q4 2018 earnings review - pnm resources/media/files/p/pnm... · q4 2018 q42017 2018 2017 gaap eps...
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Q4 2018 Earnings ReviewFebruary 27, 2019
Safe Harbor Statement
2
Statements made in this presentation for PNM Resources, Inc. (“PNMR”), Public Service Company of New Mexico (“PNM”), or Texas‐New Mexico Power Company (“TNMP”) (collectively, the “Company”) that relate to future events or expectations, projections, estimates, intentions, goals, targets, and strategies are made pursuant to the Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Readers are cautioned that all forward‐looking statements are based upon current expectations and estimates. PNMR, PNM, and TNMP assume no obligation to update this information. Because actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied by these forward‐looking statements, PNMR, PNM, and TNMP caution readers not to place undue reliance on these statements. PNMR's, PNM's, and TNMP's business, financial condition, cash flow, and operating results are influenced by many factors, which are often beyond their control, that can cause actual results to differ from those expressed or implied by the forward‐looking statements. For a discussion of risk factors and other important factors affecting forward‐looking statements, please see the Company’s Form 10‐K and 10‐Q filings with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which factors are specifically incorporated by reference herein.
Non‐GAAP Financial MeasuresFor an explanation of the non‐GAAP financial measures that appear on certain slides in this presentation (ongoing earnings, ongoing earnings per diluted share and ongoing earnings guidance measures), as well as a reconciliation to GAAP measures, please refer to the Company’s website as follows: http://www.pnmresources.com/investors/results.cfm.
Opening Remarks and OverviewPat Vincent‐Collawn
Chairman, President and CEO
Financial Results, Key Highlights and Company Updates
4
• 2019 Ongoing EPS Guidance narrowed to $2.10 ‐ $2.18
Financial Results
Note: EPS is presented on a diluted basis. For a reconciliation of GAAP EPS to Ongoing EPS and a description of adjustments made, please refer to the fourth quarter earnings release issued February 27, 2019.
Q4 2018 Q4 2017 2018 2017GAAP EPS ($0.69) ($0.68) $1.07 $1.00Ongoing EPS $0.18 $0.24 $2.00 $1.94
2018 Key Highlights• TNMP continued growth, load growth at PNM• Return of federal tax savings to customers• Investments in reliability and environmentally sustainable power• 9% dividend increase moves payout ratio to middle of 50‐60% targeted range
2019 Company Updates• New Mexico legislative session: Energy Transition Act• Regulatory Updates: NMPRC actions, TNMP TCOS filing
Key Highlights and Company Updates
PNM and TNMP Regulatory Agenda
5
Filing Action Timing Docket No.
PNMAppeal of 2015 General Rate Case to New Mexico Supreme Court
Oral arguments held October 30, 2017 No statutory timeline S‐1‐SC‐36115
San Juan Generating Station Compliance Filing
Filed December 31, 2018, docket closed; Order issued in new docket to file application in support of abandonment by March 1, 2019
PNM request for reconsideration of Order to be addressed by February 27, 2019 or denied by operation of law
13‐00390‐UT
19‐00018‐UT
Western Energy Imbalance Market Filing
Order governing accounting treatment approved December 19, 2018; Order to vacate previous order and grant rehearing issued February 6, 2019
Procedural schedule or final order pending 18‐00261‐UT
2017 Integrated Resource Plan
Final Order to accept Plan issued December 19, 2018; notice of appeal to New Mexico Supreme Court received January 18, 2019
No statutory timeline17‐00174‐UT
S‐1‐SC‐37482
2019 Renewable Plan Hearings held September ‐ October 2018 Approved November 29, 2018 18‐00158‐UT
TNMP
General Rate Review Settlement approved December 20, 2018 Rates implemented January 2019 48401
TCOS Filing Filed January 25, 2019 Expected to be approved March 2019 49143
Financial OverviewChuck Eldred
Executive Vice President and CFO
FY 2018 Ongoing EPS Financial Summary
7Note: Segment drivers included in appendix
$0.06 $0.11 ($0.11)
$1.94 $2.00
FY 2017 FY 2018
PNM TNMP Corporate
Load and Economic Conditions
8
Regulated Retail Energy Sales and Customers (weather‐normalized)
(1) Primarily Residential usage; represents per‐kWh billings(2) Commercial and Industrial usage excluding Transmission customers; represents per‐kW monthly peak billings (3) U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, December 2018
1.9%3.1%
1.6%
2015 2016 2017 2018
% Cha
nge
Employment Growth(3)
12‐Month Rolling Average
Albuquerque Dallas U.S.
PNM / TNMPQ4 2018
vs. Q4 2017
2018vs. 2017
2018E 2019E
PNM Residential & Commercial 1.3% 0.7% ~0.3% 0.3% ‐ 0.5%Total PNM Retail Load 1.3% 0.6% 0% – 0.5% 0.3% – 1.0%PNM Avg. Customers 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% ‐ 1.0% per year
TNMP Total Volumetric Load(1) 3.5% 3.2% 2% – 3% per yearTNMP Demand‐Based Load(2) 7.8% 6.8% 5% – 7% 6% – 8%TNMP Avg. End Users 1.3% 1.3% 1.5% – 2.0% per year
Monthly Employment Growth(3)
2018 vs. 2017 Abq. U.S.January 1.2% 1.4%February 1.6% 1.5%March 1.3% 1.6%April 1.3% 1.6%May 1.3% 1.7%June 1.3% 1.6%July 2.1% 1.6%August 2.1% 1.7%September 2.5% 1.7%October 2.6% 1.7%November 2.4% 1.7%December 2.6% 1.8%
Consolidated Earnings Guidance (Ongoing)
9
2019 Previous CurrentConsolidated EPS $2.08 ‐ $2.18 $2.10 ‐ $2.18
PNM $1.59 ‐ $1.65 $1.61 ‐ $1.65
TNMP $0.67 ‐ $0.69 $0.67 ‐ $0.69
Corporate/Other ($0.18) – ($0.16) ($0.18) – ($0.16)
2019 Earnings Guidance
$2.10 Consolidated EPS $2.18
PNM$1.61 – $1.65
TNMP$0.67 – $0.69
Corp/Other($0.18) – ($0.16)
$245 $245 $245 $245
$125 $180 $175 $141 $98
$97 $79 $82 $61 $49 $79 $27 $25
$20 $20
$32 $29
$350
$100
2019 2020 2021 2022TNMP PNM T&D PNM Existing GenerationPNM Renewable Additions PNM Transmission Expansion Corporate/Other50% NMRD Renewable Additions Depreciation
$637Total: $588
Total: $869
$655
Subtotal: $519
10
$2.3B investment plan plus incremental growth opportunities
2019 – 2022 Investment Plan
Amounts may not visually add due to rounding(1) Depreciation does not include amounts associated with NMRD
(1)
Targeted 2018‐2022 Rate Base CAGR (2018 base): Total 7.1%‐9.0% / PNM 3.6%‐6.4% / TNMP 16.2% Range at PNM reflects potential outcomes from the pending NM Supreme Court general rate review appeal of $0‐$150M and potential growth opportunities
Incremental growth opportunities
Subtotal: $488
Incremental growth opportunities (previously $950M)• $255M moved into T&D capital at PNM and TNMP • $450M supports new transmission and replacement power• $245M awaiting future capital prioritization
2019 ‐ 2022 Potential Earnings Power
11This table is not intended to represent a forward‐looking projection of 2020 ‐ 2022 earnings guidance.
Refer to Slide 20 for additional details and disclosures.
Allowed Return /
Equity Ratio
2019 Ongoing Earnings Guidance Midpoint
2020 Earnings Potential
2021 Earnings Potential
2022 Earnings Potential
Avg Rate Base Return EPS Avg Rate
Base EPS Avg Rate Base EPS Avg Rate
Base EPS
PNM Retail 9.575% / 50% $2.4 B 9.3% $1.41 $2.4 B $1.44 $2.5 B $1.52 $2.5 B $1.47PNM Renewables 9.575% / 50% $115 M 9.575% $0.07 $150 M $0.09 $145 M $0.09 $140 M $0.08PNM FERC 10% / ~50% $285 M 8.0% $0.14 $340 M $0.15‐$0.20 $390 M $0.17‐$0.22 $470 M $0.21‐$0.26Items not in Rates $0.01 ($0.04)‐($0.02) ($0.04)‐($0.02) ($0.04)‐($0.02)
Total PNM $2.7 B $1.63 $2.9 B $1.64‐$1.71 $3.1 B $1.74‐$1.81 $3.1 B $1.72‐$1.79TNMP 9.65% / 45% $1.1 B 9.65% $0.68 $1.3 B $0.73 $1.4 B $0.80 $1.6 B $0.84Corporate/Other ($0.17) ($0.18)‐($0.16) ($0.20)‐($0.18) ($0.22)‐($0.20)ATM Program ($0.02)‐($0.01) ($0.04)‐($0.03) ($0.06)‐($0.04)Subtotal Base PNM Resources $3.8 B $2.14 $4.1 B $2.17 ‐ $2.27 $4.5 B $2.30 ‐ $2.40 $4.6 B $2.28 ‐ $2.39Incremental items:Supreme Court Appeal up to $150M $0.09 $150M $0.09 $150M $0.09 $150M $0.09Growth Opportunities up to $175M $0.10 $400M $0.24Growth Financing up to ($0.03) ($0.03)Total PNM Resources up to $3.9 B $2.23 $4.3 B $2.36 $4.8 B $2.56 $5.2 B $2.69
Earnings Growth Target: 5 ‐ 6% • Base plan increases as capital opportunities are realized to support
growth at PNM and TNMP • Planned San Juan retirement reduces 2022 PNM Retail average rate base• $450M of incremental growth opportunities to be financed with $320M
of securitization proceeds and $130M of debt and equity
Note: 2018‐2022 CAGR measured from 2018 Ongoing EPS of $2.00
Questions and Answers
AppendixQ4 and FY 2018 Earnings
Q4 2018 vs Q4 2017 EPS (Ongoing): PNM
$0.16
$0.10
Q4 2017 Q4 2018
14
PNMQ4 2018 Key Performance Drivers ∆ EPS
Outage Costs $0.05
Weather $0.04
Interest expense savings $0.03
Retail load $0.01
Transmission margin $0.01
O&M increases ($0.05)
Decommissioning/reclamation trust income, net of fees ($0.05)
Depreciation and property tax ($0.03)Retail rate phase‐in, including changes in tax rates and retail generation portfolio changes approved in BART settlement ($0.02)
San Juan unregulated 65MW ($0.02)
FERC Generation Navopache contract ($0.01)
Other ($0.02)
Q4 2018 vs Q4 2017 EPS (Ongoing): TNMP and Corporate
15
$0.11 $0.14
Q4 2017 Q4 2018
TNMPQ4 2018 Key Performance Drivers ∆ EPS
Load $0.02
O&M decreases $0.01
Other (TCOS rate relief, AFUDC) $0.01
Other (weather, depreciation and property tax) ($0.01)
($0.03) ($0.06)
Q4 2017 Q4 2018
Corporate
Q4 2018 Key Performance Drivers ∆ EPS
Interest expense ($0.02)
Westmoreland loan agreements ($0.01)
2018 vs 2017 EPS (Ongoing): PNM
$1.48 $1.54
2017 2018
16
PNM2018 Key Performance Drivers ∆ EPS
Retail rate phase‐in, including changes in tax rates and retail generation portfolio changes approved in BART settlement $0.31
Transmission margin $0.11
Weather $0.10
Interest expense savings $0.06
Retail load $0.02
Decommissioning/reclamation trust income, net of fees ($0.14)
O&M increases ($0.12)
Depreciation and property tax ($0.11)
San Juan unregulated 65MW ($0.06)
Outage costs ($0.05)
FERC Generation Navopache contract ($0.02)
AFUDC ($0.01)
Other ($0.03)
2018 vs 2017 EPS (Ongoing): TNMP and Corporate
17
$0.54 $0.65
2017 2018
TNMP2018 Key Performance Drivers ∆ EPS
Load $0.06TCOS rate relief $0.04AFUDC $0.03Weather $0.01Tax reform $0.01Other $0.01
Depreciation and property tax ($0.05)
($0.08) ($0.19)
2017 2018
Corporate2018 Key Performance Drivers ∆ EPS
Interest expense ($0.06)
Westmoreland loan agreements ($0.03)
Tax reform ($0.01)
Other ($0.01)
Weather Impact
18
PNM Q4 2018 Q4 2017 2018 Normal(1)
Heating Degree Days 1,005 608 861
Cooling Degree Days 18 16 13
Net EPS Impact compared to normal
$0.02 ($0.02)
TNMP Q4 2018 Q4 2017 2018 Normal(1)
Heating Degree Days 719 596 617
Cooling Degree Days 246 376 283
Net EPS Impact compared to normal
$0.00 $0.00(1) 2018 normal weather assumption reflects the 20‐year average for the period 1998 ‐ 2017.
Ongoing Earnings Guidance
Potential Earnings Power
20
(1) Average rate base has been reduced by approximately $130M to represent the ($0.05) of Earnings Potential for the lost equity return on the Four Corners investment resulting from the 2018 general rate review settlement. 2022 rate base is reduced by $160M to reflect the projected average rate base retired at SJGS.
(2) PNM Renewables reflect assets collected through the Renewable Rate Rider. (3) PNM FERC reflects a return of 7‐9% versus the allowed return of 10%, as FERC formula rate methodology uses prior year average rate base and provides for mid‐year rate increases. (4) Consists primarily of decommissioning/reclamation trust income (net of fees and taxes), AFUDC, certain incentive compensation, and the 65MW ownership of San Juan Unit 4.(5) TNMP reflects a 9.65% return and 45% equity ratio consistent with the filed general rate review settlement. Earnings also include additional recovery for Competitive Transition Costs (fully
recovered in 2020) and Energy Efficiency, along with items excluded from rates (primarily AFUDC). Earnings also include debt savings beginning mid‐2019 from the refinancing of existing debt. (6) Corporate/Other includes earnings associated with short and intermediate term bank debt and 50% equity interest in NMRD.(7) Dilution impact assumes equity issuances up to $50M in 2020, $150M in 2021 and 2022.(8) Reflects a range of outcomes for the New Mexico Supreme Court appeal of the August 2015 General Rate Review final order. A minimum 31‐month appeal timeframe has been used for
purposes of writing down the value of the assets under appeal. 2019 average rate base presented includes: PV2 64MW Acquisition Adjustment (~$75M), PV2 Leasehold Improvements (~$25M) and Balanced Draft Technology (~$50M).
(9) Reflects $450M incremental capital opportunities shown on Slide 9.(9) Reflects $320M of securitization proceeds and $130M of debt and equity financing to maintain investment grade credit ratings.
This table is not intended to represent a forward‐looking projection of 2020 ‐ 2022 earnings guidance.
Allowed Return /
Equity Ratio
2019 Ongoing Earnings Guidance Midpoint
2020 Earnings Potential
2021 Earnings Potential
2022 Earnings Potential
Avg Rate Base Return EPS Avg Rate
Base EPS Avg Rate Base EPS Avg Rate
Base EPS
PNM Retail(1) 9.575% / 50% $2.4 B 9.3% $1.41 $2.4 B $1.44 $2.5 B $1.52 $2.5 B $1.47PNM Renewables(2) 9.575% / 50% $115 M 9.575% $0.07 $150 M $0.09 $145 M $0.09 $140 M $0.08PNM FERC(3) 10% / ~50% $285 M 8.0% $0.14 $340 M $0.15‐$0.20 $390 M $0.17‐$0.22 $470 M $0.21‐$0.26Items not in Rates(4) $0.01 ($0.04)‐($0.02) ($0.04)‐($0.02) ($0.04)‐($0.02)
Total PNM $2.7 B $1.63 $2.9 B $1.64‐$1.71 $3.1 B $1.74‐$1.81 $3.1 B $1.72‐$1.79TNMP(5) 9.65% / 45% $1.1 B 9.65% $0.68 $1.3 B $0.73 $1.4 B $0.80 $1.6 B $0.84Corporate/Other(6) ($0.17) ($0.18)‐($0.16) ($0.20)‐($0.18) ($0.22)‐($0.20)ATM Program(7) ($0.02)‐($0.01) ($0.04)‐($0.03) ($0.06)‐($0.04)Subtotal Base PNM Resources $3.8 B $2.14 $4.1 B $2.17 ‐ $2.27 $4.5 B $2.30 ‐ $2.40 $4.6 B $2.28 ‐ $2.39Incremental items:Supreme Court Appeal(8) up to $150M $0.09 $150M $0.09 $150M $0.09 $150M $0.09Growth Opportunities(9) up to $175M $0.10 $400M $0.24
Growth Financing(10) up to ($0.03) ($0.03)
Total PNM Resources up to $3.9 B $2.23 $4.3 B $2.36 $4.8 B $2.56 $5.2 B $2.69
$1.48 $1.54
2017 2018 2019E
PNM Guidance (Ongoing)
21
PNM Ongoing EPS$1.61 ‐ $1.65
Key Year‐over‐Year EPS Performance Drivers 2018 vs 2019Changes
Retail rate phase‐in (includes federal and accelerated state tax amortization)(1) $0.07Retail load $0.03 – $0.05Weather ($0.07 in 2018, $0.02 estimated in 2019) ($0.05)Transmission margin $0.00 – $0.02Renewable rider, including tax reform impacts $0.02AFUDC $0.00 – $0.01Interest expense savings $0.03 – $0.04Outage costs ($0.03) – ($0.02)San Juan unregulated 65MW ($0.01)Decommissioning/reclamation trust income, net of fees $0.02 – $0.04O&M decreases $0.02 – $0.04Depreciation and property tax ($0.08) – ($0.06)
(1) See slide 22 for details
PNM Guidance (Ongoing) Additional Details
22
Financial impact under retail rate phase‐in (includes federal and accelerated state tax amortization)
Phase I –February 1, 2018
Phase II –January 1, 2019
(in millions, except EPS)
Revenue increase (net of tax reform give‐back) $4.7 $10.3 Accelerated amortization of excess deferred state taxes(1) 6.9 7.5
Financial impact $11.6 $17.8 Income tax (25.4% statutory rate) (2.9) (4.5)Amortization of excess deferred federal income taxes 11.8 12.9After‐tax financial impact $20.5 $26.2EPS (80M shares outstanding) $0.26 $0.33
(1) New Mexico phased‐in a lower state corporate income tax rate from 2014 – 2018. Under the PNM 2018 General Rate Review order, PNM will begin the return of this benefit through customer rates in 2018, over a 3 year period. This also lowers PNM’s income tax expense in 2018, 2019, and 2020.
TNMP Guidance (Ongoing)
23
$0.54 $0.65 $0.67 – $0.69
2017 2018 2019E
TNMP Ongoing EPS
Key Year‐over‐Year EPS Performance Drivers 2018 vs 2019Changes
Rate relief, including TCOS $0.07Load $0.05 – $0.062018 weather (0.01)O&M increases ($0.02) – $0.01Interest expense savings $0.02 – $0.03Depreciation and property tax ($0.10) – ($0.09)
Corporate and Other Guidance (Ongoing)
24
($0.08) ($0.19)
2017 2018 2019E
($0.18) – ($0.16)
Corporate and Other Ongoing EPS
Key Year‐over‐Year EPS Performance Drivers 2018 vs 2019Changes
Westmoreland loan agreement paydown ($0.01)
Interest expense ($0.01) – $0.00
O&M and Income tax expense decreases $0.02
EBITDA and Quarterly Earnings Distribution Guidance (Ongoing)
25
Ongoing EBITDA(In millions)
2019E MidpointConsolidated PNM Resources $577
PNM $376
TNMP $180
4%
30%56%
10%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2019 Quarterly Ongoing Earnings Distribution
2019 Assumptions
26
amounts shown are before tax 2019EPNM
Weather $2MResidential and Commercial Load 1% = $0.04Outage costs $19M – $21MDecommissioning/reclamation trust income, net of fees $11M – $15MAnticipated effective tax rate before amortization of excess deferred income taxes
24.6%
Amortization of excess deferred income taxes $21.6MTNMP
Weather $0 (normal)Volumetric Load 1% = $0.01Anticipated effective tax rate before amortization of excess deferred income taxes
23.9%
Amortization of excess deferred income taxes $8.7MCorporate/Other
Anticipated effective tax rate 28.3%
Average PNM Resources diluted shares outstanding 79.9M
PNM Scheduled Plant Outages
27
San Juan
Unit Duration in Days
Time Period
4 44 Q1‐Q2 2019
Palo Verde
Unit Duration in Days
Time Period
1 30 Q2 2019
3 44 Q4 2019
Four Corners
Unit Duration in Days
Time Period
4 21 Q1 2019
5 21 Q1 2019
Balance Sheet and Credit Metrics
Liquidity as of February 22, 2019
29
PNM TNMP
PNMR
PNM Resources
Consolidated
PNMR Develop‐ment
Corporate/Other
Financing Capacity(1): (In millions)
Revolving credit facilities $440.0 $75.0 $25.0 $300.0 $840.0
As of 2/22/19:
Short‐term debt and LOCbalances $12.5 $37.6 $10.9 $50.0 $111.0
Remaining availability 427.5 37.4 14.1 250.0 729.0
Invested cash 18.1 ‐ ‐ 0.9 19.0
Total Available Liquidity $445.6 $37.4 $14.1 $250.9 $748.0(1) Excludes intercompany debt and term loans
Selected Balance Sheet Information
30
(1) Net of unamortized debt issuance costs, premiums and discounts(2) Excludes intercompany debtAmounts may not add due to rounding
(In millions) Dec 31, 2017 Dec 31, 2018
Long‐Term Debt (incl. current portion) (1)
PNM $1,657.9 $1,656.5
TNMP 480.6 575.4
Corporate/Other 299.1 438.2
Consolidated $2,437.6 $2,670.1
Total Debt (incl. short‐term) (2)
PNM $1,697.7 $1,698.9
TNMP 480.6 592.9
Corporate/Other 564.7 614.2
Consolidated $2,743.0 $2,906.0
Credit Ratings
31
PNMR Consolidated S&P Moody’s
Issuer rating BBB+ Baa3
Outlook Negative Stable
Senior unsecured rating BBB Baa3
PNM S&P Moody’s
Issuer rating BBB+ Baa2
Outlook Negative Stable
Senior unsecured rating BBB+ Baa2
TNMP S&P Moody’s
Issuer rating BBB+ A3
Issuer outlook Negative Stable
Senior secured rating A A1