q2 2015 results€¦ · q2 2015 results analyst and investor call presentation investor relations...
TRANSCRIPT
Q2 2015 results analyst and investor call presentation
Investor Relations
21 August 2015
Slide #1 A.P.
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Body text: 10/12pt - 84/100/108
-0.2%
-0.9%
0.3%
-0.4%
0.5%
-0.4%
0.6% 0.9%
0.6%
0.1%
2012 2013 2014 2015
Eurozone NL
Dutch economic indicators (1/2)
2
Slide #2 A.P.
Q-o-Q, source Thomson Reuters Datastream, CBS PMI indices (end of period), source: Markit
GDP growth remained on growth path in Q2 2015
2.0% growth vs. Q2 2014
0.1% growth vs. Q1 2015
Q2 was impacted by lower natural gas revenues
Consumer spending clearly picked up
June was 2.2% higher compared with same month last year
PMI shows expansion since mid 2013 (>50)
Firm rise in Q2
Dutch PMI improved more than the Eurozone PMI
GDP Consumer spending PMI
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
3%
2012 2013 2014
% change compared with same month year ago, CBS
2015
53
50
48
57 56
2012 2013 2014 2015
EU NL
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Medium Grey
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Dark Grey
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Current Period
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Yellow
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Dark Green
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(after usage basic colours):
0/171/233
Blue
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Fresh Green
108/90/0
Brown
0/146/134
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Body text: 10/12pt - 84/100/108 Dutch economic indicators (2/2)
3
Housing market recovered
Number of houses sold +19.5% vs. Q2 2014
Prices up by 2.5% vs. Q2 2014
Dutch consumer confidence
Improved significantly and is well above the 25 year average of -8.5
Due to a substantially more positive assessment of the economic climate
Unemployment further improved due to an increase in number of jobs
The number of people (re-)entering the labour market rose
The Netherlands, seasonally adjusted confidence (end of period) (average over last 25 years was -8.5), source CBS
The Netherlands (end of period), source: Statistics Netherlands yoy change in avg. price houses sold and no. houses sold, CBS
House prices & houses sold Consumer confidence Unemployment
Slide #3 A.P.
19.5%
2%
-40%
0%
40%
80%
2012 2013 2014 2015
Number of houses sold
Indexed price change yoy
-39
-40
-30
-41
-17
-7 -2
-7
2
6
-45
-30
-15
0
15
2012 2013 2014 2015
6.9
%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2012 2013 2014 2015
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Slide ttl: 16pt - 84/100/108
Body text: 10/12pt - 84/100/108 Q2 2015 highlights
4
Another good quarter
Slide #4 A.P.
Underlying net profit at EUR 600m, up 86%
vs. Q2 2014
Operating income up 11%, driven by all line
items, expenses up 7%
Improvement in economy and Dutch
housing market reflected in very low
impairments
Realisation of 2017 targets on track
Cost/income at 59%
ROE at 15.3%
Fully-loaded CET1 at 14.0%
Including expected levies* (approx. EUR
250m (pre-tax) to be recorded in Q4) on a
annual basis:
Cost/income 62%
ROE 14%
Interim dividend of EUR 350m
* Banking tax, contribution European resolution fund, (European) deposit guarantee scheme
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Fresh Green
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12.9
%
12.7
%
12.9
%
14.1
%
14.2
%
14.0
%
7%
9%
11%
13%
15%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2012 2013 2014 2015
CET1 fully loaded capital target
5
Strong capital accretion, fully loaded capital position above 2017 target range
Fully-loaded CET1 above 2017 target range of 11.5-12.5% provides a cushion for regulatory changes
Consistent capital accretion, while dividends paid
Q2 fully-loaded CET1 was 14.0%
CET1 (fully loaded)
Slide #5 A.P.
11.5-12.5% CET1 target range 2017
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Body text: 10/12pt - 84/100/108 Return on Equity target
6
ROE above target range 2017
Clear improvement in ROE both for Q2 as well as 4Q rolling average
Adjusted for expected regulatory levies ROE was 14% for Q2 2015 (13% 1H2015)
All business segments contributed to the improvement in ROE
Slide #6 A.P.
CHARTS
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10.9
%
9.2
%
12.7
%
10.9
%
14.1
%
15.3
%
10.9
%
14.7
%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2012 2013 2014 1H2015
2012 2013 2014 2015
Series2 Series5 4Q rolling average9-12% target range 2017
Quarterly ROE Annual ROE
2015
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(after usage basic colours):
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Blue
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Fresh Green
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58%
61%
57%
61%
56%
59%
59%
57%
4%
1%
50%
57%
64%
71%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 2012 2013 2014 1H2015
2012 2013 2014 2015
C/I ex bank tax Bank tax 4Q rolling average
Cost/income target
7
Cost/income ratio within the 2017 target range
Slide #7 A.P.
Q2 2015 C/I improved to 59% compared to 61% Q2 2014
Adjusted for expected regulatory levies C/I was 62% (60% 1H 2015)
56-60%
target
range 2017
C/I ex bank tax
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2015
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Dark Grey
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Light Grey
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Historic Period
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Current Period
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(after usage basic colours):
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Blue
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Fresh Green
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Brown
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Chapter ttl: 16pt: - 191/191/191
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Body text: 10/12pt - 84/100/108 Results
8
Good Q2 2015 result driven by higher income and lower impairments
Slide #8 A.P.
EUR m Q2 2015 Q2 2014 Delta 1H 2015 1H 2014 Delta
Net interest income 1,511 1,441 5% 3,056 2,873 6%
Net fee and commission income 456 420 8% 926 842 10%
Other operating income 159 56 312 185 68%
Operating income 2,126 1,917 11% 4,294 3,900 10%
Operating expenses 1,247 1,162 7% 2,465 2,305 7%
Operating result 879 755 16% 1,828 1,595 15%
Impairment charges 34 342 -90% 287 703 -59%
Income tax expenses 244 91 398 192 107%
Underlying profit for the period 600 322 86% 1,144 700 63%
Special items and divestments - -283 - -350
Reported profit for the period 600 39 1,144 351
Underlying cost/income ratio (%) 59% 61% 57% 59%
Underlying return on avg. IFRS equity (%) 15.3% 9.2% 14.7% 10.1%
Net interest margin (bps) 142 146 145 147
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(after usage basic colours):
0/171/233
Blue
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Fresh Green
108/90/0
Brown
0/146/134
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Body text: 10/12pt - 84/100/108 Interest income
9
Interest income levels remained strong
NII increased by 5% vs. Q2 2014, driven by higher margins on loans and to a lesser extent growth in corporate loans
NII decreased by 2% vs. Q1 2015 because of non-recurring interest provisions
Slide #9 A.P.
CHARTS
NOT IN
THINKCELL -100
400
900
1,400
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2012 2013 2014 2015
Retail Banking Private Banking
Corporate Banking Group Functions
146
142
100
125
150
175
1,000
1,300
1,600
1,900
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2012 2013 2014 2015
NIM, in bps NII, EUR m
Net Interest Income (lhs)
Net Interest Margin (rhs)CAGR 5%
CAGR 10%
CAGR 2%
NII, EUR m
1,5
11
100
125
150
175
1,000
1,300
1,600
1,900
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2012 2013 2014 2015
Net Interest Income (lhs)
4Q rolling average NIM (rhs)
NII, EUR m NIM, in bps
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Fresh Green
108/90/0
Brown
0/146/134
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Body text: 10/12pt - 84/100/108 Net Fee and Other operating income
10
Fee income up 8% vs. Q2 2014, primarily driven by Private Banking
Other income increased vs. Q2 2014, primarily due to positive CVA, DVA and FVA effects
Slide #10 A.P.
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200
400
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Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2012 2013 2014 2015
EUR m
Net fee income Other income
EUR m
-70
-35
0
35
70
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
2012 2013 2014
FVA
CVA/DVA
2015
Q1 Q2
Fee income increases over time Volatile CVA, DVA and FVA effects
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Blue
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Fresh Green
108/90/0
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0/146/134
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Body text: 10/12pt - 84/100/108 Expenses
11
Expenses increased for several reasons
Expenses up 7% vs. Q2 2014 due to
higher project expenses (IT and client-related)
pension costs driven by a low discount rate (EUR 18m higher yoy)
Other expenses typically peak in Q4 partly due to the annual charge of Dutch bank tax
Slide #11 A.P.
CHARTS
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400
600
800
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2012 2013 2014 2015
Other expenses
Other excl. bank tax
EUR m
200
400
600
800
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2012 2013 2014 2015
Personnel expenses
ex pension costs & reorg. provision
FTE EUR m
147/209/204
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Light Grey
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Historic Period
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84/100/108
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Line colours
218/0/0
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0/100/128
Petrol
243/192/0
Yellow
0/76/76
Dark Green
Additional – highlight - colours
(after usage basic colours):
0/171/233
Blue
243/192/0
Fresh Green
108/90/0
Brown
0/146/134
Chapter ttl: 16pt: - 191/191/191
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Body text: 10/12pt - 84/100/108 Loan impairments
12
Loan impairments continue to trend downwards
Downward trend of 4Q rolling underlying impairments started in 2014 and continued
Impairments down significantly in mortgages as well as corporate loans
Cost of Risk declined to 5bps in Q2 2015, from 52bps Q2 2014
Q2 is exceptionally low due to releases and not representative for remainder of 2015
Slide #12 A.P.
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43
5bps
-45
0
45
90
-50
200
450
700
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2013 2014 2015
bps EUR m
Corporate loans
Consumer loans
Mortgages
Cost of risk (bps, rhs)
400
900
1,400
1,900
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
EUR m
4Q rolling underlyingimpairments
147/209/204
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Green
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Medium Grey
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Dark Grey
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Light Grey
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Historic Period
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218/0/0
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Petrol
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Yellow
0/76/76
Dark Green
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(after usage basic colours):
0/171/233
Blue
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Fresh Green
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Brown
0/146/134
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Body text: 10/12pt - 84/100/108 Segment results
13
Results improved in all businesses
Slide #13 A.P.
Lower impairments contributed to improvement of net result in all segments:
Retail Banking up 23% yoy
Private Banking improved by 64% in combination with higher operating result
Corporate Banking improved to EUR 249m also because of improved operating result
CHARTS
NOT IN
THINKCELL
342
72
249
-63
-250
100
450
800
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2013 2014 2015
EUR m Net result
Group Functions Corporate Banking
Private Banking Retail Banking
-100
400
900
1,400
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2013 2014 2015
EUR m 4Q rolling average impairments
Corporate Banking Retail Banking Private Banking
278
44 32 -32
342
72
249
-63
-150
0
150
300
RetailBanking
PrivateBanking
CorporateBanking
GroupFunctions
EUR m
2014 Q2
2015 Q2
Net result
147/209/204
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Medium Grey
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Dark Grey
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Light Grey
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Grey
Historic Period
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Current Period
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Line colours
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0/100/128
Petrol
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Yellow
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Dark Green
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(after usage basic colours):
0/171/233
Blue
243/192/0
Fresh Green
108/90/0
Brown
0/146/134
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Body text: 10/12pt - 84/100/108
3.1%
Q2 2015 ≥4%
Leverage Ratio Fully-Loaded
Capital ambitions
14
Pending regulations require close monitoring and capital planning
Based on current understanding of applicable and/or pending regulations and respective implementation dates, the following ambitions apply:
We aim for a Leverage Ratio ≥4% by 2018
Retained earnings
Manage the Exposure Measure
AT1 issuance up to ~1.5% of RWA
We aim for MREL ≥8% by 2018 and pre-position for TLAC
MREL ≥8% through subordinated debt and capital retention
Finalisation of regulation (including TLAC) will determine exact route to meet target
For now, continue to further build out the buffer of loss absorbing instruments
Notwithstanding changes in rules and regulations, additional issuance of AT1 and T2 are a no-regret option, while keeping an eye on regulatory developments
Slide #14 A.P.
* Solely based on equity and loss absorbing instruments
6.2%
MREL
Q2 2015 ≥8%
*
147/209/204
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Medium Grey
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Dark Grey
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Historic Period
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Petrol
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Yellow
0/76/76
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(after usage basic colours):
0/171/233
Blue
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Fresh Green
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Brown
0/146/134
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Body text: 10/12pt - 84/100/108 Risk ratios
15
In Q2 2015 the impaired ratios improved further for total client loan book to 2.6% (2.8% Q1, 2.9% YE2014), due to improved economic conditions and active management of portfolio
Impaired ratios for both mortgages and corporate loans improved while consumer loans remained stable vs. Q1 2015
The coverage ratio increased to 57.4% by 30 June 2015 (53.6% YE2014)
Slide #15 A.P.
Improving impaired ratio total book Coverage ratios more or less stable
CHARTS
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3%
6%
9%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2012 2013 2014 2015
Impaired ratio
0%
30%
60%
90%
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2012 2013 2014 2015
Coverage ratio
Mortgages Consumer loans Corporate loans
147/209/204
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Green
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Medium Green
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Medium Grey
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Dark Grey
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Light Grey
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Historic Period
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Line colours
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0/100/128
Petrol
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Yellow
0/76/76
Dark Green
Additional – highlight - colours
(after usage basic colours):
0/171/233
Blue
243/192/0
Fresh Green
108/90/0
Brown
0/146/134
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Body text: 10/12pt - 84/100/108 Mortgage loans
16
In bps, impairments over avg. mortgage loans
Metrics continued to improve due to recovery housing market and continued active management of portfolio Past due ratio to 1.9%
Impaired ratio to 0.8%
Q2 cost of risk was a net release of 6bps
LtMV at 82% (78% non-NHG), down from 83% at YE2014 (79% non-NHG)
LtMV class ≥100% declined by EUR 3.4bn since YE2014
Asset quality ratios improved Impairments down Loan to Market Value 82%
Slide #16 A.P.
Unclassified
1.8% >120%
5.9%
110-120%
10.2%
100-110%
14.3%
90-100%
14.9% 80-90%
11.4%
50-80%
25.2%
<50%
16.2%
LtMV
30 Jun 2015 EUR 148.6bn
118
5
24
13
-2
-6
2
-15
0
15
30
HY
’15
FY
’14
FY
’13
Q2
’15
Q1
’15
Q4
’14
Q3
’14
Q2
’14
2%
1%
0%
3%
1.0%
Past Due ratio
Mortgages
1.9% 2.2%
2.4%
Impaired ratio
Mortgages
0.8% 0.9%
30 Jun 2015
31 Mar 2015
YE2014
11 8 5 2
-6
24
13
-2
-15
0
15
30
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 FY FY 1H
2014 2015 2013 2014 2015
147/209/204
Light Green
0/146/134
Green
0/94/93
Medium Green
121/131/140
Medium Grey
84/100/108
Dark Grey
228/230/232
Light Grey
187/190/195
Grey
Historic Period
187/190/195
Current Period
0/146/134
84/100/108
Standard bar chart colours:
Line colours
218/0/0
Basic colours for charts:
0/100/128
Petrol
243/192/0
Yellow
0/76/76
Dark Green
Additional – highlight - colours
(after usage basic colours):
0/171/233
Blue
243/192/0
Fresh Green
108/90/0
Brown
0/146/134
Chapter ttl: 16pt: - 191/191/191
Slide ttl: 16pt - 84/100/108
Body text: 10/12pt - 84/100/108
917
41
54
37
58
29
60
30
0
-15
1H
’15
FY
’14
FY
’13
Q2
’15
Q1
’15
Q4
’14
Q3
’14
Q2
’14
3
Q1
’14
Q4
’13
Q3
’13
-3
Q2
’13
14.7 14.316.2 16.9 17.4
19.022.2
25.4
0
15
30
Q2
’15
Q1
’15
Q4
’14
Q3
’14
Q2
’14
Q1
’14
Q4
’13
Q3
’13
Q2
’13
ECT Clients
17
On-balance sheet exposures increased over the last years through controlled growth as well as currency effects
Portfolio decreased in Q2 by 0.9% primarily due to the USD depreciation
Impairment charges increased, but remain at relatively low levels at EUR 18m in Q2
Slide #17 A.P.
On-balance outstanding Impairment charges EUR bn EUR m
36
18 25.2
25.2
14.7 14.3 16.2 16.9 17.4 19
22.2 25.4 25.2
0
10
20
30
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2
2013 2014 2015
8
29
9 3 5
37
17 18
41
54
36
0
20
40
60
Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 FY FY 1H
2013 2014 2015 2013 2014 2015
147/209/204
Light Green
0/146/134
Green
0/94/93
Medium Green
121/131/140
Medium Grey
84/100/108
Dark Grey
228/230/232
Light Grey
187/190/195
Grey
Historic Period
187/190/195
Current Period
0/146/134
84/100/108
Standard bar chart colours:
Line colours
218/0/0
Basic colours for charts:
0/100/128
Petrol
243/192/0
Yellow
0/76/76
Dark Green
Additional – highlight - colours
(after usage basic colours):
0/171/233
Blue
243/192/0
Fresh Green
108/90/0
Brown
0/146/134
Chapter ttl: 16pt: - 191/191/191
Slide ttl: 16pt - 84/100/108
Body text: 10/12pt - 84/100/108 Important notice
For the purposes of this disclaimer ABN AMRO Group N.V. and its consolidated subsidiaries are referred to as "ABN AMRO“. This document (the “Presentation”) has been
prepared by ABN AMRO. For purposes of this notice, the Presentation shall include any document that follows and relates to any oral briefings by ABN AMRO and any
question-and-answer session that follows such briefings. The Presentation is informative in nature and is solely intended to provide financial and general information about ABN
AMRO following the publication of its most recent financial figures. This Presentation has been prepared with care and must be read in connection with the relevant Financial
Documents (latest Quarterly Report and Annual Financial Statements, "Financial Documents"). In case of any difference between the Financial Documents and this
Presentation the Financial Documents are leading. The Presentation does not constitute an offer of securities or a solicitation to make such an offer, and may not be used for
such purposes, in any jurisdiction (including the member states of the European Union and the United States) nor does it constitute investment advice or an investment
recommendation in respect of any financial instrument. Any securities referred to in the Presentation have not been and will not be registered under the US Securities Act of
1933. The information in the Presentation is, unless expressly stated otherwise, not intended for residents of the United States or any "U.S. person" (as defined in Regulation S
of the US Securities Act 1933). No reliance may be placed on the information contained in the Presentation. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is given by or on
behalf of ABN AMRO, or any of its directors or employees as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in the Presentation. ABN AMRO accepts no liability
for any loss arising, directly or indirectly, from the use of such information. Nothing contained herein shall form the basis of any commitment whatsoever. ABN AMRO has
included in this Presentation, and from time to time may make certain statements in its public statements that may constitute “forward-looking statements”. This includes, without
limitation, such statements that include the words ‘expect’, ‘estimate’, ‘project’, ‘anticipate’, ‘should’, ‘intend’, ‘plan’, ‘probability’, ‘risk’, ‘Value-at-Risk (“VaR”)’, ‘target’, ‘goal’,
‘objective’, ‘will’, ‘endeavour’, ‘outlook’, 'optimistic', 'prospects' and similar expressions or variations on such expressions. In particular, the Presentation may include forward-
looking statements relating but not limited to ABN AMRO’s potential exposures to various types of operational, credit and market risk. Such statements are subject to
uncertainties. Forward-looking statements are not historical facts and represent only ABN AMRO's current views and assumptions on future events, many of which, by their
nature, are inherently uncertain and beyond our control. Factors that could cause actual results to differ materially from those anticipated by forward-looking statements include,
but are not limited to, (macro)-economic, demographic and political conditions and risks, actions taken and policies applied by governments and their agencies, financial
regulators and private organisations (including credit rating agencies), market conditions and turbulence in financial and other markets, and the success of ABN AMRO in
managing the risks involved in the foregoing. Any forward-looking statements made by ABN AMRO are current views as at the date they are made. Subject to statutory
obligations, ABN AMRO does not intend to publicly update or revise forward-looking statements to reflect events or circumstances after the date the statements were made, and
ABN AMRO assumes no obligation to do so.
18
147/209/204
Light Green
0/146/134
Green
0/94/93
Medium Green
121/131/140
Medium Grey
84/100/108
Dark Grey
228/230/232
Light Grey
187/190/195
Grey
Historic Period
187/190/195
Current Period
0/146/134
84/100/108
Standard bar chart colours:
Line colours
218/0/0
Basic colours for charts:
0/100/128
Petrol
243/192/0
Yellow
0/76/76
Dark Green
Additional – highlight - colours
(after usage basic colours):
0/171/233
Blue
243/192/0
Fresh Green
108/90/0
Brown
0/146/134
Chapter ttl: 16pt: - 191/191/191
Slide ttl: 16pt - 84/100/108
Body text: 10/12pt - 84/100/108
Address
Gustav Mahlerlaan 10
1082 PP Amsterdam
The Netherlands
Website
www.abnamro.com/ir
Questions
20150821 Investor Relations - non-US 2Q2015 analyst and investor call presentation
19