully planned publicity campaign developed for the Natural Resources Defense Council. No studies have conclusively proven that Alar is carcinogenic to humans. Alar was voluntarily removed from the market for use on food producing plants. Alar continues to be used on plants that do not produce food.

Between 1945 1966 the USDA licensed nearly 60,000 individual pesticides. In 1966, when Alar entered the market the Uniroyal Corporation had received a government license to sell it for use on apples and peanuts. Alar is not a pesticide as many mistakenly call It. It is a growth regulator, the stop drop wonder chemical. It doesnt kill pests but it prevents fruit from dropping to the ground too early. As a consequence, Alar provided economic benefits to apple growers who could harvest their crop over longer period, easing labor issues. The benefit to consumers was a cosmetically enhanced apple that stayed crunchier a bit longer. History of the use of Alar

Alar was manufactured by mixing succinic anhydride (daminozide)with UDMH (1,1,dimethylhydrazine) a toxic component of rocket fuel. In tests of carcinogenicity UDHM proves to be about 1000 times as powerful as Alar. Concerns about the health impact of Alar began in 1973 The US Environmental Protection Agency opened an investigation of Alars hazards in 1980 In 1984, the EPA re-opened its investigation, concluding in 1985 that both Alar and UDMH were probable human carcinogens.

randomness: does randomness rule our lives? omnilore 14b ran © ronnie lemmi – may 2014...

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