r. met. soc. 15. march 2006 lennart bengtsson essc, reading, university tropical eddies in a future...
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R. Met. Soc.15. March 2006
Lennart BengtssonESSC, Reading, University
Tropical eddies in a future climate
Lennart Bengtsson
ESSC, University Reading
Many thanks to Kevin Hodges
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R. Met. Soc.15. March 2006
Lennart BengtssonESSC, Reading, University
How may anthropogenic climate change effect atmospheric vortices?
• There is a general expectation that climate change will imply more intense cyclones both in the extra-tropics and the tropics. And this is certainly the perception of media and the laymen that this is likely to happen in a future climate. And political decisions are driven by such perceptions. Intense storms even now are seen as being a consequence of greenhouse gases and only reduced CO2 emission will prevent future disaster storms.
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R. Met. Soc.15. March 2006
Lennart BengtssonESSC, Reading, University
After Emanuel
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R. Met. Soc.15. March 2006
Lennart BengtssonESSC, Reading, University
There are recent claims that there is an increase in hurricane intensity ( e.g. Emanuel (2005), Webster et al. (2005)
• Are these findings credible?
• They are generally not supported by operational meteorologists
• According to Knutson and Tuleya (2004) any changes are probably undetectable “for decades to come”
• Results from this study and some additional work will presumably reduce the likelihood of detection further
• There are structural problems in the detection of trends
• Changes in observing systems
• Difficulties to separate a genuine change in storms from societal causes behind the huge increase in damages and damage cost
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R. Met. Soc.15. March 2006
Lennart BengtssonESSC, Reading, University
Tropical cyclones in a future climatewhat could be expected?
• Higher SST and higher atmospheric moisture would generally favor more intense storms ( e.g. Emanuel 1988, 1999)
• This is supported by modeling results by Knutson and Tuleya (2004) driving an limited area model with CMIP2+ boundary data ( 9 different models).
• Increasing vertical wind-shear and reduced relative humidity would counteract this tendency. Such influences occur in the tropical N. Atlantic during El Nino.
• How will the number of storms change? What are the general conditions controlling the number of tropical storms?
• What are the critical conditions in modeling tropical storms? Are results from large scale models with limited resolution credible?
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R. Met. Soc.15. March 2006
Lennart BengtssonESSC, Reading, University
Impact of CO2-induced warming on simulated hurricane intensityKnutson and Tuleya (2004, J of Climate)
• They used a high resolution limited area model driven by the SST and moisture of 9 CGCM from the CMIP 2+ project.
• CMIP2 uses 1%yr-1 increase over an 80-year period implying an increase by a factor of 2.2.
• Model calculations are undertaken in NW Pacific-, NE Pacific- and Atlantic basin
• Four different convective schemes are tested (no significant differences)
• RESULTS:
• Max. surface wind speed increases by 6%
• Min. central pressure by 14%
• Max. precipitation by 24%
• Hurricane increase by a factor of 1/2 in the Simpson-Saphire scale
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R. Met. Soc.15. March 2006
Lennart BengtssonESSC, Reading, University
Intensification of hurricanes at 2xCO2
Knutson and Tuleya (2004)
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R. Met. Soc.15. March 2006
Lennart BengtssonESSC, Reading, University
Tropical eddies in GCMsSome previous work
• Manabe et al., 1970 (J.Atmos. Sci.)
• Bengtsson et al., 1982 ( Tellus)
• Haarsma et al., 1993 (Climat. Dyn.)
• Bengtsson et al., 1995, 1997 (Tellus)
• Tsutsui and Kasahara, 1996 ( J. Geophys.Res.)
• Vitard et al., 1997, 1999, 2001 (J. Climate)
• Sugi et al.,2002 ( J. Meteor. Soc. Japan)
• Camargo and Sobel, 2005 (J. Climate)
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R. Met. Soc.15. March 2006
Lennart BengtssonESSC, Reading, University
Early results, Bengtsson et al., 1995 (Tellus)
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R. Met. Soc.15. March 2006
Lennart BengtssonESSC, Reading, University
Effect of 2xCO2 From Bengtsson et al., 1997 (Tellus) ( number of cyclones /basin)
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R. Met. Soc.15. March 2006
Lennart BengtssonESSC, Reading, University
ECHAM 5
• Roeckner et al., (2003), MPI-Report 349( J of Clim. 2005)
• Resolution used T63L31 (top at 10hPa)
• Water vapour, cloud liquid water and cloud ice in semi-Lagrangian flux form-scheme
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R. Met. Soc.15. March 2006
Lennart BengtssonESSC, Reading, University
How are transient eddies identified?
• Data sets are needed at least every 6 hour
• We use a method proposed by Hodges (Hodges, 1999, MWR)
• We use the vorticity at 850hPa (unit 10-5 s-1)
• A transient eddy must exist for >48hours and be extended over at least1000km
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R. Met. Soc.15. March 2006
Lennart BengtssonESSC, Reading, University
Tropical storm tracks, 2005 MJJASO850 hPa ( Courtesy ECMWF)
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R. Met. Soc.15. March 2006
Lennart BengtssonESSC, Reading, University
Tropical track density (MJJASO)ECHAM5 (top), ERA40 (bottom)
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R. Met. Soc.15. March 2006
Lennart BengtssonESSC, Reading, University
Storm track intensity and densityECHAM5 and ERA 40 (MJJASO)
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R. Met. Soc.15. March 2006
Lennart BengtssonESSC, Reading, University
Number of tropical vortices ( max. intensity)ERA 40 and ECHAM5 (AMIP2), 3x
Extreme storms
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R. Met. Soc.15. March 2006
Lennart BengtssonESSC, Reading, University
Summary of results for ECHAM5 AMIP runs, NH tropics
• ECHAM5 has more eddy activity over the African continent with a slightly more northerly position
• In the Pacific ocean the eddy activity is less than in ERA40 except in the eastern Pacific.
• Some differences in the statistical distributing with more stronger storms in ECHAM5 except for a very few intense vortices ( less than one /year) where there some more in ERA40.
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R. Met. Soc.15. March 2006
Lennart BengtssonESSC, Reading, University
Courtesy
J. O’Brien
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R. Met. Soc.15. March 2006
Lennart BengtssonESSC, Reading, University
Tropical vortices response to ENSO, track density top ERA40, below ECHAM5 (20 year, AMIP)
ECHAM5, TRD
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R. Met. Soc.15. March 2006
Lennart BengtssonESSC, Reading, University
Tropical vortices response to ENSO, storm intensity top ERA40, below ECHAM5 (20 year, AMIP)
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R. Met. Soc.15. March 2006
Lennart BengtssonESSC, Reading, University
Storm track and ENSO
• There is a good agreement between ECHAM5 and ERA40 in the response to ENSO (using SST in NINO3 as a measure)
• Most marked is the storm track enhancement over southern US stretching into the Atlantic and the storm track enhancement in the northeast Pacific
• There is a weakening of the tropical Atlantic storm track and a southward transition of the Pacific storm track
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R. Met. Soc.15. March 2006
Lennart BengtssonESSC, Reading, University
The Climate change experiment The coupled model
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R. Met. Soc.15. March 2006
Lennart BengtssonESSC, Reading, University
Ocean Model (MPI-OM)
• Marsland et al., 2003: Ocean Modelling, 5(2), 91-127
• 40 levels, bottom topography, partial grid cells• 1.5° resolution, grid poles over land areas• Parameterization include isopycnal diffusion,
horizontal tracer mixing, vertical eddy mixing, convective overturning, slope convection
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R. Met. Soc.15. March 2006
Lennart BengtssonESSC, Reading, University
Climate change experiment
• Coupled model was run with pre-industrial forcing for 500 years ( negligible drift)
• 20th century runs 1860-2000 with observed anthropogenic forcing including CFCs, ozone and sulphate aerosols ( direct and indirect)
• 3 runs from different ocean and atmospheric states• The runs were continued until 2100 using IPCC
SRES scenario A1B
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R. Met. Soc.15. March 2006
Lennart BengtssonESSC, Reading, University
What is A1B?
• Middle of the line scenario
• Carbon emission peaking in the 2050s (16 Gt/year)
• CO2 reaching 450 ppm. in 2030
• CO2 reaching 700 ppm. in 2100
• SO2 peaking in 2020 then coming done to 20% thereof in 2100
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R. Met. Soc.15. March 2006
Lennart BengtssonESSC, Reading, University
SST changes 21C - 20 C
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R. Met. Soc.15. March 2006
Lennart BengtssonESSC, Reading, University
How will climate change affects the storm tracks?
• We compare three 30 year periods of 1961-1990 (20C) and 2071-2100 (21C)
• The 20C run agrees closely with the AMIP run
• Two different kinds of changes stand out:• (a) A broad conservation of the total number of
storms tracks except a minor reduction of the weaker storms
• (b) Geographical changes in the storm tracks
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R. Met. Soc.15. March 2006
Lennart BengtssonESSC, Reading, University
Changes in storm track density (top) and intensity(bottom) (21C-20C), MJJASO Tropics
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R. Met. Soc.15. March 2006
Lennart BengtssonESSC, Reading, University
Changes in storm track density (21C-20C) MJJASO
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R. Met. Soc.15. March 2006
Lennart BengtssonESSC, Reading, University
Tropical storm tracks at 20C and 21(NH)Number/month as a function of max. intensity
Extreme storms
Total nr (90 y)
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R. Met. Soc.15. March 2006
Lennart BengtssonESSC, Reading, University
Tropical vorticesNH(0, 35N, gen. 0, 20N) May through October
Period/number of storms
All storms Intense storms
>8x10-5s-1
20C (obs. forcing)
(1961-1990)x3
277+- 20 41 +- 5
21C ( scen. A1B)
(2071 - 2100)x3
259 +- 19 40 +- 5
ERA-40
1977 - 2002
248 +- 17 26 +- 5
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R. Met. Soc.15. March 2006
Lennart BengtssonESSC, Reading, University
Number of eddies as a function of max. intensity, Atlantic sector: 8-35N, 50-85W
20C
21C
Unit: 10-5s-1
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R. Met. Soc.15. March 2006
Lennart BengtssonESSC, Reading, University
Number of eddies as a function of max. intensity, Eastern Pacific: 0-35N, 90-135W
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R. Met. Soc.15. March 2006
Lennart BengtssonESSC, Reading, University
Number of eddies as a function of max. intensity, Western Pacific: 0-35N, 110-180E
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R. Met. Soc.15. March 2006
Lennart BengtssonESSC, Reading, University
Changes in the NH Tropics
• Slight reduction in the number of tropical storms
• No overall increase in intensity in spite of a SST warming by 2-3°C
• Reduced activity in the Atlantic sector and a southward movement of the east Pacific storm track
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R. Met. Soc.15. March 2006
Lennart BengtssonESSC, Reading, University
Attempts towards an interpretation of the apparent contrary results between GCM results and
theoretical assessments based on local conditions
• Large scale effects:• Increasing SSTs reduce the moist adiabatic lapse rate
(because of more moisture) providing a larger warming in the upper troposphere
• This creates an enhanced northward temperature gradient through the troposphere.
• The effect of this is to increase (through the thermal wind equation) the vertical wind shear particular in the regions where tropical storm amplify
• High vertical wind shear counteracts tropical storm amplification
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R. Met. Soc.15. March 2006
Lennart BengtssonESSC, Reading, University
SST changes 21C - 20 C
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R. Met. Soc.15. March 2006
Lennart BengtssonESSC, Reading, University
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R. Met. Soc.15. March 2006
Lennart BengtssonESSC, Reading, University
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R. Met. Soc.15. March 2006
Lennart BengtssonESSC, Reading, University
Attempts towards an interpretation of the apparent contrary results between GCM results and
theoretical assessments based on local conditions
• Large scale effects:• Increasing SSTs reduce the moist adiabatic lapse rate
(because of more moisture) providing a larger warming in the upper troposphere
• This creates an enhanced northward temperature gradient through the troposphere.
• The effect of this is to increase (through the thermal wind equation) the vertical wind shear particular in the regions where tropical storm amplify
• High vertical wind shear counteracts tropical storm amplification
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R. Met. Soc.15. March 2006
Lennart BengtssonESSC, Reading, University
Tropical storm tracks (modelled and observed)at higher resolution (T159)
Number/month as a function of max. intensity
Comparison with T159 resolution
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R. Met. Soc.15. March 2006
Lennart BengtssonESSC, Reading, University
Extreme tropical storm tracks (modelled and observed))Number/month as a function of max. intensity
Comparison with T159
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R. Met. Soc.15. March 2006
Lennart BengtssonESSC, Reading, University
END