questions to ask before you believe a survey. who carried out the survey? just because a survey on...
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Questions to Ask Before You Believe a Survey
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Who Carried Out The Survey?
• Just because a survey on gun-control was conducted by the NRA doesn’t mean they were biased, but they certainly have reason to be
• Surveys are easier to believe when conducted by a neutral party that’s experienced in conducting samples
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What was the Population?
• Whose opinions were being sought?• If you know the population then you know who
the survey results apply to and who they don’t.• A survey of Hawaiians won’t tell us much about
Indiana’s opinions.
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How was the Sample Selected?• Voluntary Sampling• Convenience Sampling• Probability Sampling– SRS: Simple Random Sample– Stratified
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How was the Sample Selected?Voluntary, Convenience or Probability
• Which has the least bias?• Using a Voluntary Sample, which type of
people are you most likely to get? Least?– A) Strong Positive Opinions– B) Apathetic People– C) Strong Negative Opinions
• What is the difference between SRS & Stratified?
Probability
Most-OverrepresentedLeast-Underrepresented
SRS – Take random people from the populationStratified – Break population into groups and then take an SRS from each group
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How Large was the Sample?• More people = lower variability• If n < 10% of the total population (which it
almost always is) then…
– Population size doesn’t matter if n < 10% of Pop.• How many people do you need to survey to
have an error of 1%?
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What was the Response Rate?• Low Response Rate = High Bias
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How were the Subjects Contacted?
• An internet survey of where people get their news is likely to have a different response than a phone interview.
• Face-to-face interviews are likely to have a higher response rate than phone interviews
• Are there significant portions of the population that suffer from undercoverage because of the survey method?
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When was the Survey Conducted?• Opinions change with time. During the
primary, for awhile the Republicans had a new front runner every month.
• Events influence opinions. Right after 9/11 most Americans would say Muslim Extremists are the greatest threat to their safety while domestic terrorism was the greatest threat right after the Oklahoma City Bombing.
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What were the Exact Questions?
• Biased? – Should we restrict firearm sales to reduce crime?– Should we allow law-abiding citizens to own a gun
to protect their families?• Roanoke College did a survey of Virginians:– 80% believe in life after death– 87% believe in Heaven– Explain how 7% believe there is a Heaven, but no
life after death?