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Daily Technical Trader – Qatar

Tuesday, 26 April 2016

Today’s Coverage

Ticker Price Target

MARK 34.00 33.35

QIGD 53.00 55.50

QSE Index

Level % Ch. Vol. (mn)

Last 10,184.51 -0.76 3.9

Resistance/Support

Levels 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 10,250 10,400 10,500

Support 10,100 10,000 9,800

QSE Index Commentary

Overview:

The QSE Index dipped to an intraday

support that could act as a buying base.

Even though the chance of a correction is

high at this point, we reiterate the notion

that the Index remains positive given it

stays above the 10,000 level.

Expected Resistance Level: 10,250

Expected Support Level: 10,100

QSE Index (Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

QE Summary

Market Indicators 25 Apr 24 Apr %Ch.

Value Traded (QR mn) 359.2 282.8 27.0

Ex. Mkt. Cap. (QR bn) 545.2 550.8 -1.0

Volume (mn) 9.8 9.8 0.0

Number of Trans. 5,615 4,388 28.0

Companies Traded 42 38 10.5

Market Breadth 8:32 8:29 –

QE Indices

Market Indices Close 1D% RSI

Total Return 16,477.85 -0.8 54.8

All Share Index 2,839.87 -1.0 57.4

Banks 2,737.00 -0.6 50.9

Industrials 3,123.47 -1.9 58.9

Transportation 2,552.44 -0.8 62.2

Real Estate 2,581.13 -1.0 60.8

Insurance 4,357.95 0.1 41.0

Telecoms 1,147.14 -0.2 51.6

Consumer Goods 6,502.66 -2.0 53.9

Al Rayan Islamic 3,959.00 -1.7 55.5

RSI 14 (Over Bought)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

MPHC 19.92 -4.2 72.2

RSI 14 (Over Sold)

Ticker Close 1D% RSI

QSE Index (30min)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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MARK

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 34.00 -2.02 856,512

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 35.00 36.00 36.60

Support 34.00 33.35 32.50

Commentary

Overview:

On the 21st

of this month, we sent a buy

recommendation on the bank conditioned

by a price breakout above the QR35.00

level. It did not break, thus condition has

not been met. On the contrary, the price

has been heading down to a crucial

support level around QR34.00. If the name

does not sustain its current levels, a price

drop seems to be probable.

Expected Price Retreat: QR33.35 –

QR32.50

A price breach below QR34.00 triggers the

sell recommendation.

(Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

(Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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QIGD

Price % Ch. Volume

Last 53.00 1.34 299,537

Resistance/Support

Levels (QR) 1st

2nd

3rd

Resistance 53.30 55.50 57.00

Support 50.00 49.00 46.70

Commentary

Overview:

We reiterate the buy call we sent on the

name on the 20th

of this month. The price

action seen suggests a possible

continuation of the current uptick in the

short run. Risk-averse traders who

adopted our recent buy call may remain

with our previously mentioned first price

target at QR54.00. For the rest, we update

our expected target prices as below.

Expected Target Price: QR55.50 – QR57.00

A price breakaway above QR53.30

triggers the buy recommendation.

Suggested Stop-Loss Price: QR50.00

(Daily)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

(Hourly)

Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research

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Intraday Fibonacci Support and Resistance Levels Daily Moving Averages Support Levels Resistance Levels

Ticker Close 3rd

2nd

1st

Pivot 1st

2nd

3rd

50 SMA 100 SMA 200 SMA

QSE Index 10,184.51 10,048.78 10,102.45 10,135.61 10,189.28 10,242.95 10,276.11 10,329.78 10,173.57 9,941.92 10,705.37

Total Return 16,477.85 16,258.26 16,345.10 16,398.75 16,485.58 16,572.42 16,626.07 16,712.90 16,239.51 15,669.89 16,748.26

All Share 2,839.87 2,800.45 2,816.99 2,827.21 2,843.75 2,860.29 2,870.51 2,887.05 2,786.25 2,686.85 2,872.33

Al Rayan Islamic 3,959.00 3,889.15 3,923.10 3,944.07 3,978.03 4,011.98 4,032.95 4,066.91 3,858.80 3,698.22 4,042.12

Banks & Financials Services

MARK 34.00 33.57 33.81 33.97 34.22 34.46 34.62 34.87 35.43 35.13 39.00

CBQK 39.40 37.67 38.16 38.47 38.97 39.46 39.77 40.27 42.24 42.57 48.54

DHBK 37.00 36.53 36.67 36.75 36.88 37.02 37.10 37.23 38.54 39.65 45.08

QIBK 99.80 98.60 98.98 99.22 99.60 99.98 100.22 100.60 101.47 100.37 107.08

QIIK 64.00 63.13 63.63 63.94 64.43 64.93 65.24 65.73 68.18 65.58 70.48

Insurance

QATI 80.80 79.87 80.21 80.42 80.77 81.11 81.32 81.67 81.17 74.91 77.71

Consumer Goods & Services

MCGS 92.70 87.17 89.38 90.75 92.97 95.18 96.55 98.77 108.76 107.32 136.73

Industrials

IQCD 103.00 101.07 101.79 102.24 102.97 103.69 104.14 104.87 106.47 104.08 114.81

QEWS 207.90 207.30 207.49 207.61 207.80 207.99 208.11 208.30 201.23 200.68 207.11

GISS 34.50 33.33 33.89 34.23 34.78 35.34 35.68 36.23 35.85 40.60 52.37

QIGD 53.00 50.80 51.49 51.91 52.60 53.29 53.71 54.40 44.42 38.62 42.60

Real Estate

BRES 33.25 32.62 32.92 33.11 33.42 33.72 33.91 34.22 35.88 36.05 40.62

UDCD 19.02 18.79 18.92 18.99 19.11 19.24 19.31 19.43 20.22 19.80 21.88

ERES 18.84 18.23 18.49 18.65 18.92 19.18 19.34 19.61 17.02 15.88 17.06

MRDS 14.62 14.16 14.38 14.51 14.73 14.95 15.08 15.30 13.10 12.74 14.28

Telecommunication

ORDS 89.90 86.10 87.55 88.45 89.90 91.35 92.25 93.70 88.88 81.87 78.87

VFQS 12.09 11.70 11.89 12.01 12.19 12.38 12.50 12.68 11.79 11.54 12.91

Transportation

QGTS 23.69 23.30 23.41 23.48 23.59 23.70 23.77 23.88 23.37 22.74 22.87

QNNS 90.00 89.80 89.91 89.99 90.10 90.21 90.29 90.40 93.00 92.34 94.93 Source: Bloomberg, QNBFS Research; Note: Numbers in Italics denote moving averages that are above the given index level/stock price

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Definitions:

Candlestick: A chart that displays the high, low, opening and closing prices for a security in a single period. The body of the candle is made up by the opening and

the closing prices, i.e., the taller the body the greater the range between these two prices and vice versa. A colored candle denotes a closing price that is lower

than the opening price, while a white candle shows the opposite. The candlestick's shadows or wicks show the period's high and low prices and how they

compare to the opening and closing price. In general, the shape of the candle will vary upon the positions of the period's high, low, opening and closing prices.

Support: A level that could cause more buyers to step in in order to prevent the security from falling or causing the security price to head higher.

Resistance: An inverse of a support level. A resistance area or level could cause more sellers to step in in order to prevent the security from rising or causing the

security price to head lower.

SMA (Simple Moving Average): Is an arithmetic average, which calculates the average price of a security over a defined number of periods and is thus considered

a lagging indicator. SMAs used in our analysis refer to closing prices. In general, SMAs serve many purposes, such as a smoothing tool, an indicative price

direction and potential support/resistance levels.

Market Breadth: Breadth indicates the number of securities that have closed higher vs. the number of decliners in a particular exchange.

MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Is a trading indicator, which shows changes in the strength, direction, momentum and duration of a trend in

a stock's price through a collection of three time series calculated from historical closing price data.

RSI (Relative Strength Index): Is a momentum indicator that compares a security’s price gains to its losses for a predetermined number of periods (we generally

use 14 periods). The RSI attempts to point out how a security, in relative terms, is in the overbought/oversold zone. Securities with a RSI above 70 could be

considered as overbought, and below 30 could be considered as oversold.

Pattern/Formation: Is a graphical presentation of a security’s price activity over a certain period of time. Formations come in different shapes (such as, head &

shoulders, triangles, flags, and so on). They can be used to identify potential trends, reversal of trends, price targets, entry and exit points, etc.

Fibonacci Retracements: Are horizontal lines that indicate expected areas of support/resistance for a security based on a predetermined price movement. These

levels are usually indicated by Fibonacci ratios of 23.6%, 38.2%, 50.0%, 61.8% and 100% from that particular movement.

Fibonacci Pivot and Intra-day Support/Resistance: A Pivot Point is generally used to formulate expected future support/resistance levels. From the base Pivot

Point, Fibonacci multiples of the high-low differential are added to form resistance levels and subtracted to form support levels.

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Contacts:

Zaid al-Nafoosi, CMT, CFTe Saugata Sarkar Shahan Keushgerian

Senior Research Analyst Head of Research Senior Research Analyst

Tel: (+974) 4476 6535 Tel: (+974) 4476 6534 Tel: (+974) 4476 6509

zaid.alnafoosi@qnbfs.com.qa saugata.sarkar@qnbfs.com.qa shahan.keushgerian@qnbfs.com.qa

QNB Financial Services SPC

Contact Center: (+974) 4476 6666

PO Box 24025

Doha, Qatar

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time only. It is not an offer, promotion or recommendation to buy or sell securities or other investments, nor is it intended to constitute legal, tax, accounting, or financial advice. QNBFS accepts no

liability whatsoever for any direct or indirect losses arising from use of this report. Any investment decision should depend on the individual circumstances of the investor and be based on specifically

engaged investment advice. We therefore strongly advise potential investors to seek independent professional advice before making any investment decision. Although the information in this report

has been obtained from sources that QNBFS believes to be reliable, we have not independently verified such information and it may not be accurate or complete. QNBFS does not make any

representations or warranties as to the accuracy and completeness of the information it may contain, and declines any liability in that respect. For reports dealing with Technical Analysis, expressed

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