quantification of medicines needs1

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Concepts of Essential Medicines DR. THIDA HLA Deputy Director (Medical Care) Project Manager Myanmar Essential Medicines Project Department of Health

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Page 1: Quantification of medicines needs1

Concepts of Essential Medicines

DR. THIDA HLADeputy Director (Medical Care)

Project ManagerMyanmar Essential Medicines

ProjectDepartment of Health

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Misleading beliefs towards Essential Medicines

• Cheap medicines• Medicines for health center• Medicines for poor people• Medicines for paramedics• Medicines for general practitioners• Medicines for mild diseases, they do not work for severe diseases.• Etc.?

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Essential Medicines

(WHO Definition)

Essential Medicines are "those that

satisfy the priority health care needs of the

majority of the population".

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Therefore should be available at all times, in adequate amounts, in appro- priate dosage forms and at a price that the individual and the community can afford.

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Concepts of Essential Medicines

1. Access- equitable availability and affordability of essential medicines

2. Quality- the quality, safety and efficacy of all medicines

3. Rational Use of Medicines

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Use of a limited number of carefully

selected medicines based on agreed clinical

guidelines leads to a better supply of

medicines, to more rational prescribing and to

lower costs.

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Essential Medicines which are selected on

the basis of safe and cost-effective clinical

guidelines, give better quality of care and better

value for money.

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The procurement of fewer items in larger

quantities results in more price competition and

economics of scale.

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Quantification of medicines needs

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Why we need to quantify the medicines

need?• Armament in health services

• Available of good quality, safe and less expensive medicines all the time

• Part of a sequence of inter- dependent steps in the medicines supply management system

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Effective Medicines Supply Management

• Main components areSelectionQuantificationProcurement DistributionUse

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Quantification

• Imbalance in quantification could lead to –High inventory–Stock outs

• Stock outs lead to –Local purchases–Poor image of the facility

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Methods of quantification

1. The patient morbidity-standard treatment method(morbidity method)

2. The adjusted consumption method

(consumption method)

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Comparisons of Two Methods

Method

Advantages Disadvantages

Consu- mption

-Morbidity data not required

-Requires less detailed calculations

-Difficult to review prescribing habits

-Difficult to get consumption data for new facilities

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Comparisons of Two Methods

Method

Advantages Disadvantages

Consu- mption

-Good for hospitals (because Treatment is more complex)

-Does not encourage good morbidity recording

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Comparisons of Two Methods(cont’d)

Method

Advantages Disadvantages

Consu- mption

-Reliable if consumption is well recorded and stable

-Unreliable if there have been long stock-outs

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Comparisons of Two Methods

Method

Advantages Disadvantages

Morbi-dity

-Consumption data not required

-Good for new services

-More detailed calculation required

-Morbidity/STG required

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Comparisons of Two Methods

Method

Advantages Disadvantages

Morbi-dity

-Based on rational prescribing

-Motivate morbidity recording

-Results may differ from actual supply

-Estimate only the quantities needed to dispense to patients

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The patient morbidity – Standard treatment

method

• This method starts from two sets of data:The number of episodes of

each health problem treated by the type or types of facilities

Standard treatment schedules agreed for each health problem

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Quantity of drug specified for a standard course of treatment

No. of treatment episodes of the health problem

Total quantity of a drug required for a given health problem

X =

This calculation is repeated for each health problem and its

corresponding drugs

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• Calculate the quantity of each drug required in the next procurement period

• Adjust for expected changes in consumption pattern

• Adjust for losses• Compile decentralized

quantifications (if applicable)• Estimate costs for each drug and

total costs• Compare total costs with budget and

make adjustments

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Calculate the consumption of each drug

Opening Stock

Drugs Received

Closing stock

Consumption

+= -

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Adjust for avoidable wastage and losses

• Drugs destroyed by damp, time expired, batch seized for poor quality, unaccounted

• Should not exceed 5-10% in a well run pharmacy or store

Avoidable wastage

-Recorded consumption

=Consumption adjusted for avoidable wastage

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Estimating the safety stock

• Safety stock is the quantity of stock used on average during the average lead time from the current supplier.

For calculation:SS = LT X CA

Where SS=Safety stock

LT=Lead Time

CA=Average Consumption

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