q2fy22: steady momentum

Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset Edelweiss Securities Limited

Q2FY22: Steady momentum

We estimate revenue/EBITDA of our coverage universe would grow 19.2%/14.3% on a two-year basis (Q2FY22 versus Q2FY20) compared with 11.2% growth/a 2.9% dip for Q1FY22 (Q1FY22 versus Q1FY20).

In Q2FY22, rural demand remained resilient while urban demand, including modern trade, is starting to recover. Discretionary and out-

of-home segments are showing a good pickup, but it is not yet back to 2019 levels, while the health & hygiene segment is likely to slow down. We expect margin pressure for most companies, and expect demand sentiment to improve in Q3FY22 on the back of festive demand.

Bizom data suggests strong growth but we disagree

According to Bizom, FMCG industry sales grew ~30%/44%/60% YoY in Sep/Aug/Jul-

21. However, we expect our coverage universe to see relatively modest growth, and

estimate average volume growth at 8.5% YoY for Q2FY22 (base 1.8%). September

salaried jobs data is the best since Feb-20, which ties up with recovery in urban

consumption. Rural consumption remains strong as rural job markets continue to

show uptick, not to mention the third year in a row of normal rainfall.

Rising mobility helps but In-home consumption suffering

With rising mobility, discretionary categories such skin care, cosmetics, hair colour,

and juices are seeing an uptick. Liquor and cigarettes are likely to show good YoY

growth on a soft base. Health supplements (honey and chyawanprash), hygiene

products and products like Saffola edible oil would see a slowdown.

Price hikes not enough to negate raw material inflation

All companies have taken price hikes, but we still we expect gross margins of most

companies to dip YoY. Most companies are likely to increase ad spends YoY

(especially Tata Consumer); thus, YoY EBITDA margin compression is likely as many

costs are coming back.

Model Consumer Portfolio and outlook

Companies in top-tier in terms of YoY volume growth in Q2FY22 would be paint companies, Pidilite while companies in the bottom tier will be Bajaj Consumer and Emami. We have analysed in this report based both on two year basis and one year basis given covid impact in base quarter. We expect rural growth to accelerate riding a good monsoon overall and government sops. With offices re-starting, we expect urban growth to start picking up as well. In-home food consumption, will ease off impacting Marico’s Saffola edible oil portfolio. We expect festive demand to give a boost to the sector, which should help it end FY22 on a strong note.

We assign the following weightings in our Model Consumer Portfolio—30% to HUL,

20% each to Nestle, Dabur and Asian Paints and 10% to Pidilite.

India Equity Research Consumer Staples October 6, 2021

Consumer Goods Preview SECTOR UPDATE

Abneesh Roy Tushar Sundrani Amritasai Sista +91 (22) 6620 3141 +91 (22) 6620 3004 [email protected] [email protected] [email protected]

Consumer Goods Preview

Edelweiss Securities Limited

2 Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset

Leaders and Laggards in Q2FY22

We have analysed below based both on two year basis and one year basis given

covid impact in base quarter.

On two-year basis for consumer goods space (including staples and discretionary)

In terms of sales growth, Tata Consumer, Marico and Dabur are leading revenue

growth while United Spirits and Bajaj consumer are the laggards from a two year

perspective.

In terms of EBITDA growth, Emami, Colgate and Tata Consumer are leading EBITDA

growth while United Spirits, Bajaj consumer and ITC are the laggards from a two

year perspective.

On one-year basis: Relevant for only consumer staples (as discretionary was

impacted severely in the base due to a hard lockdown)

Marico, ITC and HUL are leading revenue growth while Bajaj Consumer and

Britannia are the laggards, from one year perspective.

ITC, HUL and Marico are leading EBITDA growth while Britannia, Tata consumer

and Bajaj consumer are the laggards, from one-year perspective.

Two-year revenue growth (INR mn)

Q2FY22E Q2FY20 Growth (%)

Tata consumer 30,642 23,471 30.6

Hindustan Unilever 1,28,191 98,520 30.1

Marico 23,512 18,290 28.6

Dabur 27,536 22,120 24.5

Asian Paints 61,528 50,507 21.8

GCPL 31,830 26,302 21.0

Berger Paints 19,342 15,986 21.0

Nestle 38,799 32,158 20.7

Pidilite 21,530 18,066 19.2

Britannia 35,821 30,488 17.5

Emami 7,733 6,601 17.1

Colgate 13,899 12,218 13.8

ITC 1,25,815 1,16,593 7.9

Bajaj Consumer Care 2,316 2,171 6.7

United Spirits 23,485 22,962 2.3

Source: Company, Edelweiss Research

HUL’s Q2FY20’s revenue doesn’t include GSK



Edelweiss Research is also available on www.edelweissresearch.com, Bloomberg - EDEL, Thomson Reuters, and Factset 3

Two-year EBITDA growth (INR mn)

Q2FY22E Q2FY20 Growth (%)

Emami 2,629 1,930 36.2

Colgate 4,364 3,230 35.1

Hindustan Unilever 31,663 24,430 29.6

Tata consumer 3,983 3,148 26.5

Nestle 9,506 7,645 24.3

Pidilite 4,521 3,682 22.8

Asian Paints 11,690 9,548 22.4

Marico 4,303 3,530 21.9

Britannia 5,954 4,922 21.0

Dabur 5,920 4,895 20.9

GCPL 6,907 5,719 20.8

Berger Paints 2,979 2,511 18.6

ITC 45,167 45,624 -1.0

Bajaj Consumer Care 556 622 -10.6

United Spirits 3,405 4,156 -18.1

Source: Company, Edelweiss Research

HUL’s Q2FY20’s EBITDA doesn’t include GSK

Q2FY22 analysis on one-year basis

% YoY growth

Revenue EBITDA Volume

Asian Paints 15.0 (7.6) 16.0

Bajaj Consumer Care 2.8 (11.3) (1.0)

Berger Paints 11.0 (11.1) 11.0

Britannia 4.8 (11.9) 4.0

Colgate 8.1 6.6 3.0

Dabur 9.4 4.0 7.0

Emami 5.2 2.3 2.0

Godrej Consumer 9.2 0.9 5.0

Hindustan Unilever 12.0 10.4 7.0

Indigo Paints* 36.4 16.2 50.0

ITC 12.5 11.2 9.0

Marico 18.2 10.6 8.0

Nestle India 9.5 5.7 NA

Pidilite 14.5 (11.8) 11.0

Tata consumer 10.2 (0.3) NA

United Spirits - P&A 9.4 26.3 6.0

Source: Edelweiss Research

*For Indigo paints volume growth only for Emulsions

**For ITC volume growth is only cigarettes




Bizom data suggests strong recovery but we disagree

As per Bizom, FMCG industry sales grew ~30% YoY in Sept, 44% in Aug and 60% in

July. We expect our Coverage Universe to see calibrated growth vs Bizom numbers.

September salaried jobs number is the best since February 2020, at 84 mn salaried

jobs in September which ties up with recovery in Urban consumption. Rural

consumption remains strong as rural job markets continue to show uptick apart from

a 3rd consecutive normal rainfall year.

Many segments gain as lockdown eases

We estimate average volume growth at 9.1% YoY in Q2FY22 (base 1.6%) versus a

growth of 35.7% in Q1FY21 (base -20.7%). With rising mobility, discretionary

categories such skin care, cosmetics, hair colour, and juices are seeing an uptick.

Liquor and cigarettes categories are likely to show a good YoY growth on a soft base.

Health supplements (Honey and chyawanprash) will see a slowdown impacting

Dabur, Emami and Marico.

Price hikes partially negate raw material inflation but not enough

Most companies have taken pricing actions to pass on part of the inflation, hence

we still expect a YoY dip in gross margins for most companies. HUL has taken one

more calibrated hike in Q2FY22 in the skin care and laundry segment. Most other

staples companies have also taken calibrated price hikes. Paint companies have

taken an additional 2% price hike taking their total annual price hike to 6%.

From a raw material standpoint, Palm oil remains inflationary, which will impact HUL

and GCPL. However these companies have taken pricing action to large portion of

this inflation. Crude being up YoY will lead to margin pressure on companies with

higher exposure to crude derivatives—such as Asian Paints, Berger Paints and

Pidilite. For Pidilite, VAM prices are up 133% YoY and after relatively cooling off in

Q2FY22 they have shot back up. Rise in crude prices has also impacted freight and

packaging cost of most companies. Mentha prices are soft YoY which will benefit

Emami. Although glass prices are inflationary for United Spirits, ENA prices are

flattish QoQ and YoY.

Raw material tracker

Name of the Commodity YoY (%) QoQ (%)

Palm Oil 60.5 5.5

PFAD 67.7 5.1

Wheat 4.0 -

Brent 69.3 6.3

Mentha (2.2) (1.0)

Soda Ash 19.7 20.6

Gold (9.2) (1.4)

India WPI rectified spirit (0.3) 0.5

Source: Bloomberg

Modern trade likely to recover, benefiting discretionary segments

We expect modern trade to show a strong YoY recovery led by rising mobility and

addition of new stores. Avenue Supermarts (DMart) Q2FY22 sales update points

towards this. Standalone Revenue from operations for Q2FY22 stood at INR 76.5bn

(up 47% YoY, 52% QoQ). The total number of stores as of September 30, 2021 stood

at 246 (Q1FY22: 238)




Edelweiss Consumer Goods sector - Q2FY22 estimates snapshot


Company Name Q2FY22E Q2FY21 YoY growth (%) Q1FY22 QoQ growth (%)

Asian Paints Revenues 61,528 53,502 15.0 55,854 10.2

EBITDA 11,690 12,652 (7.6) 9,136 28.0

PAT 7,885 8,519 (7.4) 5,743 37.3

Other income 800 826 896

Tax 2,606 2,936 2,043

EBITDA margin 19.0 23.6 16.4

Bajaj Consumer Care Revenues 2,316 2,253 2.8 2,153 7.6

EBITDA 556 627 (11.3) 523 6.2

PAT 514 573 (10.2) 489 5.2

Other income 90 - 83

Tax 113 121 103


Berger Paints Revenues 19,342 17,426 11.0 17,985 7.5

EBITDA 2,979 3,352 (11.1) 2,385 24.9

PAT 1,869 2,221 (15.9) 1,413 32.3


Tax 630 716 498


Britannia Revenues 35,821 34,191 4.8 34,035 5.2

EBITDA 5,954 6,754 (11.9) 5,538 7.5

PAT 4,435 4,951 (10.4) 3,868 14.6


Tax 1,494 1,750 1,442


Colgate Revenues 13,899 12,855 8.1 11,660 19.2

EBITDA 4,364 4,093 6.6 3,552 22.9

PAT 2,973 2,742 8.4 2,332 27.5


Tax 1,001 947 810


Dabur Revenues 27,536 25,160 9.4 23,368 17.8

EBITDA 5,920 5,694 4.0 4,425 33.8

PAT 4,754 4,829 (1.5) 3,773 26.0


Tax 1,341 1,067 744


Emami Revenues 7,733 7,348 5.2 7,733 -

EBITDA 2,629 2,571 2.3 1,628 61.5

PAT 1,487 1,185 25.6 891 67.0


Tax 372 284 326


Godrej Consumer Revenues 31,830 29,151 9.2 28,945 10.0

EBITDA 6,907 6,844 0.9 6,111 13.0

PAT 4,794 4,584 4.6 4,152 15.5


Tax 1,514 1,463 1,272





Edelweiss Consumer Goods sector - Q2FY22 estimates snapshot


Note: * For Nestle India, corresponding periods are: Q3CY21E, Q3CY20 and Q2CY21 respectively

Company Name Q2FY22E Q2FY21 YoY growth (%) Q1FY22 QoQ growth (%)

Hindustan Unilever Revenues 1,28,191 1,14,420 12.0 1,19,150 7.6

EBITDA 31,663 28,690 10.4 28,470 11.2

PAT 22,495 20,090 12.0 20,610 9.1

Other income 1,200 1,510 670

Tax 7,578 6,520 5,720


Indigo Paints Revenues 2,112 1,548 36.4 1,560 35.4

EBITDA 338 291 16.2 202 67.6

PAT 216 188 14.9 116 86.1


Tax 74 42 40


ITC Revenues 1,25,815 1,11,831 12.5 1,22,171 3.0

EBITDA 45,167 40,606 11.2 39,922 13.1

PAT 35,700 32,324 10.4 30,135 18.5

Other income 6,500 6,100 4,290

Tax 12,027 10,419 10,019


Marico Revenues 23,512 19,890 18.2 25,250 (6.9)

EBITDA 4,303 3,890 10.6 4,810 (10.5)

PAT 3,076 3,060 0.5 3,650 (15.7)


Tax 1,036 690 1,020


Nestle India * Revenues 38,799 35,417 9.5 34,767 11.6

EBITDA 9,506 8,990 5.7 8,339 14.0

PAT 6,250 5,871 6.5 5,386 16.0


Tax 2,106 1,994 1,919


Pidilite Revenues 21,530 18,803 14.5 19,368 11.2

EBITDA 4,521 5,126 (11.8) 3,476 30.1

PAT 3,083 3,558 (13.4) 2,154 43.1


Tax 1,039 1,220 721


Tata consumer Revenues 30,642.0 27,813.4 10.2 30,084.6 1.9

EBITDA 3,983.5 3,995.8 (0.3) 3,994.9 (0.3)

PAT 2,683.2 2,970.8 (9.7) 1,890.7 41.9

Other income 300.0 262.2 280.1

Tax 870.3 871.3 957.1


United Spirits Revenues 23,485 21,459 9.4 16,151 45.4

EBITDA 3,405 2,697 26.3 1,677 103.1

PAT 2,024 1,284 57.6 1,055 91.8


Tax 682 463 (24)





The Story in Charts

Staples companies’ volume trajectory


Food companies’ revenue growth trajectory

Source: Edelweiss Research, Company

Discretionary companies’ volume growth trajectory


Paint and adhesive companies’ volume growth trajectory


(20.0)

(8.0)

4.0

16.0

28.0

40.0

Q2

FY1

9

Q3

FY1

9

Q4

FY1

9

Q1

FY2

0

Q2

FY2

0

Q3

FY2

0

Q4

FY2

0

Q1

FY2

1

Q2

FY2

1

Q3

FY2

1

Q4

FY2

1

Q1

FY2

2

Q2

FY2

2

(%)

Hindustan Unilever GCPL Dabur Marico Colgate - Toothpaste

(10.0)

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

Q2

FY2

0

Q3

FY2

0

Q4

FY2

0

Q1

FY2

1

Q2

FY2

1

Q3

FY2

1

Q4

FY2

1

Q1

FY2

2

Q2

FY2

2

(%)

Britannia Nestle Tata consumer

(70.0)

(40.0)

(10.0)

20.0

50.0

80.0Q

2FY

19

Q3

FY1

9

Q4

FY1

9

Q1

FY2

0

Q2

FY2

0

Q3

FY2

0

Q4

FY2

0

Q1

FY2

1

Q2

FY2

1

Q3

FY2

1

Q4

FY2

1

Q1

FY2

2

Q2

FY2

2

(%)

ITC - Cigarettes United Spirits - P&A

(70.0)

(30.0)

10.0

50.0

90.0

130.0

Q2

FY1

9

Q3

FY1

9

Q4

FY1

9

Q1

FY2

0

Q2

FY2

0

Q3

FY2

0

Q4

FY2

0

Q1

FY2

1

Q2

FY2

1

Q3

FY2

1

Q4

FY2

1

Q1

FY2

2

Q2

FY2

2

(%)

Asian Paints Berger Paints Pidilite - C&B Business




Edelweiss Consumer Goods sector volume growth snapshot (%)

Company Name Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21 Q1FY22 Q2FY22E

Asian Paints 14.0 11.0 1.0 (36.0) 11.0 33.0 48.0 106.0 16.0

Bajaj Consumer Care 0.1 (1.0) (30.0) (25.0) 5.0 18.0 40.0 24.3 (1.0)

Berger Paints 13.0 10.0 (4.0) NA 17.0 32.0 60.0 60.0 11.0

Britannia 3.0 3.0 0.1 21.5 9.0 4.0 8.0 1.0 4.0

Colgate - Toothpaste 2.0 1.0 (8.0) (7.0) 3.0 5.0 NA 5.0 3.0

Dabur - Domestic 4.8 5.6 (14.6) (9.7) 16.8 18.1 25.4 34.4 7.0

Emami - Domestic 1.0 (3.0) (19.0) (28.0) 10.0 13.0 39.0 38.0 2.0

Hindustan Unilever 5.0 5.0 (7.0) (8.0) 1.0 4.0 16.0 9.0 7.0

Indigo Paints 73.1 50.0

ITC - Cigarettes 3.0 2.0 (10.0) (40.0) (12.0) (5.0) 8.0 32.0 9.0

GCPL - domestic vol growth 7.0 7.0 (15.0) 3.0 5.0 7.0 29.0 15.0 5.0

Marico - Domestic 1.0 (1.0) (3.0) (14.0) 11.0 15.0 25.0 21.0 8.0

Pidilite - C&B Business (1.0) 2.0 (3.1) (58.3) 3.6 19.0 42.0 105.0 11.0

United Spirits - volume growth 1.0 (1.8) (13.3) (49.2) (3.9) (0.8) 8.1 61.0 6.9

United Spirits - P&A 3.0 2.7 (20.0) (51.5) (0.6) 0.6 19.4 60.0 6.0

Average volume 5.1 4.2 (7.3) (20.6) 1.8 8.3 21.6 36.1 8.5


Edelweiss Consumer Goods sector EBITDA margin snapshot (%)

Company Name Q1FY20 Q2FY20 Q3FY20 Q4FY20 Q1FY21 Q2FY21 Q3FY21 Q4FY21 Q1FY22 Q2FY22E

Asian Paints 22.7 18.9 21.9 18.5 16.6 23.6 26.3 19.8 16.4 19.0

Bajaj Consumer Care 29.3 28.6 25.7 13.5 29.0 27.8 25.5 24.7 24.3 24.0

Berger Paints 17.8 15.7 17.5 15.4 9.9 19.2 19.6 16.6 13.3 15.4

Britannia 14.6 16.1 16.8 15.8 21.0 19.8 19.3 16.1 16.3 16.6

Colgate 27.6 26.4 27.6 24.5 29.6 31.8 30.1 32.9 30.5 31.4

Dabur 20.1 22.1 20.9 18.9 21.0 22.6 21.0 18.9 21.1 21.5

Emami 20.7 29.2 32.5 18.5 25.5 35.0 36.4 22.3 25.7 34.0

Hindustan Unilever 26.2 24.8 24.9 22.9 25.0 25.1 24.1 24.4 23.9 24.7

GCPL 19.4 21.7 22.7 22.1 20.3 23.5 23.3 21.0 21.1 21.7

Indigo Paints 18.2 18.8 15.0 16.9 12.9 16.0

ITC 39.7 38.4 38.4 38.4 29.7 36.3 36.0 33.6 32.7 35.9

Marico 21.3 19.3 20.4 18.9 24.3 19.6 19.5 15.9 19.0 18.3

Nestle 23.9 23.8 21.8 24.1 24.9 25.4 22.1 24.1 24.0 24.5

Pidilite 22.0 20.4 24.0 19.5 7.6 27.3 27.9 20.6 17.9 21.0

Tata consumer 14.7 13.4 12.8 12.8 17.8 14.4 11.8 9.9 13.3 13.0

United Spirits 17.8 18.1 16.4 13.6 -7.5 12.6 15.4 18.5 10.4 14.5





Asian Paints' EBITDA margin snapshot


Hindustan Unilever's EBITDA margin snapshot


Britannia's EBITDA margin snapshot


United Spirits’ EBITDA margin snapshot


439

128 (21)

(465)

-1,000

-600

-200

200

600

1,000

0.0

6.0

12.0

18.0

24.0

30.0

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

(%)

Last year Current year YoY change (bps)

(87)

146

(114)

(37)

-160

-40

80

200

320

440

0.0

6.0

12.0

18.0

24.0

30.0

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

(%)


249

30

(469)

(313)

-560

-420

-280

-140

0

140

280

420

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

(%)


(100)

490

1,792

193

-700.0

0.0

700.0

1,400.0

2,100.0

-10.0

-4.0

2.0

8.0

14.0

20.0

Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2

(%)





Asian Paints

We anticipate revenue to grow at 15% YoY, while EBITDA and PAT to dip 7.6% and

7.4% YoY respectively. In the base quarter Q2FY21, we saw a sales and EBITDA

growth of 5.9% and 32.5% YoY respectively. We expect 16% YoY volume growth on

a base of 11% YoY (Q1FY22 saw 106% volume growth on base of -38% YoY). On

account of lower realisation, discounts and lower end of portfolio growing faster we

expect price volume gap to remain flattish. There has been revival in discretionary

spending and real estate in Q2FY22 which has benefited the company. The

company has taken some price hike to counter inflation. Overall we expect EBITDA

margins to fall this quarter by 460bps YoY due to inflationary pressure and improve

260bps QoQ due to price hike and inflation coming off relatively.

Edelweiss estimates - Asian Paints (INR mn)

Q2FY22E Q2FY21 YoY growth (%) Q1FY22 QoQ growth (%)

Revenues 61,528 53,502 15.0 55,854 10.2

EBITDA 11,690 12,652 (7.6) 9,136 28.0

PAT 7,885 8,519 (7.4) 5,743 37.3


Tax 2,606 2,936 2,043



Bajaj Consumer

We expect revenue to grow 2.8% YoY while EBITDA and PAT to dip 11.3% and 10.2%

YoY respectively. Q2FY21 revenue and EBITDA grew 3.8% YoY and 0.7% YoY

respectively. We expect 1% YoY volume dip on a 5% base (Q1FY22 saw a volume

growth (excluding sanitiser) of 24.3% YoY on a -25% base). Price hike is about 3%.

This quarter will see no sanitiser sales in the base. Overall, we expect an EBITDA

margin contraction of 430bps YoY due to raw material inflation pressure.

Edelweiss estimates - Bajaj Consumer (INR mn)


Revenues 2,316 2,253 2.8 2,153 7.6

EBITDA 556 627 (11.3) 523 6.2

PAT 514 573 (10.2) 489 5.2

Other income 90 - 83

Tax 113 121 103






Berger Paints

We anticipate revenue to grow 11% YoY, while EBITDA and PAT to dip 11.1% and

15.9% YoY respectively. In the base quarter Q2FY21, we saw sales and EBITDA

growth of 7.4% and 37.2% YoY respectively. We expect a volume growth of 11% YoY

on a base of 17% YoY (Q1FY22 saw 91% YoY volume growth). The company has seen

inflationary pressure YoY but there should be some improvement QoQ.

Discretionary spending has seen some revival in the quarter which should benefit

the company. Overall, we expect EBITDA margins to to fall 380bps YoY due to

inflation but improve 210bps QoQ due to price hike and inflation coming off

relatively.

Edelweiss estimates - Berger Paints (INR mn)


Revenues 19,342 17,426 11.0 17,985 7.5

EBITDA 2,979 3,352 (11.1) 2,385 24.9

PAT 1,869 2,221 (15.9) 1,413 32.3


Tax 630 716 498



Britannia Industries

We expect Britannia’s revenue to grow 4.8% YoY while EBITDA and PAT to fall by

11.9% and 10.4% YoY respectively. Q2FY21 revenue and EBITDA grew 12.1% YoY and

37.2% YoY respectively. We expect Britannia's volume to grow 4% on a base of 9%

YoY (Q1FY22 saw 1% YoY volume growth on a base of 21.5%). Price hikes are about

3% YoY however value-volume differential will be lower on account of adverse mix.

On the margin front, raw material trend is inflationary and will lead to 310bps YoY

gross margin contraction. We expect 300bps YoY contraction in EBITDA margins as

base quarter had operating leverage benefit.

Edelweiss estimates - Britannia Industries (INR mn)


Revenues 35,821 34,191 4.8 34,035 5.2

EBITDA 5,954 6,754 (11.9) 5,538 7.5

PAT 4,435 4,951 (10.4) 3,868 14.6


Tax 1,494 1,750 1,442






Colgate Palmolive

We anticipate revenue, EBITDA and PAT growth of 8.1%, 6.6% and 8.4% YoY

respectively. In the base quarter Q2FY21, we saw revenue and EBITDA growth of

5.2% and 26.7% YoY respectively. We expect volume growth of 3% YoY on a base of

3% (Q1FY22 saw 10% YoY volume growth on -7% base). We expect price hike to be

roughly 5%. There has been some inflation in corrugated boxes which will impact

packaging costs. Overall, we expect EBITDA margins to fall 40bps YoY.

Edelweiss estimates - Colgate Palmolive (INR mn)


Revenues 13,899 12,855 8.1 11,660 19.2

EBITDA 4,364 4,093 6.6 3,552 22.9

PAT 2,973 2,742 8.4 2,332 27.5


Tax 1,001 947 810



Dabur

We expect Dabur’s Revenue and EBITDA to grow 9.4% and 4% respectively while PAT

to dip 1.5% YoY. In Q2FY21, Dabur's revenue and EBITDA grew 13.7% YoY and 16.3%

YoY. We expect domestic volumes to grow 7% YoY on a base of 16.8% (Q1FY21 saw

34.4% YoY volume jump on a base of -9.7% YoY). Growth in the immunity boosting

products will slow down due to a high base while food and HPC will see double digit

growth. Raw material prices firming up with agro- and crude-linked prices trending

up. The company will take calibrated price hikes to combat inflation. We expect

gross margins to contract 260bps due to raw material inflation and adverse base.

We expect 110bps YoY EBITDA margin contraction. On account of higher tax rate,

PAT growth will lag EBITDA growth.

Edelweiss estimates - Dabur (INR mn)


Revenues 27,536 25,160 9.4 23,368 17.8

EBITDA 5,920 5,694 4.0 4,425 33.8

PAT 4,754 4,829 (1.5) 3,773 26.0


Tax 1,341 1,067 744






Emami

We expect revenue, EBITDA and PAT growth of 5.2%, 2.3% and 25.6% YoY,

respectively. In the base quarter Q2FY21 we saw sales and EBITDA growth of 11%

and 33.2% YoY respectively. PAT growth is ahead of EBITDA growth on account of

higher depreciation expense in the base. We expect volume growth of 2% YoY on a

base of 10% (Q1FY22 saw 38% YoY volume growth on -28% base) Immunity

portfolio will see slower growth due to high base. We expect price hike of 2-3% in

the quarter. Summer and international business continue to be laggards. Inputs are

witnessing some inflation. Overall we expect EBITDA margins to dip 100bps YoY and

increase 1290bps QoQ.

Edelweiss estimates – Emami (INR mn)


Revenues 7,733 7,348 5.2 7,733 -

EBITDA 2,629 2,571 2.3 1,628 61.5

PAT 1,487 1,185 25.6 891 67.0


Tax 372 284 326



Godrej Consumer Products

We expect revenue, EBITDA and PAT to grow by 9.2%, 0.9% and 4.6% YoY,

respectively. In the base quarter Q2FY21 we saw revenue and EBITDA growth of

10.8% and 19.7% YoY respectively. We expect a volume growth of 5% YoY on a base

of 5% (Q1FY22 saw 15% YoY on a base of 3%). We expect Home care to grow in low

double digit YoY (Q2FY21 saw 18% YoY growth and 5% dip YoY in Soaps and hair care

respectively) and Personal care to grow by mid-single digit (Q2FY21 saw 4% and

14.6% YoY growth in Household insecticides and others respectively) ( Q1FY22 saw

17% and 21% YoY growth in Personal and Home care respectively). India HI sales in

Q2FY22 were below our expectation. August month saw very little rainfall while

September month saw very high rainfall, both of which is not good for HI due to

lower mosquito breeding.

On international business we expect 8.8% YoY growth overall. In Indonesia, marginal

decline in constant currency sales on a base of 5%. This is impacted by challenging

macroeconomic variables, a gradual recovery in the Air Fresheners category, and

high competitive intensity in the Wet Wipes category. In GAUM, constant currency

sales growth in mid-teens on a base of 5%. 2-year CAGR to be in the double digits.

GCPL’s sales growth in Latin America and SAARC businesses to be soft. Overall, we

expect 180bps compression YoY and 60bps QoQ expansion in EBITDA margin.

Edelweiss estimates – Godrej Consumer Products (INR mn)


Revenues 31,830 29,151 9.2 28,945 10.0

EBITDA 6,907 6,844 0.9 6,111 13.0

PAT 4,794 4,584 4.6 4,152 15.5


Tax 1,514 1,463 1,272






Hindustan Unilever

We anticipate revenue, EBITDA and PAT growth of 12%, 10.4% and 12% YoY,

respectively. In the base quarter Q2FY21, we saw 16.1% and 17.4% YoY growth. We

expect HUL to see a volume growth of 7% YoY on a base of 1% (Q1FY22 saw 9%

volume growth on -8% base).

Rural demand has remained resilient and urban demand saw an uptick due to

recovery in spending. July and August demand were slightly ahead of June. Tailwinds

on Hygiene segment have been coming down. We estimate a price hike of 5%

particularly for the skin care and laundry segment.

Palm and crude oil prices continue to be high while tea price softened YoY. Overall,

we expect margins to dip 40bps YoY and increase 80bps QoQ.

Edelweiss estimates – Hindustan Unilever (INR mn)


Revenues 1,28,191 1,14,420 12.0 1,19,150 7.6

EBITDA 31,663 28,690 10.4 28,470 11.2

PAT 22,495 20,090 12.0 20,610 9.1

Other income 1,200 1,510 670

Tax 7,578 6,520 5,720



ITC

We expect revenue, EBITDA and PAT to grow by 12.5%, 11.2% and 10.4% YoY,

respectively. In the base year Q2FY21 we saw sales and EBITDA dip by 4% and 11%

YoY. We expect cigarette volume to rise 9% YoY on base of negative 12% (Q1FY22

saw 34.2% YoY increase on base of negative 40%).

We expect FMCG business to report 8% YoY on base of 15% (Q1FY22 saw 10.4% YoY

growth on base of 10.3%) We expect Hotels business to grow 150% YoY on base of

negative 80.8% (Q1FY22 saw 460% YoY growth on base of negative 94%) Agri

business should grow 7% YoY on base of 12.8% (Q1FY22 saw 9.2% on base of

negative 94%) Paperboard business should see 22% YoY growth on negative 6.8%

base (Q1FY22 saw 140% YoY growth on negative 50% base).

Overall we expect EBITDA margins to dip 40bps YoY and increase 320bps QoQ

Edelweiss estimates – ITC (INR mn)


Revenues 1,25,815 1,11,831 12.5 1,22,171 3.0

EBITDA 45,167 40,606 11.2 39,922 13.1

PAT 35,700 32,324 10.4 30,135 18.5

Other income 6,500 6,100 4,290

Tax 12,027 10,419 10,019






Indigo Paints

We expect revenue EBITDA and PAT to grow 36.4%, 16.2% and 14.9% YoY,

respectively. We expect Emulsions and Primers segments volume to grow by 50%

and 10% YoY. There has been some recovery in the discretionary spending and we

expect the company to benefit from it. Kerala saw severe impact due to the second

covid wave. The company has taken a roughly 6% price hike so far. We expect a

280bps compression YoY in EBITDA margin.

Edelweiss estimates – Indigo Paints (INR mn)


Revenues 2,112 1,548 36.4 1,560 35.4

EBITDA 338 291 16.2 202 67.6

PAT 216 188 14.9 116 86.1


Tax 74 42 40



Marico

We expect revenue, EBITDA and PAT to grow 18.2%, 10.6% and 0.5% YoY,

respectively. In base quarter Q2FY21 we saw sales and EBITDA growth of 8.7% and

10.2% YoY, respectively. We expect domestic volumes to grow 8% YoY on a base of

11% (Q1FY22 saw 21% YoY growth on base of negative 14%) We expect parachute

to clock volume of 7% on 10% base (Q1FY22 saw 12% YoY volume growth on base

of negative 11%) we expect VAHO volumes to grow 11% YoY on base of 4% (Q1FY22

saw 34% YoY volume growth on 30% base).

Saffola Edible Oils had a muted quarter, largely due to volatility in edible oil prices

leading to trade destocking and partly owing to lower in-home consumption. Saffola

volumes to grow 3% YoY on 20% base. (Q1FY22 saw 24% YoY on 16% base).

International business delivered double digit constant currency growth on a base of

12%, due to positive trends in all markets, except Vietnam. Vietnam has a big

discretionary portfolio which got impacted due to severe covid restrictions.

Consolidated gross margin is expected to improve marginally QoQ, but will be under

pressure on YoY basis. Copra prices corrected, crude remained firm, while edible oil

prices was higher. Overall we expect 130bps YoY dip and 70bps dip QoQ on EBITDA

margins.

Edelweiss estimates – Marico (INR mn)


Revenues 23,512 19,890 18.2 25,250 (6.9)

EBITDA 4,303 3,890 10.6 4,810 (10.5)

PAT 3,076 3,060 0.5 3,650 (15.7)


Tax 1,036 690 1,020






Nestle

We expect revenue, EBITDA and PAT to grow 9.5%, 5.7% and 6.5% YoY, respectively.

In the base quarter Q3CY20, we saw sales growth of 10% and 17.6% YoY,

respectively. Nestle is likely to see ~10.5% YoY growth in domestic revenues on a

base of 10.2% (Q2CY21 saw 13.7% YoY domestic sales growth on a base of 2.6%).

Export revenue is likely to dip 7% YoY (Q2CY21 saw 17.7% YoY growth on a base of -

9.3%). Raw material pressure is high and we expect EBITDA margins to fall 90bps

YoY.

Edelweiss estimates – Nestle (INR mn)

Q3CY21E Q3CY20 YoY growth (%) Q2CY21 QoQ growth (%)

Revenues 38,799 35,417 9.5 34,767 11.6

EBITDA 9,506 8,990 5.7 8,339 14.0

PAT 6,250 5,871 6.5 5,386 16.0


Tax 2,106 1,994 1,919



Pidilite

We estimate revenue to grow 14.5% YoY while EBITDA and PAT to dip 11.8% YoY

and 13.4% YoY respectively. Q2FY21 saw revenue and EBITDA growth of 4.1% YoY

and 39.2% YoY respectively. We expect volumes to improve sequentially on a two

year basis driven by the rural and smaller towns, overall we expect the company

reporting ~11% YoY volume growth on a base of 3.6% (Q1FY22 saw 105% volume

growth on a base of -58.3%). Overall pricing growth will be 4%. We expect gross

margin compression of 490bps YoY due to low VAM prices in the base. VAM prices

which had cooled off have once again risen sharply by the end of the quarter. We

expect EBITDA margin compression of 630bps YoY and expansion of 310bps QoQ.

Edelweiss estimates – Pidilite (INR mn)


Revenues 21,530 18,803 14.5 19,368 11.2

EBITDA 4,521 5,126 (11.8) 3,476 30.1

PAT 3,083 3,558 (13.4) 2,154 43.1


Tax 1,039 1,220 721






Tata Consumer Products

We expect revenue to grow 10.2% YoY while EBITDA and PAT to dip 0.3% and 9.7%

YoY respectively. The strong fall in PAT is due to spike in JV profit share due to high

seasonal gains in plantation. We expect packages beverages to grow 15% YoY on a

base of 32% (Q1FY22 saw 27% YoY growth on base of 11%). we expect India foods

business to grow 25% YoY on a base of 13% (Q1FY22 saw growth of 20% YoY on base

of 18.9%) we expect international revenue to dip 2% YoY on base of 7.3% (Q1FY22

saw dip of 8%YoY on base of 15%. Overall, we expect EBITDA margins to fall 130bps

YoY and increase 460bps QoQ.

Edelweiss estimates – Tata Consumer Products (INR mn)


Revenues 30,642 27,813 10.2 30,085 1.9

EBITDA 3,983 3,996 (0.3) 3,995 (0.3)

PAT 2,683 2,971 (9.7) 1,891 41.9


Tax 870 871 957



United Spirits

We expect Revenue, EBITDA and PAT growth of 9.4%, 26.3% and 57.6% YoY

respectively. In the base quarter Q2FY21, we saw sales and EBITDA fall of 6.5% and

35.1% YoY. We expect volume growth of 6% YoY on base of -0.6% for Prestige and

above segment (Q1FY22 saw 60% YoY growth on -51.5% base) and 8% YoY volume

growth on -7.5% base for Popular segment (Q1FY22 saw 62% YoY growth on -46.7%

base). Glass inflation of ~8% will impact gross margins. Corrugated box, freight and

fuel also saw some inflation. Popular segment review will conclude mid Q3FY22.

Overall we expect EBITDA margins to fall 190bps YoY due to inflation pressure but

improve sequentially 410bps QoQ.

Edelweiss estimates – United Spirits (INR mn)


Revenues 23,485 21,459 9.4 16,151 45.4

EBITDA 3,405 2,697 26.3 1,677 103.1

PAT 2,024 1,284 57.6 1,055 91.8


Tax 682 463 (24)






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q2fy22: steady momentum

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