q4 fy15 titan company ltd - india...
TRANSCRIPT
Sector: Cons Discretionary
Sector view: Positive
Sensex: 27,105
52 Week h/l (Rs): 448 / 269
Market cap (Rs cr) : 31,392
6m Avg vol (‘000Nos): 1,052
Bloomberg code: TTAN IS
BSE code: 500114
NSE code: TITAN
FV (Re): 1
Prices as on May 08, 2015
Share price trend
Share holding pattern % Sep‐14 Dec‐14 Mar‐14
Promoters 53.1 53.1 53.1
Insti 24.6 24.5 24.7
Others 22.4 22.5 22.2
100
150
200
May‐14 Sep‐14 Dec‐14 Apr‐15
Titan Sensex
Change in Estimates Rating Target
Rating: AccumulateTarget : Rs404
CMP: Rs354
Upside: 14.4%
Titan Company Ltd
Q4 FY15
Research Analyst: Pratik Tholiya
Result Update
May 11, 2015
This report is published by IIFL ‘India Private Clients’ research desk. IIFL has other business units with independent research teams separated by 'Chinese walls' catering to different sets of customers having varying objectives, risk profiles, investment horizon, etc. The views and opinions expressed in this document may at times be contrary in terms of rating, target prices, estimates and views on sectors and markets.
Disappointing performance with Q4FY15 net sales down 11% yoy as demand remained weak.
FY15 net sales at Rs 11913.4 crs were 5% below our expectations, registering a moderate growth of 9% yoy.
Q4FY15 operating profit declined ~9% yoy with mere 24 bps improvement in margins.
Lower tax rate due to tax benefit at Pantnagar unit helps post marginal increase in PAT.
New golden harvest scheme still to see significant pickup.
Reduce 12‐month target price to Rs404. Retain Accumulate. Result table (Rs cr) Q4 FY15 Q4 FY14 % yoy Q3 FY15 % qoq
Net sales 2,496 2,803 ‐11.0 2,923 ‐14.6
Material costs (1,629) (1,657) ‐1.7 (1,933) ‐15.7
Personnel costs (161) (131) 23.3 (154) 4.5
Stock in Trade (90) (415) ‐78.3 (231) ‐60.9
Advertising costs (80) (87) ‐8.1 (97) ‐17.0
Other expenses (265) (216) 22.8 (232) 14.6
Operating profit 270 297 ‐8.9 276 ‐2.1
OPM (%) 10.8 10.6 24 bps 9.4 138 bps
Depreciation (20) (20) ‐2.2 (23) ‐13.9
Interest (14) (23) ‐39.6 (21) ‐34.9
Other income 16 26 ‐37.8 12 37.7
PBT 252 279 ‐9.6 243 3.8
Tax (37) (72) ‐48.7 (52) ‐29.0
Effective tax rate (%) 14.7 26.0 21.5
Adjusted PAT 215 206 4.2 191 12.8
Adj. PAT margin (%) 8.6 7.4 125 bps 6.5 209 bps
Extra ordinary items ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐ ‐
Reported PAT 215 206 4.2 191 12.8 Source: Company, India Infoline Research
Disappointing performance as demand remains weak Titan’s Q4FY15 net sales stood at Rs. 2,469cr, down 11% yoy and 14.6% qoq. This was mainly attributable to weak macro demand environment in the jewellery segment which witnessed 15% fall in revenues. Management indicated demand remained sluggish during Jan‐Feb as customers postponed their purchases in anticipation of cut in customs duty. Demand picked up post budget as customs duty remained unchanged at 10%. Lower material costs and stock in trade led to ~506 bps gross margin expansion. Nevertheless, due to higher other expenses OPM improved marginally by 24bps at 10.8%. Operating profit came in at Rs. 270cr, lower by 9% yoy. Company reported a much lower tax rate at 14.7% against 26% in Q4FY14 and 21.5% in Q3FY15 due to increased contribution from Pantnagar facility which enjoys 100% tax exemption on profits. This tax benefit will continue for another two years after which it will fall to 30% of profits. As a result PAT margins improved 125bps helping the company to post 4.2% yoy growth in PAT at Rs. 215cr versus Rs. 206cr in Q4FY14.
Titan Company Ltd (Q4 FY15)
2
Jewellery demand remained lackluster Titan’s jewellery business saw one of the weakest demand growth in last 5 quarters as consumer sentiments showed no significant signs of improvement during the quarter. Jewellery business posted 15% yoy decline in revenues as customers stayed away due to lack of clarity on customs duty and also because there were no redemptions in its new golden harvest scheme. However, on like to like basis (adjusted for golden harvest scheme) jewellery sales registered 17% yoy growth. Sales at Tanishq stores fell 21% while the same store growth was down 25%. Goldplus format stores also saw a decline of 4% in sales which was contrary to the management’s own guidance of >20% growth which it had given in the last quarter. Q4 FY15 grammage were down 11% yoy partly due to lower customer enrollments which was down 7% yoy. Titan was able to retain the share of its high margin studded jewellery to 37% even as growth in studded jewellery revenue fell 18%. Benefits on account of gold hedging came in the tune of Rs 53cr during the quarter. This resulted in 206bps improvement in jewellery EBIT margins. Mandatory PAN card for purchases over one lakh to hit future demand The government has proposed to make PAN card mandatory for jewellery purchases over Rs 1 lakh against the current limit of Rs 5 lakh in order to curb black money. This was announced during the 2015 budget. This regulation is expected to be detrimental for the entire industry and would hit volumes in the coming quarters. For Titan, ~50% of its jewellery sales comes from buyers making purchases worth Rs 1‐5 lakh. These buyers are mostly professionals or salaried individuals and would not be impacted by PAN card regulation, as per management. Higher ad spends and reduction in making charges to increase footfalls Titan has launched aggressive advertisement campaign from the start of April keeping in mind the onset of wedding season and Akshaya Trithiya. Titan also reduced its making charges on gold jewellery in order to stay competitive in a weak demand environment and make the Tanishq brand more affordable to the larger consumer segment. These initiatives should help bring back footfalls and lead to better volumes. However, this could impact jewellery EBIT margins which would remain flattish during FY16. Store addition to continue Titan added 11 Tanishq stores in FY15 taking the total store count to 176 stores with a total area of 725 sq ft across 99 towns. Company plans to open 30 new stores during the current fiscal along with 15 exclusive stores of its designer brand Mia. This would add ~90‐100k sq ft mostly located in tier two towns. Most of the new stores will be through franchise model. Another weak quarter for watch segment Watch segment witnessed another weak quarter as volumes failed to pick up. Sales were up 1.8% on the back of price hike taken in various models even as volumes declined 6% yoy. PBIT margins contracted 240bps points due to negative operating leverage. World of Titan registered 11% sales growth and 5% like to like growth. Same store sales growth for Helios and Fastrack remained weak at 3% and ‐4% respectively. ‘Others’ segment continues to witness robust growth Others segment which comprises of eyewear, precision equipments (PE), and accessories continued to post healthy growth of 12.8% yoy during Q4FY15 and 12.9% during FY15. Individually, each of the business verticals has continued to show robust growth. Eyewear vertical clocked 19% revenue growth while PE division posted 15% revenue growth for the quarter. The eye wear segment saw one of the best years as it broke even and turned profitable during the year. For the full year, eyewear witnessed 24% yoy growth while PE grew 8%.
Titan Company Ltd (Q4 FY15)
3
Near term weakness to continue; FY16/17 estimate revised downwards; retain Accumulate With no significant improvement in macro demand environment, we believe H1FY16 to remain subdued. Demand should pickup only from second half of FY16. Consequently, we cut our FY16/17 revenue estimates by 10.5%/13.5%. Our EPS for FY16/17 is lower by ~11/13%. Titan’s superior brand value and efficient operational capabilities should see it through the near term weakness. Also, Titan plans to enter into the exciting segment of tech‐enabled watches. Before the end of FY16, Titan plans to launch their first ever wearable watches. Re‐launch of golden harvest scheme, aggressive marketing campaign, rationalization of making charges and increasing contribution from studded jewellery should drive growth in jewellery segment in the coming years, in our opinion. Gains from international hedging and lower gold premium will help maintain OPM at ~10%. Retain Accumulate with revised target price of Rs404. Revised Estimates
Particulars (Rs cr)
FY16E FY17E
Old New % Change Old New % Change
Revenues 14,950 13,383 (10.5) 18,085 15,639 (13.5)
Operating Profit 1,524 1,335 (12.4) 1,880 1,654 (12.1)
OPM (%) 10.2 10.0 (20) bps 10.4 10.6 20 bps
PAT 1,137 1,008 (11.4) 1,430 1,238 (13.4)
PAT Margin (%) 7.6 7.5 (10) bps 7.9 7.9 ‐
EPS 12.8 11.4 (11.3) 16.1 13.9 (13.4)
Financial Summary Y/e 31 Mar (Rs cr) FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E
Revenues 10,927 11,913 13,383 15,639
Yoy growth (%) 7.9 9.0 12.3 16.9
Operating profit 1,044 1,148 1,335 1,654
OPM (%) 9.6 9.6 10.0 10.6
Reported PAT 735 816 1,008 1,238
Yoy growth (%) 1.4 11.1 23.5 22.8
EPS (Rs) 8.3 9.2 11.4 13.9
P/E (x) 42.7 38.5 31.2 25.4
Price/Book (x) 12.4 10.2 8.3 6.8
EV/EBITDA (x) 30.0 26.2 22.1 17.4
Debt/Equity (x) 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.0
RoE (%) 32.7 29.1 29.4 29.5
RoCE (%) 41.3 34.7 37.3 38.7 Source: Company, India Infoline Research
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