radiological assessments for the resettlement of rongelap in the republic of the marshall islands
TRANSCRIPT
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title:RadiologicalAssessmentsforResettlementofRongelapintheRepublicoftheMarshallIslands
author:publisher: NationalAcademiesPress
isbn10|asin: 0309050499printisbn13: 9780309050494ebookisbn13: 9780585142555
language: English
subject
Radioactivepollution--MarshallIslands--RongelapAtoll,Radioactivefallout--Toxicology--MarshallIslands--RongelapAtoll.
publicationdate: 1994lcc: RA1231.R2N3531994ebddc: 363.17/99/099683
Radioactivepollution--MarshallIslands--
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subject: RongelapAtoll,Radioactivefallout--Toxicology--MarshallIslands--RongelapAtoll.
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RadiologicalAssessmentsforResettlementofRongelapintheRepublicoftheMarshallIslands
CommitteeonRadiologicalSafetyintheMarshallIslandsBoardonRadiationEffectsResearch
CommissiononLifeSciencesNationalResearchCouncil
NatioanlAcademyPressWashington,D.C.1994
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NationalAcademyPress2101ConstitutionAvenue,N.W.,Washington,D.C.20418
TheprojectthatisthesubjectofthisreportwasapprovedbytheGoverningBoardoftheNationalResearchCouncil,whosemembersaredrawnfromthecouncilsoftheNationalAcademyofSciences,theNationalAcademyofEngineering,andtheInstituteofMedicine.Themembersofthecommitteeresponsibleforthereportwerechosenfortheirspecialcompetenciesandwithregardforappropriatebalance.
ThisreporthasbeenreviewedbyagroupotherthantheauthorsaccordingtoproceduresapprovedbyaReportReviewCommitteeconsistingofthemembersoftheNationalAcademyofSciences,theNationalAcademyofEngineering,andtheInstituteofMedicine.
ThisprojectwaspreparedunderGrantNo.DE-FG05-92EH89138betweentheNationalAcademyofSciencesandtheDepartmentofEnergy.
Cover:OceanbeachonRongelapIsland;photobyEvanDouple.
LibraryofCongressCatalogCardNo.94-65989InternationalStandardBookNumber0-309-05049-9
B-328
Additionalcopiesofthisreportareavailablefrom:
NationalAcademyPress2101ConstitutionAve.,NWBox285Washington,DC20055800-624-6242202-334-3313(intheWashingtonMetropolitanArea)
Copyright1994bytheNationalAcademyofSciences.Allrights
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reserved.
PrintedintheUnitedStatesofAmerica
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CommitteeonRadiologicalSafetyintheMarshallIslands
JAMESV.NEEL(Chairman),DepartmentofHumanGenetics,UniversityofMichigan,AnnArbor
STUARTC.FINCH(ViceChairman),RobertWoodJohnsonMedicalSchool,Camden,NewJersey
BRUCEB.BOECKER,InhalationToxicologyResearchInstitute,Albuquerque,NewMexico
LAURENCEM.CARUCCI,DepartmentofSociology,MontanaStateUniversity,Bozeman
JESSEM.CLEVELAND,U.S.GeologicalSurvey(ret.),Boulder,Colorado
PHILIPM.DIXON,SavannahRiverEcologyLaboratory,Aiken,SouthCarolina
JANETL.GREGER,UniversityofWisconsin,Madison
WAYNEC.HANSON,LosAlamosScientificLaboratory(ret.),Bellingham,Washington
NEALS.NELSON,EnvironmentalProtectionAgency,Washington,D.C.
RICHARDV.OSBORNE,ChalkRiverLaboratories,Canada
CHARLESE.ROESSLER,UniversityofFlorida,Gainesville
JOSEPHC.SCHOOLAR,BaylorCollegeofMedicine,Houston,Texas
NationalResearchCouncilStaff
D.DENNISMAHLUM,StudyDirectoruntilFebruary28,1993
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LARRYH.TOBUREN,StudyDirectorasofFebruary1,1993
JOHND.ZIMBRICK,DirectorasofJuly5,1993
DORISE.TAYLOR,AdministrativeAssistant
NORMANGROSSBLATT,Editor
SPONSOR'SPROJECTOFFICER
R.ThomasBell,DepartmentofEnergy
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BoardonRadiationEffectsReasearch
WARRENK.SINCLAIR(Chairman),NationalCouncilonRadiationProtection&Measurements(ret.),Bethesda,Maryland
DOUGLASGRAHN,ArgonneNationalLaboratory(ret.),Madison,Indiana
ERICJ.HALL,ColumbiaUniversity,NewYork,NewYork
MAUREENM.HENDERSON,FredHutchinsonCancerResearchCenterandUniversityofWashington,Seattle
LEONARDS.LERMAN,MassachusettsInstituteofTechnology,Cambridge
JOHNB.LITTLE,HarvardUniversity,Cambridge,Massachusetts
JONATHANM.SAMET,NewMexicoTumorRegistry,UniversityofNewMexico,Albuquerque
THOMASS.TENFORDE,BattellePacificNorthwestLaboratories,Richland,Washington
ARTHURC.UPTON,NewYorkUniversityMedicalCenter(ret.),NewYork,NewYork(untilJune30,1993)
H.RODNEYWITHERS,UCLAMedicalCenter,LosAngeles,California(effectiveJuly1,1993)
NationalResearchCouncilStaff
JOHND.ZIMBRICK,DirectorasofJuly5,1993
CHARLESW.EDINGTON,DirectoruntilMay17,1993
EVANB.DOUPLE,SeniorProgramOfficer
D.DENNISMAHLUM,SeniorProgramOfficeruntilFebruary28,
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1993
LARRYH.TOBUREN,SeniorProgramOfficer
CATHERINES.BERKLEY,AdministrativeAssociate
MAURITADOW-MASSEY,ProjectAssistant
DORISE.TAYLOR,AdministrativeAssistant
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CommissiononLifeSciences
THOMASD.POLLARD(Chairman),JohnsHopkinsMedicalSchool,Baltimore,Maryland
BRUCEN.AMES,UniversityofCalifornia,Berkeley
JOHNC.BAILAR,III,McGillUniversity,Montreal,Canada
J.MICHAELBISHOP,UniversityofCaliforniaMedicalCenter,SanFrancisco
JOHNE.BURRIS,MarineBiologicalLaboratory,WoodsHole,Massachusetts
MICHAELT.CLEGG,UniversityofCalifornia,Riverside
GLENNA.CROSBY,WashingtonStateUniversity,Pullman
LEROYE.HOOD,UniversityofWashington,Seattle
MARIANE.KOSHLAND,UniversityofCalifornia,Berkeley
RICHARDE.LENSKI,MichiganStateUniversity,EastLansing
EMILA.PFITZER,HoffmannLaRoche,Inc.,Nutley,NewJersey
MALCOLMC.PIKE,USCSchoolofMedicine,LosAngeles,California
HENRYC.PITOT,III,UniversityofWisconsin,Madison
PAULG.RISSER,MiamiUniversity,Oxford,Ohio
JONATHANM.SAMET,NewMexicoTumorRegistry,UniversityofNewMexico,Albuquerque
HAROLDM.SCHMECK,JR.,Armonk,NewYork
CARLAJ.SHATZ,UniversityofCalifornia,Berkeley
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SUSANS.TAYLOR,UniversityofCaliforniaatSanDiego,LaJolla
P.ROYVAGELOS,Merck&Co.,Inc.,WhitehouseStation,NewJersey
JOHNL.VANDEBERG,SouthwestFoundationforBiomedicalResearch,SanAntonio,Texas
TORSTENN.WIESEL,RockefellerUniversity,NewYork,NewYork
NationalResearchCouncilStaff
PaulGilman,ExecutiveDirector
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TheNationalAcademyofSciencesisaprivate,nonprofit,self-perpetuatingsocietyofdistinguishedscholarsengagedinscientificandengineeringresearch,dedicatedtothefurtheranceofscienceandtechnologyandtotheiruseforthegeneralwelfare.UpontheauthorityofthechartergrantedtoitbytheCongressin1863,theAcademyhasamandatethatrequiresittoadvisethefederalgovernmentonscientificandtechnicalmatters.Dr.BruceM.AlbertsispresidentoftheNationalAcademyofSciences.
TheNationalAcademyofEngineeringwasestablishedin1964,underthecharteroftheNationalAcademyofSciences,asaparallelorganizationofoutstandingengineers.Itisautonomousinitsadministrationandintheselectionofitsmembers,sharingwiththeNationalAcademyofSciencestheresponsibilityforadvisingthefederalgovernment.TheNationalAcademyofEngineeringalsosponsorsengineeringprogramsaimedatmeetingnationalneeds,encourageseducationandresearch,andrecognizesthesuperiorachievementsofengineers.Dr.RobertM.WhiteisthepresidentoftheNationalAcademyofEngineering.
TheInstituteofMedicinewasestablishedin1970bytheNationalAcademyofSciencestosecuretheservicesofeminentmembersofappropriateprofessionsintheexaminationofpolicymatterspertainingtothehealthofthepublic.TheInstituteactsundertheresponsibilitygiventotheNationalAcademyofSciencesbyitscongressionalchartertobeanadvisortothefederalgovernmentand,uponitsowninitiative,toidentifyissuesofmedicalcare,research,andeducation.Dr.KennethI.ShineispresidentoftheInstitute.
TheNationalResearchCouncilwasorganizedbytheNationalAcademyofSciencesin1916toassociatethebroadcommunityofscienceandtechnologywiththeAcademy'spurposesoffurtheringknowledgeandadvisingthefederalgovernment.Functioningin
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accordancewithgeneralpoliciesdeterminedbytheAcademy,theCouncilhasbecometheprincipaloperatingagencyofboththeNationalAcademyofSciencesandtheNationalAcademyofEngineeringinprovidingservicestothegovernment,thepublic,andthescientificandengineeringcommunities.TheCouncilisadministeredjointlybybothAcademiesandtheInstituteofMedicine.Dr.BruceM.AlbertsandDr.RobertM.Whitearechairmanandvicechairman,respectively,oftheNationalResearchCouncil.
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Preface
Background
TheCommitteeonRadiologicalSafetyintheMarshallIslandswasestablishedbytheNationalResearchCouncilinresponsetoarequestfromtheU.S.DepartmentofEnergy(DOE)toassistthedepartmentinevaluatingtheradiologicalsafetyoftheMarshallIslands,particularlyRongelapAtoll.Theneedforsuchanevaluationstemsfromquestionsoverthepossibilityofmeetingtheradiologicalprovisionsofthememorandumofunderstanding(MOU)betweentheRepublicoftheMarshallIslandsandtheUnitedStatesregardingtheresettlementofRongelapAtoll.TheissueofresettlementitselforiginatedinthedesireoftheMarshallesetoreturntotheatollsfromwhichtheywereevacuatedasaconsequenceofnuclear-weaponstestingbytheUnitedStatesduringthe1940sand1950s.TheNationalResearchCouncilwasaskedtoreviewthescientificstudiesundertakenbyDOE1todeterminethepotentialradiologicalhazard,ifany,topersonswhomightreturntoliveonRongelapAtoll.
AcrucialprovisionoftheMOUisthatresettlementwilloccuronlyifnopersonreturningtoRongelapandsubsistingonanative-foods-onlydietwillreceiveacalculatedannualwhole-bodyradiationdoseequivalentofmorethan100mremabovebackground.ThescopeofradiologicalstudiesneededtoassurecompliancewiththisMOUcanbefocusedsomewhatinthepresentcontextbecauseoftheradioactivedecayandnormalweatheringprocessesthathastakenplaceinthe40yearssincetheBRAVOdetonation.Atthepresenttime,theonlyisotopesthatcontributesignificantlytothedoseonRongelaparethoseofstrontium-90,cesium-137,plutonium-239,plutonium-240,andamericium-241.Ofthese,cesium-137accountsformorethan
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90%oftheestimateddose,strontium-90isthesecondmostsignificantcontributionat2-5%,andthetransuranicnuclidescontributelessthat5%tothetotalestimateddose(KerchnerandRobison,1993).ThisnarrowsconsiderablytheefforttoinvestigateandmodelthepotentialdosesreceivedfromfalloutradionuclidesbythosewhomightchoosetoresettleonRongelap.
AnotherprovisionoftheMOUthatisofimportancetothepeopleofRongelapastheyconsiderresettlementisanactionlimitof17pCi/gforconcentrationsofplutoniumintheisland'ssoils.ThisactionlevelintheMOUwasbasedonaU.S.EnvironmentalProtectionAgency(EPA)actionvalueof0.2µCi/m2forprotectionofthepublicfromradionuclidesintheenvironment.TheEPAactionlevelwasdevelopedforapplicationtorecentcontamination,thusalloftheradioactivitywasconsideredtobeconcentratedwithinthetop1cmofthesoil.TheMOUactionlimitof17pCi/gwasderivedbyDOEfromthis0.2µCi/cm2EPAguideline
1Throughoutthisreport,referencestoDOEandtoworkperformedbyDOEshouldbeconsideredtoincludeactionsundertakenbyDOEanditspredecessors,includingtheAtomicEnergyCommissionandtheEnergyResearchandDevelopmentAgency.
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usingasoildensityof1.2g/cm3appropriatetoRongelapandassumingthattheradioactivitywasinthetop1cmofsoil.BecausethecontaminationonRongelaptookplacenearly40yearsagotheMOUconsidersthepotentialforsubsequentradionuclidemigrationinthesoilbyprovidingprovisionsforaveragingofthe17pCi/gradionuclideconcentrationoverthetop5cmofsoil.
Inthisreport,thecommitteerestrictsitsattentionlargelytothetechnicalaspectsoftheissuessurroundingresettlementofRongelapAtoll.Thecommitteerecognizes,however,thatmajor,andequallyimportant,social,ethnological,andpoliticalelementswillalsoinfluenceresettlementdecisionsbytheRongelappeople.Ithas,therefore,duringitsdeliberations,triedtomaintaindueconsiderationoffactorssuchasphysical,biological,logistical,cultural,andpsychologicalfactorsthatmayreasonablyapplytoormightcometobearontheresettlementoftheRongelappeopleandtheircontinuedwell-being.
ItisthedesireofallpartiesthatresettlementoccurinatimelyfashionbutwithoutsacrificingtheabilityoftheRongelappeopletopursuetheirliveswithoutanunacceptableriskfromradiation.Theproposedresettlementprogramisbilateral.Itssuccesswilldependonmutualityofpurposeandintent.Integraltotheprogrammustbeacommitmenttoinformation-sharingandtodirect,unambiguouscommunication.ThecommitteeassumesDOEwillensurethatallrelevantinformationanddocumentsinitspossessionaremadeavailabletotheRongelappeopleonrequestandthatallrecommendationsbythepresentNationalResearchCouncilcommitteewillbeforwardedtotheRepublicoftheMarshallIslandsandtotheRongelapResettlementProjectScientificPeerReviewGroup.
BecauseofthemanyreferencesmadeinthisreporttotheprovisionsoftheMOUbetweentheUnitedStatesandtheRepublicofthe
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MarshallIslands,thefulltextoftheMOUisprovidedasanappendix.Itshouldbenoted,however,thatthecommitteewasnotaskedtorevieworcommentontheprovisionsoftheMOU,asthesearetheresultofinternationalnegotiations,andwilldosoonlyasiteffectsthescientificstudiesneededtoprovideassurancesthatitsprovisionscanbemet.
ChargetoTheCommittee
DOErequestedtheassistanceofaNationalResearchCouncilcommitteetohelpitdecidewhether"goodscience"wasbeingusedindeterminingtheappropriatenessofresettlementofMarshallIslandsatollsthatwereaffectedbytheatmosphericfalloutfromnuclearweaponstestedintheregionin1946-1958.TheNationalResearchCouncilappointedagroupofeminentscientiststoreviewandproviderecommendationsonradiological-healthissuesintheMarshallIslands.ThisgroupwastoreviewandcommentonthescientificandtechnicalmeritoftheprocessesandproceduresusedbytheDOEtoevaluatetheresettlementpotentialofMarshallIslandsatollsaffectedbyfalloutandbyactualdetonations.Thecommittee,establishedintheBoardonRadiationEffectsResearchoftheNationalResearchCouncil,wasaskedtoprovideadviceonthescientificvalidityofthetechnicalstudies,includingcommentonthemethodologiesofinvestigationsofvariouskinds:determinationofbodyburdensbybioassay,dosemodelingforestimatingingestionandinhalationofradioactivematerials,modelingandconfirmatoryassaysofthesoil-to-foodpathway,remedialmeasurestoreduceplantuptakeofradioactivematerials,andtheapplicationofcurrentinternationalstandardsfor
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radiationdoselimitsinthisparticularenvironment.Particularemphasiswastobeplacedontheevaluationofproceduresforenvironmentalmonitoringanddoseassessmentnecessarytodeterminethedosestopeoplewhowishedtoreturnandtoliveintheseatollareasandtoconsumelocal-onlyfoodsfromportionsofRongelapAtollandsurroundingatollsthatcansupportareturntotheirnativehabitsandwaysoflife.ThecommitteewasaskedtoreviewtheDOEprogramsandaccomplishments,comparethemwithcurrentpractices,andsuggestwhereadditionaldatamightberequiredforprudentdecision-makingastopotentialresettlement.Thecommitteeincludesnotonlyradiationscientists,butexpertsinanthropology,ecology,genetics,medicine,nutrition,psychology,andstatistics.
Specifically,thecommitteewasaskedtocarryoutthefollowingactivities:
ReviewandcommentontheapplicabilityofcurrentInternationalCommissiononRadiologicalProtection(ICRP)recommendationsonannualdoselimitsforgeneralpopulationsastheypertaintoanticipateddosecommitmentsafterresettlementinpotentiallycontaminatedareasoftheMarshallIslands.
Evaluateandcommentontheadequacyoffollowupanalyticaltechniquessuchaswhole-bodycountingtechniquesandurineassay,tomeasuretheaccumulationandeliminationofinternallydepositedradioactivematerialsinpeopleafterresettlementinpotentiallycontaminatedareas.
ReviewandevaluatemethodstoreducetheingestionandinhalationofradioactivematerialsbyinhabitantsoftheMarshallIslands,particularlypersonsthatresettleRongelapIslandandotherislandsintheRongelapAtoll.
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EvaluatetheradiologicalimplicationsofproposeddietaryregimensforpersonswhoresettleRongelapAtoll,takingintoaccountbothnativeandimportedfoodstuffsandtherangeofvariationindietamongindividuals,includingpersonsofdifferentagegroupsandbothsexes.
Adviseonthelong-termhealthconsequencesofvariousremedialactionsdirectedatthephysicalenvironmentthatmightbeproposedtoimprovethehabitabilityofislandsintheRongelapAtoll.
EvaluatemetabolicanddosimetrymodelsforingestedradioactivematerialstodeterminewhicharethemostvalidforapplicationtoinhabitantsoftheMarshallIslands.
Tomakethoseassessments,thecommitteewasaskedtoreviewrecentICRPreports,technicaldocuments,andotherdatarelevanttotheenvironmentalassessmentofRongelapAtolland,totheextentnecessary,drawonreportsofexperienceinotherMarshallIslandsareas.Thecommitteewasalsoaskedtoreviewthescientificliteratureonbioassaymethodsand,byintervieworothermeans,gathertheviewsofscientistsandotherpersonsfamiliarwiththeneedsoftheMarshallese.Theoverallaimofthecommittee'sactivitieswastoreviewand
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evaluatetheproceduresthatDOEscientistsuseintechnicalassessmentsconcerningthepotentialresettlementofislandsintheRongelapAtolland,asrequired,otherMarshallIslandatollsaffectedbytheatmosphericnuclear-weaponstests.
Inmeetingitscharge,thecommitteehadaccesstoreports(bothinternalandpublished)preparedbyDOEcontractorstaffthatcoveredthewiderangeandvariedaspectsoftheradiologicalassessmentsbeingconductedintheRepublicoftheMarshallIslands(RMI).Inaddition,thecommitteemembersvisitedDOEcontractorlaboratoriestoobservetheproceduresandfacilitiesdevelopedandappliedintheirradiologicalstudies,conductednumerousdiscussionswithDOEcontractorstaffandwithotherscientistsactivelyengagedintheinvestigationofconditionsintheMarshallIslands.Finally,committeemembersvisitedtheMarshallIslandstobetterconnectthewrittenreportswithfirst-handinsightsfromacloselookatthesitesofcurrentradiologicalstudiesonBikiniandRongelapandtoobservetheconditionsontheislandsofMejattoandEbeye,wheremanyofthepreviousresidentsofRongelapnowreside.DiscussionswereconductedbothattheNationalAcademyofSciencesfacilitiesinWashington,D.C.,andonMejattowiththeleadersofthepeopleofRongelapwhowishtoresettle.ThecommitteealsowasprovidedwithdetailedinformationonthestudiesbeingconductedbytheNationwideRadiologicalStudyoftheRMIandtheRongelapResettlementProject,bothdirectedbyDr.S.L.Simon.Dr.SimonisaradiationscientistwhohasbeenemployedbytheRepublicoftheMarshallIslandstoleadtheseprojects.
Thisreportisorganizedtoreflectstudyofthecharacteristicsofthelandandpeople,elementsofenvironmentalanddosemodeling,characteristicsofpotentialremediationactivities,theapplicabilityofdoselimits,andrecommendationsforpost-resettlementmonitoring.Chapter1isanintroductorydiscussionoftheenvironmentaland
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culturalfactorsthatunderliethedesiresofthepeopleofRongelaptoresettletheirislandhomes;italsoprovidesageneraldiscussionofthesourcesandmeasurementsofradiationuptothepresenttime.Chapters2-6evaluatethetechnicalactivitiesthathavebeenundertakentoassesstheradiologicalconditionsonRongelap.Chapter7addressestheapplicabilityofdoselimitsindiscussionsofresettlement.Chapter8considerstheapplicabilityofpossibleremedialactionsastheymightapplytoRongelap.Chapter9considerstheapplicabilityofcurrenttechnologytosupportthepost-resettlementenvironmentalandbiologicalmonitoringrequiredtomeettheconditionsspecifiedintheMOUthatwassignedbyrepresentativesofthepeopleofRongelap,theRepublicoftheMarshallIslands,DOE,andtheU.S.DepartmentoftheInterior.
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AcknowledgementsThecommittee'sworkwasgreatlyfacilitatedbyanumberofpeopleandorganizations.WithintheU.S.,weareprimarilygratefultoDr.WilliamRobisonoftheLawrenceLivermoreNationalLaboratoryandDrs.L.C.Sun,A.Moorthy,E.Kaplan,andC.B.MeinholdoftheBrookhavenNationalLaboratory.OntheMarshallIslandstrip,Dr.KeithBaverstockandDr.StevenSimon,DirectorNationwideRadiologicalStudy,RepublicoftheMarshallIslands,wereinstrumentaltothecommittee'sscientificactivities,andMr.KentHinerofRaytheontoitsphysicalneeds;Dr.RobisonprovidedanexcellentdescriptionofhisenvironmentalstudiesunderwayonBikini;andMr.RandyThomas,whoaccompaniedourgroupasarepresentativeoftheRongelapcommunity,wasinstrumentalindescribingtheimportanceoftheislandstotheirwayoflife.ThecommitteealsobenefitedfromnumerousdiscussionwithrepresentativesoftheMarshallIslands,bothduringtheirvisitstotheU.S.andintheMarshallIslands,includingMr.PeterOliver,UnderSecretary,MinisterofForeignAffairs,RepublicoftheMarshallIslands;SenatorJohnsayRiklon,Rongelap/UtirikAtollLocalGovernmentCouncil;MayorBillietEdmond,RongelapAtollLocalGovernmentCouncil;andothers.Thenecessarycontactswith,andbriefingsby,theDepartmentofEnergywereablyhandledbyMr.ThomasBellandDr.HarryPettengill.Dr.DouglasGrahn,liaisonwiththeBoardonRadiationEffectsResearch,contributedmateriallytoouractivities.Finally,inthepersonsofDrs.DennisMahlum,LarryToburen,EvanDouple,andMs.DorisTaylor,thecommitteeenjoyedexcellentstaffsupport.
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ContentsExecutiveSummary 1
Conclusions 3
Recommendations 6
MarshalleseTranslationofExecutiveSummary T-1
1.Introduction 9
Environment 10
Culture 13
RadiationExposureandDose 16
2.EnvironmentSamplingandAnalysis 21
SamplingTechniques 21
SoilSampling 22
Foodstuff 26
Conclusions 36
AnalyticalTechniques 36
Conclusions 38
3.DietaryModels 41
UjelangDietModel 41
BNLDietModelfortheNorthernMarshallIslands 46
ExtrapolationfromDietModels 49
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Recommendations 50
4.MeasurementsonHumans 53
Whole-bodyCounting 54
Recommendations 56
UrinalysisforPlutonium 57
SensitivityRequirements 57
ReviewofActivities 59
Conclusionsandrecommendations 61
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5.DosimetryanditsApplication 63
DosimetryApproaches 64
Externaldose 64
Internaldose 65
IntakebyInhalationandIngestion 65
Intakethroughtheskin 65
AppraisalofCurrentDOEAssessments 66
ExternalDose 67
IntakeandInternalDose 68
Inhalation 68
Ingestion 69
Intakethroughskin 74
6.UncertaintyandVariableinDoseProjection 75
LLNLProbabilisticApproach 75
ScenarioApproach 79
Conclusions 80
7.DoseLimitsandTheirApplications 81
8.RecommendationsforRemedialActions 83
9.RecommendationsforPost-ResettlementProjection 85
RadiationDosimetry 85
MedicalConsiderations 86
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References 89
Glossary 95
Appendix 97
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ExecutiveSummaryTheCommitteeonRadiologicalSafetyintheMarshallIslandswasestablishedbytheNationalResearchCouncilinresponsetoarequestfromtheU.S.DepartmentofEnergy(DOE)toassistthedepartmentinevaluatingradiologicalconditionsoncertainatollsintheRepublicoftheMarshallIslands,especiallyRongelapAtoll.Theneedstemsfromtheprovisionsofamemorandumofunderstanding(MOU)establishedbetweentheRepublicoftheMarshallIslandsandtheUnitedStatesin1992.ThatagreementsetsoutcriteriaandstipulationspertainingtotheresettlementofRongelapAtoll.TheissueofresettlementitselforiginatedinthedesireforthepeopleoftheMarshallIslandstoreturntotheatollsfromwhichtheywereevacuatedasaconsequenceofnuclear-weaponstestingbytheUnitedStatesduringthe1940sand1950s.TheNationalResearchCouncilwasaskedtoreviewthescientificstudiesundertakenbytheU.S.DepartmentofEnergytodetermineifreliableandmodemscientificmethodologywasbeingusedtoassessthepotentialhazard,ifany,topersonswhomightreturntoliveonRongelapAtoll.AcrucialprovisionoftheMOUisthatresettlementwilloccuronlyifnopersonreturningtoRongelapandsubsistingonanative-foods-onlydietwillreceiveacalculatedannualwhole-bodyradiationdoseequivalentofmorethan100mremabovebackground.TheMOUalsopresentsanactionlevelof17pCi/gfortheconcentrationoftransuraniccontamination,i.e.,plutoniumandamericium,insoilsbelowwhichmitigationwillbeconsideredunnecessary.
TheassessmentoftheradiologicalconditionsonRongelapresultingfromtheU.S.testingprogramisnarrowedsomewhatbytheweatheringprocessesandnuclear-decaythathastranspiredduringthe40yearssincetheatollwascontaminated.Atthepresenttime,the
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isotopesthatwouldcontributesignificantlytothedosetoindividualswhomightresideonRongelaparethoseofstrontium-90,cesium-137,plutonium-239,plutonium-240,andamericium-241.Ofthese,cesium-137accountsformorethan90%oftheestimateddose,strontium-90providesthesecondmostsignificantcontributionat2-5%,andthetransuranicnuclidescontributelessthat5%tothetotalestimateddose.
ResettlementofthenorthernMarshallIslandsisaprecedent-settingactivity.Asfarasthiscommitteeisaware,thecurrenteffortstoresettletheMarshalleseareamongthefirstinwhichagovernmenthasundertakentofacilitateandmonitorthereturnofapopulationthatwasdisplacedbecauseofconcernsforradiationexposure.Theutilityofthecriteriaandproceduresusedandtheresultingprotocolmightextendwellbeyondthepresentsituation.ThepeopleofRongelapresettledtheirhomelandin1957onlytoleaveagainin1985''onthebeliefthatRongelapwasunsafeandthatDOEhadnottoldthetruthaboutradiationeitherwithrespecttoitscontaminationofthelandsandenvironmentofRongelapAtoll,orastoitsimpact
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uponthepeople.''1ItisimportantthatthecurrentefforttoassesstheradiologicalconditionsandtheirpotentialimpactsonthepeopleofRongelapavoidtheproblemsofthepast.
Initschargetothecommittee,DOEdirectedthecommitteetoreviewandcommentonthescientificandtechnicalmeritoftheprocessesandproceduresusedbyDOEanditscontractorsinitsevaluationoftheradiologicalconditionsonRongelapand,inshort,todeterminewhetheritsassessmentsmeetthestandardsofgoodscience.Thecommitteewasaskedtogiveattentionspecificallytoseveralsubjects,including:theappropriatenessofapplicationoftheInternationalCommissiononRadiologicalProtection's(ICRP)annualradiationdoselimitstothedosecommitmentsexpectedtofollowresettlement;theapplicabilityofmetabolicanddosimetrymodelsforingestedradioactivematerials;theimplicationsofproposeddietaryregimensforcalculateddoseprojections;theeffectofvariationsinthenative-to-importedfoodratioanddifferencesindietduetosex,age,orindividualpreference;themethodsproposedtoreduceexposuretoradioactivematerialsbyinhalationoringestion;theadequacyoffollow-upanalyticaltechniques;andthelong-termconsequencestohealthofproposedremediationoftheenvironment.
Inmeetingitscharge,thecommitteehadaccesstoreports(bothinternal,manyindraftform,andpublished)preparedbyDOEcontractorstaffthatcoveredthewiderangeandvariedaspectsoftheradiologicalassessmentsbeingconductedintheMarshallIslands.Inaddition,thecommitteemembersvisitedDOEcontractorlaboratoriestoobservetheproceduresandfacilitiesdevelopedandappliedinstudiesoftheradiologicalconditionsintheMarshallIslands,conductednumerousdiscussionswithDOEcontractorstaffandwithotherscientistsactivelyinvestigatingtheconditionsintheMarshallIslands,andtraveledtotheMarshallIslandsforacloselookatthesitesofcurrentradiologicalstudiesonBikiniandRongelapandto
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observetheconditionsontheislandsofMejattoandEbeye,wheremanyofthepreviousresidentsofRongelapnowreside.DiscussionswereconductedattheNationalAcademyofSciencesfacilitiesinWashington,D.C.,andonMejattowiththeleadersofthepeopleofRongelapwhowishtoresettle.ThecommitteealsowasprovidedwithdetailedinformationonthestudiesbeingconductedbytheNationwideRadiologicalStudyandtheRongelapResettlementProject,bothofwhichareunderthedirectionofDr.S.L.Simon,ahealthphysicistemployedbytheRepublicoftheMarshallIslands.
ThecommitteeconductedacomperhensivereviewandevaluationofthedataavailabletoitregardingtheinvestigativeproceduresandmodelsusedintheassessmentofthepotentialdosesthatmightbeincurredbythoseindividualswhochoosetoreturnandliveonRongelap.Inmanyinstancesthecommitteehadtorelyondiscussionswiththeinvestigators,andunpublishedproceduresandresultsprovidedininternalreportsinitsinvestigation;itseemsnottohavebeenthetraditionoftheseDOEprogramstopublishextensivelyinthepeerreviewedliterature.Basedonitsexperiences,thecommitteewouldrecommendthatinthefuturetheDepartmentofEnergyplacegreateremphasisonpublishingresultsobtainedinitsprogramsinthepeer-reviewedliterature.
1QuotedfromthetestimonyofSenatorJetonAnjain,MarshallIslands,onbehalfofthepeopleofRongelap,beforetheHouseCommitteeonAppropriations,SubcommitteeonInteriorandRelatedAgencies,TheHonorableSidneyR.Yates,Chairman,May9,1991.
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TheMOUthatwasnegotiatedbetweenthegovernmentsoftheUnitedStatesandtheRepublicoftheMarshallIslandsincludesaratherunusualrequirementinitspresentationofaradiationdoselimitintermsofthedosetothemaximallyexposedresident.Ingeneral,thetechniquesofradiationdosimetryarenotdevelopedfordeterminationofdosetothemaximallyexposedindividual;itisparticularlydifficultforapopulationoflimitedsizewherethestatisticalpowerfordeterminingdosesattheextremesofdosedistributionsislimited.Inaddition,thispopulationhasthepotentialtogatherfoodfromotherislandsthatmayhavehigherradiationburdens,andindividualsmay"binge"onfoodsofhigherthanaverageradionuclideconcentration,e.g.,coconutcrab.Thesepossibilitiesmakeestimatesofthedosetothemaximallyexposedresidenthighlyuncertain.ThecommitteewouldpreferthattheMOUconformtomorecommonradiationprotectionpracticesinstatingdoselimits,howeveritwasnotwithinthechargetothecommitteetoimplementorrecommendchangestotheMOU;theseprovisionsstemfromapreviouslynegotiatedinternationalagreement.Therefore,assessmentofdoseestimatesandapplicationofdosemodelingmustbeconsideredwithinthecontextoftheprovisionsoftheMOU.Althoughtheavailabledataandthestandardproceduresinradiationprotectiondonotlendthemselvestoanaccurateevaluationofthedosetothemaximallyexposedresident,thecommitteepresentsanassessmentoftheuseofstatistics,andofscenarios,inthereportinanattempttoaddressthisissue.
Conclusions
Thefollowingsummarizesthecommittee'sconclusionsbasedonitsreviewofallthematerialacquiredduringthecourseofitsdeliberationsconcerningthepointsenumeratedinthecommittee'scharge.
1.ApplicabilityofICRPrecommendationsonannualdoselimits.The
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committeewasaskedtocommentontheICRPrecommendationsforgeneralpopulationsasrelatedtotheresettlementofRongelapandotherMarshallIslandspopulations.BecausetheICRPrecommendationswerenotdevelopedwiththepresentsituationinmindandannualdoselimitshavealreadybeennegotiatedfortheresettlementofRongelapandformalizedintheMOU,thecommitteedidnotfeelthatitwouldserveausefulpurposetoundertakeadetaileddiscussionofexposurestandards.AlthoughtheICRPdoselimitsapplicabletothepublicwerenotdesignedforapplicationtoresettlementofpreviouslycontaminatedland,theICRPrecognizestheuseofnumericalcriteria,actionlevelsasdefinedintheMOU,asusefultoolsindecisionmaking.ThisissueisdiscussedinChapter7.
2.Environmentalsamplingandanalysis.Theprogramsforsystematicenvironmentalsamplingandradioassayofsoil,vegetation,water,andfoodstuffsonRongelaphavebeenbroadinscopeandofveryhighquality.Themajorfocusofthesestudieshasbeenontheconcentrationsofcesiuminthesoil,breadfruit,coconuts,andpandanusandtheconcentrationsoftransuranicelementsinthesoilastheprimaryradionuclidesofinterestinthisenvironment.TherigidapplicationofreliablelaboratorytechniquesbythescientistsoftheLawrenceLivermoreNationalLaboratory(LLNL),aDOElaboratory,hasprovidedasubstantial
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backgroundofinformationusefulintheestimationofpotentialradiationdosestotheresettlementpopulationfromexposuretoradiationintheenvironmentorthroughingestion.
3."HotSpots".ThepotentialforradionuclidehotspotsinunsampledregionsoftheislandhasbeenofnotableconcerntotheRongelapcommunity.However,giventherelativelyuniformdistributionofradionuclidesobservedintheLLNLgridusedtosamplesoilforradioactivityonRongelapandthenatureofthesourcecontamination,thecommitteeseeslittlereasontosuspecttheexistenceoflocalizedhighconcentrationsofradionuclides(plutonium,cesium,etc.)thatwouldcontributeto"hotspots."(Thecommitteehasacceptedthedefinitionofa"hotspot''asalocalregioninwhichtheradionuclideconcentrationhasavalueof10ormoretimesthemeanofthepresentobservations.)
4.Dietarymodels.TheinformationobtainedfromanumberofdietarysurveysdoesnotappearadequatetoprovideareasonableestimateofeithercurrentorindigenousdietsfortheRongelapcommunity.Basedontheavailableinformation,however,thecommitteeestimatesthatasizeablefractionofthepersonsonapurelynativediet,oranyotherdietthatincludesalargeintakeofcoconuts,couldexceedthe100-mrem,abovenormalbackground,annualdoseequivalentlimitspecifiedintheMOU.Theeffectsoftheseuncertaintiesinthedietmodelsarealsodiscussedinconclusions6and7below.
5.Measurementsonhumans.Thewhole-bodycountingsystemcurrentlyusedintheMarshallIslandsbyDOEcontractorstaffoftheBrookhavenNationalLaboratory(BNL)ispracticalandreliableformeasuringcesium-137bodyburdens.TomonitortheRongelappopulationadequatelyforwhole-bodyburdens,sothatsufficientlyaccurateinformationisobtainedtoassurecompliancewiththeMOU,itwillbenecessarytofollowindividualsintheresettlement
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populationsystematicallyforanindefiniteperiodoftime.IntheenvironmentofRongelap,strontium-90,plutonium-239,andplutonium-240areexpectedtomakeonlyaveryminorcontributiontodosesreceivedfromthelong-termexposure.Theaccuratemeasurementofplutonium-239andplutonium-240intheurineattheexpectedvery-lowlevelsisextremelydifficult,ifpossible,usingcurrenttechniques.Theproblemsinaccuratelymeasuringandinterpretingconcentrationsofplutoniuminurineneedtobeaddressed,improvementsdocumented,andpracticalconsiderationsandlimitationsunderstoodinanyprogramthatmightbesetuptomonitorplutoniumintake.
6.Dosimetryanditsapplication.DoseestimateshavebeenmadebyDOEcontractorpersonnelinaccordancewithacceptedmethodsputforthbytheICRP.External-doseestimatesareaccurateandsufficientlycomprehensive.Internaldoseestimatesthoserelatedtodosesreceivedthroughinhalation,ingestion,andabsorptionarelesscompletebecauseage-specificestimatesareabsent.Thisisnotaseriousdeficiencywithinthecontextofthepresentsituation,becauseestimatesforcumulativedosebasedonthe"referenceadult"tendtobeconservative.Inaddition,uncertaintiesintroducedbydosimetrictechniquesare,ingeneral,smallrelativetothoserelatedtodietaryinformationandindividualvariability.
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7.Uncertaintyindoseprojections.Twogenerallyacceptedmethodsareusedtoestimatedosestothemaximallyexposedindividual.Oneistheprobabilisticapproachthatusesthemeansandvariancesoftheradiologicalcomponentsusedinmodeling.Theotheristhescenarioapproach,whichspecifiescharacteristicsofsomemaximallyexposedresident,suchasage,sex,residence,anddiet.TheLLNLdoseprojectionsprincipallyusedasophisticatedprobabilisticapproach,buttheirvalidityislimitedbythesmallnumberofsamplesavailableforestimatingdistributionsofdietaryradionuclideintakeandretention.Onthebasisofusingascenarioapproach,thepresentcommitteeestimatesthattheaverageindividualconsumingalocal-foods-onlydietcouldreceiveanannualdoseof92-106mrem/y,dependingonthechoiceofdiet;thisestimatedrangeisbasedonwhatthecommitteefeelsisthemostlikelycombinationoflocalfoodsandenergyintake(seeChapter5,Table5-4).Uncertaintyinthedoseestimateforaparticularscenariodependsontheuncertaintyinenvironmentalsamplingdataanduncertaintyinthedosimetry.Uncertaintyintheprobabilisticapproachalsodependsonthosesourcesofuncertainty,aswellasuncertaintyinthedietaryintakeandinotherindividualcharacteristics.
8.Healtheffectsofremedialactions.Thecommitteebelievesthatthemajorenvironmentalremedialactionnowunderconsideration,theuseofpotassiumfertilizer,wouldnotadverselyaffectthehealthofthoseresidingonRongelapandinfact,totheextentthatitincreasedcultivaryields,wouldimprovethenutritionofthepopulation.PotassiumchlorideisafertilizercommonlyusedintheUnitedStateswithnoknownacuteorchronichealthhazardswhenusedforthispurpose.Asecond,morelocalremedialaction,clearingcontaminatedsoilfromthevillagearea,wouldlikewiseposenoadversehealtheffects.TheCommitteefeltthatstrippingtheislandoftheorganicsoiltoremovecontaminationintheupperportionsofthesoilwould,
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however,beunwiseowingtothefragileecologyoftheislandandthelongtimerequiredforregenerationoftheorganictopsoil.
Basedonthecommittee'sreviewofthescientificdata,thepotentialradiationdosesfromthedifferentsourcesofexposurethatmightaccruetothosewhochoosetoreturntoliveonRongelaparesummarizedinTable1.Herewepresentdosecontributionsfromtwooftheseveralpossibledietscenariosthatwerediscussedinthetext,namelythoseprovidedbythelocal-plus-imported-availablediet(scenarioA)presentedbyRobisonetal.(1993),andthelocal-foods-onlydietofRobisonetal.(1993),butwiththecaloricintakeadjustedtoreflectwhatthecommitteefeelsisamoreappropriateenergyintakeforanactivepopulation,i.e.,thesamecalorieintakeasobtainedforthelocal-plus-imported-foodsdiet(scenarioC).
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Table1.SummaryofprojectedAverageRadiationExposurestoRongelapResidents
ContributionstoDose mSv/y (mrem/y)
I. NATURALBACKGROUNDRADIATION
A.ExternalExposurea 0.22 (22)
B.InternalRadionuclidesb 2.0 (200)
Subtotal 2.22 (222)
II. ATTRIBUTABLETOFALLOUTc ScenarioAd ScenarioCe
A.Externalexposure 0.11 (11) 0.11 (11)
B.InternalExposure
1.Ingestion 0.17 (17) 0.95 (95)
2.Inhalation 0.0043 (0.43) 0.0043 (0.43)
0.29 (29) 1.06 (106)
TOTAL:NATURALANDFALLOUT2.51 (251) 3.28 (328)
aPrimarilycosmicradiation;externalbackgroundradiationfromnaturalterrestrialsourcesisverylowinthenorthernMarshallIslands(Robisonetal.,1993)
bFromnaturally-occurringradionuclides,suchaspotassium-40,polonium-210,andlead-210inadiethighinfishcontent(Robisonetal.,1993).
cProjectedfor1995.
dScenarioAisbasedonadietthatincludestheavailabilityofimportedfoods;thisdiet,fromtheworkofRobisonetal.,(1993),containsacaloricintakeof3208/d.
eScenarioCiscomposedofthelocal-foods-onlydietdescribedbyRobisonetal.(1993),butadjustedbythecommitteetocontainthesamecaloricintakeasscenarioA.
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Recommendations
Onthebasisofitsreview,thecommitteeoffersthefollowingrecommendations.
1.Becauseofthesubstantialuncertaintiesinthiscomplexandunprecedentedsituation,thecommitteerecommendsthatnocategoricalassurancesbegivenconcerningtheMOUrequirementthatnoindividualreceiveacalculatedannualradiationdoseequivalentofmorethan100mremabovebackground.SomepeoplereturningtoRongelapandsubsistingonalocal-food-onlydietmightreceiveanannualdoseinexcessof100mremabovebackgroundifthereisnoremedialaction.
2.IfthecitizensofRongelapdecidetoaccepttheuncertaintiesindoseestimatesandreturntoRongelap,theCommitteeendorsestwo,possiblytemporary,remedialactions:
Theimmediateand,asappropriate,continuingapplicationofpotassiumchlorideasafertilizertodecreaseuptakeofcesiuminfoodswherevertherearecoconutpalmsorpandanus
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treesontheisland.
Onresettlement,acceptanceofaninitialdietinwhichabouthalfthecaloriesarederivedfromnon-nativefoods(whichmightbenecessaryinanycasetosupportthepopulationwhileitattemptstore-establishtheisland'seconomy).
TheseremedialactionscanberegardedastemporarymeasuresinthesensethatbothmightberelaxedifmonitoringresultsinappropriateassurancethatthedoselimitsnegotiatedintheMOUcanbemet.
3.ToprovidereassurancetothepeopleofRongelapthatthelimitsoftheMOUarebeingmet,thecommitteerecommendsthat,untilexperiencedictatesotherwise,everymemberoftheresettledcommunityreceiveawhole-bodycountforradionuclideburdenandprovideaurinesamplesufficientforanalysisforplutoniumbeforeresettlementandeachyearthereafter.Inaddition,acohortofapproximately80persons(assumingatotalresettlementpopulationofapproximately400people)stratifiedbyageandsexshouldbeexaminedfourtimesayearinthesamefashiontoestablishseasonalfluctuations,whichmustbeunderstoodifannualdosestothemostheavilyexposedaretobecalculated.
4.Thecommitteerecommendsthatattheoutset,tomeetthetermsoftheMOU,thenorthernislandsofRongelapandRongerikAtollsbeconsidered"offlimits"forfood-gathering.Thisconstraintmayberelaxediftheexperienceofthefirstseveralyearsindicatesthatthe100-mremstandardwouldbemeteveniffood-gatheringwereextendedtothenorthernislands.TheenvironmentalsamplingprogramconductedonRongelaphasprovidedanappropriatebackgroundofinformationforestimatingthepotentialdosesfortheresettlementofRongelapIsland.Thecommitteerecommendsthatacontinuedeffortbemadetocharacterizetheotherislandsintheatollthatmaybeusedforfoodgatheringinthefuture.Thisdataisneeded
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toprovidedetailedestimatesofdosesthatmayoccurasaconsequenceofsuchactivities.Sucharesearcheffortshouldbecarefullydesignedwithgoalsestablishedinconcertwiththeneedsofthepeopleoftheregionandinconsultationwithexpertsinenvironmentalmonitoringanddoseassessment.Inaddition,thecommitteerecommendsthatenvironmentalmonitoringofediblefruitsbecontinuedwithafocusondeterminingthebiologicalretentionofradionuclidesintheenvironment.
5.Thecommitteerecommendsthatmedicalservices,withcomprehensivemedical-recordmaintenance,beinitiatedtopermitcontinuingevaluationofthehealthstatusofthereturningpopulation.Thisrecommendationisnotinanticipationofradiogenicillnessamongthosepersons,butratherisintendedtomeettheneedforfactualinformationifthecommunitybecomesconcernedaboutradiogenicconsequences.
6.Thecommitteerecommendsthatamoreformalcoordinationoftheradiological-assessmentactivitiesofBNLandLLNLbeestablishedthanhasexistedinthepast.Similarly,theseactivitiesshouldbecoordinatedwiththoseoftheScientificManagementTeamoftheNationwideRadiologicalStudyoftheRMI.
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PageT-1
PrecisoftheExecutiveSummaryIloKajinMajol**CommitteeeoikijienbobraenaninmijkorejwalokjenbaijininbombiloMajolearejakjenNationalResearchCouncileonanuwakekajitokeojenDepartmenteoanEnergyiloU.S.nanlaleimekatakkakejonanjorankoilojetianenekoiloMajol,elaptatakonRongelap.JuonkarokakkwooneoearejakikotanKieneoanAmericaimKieneoanMajolilo1992eofarnaetanMOU.KwooninearkalikarjetkajitokkoikijienannajjeblakarmijimjokweionRongelap.LemnakinearejakjenkonaneoikijienbarkejeblakarmijnanenekofarkomakiterjeniiloieneoUnitedStatesearkokomelmelekeintarinaekorekajurjen1940snan1950s.RatkajitokbweNationalResearchCouncileoenetaliekatakkoanscientistroiumuntelimlolorjakeeojenU.S.DepartmenteoanEnergynanlaleelaneekatakkeinremaronkwalokjonankauatata,neewor,nanrorenajbarrolnanRongelapimmonawotjenkeinikkankoie,imbokjonanbaijinnanenbwinierlaplokjen100mremiuminjuoniio.MOUeoejbarkomeleleikworanin17pCi/gjonanbaijenintransuraniceoilobwidrej(i.e.,plutoniumimamericium),edikjenjonaneoscientistrorejaikuijbarlomnokkakeim,bwelen,barkareo.
JonanbaijineoiloRongelapitokwotjenkokomelmelkoanU.S.emojandriklokjenukoktakinmejatotoimmotlokimbaijiniuminiiokein40.Ilotorein,baijinkonankajojororenajjokweionRongelapnajworaninstrontium-90,cesium-137,plutonium-239,plutonium-240,imamericium-241.Ibbenkeinelaplokjen90%ejcesium-137,strontium-90ejkwalok2-5%inbaijinko,imtransuranic-nuclidesrejkwalokedriklokjen5%iloaerantonelok.
JeblakimjokweiloaelonkoittueaniloMajolejkwalokelonmokitkitkorokaelri-scientistrorejaikuijlomnokkake.Committeeinejtomakkekateinclapilotoreinnankojeblaklokarmijreinnan
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ijokojikierejjuoniankotebarkorellapimKieneoejbokkunanieimlalejeblaklokeoanelonarmijto,rofaremakitjenwotkauatatakoikijienradiation.Jerbalkeinikijienkomanmanlokenekoimkajeblakarmijronanijokojikieremaronjipanarmijroilololinkojetelanneebarwalokjonankauatatajenradiationtokelik.ArmijinRongelapfarjeblakilo1957imbaremakitilo1985,iloaertomakkeRongelapejjabjuonjikineoemonnanjokweie,imDOEearjabkwaloktooleokinjonanjoraninbaijineoiloenekoimmejatotoeo,imjonaneoenajjeletarmijto.EjjuonmeneoearuoknanjonwejonanlapinradiationeoimjoraneoemaronjeletarmijinRongelapimbareinwotkwalokaoleblomnokkoilomolbwetenjabpokiloaerkononoikijienjabdewotmokitkitiloaelonkoittueantokelik.
**CommitteeinearpikotjuonkilinbweinukokExecutiveSummaryinnankajinMajol.RiutiejroiloRMIEmbassy,Washington,D.C.,rarjipanlokimpikotjuonriukok.Botab,aolebrijipanfarjerbalilomokaj;kinanoktakkajinMajolimkajinbelle,imkinanbenelonwawenkononoanri-scientistro,ebonlukunjejjetaolebnankoiloukokeoilal.
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PageT-2
Konmaroneoan,DOEeartelcommitteeinbweenetalelokanjerbalinekatakkoanscientistronanlalejonanbaijineoiloRongelapilokakadruiklok,nanetaleelaneekatakkeinretobarjonaneoejemonwot.Rarkajitoklokibbencommitteeinbweenlukkunlalejetianuninkononoko,ibbenlokjonaneoraretalejenInternationalCommissionikkijienRadiologicalProtection(ICRP)nanlalejonanradiationeobokiuminjuoniioimlaleejimwakeaerantonelokjonanradiationeorenajbokiloaerbarjeblaknaneneko;kwalokjonanemonakenanailowawenkorejkojerbalinanjonwelokimantonelokbaijiniloanbwinienarmijimilomelanko;tokjenmonakokijierimworaneorejantonjeni;oktakkoikotankeinikkankojenmonakobuktokjenijokojet,imoktakinikkijienkorakeakemmanke,iioeoam,aktakoeitoklimoemkaki;kilenkadriklokambokradiationjenamemenonoakkilenammona;imjuonmeneoenajtojetnakinnanejmour.
Nanjibadbadlokeddoinion,committeeinearworanmaroninkwalokjerbalkoanri-jerbalroanDOErarekatakkakiimjeboleelonjikinkoimtakorenajwalokjenjoraninbaijinkorarekatakkakiiloMajolin.Ibbenlokwot,rouwancommitteeinrarlolokjikinjerbalkoanri-jerbalroanDOEnanlalewawenimkilenaeretalejoraninbaijinkoiloMajol,rarbareinwotkajitokelonkajitokkoibbenri-jerbalroanDOEimibbenscientistrorejetalewotjonanjoraneoiloMajol,imetalnanMajolbwerenlukkunlojonanjoraneoimrejekatakwotkakiiloBikiniimRongelap,bareinwotnanaeretalewawenbedionMejatoimEbeye,ijokoelonianri-Rongelaprorejjukjukimamnakierainin.KononokorarkommaniloNationalAcademyofScienceiloWashington,D.C.,imiloMejatoibbenri-telrojenRongelaproimrekonanjeblaknanRongelap.CommitteeeoeartibrikiaolepenekatakkorarkommanijenjuonekatakeorejnaetanNationwideRadiologicalStudyimRongelapResettlementProject,iumintelimlolorjakejanDr.S.L.Simon,juonphysicistin
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ejmoureoimkieneoanMajolearkojerbale.
CommitteeinearwatwatelokaolebmelelekoikijienwawenjonwelokimantonelokpaijiniloaenkotueaniloMajolimbareinwotjonaneoarmijreinrenajbok,iloaerjeblaknanRongelap.Iloelonwawenko,committeeinearloriuwakkoibbenri-etalero,bareinwotkilenimwawenkorarjabkalikarilokmoktailoetalekein;ejjabjuonimineneeoDOEakinkarokbweenkwalokaolepenlokanjerbalinetalekoan.Jenmeneorarekatakjene,committeeinenajkarokbwetokalikDepartmenteoanEnergyenajlaplokanlalebwelokanetalekorekanuijinmelele.
KwooneoearkommanikotanKieneoanAmericaimKieneoanMajolnaetanMOUearkobaiklokwotjuonkotobareoeinjuonnanjonejonaneoelaptatajuonarmijemaronbokiloanbwinienikijienradiation.Jerbalinetalekoikkijienradiationrarkalikaribweinkwalokjonanyeolablabjuonbwijinarmijremaronbok;rejaninalikarakejaknankwalokjonaneoelaptataimkajojoarmijrenajbokjeni;ebareinwotlukkunbennanjonwekonjonanietinarmijreinnanjonankajurinbaijenkein.Ibbenlokwot,armijreinrarmaronkarkommanmonajenenekojetelaplokradiationkoie,imkajojoarmijremaronkarmonajenmonakoelaplokanbaijininbedie,einwotbarulep.Aoleblemnakkeinrekommananbennanantonelokjonaneoelaptattajuonwotarmijeoenajbokilojuonmelaneo.CommitteeinearkonanbweMOUeoenkalikarelonlokkeinkaminenekonanbobraeradiationrejbuki,botapejelokancommitteeinmaronnankommanoktakiloMOUeo;aolepenantonekeinraikuijwonmanlokwotjenkarokeotokjenMOUeo.Botapaolepjerbalinetalekeinikijienbobraeradiationrejjabjimwenanarmijrorenajbokijenjonanlapinbaijineo,committeeinear
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kwalokwanjonakkobwerenmaronwonmanlokwotimworaermeninkononokakeabnonoin.
Jemlokko
Committeeinearkommanjemlokkeinjenaolepenkakobabakorarlemnakkake.Aolebmelelekoreaorektattarejbedilal.
1.WarenkojerbalikarokkojenICRPiloaeloninMajol.RarkajitoklokibbencommitteeinbweenkwaloklemnakeoanikijienkarokkojenICRPilojeblakimroleoanarmijronanRongelap,imbareinwotrojetibelakinMajol.KonkekarokkojenICRPrarjabkalikariekkarnanmokitkitrotin,committeeeoearejakkeejjabmaronlorekarokkojenICRP.Bareinwot,nanrorenajjeblakimbedionRongelapimejkalikarjonanbaijeneoelaptattajuonarmijemaronbokiiloMOUeo,eninuninankarcommitteeinjabbarlemnakkeenajjipanlokimtibdrikijonaneoemojkajetjete.Botap,ekkareojenICRPnanjonwejonanbaijineonanaoleparmijrarjabkommanikijienrorenajjeblaknanenekoemojaerjoranjenbaijininbombko,ICRPearkilebwinbwininkakilenkoelajrakimkalikariloMOUeoeinwotjuonmeneoeauroknankenankake.Meninkononoinejkomeleleiklokilojebta7.
2.Tibdrikinimjonakinmelanko.Lajrakinjonakkoilomelanjenbwidrej,keinikkanko,drenimmonakoionRongelapelapanmulalimtiljokaerjerbale.Aolebjerbalkeinrarkajionimetalejoninlapincesiumeoilobwidrej,ma,waini,imbobkoimjonantransuraniceoilobwidrej,katakkeinikijienradiationrekijonwalokilomelankein.JerbalinkajimwekeinimrarkommanjenscientistroiloLawrenceLivermoreNationalLaboratory,juonjikinetaleanDOE,earkalikardebdebinmelelekonanantonelokjonanradiationeonajbokjenmejatotoeokabmonakoiloaernajrolimbediloeneko.
3."Jikindrikdrikkoelapbaijenie."Jikindrikdrikkoremaronlukuun
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joraniloijokorejaninkakileniejjuonanri-Rongelapabnono.Ijowotke,jonenanlonjikinkoraretaleiloaeneo,committeeinejjabtamakenajworjikindrikdrikkoelekunlabbaijenie.Bareinwot,konkeenaninjonanwotjuonradiationiloijokoraretalijenLLNL,imkinwawenanbaijenwalokjenbombeo,committeeinejjablouninanekkolkonjonanlabinradiation(plutonium,cesium,imbaijenkojet)koremaronkwalokbweenwor"jikindrikdrikkoelapbaijenie."(Committeeinearbokkomelelein''jikindrikdrikkoelapbaijenie"einwotjuonjikinjonankajurinradiationeoej10alenlaplokjenjikinkojetemojaerekatakkakekio.)
4.Jonakkoilomonako.Melelekobokjenelonjerbalinetalekokonmonako,rejjabjejjetiloaerantonelokjonaneori-Rongelaproremaronbokjenmona.Bedbedionmelelekein,ijokecommitteeinearwatwatelokkeenaninaolepenrorejmonajenkeinikkanko,akmonakoitokjenniimwaini,maroninlaplokjen100-mrem,akkonlokjenjonaneoemojaerkajejjetiuminjuoniioeoemojkelajrakeiloMOUeo.Tokjenaerjablukunjelakakejonanarmijkajojorenajmonaim,kinmenin,jonanbaijenie,rejbarkomeleleikilokomelelekoilalilo6im7.
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5.Jonakimkakelkelkoiloarmij.BwinbwininjuonenbwininarmijkorejkommaniloMajoljenrijerbalroanDOEiloBrookhavenNationalLaboratory(BNL)ejkwalokjonanjorankoiloenbwinier,bwetenmaroninerreekkarnankarokeoiloMOUeo,emeninaikuijbwetenekatakkakekajojoarmijiloaernajjeblakimbweenjabjemlokjerbalinetalekonanermaejuonienettojenrankein.MelanimmejatotoeoiloRongelap,strontium-90,plutonium-239,implutonium-240rejkotmenekeenajkwalokjidrikinwotjonaneobokejenantoanenbwinnimajorwawananbaijinin.Jonandrikinbaijenen,jejetinjonakjonanplutonium-239implutonium-240jendreninrautebenaeretali,neremaron,konkeinkomadmodikoilorankein.Unkobweenmaronjejjetaerjonwejonanplutoniumeoilorauteikiujbweenworkonnankake,komelelekoremonlok,imjerbalimwatwatimjemlokkorememeleiloaerjonwejonanplutoniumarmijkajojoremaronbukjeni.
6.Wawenantonelokjonanbaijeniloarmijkajojoimilomelanko.WatwatimjonaneorijerbalroanDOErarantonelokekkarnankwoneoweppenjenrouwanICRP.Jonaneoitulikinanbwinienjuonarmijrejantoneearjimweimjejjetimlukkunmelele.Antonekokonjonanradiationeoituloarorarbukijenaeremenono,imoronlok,rarjabtobrakkonkeiiokokajitokkakirejako.Ejjabjuonmeneoelapiloanjabbo-lelaolepenjerbalinetalekein,konkeantonkonanjonaneojuonrittoejkaniejlaplokjanantonkoekkarnanajirirokajojo.Ibbenlok,jonankeinri-scientistrorejaninjelakakeelapandriklokjenmenkorejaninkileikkijienwawenanarmijromona.
7.Ekatakkori-scientistrejaninmeleleikijienjejjetinjonelokimantonelokradiation.Ruoiankilenkoemojkomalimnanantonelokdretaneoelaptatailoanarmijejerwawa.Juonejkojerbaleprobablisticeoejkojerballemnakimukoktakkojenjidrikinradiologicalkokojerbaliiloekatakkein.Eojuonejkojerbalescenario,eoejkwalokkadkadinjetianroelapaerejerwawa,einwot
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iio,armijrot(koraakemman),ijoejbedie,imkilananmona.EkatakkoanLLNLrejkojerbalewotprobablistic,botabrebanlukkunjimweimjejjetaerkamolijerbalkoaertokwotjenanietjonannanaermaroninantonelokjonanradionuclideskoiloenbwinier.Iloaerwonmantakkonscenarioeo,committeeinearantonekekajojororejmonajenkeinikkankowotmaroninbokjaonaniniuminjuoniio92-106mrem/y,ekkarnankilenanmona.
8.JipankoremaronkokomanmanejmournanarmijrorenajjeblakimjokweionRongelap.Committeeinejtomakkeunleplepnankomanmanlokmejatotoeoejkojerbalkonkojenpotassium,rebanjeletejmouranroionRongelap,ilomoleo,konanlonlokmenineddokkoimewamourmourlok,emaronkokmanmanlokejmournanaoleparmijro.PotassiumchlorideejjuonkooneoekkaaerkojerbaleiloUnitedStatesimejjabkauatatananejmourneejjerbalilouninwot.Keinkaruo,kareoiklokbwidrejeoejoranjenijokoarmijrejokweienajejelokjorannanejmouranarmij.Committeeinearkilekeiloaernajjolokbwidrejiniloijokorejoranitulon,ebareinwotjuonmeneoejjabemon,iloannajkakurekaanenekoimjanbokjuonieneoeaetoknananbarkokalbwidrej.
Bedbedionetalekoancommitteein,TableT-1,eoejtibdrikijonanradiationeojuonarmijenajbukijenanjeblakimjokweionRongelap,kajurinradiationeo,imiaenpaijeneo
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TableT-1.KomolelekoKonJonanAnriRongelapEjerwawananRadiation
AjejkonanJonaneoKwojBok mSv/y (mrem/y)
I. JONANRADIATIONEBEDIEKADREDRE
A.Ejerwawajenijokoitulik 0.22 (22)
B.Radionuclideskoituloa 2.0 (200)
Subtotal 2.22 (222)
II. RADIATIONIKIJIENANKARAJERER ScenarioA ScenarioC
A.Ejerwawajenijokoitulik 0.11 (11) 0.11 (11)
B.Radionuclideskoituloa
1.menkojejoranlok 0.17 (17) 0.95 (95)
2.menkojejemeonon 0.0043 (0.43) 0.0043 (0.43)
Subtotal 0.29 (29) 1.06 (106)
TOTAL 2.51 (251) 3.28 (328)
ejwalokjenie.Ijinejkwalokajejinjonanbaijineoarmijkajojoremaronbokjenruoianekatakko:monakokijedmakekobamonakojenijokojet(scenarioA)jenRobinsonetal.(1993),immonakokijedmakeekkarnanRobisonetal.(1993)botaptokwotjenjonancaloriekokaniejkwaloktaeocommitteeinejkotmenekeejlaplokanjejjetoonkonanejmour(jonanooneinwotScenarioA).
Recommendations
Bedbedionekatakaketakeeoan,committeeeoearkomanejetkarokkoimreikuijinlori.
1.Kinwotjetmelelekorejaninlukuninalikarilowaweninelapankabukbuk,Committeeinearbakejetianarmijrorejjeblakimjokwe
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ionRongelapremaronbuklaplokjan100-mremradiation,jonaneoemojkarokiloMOU.Melelein,armijrorenajjeblaknanRongelapimbokenaninaolebmenkokijierjenmonakoimkeinikkankoiloenekoremaronbokjonan,imejlaplokjen100-mremelaneejjelokjipankinpotassiumchlorideimejjelokjipankinmona.
2.ElanearmijinRongelaprorenajwonmanlokwotimlorwawenlajrakinjonaneoemojjonweiloaerjeblaknanRongelap,committeeinemojankamelimiruowawennanjiban
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koimrejlajrakilal.
Mokajimkojerbaljuonmeneorejnaetanpotassiumchlorideeinwotkonnankadriklokbaijineoilomonakoetancesiuminekkawotanwalokijokoeworniimbobie.
Neenajdedelokjeblakeo,wawenkilenmonaeoenajjimetanincalories(oon)enajitokjenmonakoilikinimjimetanjenmonainaelonkein.
Jipankeinremaronbojrakelanneiloiiokotokelikri-scientistrorejjonelokbaijeneoimejdriklokjanjonenrejantonelokkio.
3.NankamolnanarmijinRongelapkejonankoakkarokkoanMOUeorarkomaneinwotcommitteeeoearkomelimkajojoianarmijroimrenajjeblakrenajaikiujimkakolkolimlaleneeworradionuclidesimbareinwotlalejuonjambolimkobojakbwerenmaronlalejonanplutoniummoktajenaerjeblakimnanbartokelik.Ilokobaiklok,jinointarrin80armij(jenbaelaneworanarmijeoej400)renajajejkinarmijrot(koraimemman)imjonaniniiokoaerinnemkakolkolemanaleniloiiootemjej.
4.CommitteeinearkabilokilojemlokinnanmaroniionkarokkojenMOUeo,bweaelonkoitueoniloRongelapimRongerikbwerenlikitiemo(''offlimit")akarmijenjabmaroninebbokmonajeni."Offlimit"eoemaronbojrokneiloaniiokojinoinetalekorejkwalokkejonanradiationarmijrokajojorejbukiedikjan100-mrem,jokronnerenajkarebbokmonajenenekoitueon.EkatakkokommonionRongelaprarletokjuonmeleleeoejimwenanantonelokjonankorejbukielanerenajjeblaknanRongelap.Committeeinearkabilokkejuonkateeoejwonmanlokwotnankileenekoiloailininbwerenmaroninkojerbaliimebbokmonajeniilorankanetokiman.Ekatakinejaikuijbweentibrikrikmelelekokonjonaneoremaronbokineemaronwalokjetwottokjenmakitkitkein.Einwotjuonjerbalinkate
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eikiujintiljokiloanworjetmenininkotobarkoibbenaikuijkoanarmijroilobukonkoimkarokkojenrorejelaekkatakkoilomejatotoeo.Ibbenlokwot,committeeinearkwalokkeiloaerlalemelankonanmonakojemaronkanibweenwonmanlokwotbwerenmaronjonwejonanradiationeoilomeneneddokimilomejatotoeo.
5.Committeeenearkabilokkeeaikuijbweenworjikindaktoakkakolkolkonanetalewawenajmouranarmijrorejjeblak.Kakbiloklokinejjabekajaklokibbennaninmijinradiationakbweeniionmeninmelelekonerenajworinebatatokjenradiation.
6.Committeeinearkabilokebweenbo-lellokaerkarokikilenekatakkokonaolebmokitkitkoikijienjonwejonanradiationkoikotanBNLimLLNLkoimrarejaklokmokta.Kilenekkatakkeinraikuijbwerenkomman(karok)ippenScientificManagementTeameojenNationwideRadiologicalStudyeoanRMI.
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1.IntroductionThephysicalandculturalcharacteristicsofthepeopleofRongelap,theirdiet,andtheircustomsasdistinctfromenvironmentalfactorsareimportantinestimatingpotentialradiationdosesafterreturntotheirnativeatoll.TheRongelappeopleareculturallyandethnicallydistinct.Someoftheirphysiologicalcharacteristicsmightalsodifferfromthoseofthe"standard"Americanandmightbeclosertothoseofthereference"Asianman"thantothoseoftheICRPstandard"referenceman''(Griffith,1994),onwhichmuchofourinformationforradiation-protectionstandardsisbased.ThecommitteeisawareofthosedifferencesandhasattemptedtokeepthemandtheconcernsoftheRongelapcommunityuppermostinmindduringitsdeliberations.
ConcernsofthecommitteeregardingthesettlementofRongelaparebothgeneralandspecific.Examplesofgeneralconcernsaretheprotectionofpeoplefromneedlessabove-backgroundradiationexposure;theuseofuniversallyaccepteddosimetrymethods;andtheproperapplicationofthemostcurrentstatistical,environmental,andbody-burdenmodelingproceduresinestimatingpotentialradiationdoses.Specificissuesaremorevariableandoftenintangibleandmustbeconsideredinrelationtoindividualandgroupneeds.TheyincludethespiritualconfluencethattheRongelappeoplefeelwiththeiratollhome,theirintimatedailyinteractionwiththeirenvironment,andthevariationsintheirdiet.ThepeopleofRongelaparehighlymobile,andtheirdietarypatternreflectstheirmovementsandactivities.Inbodytype,theaverageRongelapnativeisshortandtendstobeslenderuntilmarriage,afterwhichtheculturalvalueplacedonbeingwellfedbecomesapparent.Giventhoseconditions,predictingandmonitoringradiationexposuremusttakeintoaccountage,sex,andactivity
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patternandmustalsofocusoncontext-specificbiophysicalandmetabolicprofiles,whichincludetheratiooflocallyproducedtoimportedfoodandotherdietaryvariables.
ThepeopleofRongelaphaveobviouslybeentraumatizedbytheirinvoluntaryinvolvementinnucleartesting.Theirfirstexileoccurredin1954,2daysaftertheU.S.nucleartestBRAVOresultedinwidespreadcontaminationoftheirislandhome.Theyreturnedin1957withassurancesthattheradiationlevelsontheiratollweresafe.Butin1985theybecameconvincedthatradiationcontaminationonRongelapwascontributingtomedicalproblems,andtheyagainmovedfromtheirhome,thistimetoexileontheislandofMejattointheKwajaleinAtoll.Sincethattime,theyhaveattemptedtodeterminewhethertheenvironmentofRongelapAtollsoil,birds,fish,andotherfoodstuffsissafeandtheatollthereforehabitable.Theystilldonothaveadefinitiveanswer;infact,theRongelapcommunityexpressesadegreeofdistrustofinformationreceivedfromDOE.MembersofthisNRCcommitteehopeindeed,anticipatethattheconcernsoftheRongelappeoplewill,toagreatextent,beallayedbytheknowledgethatthescientificactivitiesoftheDOEhavebeengivenathoroughreviewduringthecourseofthiscommittee'sdeliberations.
Thischapterpresentsanoverviewoftheculturalandenvironmentalfactorsthataffect
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theresettlementofRongelap,includingtheirpotentialeffectontheestimationofradiationdosesofreturningRongelappeople.Boththecompositionoftheislandsoilsandthelocalclimateaffectweatheringandthedispersalofradioactivecontamination,andtheavailabilityofnativefoodsourcesandthedietaryhabitsofthepeoplearealsoimportant.ThischapterdrawsheavilyonseveralreviewsofthegeologyandculturalhistoryoftheMarshallIslands(Mason,1947;Wiens,1957;FosbergandCarrol,1965;Amerson,1969;Hezel,1983;BendureandFriary,1992;Simonetal.,1993).
Environment
ThemapshowninFigure1illustratesthelocationoftheRepublicoftheMarshallIslands(RMI)relativetotheotherislands,islandgroups,andlargerlandmassesinthePacificOcean.Figure2showsthepositionofthedifferentislandchains,atolls,andislandsoftheRMI(inthisreporttheRMIwilloftenbereferredtosimplyasthe"MarshallIslands",ashasbecomecommonpractice).TheMarshallIslandsconsistsoftwochainsofatollsrunningnorth-northwesttosouth-southeast:thewestern,Ralik("sunset")chainandtheeasternRatak("sunrise")chainareclearlydifferentiatedinFig.2.Thenumberofislandsintherepublicexceeds1,200.Onlyfiveareconsideredsingleislands;theothersaresetsofisletsgroupedinto29atolls,ofwhichRongelapAtollisone.Theareasofthevariousatollsrangefromabout0.5to16km2,andthoseofthelagoonsfromabout8.5to2,500km2.Thecapitaloftherepublic,Majuro,isonanatollthatliesapproximately3,800kmsouthwestofHonoluluand2,700kmnorthofFiji.
TheclimateoftheMarshallIslandsistropical.Theaveragedailytemperatureis27ºC(81ºF),andthetypicalrelativehumidityisabout80%.Theislandsarelow-lyingandthereforedonotinfluencelocalweatherpatternssubstantially.Rainfallhasawidegradient,from350
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cm(138in.)ayearinthesouthernislandstoonlyabout110cm(43in.)inthenorthernmost;thisaccountsfortheheaviervegetationintheSouth.ThewettestmonthsareSeptemberthroughNovember,thedriestJanuarythroughMarch.Duringthewetseason,intenserainsquallsarefrequent.Full-blowntropicalstormsandtyphoonsarerare,buttheycanbedevastatingwhentheydooccurandcrosstheseunprotectedislands.
ThesoilsandvegetationoftheMarshallIslandshavebeenstudiedextensively(see,e.g.,FosbergandCarroll,1965).Virtuallyalltheislandshavewhitesand(coral)beaches.Soilsofthedeep-oceanatollsconsistalmostsolelyofsandyandcoarserparticlesofcalciumcarbonateascalciteandaragoniteandcontainsmallamountsofsubstitutedmagnesiumandstrontium.Silicateclaysappearundetectable,althoughtraceamountspresumablyoccurfromaccumulationofglobaldust.Organicmatterisrelativelyhighinthesurfacelayerbutdecreasesabruptlythroughanarrowtransitionzone.Theorganiccontentofthesurfacelayervariesfromatracetomorethan10%andisthesolesourceofcation-exchangecapacity.Calculatedratiosofthecarbontonitrogencontentofthesoilsvaryfromabout10:1to13:1andindicateadvancedstagesoforganicdecomposition.Phosphoruscontentrepresentsinputbynestingseabirdsatsometimeinthepastandvarieshighlyinamountfromsitetosite.Themake-upoftheislandsoilsandsub-soilscontributetoverylownaturalbackgroundradiationexposurerates;therearenonaturallyoccurringrockformationsthatwouldcontributetosuch
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Figure1.CentralPacificOcean.
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Figure2.RepublicoftheMarshallIslands
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otherwisecommonlyoccurringradiationbackgroundssuchasthatduetoradon.
MostoftheoriginalvegetationofthenorthernMarshallIslands,especiallythelargerislands,hasbeenreplacedbycoconutplantations.Theseplantationsrangeindensityfromalmostcompletecoverinthemoisterregionstosparsenessinthedrynorthernatolls.Thegroundcoverunderthetreesrangesfromgrassandotherherbstoathicktangleofbushes,vines,andtrees,dependingontheparticularatollclimateandhowdiligentlytheplantationsaretended.Abeltofscrubforestissometimesleftaroundtheplantationsforprotectionfromwindandsaltspray.Thethickscrubforestsalongthefringeoftheislandscangivetheappearanceofimpenetrability.Inundisturbedareas,purestandsofthesoft-woodedtreesPisonia,Pandanus,orumbrella-likeOchrosiaarefoundwithmixedstandsofseveralhardwoodspecies.Theforestsusuallyhavedensecanopiesandlittleundergrowth.
RongelapAtollisintheRatakChainabout670kmnorthwestofMajuroandabout200kmsoutheastofBikiniAtoll.Itcomprisesabout50low-lyingislandswithatotalareaofabout9km2surroundingalagoonofabout1,000km2.ThelargestandbyfarthemostimportantislandisRongelap,withanareaofabout0.8km2.Theatollhasmoderateyearlyrainfall,about150-180cm(60-70in.).Themeanairtemperatureisabout27ºC(82ºF),andtheprevailingwindiseasttonorth.Theislandsarecoveredwithvegetationsomecoconutsandmuchnativebrushandwoodland;however,thelackofrainfallduringthelongdryseasonlimitsthekindsofplantsthatcanbegrown.FourteenbirdspeciesareknownonRongelapAtoll:eightseabirds,fourshorebirds,oneheron,andonedomesticfowl(Amerson,1969).
Culture
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AnthropologistsestimatethattheresidentsoftheRepublicoftheMarshallIslandsfirstarrivedontheshoresoftheircoral-atollhomesabout2,000yearsago.Untilthelatterhalfofthenineteenthcentury,theysubsistedonseafoodsandbreadfruit,pandanus,coconut,andarrowroot.TheMarshallIslandswereneverunifiedunderasingleleader,althoughonechiefoftencontrolledseveralatolls,andattimesvirtuallytheentireRalikchainwasunderasinglechief.Chiefshadabsoluteauthority,buttheirwealthandpowerdependedontheloyaltyandtributepaymentsofthecommoners.
EuropeanculturalinfluenceswereabsentfromtheislandsuntilAlvarodeSaavedralandedinthewesternpartoftheMarshallIslandsin1529.AlthoughotherSpanishexpeditionslandedintheMarshallIslandsduringthe1500s,Spaindidnotattempttocolonizetheareaactively.SubstantialinterestintheareabyBritishandEuropeansgenerallywasnotshownuntilthe1830sand1840s,whenwhalersbegantofrequentthearea.TheislandsarenamedaftertheEnglishseacaptainJohnMarshall,whovisitedtheislandsin1788,butitwastheRussianexplorerOttovonKotzebuewhowaschieflyresponsibleforextensiveexplorationoftheregionbetween1815and1825andwhoseeffortsresultedinthefirstgoodmapsoftheislands.
WhalersandtradersbegantoexpandtheireffortsinthePacificearlyinthe1800s,buttendedtoavoidtheMarshallIslandsbecauseofitswidespreadreputationforviolence.RespondingtoEuropeanandAmericanabuseofislandwomenandtothekillingofsacredchiefsandvaluedcommoners,thepreviouslyfriendlyMarshallIslandsnativesbecame,forwesterners,themostfearedpeopleinMicronesia.Violencewasdeclining,however,bythe
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westerners,themostfearedpeopleinMicronesia.Violencewasdeclining,however,bythetimethefirstProtestantmissionariesarrivedonEbonAtollinthe1850s.Missionariesweregivenamixedreceptionbylocalpeoplebutwithinafewyearshadattractedacoreofconverts.Inthe1860sand1870s,copraproductionreplacedwhalingastheprimaryEuropeanindustrialinterestinthearea.Thecopraindustryemployedlocalchiefsasintermediariesandgreatlyincreasedtheirpower,stability,andinfluence(Carucci,1988).
GermanypurchasedtheMarshallIslandsfromSpainin1885andlefttheadministrationofislandaffairstoagroupofGermantradingcompaniesthatfurtherstabilizedthepositionoftherulingchiefs.Germangovernmentofficialsdidnotarriveonthesceneuntil1906.Intheinterim,aseriesofstrugglesoverthetermsofwesterndominationtookplacebetweenAmericanmissionaries,Germantraders,andindependent"local"Europeantraders.In1917,theJapanesetookcontroloftheMarshallIslandsunderaLeagueofNationsmandate.Theyassumedcontrolofthecoprabusinessand,unliketheGermans,purchasedcopradirectlyfromthepeople,usinggroupsofresidentJapanesetraders,ratherthanrelyingsolelyonlocalchiefs.Thispolicy,withtheJapaneseinstitutionalizationofpositionsforagroupoflocalpoliticalelites,begantounderminetheunquestionedauthoritythatislandchiefshadgainedduringthecopraera.In1933,whenitbrokefromtheLeagueofNations,JapandeclaredownershipofMicronesia.Itdevelopedandfortifiedlargemilitarybasesonseveralatolls,usinglocallaborfromthroughouttheMarshallIslandsandKoreanandOkinawanexpatriates.TheUnitedStatesdefeatedJapanindecisivebattlesonKwajaleinandEnewetokAtollsin1944liberatingtheMarshallIslands,andruledtheareathroughanavalmilitarygovernmentuntilitwasgivenauthoritybytheUnitedNationsafterWorldWarIItoadministerthescatteredislandsandatollsofMicronesiaastheTrustTerritoryofthePacificIslands.
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AdministrationofthetrustterritoryshiftedfromtheU.S.NavytotheDepartmentoftheInteriorin1951andremainedineffectuntiltheRepublicoftheMarshallIslandsgainedpolitical,ifnoteconomic,independenceundertheCompactofFreeAssociationthatwassignedwiththeUnitedStatesin1983andapprovedunderU.S.PublicLaw99-239onJanuary14,1986.
Ebon,Jaluit,Majuro,Kwajalein,andEnewetokwereMarshallIslandslocationsofinteresttoJapanese,European,andAmericancolonizersfromthe1850stothe1950s,butitwasnotuntiltheU.S.nuclear-testingeraafterWorldWarIIthatRongelap,Bikini,andUtirikjoinedEnewetokaslocationsofmajorconsideration.TheUnitedStatesbegannucleartestsin1946onBikiniAtollandexpandedthemtoEnewetoklatein1947.
TheconsequencesofthecontaminationofRongelapAtollandexposureofitsinhabitantsowingtosubstantialamountsofradiationfromradioactivefalloutonthelife-styleofthepeopleofRongelaparesummarizedinTable1-1.OnMarch1,1954,theBRAVOtestonBikiniexplodedwith3timestheprojectedintensity.TheunexpectedlyextensivefallouttraveledeastwardofthetestsiteandsubjectedtheresidentsofRongelapAtoll(includingAilinginaeandRongerik)andUtirikAtolltosubstantialamountsofradioactivecontamination.Withinabout5hafterthenucleartest,afinewhitepowderysubstancebegantorainonRongelapanditsinhabitants.Therehadbeennowarning,sothechildrenwereallowedtoplayinthe"snow";onlylaterdidtheinhabitantsofRongelaplearnthatthis"snow"wasdangerouslyradioactive.OnMarch3,1954,2daysafterthetest,64residentsofRongelapand18ofAilinginaewereevacuatedtoKwajalein;thenonMarch4,159residentsofUtirikwereevacuated.Includingfetuses,252residentsoftheseAtollssufferedwhole-bodyexposure,with
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Table1-1.SummaryofResidencesofRongelapCommunitySinceBRAVOTest
Dates Residences
March1954
FalloutfromBRAVOtestoccursonMarch1;residentsareevacuatedtoKwajaleinAtollonMarch3
1954-1957
RongelapcommunitylivesonEjetIsland,MajuroAtoll
1957-1985
RongelapcommunityreturnstoRongelapAtollinJune1957andlivesthereuntilMay1985
May1985
RongelapcommunitymovesfromRongelaptoMejattoIsland,KwajaleinAtoll,onMay22
1985topresent
RongelapcommunitylivesonMejattoIslandwhileawaitingresettlementtoRongelapAtoll
thepeopleofRongelapreceivingestimatedexternalgamma-raydosesof190remandsubstantialinternalandexternalexposurefrombeta-emittingradionuclides(Conard,1992).Thelaterdevelopmentofnodularthyroiddiseases,includingsomemalignancies,resultedinunderstandableconcerninRongelapcommunityaboutlong-termhealth.
ThepeopleofRongelapreturnedtotheirhomeatollonJune29,1957,afteradecisionwasmadethatitwassafeforthemtoreturnundercontinuingradiologicalsurveillance.Later,theycametofeelthat''safe"wasrelativewhenunanticipatedmedicalproblemsbegantosurface.2Concernwasintensifiedbyreleaseofadditionalgovernmentreports,includingaMarshalleselanguagediscussionoftheradiationlevelsintheNorthernmollsoftheMarshallIsland(Bair,etal.,1982),
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thatthepeopleofRongelapinterpretedasindicatinggreaterlevelsofcontaminationontheirhomelandsthantheyhadpreviouslybeenmadeawareofbytheU.S.DepartmentofEnergy.ThisreportwasinterpretedasindicatingthattheiratollwascontaminatedtothesamedegreeasBikiniwhichwasgenerallyconsidered"unsafe"forhabitation.Inadditiontotheseconcerns,urinesamplesanalyzedbyBrookhavenNationalLaboratoryin1984hadshownhigherlevelsofplutoniumthanhadbeenexpected(Conard,1992).OnMay22,1985,theRongelappeople,havinglostconfidenceintheadviceprovided
2AccordingtotestimonyofSenatorJetonAnjainbeforetheSubcommitteeonInsularandInternationalAffairs,Washington,D.C.,November16,1989.
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bythedepartmentofEnergy,3lefttheirhomeatollforanewlocationonMejattoIslandinKwajaleinAtoll.Theincreasedplutoniumconcentrationsnowappeartohaveresultedfromurine-collectionproceduresthatresultedinspurioushighplutoniumlevels(Conard,1992)andthelevelsofradionuclidecontaminationonRongelaphaveproventobelowerthanthoseonBikini.However,theRongelappeoplenowwishtoeliminatealldoubtsaboutthehabitabilityoftheirhomelandbeforetheyreturnandhavechosentostayonMejattoIslanduntiltheyareassuredoftheradiologicalsafetyofRongelapIsland.
ThereviewofDOE'seffortintheradiologicalassessmentofRongelapbythisNationalResearchCouncilcommitteeisaimedatdeterminingwhetherthemethodsandpracticesundertakenbyDOEanditscontractorsarescientificallysound.
RadiationExposureandDose
RadiationdosesthatmightbereceivedinthefuturebypersonsofallagesareimportantissuesrelatedtotheresettlementoftheRongelappeople.AssessmentsofthesedosesprovideimportantbasesforestimatingthepossiblehealthrisksassociatedwithresidualradionuclidesonRongelapIsland.Sourcesofradiationcanbeexternal,internal,orboth.Forexample,someoftheRongelapinhabitantsexposeddirectlytotheBRAVOfalloutmaterialinMarch1954received,inamatterofafewdays,bumsontheirskinasaresultofbetaradiationemittedbyradionuclidesdepositedonskin,whereasothereffectsoftheearlyexposures,suchasdamagetothethyroid,werenotmanifestforseveralyears.Effectsonthethyroid,includingcancer,wereproducedbyradionuclidesofiodine(131I,133I,135I)thatwereabsorbedintothebody,weredepositedpreferentiallyinthethyroidaltissue,andbecamesourcesofchronicinternalradiationexposure.
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Becauseofradioactivedecayandnaturalweathering,manyoftheradionuclidesintheinitialfalloutmaterialarenolongerpresent.ResettlementdecisionsmustincludeconsiderationofwhichradionuclidesarepresentandtheextenttowhichcurrentandfutureradionuclideinventorieswillcontributetoradiationdosesthattheRongelappeoplemightreceivefromexternalandinternalsources.OftheradionuclidesoriginallydepositedasfalloutfromtheBRAVOdetonation,only5radionuclidesarestillpresentinsufficientquantitiestocontributesignificantdosestoindividuals.Theseincludecesium-137,strontium-90,plutonium-239,plutonium-240,andamericium-241.Ofthetotaldoseestimatedforresidentsresettlingtheatolls,90%isfromcesium-137andover70%ofthatwillcomefromingestionofthenativefoods(KercherandRobison,1993).PossibleexposurepathwaysbywhichradiationdosesmightbereceivedarelistedinTable3.Strontiumisthesecondmostsignificantnuclidecontributingtotheestimateddose,alsofromingestioninfoodstuffs,andmightaccountforasmuchas2-5%ofthedose.Thetransuranicradionuclidesareestimatedtocontributelessthan5%oftheestimateddoseover50and70y.EstimateddosesfromstochasticsourcetermsandtheuncertaintiesinsuchcalculationshaverecentlybeendiscussedindetailbyKercherandRobison(1993).
3AsrelatedbySenatorAnjaininhistestimonytotheHouseCommitteeonAppropriations,May9,1991.
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Table1-2.PathwaysofExposuretoRadiation
I. NATURALBACKGROUNDRADIATION
A Externalexposurea
B. Internalexposureb
II. RADIATIONFROMFALLOUTRADIONUCLIDES
A.Externalexposure
B.InternalExposureduetoIntakevia
1.Ingestionc
2.Inhalation
aAnnualexternaldosefromcosmicradiationis0.22mSv(22mrem).ExternalbackgroundradiationfromterrestrialsourcesisverylowinnorthernMarshallIslands(Robisonetal.,1993).
bAnnualinternalequivalentdoseisabout2mSv(200mrem)peryearfromnaturallyoccurringradionuclides,suchaspotassium-40,polonium-210,andlead-210inthediet(Robisonetal.,1993).
cIngestionincludesuptakefromterrestrialfoods,marinefoods,drinkingwater,andsoil.
Measurementsandanalysesoftheexposurepathwaysandthewidearrayoffactorsthatcaninfluenceboththeexposuresandtheradiationdosesreceivedfromtheseexposureshavebeenmadebyseveraldifferentorganizationsduringthelast40years.PeriodicmedicalexaminationsoftheRongelappeoplebegansoonaftertheirevacuationinMarch1954;theexaminationshavebeencarriedoutbymedicalstaffofBNLandhealth-servicepersonnelfromtheMarshallIslands.InadditiontoperformingmedicalexaminationsonpersonsexposedtotheinitialBRAVOfallout,theBNLmedicalstaffinitiated,in1958,periodicwhole-bodycountingtodeterminetheextentto
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whichphoton-emittingradionuclidesfromtheinternalexposuresourcesshowninTable1-2werebeingincorporatedinpeople.Responsibilityformonitoringinternaldepositionofradionuclideswastransferredin1978totheBNLSafetyandEnvironmentalProtectionDivision,whichcontinuestocarryoutwhole-bodycountingandradionuclide-contentanalysisofurineandfeces.
On-siteenvironmentalsurveyshavealsoinvolvedseveralotherorganizations.MostoftheearlysurveyswereconductedbypersonneloftheU.S.NavalRadiologicalDefenseLaboratoryandtheRadiationEcologyLaboratoryoftheUniversityofWashingtonCollegeofFisheries.In1978,personnelfromEG&GCorporationperformedanextensiveairborneradiologicalsurveyofthenorthernMarshallIslandsintheBRAVOfalloutpath;inconjunctionwiththisextensivesurveyprogram,scientistsfromLLNLconductedland-basedenvironmentalsurveysofwater,soil,vegetation,andmarinespecies.Additionalsamplingtripsweremadein1986-1993.
ThiscommitteehasfocusedinlargepartonrequirementsspecifiedintheMOUrelatedtoannualradiationdoses,soilconcentrationsoftransuranicradionuclides(alpharadiation),andmeasurementsneededbeforeandafterresettlement.Thus,themeasurements,analyses,anddoseestimatesmadebyscientistsfromLLNLandBNLlieattheheartofthecommittee'sconcernsandresponsibilities.Theapproachesusedbybothorganizationsareillustratedin
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Fig.3.LLNLscientistsobtaininformationontheradionuclidecontentofthevarioussamplesshown,andthencalculatepossibleradionuclideintakesonthebasisoftheamountsofintakeofair,water,andfood.Thisinformationisthencoupledwithmodelsofradionuclidemetabolismanddosimetrytocalculatetheinternaldepositionandretentionoftheseradionuclidesandtheresultinginternalradiationdose.SuchanapproachmakesitpossibletoestimatetheaccumulationofradionuclidesandtheconsequentinternaldoseintheRongelappeopleafterresettlement.
ThemeasurementsonindividualsbyBNLscientistsprovidedirectinformationonthepresenceofradionuclidesinthebody.Whole-bodycountingprovidesinformationonthetotal-bodycontentofradionuclidesthatemitphotonsofsufficientenergytoescapethebodyandbedetectedbythewhole-bodycounter.Analysesofradionuclidesexcretedinurineandfecesindicatewhichradionuclidesarepresentinthebodyonagivenday,regardlessofwhethertheyemitalpha,beta,orgammaradiation.Metabolicmodelsareusedtocomputethetotal-bodycontentofeachradionuclidemeasured.Oncethetotal-bodycontenthasbeenestimatedbywhole-bodycountingorexcretionanalyses,metabolicanddosimetricmodelsareusedtocomputetheradiationdoseresultingfromthisbodyburden.
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Figure3.InternaldoseassessmentsforRongelappeople.
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TheLLNLapproachcanbeusedtoestimateeitherpastorfutureenvironmentalexposureofpersonsonRongelapAtoll;theBNLmeasurementsprovideestimatesofthecurrentbodycontentofradionuclidesofinterest.Themeasurementsandmodelingapproachesusedbythetwolaboratoriesarerelatedandcanbeusedtoobtaincomparabledata.TheBNLmeasurementsoftotal-bodyradionuclidecontentatareferencetimeshouldprovidedoseestimatesthatagreewiththepredictionforthesametimeyieldedbytheLLNLmodelsbasedonenvironmentalpathways.
Itisobviousthatmanyscientificvariablesareassociatedwitheachapproach.Toprovidethebestinformationonradionuclideexposureandradiationdose,thesevariablesmustbedealtwithinscientificallyacceptableanddefensibleways.ThiscommitteehasreviewedwhathasbeendoneaboutdoseassessmentinthepastandwhatfurthershouldbedonebeforeresettlementoftheRongelappeople.Inparticular,theCommitteehasdirecteditseffortstofiverelatedsubjects:
Environmentalsamplingandanalysis.
Dietmodels.
Measurementsonhumans.
Dosimetryanditsapplication.
Uncertaintyandvariabilityindoseprojection.
Eachofthosesubjectsisexploredindetailinsubsequentchaptersofthisreport.
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2.EnvironmentalSamplingandAnalysis
SamplingTechniques
ThischapterdescribesandevaluatestheLLNLenvironmentalsamplingprogram.Theassessmentisbasedona1.5-dvisitinOctober1993bytwocommitteememberstoreviewtheenvironmentallaboratorydirectedbyW.L.RobisonatLLNL,onevaluationofdataprovideddirectlytothecommitteebyW.L.Robison,andonevaluationoftheproceduresdescribedbyW.L.Robisoninhispublications(see,forexample,Robisonetal,1993).
DescriptionoftheLLNLenvironmentalsamplingprogram
TheLLNLenvironmentalprogramhassampledsoil,vegetation,water,andfoodstuffsonseveralislandsofRongelapAtollandnumerousotherislandsandatollsintheMarshallIslands.ThesemeasurementsprovideinformationontheradionuclidecontentofcomponentsoftheprojectedRongelapdietandonmaterial,suchassoil,thatmightbeinadvertentlyingested.LLNLhasalsoestimatedwhole-bodyexposurefromexternalsourcesofradiation.Ourreviewfocusesonsoilsamplingbecausesoilsarethemajorsourceofexposuretoplutoniumandonthesamplingofthreefoodstuffscoconut,breadfruit,andpandanusfruitsbecausethesearetheprimarysourcesofcesium-137exposureandaremajorcomponentsofboththeimported-foods-availableandlocal-foods-onlydiets(W.Robisonetal.1993).Inhalationandingestionviawaterdonotappearassignificantsourcesofinternalradiationexposure.
Thenatureofthesamplingprogramhaschangedovertime.Theinitial1978samplingprogram,whichcomplementedtheEG&G
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Corporation'saerialgamma-rayspectroscopysurvey,wasundertakentocharacterizethedistributionandamountsofradionuclidesonmanyofthenorthernMarshallIslands,notjustthoseofRongelapAtoll(Robisonetal.,1993).Thatcharacterizationsamplingwasnotdesignedtoestimatethestatisticaldistributionsofradionuclidesontheisland;instead,thefocuswasonestimatingtheradionuclideconcentrationsinselectedsoilsandvegetationandthedepthprofilesofradionuclidesinthesoil.OnRongelapIsland,soilandfoodstuffsampleswerecollectedatarbitrarylocationsalongthelengthoftheisland.LatertripsusedavarietyofsamplingdesignstocharacterizedifferentaspectsofradionuclidedistributiononRongelap.Somesampleswerecollectedbywalkingalongtransects;otherswerecollectedatarbitrarilychosenlocations.Fine-scalespatialvariationwithina1x1-mareawassampledinoneregionoftheislandwithrelativelyhighactivity.TheregionaroundthevillageonRongelapIslandwasextensivelysampled.Suchcharacterizationsamplingprovidesinformationaboutthelocationsactuallysampled,butthereisnostatisticallyreliablemethodtodrawconclusionsaboutunsampledareasfromsuchsampling.
Inthelastfewyears,LLNLhasconductedsystematicsamplingfroma100-msamplinggrid,illustratedinFig.4,thatcoversthevegetatedareaoftheisland.Thegridwasoriented
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paralleltotherowsoftreesinthecoconutplantation,andthegridoriginwasdefinedasthenorthernmostcoconuttree.Foreachpointinthesystematicsamplinggridatwhichtherewasacoconut,breadfruit,orpandanustree,asoil-depthprofilewasdeterminedbydiggingasoilpitandcollectingsoilfromdepthsof0-5cm,5-10cm,10-15cm,15-25cm,25-40cm,and40-60cm.Deepersoilfractionswerenotsampled,becauseobservedactivitiesinthesamplesfrom40-60cmwerelow.Inthecaseofafewgridlocations,nofoodstuffwasnearbyandnosoilprofilewascollectedatthesepoints.Iftherewasacoconut,breadfruit,orpandanustreeclosetothesamplingpoint,nutsandfruitswerealsocollected.Becauseofthewidespreadplantingofcoconutsacrosstheisland,coconutswereusuallyfoundclosetothedesignatedsamplingpoints,butbreadfruitandpandanustreesarelessfrequentandmorescatteredacrosstheisland.Thestaffthatperformedthefieldsamplingappeartohavetakenconsiderableefforttofollowthesystematicsamplingplan.Onthecommittee'svisittoRongelap,anumberofsiteswereobservedwhereaccesspathswerecutthroughthethickscrubtoreachsamplingpoints.InRobison'sopinion(W.L.Robison,personalcommunication,1993),allbreadfruitandpandanustreesinthevicinityofthedesertedvillageonRongelapIslandhavebeensampled.
EvaluationoftheLLNLenvironmentalsamplingprogram
Ingeneral,thegoalofanystatisticalsamplingprogramistodrawconclusionsaboutsomegeneralpopulationfromasetofobservedvalues.Astatisticalsamplingprogramcanbeevaluatedbyconsideringfourquestions:
Whatpopulationisbeingdescribedandisthatchoiceappropriate?
Aresamplelocationschosenwithanappropriatetechnique?
Isthenumberofsamplessufficienttoobtainthedesiredprecision?
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Areappropriatetechniquesusedtodrawconclusionsfromtheresultsofsampling?
Asnotedabove,therehavebeentwosamplingprogramsonRongelap:theinitialcharacterizationsamplingatarbitrarilychosenpositionsandamorerecentsystematicsamplingbasedona100-mgrid.Thecharacterizationsamplingcannotbeusedtodrawconclusionsaboutunsampledlocations,becausetheprobabilitythatanindividuallocationorsourceofvegetationwassampledisunknownandarbitrary.Wefocusonthesystematicsamplingbecauseitcanbeusedtodrawconclusionsaboutunsampledlocations.Weconsidersoilsamplingandfoodstuffsamplingseparatelybecausetheirgoalsareslightlydifferent.
Soilsampling
Thegoalofthesoil-samplingprogramthatwasconductedbyLLNLwastodrawconclusionsaboutsoilradionuclideconcentrationsatanylocationonRongelap.Itshouldbenoted,however,thattheonlysoilssampledwerefromlocationsinthevicinityoffoodstufftrees.Suchaprotocolisconservativeandislikelytooverestimatesoiltransuranicconcentrations,inasmuchasthereissomeevidencethattheunsampledareas(betweentrees)arelikelytohavelowerconcentrationsoftransuranicsthanthesampledareas(W.L.Robison,
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Figure4.MapofRongelapIslandwithsamplinglocationsindicated.
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personalcommunication,1993).
Thepreferredmethodtodrawasystematicsampleistochooseastartingpointrandomly.TheLLNLgridwasstartedatthenorthernmostcoconuttree.Becausetheislandhasanirregularshape,thatcanbeconsideredasanacceptablechoiceofstartingpointandequivalenttoarandomstart.
Therearetwoseparateissuesconcerningcontributionsofsoilradionuclidestothetotaldose:theexposurefrom''average"conditionsandtheprobabilitythattherearelocalregionsofhighconcentrationsofradionuclides,commonlyreferredtoas"hotspots."Theestimatedcontributionsofsoilingestionandinhalationtothetotaldoseareconsideredsmall1.6%forallisotopes(Tables6and12inRobisonetal.,1993).Theconcernwithhotspotsisthatachanceencounterwithanunusuallyhighconcentrationofradionuclidesmightcontributeasubstantialdose;thisissueisofconcernmostlyforplutoniumandamericiumisotopesbecauseoftheirlongevity,althoughtheircontributiontothetotalaveragedoseisnormallyverysmall.InthecontextofthisreportandfortheformofradionuclidecontaminationonRongelap,ahotspotreferstothepossibilityoffindingasmallareawithsubstantiallyhigherradionuclideconcentrationthanthemeasuredaverage,nottoahotparticleasmightoccurfromfalloutfromareactoraccident.Initsdeliberationsthecommitteehasarbitrarilydefinedahotspottobeasmallregionwithradionuclideconcentrationofmorethan10timesthemeasuredaverage.
Theprobabilitythatahotspotissampledonasystematicsamplinggriddependsonthesizeandshapeofthehotspotandthespacingofthesamplinggrid(Gilbert,1987).Givenasinglecircularhotspotofradiusrandasquaregridofspacings,theprobabilitythatagridlocationfallswithinthehotspotcanbederivedtobe
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fors>2r.Hot-spotsamplingprobabilitiesforaselectionofgridspacingsandthreeradiiaregiveninTable2-1.
The100-mgridusedonRongelapIslandhasamoderateprobabilityofsamplingalarge(28-m)hotspot,butaverylowprobabilityofsamplingsmallerhotspots.However,anextremelyfinegridwouldbeneededtosamplesmall(10-mor5-m)hotspotsreliably.Foragivenareatobesampled,thenumberofsamplesrequiredincreasesasgridspacingisreduced.Forexample,a20-mgridrequires25timesasmanysamplesasa100-mgrid.TheprobabilitiesinTable2-1werederivedforcircularhotspots;thedetectionprobabilitiesaredifferentforsquareorrectangularhotspots,buttheshapeofhotspotdoesnotaffectthebasicconclusionsofthesamplingprogram.
Anyreasonablesamplinggridisunlikelytodetectaverysmall,veryhotareathatmightberandomlyplacedonRongelapIsland.However,twoconsiderationssuggestthattheprobabilityoftherebeingsuchahotspotissmall:theBRAVOfalloutprecipitatedfromarelativelyhighelevationandwasfinelydispersed.Onestatisticalconsequenceisasmall-scalespatialcorrelationbetweenradionuclideconcentrationsinnearbysamples(thisisdiscussedingreaterdetaillater).
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Table2-1.ProbabilityThataSingleCircularHotSpotofSelectedRadiusIsSampledbyaGridofSelectedSpacing
GridSpacing Probabilityofsamplingahotspotofradius:
28ma 10m 5m
200m 0.062 0.008 0.002
100mb 0.250 0.008 0.008
50m >0.990 0.03 0.03
25m >0.990 0.12 0.12
20m >0.990 0.20 0.20
aCircleofradius28mcoversabout1/4ha.
bGridusedbyLLNLsamplingprogram.
ThepreviousanalysisoftheprobabilityofsamplinghotspotsdidnotincorporateanyinformationfromtheobservedamountsofradionuclidesinRongelapsoil.Asecondapproachtoevaluatingtheprobabilityoftherebeinghotspotsistospecifyaradionuclideconcentrationthatdefinesahotspot,andthenask,whatistheprobabilitythattheremightbesuchaconcentrationinasmallrandomlychosenareabasedonobserveddistributions.Thecommitteeagreesthataconcentration10-timestheobservedmeanlevelisareasonabledefinitionofahotspot.ForRongelapIsland,thislevelofconcentrationforplutoniumwouldbeabout35pCi/g.Theobserveddataforsoilconcentrationscanthenbeusedtoestimatetheprobabilitythatthesoilplutoniumconcentrationinasmallareamightexceed35pCi/g.
Ifsoilplutoniumconcentrationswereknowntobenormallydistributed,thedesiredprobabilityofagivenconcentrationcanbe
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calculatedfromthecumulativedistributionfunctionofthenormaldistribution.However,probabilityplotsofthesoilplutoniumdata(e.g.,Robisonetal.,1993,Fig.10)suggestthatneitheranormalnoralognormaldistributionisappropriatetoestimateprobabilitiesintheextremeuppertailofthedistribution.Onesolutiontothisproblemistofindatransformationofthedatathatoptimallyfitsanormaldistribution,thenestimateprobabilitiesusingthetransformeddistribution.Onebroadclassoftransformationsthatcanbeusedistheclassofpowertransformations:
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Alogtransformationcorrespondstol=0,thesquare-roottransformationcorrespondstol=0.5,andnotransformationcorrespondstol=1.Theoptimaltransformationtonormalitycanbedefinedas1)thelthatmaximizesthecorrelationbetweenthetransformeddataandnormalorderscores(Stoline,1991),or2)thelthatproducestransformeddatawithaskewnessclosestto0.Theseapproachesareusedwithtwosamplesofsoilplutoniumdata:the22observationsfromthesystematicsamplinggridand110observationsfrommappedlocationsacrossRongelap.
Becausethemeanandstandarddeviationareestimatedfromthedata,thereissomesamplingvariationintheestimatedprobabilities.Thissamplingvariationissmallerinlargersamples.Anupperconfidenceboundonthehotspotprobabilitycanbecalculatedusingtablesbasedonnon-centraltdistributions(OwenandHua,1977).
Theoptimaltransformationstonormalityaredifferentforthetwogroupsofdata.Boththecorrelationandskewnesscriteriaindicatethesamechoiceoftransformation:l=0.8istheoptimaltransformationforthegriddata,whilel=0.4istheoptimaltransformationforthelargerdataset(Table2-2).Bothsetsofdataindicatethattheprobabilityofahotspotisextremelysmall,1in100,000orless.Upper99%confidenceboundsonthehotspotprobabilitiesarealsosmall,40in100,000or13in100,000,dependingonthechoiceofdataset(Table2-2).Theexactvaluesofthehotspotprobabilitiesandupperconfidenceboundsdodependslightlyonthechoiceoftransformation,buttheyareallsmall.IftheobservedvaluesofsoilplutoniumconcentrationsaretakenasrepresentativeofsoilplutoniumconcentrationsinunobservedareasofRongelapIsland,thentheprobabilitythatasmallareacontainsahighconcentrationofplutoniumisextremelysmall.Thenumericalvaluesofhotspotprobabilitiesdependontheextrapolationfromthedistributionofobserveddatatothedistributionofhighconcentrations.Becausethe
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assumedcriticalvalue(35pCi/g)ismuchgreaterthanthelargestobservedvalue,someformofextrapolationisnecessarytomakethecalculation,butitisverydifficulttoverifythevalidityoftheextrapolation.
Foodstuffs
ThesamplingoffoodstuffonRongelapismoredifficulttoevaluatebecausenoquantitativegoalspecifiedtheprecisionrequiredforthesamplingprogram.Forexample,asurveytoestimatethemeanconcentrationofplutoniuminsoilmightspecifythatthestandarderrorofthemeanistobelessthan1pCi/m2,andthisrequiredprecisioncouldthenbeusedtocalculatetherequirednumberofsamples.Thequality-assuranceplanfortheLLNLprogram(W.L.Robison,personalcommunication,1993)specifiedacceptablecountingerrorsforeachsample,buttheseprovidednospecificationofthedesiredaccuracyforestimatesofpopulationparameters.Thepopulationparametersusedinthedoseassessmentarethemean,variance,andtypeofdistributionofradionuclideconcentrationsinfoodstuffs.SamplenumbersoffoodstuffandsoilsareshowninTable2-3.
Attentionisfocusedonsamplesizestoestimatethecesiumconcentrationinfoodstuffsbecause,accordingtothedoseassessment,cesiuminfoodstuffscontributesalargefractionofthetotaldose(Robisonetal.,1993).Thecommitteeestimatedmeanconcentrationsbecausethedosetothemaximallyexposedresidentdependsmoreonthemeancesiumconcentration
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Table2-2.Probabilityofhotspotsexceeding35pCi/gofPuonRongelap.
Datafrom100mgridonRongelap(n=22).
l* r**Estimatedprobability upper99%confidencebound
optimaltransformationtonormality:
0.8 0.986 0.00000 0.0004
othercandidatetransformationstonormality:
0.6 0.981 0.00000 0.0020
0.7 0.985 0.00000 0.0009
0.9 0.984 0.00000 0.0002
1.0 0.981 0.00000 0.0001
DatafromalllocationsonRongelap(n=110)
l* r**Estimatedprobability upper99%confidencebound
optimaltransformationtonormality:
0.4 0.996 0.00001 0.00013
othercandidatetransformationstonormality:
0.2 0.989 0.00039 0.00292
0.3 0.994 0.00006 0.00093
0.5 0.995 0.00001 0.00002
0.6 0.992 0.00000 0.00000
*lspecificesthetransformationtonormality.
**risthecorrelationbetweenthetransformeddataandnormalorder
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scores;valuescloserto1indicatebetterfittoanormaldistribution.
andondifferencesindietandindividualphysiologyamongtheRongelapnativesthanonthevarianceincesiumconcentrationinfoodstuffs(Robisonetal.1993).
Theexpectedwidthofa95%confidenceintervalforthemeanisoneofseveralapproachestodetermininganadequatesamplesize.Onecriterionmightbethatthesamplebelargeenoughfortheexpectedwidthtobesmallerthanthepopulationstandarddeviation.Astrictercriterionmightbethattheexpectedwidthbesmallerthanhalfthepopulationstandarddeviation.
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Table2-3.EnvironmentalSamplesandInterviewsContributingtoRongelapDietInformation
EnvironmentalsamplesanalyzedbyLLNLasofOctober1993*
Total Onsamplinggrid
Csindrinking-coconutmeat 293trees 134trees
Csinpandanus 77trees 22trees
Csinsoils(0-5cm) 659samples 186samples
Puinsoils(0-5cm) 208samples 22samples
Samplesusedtoestimatevariabilityamongindividuals:
Diet 34Ujelangwomen
Biologicalhalf-life(cesium) 23Marshallesemen
*NumbersmayvaryfromRobisonetal.,1993,becausesometreeshavebeensampledmorethanonce.
Theexpectedwidthofaconfidenceintervaldependsonthevarianceofthesamplemean,whichdependsonthesamplesizeandpropertiesofthepopulation.Thevarianceofthemeanfromasystematicsamplecanbewrittenas
wherenisthesamplesize,Nisthepopulationsize, isthepopulationvariance,andrwSthecorrelationamongvaluesinasystematicsample.Thecorrelationrwisusuallyunknown,butifthepopulationisinrandomorder,rw=0.ThenumberofcoconuttreesonRongelap(N)isabout10,000,muchlargerthanthesamplesize.Hence,thesamplingvariancesimplifiestothatforrandom-sampling:
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Ifthedatacanbetransformedtoanormaldistribution,thenthewidthofa95%confidenceintervalforthetransformedmeanisgivenby
wheret0.975,n-1isthe97.5percentileofastudenttdistributionwithn-1degreesoffreedom.
Thesamplestandarddeviationisaslightlybiasedestimatorofs,butanunbiasedestimate
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canbeobtainedbymultiplyingsbyacorrectionfactor(GurlandandTripathi1971)togettheexpectedwidthsshowninTable2-4.TheexpectedwidthsinTable2-4arecalculatedforsimplerandomsamplesofvarioussamplesizesfromaninfinitepopulationandareexpressedrelativetothepopulationstandarddeviation.Expectedwidthsareslightlysmallerforfinitepopulations.Atleast19samplesareneededfortheexpectedwidthtobelessthanthepopulationstandarddeviation.Atleast65samplesareneededtomeetthestrictercriterionofawidthlessthans/2.With150samples,theexpectedwidthisabouts/3(Table2-4).
Thenumberofsamplesofdrinkingcoconutsfromthe100-msystematicgridislargeenoughtoprovideareasonablypreciseestimateofmeancesium.Theexpectedwidthofthe95%confidenceintervaliss/3.ThenumberofpandanusandbreadfruitonRongelapissmaller;however,inthevicinityofthevillageallormostofthesetreeshavebeensampled.Inthiscase,thesampleestimatesarealsopreciseestimatesofthepopulationmean,althoughthesamplesizesaresmaller.Itisdifficulttoevaluatetheprecisionoftheestimatedcesiumconcentrationsintheotherfoodstuffsusedinthedoseassessmentbecausetherewasnoprobabilitysamplingandthepopulationsizesaregenerallyunknown.
Themeancesium-137concentrationinmanyfoodstuffsislikelytobepoorlyestimatedbecauseofthesmallsamplesizes.Forexample,thereare5samplesofarrowroot,7samplesofporkmuscle,6samplesofporkliver,and4samplesofporkheart(Robisonetal.,1993;Tables20andB-1).BecausestandarddeviationsarenotcomputedbyRobisonetal.(1993;Table20),itappearsthatthereareevensmallernumbersofsamples,perhapsonlyoneeach,ofpapaya,chickenmuscle,chickenliverandchickengizzard.Chapter6onuncertaintyandvariabilityindoseprojectionexploressomeoftheconsequencesofthesmallsamplesizes.
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Analternativecriteriontoassessasamplingplanisthatitprovidesufficientlyaccurateestimatesofextremevaluesinapopulation.ThiscriterionisespeciallyrelevanttoRongelapresettlement,wheretheMOUisconcernedwiththedosetothemaximallyexposedresident.Onestatisticalevaluationofwhetherextremevaluesareadequatelysampledisbasedonconfidenceboundsontheproportionofapopulationthatexceedsthelargestsamplevalue.Thesecanbecalculatedwithoutassumingthatvaluesinapopulationhaveaspecificdistributionalform(e.g.,normal)byusingnonparametrictolerancebounds(HahnandMeeker,1991).Thetoleranceboundthatisrelevanthereistheestimate,withgivenconfidence,oftheproportionofthepopulationthatexceedsthelargestobservedvalueinasample.
Foraninfinitepopulation,a95%upperconfidenceboundontheproportionofindividualsthatexceedsthelargestsamplevalueisgivenby
wherenisthesamplesizeandFisthe95thpercentileofanFdistributionwith2,2ndegreesoffreedom(HahnandMeeker1991).ForafinitepopulationofsizeN,theupper95%confidenceboundcanbeexpressedasanumberofpersons.Itisgivenbythesmallest
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Table2-4.ExpectedWidthsof95%ConfidenceIntervalsfortheMeanandNonparametric95%ConfidenceBoundsontheNumber(inthePopulation)thatExceedtheLargestObservationintheSample
samplesize
ExpectedNumberinthepopulation(sizeN)thatexceedwidththelargestobservedvalueinthesample(sizen)
n (s) N=50 N=100 N=200
5 2.6 22 45 90 45.1
10 1.5 12 25 51 25.9
15 1.12 8 17 35 18.1
20 0.94 6 13 27 13.9
25 0.84 5 10 22 11.3
50 0.56 0 5 11 5.8
75 0.43 3 7 3.9
100 0.40 0 5 3.0
150 0.32 3 2.0
200 0.28 0 1.5
500 0.17 0.6
ainpercentoftotal
number,k,thatsatisfiesthefollowingexpression:
Themaximumobservedconcentrationofcesium-137inthemeatofdrinkingcoconutsthoseharvestedatthepropertimefordrinkingtheliquidinthecoconutwas14.7pCi/g(decaycorrectedto1995).Itis
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reasonabletotreatthepopulationsofsoilandcoconuttreesashavinganinfinitesizebecausetherearemanymorelocationsandcoconuttreesthanweresampled.AccordingtoTable2-4andthesamplesizesgiveninTable2-3,itisunlikelythatthemeatfromanydrinkingcoconutswillbeaslargeasthemaximumobserved,14.7pCi/g,butitisreasonablycertainthatnomorethan2%ofthecoconuttreeswillhavevalueslargerthanthat.Ifoneassumesthatthereareabout100pandanustreesonRongelap,itisreasonablycertainthatthefruitsofveryfewtrees(nomorethanthree)havecesiumconcentrationslargerthan33.3pCi/g,thehighestconcentrationfoundinthe77measuredtrees.
Incontrast,measurementsofthedietandbiologicalcharacteristicsoftheRongelappeopleprovidemuchlesspreciseestimatesofmeanorextremevalues.Dietestimatesarebasedon34women;biologicalhalf-lifeestimatesofcesiumarebasedon23men.Theexpectedwidthsofconfidenceintervalsforthemeansare75-85%ofthepopulationstandarddeviation(Table
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2-4).Ifthepopulationsizeistakentobe200,therearelikelytobeabout22people(about10%ofthepopulation)withdietsorbiologicalhalf-livesmoreextremethanthelargestvaluesfoundinthesample.Samplesofabout25personsofapopulationofthissizedonotprovidegoodestimatesofeitherthemeanorthemaximum.
Theresultsfromasystematicsamplearecommonlytreatedasthoughthesamplewasasimplerandomsample.ThisistrueoftheLLNLRongelapdoseassessment,theworkplanoftheRongelapAtollResettlementProject(S.Simon,personalcommunication,1994),andouranalysisillustratedinTable3-1.Analyzingdatafromasystematicsampleasthoughtheycamefromasimplerandomsampleisstatisticallyjustifiableifthreeconditionsaremet(Gilbert,1987):
Thereisnotrendinthepopulation.
Therearenostratainthepopulation.
Valuesareuncorrelatedacrossspace.
Eachofthoseissuescanbeexaminedwiththeavailabledata.Weconcentrateonplutoniuminthesoil,becauseofitsinteresttothepeopleofRongelap,andcesiuminthesoil,pandanus,anddrinkingcoconuts,becauseitcontributesthemajorfractionofthecalculateddose.Pandanusanddrinkingcoconutswerechosenbecausetheyarelargecomponentsofthedietandhaverelativelyhighcesiumcontent,accordingtotheLLNLdietmodelanddoseassessment.
Threepossibletrendswereconsidered:variationsinconcentrationsofradionuclidesacrosstheislandinaroughlyeast-westdirection,acrosstheislandinaroughlynorth-southdirection,andfromthebeachlinetothecenteroftheisland,measuredbythedistancefromasamplingpointtothenearestbeach.Noneofthefourvariables(plutoniuminsoilorcesiuminsoil,pandanus,ordrinkingcoconuts)showsanytrendsinmeanconcentrationintheeast-westnorth-southdirections
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(Figs.5,6,7,and8).However,thevarianceincesiumincoconutsishigherattheeasternandwesternendsoftheislandthaninthecenteroftheisland.Exceptforcesiuminpandanus,theconcentrationsincreasewithdistancefromthebeach.
Thestructureofthesoilinthevillageareaisquitedifferentfromthatinthecoconutgroves.Inthevillage,thesoilhasmuchlessorganicmatter,hasbeendisturbedbyconstruction,andofteniscoveredwithlayersofcrushedcoral.Soilsurfaceconcentrationsofcesiumandplutoniumaresignificantlylowerinthevillageareathaninthecoconutgroves(Figs.5and6).Asmallnumberofpandanusandothertreesgrowinthevicinityofthevillage.Theconcentrationsofcesiuminthesetreesaresimilartothosefoundinotherareasoftheisland.
TheonlysetofdatathatcanbeusedtodrawconclusionsaboutunsampledplacesonRongelapisthesystematicsample,becausetherearenotabletrendsandstrataacrosstheisland.Meancesiumandplutoniumconcentrationscalculatedfromalltreeandsoilsamplesdifferfromthosecalculatedfromthesamplinggridalone.Sitesandtreesonthesamplinggridcoverallareasoftheislandwithaboutequalprobability.Thecharacterizationsamplescoversomeareasoftheislandexcessively,suchasthevillagearea(forsoils)andthecenteroftheisland(fortrees).Oversamplinginthismannerbiasesthemean.Forexample,oversamplingofvillageareas,aswasthecaseforcesiumandplutoniummeasurements,canreducetheoverall
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Figures5.TrendsinthesoilplutoniumconcentrationonRongelap;[Pu]inpCi/g.
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Figure6.Trendsinsoilcesiumconcentration(0-5cm)onRongelap;[Cs]inpCi/g.
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Figure7.TrendsinpandanusCsconcentrationonRongelap;[Cs]inpCi/g.
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Figure8.TrendsincesiumconcentrationinmeatofdrinkingcoconutsonRongelap;[Cs]inpCi/g.
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meanbyasmuchas25%.TheLLNLdoseassessmentshoulduseeitherestimatescalculatedfromjustthesamplinggridtodescriberadionuclideconcentrationsinthesoilandcoconuttreesorusearea-weightedaverages.Forpandanus,breadfruit,andotherfoodstuffs,forwhichmostorallofthepopulationhasbeensampled,itisappropriatetousealltheavailabledata.
Spatialcorrelationwasexaminedonisland-wide,10-m,and10-cmscalesbyestimatingisotropicandanisotropicsemivariograms.Semivariogramsarecommonlyusedtodescribespatialvariationinsoilproperties(fordescriptionsandusesofsemivariograms,see,forexample,Burrough,1991;Cressie,1991;andWarricketal.,1986).Insuchplots,departureofthecurvefromthehorizonalasymptoteindicatesapositivecorrelation.Small-scalecesium-concentrationdataareavailablefrompit22,a1x1-mareainaregionoftheislandwithrelativelyhighconcentrationsofcesiuminthesoil,andtwo100x100-msites.Withinpit22,soilsamplesweretakenat10-cmintervalsinasquaregrid.Intheotherregions,soilsamplesweretakenat10-mintervals.Onesitewasentirelyinthecoconutgrove;theothercrossedfromthevillagetothecoconutgrove.Becauseofthedifferencesincesiumconcentrationsinvillageandcoconut-grovesoil,onlythefirstsitecanbeusedtoestimatethespatialcorrelations.Therewasnodetectablespatialcorrelationontheisland-widescaleorthe10-mscale,butcesiumconcentrationsshowedsubstantialpositivecorrelationsinpit22(Fig.9).Siteswithin40to50cmofoneanotherhavesimilarcesiumconcentrations.Ifthespatialcorrelationfoundinpit22ischaracteristicoftherestoftheisland,thissmall-scalepositivecorrelationdecreasestheprobabilitythataverysmallhotspotexists.
Conclusions
ThesystematicsamplinggridusedbyLLNLisawidelyused,
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commonlyacceptedtechniquetosampleenvironmentalcharacteristics.Onlythedatafromthesamplinggridshouldbeused,however,toestimatethemeanandvariance,unlessmostoralloftheitemsonRongelaparesampled,e.g.,breadfruitandpandanustrees.
Thesamplesderivedfromthesamplinggridaresufficienttoprovidereasonablypreciseestimatesofthemeanconcentrationsofradionuclidesinthemajorfoodstuffs.Estimatesofthevarianceinthedistributionsofradionuclidesintheenvironmentarelessaccurate,buttheyhaveamuchsmallerimpactontheconclusionsofthedoseassessment.
Therearetrendsinsoilcesiumandplutoniumandcoconutcesiumconcentrationsfromthebeachtoinland.Somecareisneededtoanalyzethesedatabecauseofthetrends.Thecesiumconcentrationofpandanuscanbeanalyzedasthoughthedatawerecollectedfromanisland-widesimplerandomsample.
Analyticaltechniques
ThissectionbrieflyevaluatestheanalyticalmethodsusedbyLLNLtodeterminetheconcentrationofradioactiveisotopesofconcerninsoil,sediment,seawater,andbiotasamplesfromRongelapAtoll.TheproceduresusedaredescribedingreatdetailinanLLNLreport(Wongetal.,1994),andthemethodusedforpreconcentrationofplutoniumfromlarge
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Figure9.Semivariogramforcesiumandincesi-umconcentration.Small-scalespatialcorrelationestimatedfrom10-
cmgridsamplesinpit22:a.[Cs];b.In[Cs].Medium-scalespatialcorrelationestimatedfrom12-
mgridsamplesincoconutgrove:c.[Cs];d.In[Cs].Linesshowthefittedsphericalsemivariograms.Semivarianceslessthanasymptoticsemivarianceindicatepositivespatialcorrelationatthatdistance;[Cs]inpCi/g.
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volumesofnaturalwatershasbeenpublished(Wongetal.,1978).MuchadditionalinformationwasobtainedfromextensivediscussionswithW.L.RobisonoftheHealthandEcologicalAssessmentDivisionofLLNL.
Ingeneral,standardwell-provenprocedureswereusedinanalysesfortheisotopesofconcern.Internalstandardsandcarrierswereusedasappropriate.Samplestobeanalyzedforplutoniumwereconcentratedbymanganesedioxideprecipitationiftheywereaqueous(Wongetal.,1978)orashedanddigestedinconcentratednitricacidiftheyweresoil,sediment,orbiota(Wongetal.,1994).Afterdissolution,theplutoniumwasseparatedbyanionexchange(Dowex-1),electroplatedontoametaldisc,andanalyzedbyalphaspectrometry.Samplepreparationandanalysisforamericiumweresimilartothoseforplutonium,exceptthatachelatingion-exchangeresin,octyl(phenyl)-N,N-diisobutylcarbamoylmethylphosphineoxide(TRU-Spec),wasusedinsteadofastrong-baseanion-exchangeresin.Again,thesamplewaselectroplatedandcountedbyalphaspectrometry.
Theothertwoelementsofprimaryconcernareinthesestudieswerecesiumandstrontium.Cesium-137inaqueoussampleswasmeasuredbyextractionontoamicrocrystallineammoniumphosphomolybdatecation-exchangerfollowedbypurificationfrompotassiumandrubidiumbysorptionontoastrong-acidcationexchangeresin(BIO-REX40)andtheprecipitationofthecesiumwithchloroplatinicacidforbetacounting.Thecesium-137contentofmostsoilandbiotasamplescanbedetermineddirectlybygamma-rayspectrometrywithoutanypreparation.
Determinationofstrontium-90contentofaqueoussamplesrequiredpreconcentrationbycoprecipitationwithammoniumoxalate,dissolutioninnitricacidandprecipitationasstrontiumnitrate,dissolutioninwater,andprecipitationofstrontiumcarbonate.
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Pretreatmentofsoilandbiotasampleswasthesameasthatofplutoniumsamples.Thestrontiumshouldbepresentasastrontiumnitrateprecipitateinthenitricacidsolution;itwasseparated,dissolvedinwater,andprecipitatedasstrontiumcarbonate.Afterdissolutioninhydrochloricacid,thestrontiumsolutionswereallowedtostandatleast18dforthestrontium-90-yttrium-90equilibriumtobeestablishedandthencountedonalow-backgroundbetacounter.Theyttrium-90contentmustalsobeconsideredinthedeterminationofstrontium-90concentration.
Conclusions
Themethodsusedintheseanalysesarewellestablished,provenprocedures,manyofwhichweredevelopedbyLLNLandusedthereforanumberofyears.Wheretherearealterationsintheseprocedures,theygenerallyinvolvetheuseofnew,moreefficiention-exchangeresinsandextractionsolvents.Thewrittenproceduresareverythorough,firstdescribingthechemicalbasisforthemethodandthengivingacareful,step-by-stepsetofinstructionsthatareeasytounderstandandfollow.Also,possiblesourcesoferrorarerecognizedandcautionedagainstatappropriatepointsintheprocedure,forexample,theneedforcareinpipettingatracersolution,tocolor-codewashbottlestoavoidmistakesaboutwhattheycontain,andtouseaTeflon-coatedstirringrodintransferringsolutions.Thesemightseemtobeinconsequentialpoints,butmanyanalyseshavebeenabortedbyfailuretoobservesuchseeminglytrivialpoints.
Theanalyticalprocedureswerecarriedoutunderanextensivequality-assurance-quality-
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controlprogram(Mountetal.,undated).Inaddition,asplit-sampleprogramwasunderwaywiththeNationwideRadiologicalStudyoftheRepublicoftheMarshallIslands(S.L.Simon,personalcommunication,1994).Limitedresults(S.Duffy,personalcommunication,1993)fromtheanalysisofcoconutmilkandmeatinthissplit-sampleprogramindicateacceptableagreementbetweenthetwolaboratories.Becauseofthesoundchemistryandthoroughnessoftheanalyticalprocedures,theeffectivenessofthequality-controlprogram,andtheearlydatafromthesplit-sampleprogram,thereislittlereasontoquestiontheaccuracyandprecisionoftheLLNLanalyticaldata.
Moreover,anearlierconcernofthecommitteeappearstohavebeeneliminated.Foratime,therewasaconsiderablebacklogofunanalyzedsamplesthatwerecollectedinagridsamplingprogram;lackofdataonthosesampleswouldhaveimpairedproperdoseassessmentonRongelap.Fortunately,analysisofthesamplesisnowessentiallycomplete,andalltheplannedanalyticalresultsareavailableforuseindoseassessment.
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3.DietaryModelsThetechnicalactivities(environmentalsamplinganddosemeasurement)neededtosupportanydecisiononresettlementarethemselvesdiverseandscientificallysophisticated.However,theintegrationandinterpretationoftheresultingdatainamannerthatpermitsreliabledoseprojectionsdependonthedevelopmentofscientificallysounddietmodelsappropriatetothepopulationofconcern.
Thedevelopmentofamodelthatprovidesusefulpredictionsofdietaryintakeunderavarietyoflifecircumstancesisnoteasy.Nevertheless,accurateestimatesofexposuretoradioactivitydependonarobustdietmodel,particularlyinthenorthernMarshallIslands,wherealargecomponentoftheradiationdoseappearstobecontributedbycesium-137,whichisconcentratedincommonlocalfoods.AnumberofgroupshavestudiedfoodhabitsintheMarshallIslands,includingKotzebue(1821,1830),Paulding(1831),Finsch(1893),Snefft(1903),KramerandNevermann(1938),Lawrence(1943),Murdock(1943),Mason(1947,1967),Tobin(1952,1953),andMaramba(1960).However,thedatafromthosesourceshavelittlevalueforuseindoseprojectionsbecausetheyareold(and,therefore,notintunewithchangesindietaryhabits)andgenerallynotquantitative.ThemostrecentinformationondietthatmightberelevanttotheresettlementofRongelapcomesfromtheMarshallIslandsNationalNutritionSurveyof1991,whichfocusedonthegrowthofchildrenandinfantfeedingpractices(RMIMinistryofHealth,1991);italsodoesnotprovidequantitativeestimatesoffoodintakes.
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OnlytwosurveyshaveprovideddatathatareofpotentialvalueinquantitativelyestimatingadultdietaryintakesandarereasonablyappropriatetotheproposedresettlementofRongelap:a1978surveyoftheUjelangcommunitybyMicronesianLegalServicesCorporation(Robisonetal.,1980,1992,1993)anda1970ssurveyofthedietaryhabitsofthenorthernMarshallesebyNaiduetal.(1980).Athoroughassessmentofthestrengthsandweaknessesofbothsurveysisneededtointerpretanycalculationsofradiologicalexposurebasedontheirdata;suchanassessmentisprovidedbelow.
UjelangDietModel
TheUjelangdietmodelisbasedonasurveyoftheUjelangcommunityin1978bytheMicronesianLegalServicesCorporation(MLSC)staffwiththeaidofaMarshallIslandsschoolteacheronUjelang(Robisonetal.,1992,1980).Althoughthesurveyhadweaknesses,itwasinmanywayssuperiortonationaldietsurveysintheUnitedStates(HumanNutritionInformationService,1988;PublicHealthService,1979;ScienceandEducationAdministration,1980).Inparticular,thesesurveyssufferfrompoorparticipationrates,non-optimalstatisticalselectionprocedures,lackoftimeliness,orinherentlimitationofthemethods(GuentherandTippett,1993).ThedietsurveysoftheRongelapandrelatedpopulationsprovidecriticaldata
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fortheevaluationofprojecteddosesbecauseoftheimportanceoftheingestionpathwayforexposuretoradionuclides.InviewoftheneedforprecisedosecalculationstoexaminetheconditionssetforthintheMOU,therequirementsforanacceptabledietsurveyfarexceedthoseforusualsurveys.
ThepositiveaspectsoftheUjelangdietsurveyincludethefollowing:
Thesamplingplanwasreasonable.Itwasbasedonanenumerationofallmembersofthepopulation.Subjectsweregroupedbyageandsex,andanattemptwasmadetointerviewatleast20%ofthesubjectsineachcategory.
Thepurposeofthestudywascarefullyexplainedtoallsubjects.Anofficial(amagistrate)emphasizedtheimportanceofgivinganaccuraterecallthatneitherignoredsomefoodsbecausetheywere''unimportant''noroverestimatedintakeofotherstopleasetheinterviewer.
Trainedinterviewersconductedalltheinterviews,sodatacollectionwasstandardizedandfairlyuniform.
Thesurveyinstrumentwasdetailedandsoshouldhavehelpedsubjectstorememberdetailsabouttheirfoodintake.Anattemptwasmadetohelpsubjectsinestimatingservingsizesbymakingcomparisonstoa12-oz.can.Subjectswereaskedtoestimateintakesfordays,weeks,andmonths.
Thesurveyteamidentifiedthesituationinwhichlocalfoodsweremostapttobeconsumed(i.e.,famine)andaskeddetailedquestionsonboththatsituationandthetypicalsituation.
TheMLSCdietsurveyinUjelangalsohadshortcomings,aspresentedbelow,anditsdeficienciesmustberecognizedwhenusingthedatagenerated,especiallybecauseextrapolationsfromdiethavesucha
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criticaleffectonestimateddosesofingestedradionuclides.EachdeficiencymustbeconsideredinrelationtodifferentcontextsofMarshalleselife,butthefirstfourpresentedpotentiallyhavethemostimportantimpactsfromthepointofviewofdataapplication.
Althoughthemagistrateemphasizedtheimportanceofgivinganaccuraterecalloffoodseaten,theclimateofthesurveywaspoliticallycharged.Pritchard,whoconductedthesurveyfortheMLSC,toldthecommunitythat"anearliersurveyhadreportedwhatseemedtobeanunrealisticallyhighconsumptionrateforlocalfoods,particularlycoconuts,andifthesereportswereutilizedinassessingtherisk,therewasalmostnolikelihoodthatpeoplewouldbeabletoliveonEnjebiintheforeseeablefuture"(Pritchard,1979:2-3).BecausetheexiledEnewetokpeoplewould,atthatpoint,havedonevirtuallyanythingtoensuretheywouldbereturnedtoEnewetokAtoll(Carucci,1992),presentingtherequestfordietaryinformationinthiswayalmostcertainlyaffectedhowpeoplerespondedtothesurvey,particularlyresidents
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whoselandsweremainlyinthenorthern(Enjebi)halfofEnewetokAtoll.
Lackofinformationonsubjects'livingsituations,especiallyduringfamineperiods,limitstheinterpretationofdatafromthissurvey.AllUjelangresidentsover1yearofageareknowntohaveconsumedlargequantitiesofarrowroot,outofnecessity,duringafamineperiodin1978(theyearbeforethesurvey).ButUjelangpeopleareextremelymobile.SomeofthosereportingnoarrowrootconsumptionmightnothavelivedonUjelangatthetimeofthefamine.Theresearchersdidnotkeeptrackofresidents'histories,sothecausesofdiscrepanciesarenotimmediatelyapparent.AsnotedinthestudybyNaiduetal.(1980),typeAcommunities(outerislands,whereresidentsdependonimports,notlocalfood)havesubstantiallydifferentpatternsoffoodusefromothercommunities.Duringthe1978foodshortage,overadozenUjelangresidentstendedtappedcoconuttrees.Generalcoconutconsumption,particularlyofcoconutliquidandsproutedcoconuts,increaseswhenmenmakecopra.Duringfamines,coconutisincludedindishesnotdescribedinthesurvey(pikukuk,mokkir,andaojek).ThattheseareUjelangfoodswithdistinctivenames,perhapsnotknowntotheMarshallesetranslator,contributedtotheirnotbeingreportedinthesurvey.
Thereportedlowenergyintake(1392kcal/d)oftheMarshallesewheneatingan"indigenous"dietissurprisingandprobablyunrealistic(Robisonetal.,1992).Thisestimateislessthantheaveragerecommendedenergyintakefor25-to50-y-oldmenbutnotwomen,1,800and1380kcal/d,respectively(FoodandNutritionBoard,1989).Theserecommendedintakesconstituteageneralguideline,buttheirapplicabilitytoUjelangresidentsisnotknown.Thefoodintakeofsubjectsconsumingtheindigenousdietof1,392kcal/dwasreportedtobeonly40%oftheirtypicalintake,3490kcal/d(Robisonetal.,1992).Thatinvertstheprobableenergyrequirementsofadults.Island
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residentswouldexpendmoreenergyincollectingandpreparingindigenousfoodsthaninpreparingimported,oftenpre-packagedimporteditems.Adeficitinenergybalanceofthetypeindicatedbythedatawouldhavecausedthementoloseabout4lbofweightperweek.Therearenoreportsofsuchrapidweightlossduringthefamineperiod.
Anothermajorlimitationofthissurveywasthefailuretodistinguishfoodeventssystematically.Theresearchersdidaskabouttimesoffamine,aswellaseverydayconsumptionwhenimportedfoodswereavailable,buttheyfailedtodifferentiatebetweenfoodintakeatfeastsandonweekends,asopposedtoweekdayconsumption.Feasts,particularlyfirst-birthdaycelebrations,occurfrequently,andfoodintakeincreasesatthesetimes.Foodintakealsoincreasessubstantiallyduringthe4-monthperiodduringwhichlocalpeoplecelebrateChristmas(October-January),Enewetokliberationday,andEaster.AsthroughoutMicronesiaandPolynesia,foodintakeisgenerallygreateronweekendsthanonweekdays(Pelletier,1987).Foodintakealsovarieswithoccupation.Theintakeofparticularfoodsincreasegreatlyduringcopraproduction,andonextendedfishingandgatheringexpeditions.Inthissurvey,subjectsmighthavereportedtypicalintakesonweekdays,weekends,feastdays,orhypothetical"average"days.ItislikelythatUjelangresidentsvariedintheirinterpretationofa"typical"day.Subjectsmightormightnothaveincludedintheirestimatesspeciallaborconditions,weekdaysandweekends,feastdays,andthelengthycelebrationofChristmas.
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Theagestratificationsby5-yincrementsarecompromisedbythefactthat"peopleonUjelang[are]unsureoftheirownandtheirchildren'sagesandallthesefiguresshouldprobablyberead±1or2[years]"(Pritchard,1979a).Parentalestimatesof"ages"areagaininexactandprobablyshouldbe±5[years]''(Pritchard,1979a).Thus,thebalanceofsubjectsineachcategorymightbeskewedfromthe20%representationclaimedinthereport.
Interviewersweretrainedtoperformdietaryinterviews,buttheywerenotexperiencednutritionistsordietitians,norweretheyfamiliarwithUjelangfoods.Eventhelocal"Marshallese"schoolteacherwasan"in-married"manfromPingelapAtollwhospokeanacceptablevariantofthelocaldialect.Inaddition,thesurveyinstrumentwasadministereddifferentlyovertime.Somefoodswereaddedastheinterviewersbecameawareofthem(Pritchard,1979a:15);othersweremeasuredmoreaccuratelyasthesurveyprogressed(Pritchard,1979a:4).Duringthefirst2d,questionsweretranslated,oftenwithextensiveexplanation,andtheanswersweretranslatedbackfortranscriptiontothesurveyform.Afterthefirsttwodays,theMarshalleseassistant,whowasunfamiliarwiththeUjelangdialectofMarshallese,simplystatedthequestioninMarshalleseandtranslatedonlyanswersorrequestsforfurtherexplanationtotheinterviewer(Pritchard1979a:2).Thus,manylinguisticandnonverbalresponseswentuntranslatedafterdaytwo.
ThesurveyinstrumentwasbasedonageneralknowledgeofMarshallIslandsfoods,butitfailedtoexhibitaspecificknowledgeofthefooditemsonUjelangAtoll.Neitherthenamesofthefoodsnortheirmodesofpreparationwereaccountedforbythesurveyteam.Researchers"addedthetermmadotooursurveythesecondday,[but]theremaybesomeunderreportingsincethewordusedonUjelangisKiraj"(Pritchard,1979a:15).Attimes,thesurveyteam'slackofknowledgeoflocalmethodsofpreparingindigenousfoodscaused
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themtooverlooknumerousvariablesthatdirectlyaffectfoodconsumptionandcomposition.Forexample,porkismostoftenpreparedbyboiling,buttheinterviewersstatedthatporkwasbakedorreheatedinafryingpan(Pritchard,1979a:16).Similarproblemsaroseinrelationtococonuts,whichatthattimewereconsideredthemostcriticallocalfoodinrelationtoradioisotopeuptake(Pritchard,1979b).Inspiteofacommendableattempttocorroboratethegenerallevelsofcoconutconsumption(Pritchard,1979b),confusionpersistsinrelationtothestagesofcoconut,thephysicalcharacteristicsofcoconutatdifferentstages,andhoweachcoconutstageisrelatedtopatternsoffoodpreparationandconsumption(Pritchard,1979b:13,17).Someofthefooddesignations,suchas"Marshallesecake,"andquestionsusedinthesurveywereprobablyconfusingtotheinterviewees.Marshallesecakehasmultipleforms.Althoughonetypeincludessubstantialquantitiesofcoconut,anotherismadewithoutshreddedcoconut.Mokkir,aUjelangcreation,consistsofcakebrokenintobite-sizedbitsandmixedwithwarmcoconutcream.Thiscommonfeastfoodwasnotmentionedamongthelistoflocalconsumables.Tosomeextent,theinterviewerstriedtocompensateforthesesurveylimitationsbyaskingpeopletoestimatetheamountsofcoconutcreamaddedtofoodingeneralforasetperiod(Pritchard,1979b);peoplewhodidnotpreparethefoodwouldhavedifficultyinansweringthisquestion.
Althoughafamiliarvessel(a12-ozcolacan)wasdisplayedtohelppeopletoestimate
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quantitiesofingesteditems,noattemptwasmadetodemonstratehowmuchfoodordrinkcouldbecontainedinit.
Thesurveypopulationwassmall.Unintentionalcollusionduetotheinterviewsituationsmighthaveskewedsomeresults.Forexample,inonesituation,bothsubjectAandherdaughter,subjectB,reportedexactlythesameintakesoffoods(W.L.Robison,personalcommunication,1993).Theirresponsesaresuspect(althoughnotimpossible)becausein1978subjectAwasalarge,maturewomanandsubjectBwasslight.Extraneousvaluesmightalsohaveskewedtheresultsofthissmallsurvey.Forexample,subjectC,theyoungersisterofsubjectB,in1978sharedthesamecookhouse.Sheestimatedthatsheconsumed180gofbakedbreadperday;thatis2timesthenexthighestwoman'sestimateinthecommunityandover8timesthequantitybeingconsumedbysubjectB.AnotherexampleofquestionabledataconcernssubjectX,whoclaimedthatsheconsumed63gofarrowrootperdayaspartofhernormaldiet,notinfamineconditions.Thatis3timesthenexthighestwoman'sestimateinafieldof38inwhich32womenclaimedthattheyconsumednoarrowroot.AtranslationproblemprobablycausedsubjectXtomakeherestimate.Whateverthecause,theestimateskewedthedataonarrowrootconsumption.
Asistypicalofdietsurveys,thisonemadegreatdemandsonsubjects'memoriesandabilitiestoquantifyfoodintakes.Itisdoubtfulthatsubjectswereabletorememberallthefoodsthattheyconsumedortoestimateservingsizesaccurately.InrecentsurveysintheUnitedStatesandNorthernIreland,averagesubjectsreportedenergyintakes18-19%belowmaintenanceintakes(Mertz,1992;Lichtmanetal.,1992;Livingstoneetal.,1990).However,theextentofunderestimationvariesamongsubjects.Lichtmanetal.(1992)reportedthatagroupofobesesubjectsunderreportedtheirenergyintakeby47±16%.Robisonetal.(1992and1980)notedthatthe
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estimatedfoodintakewasabout20%greaterforwomenthanmen.Otherinvestigatorshavenotedthatmoreaccuratedietaryinformationwasobtainedfromwomenthanmen(Rideretal.,1984;Yuhasetal.,1989).Thatmightreflectgreaterattentiontofoodbywomen.IntheMarshallIslands,foodpreparationdependsontheoccasion,butmaturinggirlsandyoungwomendomostoftheregularcooking.Generally,peoplerememberfoodsconsumedasmajorcomponentsofmealsmoreaccuratelythanfoodsandbeveragesconsumedas"accessory"foods(GregerandEtnyre,1978;Mullenetal.,1984).FoodeventsarehighlyvariableintheMarshallIslands,andagreatdealisconsumedadhocaspeoplemovearoundthevillageacceptinginvitationstoeatatrelatives'housesorastheyworkinthebush.Moreover,itisrudetoeatelsewhereandnotbringfoodhometoshare.Therefore,wheninterviewswereconductedinhouseholdsettings,theintakeof"snack"foodsandbeveragesmightwellhavebeenunderestimated.Itisparticularlydifficultforsubjectstoreportpastbehaviorsaccurately(Bradburnetal.,1987;Dwyeretal.,1987);themostrecentfamineexperienceswereslightlymorethanayearbeforethetimeofthesurvey,andthelowerfoodintakesandincreasedvariabilityinthe"famine"statisticsmightbeexplainedinpartbythetimelapse.
Theremightbeatleastthreeothersourcesoferrorinextrapolationfromthe1978surveyoftheUjelangdiettothe1990sRongelapdiet.First,thedietobservationsweremade
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whentheUjelangcouncilmemberswereabsentfromtheisland.Iftheirdietdifferedfromthenoncouncilpopulationandifthecouncilmembersshouldbeconsideredpartofthetargetpopulation,thenthesamplingwasbiased.Second,extrapolatingfromUjelangtoRongelapassumessimilarecologicalsituationsanddietaryhabits.Third,theuseofa1978dietsurveytoestimatefoodconsumptioninthe1990sassumesthatdietarypracticeshavenotchangedsubstantially.Thepresenceandpracticalconsequencesofthesepotentialsourcesoferrorareunknown.
TheUjelangdietmodelrepresentsthebestdataonwhichtobaseestimatesofaRongelapdiet.Althoughithasseverallimitations,itisasgoodasmanymajordietstudiesintheUnitedStates(HumanNutritionInformationServices,1988;PublicHealthService,1979;ScienceandEducationAdministration,1980).Evenwithitsdrawbacks,itwasthelogicalandappropriatechoiceforRobisonetal.(1992)tousetoestimateexposuretoisotopesiningestedfoodandbeverages.However,theprovisionalcharacterofthisdietmodelnecessitatesarecognitionthatabsoluteanswersontheaverageintakeandonmeasuresofvariabilityareunlikely.Thus,thecommitteefeelsthatanadditionalwaytousetheUjelangdietmodelisinpreparationofscenariosthatallowforvariationsinenergyintake,foodselection(e.g.,importsvs.localfoodsandsuchactivitiesascoconut-gathering),andeffectsofpotentialremediationactivities(suchasapplicationofKClfertilizertosoil).Table3-1givesseveralpotentialscenarios;morecouldbedevisedtoreflecttheconcernsandlifestyleofthemembersoftheRongelapcommunity.
BNLDietModelfortheNorthernMarshallIslands
ThisdietmodelthathasbeenappliedtopeopleofthenorthernMarshallIslands,wasdevelopedbyNaiduetal.(1980)ofBNLbasedonintermittentobservationsbyasurveyteamandqualitativedata
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collectedinaformalsurvey.Thesurveyteamlivedinlocalcommunitiesforbriefperiodsandreportedthefood-preparationtechniquesandfoodpatternsoftheislanders.Systematicrecordsoffoodintakewerenotmadebythesurveyteam.Thus,theirreportwiththoseofMuraietal.(1958),Pollock(1970),Carucci(1980),andMaifeld(1982)andthehistoricalaccountsmentionedearliercontributetoacomprehensivesetofqualitativedescriptionsofthedietaryhabitsoftheresidentsoftheMarshallIslands.However,thequalitativedatacollectedbytheBNLteamarenotusefulformakingquantitativeestimatesofintakeofspecificnutrientsorevenfoods.
ThefollowingpointsareimportantfortheinterpretationanduseoftheBNLdata:
LiketheUjelangsurveydata,theBNLstudyisdated(datawerecollectedbefore1980).FoodhabitshavechangeddramaticallythroughoutthePacificasresidentshavebecomemoreintegratedintotheworldeconomy(BindonandBaker,1985;Pelletier,1987;McGarvey,1991;Tayloretal.,1991).Localpeopleareprobablysubstantiallylessdependentonindigenousfoods,particularlyfoodsthatrequireextensivepreparation,thantheywereatthetimeofthissurvey.
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Table3-1.PotentialDietaryScenariosConsideringVariationsinEnergyIntake,FoodChoices,andRemediationwithKCl
Ujelanglocal&importeddieta
Ujelanglocal-onlydieta
Local-onlydietb
Coconut-collector'sdietc
Local-onlyfromnorthernisletsd
Local-onlywithKClappliede
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F)
Energyintake
kcal/d 3,208 1,392 3,208 2,018 3,208 3,208
137Csintakef
Bq/d 31 78 180 152 291-1084
32
Foodintake(g/d)
Total 3,490 1,541 3,270 2,517 3,270 3,270
Fish 42 90 208 180 208 208
Seafood 27 118 272 118 272 272
Meat 26 50 116 50 116 116
Eggs 18 149 59g 59g 59g 59g
Pandanus 9 32 75 32 75 75
Breadfruit 27 93 215 93 215 215
Coconut 202 415 957 1,690 957 957
Marshcake
12
Fruits 7 14 32 14 32 32
Squash 1 3 6 3 6 6
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Arrowroot 4 47 109 47 109 109
Beverages 947 530 1,222 230 1,222 1,222
Importedfoods
2,168
aRobisonetal.,1992;1993,Tables5and6.
bLocaldietadjustedtoprovidethesameenergyasUjelanglocalandimporteddiet(ColumnBx2.305).
cEnergyintakeofUjelanglocaldietincreasedbychangingintakeoffish(two-fold),coconutjuice(five-fold),drinkingcoconutmeat(five-fold),sproutedcoconut(five-fold),consumptionofturtleeggs(-90g),andbeverages(-300g)tomakedietquantitieslogical.
dLocaldietinColumnCbutwithpandanus,coconut,andarrowrootcollectedinnorthernisletsofRongelapandRongerikAtolls.Kohn(1989)estimatedwhole-bodydoses2-9timesgreaterthanonRongelapIsland.
eLocaldietinColumnCwithassumed90%lossofcesium-137incoconutbreadfruitandpandanusbecauseofKClfertilization(Robisonetal.,1993).
fCesium-137intakeadjustedto1995concentration.
gEstimateofturtle-eggconsumptioninlatestUjelangdiet(ColumnB)isunrealistic;eggintakereducedto9g/d.
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TheBNLstudyshowsnoevidenceofasamplingplan.Thenumberofsubjectsinterviewedandthedemographicsituationofeachsubjectwerenotdefinedinthemajorreportofdata.
Thesurveyteamdidnotseemtoappreciatetheprinciplesforestimatingaveragediets.Theysuggestedthatitwouldbeimpossibleforanoutsideobservertochoosea"typicalfamily"tomonitorfordietaryobservation,althoughthe"typicalmaximum"or"typicalminimum"dietwouldstandout(Naiduetal.,1980).Onceasamplepopulationwasdefined,normativevaluescouldbeeasilyderived.Withoutademographicprofile,itisimpossibletodefinethe"meaning''oftheBNLdataortosubdividethedataandderiveseparateprofileswithsensitivitytosex,age,residence,day-to-dayoccupation,andseasonalorweeklyvariations.
Thesurveyinstrumentwaspoorlydesignedtoelicitquantitativeinformation.Forinstance,Question28asked"Howmanypumpkinsdoyoucookforyourfamilyduringatypicalyear?"andQuestion37asked"Howmanytimesdoyoumakeamealofpigduringthetypicalmonthoryear?"(Naiduetal.,1980).Suchquestionsdidnotelicitquantitativeinformation,e.g.,onthesizesofpumpkinsorpigsoronthesizesoftypicalservingsformalesandfemalesoradultsandchildren.Thequestionsalsomadeunrealisticdemandsonthesubjects'memories;estimatingconsumptionofanitemforatypicalmonthoryearisverydifficult(Dwyeretal.,1987),especiallywhenvariationsofresidence,activity,andseasonarelikely.Theinterviewershadnosystematicmechanismtoallowrespondentstostandardizequantities.Moreover,adultsmadetheestimatesofconsumptionforchildrenalikelysourceofreducedvariabilityinsampling.
TheamountoffoodpreparedwasmeasuredintheBNLstudy,notfoodintake.Itisdifficulttoestimatethepercentageofpreparedfoodactuallyconsumedbyhumans.Refrigerationatthetimeofthesurvey
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wasavailableonlyinurbanareas.Theleftoverswereprobablyfedtopigs,chickens,anddogs.Noestimatesofwasteshavebeenmade,soconversionofpreparedfoodtoconsumedfoodisveryquestionable.Cyclesoffeastandfaminehaveimmediateeffectsonwasteandfoodconservation.Thedifferenceinsamplinge.g.,assessmentofpreparedfoodversusconsumedfoodaccountsforalowerestimateofcoconutintakeandhenceofingestedisotopesintheUjelangdietmodelthanintheBNLdietmodel.ItisalsologicalthattheUjelangdietdata(basedonfoodconsumption)correlatemorecloselywithmeasuredisotopebodyburdenthanBNLdata(basedonfoodpreparationwithnocorrectionforwaste).
ThemostusefulinformationfromtheBNLsurveyisderivedfromthediscussionofseasonalvariabilityoffoodintake.Unfortunately,thesurveyprovidesnoinformationondifferencesinfoodintakebasedonage,sex,residencehistory,occupationalpursuit,weekdayversusweekend,ordinarydayversusfeast,etc.
ThedelineationofdietpatternsonthebasisofthreehypotheticalcommunitytypesprovidedbytheNaiduetal.studyispotentiallyuseful,butthebasisoftheclassificationandtheactualcommunitiesthatweresurveyedwerenevermadeapparent(Naiduetal.,1980).The
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creationofhypotheticalCommunitiesA,B,andCbytheauthorsinanattempttobeobjectiveultimatelycompromisedthescientificutilityoftheresearch,inthatthemaintenanceofcommunityandrespondentanonymitymeansthatthedatacouldnotbereanalyzed.AlthoughthecontrastbetweenCommunityAandCommunityCrepresentsthelogicalextremesintheMarshallIslands,CommunityBisanomalous.Itwasnotdescribedadequatelytomakethedatauseful.Generally,adensepopulationissubjecttoheavyfishingpressureandreducedfishingsuccess.Nonetheless,CommunityBisdefinedas"overpopulated"withlowavailabilityoflocalfoodandyetwith"excellentfishing";about33%ofitsdietcomesfromfish.Itisextremelyunlikelythatresidentsofthe''overpopulated"areasoftheMarshallIslands(Uliga,Majuro;andEbeye,Kwajalein)haveaccesstoenoughfishtomakeup33%oftheirdiet.Tomakethedatausable,termslike"overpopulation"needtobequantified,thecommunitiesneedtobeidentified,andforpurposesofRongelapresettlementthelivingcircumstancesintheresearchcommunitiesneedtobecomparedwiththeexpectedsituationonRongelapAtoll.
TheBNLsurveydatahaveotherseriousanomaliesthatareunexplainablewithoutfurtherinformation.Forexample,areasonablehypothesis(onthebasisofinformationfromotherdietsurveys)wouldbethatconsumptionofcoconutingeneralandcoconutcreaminparticularwoulddeclineasacommunitybecamemoreurban.Indeed,inCommunityA(withalowpopulationdensity),about10,000gofgratedcoconutforcream(milk)perpersonwasproducedperpersoneachyear;andinCommunityB(highdensitybutfishplentiful),gratedcoconutproductionusedforcreamdroppedto2,500g/yareasonableexpectation.InCommunityC,however,withhighpopulationdensityandlowavailabilityoflocalproduce,gratedcoconutforcreamproductionwasestimatedtobe45,000g/y.Thisishighlyunlikely:coconutsarevirtuallyunavailableineitherEbeyeor
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Uliga,andwhenavailabletheyareexpensive.SuchanomaliesdecreaseconfidenceintheBNLdietsurvey.
ThedietarydatageneratedbytheBNLdietsurveyarenotquantitativeandthereforeareofonlysupplementaryvalueinestimatingdietaryintakeoftheMarshallese.
ExtrapolationsfromDietModels
ThelackofacomprehensiveDOEresearchplantorelatetheBNLandLLNLresearchendeavorsformallyhasproducedmixedresults.TheUjelangdietmodelandtheLLNLenvironmentalinformationcanbecombinedtoyieldwhole-bodyburdensofcesium-137thataregenerallyconsistentwiththeBNLmeasuredvalues.However,somefeaturesofthedietmodelareclearlyunrealistic.Therearemanydietarycomponentsinthemodel,andsingleconfirmationsolelybyBNLmeasuredvaluescannotbetakenasconfirmationthatthedetailsofthedietarymodelarecorrect.Inparticular,thereislittleevidencethattherelativeimportanceofsomelocalfoodsinthedietisbeingaccuratelyassessed.
Dietinformationnowbeingobtainedmighthelptoreducetheuncertainties,buthistoricallyBNL'srelianceonLLNLdietinformationfromtheUjelangdietsurveytocalculatepotentialplutoniumintakethroughfoodhasbeenariskystrategy(Sunetal.1992b,1993).Potentialsforsoilcontaminationduringoutdoorfoodpreparationwererecognizedasearlyas1985(Lessardetal.,1985,asquotedinSunetal.,1992a),butLLNLmeasurementswere
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basedoncollectedfoods,ratherthanpreparedfoods.Indeed,radioactiveassessmentsoffoodspreparedunderlocalconditionsarelacking.Althoughimprovementsintheurine-collectionprotocolappeartohaveansweredquestionsaboutincreasedplutoniuminBNL'surine-bioassaymeasurements,absoluteassurancesaboutplutoniumintakefromfood(Conard1992:53)cannotbeanswered,givenourcurrentlackofknowledgeaboutMarshallesefood-preparationtechniques.
Theunanswereddietaryquestionsincludethese:HowaccuratelydoestheUjelangdietsurveypredictthepatternoffoodconsumptiononRongelap?HowhavenorthernMarshallIslandsconsumptionpatternssystematicallychangedsince1978?Howhaveouter-islandfood-preparationtechniquesalteredtheingestionofcesiumandplutonium?Robisonetal.(1992)recognizetheexistenceofproblemsinknowledgeoftheUjelangdiet.TheCommitteehopesthatafewoftheseproblemswillbesolvedthroughamoresystematicassessmentofMarshallIslandsdiets.
Recommendations
WerecommendthatacomprehensiveresearchplanbedevelopedtointegratetheBNLandLLNLresearchendeavors.Historically,thedietaryanddosimetricdatahavenotreachedtheiroptimaluse,becausewell-definedresearchobjectivesandprogramreviewhavebeenlacking.Acomprehensiveresearchplancouldhavebroughttheindividuallaboratoryeffortstogethertowardacommongoalwithgreatereffectthanthatachievedseparately.Thelaboratoriesshouldmakeampleuseofexpertsinnutrition,diet,dosimetryandintheculturalcharacteristicsofthelocalpeopleindevelopingtheircomprehensiveresearchplan.
Thefollowingsuggestionsmighthelpintheinterpretationofthetotal
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datasetbutwillnotaltertheCommittee'sbasicconclusions.
Individualdietarydifferencesarenotwelldescribedinthecurrentdietmodels.Individualsdifferinbothtotalamountoffoodconsumedandchoiceofitemsinthediet.ThecesiumintakeofeachpersonintheUjelangsurveyshouldbecalculatedindividuallyfromfoodintakeandreportedintermsofgramsperdayandpicocuriesperday.ThisisunderwayatLLNL.Separatevalues(meansplusorminusstandardderivation)forfoodandisotopeintakesforeachageandsexgroupsshouldalsobecalculated.
Measurementoffoodpreparedandfoodleftattheendofmealsbeforeanimalsarefedwouldyieldinformationonwaste.Ifsuchmeasurementsweremadein10householdsunderavarietyofcircumstancese.g.,feastversuseverydayandweekendversusweekdayitwouldbepossibletoestimatewasteandapplythiscorrectionfactortotheBNLdietmodel.Theseestimatescouldnotbestatisticallyvalidated,buttheywouldprovideawaytoestablishclosercorrelationsbetweentheBNLdietmodelandtheUjelangdietmodel.ConsideringtheotherlimitationsoftheBNLdietmodel,however,suchcorrectionsmaynotbeconsideredworththeeffort.
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ItisnotrealistictoexpecttheMarshallesetoreturntoatotallyindigenousdiet.Activeadultsneedmorethan1,392kcal/d(1,541g/d)theestimatedaverageenergyintakeofadultssubsistingonatotallyindigenousdietonUjelangbutareunlikelytoconsume6,000g/d,theapproximateamountconsumedbypeoplewiththehighestconsumptionintheUjelangsurvey(Robisonetal.,1993:37).Therefore,estimatingdietaryintakesfora100%indigenousfooddietisprobablynotuseful.Thebestwaytoestimatemaximumintakeofindigenousfoodisdebatable,butitmightbepossibletosurveyfoodintakeonUjaeorLaeAtoll.ResidentsoftheseouteratollsinthecentralwesternMarshallIslandsusemoreindigenousfoodsthanthoseofRongelapAtollbecausetheirfinancialresourcesaresmaller.
ThestudybyCalf(J.Calf,personalcommunication,1993)willupdateinformationondietaryintakeoftheMarshallesefrombefore1980to1993.Itshouldprovideimportantinformationoninfantfeedingpracticesandmighthelptoidentifyfoodintakesofchildren,youngsinglemalesandfemales,nursingwomen,adultmales,nonnursingfemales,andtheelderly.Suchdatawillyieldestimatesofvarianceinfoodintakeforeachgroup.Moreimportant,thissurveywasdesignedtoproviderealisticestimatesofenergyintakesforsubjectsofdifferentagesandshouldaccomplishthatgoal.However,thesurveyconductedbyCalfconsistingof1-ddietrecallsofallresidentsonMejattoduringMay1993willnotprovidedataonseasonalvariation.AstudybeingconductedbyBurtonandNerooftheUniversityofCalifornia,Irvine(Burton,personalcommunication,1993),althoughnotquantitative,willbeausefulsourceofsupplementarydataonshiftsinfoodintakeduetoseasonalvariations,feasts,andspecialactivities,suchasintensivefood-gatheringorcopraproduction.Thisinformationwillbehelpfulinformulatingpotentialdietscenariosinvolvingindigenousfoodsandpeoplewithvariedactivities.
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AnaccountingofallshippingrecordsforimportedfoodsarrivinginMejattowouldprovideacross-checkofdatacollectedintheUjelangandCalfdietsurveysandprovideanothermeansofassessingtherelativeusesofimportedfoods.Thisaccountingshouldincludeallgovernmentsubsidies(U.S.DepartmentofAgriculture:schoollunchandsupplementalfoodsuppliesthatarepartofnuclear-relatedcompensations)andallpurchasedfoods.Somesortoffood-supplementprogramoragriculturalprogramwillbeessentialifenergyintakesaretobemaintainedafterresettlementofRongelap.
Dataontheradiationcontentofselectedpreparedindigenousfoodswouldaidintheinterpretationofcurrentdataontheradiationcontentofrawfoodproducts.TheresultwouldreassurenorthernMarshallIslandsresidentsaboutoneofthepossibleingestionpathwaysofplutoniumandstrengthenthecaseformultipleusesoftheUjelangdietmodel.
IfresidentsofRongelapagreeonareasonablegoalforindigenous-foodintake,theUjelangdietmodelwillbesufficientforscenario-basedcalculationsofdose.
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4.MeasurementsonHumansThemeasurementofthekind,quantity,location,andretentionofradionuclidesinthebody(oftencalledbioassay)isaccomplishedeitherbydirectmeansorbyindirectmeans.Withdirect,orinvivo,bioassay,aradiationdetector(orsystemofdetectors)outsidethebodyisusedasawhole-bodyorpartial-bodycountertoidentifyandestimatethebodyburdenororganburdensofradionuclides.Thismethodcanbeusedforradionuclidesthatemitradiationthatissufficientlypenetratingtobedetectedoutsidethebody,suchaspenetratinggammaraysassociatedwithcesium-137,potassium-40andcobalt-60.Indirect,orinvitro,methodsinvolvethecollectionandanalysisofsamplesthatareexcreted,secreted,orremovedfromthebody(suchasurine,feces,breath,hair,andperspiration)andinferthebodyburdenororganburdensthroughuseofametabolicmodel.Invitromethods,commonlyurinalysis,mustbeusedforradionuclideswhoseemissionscannotbereadilydetectedoutsidethebody,suchasplutoniumandstrontium.
BioassaymeasurementshavebothhistoricalandprospectiverelevancetotheMarshallIslandssituation.Historicalmeasurementsprovideinformationontheuptakeofradionuclidesfrompasthabitationontheislands,providedataonthemetabolicbehavioroftherelevantradionuclidesinthesepopulations,andprovideabasisfortestingmodelsthatareusedtoestimateintakeandradionuclideburdensfromenvironmentaldata.Acontemporarybioassayprogramwouldestablishpre-resettlementbaselinesonthepeopleexpectingtoreturntoRongelap.AbioassayprogramfortheRongelappeopleafterresettlementwillprovideameansfortrackingdosefromfutureradionuclideintake.
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BioassaymeasurementsonRongelapresidentshavebeenperformedbyBNLpersonnelaspartofamedicalexaminationprogramafterthenuclear-testseriesinthePacific(Lessardetal.,1984;Miltenbergeretal.,1980;Sunetal.,1992b).Whole-bodycounting,withemphasisoncesium-137,hasbeenconductedsince1958.FromthestudiesconductedbyBNLduringtheRongelapresettlementfrom1957to1985thewhole-bodymeasurementswereinstrumentalinprovidinginformationonthebuild-upofradionuclideburdens.Forthefirstfewyearsafterresettlementthebody-burdensofcesium-137andstrontium-90increased,reachedanequilibriumwiththeenvironment,andthenbeganagradualdecline.Thebody-burdensofcesium-137werefoundtoreachtheirpeakin1965atabout23%ofthemaximumpermissiblelifetimevaluesforworldpopulations(Conard,1992).Intheearly1980s,BNLbeganinvestigatingurine-bioassaymethodssuitablefordetectingplutonium-239and240intheMarshallese.EarlyattemptsusingaPhotonElectronRejectionAlphaParticleLiquidScintillation(PERALS)techniquewereunsuccessfulowingtohighreadingscontributedfromnaturallyoccurringconcentrationsofpolonium-210.Thesefindingspromptedthedevelopmentofthefissiontrackanalysis(FTA)methodtoobtainbettersensitivitybyremovingthepoloniuminterference.UnfortunatelytheearlyPERALSandFTAresults,whichwerereleasedwithoutadequateQA,mayhavecontributedtothepeopleofRongelapdecidingtoleavetheir
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homelandforMejattoin1985(Sunetal.,1992c).
Whole-bodyCounting
ReviewofActivities
Detailedinformationonthewhole-bodycounting(WBC)system,itsuse,andtheassociatedquality-assurance(QA)programwasgiventoallmembersofthecommitteeinanotebookentitledOperatingandQAProceduresDocumentsfortheRadiologicalDoseAssessmentProject.Inaddition,thecurrentMarshallIslandRadiologicalSafetyProgramatBNLwasreviewedbyseveralmembersofthiscommitteeduringasitevisitonMay28,1992.ThatvisitprovidedtheopportunitytoreviewmuchofthismaterialandtoseeanoperatingWBCsystemsimilartothetwocurrentlyusedontheship,OffshoreVenture,duringsamplingtripstotheMarshallIslands.
ThecommitteewasalsoprovidedcopiesofareportdatedApril23,1990,preparedbyanindependentBNLscientificreviewcommittee.ThereportwasattachedtoaletterdatedMay2,1990,fromRoscoeL.Hall,chairmanofthereviewcommittee,toWalterKato,chairmanoftheBNLDepartmentofNuclearEnergy.Thereviewcommitteereportedthat"thewhole-bodycountingproceduresusedforestimatingtotalbodyburdensofcesium-137,potassium-40andcobalt-60werewithinacceptableguidelinesoftechnicalexcellenceandconformedtorecognizedstandardssetformakingaccuratemeasurementsoftheseradionuclidesinvivo."
RecentbioassaymissionstotheMarshallIslandswereconductedduringJuly1989,February1991,andJune1992.Thegeneralapproachduringthosemissionswastomeasurebaselinecesium-137bodyburdensinpopulationsfromEnewetok,Rongelap,andUtirikAtolls.Table4-1showsthenumbersofpersons(volunteers)thatwerecountedwhowereresidents,orformerresidents,ofthoselocations
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duringthe1989and1991missionsandthepopulationaveragedoseratesfromingestedcesium-137basedonthosemeasurements;theuncertaintiesindosesshownas1standarddeviation(L.C.Sun,Personalcommunication,1994)Eachpersonwascountedfor15min.Becausetwodifferentchair-orientedcountingsystemswereused,partoftheQAprograminvolvedrecountsofsomepersonsinthesamechairandcross-countsofsomepersonsinbothchairs.Therewasnostatisticallysignificantdifferencebetweenoriginalcountsandrecountsatthe97%confidencelevelorbetweenoriginalcountsandcross-countsatthe99%confidencelevel;hence,theprecisionobtainedinthesemeasurementswasjudgedtobehigh.
OnthebasisofinformationprovidedonthecountingandstandardizingproceduresandontheQAprogram,thecommitteebelievesthattheprogramistechnicallysoundandcapableofproducingconsistent,reproducible,andhigh-qualityWBCmeasurementsofMarshallIslandresidents.Twoaspectsofdose-assessmentstrategythatwillneedtobeaddressedarewhoshouldbecountedandhowoftencountsshouldbemade.TheMOUfortheRongelapResettlementProjectbearsdirectlyonthoseaspects.Aprimaryconditionfordeterminationtoinitiateresettlementis(ArticleII,Section2)"thatthecalculatedmaximumwhole-bodyradiationdoseequivalenttothemaximallyexposedresidentshallnotexceed100millirem(mrem)/yearabovenaturalbackground,baseduponalocalfoodonlydiet."Also,theMOU
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Table4-1.NumbersofPersonsResidentsandFormerResidentsofSeveralLocationsWhoVolunteeredforWhole-BodyCountingandthePopulationAveragesofCesium-137AnnualDoseRatesDetermineda
NumberPersonsCounted
Cesium-137PopulationAverageAnnualDoseRateb
1989 1991 1989 1991
Enewetok 216 311 11±3(1.1±0.3) 22±4(2.2±0.4)
Rongelap(Mejatto)
258 427 3±2(0.3±0.2) 2±2(0.2±0.2)
Utirik 414 272 39±2(3.9±0.2) 35±3(3.5±0.3)
Others 28 41
Totals 916 1,051
aDatapresentedinanunpublishedBrookhavenNationalLaboratoryinternalreport(Sunetal.,1992c);basedonmeasuredWBCdistributionmediansfromcesium-137.
bDoseratesexpressedinunitsofmSv/y(mrem/y);uncertaintiesare1standarddeviation.
states(ArticleII,Section11)that''theparties...recognizetheneedforcontinualradiologicalmonitoringbothofreturnedcitizensandoftheRongelapAtollenvironmentuponresettlement."Aswillbeseenlater,cesium-137willcontinuetobethemajorcontributortodose;thereforeWBCshouldbetheprimarymeansofprovidingcontinuedradiologicalmonitoring.
TheemphasisoftheBNLprogramhasbeenonpopulation-relatedvalues.However,withtheemphasisgiventhemaximallyexposed
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residentintheMOU,changesinthefuturedirectionoftheWBCprogrammightberequired.ItappearsthattheBNLprogram,hassofaremphasizedhowmanypeopletocount,ratherthanwhomtocountandhowoftentocountthem.Therehasbeennoplantofollowadefinedgroupofindividualswithprescribedcharacteristicsofagedistribution,lifestyle,ordiet;instead,onlyvolunteershavebeencounted.Becausethemakeupofthevolunteergrouphasbeendifferentineachsamplingtrip,itisdifficulttointerpretincreasesordecreasesinaveragecesium-137bodyburdensmeasuredinthesampledpopulationfromonesamplingtriptoanotherandit'sparticularlydifficulttoobtainandmaintainindividualrecordsthatwillbeneededtoevaluatefuturetrends.
TheBNLstaffhasconsideredanefforttolocaterecordsforpersonswhohaveundergonemultiplewhole-bodycounts.Althoughthiseffortmightprovidesomeadditionalinformation,thelongtimebetweencountsisacriticalshortcoming.AllWBCisnowcurrentlydoneontheshipOffshoreVentureandcanbedoneonlywhentheshipisavailableforBNLuse.Otherorganizations,suchasLLNL,usetheship,andseasonalweatherconditionsalsoaffecttheschedule.AccordingtoBNLpersonnel,planscallforonesamplingtripperyearandhalftheplannedsurveydoneeachyear,forinstance,RongelapandUtirikissampledoneyearand
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EnewetokandBikini(Kili)thenextyear.Onthisschedule,theRongelappeoplewillbecountedevery2y;thisisaninappropriateschedulefortryingtofollowpossibleintakesofcesium-137whichhasaneffectivebiologicalhalf-timeofabout100d.
Recommendations
TheCommitteeoffersthefollowingrecommendationsfortheWBCprogram:
Untilexperiencedictatesotherwise,theprogramshouldensurethateverymemberoftheresettledpopulationreceivesawhole-bodycountannually.ThiswillaidinprovidingassurancethattheconditionsoftheMOUarebeingmetbydeterminingactualbodyburdensandtherebyprovidingthedatanecessarytoevaluatethedosetothemaximallyexposedresident.
AdopttheapproachoffollowingadefinedRongelapsubpopulationduringdifferentseasonstoobtainabettertemporaldefinitionofcesium-137uptakeandlossbeforeandafterresettlement.
SummarizethedataonpersonswhohaveparticipatedinthehistoricalWBCprogramoverthelongterm.Thiswillaidinidentifyingacorestudygroupforthefuture.Itwouldalsoprovideinsightintotheinitialrapidincreaseobservedincesium-137bodyburdensinthe"averageadult"from11nCiin1957to730nCiin1958andtheincreasefrom170to280nCiduring1979-1982.
Developthefacilitiesorlogisticalcapabilityforregular,morefrequentcountingofthestudygroup.Therearetwopossibleapproaches.OnewouldbetouseanothershipthatcouldbededicatedmostofthetimetoWBCactivities;thisoptionmightnotbefeasible,becauseofthesubstantialcostsinvolved.AnotherapproachistoestablishfacilitiesatselectedlocationssothatWBCinstrumentationcouldbequicklyinstalled,used,andmovedtothenextlocation;this
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optionseemspossibleonthebasisofexperienceinmaintainingWBCfacilitiesinremoteareas(Hanson,1982;Hansonetal.,1964),althoughsomelogisticalaspectswouldhavetobeaddressed,includingstaffing,electricalpower,water,airconditioning;andcontinuedparticipationofthestudygroup.Centralized,land-basedWBCfacilitiesonthreeatollsintheMarshallIslands(orhowevermanylocationsaredeemednecessaryfortheDOEmission)wouldhaveseveraladvantagesoverthecurrentship-basedpractice:weatherconditionswouldbelessconstraining,moreadultswouldbeavailablewithoutthe24-hconfinementtotheshipnowrequired,samplingcouldincludemorefrequentrecountsofpeople(asrecommendedabove);andgreatermobilityandflexibilityofWBCcapabilitycouldbeintegratedwithdietaryandlifestylephenomenatoprovidemeasurementsatcriticaltimesindicatedbythatinformation.
GivegreaterrepresentationtoadolescentfemalesintheWBCprogram.In1983doseratescalculatedforcesium-137inyoungfemales(59mrem/y)werenearlytwicethosecalculatedforadultmalesandfemales(32mrem/y).Adolescentfemaleshadcesium-137body
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burdensexceedingthoseofbothadultmalesandadultfemalesduringthemeasurementyears1981-1984and1989.
UrinalysisforPlutonium
AccordingtothedosimetryestimatesmadebyRobisonetal.(1993),theprimarycontributorstotheannualeffectiveradiationdoseforpersonsonRongelapIslandwouldbetheexternaldosefromcesium-137inthesoilandtheinternaldosefromcesium-137infood.Together,thosetwosourcesaccountforabout95%oftheannualradiationdose.Theinhalationandingestionofplutonium-239andplutonium-240accountforabout1%ofthecalculatedannualeffectivedose,asdoestheinhalationandingestionofamericium-241.
Althoughplutonium-239andplutonium-240areexpectedtobeminorcontributorstotheannualeffectiveradiationdose,plutoniumisaconcernoftheRongelappeopleandsoilconcentrationlimitsareincludedintheMOU.Alogicalfollow-uptoassurethelimitsarenotexceededistodeterminetheextenttowhichplutonium-239andplutonium-240havebeendepositedinthebodiesofRongelapresidentsafterresettlementandverifythatplutonium-239andplutonium-240areinfactminorcontributorstodose.
Asdiscussedabove,WBCisausefultoolformeasuringinternalburdensofradionuclidesthatemitradiations,x-andg-rays,thatcanescapefromthebodyandbemeasuredbyexternaldetectors.However,WBCisnotusefulformeasuringlow-levelinternaldepositionofalpha-emittingradionuclidessuchasplutonium-239andplutonium-240becauseoftheveryshortrangeoftheemittedalpharadiation(about40mminunit-densitytissue).Therefore,aninvitrobioassaytest,suchasurinalysis,isgenerallyusedtodetectandestimatethemagnitudeofinternaldepositionofplutoniumandotheralpha-emittingradionuclides.Theusefulnessofurinalysisfor
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assessingpossibleuptakesofplutoniumafterresettlementdependsontheexpectedmagnitudeofinternaldeposition,thefractionoftheinternalburdenexcretedperday,thesensitivityoftheanalyticalradiochemicalmethodused,andotherfactors.
UrinaryexcretionofplutoniumbyresettledRongelappersonswillconsistofabaselinelong-termexcretionfromanyresidualsystemicburdensacquiredfrompreviousexposure,abaselinecomponentconsistingofpromptandlong-termexcretionfromthegeneralworldwideenvironmentalcontamination,andthepotentialprompt-excretioncomponent(plus,eventually,thelong-termexcretion)fromanyintakeassociatedwithresettlemet.Pertinentquestionsregardinglongtermfollow-upofapopulationthathaspotentialforingestionofplutoniumthenarethese:Whatistheexpectedbaselineexcretionforthesepeople?Whatnewcontributionislikelytobeexpectedfromlocalsources,andcanitbedetectedinthepresenceofthepreexistingcomponent?Whatexcretioncorrespondstoa"significant"incrementofintake,andcanitbedetectedinthepresenceofthepreexistingcomponent?
SensitivityRequirements
Whenabsorbedfromthegastrointestinaltractafteringestionorfromtherespiratorytractafterinhalation,plutoniumentersthebloodandisdepositedprimarilyintheliverandskeletonwhereitisretainedforbiologicalhalf-livesof20and50y,respectively.Asmallfraction(about1%)oftheamountthatentersthebloodisexcretedintheurineduringthefirstdayafter
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absorption.Laterurinaryexcretionofplutoniumfromthisabsorptiondecreasesrapidlybecauseoftheprolongedretentionofplutoniumintheliverandskeleton,eventuallyapproachingexcretionofabout2x10-5ofthesystemicburdenperday.Knowledgeoftheseratesisimportantwheninterpretingtheanalyticalresultsforplutoniuminurine.
Becauseofworldwidefalloutofplutoniumduetoatmospherictestingofnuclearweapons,itislikelythatresidentsofthenorthernhemispherehavesufficientsystemicburdensofplutoniumtoproducedailyurinaryplutoniumexcretionratesofaround2-4mBq(54-108aCi;aCi=attocurie=10-15Ci)(Boeckeretal.,1991).TheurinaryexcretionofplutoniumbyMarshallIslandsresidentshasbeenmeasuredrecentlywithaverysensitivefission-trackanalyticaltechniquethatisclaimedtodetectplutonium-239concentrationsaslowas2mBq(54aCi)per24-hurinesample(Sunetal.,1992b;Sun,privatecommunication,BNLbriefing,1992).Intheirestimates,Sunetal.assumeanexcretionof1-2mBq(27-54aCi)per24-hurinesamplefromadultsasaresultofglobalweaponsfallout.Ofthe67Rongelapurinesamplesassayedin1989,16wereabove2mBq(54aCi)fora24-hsample;thehighestwas6mBq(162aCi).Valuesofthismagnitudearethebackgroundlevelsagainstwhichtheresultsoffutureurinalysismustbedistinguishedtofollowanypossiblefutureuptakesofplutoniumafterresettlement.
Afterresettlement,exposuresmightoccurasaresultofingestionofplutoniuminfoodorsoilorinhalationofplutoniumresuspendedintoairfromthesoil.Suchexposureswouldbeexpectedtobeprimarilylow-level,chronicexposures.TwoapproachescanbeconsideredforanalysisofplutoniuminRongelapresidentsexposedundertheseconditions:theverysensitivefission-trackprocessnowbeingusedbyBNLstaffandthemuchlesssensitivealphaspectrometricprocesscurrentlyusedtodetectandassesspossibleoccupationalexposuresto
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plutonium.
Considerableday-to-dayfluctuationsoccurinurinaryexcretionofplutoniumandthesefluctuationsinthebackgroundexcretionratescaninterferewiththedetectionofaverysmallincreasesinthelevelinplutoniumduetochronicintakesafterresettlement.Forpurposesofdiscussion,assumethaturinaryexcretionmustincreaseby4mBq(108aCi)forittobedetectedabovetheexistingbackgroundexcretionlevel.Withthelong-termurinaryexcretionfactorof2x10-5ofthesystemicburdenperday,suchanexcretionwouldcorrespondtoasystemicplutoniumburdenofabout0.2Bq(5.4pCi).Withanapproximatedose-conversionfactorof27mSvofannualeffectivedosefrom1Bqofsystemicallydepositedplutonium(0.1mrem/pCi),asystemicburdenof0.2Bq(5.4pCi)wouldresultinanannualeffectivedoseof5mSv(0.5mrem).Thoseconditionssuggestthatthefission-trackanalyticalprocesscouldbeusedforlong-termurinalysistofollowthepossiblesystemicdepositionofplutoniumfromlow-levelchronicexposuresthatwouldcontributeasmallfractiontothetotaldoselikelyfromradionuclidecontamination.
Ifthefission-trackanalyticalmethodisusedforthatpurpose,itisimportanttounderstandpossibleproblemswithitsuse.Itisstillanewmethodwithwhichlittleoperationalexperienceisavailableasdescribedlater.Themethodisextremelysensitive,andfluctuationsintheobserveddailyexcretionratecanbequitelargeforavarietyofreasonsincludingtemporarilylargerexcretionsfromveryrecentintakes.Thesefluctuationscouldbemisleadingininterpretation.
Asanalternateapproach,onemightconsidertheuseofthealpha-spectrometrymethod.
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However,thedetectionsensitivityisabout1/40thatofthefissiontrackmethod,andtheminimumdetectablesystemicburdenwouldbeabout7Bq(189pCi).Suchaninternalburdenofplutoniumwouldresultinanannualeffectivedoseofabout0.2mSv(20mrem),or1/5theannuallimitspecifiedintheMOU.Thismethod,therefore,isinsufficientlysensitiveanddoesnotprovideausefulalternativetothemoresensitivefission-trackanalyticalprocess.
ReviewofActivities
AprogramofurinalysisoftheMarshallese,inadditiontotheWBCprogram,isbeingconductedbyBNL.Inthiscommittee'sreviewofBNLactivities,itobservedproblemsinthemethods,partlybecauseoftheattocurie-levelsensitivitytheyareattemptingtoachieve(Moorthyetal.,1992).Becausetherateofexcretionofsystemicplutoniumissosmall,theprocedureforitsanalysismusthavehighsensitivity.TheBNLprocedure,whichisbasedonfission-trackcounting,consistsofmanystepsandisverytime-consuming.Toavoidcontaminationbyuranium,whose235isotopeproducesfissiontracksthatwouldbeinterpretedasbeingcausedbyplutonium,elaboratereagent-purificationandcontainer-cleaningproceduresarenecessary.Separationandpurificationofplutoniumareaccomplishedbyanionexchange.Becauseofgreatchangesinvolumesandconcentrationsofthesolutions,twoanion-exchangestepsareused,thesecondwithdistilledacidsandcarefullywashedcontainerstoexcludeuranium.Thepurifiedplutoniumfractionsaremountedonquartzslidesthathavebeenexhaustivelywashed,andtheyaresenttoareactorforneutronirradiation,afterwhichthenumberoffissiontracksoneachslideiscarefullydetermined.Theresultsareusedtocalculatetheamountofplutonium-239present.Thesensitivityofthemethodisestimatedtobearound2mBq(54aCi).
Asanticipated,thecomplexnatureoftheplutoniumanalysisresulted
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inthedevelopmentofanextensiveradioanalyticprocedure.DuringthereviewoftheproceduresuppliedtocommitteemembersasaBNLinternalreporttherewereanumberofquestionsraised.ThedocumentedBNLproceduresgiventhecommitteecontainederrorsthatcouldleadtoimproperchemicaloperationsthatcouldinvalidatethefinalresults,anditdidnot,insomesteps,describewhatisactuallydone.Forexample,intwocasestherewasconfusionbetweennitrateandnitriteions,onebeingspecifiedwhentheotherisrequired.Sodiumnitriteisusedtoconvertallplutoniumtothetetravalentstatesothatitwillsorbonananion-exchangecolumn;ifsodiumnitratewereusedinstead,someoftheplutoniumwouldnotbeconvertedandwouldpassthroughtheanion-exchangecolumnunsorbed,leadingtoalowvalueforthefinalplutoniumcontent.Plutoniumisalsosubjecttohydrolysisthatformscolloidalspeciesthattendtosorbontocontainerwalls,buttherearewaystopreventthis,suchaskeepingsolutionpHlowandusingTefloncontainers.Atonepoint,theBNLprocedurecalledfordilutionwithwater,whichcancauselocalizedareasofhighpHthatcanleadtohydrolysis;diluteacidshouldbeusedforthisdilution.Containersaresaidtobeexhaustivelywashedtoremoveuraniumcontamination,buttheyarenotspecifiedasmadeofTeflon.Theneedtoexcludeuraniumisindeedimportant,butequallysoistheneedtoavoidplutoniumlossbysorption.Thesepossiblycontradictoryrequirementsmightrequireacompromise,butatleastthefactorsinfluencingthechoiceofanoptimumcontainershouldbeaddressed.
Theconditionsleadingtoplutoniumretentionbythecontainerarenotlimitedto
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hydrolysis.Evaporatingaplutoniumsolutioneveninconcentratedacidtototaldrynesscancausetheresiduetobecomeoverheatedandbakeontothecontainerbottom;completeredissolutionisthendifficult.Despitethatproblem,theBNLprocedureprovidedinaninternalreportcalledforevaporationtodryness.Anotherquestionthatneedsfurtherverificationiswhetherthehighercontentofplutonium-240infalloutthaninweapons-gradeplutonium,hasbeentakenintoaccountinthecalculations.Althoughtherehavebeeninformalassurancesthatthiscorrectionhasbeenmade,thematterneedsfurtherdocumentation.
TheBNLrecipeforsyntheticurineprovidedtotheCommitteeincludescreatineinsteadofcreatinine,eventhoughthelatteristhenormalcomponentofurine.InconversationswithBNLstaff,itwasindicatedthattheywerecurrentlyusingneither.Theomissionisimportantbecausecreatinine,apotentialcomplexingagent,couldhaveasignificanteffectonthebehaviorofplutonium.WhenthecommitteediscussedtheshortcomingscitedabovewithBNLpersonnel,theystatedthattheywerenotadheringstrictlytotheprocedureprovided,thattheprocedurewasbeingupdated,andthatthecommittee'sconcernswereunwarranted.ThenewprocedurewasunderdevelopmentandwasexpectedtobeimplementedinJune1993.InFebruary1994,thecommitteewasprovidedapreliminarydraftofanupdatedversionofthechemicalprocedures(Kaplan,personalcommunication,1994).The''marked-up"draftproceduressuggestthatmanyofthepointsraisedinthecritiqueoftheoriginalprocedureshavebeenrecognized.Whetherapplicationofthenewproceduresiseminentis,however,unknown.Itisimportantthatthenewproceduresbeproperlyreviewedanddocumentedpriortotheirbeingimplementedintheroutinelaboratorysetting.Theprimaryrecommendationofthecommitteeisthat,inananalyticprocedureascomplexasthatusedintheanalysisoftracequantitiesofplutoniumin
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urine,theremustbecarefuloversight,review,andtestingtoassureoptimumprecisionandaccuracyoftheassay.Effortsshouldalsobeintensifiedtodevelopalternativetechniques,suchasmassspectroscopy,thatmayhavethenecessarysensitivity,butahigherdegreeofaccuracyandprecision.
TheQAprogram,underwhichtheplutoniumanalyseswereconductedbyBNLpersonnelconsistedalmostentirelyoftheuseofin-house-preparedblindsamplesinsyntheticurine.Thisprogramneedsimprovement.Aspartofthisprogram,sampleexchangewasinstitutedwiththeUniversityofUtah(Singh,personalcommunication,1993),butapparentlyonlytwosampleshavebeenrunbybothlaboratoriestodate.Theresultsonthetwosampleswereencouraging:thetwolaboratories'valuesagreedtowithin25%inbothcases,withonelaboratoryreportingahighervalueforonesampleandtheotherahighervaluefortheothersample.Nevertheless,twosamplesconstitutefartoosmallapopulationfromwhichtodrawameaningfulconclusion.Moreexchangesampleswerenotrun,becauseoflackofadequatefundingatthattime,butitwasstatedthatanadditionalfourexchangesamplesareplanned.Resultsoftheseexchanges,iftheyhavetakenplace,havenotbeenavailabletothiscommittee.Inanycase,additionalsampleexchangesarenecessarybeforethevalidityoftheBNLprocedurecanbeproperlyassessed.TheUniversityofUtahisagoodchoiceforthissampleexchange,becauseitsprocedureissubstantiallydifferentfromtheBNLprocedure,specificallyintheuseofafront-endprecipitationwithrhodizonicacidforpreliminaryseparationofplutonium,theuseofhydrochloricacidratherthannitricacidsolutionsintheanion-exchangesteps,andtheuseofpolycarbonateratherthanquartzslidestomountthesamplesforneutron-irradiation.TheclaimedsensitivityoftheUtahprocedureisabout1.5mBq(40aCi).
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ConclusionsandRecommendations
Formeasurementofplutoniuminurine,toensurethatplutoniumremainsanegligiblecontributiontodose,anextremelysensitivemethodwillberequiredtodetectlikelyintakes.Thefission-trackmethodcurrentlybeingused(andapparentlyundergoingfurtherrefinement)appearstohavesufficientsensitivitytoprovidetheneededassurances,butitsaccuracyandprecisionispresentlyunproven.Carefulattentionisneededtoensurethatproblemsinherentinthechemical-separationproceduresandintheurine-collectionprotocolareresolvedandunderstood.Thecommitteefeelsthatanactiveprogramofinterlaboratorycomparisonshouldbeundertakentodocumenttheaccuracyandprecisionofthetechniquesbeingimplementedforroutineplutoniumanalysis.Inaddition,problemsencounteredininterpretingmeasurementsofplutoniuminurineneedtobecarefullydocumentedandunderstoodbeforeanyprogramisinitiatedforroutinemonitoringofplutoniumintake.
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5.DosimetryandItsApplicationAsstatedearlier,radiationdoseattributabletofalloutcontaminationofRongelapAtollresultsfromexternalexposurefromgamma-emittingradionuclidesdistributedthroughtheenvironmentandfrominternalexposureduetotheintakeofradionuclidesthroughinhalation,ingestion,andabsorptionthroughtheskin.Owingtothenaturalprocessesofweatheringandthedecayofmanyelementswithshorthalf-livesonlyfiveoftheradionuclidesoriginallydepositedonRongelapasaconsequenceoftheBRAVOtestarestillpresentinsufficientquantitiestocontributesignificantlytotheestimateddosetoindividualswhomayreturntoliveonRongelap(KercherandRobison,1993).Theseare:cesium-137,strontium-90,plutonium-239,plutonium-240,andamericium-241.Oftheseradionuclides,cesium-137accountsformorethan90%oftheprojectedradiationdose.
Potentialradiationdosesfromexposuretoexternalradiationcanbepredicteddirectlyfrommeasurementsoftheradiationfield.Predictionofradiationdosesfrominternalsourcesismorecomplicated.Whenradioactivematerialistakeninbyinhalationoringestionorispresentedtotheskin,afractionisabsorbedandreachesthebloodstream.Theabsorbedmaterialisthendistributedtovariousorgansandtissues.Theradioactivityiseventuallyremovedfromthefluids,organs,andtissuesbyradioactivedecayandbybiologicalprocesses.Thefractionabsorbed,thedistributionafterabsorption,andtheratesandpathwaysofradionuclidemetabolismaredeterminedbytheelementsandchemicalforms.
Indosescalculatedprospectively,intakeofeachradionuclideisestimatedastheproductofitsconcentrationinair,food,water,or
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othermediumandthequantityofsuchmediumtakenintothebodythroughbreathing,ingestion,orskinabsorption.Theabsorption(uptake),distribution,andretentionofaradionuclideisestimatedfrombiokineticmodelsoftheelementinhumans.Radiationdoseratestovariousorgansandtissuesarethencalculatedfromthecharacteristicsoftheradiationandphysicaldosimetricmodelsofthetransportandabsorptionoftheradiationinthehumanbody.Cumulative(time-integrated)dosescanbecalculatedfromtheexpectedresidencetimeoftheradionuclideinthebody.
Afterasingleintake,thequantitiesofradioactivityinindividualorgans(organburdens)andthewholebody(bodyburden),andhencetheassociatedradiationdoserates,rapidlyreachamaximumandthendecreasebecauseofradioactivedecayandbiologicalelimination.Inthecaseofcontinuous,chronicexposure,organandbodyburdenscontinuetobuildupuntilamaximumisreachedatwhichtheincreaseisbalancedbytheloss.Theburdens(andassociateddoses)thenfollowtheconcentrationsintherelevantenvironmentalmedia.Thetimetoreachthismaximumvarieswiththeradionuclideanditschemicalform.Themaximumoccursearlierforradionuclideswithshorteffectivehalf-lives(asdeterminedbyradioactivedecayandbiologicalretentiontime).Itoccurslaterforradionuclideswithlongeffectivehalf-lives.Forexample,cesium-137hasaneffectivehalf-lifeofabout100dintheadulthuman;underconstant(orslowlydecreasing)continuouschronicintake,themaximumdoseratecan
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beexpectedtooccurwithinabout2years.Incontrast,aportionoftheplutoniuminthehumanbodyhasaneffectivehalf-lifeofaround50y,andundercontinuouschronicintake,thebodyburden(andassociateddoserates)wouldbeexpectedtoincreasethroughoutthelifetimeofaperson.
Forthepurposesofradiationprotection,radiationdoseisexpressedintermsofequivalentdose,which,foragiventypeofradiation,istheproductoftheenergydeposited(absorbeddose)andtheeffectivenessofthetypeofradiation(radiationweightingfactor).Dosesresultingfromnonuniformspatialdistributioninthebody,asoccurswiththeselectivedepositionofradionuclidesinvariousorgansortissues,canbeexpressedintermsofeffectivedose,asummationoforgandosesinamannercalculatedtobebiologicallyequivalenttothedosefromauniformwhole-bodyexposure.Effectivedoseiscalculatedbymultiplyingtheindividualtissueequivalentdosesbyspecifictissueweightingfactorsandsummingtheweightedtissuedoses.
Onceradionuclidesenteraperson'sbody,thepersonis"committed"tothedoseresultingfromtheradioactivedecayoftheradionuclidesforaslongastheyremaininthebody.Forassessingradionuclideintakesbymembersofthepublic,theInternationalCommissiononRadiologicalProtection(ICRP)Report56(ICRP,1989)recommendscalculatingcommitteddosesfromthetimeofintaketoage70.Incontemporaryterminology,thedosecommitmentsfromanintakeareexpressedintermsofthecommittedequivalentdosetoorgansandtissuesandcommittedeffectivedosetothewholebody.Forthepurposesofdoselimitation,thecommitteddose(for50yinadultsandtoage70forchildren)fromtheannualintakeofradionuclidesisconsideredpartofthatyear'sradiationdose(ICRP,1991a).
Intheinternationalsystem(SI)ofunits,equivalentdose,effectivedose,committedequivalentdose,andcommittedeffectivedoseare
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expressedinsieverts(Sv).BeforeadoptionofSIunits,theunitofdoseinthetraditionalsystemwastherem(1rem=0.01Sv).
Reconstructionofpastradiationdosesandpredictionoffuturedosesalsoinvolvesknowledge,orprediction,ofthetime-dependentnatureoftheexposurepattern.Incircumstanceswherenocontinuousindividualrecordofexternalexposureorradionuclideintakeisavailable,theexposurepatternmustbemodeled.Afrequentlyusedapproachtoestimatingexposureistodevelopscenariosfordifferentexposurepatterns,whichinturnmightincludedifferentestimatesofintake.Thescenariosmightbefora"reasonable"exposure,a"maximum"exposure,oranyotherdesiredsituation.Althoughitisdifficulttoverifyanyindividualscenario,reasonableboundaryconditionsforexposurecanbeestablishedifseveralaredeveloped.
DosimetryApproaches
ExternalDose
Thedoseratefromexternalradiationisreadilymeasurable.Instrumentscanidentifythetype,energy,andintensityofradiation.Fromthesemeasurements,theradiationdosestotissuesandorganscanbecalculated.Alternatively,doseratescanbecalculatedfromthemeasuredorprojectedconcentrationsofradionuclidesinairorsoil.Dose-ratecoefficientsforthesequantitiesarecitedinFederalGuidanceReport12(EPA,1993),butage-specific
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coefficientsarenotgiven.
InternalDose
Asnotedearlier,environmentaldata,physiological-anatomicaldata,andelement-specificbiokineticcomputermodelscanbeusedtoestimatebodyburdenandradiationdoseatanytimeafteranintake.Theseelement-specificmodelsareusedtoestimatetissueburdensandassociateddoseratesafteringestionand(whencombinedwitharespiratorytractdosimetrymodel)inhalationofradionuclides.Thebiokineticmodelscanalsobecoupledtointakethroughtheskintoestimateorganburdensanddoserates.
Manymodelshavebeendevelopedtoestimatethemetabolismofelements.ThemostgenerallyapplicablefordosimetryarethosedevelopedbytheICRP.TheICRPbiokineticmodelshaveevolvedfromthesimpleretentionmodelsofICRP-2(ICRP,1959)throughthemorecomplexretentionmodelsinICRP-30(ICRP,1982,1988)andtomodelsthatincludeage-specificabsorptionandorgantransfercoefficients,asexemplifiedinICRP-56(ICRP,1989).
IntakebyInhalationandIngestion
Theintakefrominhaledradionuclidescanbeestimatedfrommeasurementsofbodyburdensorfromprojectionsofradionuclideconcentrationsinair.Measurementsofintakeorprojectionsbasedonradionuclideconcentrationsintheair,water,andsoilareusedasthebasisforcalculatingradiationdosefromingestedradionuclides.Forconvenience,ICRPhaspublishedtheresultsofbiokineticmodels,for"reference"persons,forradionuclideuptakeandretentionbythevarioustissues,factorsrelatingorganburdenstodoseratesinvarioustargettissues,anddosecoefficientsforconvertinginhalationandingestionintakestocommitteddosesinICRP-30(ICRP,1982,1988).Age-specificbiokineticanddosimetricmodelsweredevelopedlater.
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Calculationsforselectedradionuclideswereperformedandinhalationandingestiondosecoefficients(committeddoseperunitintake)forgenericpersonsage3mo,1y,5y,10y,and15yoldandadultswerepublishedinICRP-56(ICRP,1989).Thedosecoefficients,althoughdevelopedforgenericmodels,provideaconsistentsetofcalculationsandarerecommendedforcomparisonpurposes.Estimatesoftheradiationdosetotheuterusandtheembryoorfetusfromintakeofradionuclidesfornewexposuresandforpre-existingconditionshavebeenpublishedasNUREG/CR-5631(Sikovetal.,1992;SikovandHui,1993)
IntakeThroughtheSkin
Intakethroughtheskincanbeeitherthroughtheintactskinorthroughwounds.OfparticularinterestintheMarshallIslandsresettlementisthepotentialforuptakefromcontaminatedsoil.Uptakethroughintactskincanbeestimatedfromskincontamination(expectedtobeafunctionofskinsurfaceareaandskinadherenceofcontaminants)anduptakefractions(EPA,1989).Forchronicexposuretocontaminatedsoil,skincontaminationforanindividualofagepcanbeestimatedfrom
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whereScistotal-bodyskincontaminationinBq,CsisconcentrationinsoilinBq/kg,Saisskinadherenceofsoilinkg/m2andApisage-specificskinareainm2.Dailyuptake,Du,intheequilibrium,chronic-exposuresituationcanthenbeestimatedfrom
whereUfisthedailyuptakefractionandScisdefinedinEq.8above.InthecaseofresettlementofRongelap,thesoilcontaminantofinterestisplutonium.Studiesofplutoniumabsorptionthroughtheskinhaveusuallyusedplutoniumasthenitrateinacidsolution.Reporteduptakefractionsthroughtheskininhumansrangefrom0.0002%/h(4.8x10-5/d)forplutoniumnitratein0.4MHNO3(Langham,1964;Khodyreve,1966)to0.01%/h(2.4x10-3/d)forplutoniumin9%HCl(ICRP,1986).
OakleyandThompson(1956),e.g.ascitedinLangham(1964,pp.565-582),reportedthatuptakeofplutoniumnitratefromwoundsinanimalswas3timesthatthroughintactskin.Overallsystemicabsorptionwaslessthan1%oftheamountapplied.Intheenvironmental-contaminationscenario,thequantityofsoilinwoundswouldbesubstantiallylessthanthequantityadheringtotheoverallskin,souptakefromwoundsshouldnotaddsubstantiallytotheuptakefromskincontamination.
Uptakeofplutoniumfromabrasion-typewoundsshouldbenegligible.Plutonium,particularlyplutoniumoxide,istrappedinthetissueexudateandimmobilizedintheeschar.Theplutoniumwillbeeliminatedwhentheeschardetachesanddropsoff(Langham,1964;Langhametal.1962).
AppraisalofCurrentDOEAssessments
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InestimatingdosesandpotentialriskstothepeopleoftheMarshallIslands,metabolicanddosimetricmodelshavebeenusedtocalculatecontributionsfromexternalsourcesandfrominhalationandingestionofradionuclides.LLNLpersonnelhaveusedsomeofthemostcurrentbiokineticmodelswhenestimatingmetabolismanddosimetryforinhaledoringestedradionuclides.Themostrecentre-evaluationofthepotentialdose(Robisonetal.,1993)usesICRP-30(ICRP,1982,1988),ICRP-56(ICRP,1989),and,forsomecases,ICRP-61(ICRP,1991b).Completeanatomicalandbiokineticfactorswerenotexamined,buttwoindicatorsbodyweightandthebiologicalhalf-lifeofcesium-137donotsuggestanyseriousproblemswithapplicationoftheICRPmodelsforexternalandinternaldosimetryfortheMarshallIslandspopulation.
Bodyweight.Robisonetal.(1993)providedataontheweightsofmalesandfemalesfromfouratolls,includingRongelap.Averagevaluesarecomparabletothoseforthereference70-kgmaleand58-kgfemalegiveninICRP-23(ICRP,1975).
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Biologicalhalf-life.Robisonetal.,(1993)quoteBNLdataoncesium-137biologicalhalf-lifeinMarshallese(23malesand21females).Thehalf-lifeformales(median,115d;mean,119d)isnotgreatlydifferentfromthe110dgivenforthelong-livedcomponentinICRP-56(ICRP,1989).Ashorterhalf-lifeisreportedforfemales(83d);thisisconsistentwiththediscussionofcesium-137retentioninfemalesgiveninICRP-56.
Thenuclidesofprimaryimportancehavebeencesium-137,strontium-90,plutonium-239,plutonium-240andamericium-241(Robisonetal.,1982,1993;Kohn,1989;RobisonandPhillips,1989).ThosereferencesandotherdocumentsbyLLNLpersonnelhavereportedestimateddosesreceivedbyMarshallIslandspeopleformanyyears.Exceptwhereotherwisenoted,thefollowingdiscussionaddressesthe1993LLNLdoseassessmentforRongelapIsland(Robisonetal.,1993).
ExternalDose
Estimatesofexternaldoseratehavebeenconsistentwhenrepeatedmeasurementshavebeenmade(Kohn,1989,Table5.1).Gamma-rayexposureratesasafunctionoflocationwereestimatedfromanaerialsurveymadein1978andfromindoorandoutdoorgammaspectroscopyconductedin1988.Themajorcurrentcontributorstoexternalgammadosewereidentifiedascesium-137(morethan99%)andcobalt-60andcorrespondingradioactive-decaycorrectionswereapplied.Theannualdoseequivalenttothetypicalresidentoftheislandwasestimatedwithascenarioinvolvingoccupancy-timeweightingfactorsforfourindoorandoutdoorlocationsofdifferentradiationlevels.Aconversionfactorof0.0075sievert/roentgen(Sv/R)wasusedtoconvertmeasuredexposureinairtodoseequivalenttothetestes.Dosesweredecay-correctedfortheprojectedresettlementdateof1995,andannualdosesandaccumulateddoseswerecalculatedfor
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eachofthenext70y.Themaximumexternalgamma-raydoseratewasprojectedtobe0.11mSv/y(11mrem/y)in1995;thiswilldecreaseascesium-137continuestodecayandtomigrateintheenvironment.
Thesourceofdataisappropriate,andtheaerial-surveyandground-basedresultsareconsistentwitheachotherwhendecay-correctedtoacommondate.TheoccupancyscenarioforRongelapIslandappearsreasonable;however,becauseofthedifferentdoseratesontheisland,thedosewillbeloweriflesstimeisspentintheisland'sinterior.TheexposureratefromfalloutishigheronmostotherislandsofRongelapAtollthanonRongelapIslanditself(Kohn,1989),soestimatesforexternalgamma-raydoseforthemaximallyexposedresidentshouldincludeconsiderationoftimespentonotherislands.Forthepurposesofprojectingthepost-resettlementdose,itwouldhavebeenmoreappropriateandmoreconsistenttoconvertmeasuredvaluestoeffectivedose,usingfactorssuchaspresentedinICRP-51(ICRP,1987),ratherthandosetothetestes.However,theconversionfactorswouldnotbegreatlydifferentfromthevalueused,andtheresultswouldnotbesignificantlydifferent.Onthebasisofthedatapresented,thedecay-correctedexternalgammadoseof0.11mSv/yfor1995appearsreasonable.Theprojecteddosesforfuturedecadesareprobablyoverestimated,inasmuchasthecorrectionswerebasedonlyonphysicalhalf-lifeoftheradionuclideswithnoconsiderationoftheeffectiveenvironmentalhalf-life.
TheLLNLreportpointsoutthattheexternalbetadosewouldbeashallowdoseonlyand
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thatthebetacontributionwouldaddonlyslightlytothegammashallowdose.Itconcludes,consideringtherelativelylowrisk-basedweightingfactorfortheskin,thatthebetacontributiontothetotaleffectivedosewouldbeextremelysmall.ThisappearstobeaReasonableConclusion.
IntakeandInternalDose
Inhalation
Potentialinhalationexposureduetoresuspensionofradionuclide-bearingsoilwasassessed.AirborneradionuclideconcentrationswereprojectedforRongelapfrommeasuredconcentrationsinRongelapsoilandenhancementfactorsdevelopedintheresuspensionexperimentsconductedonotherMarshallIslandsatolls.Becausetheaverageconcentrationsoftransuranicradionuclidesinsurfacesoilsovertheentireislandwereobservedtoberoughlytwicethoseinthevicinityofthevillageandhousingarea,locationwasanimportantvariableinprojectingairborneconcentrationandinhalationintake.InhalationintakeforthetypicalRongelapresidentwasprojectedwithascenarioinvolvingtimeweightingforfouractivity-locationcombinations.
AverageplutoniumandamericiumconcentrationsreportedforRongelapsurfacesoilandtheprojectedaverageannualintakeoftheseradionuclidesarepresentedinTable5-1forthereferenceyear1995.Concentrationsofcesium-137andstrontium-90inthesoilwerealsomeasuredbuttheseradionuclideswerenotincludedintheinhalationdoseassessment;theproductofthesoilconcentrationandtheinhalationdosefactorsforthevariousradionuclidesindicatesthattherelativedosecontributionsofthesetwowillbeordersofmagnitudelessthanthedosecontributionsfromplutoniumandamericium.
ICRPdosemethodsandmodelswereusedtoconvertinhalation
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intaketodose.Projectedintakesofplutoniumandamericiumwerepresentedasfractionsoftheintakelimitcorrespondingto1mSv/y(numericallyequivalenttothecommittedeffectivedoseinmillisieverts/yearseeTable5-1).
Fromtheinformationprovided,theresuspensionexperimentsappeartobereasonableandaddanimportantdimensiontothedoseassessment.Thealgorithmforcomputingintakeaccountsfortheimportantfactors.Theoccupancyscenarioisdifficulttoevaluate,buttherearenoobviousproblems.Thebreathingratesandthedistributionbetweenrestingandactivearesimilarto,butnotidenticalwith,thevaluesfortheICRPreferenceadultmale.Thecommittedeffectivedosesareontheorderofascaleofmicrosieverts/year;annualdoseswillinitiallybemuchlowerandwillslowlyapproachthisvalue.
Therewerenoage-dependentcalculations.Althoughtheuseofreference-manbreathingpatternsshouldgiveaconservativeestimateofnonadultintaketheICRPinhalationmodelisthesame(ICRP,1989)anage-dependentscalingofbreathingrateswouldhavegivenabetterapproximation.Comparisonofthe70-yeffectivedosescalculatedforchildrenforplutoniumandamericiumwiththoseforadultsinICRP-56suggeststhatthedoseratesforamericiummightgodownbyafactorofabout2,butthoseforplutoniummightgoupbyafactorof3.Uncertaintiesininhalationdepositionanddosebynuclidewerenotcalculated.
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Table5-1Surface-SoilRadioactivity,ProjectedInhalationIntakesandProjectedInhalationDoseofSelectedRadionuclidesa
Plutonium Americium
Soilconcentration Bq/g(pCi/g)Bq/g(pCi/g)
Villagemean 0.063(1.7) 0.046(1.2)
Islandmean 0.13(3.5) 0.097(2.6)
Averageindividualinhalationintake Bq/y
(pCi/y)Bq/y(pCi/y)
0.044(1.2) 0.023(0.62)
Averageindividualcommittedeffectivedose mSv/y
(mrem/y)mSv/y(mrem/y)
0.0027(0.27)
0.0016(0.16)
aAdaptedfromRobisonetal.(1993),projectedto1995.
Ingestion
LocalsourcesofingestedradionuclidesconsideredintheLLNLassessmentincludesoil(incidentalingestion),drinkingwater(fromrainfallandgroundwater),anddiet(marineandterrestrialfoods).Theradionuclidesofpotentialimportance,becauseoftheirpresenceintheenvironmentarecesium-137,strontium-90,plutonium-239,plutonium-240,andamericium-241.Therelativecontributionstoprojectedradionuclideintakefromlocalsourcesaresummarizedin
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Table5-2fortwoLLNLscenarios:A,imported-foods-available,andB,imported-foods-unavailable.
Theassessmentassumedanaveragesoilingestionof100mg/d.Forthemodelsused,soilmakesasmallcontributiontotheintakeofcesium-137andstrontium-90butitisthemajorcontributoroftransuranicsinScenarioAandanimportantcontributorinScenarioB.Thus,adosefromingestionoftransuranicsissensitivetotheassumptionsaboutthequantityofsoilintake.Theassessmentusedtheaverageisland-soilradioactivityvalues,andthedosesare
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Table5-2.LocalSourceContributionstoIntakebyIngestionofVariousRadionuclides
Contributions
Component massintake,g/d 137Cs 90Sr 239,240Pu 241Am
ScenarioA-importedfoodsavailable:
Soil 0.1 0.2% 3.6% 72.3% 81.1%
Watera 977 0.05% 3.6% 1.0% 0.5%
Localfood 375 >99% 92.8% 26.7% 18.4%
Intake,Bq/d 31 0.47 0.018 0.012
ScenarioB-importedfoodsunavailable:
Soil 0.1 0.07% 1.1% 35.0% 54.0%
Waterb 530 0.01% 1.0% 0.4% 0.3%
Localfood 1,011 99.9% 97.9% 64.6% 45.7%
Intake,Bq/d 78 1.5 0.037 0.018
aIncludingrainwater,wellwater,anddrinkingwaterincoffeeorteaandmalolo.
bIncludingrainwaterandwellwater.
higherthanwouldbeestimatedwiththelowervillage-vicinityvalues.
TheLLNLassessmentassumesthatthedrinking-watersourceisrainwater60%ofthetimeandgroundwater40%ofthetime.ThedietmodelforScenarioAuses947gforthetotaldailyintakeofrainwater,wellwater,andwaterusedtobrewcoffeeorteaandB.Thus,thedosefromingestionoftransuranicsissensitivetotheassumptionsaboutthereconstitutedrieddrinks(malolo).ThequantityofwaterspecifiedforScenarioBisonly530gwiththeabsenceofcoffeeorteaand
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malolo.ThesequantitiesarelessthanthedailywaterreguirementsgivenfortheICRP-23referencepersons(ICRP,1975),fluidwatervaluesof1,700g/dayforthemale
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and1,200forthefemale.Thequantityofwaterspecifiedinthesescenariosthereforeseemslow.Forthewater-consumptionquantitiesused,theradionuclideintakesareprobablyoverestimatedgroundwater(withhigherradionuclideconcentrationsthanrainwater)isusedonlyinconditionsofextremedrought,buttheassessmentassumedrelativelyhighgroundwateruseof40%.However,neitherthedailyquantitynorthepercentageofgroundwateriscritical,inthatitappearsthatdrinkingwaterwouldcontributeonlyafewpercent,atmost,oftheprojectedradionuclideintake.
Theremainderofthedietconstitutesthemajorsourceoftheprojectedfission-productintakeandcontributesalargefractionoftheprojectedtransuranicintake.Averageradionuclideconcentrationsforthevariousfooditemsvaryoverarangeof105;consequently,thecompositionofthedietmodeliscriticaltothedoseassessment.Dietmodelswerereviewedinprevioussectionsofthisreport;thissectionaddressesprimarilythedose-estimationmethodanddosesestimatedwiththeLLNLdietmodel.
IntheLLNLassessment,thescenario-basedradionuclideintakeswereconvertedtodoseswiththemethodsandmodelsofICRP-30,-48,-56,and-61(ICRP,1979,1986,1989,1991b).Onespecialconsiderationwastheuseofgastrointestinal-to-bloodtransferfactors(f1values)of10-4forplutoniumingestedinsoilandtheICRPvalueof10-3forplutoniuminothermedia.Intakesoftheseradionuclideswerepresentedasfractionsoftheintakelimitcorrespondingto1mSv/y(ineffect,thecommittedeffectivedoseinmillisieverts/year).IngestionintakesandtheassociatedcommittedeffectivedosesprojectedfortheinitialyeararesummarizedbyradionuclideforthetwoscenariosinTable5-3.
TheLLNLassessmentdidnotmakeage-specificdoseestimates.However,dosesfromingestionofthemajorcontributor,cesium-137,
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arefairlyconstantwithagefrom1ythroughadultlife(see,forexample,ICRP-56,1989).Also,RobisonandPhillips(1989)calculateddosesfromcontinuousintake,beginningatvariousages,ofcesium-137andstrontium-90fromanintakesourcedecayingwitha30-yhalf-life.Thesecalculationsindicatedthat,althoughmaximumdoseratesoccurredwhenintakebeganatanearlierage,4estimatedintegraleffectivedosesforadultsduetointakeofcesium-137andstrontium-90canbeusedasconservativeestimatesforintakebeginningatearlierages.
Insummary,estimatesofradionuclideingestionwerebasedonasubstantialdatabase.Allthecredibleroutesofingestionappeartohavebeenconsidered.Theestimateofthesoil-ingestionroutewouldbeimprovedbystrongerdataonquantitiesofsoilingested,particularlyasafunctionofage.Theestimationofingestionduetowaterisnotclear,particularlyinScenarioB;however,drinkingwaterdoesnotappeartobeamajordosecontributor.Thedietmodelplaysanimportantroleandhasbeendiscussedinanearliersection.TheconversionofintaketodoseusesacceptedICRPmodelsandmethods.Theassessmentwaslimitedtoareferenceadult;however,evidencewasgiventosupportthepositionthatthisprovidesaconservativeassessmentforthebroaderpopulation.Apossibleexception,notthoroughly
4Themaximumdoserateforcesium-137wascalculatedtooccurwhenintakebeginsatage4monthsandtohaveavalueabouttwicethatforintakebeginningasanadult.Forstrontium-90themaximumrateoccurredwhenintakebeganaboutage13;thisvaluewasslightlygreaterthanforintakebeginningasanadult.
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Table5-3.SummaryofAnnualWhole-BodyDosesAttributabletoLocalFalloutProjectedfor1995
Route ScenarioA.ImportedFoodAvailable
ScenarioB.ImportedFoodUnavailable
Radionuclide IntakeBq/y
Dose*mSv/y
%ofTotalDose Intake
Bq/y
Dose*mSv/y
%ofTotalDose
Ingestion
137Cs 11,000. 0.16 56 28,000 0.40 73
90Sr 170. 0.0057 2 550 0.018 3
239,240pu 6.6 0.0033 1 14 0.008 2
241Am 4.4 0.0029 1 6.6 0.0044 1
Subtotal 0.17 60 0.43 79
Inhalation
239,240Pu 0.044 0.0027 1
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Table5-4.CalculatedAverageAnnualWhole-BodyDosetoRongelapResidentsAssociatedwithPotentialDietaryScenariosConsideringVariationsinEnergyIntake,FoodChoices,andRemediationwithKCl(Projectedfor1995)
Ujelanglocal&importeddiet
Ujelanglocalonly
Localonly1
Coconutcollector'sdiet2
Localonlyfromnorthernislets3
LocalonlyKClapplied4
(A) (B) (C) (D) (E) (F)
137Csintake,
kBq\y 11 28 66 56 106-396 12
137CsDose,
mSv/y 0.16 0.40 0.92 0.78 1.50-5.57 0.17
Othersources,5
mSv/y 0.13 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14
Totallocalsourcedose:
mSv/y 0.29 0.54 1.06 0.92 1.64-5.71 0.31
mrem/y 29 54 106 92 164-571 31
*Robisonetal.,1992;1993,Tables5and6.
1Ujelanglocal-food-onlydietadjustedbythecommitteetoprovideenergyequaltotheUjelanglocal-and-imported-fooddiet(ColumnB×2.305)tobringcaloricintaketoasustainablelevel.
2EnergyintakeofUjelanglocaldietincreasedbyincreasingintakeoffish(two-fold),coconutjuice(five-fold),drinkingcoconutmeat(five-fold),sproutedcoconut(five-fold),consumptionofturtleeggsreduced(90g)andof
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waterreduced(300g)tomakedietquantitieslogical.
3LocaldietinColumnCbutwithpandanus,coconut,andarrowrootcollectedinnorthernisletsofRongelapandRongerikAtolls.Kohn(1989)estimatedwholebodydoses2-to9-foldgreaterthanonRongelapIsland.
4LocaldietinColumnCwithanassumed90%lossofcesium-137incoconutbreadfruitandpandanusbecauseofKClfertilization(Robisonetal.,1993).
5Allinternalandexternalsourcesofradiationotherthanthoseduetocesium-137.
componentsofthedietotherthanthosefromcesium-137havebeenheldconstant.Forafirstapproximation,thedoseassociatedwithcesium-137(projectedfor1995)hasbeencalculatedonthebasisoftheestimateddailycesium-137intakeforthevariousdietaryscenarios.
ComparisonoftheresultsofthedietaryscenarioslistedinTable5-4showstheimpactofdietaryassumptions.AlthoughtheaverageannualdosecalculatedincolumnsAandB
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islessthan1mSv(100mrem),theaverageannualdosescalculatedincolumnsCandDarearound1mSv,indicatingthatasizablefractionofthepopulationwillexceedthe100-mremlimitoftheMOUifthesedietscenariosarevalid.InthescenariopresentedincolumnE,theaverageannualdoseexceeds1mSv(100mrem).
TheeffectofmitigationcanbeseenincolumnF;allassumptionsareidenticalwiththoseofcolumnC,butKClisappliedtoreducecesium-137uptakeinfoodplants.Inthiscase,thecalculatedannualdoseissimilartothatcalculatedifthelocal-fooddietissupplementedwithimportedfoods.Obviously,thereisbenefittomitigationwithKCl,andvariousexposurescenarioscanbeusedtoinvestigatepotentialeffectsofotheractionsthatmightbetaken.
Intakethroughskin
TheeffectofskincontaminationwithplutoniumhasnotbeenaddressedinthepublishedLLNLreports.ApplicationofthepreviouslycitedabsorptionfactorsfromtheliteraturewouldprojectsubstantialintakeofplutoniumfromRongelapsoil.SuchprojectionsappliedtoRongelap,however,wouldbeexpectedtoproduceanoverestimate,becausetheplutoniuminthatsoilisofafired-oxideformthatissubstantiallylesssolublethanthenitrateformsusedinmostoftheexperimentsintheliterature.ThisissupportedbythehistoryoflowexcretionofplutoniummeasuredinpersonswhoresidedonRongelap1957to1985.However,becauseoftheuncertaintiesintheprojections,assessmentsshouldbeperformedonthepotentialintakeofplutoniumthroughtheskin.
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6.UncertaintyandVariabilityinDoseProjectionTwoapproachescanbeusedtodefinemaximallyexposedpersonsinriskassessments:theprobabilisticapproachandthescenarioapproach.TheprobabilisticapproachspecifiesfrequencydistributionsforquantitiesthatarerelevanttodoseorriskandthenusesMonteCarlosimulationtoestimatethepopulationdistributionofdoseorrisk.Thisapproachusesstatisticaldistributionstodefineamaximallyexposedperson.IntheRongelapassessment,thedistributionofdosestoindividualsisestimatedfromdistributionsofdiet,biologicalhalf-life,andradionuclideconcentrations.Theaveragedosetothemaximallyexposedpersonisestimatedassomehighpercentile(e.g.,the99thpercentile)oftheindividualdosedistribution.Itisnotpossibletoworkbackfromthedosereceivedbythemaximallyexposedpersonanddeterminethecharacteristicsofthatperson.Theuncertaintyinthedoseisaconsequenceofthevariabilityinradionuclideconcentrationsintheenvironmentanduncertaintiesinthedosimetrymodelsandcoefficients.
LLNLProbabilisticApproach
TheLLNLmodelextendsthestandardprobabilisticapproachbydividingtheuncertaintyinthedoseintothevariabilityamongpersonsandtheuncertaintyinthedosetoaspecificindividual(Robisonetal,1993;BogenandSpear,1987).Thevariabilityamongpersonsdependsonindividualdiet(intakeofradionuclides),thebiologicalhalf-lifeofcesium-137,andthefractionofingestedcesiumstoredinthelong-livedbodycompartmentofdifferentpersons.Theuncertaintyinaperson'sestimateddosedependsonvariabilityinradionuclideconcentrationsintheenvironmentanduncertaintyinthedosemodel
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usedanditscoefficients(Fig.10).
TwosourcesofdatacontributetotheLLNLdoseassessment:characteristicsofpeopleandcharacteristicsoftheenvironment.Thesamplesizeusedtoestimateenvironmentalcharacteristicsismuchlargerthanthesamplesizeavailabletoestimatethecharacteristicsofthepeople(seeTable2-3).Accordingtothecurrentassessmentofsourcesofvariationinthedoseassessment,theinterindividualcomponentsofvariationaremuchlargerthantherandomenvironmentalvariation(Robisonetal,1993).Thelargeamong-individualvarianceandsmallsamplesizesforindividualcharacteristicslimittheusefulnessoftheindividualvariability.Estimatingtheentiredistributionofindividualdosesismathematicallysophisticated,butitdependsonparticularassumptions:
ThenativedietofthepeoplereturningtoRongelaphasexactlythesamemeanandvarianceaswereobservedinthesampleof34peopleonUjelang,andthebiologicalturnovertimeofcesium-137hasexactlythesamemeanandvarianceaswereobservedinthesampleof23Marshallese.Thisassumptioninvolvestwosub-assumptions:
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Figure10.Contributionstotheuncertaintiesinindividualdosesfromvariationsamongindividualsandfrom
uncertaintiesindoseparameters.
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Therearenosystematicdifferencesbetweenthepeopleinthedietorbiological-turnoverstudiesandtheRongelappeople.
Themeansandvariancesobservedinthesamplesareexactlythesameasthetruemeanandvarianceinthepopulation.Samplemeansandvariancesusuallydifferfromthetruepopulationvaluesbecauseofrandomsamplingfromavariablepopulation.Smallsamples,suchasforthedietandbiological-turnoverdata,areusuallyhighlyvariable.TheMonteCarlosimulationignoresthesamplingvariationandusesthesampleestimatesofmeanandvarianceastheparametersofthetruedistribution.
Thevarianceindailycesium-137intakeamongpersonsishighlyinfluencedbytheextremevaluesinthedistributionofdailycesium-137intake.IntheUjelangdietsurvey,thedietsthathavethehighestdailycesium-137intakewerethosewhosedailyintakewaspoorlyestimated.Theprecisionoftheestimateoftotalcesium-137intake,foragivendiet,dependsontheprecisionofthemeasurementsofcesium-137concentrationineachfoodstuff.Thestandarderrorofthetotalcesium-137intake,givensomefixeddiet,canbeexpressedas
whereW,istheintakeofitemi,siisthestandarderrorofcesium-137concentrationinitemi,andStotalisthestandarderrorofthetotalcesium-137intake.Foodstuffsthatarelargecomponentsinthediet(i.e.havelargeW1)havethelargestinfluenceontheprecisionofthetotalcesium-137intake.Ifthecesium-137concentrationinthosefoodstuffsispoorlyestimated,thenthetotalcesium-137intakefromthatdietwillbepoorlyestimated.
Largevaluesofcesium-137intakearepoorlyestimated,buttheaveragecesium-137intakeisrelativelypreciselyestimated,seeforexample,Table6-1.Femalenumber17intheUjelangdietsurveyhas
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thehighestdietaryintakeofcesium-137,buttheapproximatedstandarderrorforherintakeisextremelyhigh,75Bq/day,becausesheconsumesalotofchickenandpapaya.Meanspecificactivitiesforbothpapayaandchickenpartsarepoorlyestimatedbecausethesamplesizesaresmall.Thenextlargestcesium-137intakeisrelativelywellestimated(standarderror=4.2Bq/day,Table6-1)becausethelocalfoodcomponentsofherdietareprimarilycoconutsandbreadfruit.Thestandarderrorofthethirdlargestintakeisrelativelylargebecausethatdietincludesalotofpapayaandpork.Incontrast,thecesium-137intakefromtheaverageimported-foodsavailabledietisrelativelywellestimated(Table6-1).
Dietaryintakeandbiologicalhalf-lifeofcesiumareindependent.Thatwouldnotbetrueifpeoplewithhighdietaryintaketendedtohavehighercesiumbiologicalhalf-lives.Bodyweightiscorrelatedwithhighdietaryintakeandmightbecorrelatedwithbiologicalhalf-lifeinadults(Miltenbergeretal.,1981;Leggett1986).Ifbodyweightispositivelycorrelatedwithbothdietaryintakeandcesiumbiologicalhalf-life,thenintakeandhalf-lifewillbepositivelycorrelated,violatingtheassumptionofindependence.
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Table6-1.Estimateddailyintakesandapproximatestandarderrorsfortheimported-foods-availabledietandthethreewomenintheUjelangdietstudywiththelargestestimatedcesium-137intake
Diet EstimatedCsintake
Approximatestandarderror*
Imported-foods
31Bq/d 2.9Bq/d
OfFemale#17
173Bq/d
74.Bq/d
OfFemale#15
103Bq/d
4.2Bq/d
OfFemale#16
60Bq/d 12.Bq/d
*Thesestandarderrorsareapproximate.TheyarecalculatedfromtheUjelangdietsurveyrawdataanddatainRobisonetal,1993,tables20andB-1.Thecalculationsareunderestimatesofthetruestandarderrorbecausetheyassumerandomsamplingoffoodstuffs,independentestimatesofcesium-137concentrationsinallfoodstuffs,andnosamplingerrorincertainfoodstuffs(e.g.mostseafood).
Lognormaldistributionsareappropriatetodescribethedistributionofbodyweights,dietaryintakes,andbiologicalhalf-livesforcesiumintheRongelappopulation.SpecialconcernshouldbegiventowhethertheuppertailofthelognormaldistributionappropriatelymatchesextremevaluesintheRongelappopulation.TheLLNLdoseassessmentdoestestwhetherthedatafitlognormaldistributions(Robisonetal.,1993).Noneofthetestsrejectsthehypothesisthatthedistributionsarelognormal,butfailingtorejectdoesnotprovethat
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thedistributionsarelognormal,especiallyinthetails.Thetestsofnormalityorlognormalityhavelowpower,especiallywhenthesamplesizesaresmall(Shapiroetal.,1968).Inotherwords,datamightappeartobelognormalevenifthetruedistributionisnotlognormal.InspectionoftheprobabilityplotsgiveninRobisonetal.,(1993)suggeststhatlognormaldistributionsmightnotbeappropriatetorepresenttheextremetailsofthetruedistributions.Ingeneral,thelargestandsmallestdatapointsdeviatethemostfromthepredictedquantilesforlognormaldistributions(e.g.,seeFigs.6,8,10,and11ofRobisonetal.,1993).Tosomeextent,thatisexpectedbecausethevarianceofextremevaluesislargerthanthevarianceofthemedian.Itisnotclearwhethertheextremevaluesaremoredeviantthanwouldbeexpected.
TheissueoftheappropriatedistributiontouseintheMonteCarlosimulationisimportantbecausesomesortofdistributionalassumptionmustbemadetoextrapolatetoextremepercentiles.Thesamplesizesforthedietandbiologicalhalf-lifesamplesaretoosmalltousenonparametricestimatesoftheextremepercentiles.The99percentilecannotbeestimatedunlesstherearemorethan50observations,anditisnotreliablyestimatedunlessthesampleisconsiderablylarger.
Thereisnomeasurementerrorincludedinanyofthevarianceestimates.TheMonte-Carlouncertaintyanalysisusesthebetween-individualvariancesindietaryintake,biologicalturnover,andotherquantitiestocalculatethedistributionofannualdosestoindividuals.TheMonte-Carloanalysisassumesthattheobservedbetween-individualvariancesestimatethetrue
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varianceamongindividuals.Undersomesimplifyingassumptions,theobservedvarianceamongindividuals( )isthesumofthetrueinter-individualvariance( )andthemeasurementvariance( )(Searleetal.,1992).Thatis,
Hence,theobservedvarianceestimatesthetruebetween-individualonlywhenthereisnomeasurementerror.However,thereissomemeasurementerrorassociatedwithalldata.Table6-1showssomeoftheestimatedmeasurementerrorsfordietaryintake.Thereisalsoameasurementvarianceassociatedwithestimatesofbiologicalhalf-life,butwehavenotestimatedit.Ifestimatesofmeasurementerrorareavailable,e.g.fromrepeatedsamplingofindividuals,then canbeestimatedseparatelyfrom .TheeffectsofmeasurementerrorindietarysurveysonthedistributionofusualdietaryintakeandsomeapproachestocorrectforitareexploredbyNusseretal.(1990).
Thoseassumptionshavedifferenteffectsonthedistributionofdosestoindividuals.Accountingforsamplingvariation(thefirstsub-assumption)increasesthevarianceinthedosedistributionandsoincreasestheprobabilityofalargedosetoanindividual.Theeffectofcorrelateddietaryintakeandbiologicalhalf-livesdependsonthesignofthecorrelation.Iftheyarepositivelycorrelated,theprobabilityofextremedosesishigher;iftheyarenegativelycorrelated,theprobabilityislower.Theeffectofmis-specifyingthetailsofsomedistributiondependsonwhetherthetailsofthetruedistributionaremoreorlessextremethanthoseofalognormaldistribution.Iftheyaremoreextreme,theprobabilityofanextremedosewillbehigher.Accountingformeasurementerrordecreasestheamong-individualvariance,whichdecreasestheprobabilityofanextremedosetoanindividual.
Theneteffectoftheassumptionsandsmallsamplesizesdefiningthe
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characteristicsofindividualsisthatthetruedistributionofdosestotheRongelappopulationuponresettlementmightdifferfromthecalculateddistribution(Robisonetal.,1993,Fig.18).Thedifficultystemsfromuncertaintiesincharacterizingthevariabilityamongindividuals.Usingscenariosforestimatingexposureandestimatingthedistributionofdosesforspecificscenariosavoidstheproblemofestimatingthevariabilityamongindividuals.
ScenarioApproach
Inthescenarioapproach,onecaneasilydefinecharacteristicsofamaximallyexposedperson.FortheRongelapassessment,scenarioscanbeusedthatspecifythesex,weight,anddietforanyindividualsituation.Thescenariocouldalsoincludethelifestyle,biologicalhalf-lifeofcesium,andfractionofcesiumgoingtothelong-livedbodycompartment.Ascenarioforthe''criticalgroup''thatdefinesthemaximallyexposedpersonmightspecifythesex,weight,anddietofthatgroup.Alternativescenariosshouldexploretheimpactoffoodconsumption(kilograms/day),effectsofbinges(e.g.,consumingalargenumberofcoconutcrabsinashortperiod),effectsofdifferentlifestyles(e.g.,primarilyharvestingandeatingcoconutsorprimarilyfishing),andtheimpactofKClappliedtothesoilasafertilizer.Theaveragedoseanditsuncertaintyarecomputedforthatcombinationofcharacteristics.
Theuncertaintyintheaveragedosesfromthevariousscenariosmightincludeoneorall
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oftherelevantsourcesofvariabilityintheinputdata:dailyvariationindiet,variationinradionuclideconcentrationinthefoodstuffs,orbiologicalhalf-lives,anduncertaintiesinthedosimetrymodelsandcoefficients.Individualvariabilityinbiologicalhalf-livescanbedealtwithinoneofthreeways:addingaspecificationofbiologicalhalf-lifetothedescriptionofthescenario,fixingthecesiumbiologicalhalf-lifeat110d(theICRPaverageadultvalue),orincorporatingvariabilityinthebiologicalhalf-lifeintheuncertaintyinthedose.Ifthelatterapproachistakenthedatabaseonbiologicalhalf-livesintheRongelap(orMarshallese)populationmustbeexpanded.
Thescenarioapproachtoriskassessmentisoftenused.Becausetheriskiscomputedforapersonwithspecificcharacteristics,itispossibletoidentifythecharacteristicsassociatedwithhighdoseanddecidewhetheranypersonislikelytopossessthosecharacteristics.
Conclusions
ThereliabilityoftheprobabilisticapproachforestimatinguncertaintyinthedosetoreturningRongelappeopleislimitedbythesparsenessofinformationonvariabilityamongindividuals.
Ascenarioapproachmightbemoreeffectivebecauseitcanidentifyeventsthatcontributetohighdoses.AsuiteofrelevantscenariosshouldbedevelopedincollaborationwiththeMarshallese.
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7.DoseLimitsandTheirApplicationsThiscommitteewaschargedtoreviewandcommentontheapplicabilityoftheICRPrecommendationsonannualdoselimitsforgeneralpopulationsastheypertaintoanticipateddosecommitmentsafterresettlementincontaminatedareasoftheMarshallIslands.
Thequestionofapplicabilityissomewhatacademic,inasmuchasradiologicalcriteriaforthedecisiononresettlementhavebeenagreedonandarepresentedintheMOU(ArticleV,paragraph1).ThesecriteriaarethatnopersonresettlingonthesouthernislandsofRongelapAtollandsubsistingonalocal-food-onlydietwouldreceiveacalculatedannualeffectiveradiationdoseexceeding100mremabovenaturalbackgroundorwouldbeincidentallyexposedtoconcentrationsoftransuranicsinthesoilinexcessoftheprescribedactionlevelof17pCi/g.ItshouldbenotedthatthecommitteehadseriousreservationsregardingtheMOUprovisionrelatingtoadoselimit,oractionlevel,basedonthemaximallyexposedindividual.Radiationstandardsandthetechniquesusedinradiationdosimetrydonotlendthemselvestothedeterminationofdosetothemaximallyexposedindividual.Thisisparticularlytrueforapopulationoflimitedsizewherethestatisticalpowerfordeterminingdosesattheextremesofthedosedistributionsislimited.ThecommitteewasinformedbyDOErepresentatives,however,thatthislimitwastobeusedonlyasaguidelineforresettlementdecisionsandthat,asaninternationallynegotiatedparameter,weweretoconsideritasafixedparameter.
Theactionlevelof17pCi/gforplutoniumsoilconcentrationsisbasedonaU.S.EnvironmentalProtectionAgencyactionlevelof0.2mCi/m2forpublicprotectionfromaccidentalcontaminationofthe
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environment.TheEPAactionlevelwasdevelopedforapplicationtorecentcontamination,thusalloftheradioactivecontaminationwasconsideredtobeconcentratedwithinthetop1cmofthesoil.Withthisapproach,soilconcentrationslessthentheactionlevelwouldwarrantnofurtheraction.TheMOUactionlimitof17pCi/gwasderivedbyDOEfromthis0.2mCi/m2EPAguidelineusingasoildensityof1.2g/cm3appropriatetoRongelapandassumingthattheradioactivitywasinthetop1cmofsoil.BecausethecontaminationonRongelaptookplacenearly40yearsagotheinitialconcentrationofradionuclideshasleachedintothesoilcolumnandnolongerresidesonthesurface.Inadditionthevegetationcyclehasproducedapproximately1cmoffreshorganicmaterialoverthelastthreedecades.Takingtheseconsiderationsintoaccount,theMOUconsidersthepotentialforsubsequentradionuclidemigrationinthesoilbyprovidingprovisionsforaveragingofthe17pCi/gradionuclideconcentrationoverthetop5cmofsoil.
TheannualdoselimitrecommendedformembersofthepublicbyICRPisnotintendedtobedirectlyapplicabletodecisionsonwhentoreturntoanareathathasbeenevacuatedbecauseofradiologicalconcernsraisedbypotentialoractualradiationcontamination.Inthelattercircumstances,ICRPrecommendsthatthedecisiontoreturntoapreviouslyevacuatedareaisjustifiedwhenbeingbackismorebeneficialtothepeopleinvolvedthanremainingaway.Theassessmentofwhichismorebeneficialmusttakeintoaccountallthefactorsthat
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influencehealthandwell-being.Apopulationmightexpecttoachievethegreatestnetbenefitbyappropriateallocationofwhateverresourcesithasavailabletoitwithinthecontextofallthefactorsthataffectitshealthandwell-being.Itfollowsthatinanyspecificsituationbroughtaboutbyintervention,adecisionbyadisplacedpopulationneedstobemadeonthebasisoffactorsthathavethegreatestinfluenceonthem.Thereisnoreasontoexpectthatthemagnitudeofanyparticularfactor(forexample,residualcontamination)onwhichadecisiontoreturnisbasedwillbethesamefromcasetocase.Eachpopulation'ssituationwillinvolvedifferenttradeoffs.
ICRPrecognizesthatnumericalcriteriaactionlevelsareoftenhelpfulinmakingdecisions;inthisinstance,suchcriteriahavebeendefinedintheMOU.ImplicitinthewordingoftheMOUisthatthepartiestoitbelievedthatanetbenefitwouldaccruetothedisplacedpopulationwhentherecouldbeassurancethat,ontheirreturntoRongelap,themaximumannualdosereceivedbyanypersonandtheconcentrationoftransuranicseverywhereinsoilhadnaturallydecreasedorhadbeenreducedtostatedactionlevels.Withthoseconditionsmet,resettlementwouldbejustified.
TheMOUisnotclearonhowthespecifiednumericaldoseandconcentrationcriteriaaretobeapplied,i.e.,howdoesonedefinethemaximallyexposedperson?Fortheindividualdose,thegeneralapproachininterventionistoapplythecriteriatothegroupinvolvedasawhole,ifitissmallandisreasonablyhomogeneous,ortoadefinablesubsetofthegroupwhosecircumstancesandhabitsarereasonablysimilarandtypicalofindividualswhocouldberegardedasthosemaximallyexposed.Thelatteristheconceptofthe"criticalgroup."Variouscombinationsofhabitsandenvironmentalfactorsareusuallyexaminedindecidingthecharacteristicsoftheindividualsinthecriticalgroup.ForthereturningRongelapcommunity,suchasubsetcouldbeagroupthathasaparticulardiet,somedefined
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fractionofwhichislocallygrownfood.Forapplyingthecriteriononsoilconcentration,anothersubsetofthepopulationcouldbeagroupofchildrenwhosetimeisspentplayinginparticularareasandwhosedailysoilingestioncouldbedefined.Suchdefinitionofthegroupofmaximallyexposedchildrenprovidesthebasisforinterpretingthenumericalcriterionfortheconcentrationoftransuranicsinsoil.Theareaanddepthofsoiloverwhichtheconcentrationoftransuranicsshouldbeaveragedcanbedeterminedbyconsideringthehabitsand,ineffect,samplingsuchagroupofchildren.
Thoseareexamplesofthescenarioapproachdiscussedinthesectionondietmodels.Thealternativeistotakethestatisticalorprobabilisticapproachandassesstheprobabilitythatagivenfractionofthepopulationmightreceiveamaximumannualdoseaboveagivenvalue.Theprobabilitythatagivenconcentrationinsoil,whenaveragedoveragivenarea,willbeexceededcanalsobeestimated.
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8.RecommendationsforRemedialActionThecommitteehasconcludedfromitsstudyofavailableinformation(Chapters2-6)thattheannual-dosecriterionmightnotbemetforeveryindividual.However,theannual-dosecriterionmaybeconsideredasanarbitraryactionlevelthatdoesnotpresentanabsolutebarriertoresettlement.Remedialactionsshouldnotbejudgedsolelyonthebasisofaneedtomeetanactionlevel,butasameanstoincreasethephysicalandpsychologicalwell-beingoftheRongelappeopleiftheydecidetoresettle.
Knowledgeofthechemistryofcesiumandplutoniumandanunderstandingoftropicalecosystemscanbeusedtodeviseasetofpotentialremedialactions.Thefollowingconstitutemeansofremedialactionsnotmeanttobeall-inclusivethatcouldsubstantiallyreducetheamountofradiationreceivedbypeoplelivingonRongelap.
1.Thefirstgenerallyacceptedremedialaction,impliedintheMOU,andrecommendedbythiscommitteeisthatthelocal-food-onlydietislimitedtofoodgatheredonthesouthernislandsofRongelapAtoll.ThepotentialconsequencesofnotfollowingthisrecommendationandofconsumingfoodcollectedonthenorthernisletsofRongelaporRongerikAtollaresummarizedincolumnEofTable5-4.Exposuretocesium-137couldbeincreasedbyafactorof8-32ifallpandanus,coconut,andbreadfruitwerecollectedonthenorthernislets.Amajorconsequenceofrestrictedaccesstothenorthernpartsoftheseatollswillbetolimitavailablefoodresources.
2.PeoplelivingonRongelapwillreceivemostoftheirexposuretocesium-137fromsurfacesoil,eitherthroughdirectirradiationofthebody(externaldose)orthroughingestionofplantsthathaveextracted
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cesium-137fromthesoilduringgrowth(internaldose).Itisrecommendedthatthereturningpopulationrestrictthequantitiesofsomelocalfoodsintheirdiet.TheeffectivenessofthisactisobviousinthedoseprojectionsofTable5-4.Exposuretocesium-137maybereducedbyafactorofgreaterthan5whenimportedfoodsaresubstitutedforsomelocalfoods(i.e.,dietAversusdietCinTable5-4).AmodestsupplementaryfoodprogramwouldhelpthereturningRongelappeopletoobtainthenecessaryquantitiesofimportedfood.
3.Actionsthatreducethedirectexposurefromsubsurfacecesium-137orreducetheuptakeofcesium-137fromthesoilbylocalfoodstuffsarealsolikelytoreducethemaximumannualdose.Onesuchactionistoremovetheupperlayerofsurfacesoilfromthevillageandoneachhouseplot(Robisonetal.,1993).Anotheristoaddalayerofcrushedcoralaroundthehousesandtocommonareasofcongregationthroughoutthevillage.BoththeseactionsarerecommendedastheycouldbeaccomplishedashousingisrebuiltonRongelapIslandbeforeresettlementwithlittleimpactonresettlementactivities.
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4.ThecommitteealsorecommendstheapplicationofKClasfertilizerandforremediationinagriculturalareas.TheapplicationofKClwouldreducetheuptakeofcesium-137bycoconut,breadfruit,andpandanusfruit.RobisonandStone(1992)havedemonstratedtheeffectivenessofKClinreducingcesium-137incoconutsgrownonBikiniandinincreasingplantgrowthintherelativelypotassium-deficienttropicalsoilsofthenorthernMarshallIslands.PotassiumchlorideisacommonfertilizerusedintheUnitedStateswithnoknowndetrimentalhealtheffectswhenusedintheconcentrationscommonlyappliedasacommercialfertilizer.Thisformofremediationrequiresonlymodesteffortandhasnoreporteddetrimentaleffectsforhumansorotherpartsoftheecosystem.
5.Theremovalofthetop30-40cmofsoilfromtheislandisanotherpotentialremedialaction.However,thisapproachisnotrecommended;ithashadsubstantialeffectsonlifestyleandontheenvironmentofEnewetokAtoll.Giventhefragileecologyofthesecoralislandstheregenerationoftopsoilremovedinsuchanextremeproceduremayrequiredecades,orevencenturies.Suchanextrememeasureshouldbeoneoflastresort;onthebasisoftheprojecteddosesachievablewithmoremoderatemeansofremediation,itappearsunnecessary.
Continuationofremedialactions1,2,and4mightberelaxedifmonitoringindicatesthatwhole-bodyburdensarelowerthanestimated.
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9.RecommendationsforPost-ResettlementMonitoring
RadiationDosimetry
Toensurethecontinuedwell-beingofthepeopleofRongelapandtoensurethattheconditionsoftheMOUarebeingmet,continuingpost-resettlementradiationsurveillancewillbenecessary.Forthepurposesofthisdiscussion,weestimatethatabout400personswillelecttoreturntoRongelap.Wesuggestthatthispopulationinitiallybeunderrathertightsurveillance,whichcanberelaxedasexperiencedictates.
Itissuggestedthatthefollowingactivitiesbeinitiatedbeforeandcontinuedafterresettlement:
1.Eachpersonshouldreceiveawhole-bodycount(WBC)beforeresettlementandawhole-bodycountannuallythereafterwiththecountingactivitytobeconductedduringoneoffoursuchactivitieseachyear.
2.Acohortof80personsstratifiedbyageandsexdrawnfromtheestimated400whomaychoosetoresettlewillbemonitoredforwhole-bodyradionuclideburdensateachofthefourWBCcountingperiods.Thiswillprovidecohortdataonpotentialseasonalvariationsintheradionuclideintake.Personsfoundatanannualcounttohaveunusuallyhighbodyburdensshouldbeimmediatelyrecountedtodeterminewhethererrorsincountinghadoccurred;ifnot,theyshouldbeaddedtothegroupsampledquarterlyuntilthecause(s)oftheirhighbodyburdensisidentified.Dietaryintakeshouldbeassessedeachtimewhole-bodycountingisconducted;thisisbestdonewithacarefullyplannedfood-frequencyquestionnaire.Thecommitteerecommendsthatthisdietarysurvey,includingthequestionnaire,be
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developedinconsultationwithwellqualifiedexpertsinnutritionanddiet,andwithknowledgeofthelocalculture.
3.Abaselineurinesampleshouldbeobtainedbeforeresettlementandstoredunderidealconditionsforradioassayincaseitbecomesnecessary.Alimitednumberofsamples,chosenatrandom,shouldbeanalyzedtotestthatplutoniumlevelsremainat,orbelow,thelevelsofsensitivityofcurrentanalyticmethods(50-80aCi).Effortshouldbeexpandedtodevelopmoresensitiveanalytictechniques,includingastudyoftheemergingtechnologyofmassspectroscopy,toenablemorereliableandaccuratemonitoringoflowlevelsofplutoniuminthefuture.
4.Aneffortshouldbeinitiatedtoestablishacentralrepositoryforbothindividualdosimetryrecordsandbiologicalsamplesasreferencesforfutureindividualmedicalconcerns.
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IfthemonitoringmeasurementsindicatethatthetermsoftheMOUarebeingadequatelymetandifremedialactivitiesarethenrelaxed,surveillanceshouldcontinue.Ifafterseveralyearsoffurthersurveillanceitisclear,evenwithsuchrelaxationofremedialmeasures,thatthetermsoftheMOUarebeingmet,thesurveillanceprocedurescanbefurtherrelaxed.
MedicalConsiderations
Onthebasisofcurrentradiationdoseestimates,thereisnoexpectationthatanymedicalillnessduetoexposuretoionizingradiationwilloccurinanymembersoftheresettlementpopulationoftheislandofRongelapfromeitherintakeofnativefoodsorenvironmentalcontact.Unrelatedandperceivedmedicalproblemswilloccur,however,sobasicmedical-careandmedical-surveillanceprogramsshouldbedevelopedthatarecloselyintegratedwithcontinuingbiodosimetryprograms.Thebasicprogramshouldbeconductedbytheindigenousinhabitantsoftheislandandshouldbedesignedtomeetthechallengesoftheseriousmedicalproblemsofachangingsocietyinanisolatedgeographicalenvironment.Itisanticipatedthatthemajormedicalconcernsofthefuturewillbehighincidencesofobesity,diabetes,andhypertension,mostcasesofwhicharerelatedtoincreasedacceptanceof"westernized"dietswithhighsodiumandfatcontentinassociationwitharelativelysedentarylifestyle.
ThespecificproblemsthatmustbeaddressedforthosereturningtotheislandofRongelaprequireareasonableandcontinuingmedicalprogram,whichshouldconsistofthefollowing:
1.Regularmedicalsurveillance.
2.Managementofacuteandchronicmedicalproblems.
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3.Capabilitytoinvestigatechangesindietarypatternsthatmightberelatedtodiabetes,hypertension,obesity,vitamindeficiency,malnutrition,andrelateddisorders.
4.Maintenanceofindividualmedicalrecords.
5.Abilitytocollectandpreparebiologicalsamplesformedicallaboratoriesandradioassay.
6.Staffandfacilitiesforperformingbasiclaboratorytests,includingbloodcounts,urinalysis,andstoolexamination.
7.Centralmedicalcommunicationandevacuationprograms.
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Toimplementthemedicalprogramnotedabove,weofferthefollowingrecommendations:
1.Facilities.Ataminimum,acentrallylocatedgovernment-operatedhealthclinicshouldbeestablished.Itshouldcontainadequatespaceandprovisionsformedicalexaminationofadultsandchildren,medicalfirstaid,abasicmedicallaboratory,anofficeforadministrativepersonnelandthemaintenanceofmedicalrecords,andequipmentfortelecommunicationwithareliablesourceofmedicalconsultation.Themedicalfacilitymightalsobeanexcellentlocationforwhole-bodycountingandthemaintenanceofindividualdosimetryrecords.
2.Personnel.Ataminimum,oneparamedicalperson(nurse,nursepractitioner,orphysicianassistant)withsometraininginnutritionandradiationeffectsshouldoperatethemedicalaspectsofthemedicalprogram.Itwouldbeadvisabletohavethatpersonbeamemberoftheresettlementpopulation.Trainingofsuchapersonshouldcommencewellinadvanceofresettlement.Heorsheshouldbecapableofconductingmedicalinterviewsandphysicalexaminations,maintainingmedicalrecords,performingbasiclaboratoryexaminations,administeringfirstaid,operatingchannelstocommunicatewithphysicianconsultants,andpreparingandstoringorshippingbiologicalsamplesforbioassay.Itisconceivablethatthesamepersonmightbetrainedtoconductandrecordtheresultsofwhole-bodycounting.
3.MedicalSurveillance.Theresettlementpopulationshouldbeencouragedtohaveregularmedicalinterviews,physicalexaminations,andlaboratorystudiesatintervalsatleastonceevery2years.Theresultsofsuchexaminationsshouldberecordedinindividualhealthrecordsandbereviewedbyaphysicianatleastonceayear.Morbidityandmortalitystatisticsfortheentireresettlement
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populationalsoshouldbereviewedatleastonceayearbyaqualifiedphysicianorepidemiologist.Itisessentialthataphysicianorotherqualifiedpersonbeavailableforconsultationtodeterminewhetheraspecificmedicalproblemisradiation-related.
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Wong,K.M.,T.A.Jokela,andV.E.Noshkin.1994.RadiochemicalProceduresforAnalysisofPu,Am,Cs,andSrinWater,Soil,Sediments,andBiotaSamples.UCRL-ID-116497.LawrenceLivermoreNationalLaboratory,Livermore,CA.Pp.1-17.
Yuhas,J.A.,J.E.Bolland,andT.W.Bolland.1989.Theimpactoftraining,foodtype,gender,andcontainersizeontheestimationoffoodportionsizes.J.Am.Dietet.Assoc.87:1473-1477.
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Glossarya prefixmeaning10-15whenusedasaunitdesignation,i.e.,
aCi(atto-Curie)BNL BrookhavenNationalLaboratoryBq Unitofactivityequalto1persecondBRAVOCodenamefortheU.S.nucleartestthatcontaminatedthe
RongelapAtollCi Unitofradioactivityequalto3.7X1010disintegrations
persecondDOE U.S.DepartmentofEnergyd unitoftime,dayg unitofmass,gramh unitoftime,hourICRP InternationalCommissiononRadiationProtectionLLNL LawrenceLivermoreNationalLaboratorym prefixmeaning10-6whenusedasaunitdesignation,i.e.,
mCi(micro-Curie)m prefixmeaning10-3whenusedasaunitdesignation,i.e.,
mCi(milli-Curie)MOU MemorandumofunderstandingbetweentheU.S.andthe
RepublicoftheMarshallIslands
n prefixmeaning10-9whenusedasaunitdesignation,i.e.,nCi(nano-Curie)
rem unitofabsorbeddoseNRC NationalResearchCouncilRMI RepublicoftheMarshallIslandss unitoftime,secondSv unitofabsorbeddose(1Sv=100rem)SI Internationalsystemofunitsandmeasures
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WBC Wholebodycount,orwholebodycountingy unitoftime,year
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AppendixMemorandumofUnderstandingbyandbetweenTheRepublicoftheMarshallIslands,theRongelapAtollLocalGovernmentCouncil,theUnitedStatesDepartmentofEnergyOfficeofEnvironment,SafetyandHealthandTheUnitedStatesDepartmentofInterior,OfficeofTerritorialandInternationalAffairsfortheRongelapResettlementProject
ThisMEMEORANDUMOFUNDERSTANDING(hereinafterreferredtoas"MOU"),ismadebyandbetweentheREPUBLICOFTHEMARSHALLISLANDS(hereinafterreferredtoas"RMI",theRONGELAPATOLLLOCALGOVERNMENTCOUNCIL(hereinafterreferredtoas"RALGOV"),theUNITEDSTATESDEPARTMENTOFENERGYrepresentedbytheOfficeforEnvironment,SafetyandHealth(hereinafterreferredtoas"DOE/ES&H),andtheUNITEDSTATESDEPARTMENTOFTHEINTERIOR(hereinafterreferredtoas''DOI/OTIA").
Witnesseth:
WHEREAS,thepurposeofthisMOUistoimplementprovisionsofTitleI,Sections103(i)and105(c)ofU.S.PublicLaw99-239;and
WHEREAS,infurtheranceoftheforegoingprovisionsofU.S.PublicLaw99-239andNitijelaResolution1986-62,RMIandRALGOVhavecausedtobepreparedthe"RongelapAtollResettlementProject
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ScientificWorkPlan:,acopyofwhichisattachedhereto(andhereinafterreferredtoasthe"RongelapWorkPlan");and
WHEREAS,infurtheranceoftheforegoingprovisionofU.S.PublicLaw99-239,theU.S.CongresshasappropriatedfundsfortheimplementationandsupportoftheRongelapWorkPlanpursuanttoPublicLaw102-154;and
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WHEREAS,RMIandRALGOVhaveagreedtoandshallbyafutureseparateagreementestablishaRongelapResettlementProject(hereinafterreferredtoasthe"RongelapResettlementProject")inordertofullyimplementandassuretheday-to-daymanagementofthescientificstudiesandconductotherresettlementactivities;and
WHEREAS,allthepartiestothisMOUarecommittedtotakingallactionsrequiredinordertoassurethetimelyimplementationoftheRongelapWorkPlanandsuchfutureresettlementactivitiesandactionsasmaysubsequentlyprovenecessarysuchthattheresettlementofthepeopleofRongelapmaybesecured;
NOWTHEREFORE,beitagreedasfollows:
ArticleI-General
1.TheactivitiesoftheRongelapAtollResettlementProjectScientificWorkPlan,otherwisereferredtohereinasthe"RongelapWorkPlan",areherebyendorsedbyeachofthesignatorypartiesastheproperscientificstudiesthatarenecessarytocharacterizetheradiologicalandenvironmentalconditionsofthesouthernislandsofRongelapAtoll,anduponwhichthedeterminationforresettlementofthesouthernislandswillbemadeandfurtherthat:
2.Thesignatorypartiescommitthemselves,onetotheotherandeachtoall,thatuponreceiptoffundingfortheRongelapWorkPlanpursuanttoU.S.CongressionalappropriationtheyshallfullycooperateinandsupportthecompletionoftheRongelapWorkPlanandthestudiesundertakenpursuantthereto.
ArticleIIAgreementby&BetweenDOI/OTIAandDOE/ES&H,RALGOV,andRMIfortheImplementation&ConductoftheRongelapWorkPlaninSupportoftheResettlementofthePeopleofRongelap
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TheDepartmentofInterior/OfficeofTerritorialandInternationalAffairs,theDepartmentofEnergy/OfficeofEnvironment,SafetyandHealth,theRongelapAtollLocalGovernmentCouncilonbehalfofthePeopleofRongelap,andtheRepublicoftheMarshallIslandsfurtheragreethat:
[Theinitialstage-Determinationofreadinessforresettlement]
1.ThestudyandultimateresettlementofRongelapshallbeundertakeninstages,beginningwithaninitialenvironmentalandradiologicalassessmentofRongelapIslandandthoseislandscomprisingthesouthernone-halfofRongelapAtoll,saidareatoencompassonthewesternsideofRongelapAtollfromBokonlepIslandsouthandontheeasternsidefromErebotIslandsouth.
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2.TheprimaryconditionofadeterminationtoinitiateresettlementfortheareadefinedinSection1ofthisArticleisthatthecalculatedmaximumwhole-bodyradiationdoseequivalenttothemaximallyexposedresidentshallnotexceed100millirem(mrem)/yearabovenaturalbackground,baseduponalocalfoodonlydiet,suchthatiftheradiologicalassessmentundertakeninaccordancewiththeRongelapWorkPlandemonstratesthatnoindividualwouldreceiveanannualradiationdoseequivalentinexcessof100mremabovenaturalbackground,resettlementwillensue.RALGOVmayatitsdiscretiongiveconsiderationtoadditionalpotentialmeasures(i.e.,applicationoffertilizers)toreduceindividualandpopulationradiationexposurestothereturningpopulationfurtherbelowthe100mrem/yearlimit.
3.The"localfoodonlydiet"declarationismeanttoconstituteatraditionalRongelapcommunitydietconsistentoflocalfoodtaken,grownand/orgatheredfromthesouthernislandsofRongelapAtollandtheimmediatelysurroundingwatersasdefinedinSection1ofthisArticle.ItisagreedthatthemakeupofaRongelap"localfoodonlydiet,"andforcomparisonpurposesamore"realisticdiet,"shallbemorepreciselydeterminedandquantifiedpursuanttotheRongelapWorkPlan,inconsultationwiththeRongelapcommunity.Initsdeterminationofwhatconstitutesa''localfoodonlydiet,"theRongelapAtollLocalGovernmentCouncilmayatitdiscretionincludeimportedfoodsthatarestaplesofthediet,e.g.rice.
4.(a)Anadditionalconditionofmitigationistheextentoftransuraniccontamination,especiallyplutoniumcontaminationofsoil.Thepartiesareagreedthatthisissue,aswellasthepossibleneedforanenvironmentalcleanupprogramsolelyfortransuraniccontamination,requirescarefuldeliberation.Tothisend,itisagreedthatthestudiesundertakenpursuanttotheRongelapAtoll,utilizingasanactionlimitthescreeningleveloftheU.S.EnvironmentalProtectionAgency("EPA")of0.2microcuriespersquaremeter,whichhasbeen
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translatedbytheDOE/ES&Hintoanactivityconcentrationof17picocuries/gram(pCi/g)oftransuranicsaveragedinthetop5centimeters(cm)ofsoil.Theactionlimithasbeensetat17pCi/goftransuranicsinsoil.MeasurementoftransuraniccontaminationintheenvironmentanddeterminationofwhethertheactionlimithasbeenmetorexceededwillbemadepursuanttoanappropriateenvironmentalsamplingplandevelopedbytheRongelapResettlementProject.
(b)ShouldtheRongelapWorkPlaninvestigationsdeterminethatnosoilconcentrationoftransuranicsisinexcessoftheaforementionedprescribedactionlimit,thennofurtherconsiderationforsoilcleanupoftransuranicsiswarranted.If,ontheotherhand,itisdeterminedthatsoilconcentrationsexceedtheprescribedactionlimit,thenrecommendationastotheneedforremedialactivityand/orcleanupshallbeincludedaspartofthereportpreparedpursuanttotheRongelapWorkPlan.
(c)Totheextentthattransuraniccontaminationexistsinexcessoftheprescribedactionlimitbutislimitedinnature,controllable,anddoesnotimpactdesignateddwelling,foodgathering,foodgrowing,and/orrecreationalareas,thenresettlementmayensuewhilemitigativemeasuresareconsideredand/orundertaken.
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5.IntheeventtheassessmentofRongelapAtollconductedpursuanttotheRongelapWorkPlandemonstratesthatradiologicalconditionsonBokonlepIslandorErebotIsland(andtheirimmediatewaters)exceedtheherein-definedstandardsforresettlement,theoveralldeterminationtoinitiateresettlementforthesouthernislandsofRongelapAtollshallbemadewithoutconsiderationof,andtotheexclusionof,radiologicalconditionsonBokonlepIslandorErebotIsland.
[Adeterminationofnon-readinessforresettlement]
6.IntheeventthattheenvironmentalandradiologicalassessmentundertakenpursuanttotheRongelapWorkPlandemonstratesthatthesouthernislandsofRongelapAtollarenotreadyforresettlementwithoutfirstundertakingaclean-upandremedialprogram,theRongelapResettlementProjectshallimmediatelyprepareareportforpresentationtothepartiesheretocontainingrecommendationastoclean-uprequirementsandoptionalremedialactivitiesdesignedtomakethesouthernislandsofRongelapAtollreadyforresettlement.
[Needforfurthersurveys]
7.(a)IntheeventtheRongelapWorkPlanreport(s)tobepreparedbytheRongelapResettlementProjectinaccordancewithArticleIII,Section6(a)ofthisMOUdemonstrate(s),baseduponthestandardsandcriteriahereinsetforth,
(1)thatthesouthernislandsofRongelapAtollarefullyresettleable,thesecondstageofprojectstudyshallbetheradiologicalcharacterizationofthenorthernislandsofRongelapAtoll;or,alternatively,
(2)thatthesouthernislandsofRongelapAtollarenotfullyresettleablewithoutremedialactivityand/orclean-up,evenafterconsiderationofSection5tothisArticle,thentheRongelapResettlementProjectshallimmediatelyproposeforconsiderationbythepartiesanextendedenvironmentalradiationcharacterizationnecessarytosupportthe
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developmentofremedialactionsand/orclean-up,asprescribedbySection6ofthisArticle,environmentalradiationcharacterizationinsuchotherareasasRongerikAtollandAilinginaeAtollandfurther,uponcompletionoftheseobjectives,theRongelapResettlementProjectwouldproceedwiththeevaluationofthenorthernislandsofRongelapAtollasprescribedinsubsection7(a)(1).
(b)ItistheintentofthepartiestoensurethatappropriateenvironmentalandradiologicalassessmentsareultimatelyconductedofalloftheancestralhomelandoftheRongelappeopletoincludetheremainderofRongelapAtoll,AilinginaeAtoll,andRongerikAtoll.ItisunderstoodthattheseadditionalstudiescontemplatedbythissectionaresubjecttoandconditioneduponfutureU.S.Congressionalfunding.
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[Resettlement]
8.RongelapcommunityresettlementwillensueiftheinitialassessmentdescribedatSection1ofthisArticleestablishesthatnoindividualresidingonthesouthernislandsofRongelapAtollandconsumingalocalfoodonlydietwouldreceiveacalculateddoseof100mrem/yearormoreofradiationabovenaturalbackgroundintheMarshallIslands.
9.OnceadeterminationofreadinessforresettlementbytheRongelapResettlementProjectismadeandaffirmedbythepartiestothisMOU,planningforresettlementandimplementationthereofshallimmediatelycommence,withthefullcooperationofallpartiesthatfundingforrehabilitationandresettlementshallbeprovidedbywayofseparateU.S.Congressionalappropriation,thefundstobetransferredfromtheU.S.GovernmenttoaRongelapResettlementTrustFundinaccordancewiththetrustagreementbetweenDOI,RMI,andRALGOVrequirementsimposedbyCongress.
10.Forpurposesofresettlement,"Rongelapcommunityresettlement"referstothevoluntaryreturntoRongelapAtolloftheRongelappeoplenowresidingonMejattoIslandandsuchothercitizensoftheMarshallIslandswhobyvirtueoftheirlandrightsinRongelapAtollvoluntarilywishtoberesettled.
11.ThepartiesrecognizethathealthconcernsmayexistformanymembersoftheRongelapcommunitybyvirtueoftheirpriorexposuretoradiation.AdditionallytheyrecognizetheneedforcontinuedradiologicalmonitoringbothofreturnedcitizensandoftheRongelapAtollenvironmentuponresettlement.Accordingly,thepartiesagreetoaddresstheseproblemsaspartoftheresettlementprogram.
12.Thepartiesalsoagreethatintheeventofadeterminationforresettlementandsubsequentresettlement,relevantrevisionsto
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recommendedindividualexposurelevelsasexpressedinInternationalCommissionforRadiationProtection("ICRP")andtheNationalCouncilonRadiationProtectionandMeasurements("NCRP")guidelineswillbereviewedtoensurethatradiationexposuresaremaintainedatanacceptablelevelofrisk.
[Future]
13.Ifinthefutureapplicableradiationprotectionstandards(e.g.,theNCRPandtheICRP)aresignificantlyreducedtobelowcurrentrecommendations,orpost-resettlementwhole-bodymeasurementsindicatethatRongelapresidentsarebeingexposedtoradiationlevelsinexcessofthe100mrem/yearlimitestablishedbySection2ofthisArticle,thenthepartiesagreetoreevaluatetheindividualdosesbeingreceivedbythepopulationoranindividualatthattimetodeterminethatnoindividualisbeingexposedtoanyunduerisk,andtakesuchremedialactionasshallatthattimebedeemedappropriate.
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ArticleIIIAgreementby&betweentheRongelapAtollLocalGovernmentCouncil(RALGOV)andtheRepublicoftheMarshallIslands(RMI)
TheRALGOVandRMIfurtheragreethat:
1.InordertofacilitatetheimplementationofthisMOUandtheRongelapWorkPlan,RALGOVandRMIshallestablishaseparateentity,tobeknownastheRongelapResettlementProject,whichshallserveasthecontractingauthorityforimplementationofthisMOUandtheRongelapWorkPlanandwhichshallbegovernedjointlybyonerepresentativeofRMIandonerepresentativeofRALGOV.
2.ThescientificdirectionandoperationalmanagementoftheRongelapResettlementProjectshallbedelegatedbyRMIandRALGOV,throughtheRongelapResettlementProject,toaRongelapResettlementProjectScientificManagementTeam(hereinafterthe''ScientificManagementTeam").Inadditiontohis/herdutiesandobligationsassetforthinSection3ofthisArticle,onememberoftheScientificManagementTeam,mutuallyselectedbyRMIandRALGOV,shallserveasprincipalscientificadvisortotheRongelapResettlementProject.
3.TheScientificManagementTeamshallbeselectedbyRMIandRALGOVandbecomprisedofnotlessthantwonornomorethanthreeappropriatelyqualifiedscientists.ThemembersoftheScientificManagementTeamshallbeassignedjointresponsibilityforthescientificdirectionandoperationalmanagementoftheRongelapResettlementProject,notwithstandingthattheirrespectivedutiesandresponsibilitiesundertheRongelapWorkPlanmayvary.Atleastoneofthescientistsshallhavedemonstratedexpertiseinenvironmentalandradiologicalanalysis.UponappointmentofthescientistscomprisingtheScientificManagementTeam,RMIandRALGOV
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shallthroughtheRongelapResettlementProjectprovideaservicecontractforeachindividual'stermofappointment.
4.RMIandRALGOVshallutilizesuchfundingasismadeavailablebytheGovernmentoftheUnitedStates,pursuanttoCongressionalappropriation,andtheassistanceoftheRMINationwideRadiologicalStudypursuanttoArticleVI,paragraph7ofthisMOUandArticleII,Sectionl(e)oftheAgreementBetweentheGovernmentoftheUntiedStatesandtheGovernmentoftheMarshallIslandsfortheImplementationofSection177oftheCompactofFreeAssociation("theSection177Agreement"),tofulfillthescientificandtechnicalrequirementsoftheRongelapWorkPlanaswellasthereportingrequirementsthataremandatedbythisMOU.
5.TheRALGOVandRMIshallalsomutuallyestablishandcontractforaRongelapResettlementProjectScientificPeerGroup(hereinafterthe"ScientificPeerReviewGroup"),toprovidescientificpeerreviewoftheimplementationoftheRongelapWorkPlanandothertechnologicalaspectsoftheconductoftheRongelapResettlementProject.TheScientificPeer
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ReviewGroupshallbeavailableforconsultationtotheScientificManagementTeamasnecessarytoexecutetheRongelapWorkPlan.TheRALGOVandRMImayuponmutualagreementchangemembershipontheScientificPeerReviewGroupasresettlementproceeds,andneedsdictate.
6.(a)TheRALGOVandRMIshallchargetheScientificManagementTeamwiththeresponsibilityofprovidingthefollowingreports,inbothEnglishandMarshallese,totheRongelapResettlementProjectestablishedpursuanttoSection1ofthisArticle:
(1)OnorbeforeMay1,1992,apreliminaryreportonthereadinessofthesouthernislandsofRongelapAtollforresettlementinordertopermitthepartiestodecidewhethertopursuethestudyoptionsetforthatSection7(a)(2)ofArticleIIofthisMOUinpreferencetotheoptiondescribedatSection7(a)(1).
(2)UponconclusionoftheRongelapWorkPlan,acomprehensivereport,inbothEnglishandMarshallese,shallbepreparedontheradiologicalconditionsonRongelapIslandandthesouthernislandsofRongelapAtoll,pursuanttosuchrequirementsandsuchschedulesasmaysubsequentlybedeemednecessarybyRMIandRALGOV.SaidreportshalladdresseachcomponentoftheRongelapWorkPlan,anynecessaryandappropriaterecommendationsfollowingtherefrom,andshallinclude:asummaryofstudyresults;dosetoinfantsandchildren;doseassuminga"localfoodonly"dietascomparedtoa"realisticdiet"thatincludesimportedfoods;anddoseduetoplutonium.
(b)UponconclusionofsubsequentstagesoftheRongelapResettlementProject,comprehensivereportsshallbepreparedpursuanttosuchrequirementsandschedulesasmaysubsequentlybedeemednecessarybyRMIandRALGOV.
7.UponreceiptofaScientificManagementTeamreportpursuanttoSection6ofthisArticle,theRongelapResettlementProjectshallprovidecopiesofsametotheScientificPeerReviewGroupfor
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review,commentandrecommendation.ResultingrecommendationsoftheScientificPeerReviewGroupshallbeformallyacceptedorrejectedbytheRongelapResettlementProject.
8.RALGOVandRMIshall,throughtheRongelapResettlementProject,forwardanyreportreceivedpursuanttoSection6ofthisArticletothepartiestothisMOU.ReportsforwardedtotheDOE/ES&Hshallbeaccompaniedbyanycommentsand/orrecommendationsthereonreceivedfromtheRongelapResettlementProjectScientificPeerReviewGroup.
[Assuranceoffuturefunding]
9.RALGOVandRMIherebycommitandpledgetooneanotherthatintheeventthefindings,conclusionsandrecommendationsresultingfromtheRongelapWorkPlanwarrantadditionalU.S.Congressionalfundingforfurtherstudies,clean-upandremedialprograms,
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and/orforresettlementoftheRongelappeopletheywilldiligentlyandingoodfaithworktogethertoobtaintheadditionalCongressionalappropriationsandfundingrequired.
10.RALGOVandRMIagreetodoeverythingwithintheirrespectivepowerstomaintainthescientificintegrityofthestudiesandassessmentsundertakenpursuanttotheRongelapWorkPlan,andtoreportinwritinganycompromisethereoftotheotherpartiestothisMOU.
ArticleIV-DepartmentofEnergy,OfficeofEnvironment,SafetyandHealth(DOE/ES&H)
TheDOE/ES&Hfurtheragreesthat:
1.TheDOE/ES&HshallcooperatewithandsupporttheRongelapResettlementProject,specificallytheRongelapWorkPlan,asrequestedandtotheextentfeasible,byprovidingwheneverpossibleduringtheexecutionofitsroutinebiannualenvironmentalmonitoringmissionssuchlogisticalandothersupportasismutuallyagreed,thatwillassisttheRongelapResettlementProjectintransportingnecessarypersonnelandequipmenttoandfromRongelapAtoll.
2.SubjecttomodificationsasthepartiestothisMOUmightinthefutureagree,andCongressmightsubsequentlyendorse,DOE/ES&HshallcontinuetheconductofitsbioassayandmedicalmissionsfortheRongelappeopleduringandafterresettlementofRongelap,pursuanttoSection103(h)(1)ofPublicLaw99-239.
3.CopiesofreportsreceivedpursuanttoArticleIII,paragraph8ofthisMOUshallbetransmittedbyDOE/ES&HtotheNASScientificPeerReviewGroupforreviewandcomment.
4.TheDOE/ES&Hshallgivedueconsiderationtotherecommendationsofitsscientificpeerreviewgroup(NAS).
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DOE/ES&HshallalsoassureallcommunicationsandrecommendationsbytheNASscientificpeerreviewgroupareforwardedtoRALGOVandRMI,fortransmittaltotheRongelapResettlementProjectScientificPeerReviewGroup.
5.UponrequestbytheRongelapResettlementProjectand/ortheRongelapProjectScientificManagementTeam,DOE/ES&HshallfurnishrequesteddatarelevanttothesuccessfulimplementationandcompletionoftheRongelapWorkPlantotheRongelapResettlementProject.
6.TheDOE/ES&HagreestoconductitsRongelapAtollscientificactivitiesandstudiesinamannerbestcalculatedtocomplementandsupporttheRongelapWorkPlanandtheRongelapResettlementProject.Tothisend,DOE/ES&HshallregularlyconsultwiththeRongelapResettlementProject,theRongelapScientificManagementTeam,andotherappropriateRALGOVandRMIrepresentativesastoplannedandongoingDOE/ES&HorDOE/ES&H-contractedprojectsandactivitiesrelatedtoorotherwiseaffectingRongelap.
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7.TheDOE/ES&HshallprovideormakeavailabletoRALGOV,RMI,theRongelapResettlementProjectand/ortheScientificManagementTeam,withoutcharge,requesteddeclassifiedinformation,documentsanddatainDOE'spossession,orunderitscustodyorcontrol,concerningpastatmosphericandterrestrialmeasurementsrelevanttotheresettlementoftheRongelappeople.Totheextentifanydocumentsofestablishedrelevancearefoundtobeclassified,DOE/ES&Hshall,uponrequest,immediatelyinitiateaclassification/declassificationreviewinordertoensure,tothemaximumextentpossible,fulldisclosureofallinformationrelevantandnecessarytotheRongelapResettlementProjectandsuccessfulcompletionoftheRongelapWorkPlan.
ArticleV-RongelapAtollLocalGovernmentCouncil(RALGOV)
TheRALGOVfurtheragreesthat:
1.AssetforthinArticleIIofthisMOU,RALGOVagreesonbehalfofthePeopleofRongelapthatiftheinitialenvironmentalandradiologicalassessmentsoftheareasdescribedinSectionIofArticleIIestablishesthatnoindividualresettlingtothesouthernislandsofRongelapAtollandsubsistingonalocalfoodonlydietwouldreceiveanannualradiationdoseexceeding100mrem/yearabovenaturalbackgroundorwouldbeincidentallyexposedtoconcentrationsoftransuranicsinthesoilinexcessoftheprescribedactionlimitof17pCi/g,Rongelapcommunityresettlementwillensuewithoutconsiderationformitigation.However,considerationmaybegivenbyRALGOVtoadditionalpotentialmeasures(i.e.,applicationoffertilizers)toreduceindividualandpopulationradiationexposurestotherenamingpopulationfurtherbelowthe100rem/yearlimit.
2.RALGOVshallsupportthetimelycompletionoftheRongelapWorkPlanthrough:
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(a)MakingtheRALGOVMembersavailabletoconferwiththeScientificManagementTeamuponrequest;
(b)Securinganynecessarypermissionsforaccess,entrance,andtheconductoftheRongelapWorkPlanfromindividualsthatmayberequiredsothattheRongelapResettlementProjectcanundertakeandcompleteallprojectfieldwork;
(c)ServingasaliaisonbetweentheScientificManagementTeamandtheRongelapcommunityatlarge;
(d)ProvidinglocalpersonnelandcommunitysupportasnecessarytoaccomplishtheobjectivesoftheRongelapWorkPlanandanyforthcomingapprovedactivitiesrelatedtoresettlement.
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ArticleVI-RepublicoftheMarshallIslands(RMI)
RMIfurtheragreesthat:
1.TheRongelapResettlementProjectandRongelapWorkPlanshallbeundertakeninconjunctionwiththeRMINationwideRadiologicalStudyconductedpursuanttoArticleII,Section1(e)oftheSection177Agreement.
2.RMIshall,uponreceiptoffundsfromtheDOI/OTIApursuanttothisMOU,assuretheavailabilityofthesefundstotheRongelapResettlementProjectwithinfive(5)businessdaysofreceiptthereof,pursuanttothetermsandconditionstobesetforthinaseparateagreementtobeenteredintoandbyandbetweentheRongelapResettlementProject,RMIandRALGOV.
3.RMIassuresthatitwillcomplywithallapplicableU.S.Federallaws,regulationsandrequirementsastheyrelatetotheapplication,acceptance,useandaccountingoffundsprovidedpursuanttothisMOU.
4.AnSF-270,RequestforAdvanceorReimbursement,willbesubmittedbyRMItoDOI/OTIAforreleaseordrawdownoffundsonaquarterlybasis.SaidRequestsshallbemadeinconsultationwith,andpursuanttoinstructionsreceivedfromtheRongelapResettlementProject.
5.AnSF-269,FinancialStatusReport,willbesubmittedbyRMItoDOI/OTIAquarterly.
6.RMIshallprovidecopiesofallFinancialStatusReportsandRequestsforAdvancesorReimbursements,andanyotherreportsrequiredpursuanttothisMOU,theRongelapResettlementProject,whichshallinturnmakesamavailabletothepartiestothisMOUonaquarterlybasis.
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7.UtilizingthefundsmadeavailabletotheRMIGovernmentpursuanttoArticleII,Sectionl(e)oftheSection177Agreement,theRMINationwideRadiologicalStudyshallcontributecertainofitsservicestotheRongelapReassessmentProject.
8.RMIistoassuretheclearingandmaintenanceoftheairrunwayonRongelapIslandduringthecourseoftheRongelapResettlementProjectsufficienttopermitairtraffictoandfromRongelapIsland.
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ArticleVII-DepartmentoftheInterior,OfficeofTerritorialandInternationalAffairs(DOI/OTIA)
TheDOI/OTIAagreesthat:
1.TheDOI/OTIAshalltransfertotheRMItheappropriateportionofsuchfundsasareappropriatedbytheUnitedStatesCongress,pursuanttotheFY1992AppropriationAct(P.L.102-154)fortheDepartmentofInteriorforthepurposeofimplementingtheRongelapResettlementProject/RongelapWorkPlan.
2.TheappropriateportionoffundsspecificallyappropriatedbytheU.S.CongressforthepurposeofimplementingtheRongelapWorkPlanshallbetransferredtotheRMIonaquarterlybasispursuantto,anduponreceiptbyDOI/OTIAofaquarterlySF-270RequestforAdvanceorReimbursement.
3.CopiesofallfinancialstatusreportssubmittedtoDOI/OTIA,andanyotherreportsrequiredtobesubmittedtoDOI/OTIAbythisMOU,shallbeprovidedonatimelybasistoallpartiestothisMOU.
ArticleVIII-AdditionalAgreements
Allpartiesfurtheragree:
1.TheRongelapResettlementProjectshallbeinitiatedonoraboutMarch1,1992,orassoonaspracticableafterfundingismadeavailablebytheUnitedStatesGovernment.ItistheunderstandingandintentofthepartiestothisMOUthattheRongelapResettlementProjectshallconcludeitsmandateandsubmititsfinalreportpursuanttotheRongelapWorkPlanandthisMOUonorbeforeApril1,1993.
2.ThisMOUshallremainineffectpendingcompletionoftheRongelapResettlementProject.ThisMOUmaybeamendedbythemutualconsentofthepartieshereto.
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3.ThisMOUshallbegovernedandinterpretedinaccordancewithapplicablelawsoftheUnitedStatesandtheRepublicoftheMarshallIslands.IntheeventofdisputewithrespecttotheinterpretationorexecutionofthisMOU,thepartiesagreetointhefirstinstanceseektoresolvesuchdisputethroughfoodfaithnegotiationsbyandbetweenthemselves.Shouldsuchnegotiationsfail,resolutionofthematterindisputeshallbegovernedbytheConferenceandDisputeResolutionsprovisionsofTitleFour,ArticleII,oftheCompactofFreeAssociation,althoughnothingcontainedthereinshallbeconstruedasabartodirectandimmediateparticipationbyRALGOVinanyconferenceordisputeresolutionactivitiesthereunder.