q3 2016 earnings presentation - catalyst paper...q3 2016 earnings presentation presented by: joe...
TRANSCRIPT
Presented by:
Kevin J. Clarke,
President & CEO
Brian Baarda,
VP Finance & CFO
May 7, 2013
March 6, 2013
Q3 2016
EARNINGS
PRESENTATION
Presented by:
Joe Nemeth, President & CEO
Gerrie Kotze, VP, Finance
November 9, 2016
1
The presentation and answers to questions today contain forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements
that address or discuss activities, events or developments that we expect or anticipate may occur in the future and can be
identified by the use of words such as “believe”, “expect”, “anticipate”, “intend”, “plan”, “likely”, “predicts”, “estimates”, “forecasts”,
and similar words or phrases or the negative of such words or phrases. These forward-looking statements reflect our current
beliefs, intentions or expectations based on certain assumptions and estimates, which could prove to be significantly incorrect,
including our ability to develop, manufacture and sell new products and services that meet the needs of our customers and gain
commercial acceptance, our ability to continue to sell our products and services in the expected quantities at the expected prices
and expected times, our ability to successfully obtain cost savings from our cost reduction initiatives, our ability to implement
business strategies and pursue opportunities, expected cost of goods sold, expected component supply costs and constraints and
expected foreign exchange and tax rates.
While considered reasonable by management, these forward-looking statements are inherently subject to known and unknown
risks and uncertainties and other factors that could cause actual results or events to differ from historical or anticipated results or
events. These risks, uncertainties and other factors include the impact of general economic conditions in the countries in which we
do business, conditions in the capital markets and our ability to obtain financing and refinance existing debt, market conditions and
demand for our products (including declines in advertising and circulation), product selling prices, the implementation of trade
restrictions in jurisdictions where our products are marketed, fluctuations in foreign exchange or interest rates, raw material prices
(including wood fibre, chemicals and energy), our ability to successfully obtain cost savings from our cost reduction initiatives, the
effect of, or change in, environmental and other governmental regulations, labour relations, the availability of qualified personnel,
legal proceedings, the effects of competition from domestic and foreign producers, our ability to implement business strategies and
pursue opportunities, the risk of natural disaster and other factors beyond our control.
As a result, no assurance can be given that any of the events or results anticipated by such forward-looking statements will occur
or, if they do occur, what benefit they will have on our operations or financial condition. Readers are cautioned not to place undue
reliance on these forward-looking statements. We disclaim any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking
statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
2
Except where otherwise indicated, the financial information in this presentation is determined on
the basis of US GAAP.
“Adjusted EBITDA” is a non-GAAP measure, calculated as operating earnings (loss) plus
depreciation and amortization and impairment. We focus on adjusted EBITDA as we believe this
measure enables comparison of our results between periods without regard to debt service,
income taxes, capital expenditure requirements, and impairment.
“Adjusted EBITDA before specific items”, “net earnings (loss) before specific items”, and “net
earnings (loss) per share before specific items” are non-GAAP measures. We use measures
excluding specific items in evaluating our results between periods without regard to specific
items that adversely or positively affect our adjusted EBITDA and net earnings (loss).
“Free cash flow” is a non-GAAP measure, calculated as adjusted EBITDA after capital
expenditures, interest and taxes paid, and adjustments to reflect employee future benefit
payments. The closest GAAP measure is cash provided by operating activities less cash used
by investing activities. We report free cash flow as we believe it is useful for investors and other
users to be aware of this measure so they can better assess our operating performance.
NON-GAAP MEASURES
3
Q3 2016 OVERVIEW
4
• Catalyst reported significantly improved earnings in the third
quarter:
− Despite non-cash impairment write-down of $186.4 million at
our Canadian paper mills.
− Net earnings before non-cash impairment write-down and
other significant items was $7.6 million
• Positive third quarter operating results:
− Adjusted EBITDA of $31.9 million (vs negative $5.3 million Q2)
− Free cash flow of $9.8 million (vs negative $30.0 million Q2)
− Liquidity of $77.5 million
Q3 2016 OVERVIEW:
Operations
5
Safety:
• Medical Incident Rate (MIR): 3.06 (Q3), 2.41 (YTD)
• Lost Time Incident Rate (LTI): 1.29 (Q3), 0.92 (YTD)
Operations:
• $63.1 million OFI savings year-to-date
- Cost Reduction (Mill Revitalization Program)
- Top Line Growth (product mix optimization, supply chain
initiatives and new specialty paper sales growth)
• Discontinuance of lawsuits filed against Catalyst by the Halalt
First Nation, Sunvault Energy Inc., and Aboriginal Power
Corp.
Q3 2016 OVERVIEW:
Sales & Markets
6
Top-Line Improvement Initiatives:
• Strong sales of Coated One Side
- Sales increased by more than 50% over same period of
2015
• Commercialized Glide Graphics
- New specialty grade for large-size graphic applications
- Ongoing product development and innovation
• NBSK pulp demand was steady in the quarter; prices traded
in a narrow range
CVD Update:
• Preliminary Results of the Expedited Review delayed;
decision public Nov. 17, 2016
Q3 2016 OVERVIEW:
Sales & Markets
7
Sustainability Achievement:
• Earned the prestigious EarthCare Award presented by
Sierra Club U.S.
- Recognizes Catalyst’s role in establishing the Great
Bear Rainforest, one of the world’s largest remaining
relatively intact temperate rainforest areas
Q3 2016 OVERVIEW:
KGI & Alternate Recap Plan Update
8
KGI & Alternate Recapitalization Plan
• May 23: Principal Securityholders and KGI enter into letter of
intent
• June 30: Principal Securityholders and KGI enter into Support
Agreement
• Aug 16: Principal Securityholders and KGI amend Support
Agreement
• Oct 26: Catalyst announces receipt of an alternative recapitalization
plan
• Oct. 31: Catalyst enters into a Support Agreement with its Principal
Securityholders related to the proposed alternate
recapitalization plan
Both Plans Would Benefit Catalyst
• Strengthen the company’s financial position
• Provide certainty for the future
• Enable the company to pursue transformational
initiatives
9 9
FINANCIAL RESULTS
($millions, except per share amounts) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
Sales $ 479.3 $ 458.4 $ 542.6 $ 510.8 $ 510.4 $ 460.8 $ 502.7
Adjusted EBITDA 14.0 (19.2) 38.8 15.1 17.1 (5.3) 31.9
Adjusted EBITDA before specific items 16.0 9.7 41.2 19.8 17.7 (1.1) 35.3
Adjusted EBITDA margin before specific items 3.3% 2.1% 7.6% 3.9% 3.5% -0.2% 7.0%
Net earnings (loss) $ 22.2 $ (32.4) $ (12.9) $ (26.3) $ 16.9 $ (26.6) $ (185.0)
Net earnings (loss) before specific items (12.6) (13.8) 8.4 (10.0) (5.1) (27.3) 7.6
EPS 1.53 (2.23) (0.89) (1.82) 1.17 (1.84) (12.76)
EPS before specific items (0.87) (0.95) 0.58 (0.69) (0.35) (1.88) 0.52
Average F/X spot rate (USD/CAD) 0.806 0.813 0.768 0.749 0.728 0.776 0.766
Average effective F/X rate (USD/CAD) 0.805 0.813 0.763 0.749 0.728 0.776 0.766
2015 2016
10 10
ADJUSTED EBITDA RECONCILIATION
1 Refer to section 6, Non-GAAP measures.
FREE CASH FLOW
11
($millions) Q1 Q2 Q3
Adjusted EBITDA 14.0 (19.2) 38.8 15.1 17.1 (5.3) 31.9
Interest expense, excluding amortization (11.4) (10.2) (12.4) (11.1) (11.0) (10.9) (11.7)
Capital expenditures (10.4) (11.1) (2.9) (10.1) (5.1) (10.3) (3.1)
Income taxes paid - - - - - (0.1) -
Employee future benefits, net of funding (0.3) (1.0) (0.1) (5.3) (2.7) (3.4) (7.3)
Free cash flow $ (8.1) $ (41.5) $ 23.4 $ (11.4) $ (1.7) $ (30.0) $ 9.8
2016
Q1
2015
Q4Q2 Q3
LIQUIDITY
12
($millions) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3
Borrowing base 1 $ 225.0 $ 212.7 $ 225.0 $ 225.0 $ 225.0 $ 226.2 $ 244.5
Letters of credit (22.0) (21.8) (22.1) (22.4) (24.4) (24.1) (23.2)
Net amount drawn (111.3) (114.0) (121.7) (117.1) (125.0) (135.9) (150.3)
Availablily 91.7 76.9 81.2 85.5 75.6 66.2 71.0
Cash on hand 9.9 8.7 5.0 8.3 8.4 8.3 6.5
Total liquidity $ 101.6 $ 85.6 $ 86.2 $ 93.8 $ 84.0 $ 74.5 $ 77.5
2016
1 The borrowing base at September 30, 2016, is reduced by reserves for a landlord waiver reserve in respect of rent of
approximately $2.7 million, a pension reserve not exceeding the sum of normal cost pension contributions, special and
catch-up payments and any other payments in respect of a Canadian pension plan that are past due of approximately
$1.4 million, a reserve for credit insurance deductibles of $3.2 million, a reserve for vacation pay of $3.1 million, a reserve
of $1.5 million for employee source deductions, and a reserve of $0.3 million for workers’ compensation costs.
2015
PLANNED MAJOR MAINTENANCE:
2016 Shutdowns
13
2016
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Total
Mill Location Tonnage
Impact
Mtce Cost
($mm) Tonnage
Impact
Mtce Cost
($mm) Tonnage
Impact
Mtce Cost
($mm) Tonnage
Impact
Mtce Cost
($mm) Tonnage
Impact
Mtce Cost
($mm)
Alberni
Other
– 0.7 – – – 0.1 – 0.7 – 1.5
Boilers – – – – – 0.3 – 1.8 – 2.1
Crofton
TMO – – 7,200 3.0 – – – – 7,200 3.0
Capital – – 7,900 – – – – – 7,900 –
Pulp – – 12,200 4.6 – – – – 12,200 4.6
Boilers – 3.8 – – – – – – – 3.8
Powell
Boilers – 0.2 – 2.8 – – – – – 3.0
Biron
Boilers – – – – – – – – – –
Rumford
Capital – – – – – – 1,500 – 1,500 –
Pulp – – – – – – 4,800 9.6 4,800 9.6
Boilers – – – – – 4.2 – 2.9 – 7.1
Other – – – – – – – 1.0 – 1.0
Total – 4.7 27,300 10.4 – 4.6 6,300 16.0 33,600 35.7
Q3 2016 OVERVIEW:
Outlook
14
Markets:
• Continued pressure on North American paper markets
• Price increases announced Nov. 1 for supercalendered paper
(US $50 per short ton) and coated groundwood paper (US $40
per short ton)
• Stable pricing for newsprint
• Pulp pricing declines
Operations:
• Seasonally stronger sales demand
• Continued OFI savings
• Major maintenance spending
Q&A
Appendix
15
ADJUSTED EBITDA SENSITIVITIES
($millions) Adjusted EBITDA
Product prices (1), (2)
Impact of US$10/t change in price of:
Uncoated Paper $ 6
Coated Paper 13 Newsprint 4 Pulp 5
$ 28
Foreign exchange (3)
Impact of $0.01 change in US dollar relative to the Canadian dollar 10
Energy cost sensitivity (1), (4)
Impact of 5% change in price of:
Natural gas and oil – direct purchases 1 Electricity – direct purchases 9 Coal – direct purchases 1
Freight cost sensitivity Impact of US$5/bbl change in price of West Texas Int. (WTI) Oil 1
Fibre sensitivity (1), (4)
Impact of US$5/unit change in the price of wood chips (Bdt) 17
(1) Based on a foreign exchange rate of US$0.77. (2) Based on annualized sales of Q3 2016.
(3) Based on Q3 2016 annualized net cash flows and a foreign exchange movement to US$0.78 from US$0.77 and excluding our hedging program and the impact of the translation of US dollar denominated debt.
(4) Based on annualized Q3 2016 consumption levels.
16
SUMMARY OF SEGMENTED
FINANCIAL INFORMATION
Numbers for all periods exclude the results of our Snowflake mill which have been classified as discontinued operations.
17
($millions, except where
otherwise stated)Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY Q1 Q2 Q3
Sales (000 MT)
Coated 225.9 216.9 253.6 240.7 937.1 237.9 241.7 258.4
Uncoated 103.0 108.4 104.9 109.6 425.9 98.9 107.3 106.4
Newsprint 81.6 89.8 92.6 82.0 346.0 80.5 73.3 78.8
Pulp 84.9 86.0 85.1 89.3 345.3 89.8 69.4 94.9
Other 15.1 10.0 34.6 20.3 80.0 35.7 20.7 18.2
510.5 511.1 570.8 541.9 2,134.3 542.8 512.4 556.7
Sales
Coated $ 244.2 $ 228.5 $ 287.9 $ 273.2 $ 1,033.8 $ 269.7 $ 255.0 $ 273.8
Uncoated 94.3 95.5 95.2 97.5 382.5 87.9 90.6 88.9
Newsprint 58.0 58.9 63.0 55.6 235.5 56.3 49.9 55.5
Pulp 70.5 67.7 70.7 69.9 278.8 70.4 51.7 72.1
Other 12.3 7.8 25.8 14.6 60.5 26.1 13.6 12.4
$ 479.3 $ 458.4 $ 542.6 $ 510.8 $ 1,991.1 $ 510.4 $ 460.8 $ 502.7
Adjusted EBITDA
Coated $ (5.2) $ (19.6) $ 15.1 $ 8.6 $ (1.1) $ 11.3 $ 9.9 $ 13.6
Uncoated 10.6 (6.1) 6.3 3.5 14.3 2.2 (3.9) 3.4
Newsprint 2.9 (5.5) (0.4) (0.1) (3.1) (2.3) (5.4) 4.0
Pulp 8.0 11.8 18.6 4.2 42.6 11.4 (4.6) 12.8
Other (2.3) 0.2 (0.8) (1.1) (4.0) (5.5) (1.3) (1.9)
$ 14.0 $ (19.2) $ 38.8 $ 15.1 $ 48.7 $ 17.1 $ (5.3) $ 31.9
Operating earnings (loss)
Coated $ (10.7) $ (25.4) $ 9.1 $ 1.9 $ (25.1) $ 6.1 $ 5.3 $ (46.3)
Uncoated 4.2 (12.2) - (3.2) (11.2) (4.1) (9.6) (83.8)
Newsprint 1.4 (7.4) (2.3) (2.1) (10.4) (4.0) (7.3) (48.0)
Pulp 7.3 11.1 17.9 2.7 39.0 10.8 (5.3) 12.1
Other (2.5) (0.1) (0.9) (1.5) (5.0) (6.1) (1.7) (2.2)
$ (0.3) $ (34.0) $ 23.8 $ (2.2) $ (12.7) $ 2.7 $ (18.6) $ (168.2)
2015 2016
IMPACT OF SPECIFIC ITEMS ON NET EARNINGS (LOSS)
18
($millions, except where otherwise stated) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 LTM
Net earnings (loss) $ 22.2
$ (32.4)
$ (12.9) $ (26.3)
$ 16.9 $ (26.6) $ (185.0) $ (221.0)
Specific items, after taxes: -
Foreign exchange loss (gain) on long-term debt 27.6 (5.5) 24.0 11.6 (22.6) 0.6 2.8 (7.6)
Bargain purchase price (39.3) (2.9) (1.7) - - - - -
Market curtailment - 11.7 - - - - - -
Crofton oxygen plant outage (insurance recovery) - 4.4 - - (2.7) - - (2.7)
Rumford recovery boiler upgrade - 11.0 - - - - - -
Professional fees & duties on countervailing action - 1.1 2.1 4.5 3.3 2.2 3.1 13.1
Crofton waterline breach, net of insurance recovery - - - - - 2.0 0.3 2.3
Net settlement gain - - - - - (5.5) - (5.5)
Reduction of deferred tax asset valuation allowance (25.1) (1.9) (3.4) - - - - -
Acquisition costs related to US paper mills 1.4 - - - - - - -
Restructuring costs 0.6 0.7 0.3 0.2 - - - 0.2
Impairment - - - - - - 186.4 186.4
Net earnings (loss) before specific items $ (12.6)
$ (13.8)
$ 8.4 $ (10.0)
$ (5.1) $ (27.3) $ 7.6 $ (34.8)
Net earnings (loss) per share before specific items $ (0.87)
$ (0.95)
$ 0.58 $ (0.69)
$ (0.35) $ (1.88) $ 0.52 $ (2.40)
Weighted average common shares (millions) 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5 14.5
2015 2016
CAPITALIZATION
December 31,
2015
September 30,
2016
Term loan, due July 31, 2017 $ 16.0 $ 14.8 Senior secured notes, 11.0% due October 30, 2017 (US$260.5
million; December 31, 2015 – US$260.5 million) 355.6
338.6
371.6 353.4 Revolving asset based loan facility of up to $250.0 million
(December 31, 2015 - $225.0 million) due July 31, 2017 115.1
149.1
Capital lease obligations 7.5 6.6
Total debt 494.2 509.1
Less: currenty portion (3.2) (165.1)
Total long-term debt $ 491.0 $ 344.0
19
($millions)
20