q4 2014 manpower employment outlook survey canada · manpower employment outlook survey canada...

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Manpower Employment Outlook SurveyCanada

A Manpower Research Report

Q4 2014

Manpower Employment Outlook Survey Canada


CLIeNT: MANpOweR


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Contents

Canada Employment Outlook 1Regional Comparisons

Sector Comparisons

Global Employment Outlook 11International Comparisons – Americas

International Comparisons – Asia Pacific

International Comparisons – EMEA

About the Survey 21

About ManpowerGroupTM 22Throughout this report, we use the term “Net Employment Outlook”. This figure is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating total employment to increase, and subtracting from this, the percentage expecting to see a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter. The result of this calculation is the Net Employment Outlook.

Q4/

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Canada Employment OutlookThe Manpower Employment Outlook Survey for the fourth quarter 2014 was conducted by interviewing a representative sample of over 1,900 employers in Canada.

All survey participants were asked, “How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of December 2014 as compared to the current quarter?”

Canadian employers report conservative hiring plans for Quarter 4 2014. With 12% of employers forecasting an increase in staffing levels, 7% anticipating a decrease and 79% expecting no change, the resulting Net Employment Outlook is +5%.

Once the data is adjusted to allow for seasonal variation, the Outlook stands at +8%. Hiring intentions weaken by two and three percentage points quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, respectively, resulting in the weakest Outlook since Quarter 4 2009.

Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know Net EmploymentOutlook

SeasonallyAdjusted

% % % % % %

4th Quarter 2013 16 8 74 2 8 11

1st Quarter 2014 13 8 78 1 5 11

2nd Quarter 2014 16 4 78 2 12 9

3rd Quarter 2014 20 4 74 2 16 10

4th Quarter 2014 12 7 79 2 5 8

-15

-10

-5

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.

Net Employment OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook’89 ’90 ’91 ’92 ’93 ’94 ’95 ’96 ’97 ’98 ’99 ’00 ’01 ’02 ’03 ’04 ’05 ’06 ’07 ’08 ’09 ’10 ’11 ’12 ’13 ’14

From this point forward, all data discussed in the commentary is seasonally adjusted, unless stated otherwise.

Net EmploymentOutlook

SeasonallyAdjusted

Increase Decrease No Change Don’t Know

% % % %%%

Construction 12 13 73 -12 5

Education 13 2 83 11 82

Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 15 3 79 3 12 12

Manufacturing – Durables 12 6 81 1 6 8

Manufacturing – Non-Durables 8 10 77 5 1-2

Mining 15 8 76 1 77

Public Administration 13 5 79 8 163Services 12 7 79 2 5 9

Transportation & Public Utilities 14 5 80 1 9 13Wholesale & Retail Trade 12 10 77 1 2 5


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Regional Comparisons

Atlantic Canada -1 (3)%Employers report the weakest hiring prospects since the regional analysis was first carried out in Quarter 1 2004, with a cautious Net Employment Outlook of +3% for the next three months. Hiring intentions decline by a considerable margin of 12 percentage points quarter-over-quarter and are seven percentage points weaker year-over-year.Employers in eight of the 10 industry sectors forecast an increase in staffing levels during Quarter 4 2014. The most respectable hiring intentions are reported by Manufacturing − Durables sector employers with an Outlook of +16%. Services sector employers report steady hiring plans with an Outlook of +15%, while Outlooks stand at +8% and +6% in the Education sector and the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector, respectively. However, payrolls are expected to decline in two sectors. Manufacturing − Non-Durables sector employers report a sluggish Outlook of -10% and the Transportation & Public Utilities sector Outlook of -4% is the weakest reported in the sector since the analysis was first carried out in Quarter 1 2004. With an Outlook of +1%, Wholesale & Retail Trade sector employers report the weakest hiring plans since Quarter 1 2007.Hiring intentions weaken in nine of the 10 industry sectors when compared with the previous quarter. Steep declines of 35 and 33 percentage points are reported by employers in the Public Administration sector and the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector, respectively, while the Education sector Outlook decreases by 27 percentage points. Elsewhere, considerable Outlook declines of 16 and 11 percentage points are reported for the Transportation & Public Utilities sector and the Wholesale & Retail Trade sector, respectively. However, hiring intentions improve by six percentage points in the Manufacturing − Non-Durables sector.

Year-over-year, employers report stronger Outlooks in five of the 10 industry sectors. The Manufacturing − Durables sector Outlook increases by a steep margin of 22 percentage points while employers report an improvement of 12 percentage points in the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector. Meanwhile, considerable declines are reported in four sectors, most notably by 20 percentage points in the Transportation & Public Utilities sector. Hiring plans weaken by 16 percentage points in the Manufacturing − Non-Durables sector, while decreases of 15 and 13 percentage points are reported for the Mining sector and the Wholesale & Retail Trade sector, respectively.Employers in three of the seven areas expect to increase payrolls during the next three months, with the most upbeat hiring intentions reported in Fredericton and Charlottetown, with Outlooks of +16% and +13%, respectively. However, staffing levels are expected to decline in four areas, with the weakest Outlook of -10% reported by employers in Cape Breton Area.Quarter-over-quarter, hiring plans weaken in four areas, including St. John’s and Cape Breton Area, where employers report steep declines of 33 and 31 percentage points, respectively. Moncton employers report a decrease of 19 percentage points and the Saint John Outlook declines by 16 percentage points. Meanwhile, hiring plans improve in three areas, most notably by five percentage points in Charlottetown.Year-over-year, hiring prospects decline in four areas. St John’s employers report the sharpest decrease of 28 percentage points while Outlooks are 27 and 22 percentage points weaker in Moncton and Cape Breton Area, respectively. Elsewhere, hiring intentions improve in three areas, including Saint John and Charlottetown, where Outlooks increase by 10 and eight percentage points, respectively.


SeasonallyAdjusted


% % % %%%

Construction 12 18 70 -60 1

All Industries 9 10 80 -11 3

Education 19 6 75 13 80



Manufacturing – Non-Durables 6 22 72 0 -10-16

Mining 6 12 82 0 5-6


Transportation & Public Utilities 5 5 90 0 0 -4Wholesale & Retail Trade 8 20 72 0 -12 1

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Ontario +3 (7)%With a Net Employment Outlook of +7%, employers anticipate some workforce gains during the upcoming quarter. Hiring intentions remain relatively stable both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year. However, the Outlook is the least optimistic reported since Quarter 4 2009.Staffing levels are expected to grow in nine of the 10 industry sectors during the next three months. The most favourable hiring plans are reported in the Public Administration sector, with an Outlook of +19%. Elsewhere, steady hiring activity is forecast for the Transportation & Public Utilities sector and the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector, with Outlooks of +14% and +12%, respectively, and the Education sector Outlook stands at +10%. Some job gains are forecast by Manufacturing – Durables sector employers who report an Outlook of +8%, and in the Services sector with an Outlook of +7%. Wholesale & Retail Trade sector employers also report an Outlook of +6%, but this is the weakest forecast in the sector since Quarter 3 2009. Meanwhile, the Manufacturing − Non-Durables sector reports flat hiring intentions with an Outlook of 0%.When compared with Quarter 3 2014, hiring prospects weaken in seven of the 10 industry sectors. The most noteworthy Outlook declines of six and four percentage points are reported in the Manufacturing − Durables sector and the Transportation & Public Utilities sector, respectively. However, hiring intentions strengthen in three sectors, most notably by five percentage points in the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector. Employers report Outlook improvements of three percentage points in both the Mining sector and the Public Administration sector.Employers report stronger hiring plans in four of the 10 industry sectors when compared with Quarter 4 2013. Public Administration sector employers report the most noteworthy improvement of 17 percentage points, while increases of six and three percentage points are reported

in the Education sector and the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector, respectively. Meanwhile, Outlooks decline in four sectors, most notably by 11 percentage points in the Construction sector. Manufacturing − Non-Durables sector employers report a decrease of nine percentage points while the Outlook for the Manufacturing − Durables sector Outlook is five percentage points weaker.Workforce gains are anticipated in 21 of the 24 areas during the October-December time frame. The most respectable hiring prospects are reported in Hamilton and Brockville, where Outlooks stand at +19% and +17%, respectively. York Region employers report steady hiring prospects with an Outlook of +12% while hopeful Outlooks of +11% are reported for both Brampton and Welland/Port Colborne. Meanwhile, payrolls are expected to decline in three areas, most notably in Barrie where the Outlook stands at -5%.Hiring intentions weaken in 14 areas when compared with the previous quarter. The most notable declines of 20 and 12 percentage points are reported in Barrie and Brampton, respectively. The Outlook for St. Catharines is 10 percentage points weaker while Welland/Port Colborne employers report a decline of seven percentage points. Elsewhere, hiring prospects improve in nine areas. The Brockville Outlook is 11 percentage points stronger while increases of eight percentage points are reported in both Windsor and York Region.Year-over-year, Outlooks decline in 12 areas. Barrie employers report the most noteworthy decline of 29 percentage points while Outlooks are 19 and 13 percentage points weaker in Mississauga and Northumberland County, respectively. Meanwhile, hiring intentions strengthen in 11 areas, including Brockville and Hamilton, both with improvements of 10 percentage points. Hiring plans also strengthen by nine, seven and six percentage points in York Region, Ottawa and Thunder Bay, respectively.


SeasonallyAdjusted


% % % %%%

Construction 11 11 77 01 6

All Industries 11 8 79 32 7

Education 9 2 89 7 100



Manufacturing – Non-Durables 9 9 76 6 00

Mining 11 8 80 1 23




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Quebec 0 (5)%Some payroll gains are expected in the October-December time frame, with employers reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +5%. While the Outlook declines by three percentage points quarter-over-quarter, employers report an improvement of four percentage points year-over-year.

Job seekers can expect hiring opportunities in seven of the 10 industry sectors during the next three months. The most positive Outlook of +11% is reported by Manufacturing − Durables sector employers, while encouraging signs are reported for the Wholesale & Retail Trade sector with an Outlook of +9%. Education sector employers anticipate some job growth, reporting an Outlook of +7%, while Outlooks stand at +5% in two sectors – the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector and the Transportation & Public Utilities sector. However, employers in three sectors expect a decline in staffing levels during Quarter 4 2014, most notably in the Construction sector where the Outlook of -12% is the weakest reported since Quarter 4 2004. Elsewhere, Outlooks of -5% and -2% are reported for the Public Administration sector and the Mining sector, respectively.

Quarter-over-quarter, employers in nine of the 10 industry sectors report weaker hiring intentions. The most notable declines of 17 percentage points are reported in both the Construction sector and the Public Administration sector. Elsewhere, Outlooks decrease by 10 and nine percentage points in the Education sector and the Services sector, respectively, while Manufacturing − Durables sector employers report a decline of six percentage points. However, employers in the Manufacturing − Non-Durables sector report an improvement of eight percentage points.

Hiring prospects improve in five of the 10 industry sectors when compared with Quarter 4 2013. Education sector

employers report the most notable increase of 14 percentage points while the Outlook is nine percentage points stronger in the Manufacturing − Non-Durables sector. Employers in both the Mining sector and the Manufacturing − Durables sector report increases of seven percentage points. Meanwhile, hiring prospects decline in three sectors. A considerable decrease of 19 percentage points is reported by Construction sector employers while the Public Administration Outlook is 17 percentage points weaker.

Seasonally adjusted data is available for four of the five areas in Quebec. Figures for Laval (*) are not seasonally adjusted.

Employers in Quebec City anticipate an upbeat hiring pace in the next three months, reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +19%. However, elsewhere in the region hiring activity is expected to be subdued. Staffing levels are forecast to decline in three areas, with employers reporting Outlooks of -5% in Monteregie and -3% in both Laval* and Cantons de L’Est, while the Outlook for Montreal stands at +1%.

Hiring intentions weaken in four of the five areas when compared with the previous quarter. The most notable decline of 13 percentage points is reported in Laval*, while Outlooks are 11 and seven percentage points weaker in Cantons de L’Est and Montreal, respectively. However, Quebec City employers report an improvement of five percentage points.

Year-over-year, employers also report weaker hiring intentions in four of the five areas, most notably with declines of 13 and five percentage points in Laval* and Cantons de L’Est, respectively. Meanwhile, the Outlook for Quebec City improves by 22 percentage points.


SeasonallyAdjusted


% % % %%%

Construction 0 14 79 -147 -12


Education 14 0 86 14 70



Manufacturing – Non-Durables 6 12 82 0 2-6

Mining 4 15 81 0 -2-11

Public Administration 0 17 75 -17 -58Services 10 12 76 2 -2 2


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Western Canada +12 (12)%Reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +12%, employers anticipate a steady hiring pace in the October-December time frame. However, the Outlook is the weakest reported since Quarter 2 2010, declining by three and six percentage points quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, respectively.

Payrolls are forecast to grow in nine of the 10 industry sectors during the coming quarter. Transportation & Public Utilities sector employers report the strongest hiring intentions with an Outlook of +24%. Elsewhere, employers report Outlooks of +16% in both the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector and the Public Administration sector, where hiring prospects are the strongest since Quarter 4 2008. Respectable job gains are anticipated in the Mining sector, with an Outlook of +14%, and in the Wholesale & Retail Trade sector, where the Outlook stands at +13%. Services sector employers report an Outlook of +11% and a fair hiring pace is expected in both the Manufacturing − Durables sector and the Manufacturing − Non-Durables sector, with Outlooks standing at +9%. Meanwhile, Construction sector employers report sluggish hiring intentions with an Outlook of -7%, the weakest – and first negative – forecast since the analysis was first carried out in Quarter 1 2004.

When compared with the previous quarter, Outlooks decline in six of the 10 industry sectors, with the most noteworthy decrease of 37 percentage points reported in the Construction sector. Manufacturing − Durables sector employers report a decline of 12 percentage points while Outlooks are six and five percentage points weaker in the Education sector and the Mining sector, respectively. Elsewhere, Outlooks strengthen in four sectors, including the Transportation & Public Utilities sector, with an increase of six percentage points.

Hiring prospects weaken in seven of the 10 industry sectors when compared with Quarter 4 2013. Construction

sector employers report a steep decline of 39 percentage points while Outlooks are eight and seven percentage points weaker in the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector and the Education sector, respectively. Hiring plans decline by six percentage points for the Mining sector and five percentage points in the Manufacturing − Durables sector. However, employers in three sectors report improved hiring intentions, most notably by four percentage points in the Public Administration sector.

Job seekers can expect hiring opportunities in 10 of the 11 areas during the coming quarter. The most favourable Outlooks of +19% are reported in Red Deer, Surrey and Victoria & Capital Regional District. Upbeat hiring plans are also evident in Richmond-Delta and Calgary where Outlooks stand at +18% and +17%, respectively. However, payrolls are expected to decline in Vancouver where the Outlook stands at -3%.

When compared with the previous quarter, hiring intentions weaken in seven of the 11 areas. Red Deer employers report a decline of 13 percentage points while the Edmonton Outlook decreases by 12 percentage points. Hiring plans are seven percentage points weaker in Saskatoon and decline by five percentage points in both Richmond-Delta and Vancouver. Meanwhile, Outlooks improve in three areas, most notably by eight and six percentage points in Victoria & Capital Regional District and Burnaby-Coquitlam, respectively.

Hiring intentions strengthen in five of the 11 areas year-over-year, with the most noteworthy improvements of seven and five percentage points in Victoria & Capital Regional District and Burnaby-Coquitlam, respectively. However, Outlooks also decline in five areas. The Regina Outlook is 22 percentage points weaker and decreases of 20 and 18 percentage points are reported for Edmonton and Vancouver, respectively.


SeasonallyAdjusted


% % % %%%

Construction 16 14 67 23 -7


Education 17 3 77 14 83



Manufacturing – Non-Durables 11 4 78 7 97

Mining 24 4 69 3 1420




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Sector ComparisonsEmployers forecast payroll gains in all 10 industry sectors during the next three months. The most upbeat hiring intentions are reported in the Public Administration sector with a Net Employment Outlook of +16%. Steady job growth is also forecast for the Transportation & Public Utilities sector and the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector, with Outlooks of +13% and +12%, respectively. Some hiring opportunities are anticipated in the Services sector, with an Outlook of +9%, and in both the Education sector and the Manufacturing − Durables sector, where Outlooks stand at +8%. Elsewhere, Manufacturing – Non-Durables sector employers report the most cautious Outlook of +1%.

Quarter-over-quarter, hiring plans weaken in six of the 10 industry sectors. The most noteworthy Outlook declines of nine and seven percentage points are reported for the Manufacturing − Durables sector

and the Education sector, respectively. Hiring intentions are six percentage points weaker in both the Construction sector and the Transportation & Public Utilities sector. Meanwhile, employers report no change in the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector, the Manufacturing – Non-Durables sector and the Mining sector, and the Services sector and Public Administration sector Outlooks remain relatively stable.

Year-over-year, hiring prospects also weaken in six of the 10 industry sectors. The Construction sector Outlook declines by a steep margin of 21 percentage points and Outlooks decrease by seven and six percentage points in the Wholesale & Retail Trade sector and the Manufacturing − Non-Durables sector, respectively. However, employers in three sectors report improved hiring plans, most notably in the Public Administration sector where the Outlook is 10 percentage points stronger.

-5 20

Net Employment Outlook Seasonally Adjusted

6 8

9 13

-15

-21

7 7

8 16

5 9

1212

11 8

5 2

0 5 10 15

Construction

Education

Manufacturing – Durables

Manufacturing – Non-Durables

Mining

Public Administration

Services

Wholesale and Retail Trade

Finance, Insurance & Real Estate

Transportation & Public Utilities

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With a Net Employment Outlook of +5% employers anticipate some job gains in the upcoming quarter. However, the Outlook is the weakest reported since

Quarter 3 2009. Hiring prospects decline by six percentage points quarter-over-quarter and are 21 percentage points weaker year-over-year.

Construction -1 (5)%

-40-30-20-10

0102030405060



Education +11 (8)%Employers report some encouraging signs for job seekers in the next three months, with a Net Employment Outlook of +8%. Hiring intentions

weaken by seven percentage points when compared with the previous quarter but are three percentage points stronger year-over-year.

Finance, Insurance & Real Estate +12 (12)%Steady hiring activity is expected to continue in the October-December time frame with employers reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +12%. Hiring

prospects are unchanged both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year.

-40-30-20-10

010203040



-10

30

-505

10152025




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Job seekers can expect a fair hiring climate in the coming quarter with employers reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +8%. However, hiring

intentions decline by nine and three percentage points quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, respectively.

Manufacturing – Durable Goods +6 (8)%

-20

-10

0

10

20

30



Manufacturing – Non-Durable Goods -2 (1)%The cautious hiring pace is forecast to continue in Quarter 4 2014 with employers reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +1% for the second

consecutive quarter. However, the Outlook is six percentage points weaker year-over-year.

Mining +7 (7)%With a Net Employment Outlook of +7%, employers report encouraging signs for job seekers in the forthcoming quarter. Hiring intentions are unchanged

when compared with the previous quarter and remain relatively stable year-over-year.

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40



-30-20-10

01020304050



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Job seekers can expect to benefit from an upbeat hiring pace in Quarter 4 2014 with employers reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +16%. Hiring prospects

remain relatively stable quarter-over-quarter and improve by 10 percentage points year-over-year.

Public Administration +8 (16)%

-30-20-10

01020304050


Services +5 (9)%Employers report cautiously optimistic hiring plans for the October-December time frame with a Net Employment Outlook of +9%. Hiring intentions

remain relatively stable both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year.

Transportation & Public Utilities +9 (13)%Respectable hiring activity is forecast for the next three months with employers reporting a Net Employment Outlook of +13%. However,

hiring intentions weaken by six and three percentage points quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, respectively.

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40



-30-20-10

01020304050




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Hiring plans are three percentage points weaker when compared with the previous quarter and decline by seven percentage points year-over-year.

Job seekers can expect the weakest labour market since Quarter 3 2009 during the coming quarter, according to employers who report an Outlook of +5%.

Wholesale & Retail Trade +2 (5)%

When compared with the previous quarter, hiring intentions weaken by five percentage points in the Small-size organization category and decline by three percentage points for both Medium- and Large-size businesses. Employers in Micro-size firms report relatively stable hiring plans.

Year-over-year, employers report weaker hiring prospects in the Small- and Micro-size organization categories, with Outlooks declining by five and four percentage points, respectively. The Medium-size Outlook decreases by two percentage points, while hiring plans remain relatively stable for Large-size organizations.

Participating employers are categorized into one of four organization sizes: Micro businesses have less than 10 employees; Small businesses have 10-49 employees; Medium businesses have 50-249 employees; and Large businesses have 250 or more employees.

Job gains are forecast in all four organization-size categories for the upcoming quarter. Steady payroll gains are anticipated by employers in both Large- and Medium-size organizations, with Net Employment Outlooks standing at +15%. Employers in Small-size firms expect some job gains, reporting an Outlook of +5% while the Outlook for Micro-size businesses is +2%.

Organization-Size Comparisons

-30-20-10

01020304050



IncreaseOrganization-Size Decrease No Change Don’t Know Net EmploymentOutlook

SeasonallyAdjusted

% % % % % %

Large-Size 250 or more 20 7 69 4 13 15

Medium-Size 50-249 18 8 73 1 10 15

Small-Size 10-49 11 9 78 2 2 5

Micro-Size less than 10 6 6 87 1 0 2

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Global Employment OutlookOver 65,000 employers across 42 countries and territories have been interviewed to measure anticipated labour market activity* between October and December 2014. All participants were asked, “How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of December 2014 as compared to the current quarter?”

The fourth-quarter results provide little evidence of a pronounced overriding trend in the global labour market when compared to the prior quarter or last year at this time. There are, however, noteworthy developments in individual country and territory reports. The Greek forecast, for instance, continues the climb that started two years ago, and employer confidence in the U.S. continues to grow steadily. Yet while employers in both Brazil and China expect to boost payrolls, the fourth-quarter reports suggest they will do so at a pace far below historical levels. And labour market momentum has stalled in Ireland and Spain as Outlooks in both countries slip once again into negative territory.

From a global perspective, hiring plans are mostly positive with employers in 36 of the 42 countries and territories expecting to add to their workforces in the October-December time frame. Forecasts, however, are softer when compared to the Quarter 3 2014 results, with Outlooks improving in only 15 of 42 countries and territories. Still, employers expect to finish the year on a more confident note than they did in 2013, with Outlooks strengthening in 29 countries and territories year-over-year and declining in only 12. Fourth-quarter hiring confidence is strongest in India, Taiwan and New Zealand, while the weakest and only negative forecasts are reported in Spain, Italy, Ireland, the Czech Republic and Finland.

Across the Europe, Middle East & Africa (EMEA) region job prospects are mixed: Employers in 18 of 24 countries forecast payroll gains in the quarter ahead, while employers in five countries expect staffing levels

to decline. The hiring forecast improves in nine countries quarter-over-quarter, but strengthens in a year-over-year comparison in 20. Turkish employers report the region’s most optimistic hiring plans while the weakest forecast is reported in Spain.

Payrolls are expected to increase in all eight Asia Pacific countries and territories in the next three months. Forecasts are stronger in three countries and territories in comparison to Quarter 3 2014, weaken in another three and are unchanged in two. Employer hiring confidence is stronger in a year-over-year comparison in six countries and territories and declines in only two. The strongest hiring plans – as well as the most optimistic across the globe – are reported by employers in India, while the weakest Asia Pacific forecast is reported in mainland China.

Employers across the 10 countries surveyed in the Americas continue to report positive Net Employment Outlooks. However, hiring activity is expected to be marginally weaker in comparison to both Quarter 3 2014 and last year at this time. When compared with the previous quarter, Net Employment Outlooks improve in only three countries and decline in six. The year-over-year comparison trends similarly with forecasts improving in only three countries and declining in the remaining seven. Employers in Colombia report the strongest fourth-quarter hiring plans while job seekers in Costa Rica can expect the weakest jobs growth.

Full survey results for each of the 42 countries and territories included in this quarter’s survey, plus regional and global comparisons, can be found at

http://manpowergroup.com/press/meos_landing.cfm.

The next Manpower Employment Outlook Survey will be released on 9 December 2014 to report hiring expectations for the first quarter of 2015.

* Commentary is based on seasonally adjusted data where available. Data is not seasonally adjusted for Bulgaria, Finland, Israel, Slovakia, Slovenia and Turkey.

Survey Respondents by Region

Asia Pacific23%

EMEA31%

Americas46%

For the Quarter 4 2014 research ManpowerGroup surveyed more than 65,000 human resources directors and senior hiring managers from public and private organizations worldwide: 46% of respondents come from 10 countries in the Americas; 23% from eight countries and territories across Asia Pacific; and 31% from 24 countries in EMEA.


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9 (9)1

5 (5)1

3 (3)1

%

10 (10)1

15 (18)1

27 (26)1

16 (15)1

43 (46)1

17 (16)1

41 (40)1

5 (8)1

16 (16)1

11 (11)1

2 (1)1

5 (5)1

0 (0)1

3 (3)1

-3 (-2)1

5 (5)1

-5 (-4)1

5 (6)1

15

-6 (-3)1

-4 (-5)1

1 (3)1

5 (4)1

2 (1)1

1 (1)1

1 (0)1

0 (0)1

-8 (-1)1

-3 (-3)1

-2 (1)1

-5 (-4)1

4 (4)1

4 (4)1

7 (7)1

3 (3)1

9 (9)1

1 (1)1

3 (3)1

-4 (-4)1

4 (4)1

3 -11 -1

5 (4)1 -7 (-12)1 -8 (-8)120 (18)1 6 (4)1 5 (5)1

12 (15)1 -6 (1)1 2 (2)1

-2 (-2)1 -5 (-2)1 -2 (-2)1

3 (8)1 -10 (1)1 7 (8)1

3 (4)1 -7 (-4)1 6 (6)1

5 (7)1 -6 (-1)1 0 (3)12 -8 22 -3 1

5 (6)1 -4 (2)1 2 (2)1

1 (9)1 -15 (0)1 1 (4)1

-11 (-2)1

1 (2)1

-7 (-5)1

-3 (-3)1

5 (7)1 -7 (-2)1 -8 (-11)13 (5)1 -5 (-4)1 -3 (-3)1

2 (1)113 (11)1 4 (0)1 -5 (-5)1

-6 (-6)121 (16)1 3 (-1)1 -3 (-4)1

†EMEA – Europe, Middle East and Africa.

1. Number in parentheses is the Net Employment Outlook when adjusted to remove theimpact of seasonal variations in hiring activity. Please note that this data is not available for all countries as a minimum of 17 quarters worth of data is required.

1 (2)1

-1 (0)12 (2)1

-1 -7 5

2 (2)1

0 (1)1

1 (0)1

-6 (-3)1

-2 (0)1

-10 (-5)1

-1 (1)1

-11

-1 (5)1

2 (2)1

5 (5)1

1 (1)1

8 1 2

1 (1)1

2 (2)1

4 (4)1

-37 (6)1 -2 (-2)1 0 (0)1

11 (11)1

* Indicates unadjusted data.

Quarter 4 2014 Net Employment Outlook

-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

-10 -5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50

India

Taiwan

New Zealand

Colombia

Japan

Mexico

Panama

Singapore

Hong Kong

Turkey

United States

Guatemala

Peru

Australia

China

Romania

Canada

Greece

Israel

Brazil

South Africa

Poland

Sweden

United Kingdom

Argentina

Austria

Germany

Norway

Costa Rica

Hungary

Belgium

Bulgaria

Switzerland

Slovakia

Slovenia

France

Netherlands

Finland

Czech Republic

Ireland

Italy

Spain

+46%

+40%

+26%

+18%

+18%

+16%

+16%

+16%

+15%

+15%*

+15%

+11%

+11%

+10%

+9%

+9%

+8%

+8%*

+8%

+7%

+7%

+6%

+6%

+6%

+5%

+5%

+5%

+5%

+4%

+4%

+3%

+3%*

+3%

+2%*

+2%*

+1%

0%

-1%*

-2%

-2%

-3%

-4%

Quarter 4 2014Qtr on Qtr Change

Q3 2014 to Q4 2014 Yr on Yr Change

Q4 2013 to Q4 2014

Americas

Asia PacificAustralia

China

Hong Kong

Japan

India

New Zealand

Singapore

Taiwan

EMEA†

Austria

Belgium

Bulgaria

Costa Rica

Colombia

United States

Czech Republic

Greece

Hungary

South Africa

SloveniaSlovakia

PolandRomania

Canada

Mexico

Peru

Brazil

Argentina

Guatemala

Panama

France

Germany

Finland

Ireland

Netherlands

Norway

Spain

Turkey

Italy

Switzerland

Sweden

Israel

UK

13


CLIeNT: MANpOweR


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Nearly 30,000 employers were surveyed from 10 countries throughout North, Central and South America to measure anticipated hiring activity for Quarter 4 2014. Hiring expectations are positive in each country, but are trending softer as Outlooks decline by varying margins from Quarter 3 2014 in six countries and improve in only three. The year-over-year comparison reveals similarly weak momentum with Outlooks declining in seven countries and improving in three.

Opportunities for job seekers are expected to be strongest in Colombia fuelled in large part by surges in employer confidence in both the Construction and Public Administration/Education industry sectors. The hiring pace is also expected to be active in the Services and the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sectors. The weakest forecast for the Americas is reported by employers in Costa Rica where the hiring pace remains positive but sinks to its weakest level in five years.

Employer confidence in the U.S. continues to grow steadily and the Net Employment Outlook now stands at its most optimistic level since Quarter 2 2008. For the seventh consecutive quarter opportunities for job seekers are expected to be strongest in the Leisure & Hospitality sector. The improvement in hiring confidence is growing more broad-based as job prospects continue to expand in the majority of industry sectors in both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year comparisons. Employer confidence in the Midwest, South and West regions is also the strongest in more than six years.

International Comparisons – AmericasJob prospects in Canada are expected to remain positive in all industry sectors and regions, although the country’s jobs forecast is weaker than at any point since Quarter 2 2010. Outlooks in Canada’s Construction sector and the Wholesale & Retail Trade sector have declined to their weakest levels in more than five years.

Unfortunately, declining employer hiring confidence is expected to continue handicapping job seekers in Brazil. Despite positive forecasts in each of Brazil’s industry sectors and regions, the country’s once robust pace of job creation continues to slow. Following 12 consecutive quarters of steady decline, Brazil’s Net Employment Outlook now sits at its least optimistic level since the survey was launched in Quarter 4 2009.

Conversely, a sharp improvement in Mexico’s Mining & Extraction sector forecast is expected to help keep the hiring pace steady in the months ahead. The overall Net Employment Outlook is also buoyed by upbeat forecasts in the Manufacturing, Services and Transportation & Communication sectors.

Demand for new employees in Argentina is expected to ease in comparison to three months ago and last year at this time. However, despite uncertainties associated with potential bond issues and the effect this may have on external borrowing and inflation concerns, hiring plans remain positive in each of the country’s industry sectors and regions.

Argentina50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

Argentina joined the survey in Q1 2007.

Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Brazil50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

Brazil joined the survey in Q4 2009.


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


14


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Costa Rica50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

Costa Rica joined the survey in Q3 2006.


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Mexico50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20



2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

USA50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20



2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Guatemala50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

Guatemala joined the survey in Q2 2008.


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Panama50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

Panama joined the survey in Q2 2010.

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


Peru60

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

Peru joined the survey in Q2 2006.


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Canada50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Colombia

Colombia joined the survey in Q4 2008.

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

15


CLIeNT: MANpOweR


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ManpowerGroup interviewed nearly 15,500 employers in eight countries and territories across the Asia Pacific region to measure hiring plans in Quarter 4 2014.

Opportunities for job seekers are expected to remain positive across the region, with the strongest hiring plans again reported by employers in India, Taiwan and New Zealand. Outlooks are stronger in three countries and territories in comparison to Quarter 3 2014, weaker in another three and are unchanged in two, but improve in six countries and territories when compared year-over-year.

For the third consecutive quarter, employers in India report the most optimistic forecast among all 42 countries and territories participating in the survey. Nearly half report that they plan to add to their workforces by the year’s end, and employers in all industry sectors and in all organization-size categories forecast a vigorous fourth-quarter hiring pace. However, the talent supply is expected to remain extremely tight, and employers will be further challenged by a growing trend among Indian professionals to walk away from high-paying jobs to pursue entrepreneurial opportunities.

Taiwanese job seekers can look forward to a similarly robust hiring environment. Employers in the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector report the strongest Outlook since Taiwan’s survey started in Quarter 2 2005. Job prospects also climb considerably from year-ago levels in the Manufacturing and the Wholesale & Retail Trade sectors. Meanwhile, optimism among

International Comparisons – Asia PacificNew Zealand’s employers remains solid, boosted in part by the strongest Services sector Outlook to date and bright expectations in the Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector.

Hiring confidence among employers in Japan continues to climb steadily. The country’s Outlook is now the strongest since Quarter 2 2008, and job seekers in the Mining & Construction sector are likely to benefit from the strongest forecast in the sector since the survey’s launch in 2003.

The forecast is not as bright in China where employers report the weakest hiring plans in over five years, as well as the weakest job prospects in the Asia Pacific region. Although Outlooks remain positive in all industry sectors and regions, most forecasts are weaker in both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year comparisons. Hiring plans weaken in the Manufacturing and the Wholesale & Retail Trade sectors in comparison to both the prior quarter and last year at this time. And the country’s Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector forecast has now declined for three consecutive quarters as employers may be responding to the country’s rapidly cooling property markets.

Job growth is expected to remain steady elsewhere in the region. Finance, Insurance & Real Estate sector employers in both Australia and Singapore are expecting the most fourth-quarter hiring activity, while an active labour market in the Services sector is expected to buoy the Hong Kong forecast.

Australia50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20



2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

China

China joined the survey in Q2 2005.

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


16


CLIeNT: MANpOweR


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Japan50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Singapore


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

-60-50-40-30-20-10

010203040506070

New Zealand50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

New Zealand joined the survey in Q2 2004.No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Taiwan50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

Taiwan joined the survey in Q2 2005.


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Hong Kong50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20



2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

India50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

India joined the survey in Q3 2005.


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

17


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quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year, boosted by upbeat reports in the Transport, Storage & Communication and the Wholesale & Retail Trade sectors.

The Belgian Outlook rebounds from last quarter’s negative forecast, fuelled in part by the strongest hiring plans in the Transport, Storage & Communication sector since Quarter 1 2012. Similarly, the Outlook in France turns positive again thanks to considerable year-over-year improvements in the Transport, Storage & Communications, and the Electricity, Gas & Water sectors.

The fourth-quarter results show that the Greek labour market is expected to continue the upward trend that began in Quarter 4 2012, with the strongest job prospects reported by employers in the Finance & Business Services and the Transport, Storage & Communication sectors.

Elsewhere, employers in Turkey continue to expect the region’s most active hiring pace based on continuing strong labour demand in the Manufacturing and Pharmaceutical sectors. Hiring activity in the Nordic countries is mixed with employers in both Norway and Sweden expecting some opportunities for job seekers, while the forecast in Finland again turns negative. Israeli employers continue to anticipate some opportunities for job seekers despite ongoing tensions in the region, while the South African Outlook remains cautiously optimistic although forecasts decline by varying margins in most industry sectors and regions.

More than 20,000 employers in 24 countries in the Europe, Middle East and Africa (EMEA) region were surveyed to measure anticipated hiring activity in the last three months of 2014.

Across the region, fourth-quarter hiring patterns remain mixed. Positive Outlooks are reported in 18 of 24 countries, compared to 19 of 24 in the July-September time frame. Outlooks improve in nine countries in a quarter-over-quarter comparison, but improve in 20 countries year-over-year. Hiring plans remain positive in Greece where the Outlook climbs to its strongest level in six years. Unfortunately, employment prospects in Ireland and Spain have once again slipped into negative territory following two consecutive quarters of positive forecasts.

Job prospects are strongest in Turkey, Romania, Greece and Israel. The weakest – and only negative – forecasts are reported by employers in Spain, Italy, the Czech Republic, Ireland and Finland.

The hiring pace in the United Kingdom is expected to slow slightly in the fourth quarter, but employers still anticipate some gains for job seekers, particularly in the Finance & Business Services and the Electricity, Gas & Water sectors. Employers are also cautiously optimistic in Germany where – despite a recent downturn in factory orders – a moderate rebound in the Manufacturing forecast has employers there anticipating the strongest labour demand since Quarter 1 2012. Meanwhile, Poland’s forecast improves slightly both

International Comparisons – EMEA

Austria50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20



2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Belgium50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20



2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


18


CLIeNT: MANpOweR


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Germany50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Hungary50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

Hungary joined the survey in Q3 2009.No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Greece50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

Greece joined the survey in Q2 2008.No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.

Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted OutlookNet Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Ireland50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20



2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

France50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20



2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Finland50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

Finland joined the survey in Q4 2012.

Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Bulgaria50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

Bulgaria joined the survey in Q1 2011.


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Czech Republic50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

Czech Republic joined the survey in Q2 2008.No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

19


CLIeNT: MANpOweR


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Norway50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Poland50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

Poland joined the survey in Q2 2008.No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Romania50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

Romania joined the survey in Q2 2008.No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Slovakia

Slovakia joined the survey in Q4 2011.

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Slovenia

Slovenia joined the survey in Q1 2011.No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20Net Employment OutlookNet Employment Outlook

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Italy50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20


Seasonally Adjusted OutlookSeasonally Adjusted Outlook


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Netherlands50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20



2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Israel50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

Israel joined the survey in Q4 2011.


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014


20


CLIeNT: MANpOweR


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UK50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20



2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Spain


50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Switzerland

Switzerland joined the survey in Q3 2005.No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.

50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Turkey50

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

Turkey joined the survey in Q1 2011.


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Sweden


50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

South Africa50

40

30

20

10

0

-10


2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

South Africa joined the survey in Q4 2006.No bar indicates Net Employment Outlook of zero.

21


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The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted quarterly to measure employers’ intentions to increase or decrease the number of employees in their workforces during the next quarter. ManpowerGroup’s comprehensive forecast of employer hiring plans has been running for more than 50 years and is one of the most trusted surveys of employment activity in the world. Various factors underpin the success of the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey:

Unique: It is unparalleled in its size, scope, longevity and area of focus.

Projective: The Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is the most extensive, forward-looking employment survey in the world, asking employers to forecast employment over the next quarter. In contrast, other surveys and studies focus on retrospective data to report on what occurred in the past.

Independent: The survey is conducted with a representative sample of employers from throughout the countries and territories in which it is conducted. The survey participants are not derived from ManpowerGroup’s customer base.

Robust: The survey is based on interviews with over 65,000 public and private employers across 42 countries and territories to measure anticipated employment trends each quarter. This sample allows for analysis to be performed across specific sectors and regions to provide more detailed information.

Focused: For more than five decades the survey has derived all of its information from a single question.

Survey QuestionFor the Quarter 4 2014 research, all employers participating in the survey worldwide are asked the same question, “How do you anticipate total employment at your location to change in the three months to the end of December 2014 as compared to the current quarter?”

MethodologyThe Manpower Employment Outlook Survey is conducted using a validated methodology, in accordance with the highest standards in market research. The research team for the 42 countries and territories where the survey is currently conducted includes ManpowerGroup’s internal research team and Infocorp Ltd. The survey has been structured to be representative of each national economy. The margin of error for all national, regional and global data is not greater than +/- 3.9%.

The margin of error for the Canadian survey is +/- 2.2%.

Net Employment OutlookThroughout this report, we use the term “Net Employment Outlook.” This figure is derived by taking the percentage of employers anticipating an increase in hiring activity and subtracting from this the percentage of employers expecting to see a decrease in employment at their location in the next quarter. The result of this calculation is the Net Employment Outlook. Net Employment Outlooks for countries and territories that have accumulated at least 17 quarters of data are reported in a seasonally adjusted format unless otherwise stated.

Seasonal AdjustmentSeasonal adjustments have been applied to the data for Argentina, Australia, Austria, Belgium, Brazil, Canada, China, Colombia, Costa Rica, the Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Guatemala, Hong Kong, Hungary, India, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Mexico, Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Panama, Peru, Poland, Romania, Singapore, South Africa, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Taiwan, the United Kingdom and the United States to provide additional insight into the survey data. These adjustments make it possible to review the data without the employment fluctuations that normally occur at the same time each year, thus providing a clearer picture of the data over time. ManpowerGroup intends to add seasonal adjustments to the data for other countries in the future, as more historical data is compiled. Note that in Quarter 2 2008, ManpowerGroup adopted the TRAMO-SEATS method of seasonal adjustment for data.

About the Survey


CLIeNT: MANpOweR


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Manpower, 4950 Yonge Street, Suite 700, Toronto, Ontario, M2N 6K1Tel: 416 225 4455www.manpower.ca

© 2014, ManpowerGroup. All rights reserved.

About ManpowerGroupTM

ManpowerGroup™ (NYSE: MAN) has been the world’s workforce expert, creating innovative workforce solutions, for more than 65 years. As workforce experts, we connect more than 600,000 men and women to meaningful work across a wide range of skills and industries every day. Through our ManpowerGroup family of brands – Manpower®, Experis™, Right Management® and ManpowerGroup™ Solutions – we help more than 400,000 clients in 80 countries and territories address their critical talent needs, providing comprehensive solutions to resource, manage and develop talent. In 2014, ManpowerGroup was named one of the World’s Most Ethical Companies for the fourth consecutive year and one of Fortune’s Most Admired Companies, confirming our position as the most trusted and admired brand in the industry. See how ManpowerGroup makes powering the world of work humanly possible: www.manpowergroup.ca

About Manpower CanadaWith nearly 40 offices strategically located across the country, Manpower Canada’s staffing services include administrative, industrial, skilled trades and contact centre personnel as well as the assignment of contract professionals in information technology, scientific, finance, engineering, telecommunications and other professional areas under the Experis brand. More information can be found on the following websites, manpower.ca and experis.ca

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