q4 h2 1 h2 1 h2 1 h2 1 h2 1 h2 1 q2 q3 q4 1 q2 q3 q4 ...lending survey • august 2015 4 chart 5:...
TRANSCRIPT
MAGYAR NEMZETI BANK
1 LENDING SURVEY • AUGUST 2015
ANNEX 1: CHARTS ON DEVELOPMENTS IN LOAN PORTFOLIOS AND ANSWERS TO THE
QUESTIONNAIRE
LENDING TO HOUSEHOLDS
Chart 1 Outstanding amount of housing loans and the market share of banks completing the questionnaire
Note: The number and scope of banks varied during the half-year periods under review (e.g. as a result of mergers and the inclusion of new banks). As of 2009, stock data also include those for credit institutions and branches.
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
20
03
H1
H2
20
04
H1
H2
20
05
H1
H2
20
06
H1
H2
20
07
H1
H2
20
08
H1
H2
20
09
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
10
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
11
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
12
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
13
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
14
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
15
Q1
Q2
per centHUF billion
Total housing loan portfolio
Housing loan portfolio of the respondents
Market share of the respondents (right-hand scale)
MAGYAR NEMZETI BANK
LENDING SURVEY • AUGUST 2015 2
Chart 2 Outstanding amount of consumer loans and the market share of banks completing the questionnaire
Note: The number and scope of banks varied during the half-year periods under review. The chart only plots market shares of the banks surveyed; it does not plot market shares of financial enterprises. As of 2009, stock data also include those for credit institutions and branches.
60
65
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
40002
00
3 H
1H
22
00
4 H
1H
22
00
5 H
1H
22
00
6 H
1H
22
00
7 H
1H
22
00
8 H
1H
22
00
9 Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
42
01
0 Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
42
01
1 Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
42
01
2 Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
42
01
3 Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
42
01
4 Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
42
01
5 Q
1Q
2
per centHUF billion
Total consumer loan portfolio
Consumer loan portfolio of the respondents
Market share of the respondents (right-hand scale)
MAGYAR NEMZETI BANK
3 LENDING SURVEY • AUGUST 2015
Chart 3 Willingness of banks to extend housing loans and consumer loans (net percentage balance of respondents
reporting increased/decreased credit availability weighted by market share)
Chart 4 Credit conditions in the housing loan and consumer loan markets
(net percentage balance of respondents tightening/easing credit standards weighted by market share)
Note: The magnitude of tightening/easing is not shown in the chart.
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
1002
00
9 Q
1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
10
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
11
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
12
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
13
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
14
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
15
Q1
Q2
Q3
-Q4
(e.
)
per centper cent
Consumer loans Housing loans
INC
REA
SED
ECR
EASE
INC
REA
SED
ECR
EASE
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
20
09
Q1
Q3
20
10
Q1
Q3
20
11
Q1
Q3
20
12
Q1
Q3
20
13
Q1
Q3
20
14
Q1
Q3
20
15
Q1
Q3
-Q4
(e.
)
per cent
Housing loans
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
20
09
Q1
Q3
20
10
Q1
Q3
20
11
Q1
Q3
20
12
Q1
Q3
20
13
Q1
Q3
20
14
Q1
Q3
20
15
Q1
Q3
-Q4
(e.
)
per cent
Consumer loans
TIG
HTE
NIN
GLO
OSE
NIN
G
MAGYAR NEMZETI BANK
LENDING SURVEY • AUGUST 2015 4
Chart 5: Credit conditions in the housing loan market – non-pricing conditions
(net percentage balance of respondents tightening/easing credit conditions weighted by market share)
Note: The magnitude of tightening/easing is not shown in the chart.
Chart 6: Credit conditions in the housing loan market – pricing conditions
(net percentage balance of respondents tightening/easing credit conditions weighted by market share)
Note: The magnitude of tightening/easing is not shown in the chart.
-100-80-60-40-20
020406080
100
20
09
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
10
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
11
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
12
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
13
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
14
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
15
Q1
Q2
Q3
-Q4
(e.
)
per cent
Maximum maturity
-100-80-60-40-20
020406080
100
20
09
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
10
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
11
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
12
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
13
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
14
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
15
Q1
Q2
Q3
-Q4
(e.
)
per cent
Required credit score
-100-80-60-40-20
020406080
100
20
09
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
10
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
11
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
12
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
13
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
14
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
15
Q1
Q2
Q3
-Q4
(e.
)
per cent
Maximum loan-to-value ratio
-100-80-60-40-20
020406080
100
20
09
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
10
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
11
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
12
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
13
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
14
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
15
Q1
Q2
Q3
-Q4
(e.
)
per cent
Maximum monthly installment to income
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
20
09
Q1
Q3
20
10
Q1
Q3
20
11
Q1
Q3
20
12
Q1
Q3
20
13
Q1
Q3
20
14
Q1
Q3
20
15
Q1
Q3
-Q4
(e.
)
per cent
Spread on average loans
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
20
09
Q1
Q3
20
10
Q1
Q3
20
11
Q1
Q3
20
12
Q1
Q3
20
13
Q1
Q3
20
14
Q1
Q3
20
15
Q1
Q3
-Q4
(e.
)
per cent
Loan origination fees
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
20
09
Q1
Q3
20
10
Q1
Q3
20
11
Q1
Q3
20
12
Q1
Q3
20
13
Q1
Q3
20
14
Q1
Q3
20
15
Q1
Q3
-Q4
(e.
)
per cent
Premium on riskier loans
MAGYAR NEMZETI BANK
5 LENDING SURVEY • AUGUST 2015
Chart 7 Factors contributing to changes in credit conditions in the case of housing loans
(net percentage balance of banks indicating a contribution of individual factors to tightening or easing weighted
by market share)
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Changes in the creditworthiness
of clients
Changes in bank’s current
or expected capital position
Changes in bank’s current or
expected liquidity position
Economic outlook Outlook of housing market
Competitivesituation
with other banksor non-banks
Changes in risk tolerance
Market sharegoals
per cent
2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2
2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3-Q4 (e.)
Co
ntr
ibu
tin
g to
tig
hte
nin
gC
on
trib
uti
ng
to e
asin
g
MAGYAR NEMZETI BANK
LENDING SURVEY • AUGUST 2015 6
Chart 8 Perceived demand for loans in the household segment
(net percentage balance of respondents reporting increase/decrease in demand weighted by market share)
Chart 9/1 Credit conditions in the consumer loan market –non-pricing conditions
(net percentage balance of respondents tightening/easing credit conditions weighted by market share)
Note: The magnitude of tightening/easing is not shown in the chart.
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
1002
00
9 Q
1
Q3
20
10
Q1
Q3
20
11
Q1
Q3
20
12
Q1
Q3
20
13
Q1
Q3
20
14
Q1
Q3
20
15
Q1
Q3
-Q4
(e.
)
per cent
Housing loans
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
20
09
Q1
Q3
20
10
Q1
Q3
20
11
Q1
Q3
20
12
Q1
Q3
20
13
Q1
Q3
20
14
Q1
Q3
20
15
Q1
Q3
-Q4
(e.
)
per cent
Consumer loans
WEA
KER
STR
ON
GER
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
20
09
Q1
Q3
20
10
Q1
Q3
20
11
Q1
Q3
20
12
Q1
Q3
20
13
Q1
Q3
20
14
Q1
Q3
20
15
Q1
Q3
-Q4
(e.
)
per cent
Maximum loan-to-value ratio
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
20
09
Q1
Q3
20
10
Q1
Q3
20
11
Q1
Q3
20
12
Q1
Q3
20
13
Q1
Q3
20
14
Q1
Q3
20
15
Q1
Q3
-Q4
(e.
)
per cent
Required credit score
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
20
09
Q1
Q3
20
10
Q1
Q3
20
11
Q1
Q3
20
12
Q1
Q3
20
13
Q1
Q3
20
14
Q1
Q3
20
15
Q1
Q3
-Q4
(e.
)
per cent
Maximum monthly installment to income
MAGYAR NEMZETI BANK
7 LENDING SURVEY • AUGUST 2015
Chart 9/2 Credit conditions in the consumer loan market –non-pricing conditions
(net percentage balance of respondents tightening/easing credit conditions weighted by market share)
Note: The magnitude of tightening/easing is not shown in the chart.
Chart 10 Credit conditions in the consumer loan market – pricing conditions
(net percentage balance of respondents tightening/easing credit conditions weighted by market share)
Note: The magnitude of tightening/easing is not shown in the chart.
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
1002
00
9 Q
1
Q3
20
10
Q1
Q3
20
11
Q1
Q3
20
12
Q1
Q3
20
13
Q1
Q3
20
14
Q1
Q3
20
15
Q1
Q3
-Q4
(e.
)
per cent
Maximum maturity
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
20
09
Q1
Q3
20
10
Q1
Q3
20
11
Q1
Q3
20
12
Q1
Q3
20
13
Q1
Q3
20
14
Q1
Q3
20
15
Q1
Q3
-Q4
(e.
)
per cent
Minimum downpayment
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
20
09
Q1
Q3
20
10
Q1
Q3
201
1 Q
1Q
32
01
2 Q
1Q
32
01
3 Q
1Q
32
01
4 Q
1Q
32
01
5 Q
1Q
3-Q
4 (
e.)
per cent
Spread on average loans
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
20
09
Q1
Q3
20
10
Q1
Q3
20
11
Q1
Q3
201
2 Q
1
Q3
20
13
Q1
Q3
20
14
Q1
Q3
20
15
Q1
Q3
-Q4
(e.
)
per cent
Loan origination fees
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
20
09
Q1
Q3
20
10
Q1
Q3
20
11
Q1
Q3
20
12
Q1
Q3
20
13
Q1
Q3
20
14
Q1
Q3
20
15
Q1
Q3
-Q4
(e.
)
per cent
Premium on riskier loans
MAGYAR NEMZETI BANK
LENDING SURVEY • AUGUST 2015 8
Chart 11 Factors contributing to changes in credit conditions in the case of consumer loans
(net percentage balance of banks indicating a contribution of individual factors to tightening or easing weighted
by market share)
Chart 12 Willingness to lend and credit conditions for different consumer loan products
(net percentage balance of respondents weighted by market share)
Note: The magnitude of tightening/easing is not shown in the chart.
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Changes in the creditworthiness
of clients
Changes in bank’s current
or expected capital position
Changes in bank’s current or
expected liquidity position
Economic outlook Outlook of housing market
Competitivesituation
with other banksor non-banks
Changes in risk tolerance
Market sharegoals
per cent
2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2
2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3-Q4 (e.)
Contr
ibuti
ng
to t
ighte
nin
gContr
ibuti
ng t
o e
asi
ng
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Credit availability2015 Q2
Credit availabilty(expected) for 2015
Q3-Q4
Credit conditions2015 Q2
Credit conditions(expected) for 2015
Q3-Q4
per centper cent
Home equity loans Other Vehicle-financing loans
INC
REA
SED
ECR
EASE
TIGH
TENIN
GLO
OSEN
ING
MAGYAR NEMZETI BANK
9 LENDING SURVEY • AUGUST 2015
Chart 13 Credit conditions for different consumer loan products (2015 Q2)
(net percentage balance of respondents tightening/easing credit conditions weighted by market share)
Note: The magnitude of tightening/easing is not shown in the chart.
Chart 14 Demand for different consumer loan products (net percentage balance of banks reporting increase or
decrease weighted by market share)
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100M
axim
um
mat
uri
ty
Loan
ori
gin
atio
n f
ees Sp
read
Pre
miu
m o
n r
iski
er lo
ans
Min
imu
m d
ow
np
aym
ent
Max
imu
mLT
V r
atio
Max
imu
m r
atio
of
rep
aym
ent
/ in
com
e
Req
uir
ed c
red
it s
core
per cent
Home equity loans Other Vehicle-financing loans
TIGH
TENIN
GLO
OSEN
ING
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Perceived demandin 2015 Q2
Anticipated demandfor 2015 Q3-Q4
per cent
Home equity loans Other Vehicle-financing loans
INCREASE
DECREASE
MAGYAR NEMZETI BANK
LENDING SURVEY • AUGUST 2015 10
Chart 15 Default rate of loans to households and loss given default
(net percentage balance of banks reporting increase or decrease weighted by market share)
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Default rate in 2015Q2
Default rateanticipation for 2015
Q3-Q4
Loss given defaultin 2015 Q2
Loss given defaultanticipation
for 2015 Q3-Q4
per cent
Housing loans Consumer loans Home equity loans Other Vehicle-financing loans
DETER
IOR
ATIO
NIM
PR
OV
EMEN
T
MAGYAR NEMZETI BANK
11 LENDING SURVEY • AUGUST 2015
LENDING TO THE CORPORATE SECTOR
Chart 16 Outstanding amount of corporate loans and the market share of banks completing the questionnaire
Note: As of 2009, stock data also include those for credit institutions and branches.
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
0
1 000
2 000
3 000
4 000
5 000
6 000
7 000
8 000
9 000
10 000
20
03
H1
H2
20
04
H1
H2
20
05
H1
H2
20
06
H1
H2
20
07
H1
H2
20
08
H1
H2
20
09
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
10
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
11
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
12
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
13
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
14
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
15
Q1
Q2
per centHUF billion
Total corporate loan portfolioCorporate loan portfolio of the respondentsMarket share of the respondents (right-hand scale)
MAGYAR NEMZETI BANK
LENDING SURVEY • AUGUST 2015 12
Chart 17 Outstanding amount of commercial real estate loans and the market share of banks completing the
questionnaire
Note: As of 2009, stock data also include those for credit institutions and branches. As of 2011 the data includes loans for
commercial real estate purchase, not just for development.
80
82
84
86
88
90
92
94
96
98
100
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1800
2000
20
03
H1
H2
20
04
H1
H2
20
05
H1
H2
20
06
H1
H2
20
07
H1
H2
20
08
H1
H2
20
09
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
10
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
11
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
12
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
13
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
14
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
15
Q1
Q2
per centHUF billion
Total commercial real estate loan portfolio
Commercial real estate loan portfolio of the respondents
Market share of the respondents (right-hand scale)
MAGYAR NEMZETI BANK
13 LENDING SURVEY • AUGUST 2015
Chart 18 Willingness of banks to extend corporate loans
(net percentage balance of respondents reporting increased/decreased credit availability weighted by market
share)
Chart 19 Credit conditions by corporate category and for commercial real estate loans
(net percentage balance of respondents reporting tightening/easing weighted by market share)
Note: The magnitude of tightening/easing is not shown in the chart.
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
20
09
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
10
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
11
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
12
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
13
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
14
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
20
15
Q1
Q2
Q3
-Q4
(e.
)
per centper cent
Non-financial corporations Large and medium-sized enterprisesSmall and micro-sized enterprises Commercial real estate
INCREASE
DECREASE
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
20
09
Q1
Q3
20
10
Q1
Q3
20
11
Q1
Q3
20
12
Q1
Q3
20
13
Q1
Q3
20
14
Q1
Q3
20
15
Q1
Q3
-Q4
(e.
)
per cent
Non-financial corporations
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
20
09
Q1
Q3
20
10
Q1
Q3
20
11
Q1
Q3
20
12
Q1
Q3
20
13
Q1
Q3
20
14
Q1
Q3
20
15
Q1
Q3
-Q4
(e.
)
per cent
Commercial real estate
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
20
09
Q1
Q3
20
10
Q1
Q3
20
11
Q1
Q3
20
12
Q1
Q3
20
13
Q1
Q3
20
14
Q1
Q3
20
15
Q1
Q3
-Q4
(e.
)
per cent
Small- and micro-sized enterprises
LOO
SEN
ING
TIG
HTE
NIN
G
MAGYAR NEMZETI BANK
LENDING SURVEY • AUGUST 2015 14
Chart 20 Credit conditions in the corporate segment (net percentage balance of respondents reporting
tightening/easing weighted by market share)
Note: The magnitude of tightening/easing is not shown in the chart.
Chart 21 Maximum maturities by corporate category
(net percentage balance of respondents reporting tightening/easing weighted by market share)
Note: The magnitude of tightening/easing is not shown in the chart.
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100M
axim
um
mat
uri
ty
Max
imu
m s
ize
of
cre
dit
lin
e
Co
sts
of
cred
it li
ne
Spre
ad
Pre
miu
ms
char
ged
on
ris
kier
loan
s
Loan
co
ven
ants
Co
llate
ral
req
uir
emen
ts
Min
imu
m r
equ
ire
d c
red
it s
core
Mo
nit
ori
ng/
dat
a r
epo
rtin
g re
qu
irem
ent
per cent
2015 Q2 2015 Q3-Q4 (e.)
TIGH
TENIN
GLO
OSEN
ING
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
20
09
Q1
Q3
201
0 Q
1Q
32
01
1 Q
1Q
32
01
2 Q
1Q
32
01
3 Q
1Q
32
01
4 Q
1Q
32
01
5 Q
1Q
3-Q
4 (
e.)
per cent
Non-financial corporations
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
20
09
Q1
Q3
20
10
Q1
Q3
20
11
Q1
Q3
20
12
Q1
Q3
201
3 Q
1Q
32
01
4 Q
1Q
32
01
5 Q
1Q
3-Q
4 (
e.)
per cent
Smalll- and micro-sized enterprises
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
20
09
Q1
Q3
20
10
Q1
Q3
20
11
Q1
Q3
20
12
Q1
Q3
20
13
Q1
Q3
20
14
Q1
Q3
20
15
Q1
Q3
-Q4
(e.
)
per cent
Large- and medium-sized enterprises
TIG
HTE
NIN
GLO
OSE
NIN
G
MAGYAR NEMZETI BANK
15 LENDING SURVEY • AUGUST 2015
Chart 22 Maximum size of loans/credit lines by corporate category
(net percentage balance of respondents reporting tightening/easing weighted by market share)
Note: The magnitude of tightening/easing is not shown in the chart.
Chart 23 Fee(s) charged for extending loans/credit lines by corporate category
(net percentage balance of respondents reporting tightening/easing weighted by market share)
Note: The magnitude of tightening/easing is not shown in the chart.
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
1002
00
9 Q
1Q
32
01
0 Q
1Q
32
01
1 Q
1Q
32
01
2 Q
1Q
32
01
3 Q
1Q
32
014
Q1
Q3
20
15
Q1
Q3
-Q4
(e.
)
per cent
Non-financial corporations
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
200
9 Q
1Q
32
01
0 Q
1Q
32
01
1 Q
1Q
32
01
2 Q
1Q
32
01
3 Q
1Q
32
01
4 Q
1Q
32
01
5 Q
1Q
3-Q
4 (
e.)
per cent
Small- and micro-sized enterprises
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
20
09
Q1
Q3
20
10
Q1
Q3
20
11
Q1
Q3
20
12
Q1
Q3
20
13
Q1
Q3
20
14
Q1
Q3
20
15
Q1
Q3
-Q4
(e.
)
per cent
Large- and medium-sized enterprises
TIG
HTE
NIN
GLO
OSE
NIN
G
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
20
09
Q1
Q3
20
10
Q1
Q3
20
11
Q1
Q3
20
12
Q1
Q3
20
13
Q1
Q3
20
14
Q1
Q3
20
15
Q1
Q3
-Q4
(e.
)
per cent
Non-financial corporations
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
20
09
Q1
Q3
20
10
Q1
Q3
20
11
Q1
Q3
20
12
Q1
Q3
20
13
Q1
Q3
20
14
Q1
Q3
20
15
Q1
Q3
-Q4
(e.
)
per cent
Small- and micro-sized enterprises
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
20
09
Q1
Q3
20
10
Q1
Q3
20
11
Q1
Q3
20
12
Q1
Q3
20
13
Q1
Q3
20
14
Q1
Q3
20
15
Q1
Q3
-Q4
(e.
)
per cent
Large- and medium-sized enterprises
TIG
HTE
NIN
GLO
OSE
NIN
G
MAGYAR NEMZETI BANK
LENDING SURVEY • AUGUST 2015 16
Chart 24 Spread between lending rates and cost of funds by corporate category
(net percentage balance of respondents reporting tightening/easing weighted by market share)
Note: The magnitude of tightening/easing is not shown in the chart.
Chart 25 Premium on higher risk loans by corporate sector
(net percentage balance of respondents reporting tightening/easing weighted by market share)
Note: The magnitude of tightening/easing is not shown in the chart.
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
20
09
Q1
Q3
20
10
Q1
Q3
20
11
Q1
Q3
20
12
Q1
Q3
20
13
Q1
Q3
20
14
Q1
Q3
20
15
Q1
Q3
-Q4
(e.
)
per cent
Non-financial corporations
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
20
09
Q1
Q3
20
10
Q1
Q3
201
1 Q
1Q
32
01
2 Q
1Q
32
01
3 Q
1Q
32
01
4 Q
1Q
32
01
5 Q
1Q
3-Q
4 (
e.)
per cent
Small- and micro-sized enterprises
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
20
09
Q1
Q3
20
10
Q1
Q3
20
11
Q1
Q3
20
12
Q1
Q3
20
13
Q1
Q3
20
14
Q1
Q3
20
15
Q1
Q3
-Q4
(e.
)
per cent
Large- and medium-sized enterprises
TIG
HTE
NIN
GLO
OSE
NIN
G
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
20
09
Q1
Q3
20
10
Q1
Q3
20
11
Q1
Q3
20
12
Q1
Q3
20
13
Q1
Q3
201
4 Q
1Q
32
01
5 Q
1Q
3-Q
4 (
e.)
per cent
Non-financial corporations
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
20
09
Q1
Q3
20
10
Q1
Q3
20
11
Q1
Q3
20
12
Q1
Q3
201
3 Q
1
Q3
20
14
Q1
Q3
20
15
Q1
Q3
-Q4
(e.
)
per cent
Small- and micro-sized enterprises
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
20
09
Q1
Q3
20
10
Q1
Q3
20
11
Q1
Q3
20
12
Q1
Q3
20
13
Q1
Q3
20
14
Q1
Q3
20
15
Q1
Q3
-Q4
(e.
)
per cent
Large- and medium-sized enterprises
TIG
HTE
NIN
GLO
OSE
NIN
G
MAGYAR NEMZETI BANK
17 LENDING SURVEY • AUGUST 2015
Chart 26 Covenant requirements by corporate category
(net percentage balance of respondents reporting tightening/easing weighted by market share)
Note: The magnitude of tightening/easing is not shown in the chart.
Chart 27 Collateral requirements by corporate category
(net percentage balance of respondents reporting tightening/easing weighted by market share)
Note: The magnitude of tightening/easing is not shown in the chart.
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
1002
00
9 Q
1Q
32
01
0 Q
1Q
32
01
1 Q
1Q
32
01
2 Q
1Q
32
01
3 Q
1Q
32
01
4 Q
1Q
32
01
5 Q
1Q
3-Q
4 (
e.)
per cent
Non-financial corporations
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
20
09
Q1
Q3
20
10
Q1
Q3
20
11
Q1
Q3
20
12
Q1
Q3
20
13
Q1
Q3
201
4 Q
1Q
32
01
5 Q
1Q
3-Q
4 (
e.)
per cent
Small- and micro-sized enterprises
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
20
09
Q1
Q3
20
10
Q1
Q3
20
11
Q1
Q3
20
12
Q1
Q3
20
13
Q1
Q3
20
14
Q1
Q3
20
15
Q1
Q3
-Q4
(e.
)
per cent
Large- and medium-sized enterprises
TIG
HTE
NIN
GLO
OSE
NIN
G
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
20
09
Q1
Q3
20
10
Q1
Q3
20
11
Q1
Q3
20
12
Q1
Q3
20
13
Q1
Q3
20
14
Q1
Q3
20
15
Q1
Q3
-Q4
(e.
)
per cent
Non-financial corporations
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
20
09
Q1
Q3
20
10
Q1
Q3
20
11
Q1
Q3
20
12
Q1
Q3
20
13
Q1
Q3
20
14
Q1
Q3
20
15
Q1
Q3
-Q4
(e.
)per cent
Small- and micro-sized enterprises
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
20
09
Q1
Q3
20
10
Q1
Q3
20
11
Q1
Q3
20
12
Q1
Q3
20
13
Q1
Q3
20
14
Q1
Q3
20
15
Q1
Q3
-Q4
(e.
)
per cent
Large- and medium-sized enterprises
TIG
HTE
NIN
GLO
OSE
NIN
G
MAGYAR NEMZETI BANK
LENDING SURVEY • AUGUST 2015 18
Chart 28 Minimum required credit score by corporate category
(net percentage balance of respondents reporting tightening/easing weighted by market share)
Note: The magnitude of tightening/easing is not shown in the chart.
Chart 29 Monitoring/reporting requirements by corporate category
(net percentage balance of respondents reporting tightening/easing weighted by market share)
Note: The magnitude of tightening/easing is not shown in the chart.
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
20
09
Q1
Q3
20
10
Q1
Q3
20
11
Q1
Q3
20
12
Q1
Q3
20
13
Q1
Q3
20
14
Q1
Q3
20
15
Q1
Q3
-Q4
(e.
)
per cent
Non-financial corporations
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
20
09
Q1
Q3
20
10
Q1
Q3
20
11
Q1
Q3
20
12
Q1
Q3
20
13
Q1
Q3
20
14
Q1
Q3
20
15
Q1
Q3
-Q4
(e.
)
per cent
Small- and micro-sized enterprises
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
20
09
Q1
Q3
20
10
Q1
Q3
20
11
Q1
Q3
20
12
Q1
Q3
20
13
Q1
Q3
20
14
Q1
Q3
20
15
Q1
Q3
-Q4
(e.
)
per cent
Large- and medium-sized enterprises
TIG
HTE
NIN
GLO
OSEN
ING
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
20
09
Q1
Q3
20
10
Q1
Q3
20
11
Q1
Q3
20
12
Q1
Q3
20
13
Q1
Q3
20
14
Q1
Q3
20
15
Q1
Q3
-Q4
(e.
)
per cent
Non-financial corporations
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
20
09
Q1
Q3
20
10
Q1
Q3
20
11
Q1
Q3
20
12
Q1
Q3
20
13
Q1
Q3
20
14
Q1
Q3
20
15
Q1
Q3
-Q4
(e.
)
per cent
Small- and micro-sized enterprises
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
20
09
Q1
Q3
20
10
Q1
Q3
20
11
Q1
Q3
20
12
Q1
Q3
20
13
Q1
Q3
20
14
Q1
Q3
20
15
Q1
Q3
-Q4
(e.
)
per cent
Large- and medium-sized enterprises
TIG
HTE
NIN
GLO
OSE
NIN
G
MAGYAR NEMZETI BANK
19 LENDING SURVEY • AUGUST 2015
Chart 30 Factors contributing to changes in credit conditions on corporate loans (net percentage balance of banks
indicating a contribution of individual factors to tightening or easing weighted by market share)
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Changes in bank’s current or expected
capital position
Changes in bank’s current or expected
liquidity position
Economic outlook Industry-specificproblems
Competititivesituation with otherbanks or non-bank
lenders
Changes in risktolerance
Market share goals
per cent
2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2
2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3-Q4 (e.)
Co
ntr
ibu
tin
g to
tig
hte
nin
gC
on
trib
uti
ng
to e
asin
g
MAGYAR NEMZETI BANK
LENDING SURVEY • AUGUST 2015 20
Chart 31 Perceived demand for corporate loans
(net percentage balance of respondents reporting increase/decrease in demand weighted by market share)
Chart 32 Perceived demand for corporate loans by maturity
(net percentage balance of respondents reporting increase/decrease in demand weighted by market share)
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
1002
00
9 Q
1Q
32
01
0 Q
1Q
32
011
Q1
Q3
20
12
Q1
Q3
20
13
Q1
Q3
20
14
Q1
Q3
20
15
Q1
Q3
-Q4
(e.
)
per cent
Non-financial corporations
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
20
09
Q1
Q3
20
10
Q1
Q3
201
1 Q
1Q
32
01
2 Q
1Q
32
01
3 Q
1Q
32
01
4 Q
1Q
32
01
5 Q
1Q
3-Q
4 (
e.)
per cent
Commercial real estate
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
20
09
Q1
Q3
20
10
Q1
Q3
20
11
Q1
Q3
20
12
Q1
Q3
20
13
Q1
Q3
20
14
Q1
Q3
20
15
Q1
Q3
-Q4
(e.
)
per cent
Small- and micro sized enterprises
WEA
KER
STR
ON
GER
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
20
09
Q1
Q3
20
10
Q1
Q3
20
11
Q1
Q3
20
12
Q1
Q3
20
13
Q1
Q3
20
14
Q1
Q3
20
15
Q1
Q3
-Q4
(e.
)
per cent
Short term loans
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
20
09
Q1
Q3
20
10
Q1
Q3
20
11
Q1
Q3
20
12
Q1
Q3
20
13
Q1
Q3
20
14
Q1
Q3
20
15
Q1
Q3
-Q4
(e.
)
per cent
Long term loans
STR
ON
GER
WEA
KER
MAGYAR NEMZETI BANK
21 LENDING SURVEY • AUGUST 2015
Chart 33 Factors contributing to corporations’demand for loans based on banks’perceptions
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Change in customerinventory financing
needs
Change in customeraccounts receivable
financing needs
Change in customerinvestment in plant or
equipment
Change in customer'sown liabilities
Change ofattractiveness of other
bank or non-bank creditsources
Change in the level ofinterest rates
per cent
2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q42014 Q1 2014 Q2 2014 Q3 2014 Q42015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3-Q4 (e.)
Co
ntr
ibu
tin
g to
str
on
ger
dem
and
Co
ntr
ibu
tin
g to
wea
ker
dem
and
MAGYAR NEMZETI BANK
LENDING SURVEY • AUGUST 2015 22
Chart 34 Changes in loan portfolio quality by sector
(net percentage balance of respondents reporting improvement/deterioration weighted by market share)
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Agr
icu
ltu
re, f
ore
stry
an
d f
ish
ery
Man
ufa
ctu
rin
g
Ener
gy, p
ub
lic s
ervi
ces
Co
nst
ruct
ion
Wh
ole
sale
an
dre
tail
trad
e, r
epai
r
Cat
erin
g se
rvic
es
Tran
spo
rt, s
tora
ge,
po
st a
nd
tel
com
m.
IT, c
om
mu
nic
atio
n
Fin
anci
al in
term
ed
iati
on
Rea
l est
ate
and
bu
sin
ess
serv
ices
per cent
2013 Q1 2013 Q2 2013 Q3 2013 Q4 2014 Q1 2014 Q2
2014 Q3 2014 Q4 2015 Q1 2015 Q2 2015 Q3-Q4 (e.)
DETERIO
RATIO
NIM
PRO
VEM
EN
T
MAGYAR NEMZETI BANK
23 LENDING SURVEY • AUGUST 2015
Chart 35 Credit availability (Willingness to lend) and credit conditions in the commercial real-estate segment (net
percentage balance of respondents reporting an increase/decrease and tightening/easing weighted by market
share)
Note: The magnitude of tightening/easing is not shown in the chart.
Chart 36 Demand for loans in specific segments of the commercial real-estate market
(net percentage balance of respondents reporting an increase/decrease in demand weighted by market share)
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Credit availability 2015Q2
Credit availability(expected) 2015 Q3-Q4
Credit conditions 2015Q2
Credit conditions(expected) 2015 Q3-Q4
per cent
Residential Logistics Retail (shopping centres) Offices
INC
REA
SED
ECR
EASE
TIGH
TENIN
GLO
OSEN
ING
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Perceived demandin 2015 Q2
Anticipated demand for2015 Q3-Q4
per cent
Residential Logistics Retail (shopping centres) Offices
INCREASE
DECREASE
MAGYAR NEMZETI BANK
LENDING SURVEY • AUGUST 2015 24
Chart 37 Developments in perceptions of risk associated with corporate loans based on answers provided on
default rate and loss given default (net percentage balance of respondents reporting increased/decreased
risk (weighted by market share)
Chart 38 Changes in the quality of the commercial real estate loan portfolio
(net percentage balance of respondents reporting improvement/deterioration weighted by market share)
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Default rate in 2015 Q2 Default rate forecast2015 Q3-Q4
Loss given defaultin 2015 Q2
Loss given defaultforecast 2015 Q3-Q4
per cent
Non-financial corporations Large-and medium-sized enterprises
Small- and micro-sized enterprises
DETER
IOR
ATIO
NIM
PR
OV
EMEN
T
-100
-80
-60
-40
-20
0
20
40
60
80
100
Commercial realestate
Residential Logistics Retail (shoppingcentres)
Offices
per cent
Portfolio quality 2015 Q2 Portfolio quality 2015 Q3-Q4 (expected)
DETER
IOR
ATIO
NIM
PR
OV
EMEN
T
MAGYAR NEMZETI BANK
25 LENDING SURVEY • AUGUST 2015
ANNEX 2: METHODOLOGICAL NOTES
In terms of methodology − starting from January 2010 − the survey consists of the standard questionnaire in each segment, and we might also ask ad hoc questions of current concerns related to the lending segment. The retrospective questions in the questionnaire refer to the previous quarter year (previous quarter in the past), (e.g. to 2015 Q2 in July 2015), whereas forward-looking questions contain projections for the upcoming half year (e.g. for 2015 Q3-Q4 in July 2015), relative to the trends of the previous quarter year (previous half year in the past).
To indicate changes, the survey used the so-called net change indicator, expressed as a percentage of respondents. This indicator is calculated as follows: market share-weighted ratio of respondents projecting a change (tightening/increasing/strengthening) minus market share-weighted ratio of respondents projecting a change in the opposite direction (easing/decreasing/weakening).
The standard part of the questionnaire asked respondents for changes in willingness to lend (volume of loans), credit standards and credit/disbursement conditions, as well as changes in demand (observed in the last quarter and, as expected for the next half year, seasonally adjusted changes in new credit applications) and in portfolio quality as perceived by the respondent, and changes in the risk assessment of different sectors in the case of the corporate questionnaire. The survey applied a five-step scaling to assess changes in the willingness to lend, demand, standards/conditions, risk parameters, however on the charts we only show the direction, excluding magnitude:
• A rating of 1 reflects a considerable increase in demand and in willingness to lend, a considerable tightening in credit standards/credit conditions, a considerable increase in housing prices and risk parameters and, in the case of the risk assessment of sectors, a score of 1 indicates a considerable increase in risk perception relative to the half year preceding the survey, or relative to the current half year or for the upcoming half year in the case of a forecast.
• A rating of 3 indicates an unchanged assessment, both for the current half year and for the forecast pertaining to the upcoming half year.
• A rating of 5 reflects a considerable decrease in demand and in willingness to lend, a considerable loosening of credit standards/credit conditions, a considerable decline in housing prices and risk parameters and, in the case of the risk assessment of sectors, a rating of 5 indicates a significantly safer climate relative to the half year preceding the survey, or relative to the current half year or for the upcoming half year in the case of a forecast.
Ratings of 2 and 4 allow for an intermediate assessment between two extremes (e.g. demand increasing to some extent).
Keywords used for the purposes of the questionnaire are defined as follows:
Credit availability (willingness to lend) reflects the respondent’s intention to expand and increase its portfolio in the specific segment.
In terms of credit conditions1, there is a distinction between price-related and non-price related factors. Non-price
related credit conditions (such as collateralisation requirements, loan covenants, maximum size of loans/credit lines, etc.) represent specific contractual terms; the bank will not disburse the loan unless these conditions are met. Regarding the non-price related factors, the survey queried respondents on items such as the spread between the interest rate level and the cost of funds, and risk premium.
1 As credit standards and credit conditions are interrelated concepts, we surveyed overall changes in credit conditions and standards, followed by
a separate query on individual credit conditions.