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TRANSCRIPT
Quarterly Trends WebcastMarch 2020
What We’ll Cover1. Global Asset Movement
2. Consultant & Investor Screening Behavior
3. Mandate Trends
4. Finding Opportunities
John MolesphiniGlobal Head of Insights, eVestment
Source: eVestment DatabaseUnderlying This Trends Analysis
25,000+Institutional Strategies
4,000+Asset Management
Firms Reporting Data
895+Consultants & Investors
Conducting Screens
$80TAUM Represented By
Managers Reporting Data
10,000+Manager Screens By Investors & Consultants Each Quarter
60,000+Public Plan Documents
180,000+Product Views By Investors & Consultants Each Quarter
3
Products AUM ($B)
US Equity 3,607 $15,026
US Fixed Income 2,631 $13,611
Global Equity 1,644 $4,040
Global Fixed Income 911 $2,488
EAFE Equity 550 $1,890
ACWI ex-US Equity 391 $1,755
Emerging Markets Equity 691 $1,553
Global Balanced/TAA 503 $1,018
Europe Fixed Income 452 $878
Emerging Markets Fixed Income 414 $844
Source: eVestment AnalyticsUnderlying This Trends Analysis
4
2019 2020 Through February
S&P 500 31.49% -8.27%
Bloomberg Barclays US Aggregate 8.72% 3.76%
MSCI World-GD 28.40% -8.94%
Bloomberg Barclays Global Aggregate 6.84% 1.96%
MSCI EAFE-GD 22.66% -10.92%
MSCI ACWI ex-US-GD 22.13% -10.35%
MSCI EM-GD 18.90% -9.68%
50% MSCI World/50% Citi WGBI 16.57% -3.24%
Bloomberg Barclays Euro Aggregate 4.07% 0.15%
JPM EMBI Global Diversified 15.04% 0.54%
Source: eVestment AnalyticsUnderlying This Trends Analysis
5
Global Asset Movement
State of Long-OnlySource: eVestment Analytics and Asset Flows
-$300,000
-$100,000
$100,000
$300,000
$500,000
$700,000
$900,000
$1,100,000
$0
$5,000,000
$10,000,000
$15,000,000
$20,000,000
$25,000,000
$30,000,000
$35,000,000
Q1 2005 Q1 2006 Q1 2007 Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013 Q1 2014 Q1 2015 Q1 2016 Q1 2017 Q1 2018 Q1 2019
$0
Cumulative Institutional Flows
Reported Institutional AUM
60% MSCI World/40% WGBI
7
Institutional AUM with Flows OverlaySource: eVestment Analytics and Asset Flows
-$3,750,000
-$2,250,000
-$750,000
$750,000
$2,250,000
$3,750,000
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Fixed Income Flows
Equity Flows
BALANCED/MULTI-ASSET
FIXED INCOME
EQUITY
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
Balanced/Multi-Asset Flows
8
Active vs. Passive Cumulative FlowsSource: eVestment Analytics and Asset Flows
-$3,750,000
-$2,750,000
-$1,750,000
-$750,000
$250,000
$1,250,000
$2,250,000
ACTIVE EQUITY
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
ACTIVE FIXED INCOME FLOWS
PASSIVE EQUITY FLOWS
PASSIVE FIXED INCOME FLOWS
ACTIVE EQUITY FLOWS
9
Inflow Drivers – Q4 2019 (Institutional Only)Source: eVestment Analytics and Asset Flows ($M)
$284,555
P r i o r F o u r Q u a r t e r s
$4,798
$10,624
$3,699
-$10,635
-$950
$17,300
$10,298
$4,402
-$3,889$0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000 $50,000 $60,000 $70,000 $80,000 $90,000 $100,000
US Cash Management
US Core Plus Fixed Income
US Core Fixed Income
Global Passive Fixed Income
US Long Duration Fixed Income
Diversified Growth Funds
US Passive Core Fixed Income
US High Yield Municipal Fixed Income
Buy and Maintain Credit Fixed Income
Canadian Core Fixed Income
10
Outflow Drivers – Q4 2019 (Institutional Only)Source: eVestment Analytics and Asset Flows ($M)
-$75,352
P r i o r F o u r Q u a r t e r s
-$35,683
$13,618
-$55,948
$5,671
-$42,742
-$14,052
-$14,144
-$8,200
$23,757-$30,000 -$25,000 -$20,000 -$15,000 -$10,000 -$5,000 $0
US Large Cap Value Equity
Global Large Cap Core Equity
EAFE Passive Equity
US Large Cap Growth Equity
US Short Duration Fixed Income
US Floating-Rate Bank Loan Fixed Income
EAFE Large Cap Core Equity
US Enhanced S&P 500 Equity
Global Emerging Mkts Fixed Income - Local Currency
US Passive S&P 500 Equity
11
Largest Positive Shifts (Institutional Only)Source: eVestment Analytics and Asset Flows ($M)
Q 4 2 0 1 9P R I O R F O U R Q U A R T E R S
-$50,000 -$40,000 -$30,000 -$20,000 -$10,000 $0 $10,000
US Corporate Fixed Income
Global Passive Equity
US Long Duration Fixed Income
US Balanced
Global Emerging Mkts All Cap Core Equity
UK Passive Equity
Global Large Cap Value Equity
Canadian Core Fixed Income
Asia ex-Japan All Cap Value Equity
US Passive Russell 1000 Growth Equity
12
Largest Negative Shifts (Institutional Only)Source: eVestment Analytics and Asset Flows ($M)
Q 4 2 0 1 9 P R I O R F O U R Q U A R T E R S
-$20,000 -$10,000 $0 $10,000 $20,000 $30,000 $40,000
US Enhanced Cash Management
US Passive S&P 500 Equity
EAFE Passive Equity
Global Multi-Sector Fixed Income
Europe Fixed Income - Cash Management
Global Emerging Mkts Passive Equity
US Short Duration Fixed Income
US Passive Large Cap - Other Indices
ACWI ex-US Passive Equity
Europe Fixed Income - Corporate
13
Recent State of the eVestment ESG UniverseSource: eVestment Analytics and Asset Flows
$592B AS OF Q4 2019
AUM FLOWS
$(10,000)
$(5,000)
$-
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
EMEA US APAC Canada
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Consultant & Investor Screening Behavior
Shifts in 150,000+ Consultant & Investor ViewsSource: eVestment Advantage – Q4 2019
-0.1%
-2.3%-0.6%
+1.4%
+1.0%
-0.1%
+0.2%
+0.4%
16
Universes With Highest Average Product Views By Investors & Consultants GloballySource: eVestment Advantage – Q4 2019
0.0 5.0 10.0 15.0 20.0 25.0 30.0 35.0 40.0
eVestment Global Emerging Mkts All Cap Core Equity
eVestment ACWI ex-US Small Cap Growth Equity
eVestment Canadian All Cap Value Equity
eVestment ACWI ex-US Large Cap Value Equity
eVestment Canadian Large Cap Value Equity
eVestment Global Emerging Mkts All Cap Value Equity
eVestment Global Emerging Mkts All Cap Growth Equity
eVestment Global All Cap Growth Equity
eVestment ACWI ex-US All Cap Growth Equity
eVestment EAFE All Cap Value Equity
17
Universes Most Viewed By U.S. Investors & ConsultantsSource: eVestment Advantage – Q4 2019
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000 4500
eVestment Global Large Cap Core Equity
eVestment Global All Cap Core Equity
eVestment US Core Fixed Income
eVestment US Large Cap Core Equity
eVestment Global Emerging Mkts All Cap Core Equity
eVestment US Small Cap Core Equity
eVestment US Small Cap Growth Equity
eVestment US Large Cap Growth Equity
eVestment US Small Cap Value Equity
eVestment US Large Cap Value Equity
18
Universes With Largest Changes In U.S. Investor & Consultant InterestSource: eVestment Advantage – Q4 2019
0.00% 0.10% 0.20% 0.30% 0.40% 0.50% 0.60%
eVestment US Multi-Sector Fixed Income
eVestment Global Tactical Asset Allocation
eVestment Global All Cap Value Equity
eVestment US Long Duration Fixed Income
eVestment Global All Cap Growth Equity
eVestment Global Large Cap Core Equity
eVestment Global All Cap Core Equity
eVestment US Small-Mid Cap Core Equity
eVestment Global Large Cap Growth Equity
eVestment US Core Plus Fixed Income
19
Universes Most Viewed By EMEA Investors & ConsultantsSource: eVestment Advantage – Q4 2019
0 250 500 750 1000 1250
eVestment Global All Cap Value Equity
eVestment Global Emerging Mkts Fixed Income - Hard Currency
eVestment Global Unconstrained Fixed Income
eVestment Global Large Cap Growth Equity
eVestment Diversified Growth Funds
eVestment Global Large Cap Value Equity
eVestment Global Emerging Mkts All Cap Core Equity
eVestment Global All Cap Growth Equity
eVestment Global Large Cap Core Equity
eVestment Global All Cap Core Equity
20
Universes With Largest Changes In EMEA Investor & Consultant InterestSource: eVestment Advantage – Q4 2019
0.00% 0.25% 0.50% 0.75% 1.00%
eVestment Canadian Large Cap Core Equity
eVestment US Securitized Fixed Income - Non-Traditional
eVestment Pan-Europe Small Cap Equity
eVestment US Securitized Fixed Income - Mortgage
eVestment Europe Fixed Income - Corporate
eVestment Global Credit Fixed Income
eVestment US High Yield Fixed Income
eVestment Global High Yield Fixed Income
Fund of Funds - Multi-Strategy
eVestment Global All Cap Growth Equity
21
Universes Most Viewed By APAC Investors & ConsultantsSource: eVestment Advantage – Q4 2019
0 100 200 300 400 500 600 700
eVestment Japan All Cap Value Equity
eVestment US Large Cap Value Equity
eVestment Global All Cap Value Equity
eVestment Global Emerging Mkts All Cap Core Equity
eVestment Global Large Cap Growth Equity
eVestment Global Large Cap Value Equity
eVestment Global All Cap Growth Equity
eVestment Global All Cap Core Equity
eVestment Global Large Cap Core Equity
eVestment Australian Equity Shares - Long Only
22
Universes With Largest Changes In APAC Investor & Consultant InterestSource: eVestment Advantage – Q4 2019
0.00% 0.50% 1.00% 1.50% 2.00% 2.50% 3.00%
eVestment Global Credit Fixed Income
Macro - Multi-Strategy
eVestment US Small-Mid Cap Growth Equity
eVestment US Sector Focus Equity
eVestment Global Small-Mid Cap Equity
eVestment Canadian Large Cap Value Equity
eVestment US Securitized Fixed Income - Non-Traditional
eVestment US Large Cap Value Equity
eVestment Global All Cap Growth Equity
eVestment Australian Equity Shares - Long Only
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Mandate Trends
PUBLIC + ANONYMOUS SEARCHES PUBLIC SEARCHES ONLY
Private Equity 25% 41%
Equity 29% 12%
Fixed Income 14% 6%
Real Estate 13% 16%
HF / Multi Asset 7% 8%
Real Assets 7% 7%
Private Debt 6% 11%
Mandate Searches
9 7 5 5 5 5
Source: eVestment Market LensQ4 2019
25
Finding Opportunities
Largest Allocation Imbalances – Implying Future FlowsSource: eVestment Market Lens ($B)
($50) ($30) ($10) $10 $30 $50 $70
Cash & Overlays
Total Fixed Income
Other Assets
Public Equity
Hedge Funds/Abs. Return - Alt
Private Equity - Alt
Multi-Asset
Natural Resources - RA
Infrastructure - RA
Alternatives (Blend) Alt
Private Markets - Alt
Alternatives
Real Estate - RA
Real Assets (Blend) - RA
Total Real Assets
RA rolls into Total Real Assets
Alt rolls into Alternatives
US Plans
UK Plans
27
$54B USD In Demand For Public EquitySource: eVestment Market Lens
Implied Gross Inflow$53.8B
Implied Gross Inflow (inside allowable range)
Implied Gross Outflow$77.2B
144U.S. public plans under allocated to public equity
226Potential individual mandates
54U.S. equity opportunities
38EM equity opportunities, one over $1B
11Plans widely under-allocated by $18M
-$70
-$50
-$30
-$10
+$10
+$30
+$50
Public Equity
Implied Gross Inflow$53.8 billion
Implied Net Flow-$5.3 billion
Implied Gross Outflow$59.0 billion
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Identify Opportunities By Tracking Under AllocationsSource: eVestment Market Lens
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40%
Targ
et A
lloca
tion
(%)
Current Allocation (%)
U.S. EquityInternational EquityEmerging Markets Equity
Investor: Eastern state public planPlan Size: $10 billion Opportunity: 4.5% underweight US Equity
$460 million potential mandate
29
Claire [email protected]
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