q12013, quarterlyreport

www.pacunion.com

Q1 2013

www.pacunion.com

Table of Contents

Sellers, Start Your Engines! 3

The Sellers’ Market Heats Up 4

CONTRA COSTA COUNTY 6

EAST BAY 10

MARIN COUNTY 14

NAPA COUNTY 18

SAN FRANCISCO 22

SONOMA COUNTY 30

SONOMA VALLEY 34

TAHOE/TRUCKEE 38

Sellers, Start Your Engines!

After record-breaking results in 2012 for units and volume of residential real estate, activity in the first quarter suggests 2013 will once again reach new highs. Local trends drive the dynamics of our markets, but overall we expect 15 to 17 percent increases in units sold in the Bay Area and price appreciation of 4 to 9 percent.

The single most important dynamic driving this growth is our healthy regional job market. Economist Stephen Levy noted that the Bay Area led California job growth in January, with San Francisco at the forefront and the Oakland, Napa, Santa Rosa, and Vallejo metro areas all posting gains far above the state and national average.

These are high-quality, high-paying jobs in the technology and professional services sectors. We believe confidence in jobs and business in general is driving consumer confidence and the intense pent-up demand for residential real estate. 2013 may be the last year of this cycle that money (mortgage interest rates) remains on sale as real estate prices lift from the bottom and consistent appreciation returns for a sustainable period of time.

Intense demand is occurring even as the supply of available homes remains constrained, and coupled with modest price appreciation is driving the return of equity into homes. This may allow more sellers to realize gains, sell existing homes, and trade up to new dream homes or neighborhoods.

These dynamics are occurring in nearly every one of the markets Pacific Union serves, and we expect it to entice move-up buyers to act – making them a likely source for new, mid-tier inventory.

For specific market performance or advice on your specific property, please reach out to your local Pacific Union real estate professional. And enjoy the warmer spring months!

Mark A. McLaughlin, CEO, Pacific Union International

Please remember to seek out local news, trend analysis, and expert advice for your real estate decisions.

http://blog.pacunion.com/bay-area-job-growth-leads-nation/

http://blog.pacunion.com/housing-leads-california-u-s-recovery-signals-strong-sales-in-2013-ucla-analysis/

http://blog.pacunion.com/rising-prices-mean-fewer-homes-underwater/

The Sellers’ Market Heats Up

It has been a bitterly cold few years for would-be sellers in the Bay Area, but spring is bringing welcome warmth for both home values and buyer activity.

Home prices have been rising for a year across all of Pacific Union’s eight regions in the Bay Area and Tahoe/Truckee. In San Francisco the median sales price of homes rose nearly 30 percent in the first quarter from a year earlier, and double-digit increases were recorded in all other regions as well.

In a recent Wall Street Journal survey economists agreed that home prices will continue rising at least through 2017, and the Bay Area’s strong economy suggests price increases here will outpace those in most of the rest of the nation.

Those rising values translate to greater equity, and many homeowners who believe they are “underwater” – owing more on their mortgages than their homes are worth – may be surprised to learn that they’ve regained equity based on recent sale prices for comparable homes in their neighborhood.

Why the lift? In part it’s because a persistent shortage of homes for sale has created a veritable army of aggressive and highly motivated buyers who are willing to outspend the competition. For example, in our East Bay offices, 90 percent of transactions in the first quarter involved multiple offers; on average, homes sold for 13 percent over asking price.

Homes in the Bay Area sold within weeks of coming on the market, frequently in all-cash deals, and multiple bids pushed sales prices above asking prices in all regions, much to the delight of sellers.

Overall, the increased velocity of real estate activity in the first quarter of 2013 was nothing short of remarkable.

This means that sellers looking to trade up to a higher-priced home may now make significant gains in the current market. For example, consider a homeowner whose property was valued at $300,000 in 2006 but dropped 20 percent in value to $240,000, for a loss of $60,000. That same 20 percent drop in value for a higher-priced home – say, a $450,000 home now valued at $360,000 – gives a trade-up buyer savings of $90,000, or a net gain of $30,000 on the new home.

CriteriaContra Costa

CountyEast Bay

Marin County

Napa County

San Francisco

SFH

San Francisco

Condo

Sonoma County

Sonoma Valley

Tahoe/ Truckee SFH

Tahoe/ Truckee Condo

Number of New Homes Listed, January-March

641 616 659 391 371 560 1306 126 123 64

Number of New Listings Sold By March 31

353 204 174 143 232 349 335 27 46 19

Percentage of New Listings Closed

55% 33% 26% 37% 63% 62% 26% 21% 35% 30%

Average Sales to List Price 102% 113% 102% 103% 108% 105% 101% 100% 99% 99%

Average Days On Market 13 13 27 39 20 23 32 29 13 13

Percentage of All-Cash Sales

30% 19% 34% 25% 29% 28% 38% 33% 24% 75%

Bay Area Market Velocity, Q1 2013

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/bayarea_market_velocity_4-11.pdf

Today’s low mortgage rates also offer serious savings to trade-up buyers. In 2002, when the interest rate on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage stood at 6.5 percent, the monthly payment on a $500,000 loan was $3,160. At current rates, which hover around 3.6 percent, approximately the same loan payment would buy a home with a $700,000 mortgage – a net gain of $200,000.

The benefit won’t last forever, so prospective sellers should move quickly: A report from the Mortgage Bankers Association predicts that rates will average 4.4 percent by the end of 2013. That 0.8 point rise will add $230 to the monthly payment on a $500,000 mortgage.

So if you’re thinking about selling in this blazing market, don’t get burned by waiting too long. And count on the expertise of a real estate professional who knows the local market to help assess your home’s current value and prospects.

Looks like it’s shaping up to be a hot season for sellers!

Bay Area 10-Year OverviewHere’s a look at home sales in the Bay Area’s real estate markets in the first quarter of 2013, with a glance back at the 10 preceding first quarters.

REGION Q1 '03 Q1 '04 Q1 '05 Q1 '06 Q1 '07 Q1 '08 Q1 '09 Q1 '10 Q1 '11 Q1 '12 Q1 '13

CONTRA COSTA COUNTY 2,393 2,436 2,436 2,095 1,791 1,310 2,892 2,288 2,456 2,552 2,159

EAST BAY 448 458 457 455 378 297 267 311 417 451 376

MARIN COUNTY 408 526 488 410 427 281 223 349 385 434 426

NAPA COUNTY 278 315 298 245 220 140 244 263 290 313 263

SAN FRANCISCO (SFH) 475 472 464 429 402 174 333 468 501 535 478

SAN FRANCISCO (condos) 426 524 501 484 458 319 216 372 479 485 490

SONOMA COUNTY 1,161 1,261 1,243 1,037 885 621 1,028 921 978 1,156 970

SONOMA VALLEY 100 149 136 97 81 75 84 88 103 114 103

TAHOE/TRUCKEE (SFH) n/a 171 154 118 135 121 91 149 164 198 183

TAHOE/TRUCKEE (condos) n/a 63 52 58 40 33 18 61 48 45 64

Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2012.

Click here to see specific 10-year data on key cities in the Bay Area.

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/10year_monsterchart_4-8.pdf

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/10year_monsterchart_4-8.pdf

Quarterly Real Estate Report Q1 2013

CONTRA COSTA COUNTY

Ellen AndersonSenior Vice President, Contra Costa [email protected] Sycamore Valley Road West | Danville, CA 94526

mailto:[email protected]

A Member Of Real Living


CONTRA COSTA COUNTY

Contra Costa County: Q1 ResultsThe last weeks of the first quarter brought some good news to the Contra Costa County real estate market: The number of homes for sale jumped noticeably after many months of shrinking inventory. The change didn’t come a moment too soon, as the average number of listings in the region was down 62 percent from a year earlier.

In such a squeezed market, homes priced at $800,000 to $1.2 million sold as quickly as they became available. Townhouses and condominiums priced below $800,000 went quickly too, while the pace was a bit slower in the market for homes above $1.8 million. Lafayette was exceptionally busy in the quarter, as was the general Lamorinda area.

With far more buyers than homes for sale, many resorted to off-market deals – buying properties before they had a chance to get listed on a local MLS. One-third of sales in the quarter were all-cash deals, an unusually high number.

First-time homebuyers had an ample supply of homes to choose from several years ago, including short sales and foreclosures. But distressed sales have dried up and today’s competitive market has left those buyers scrambling to get any house available or find themselves crowded out of the market entirely.

Looking Forward: The recent influx of homes for sale will likely continue as rising prices prompt sellers to jump into the market. We expect April to be a busy month, with strong sales continuing through the rest of the second quarter and beyond.Defining Contra Costa County: Our real estate markets in Contra Costa County include the cities of Alamo, Blackhawk, Concord, Danville, Diablo, Lafayette, Martinez, Moraga, Orinda, Pleasant Hill, San Ramon, and Walnut Creek. Sales data in the charts below includes single-family homes in these communities.

Median Sales Price

Months’ Supply of Inventory

$580,450

$635,000 $681,250 $668,000 $668,500

$635,000 $655,000 $642,500

$615,750 $625,000 $582,000 $605,000

$720,000

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

Mar '12 Apr '12 May '12 Jun '12 Jul '12 Aug '12 Sep '12 Oct '12 Nov '12 Dec '12 Jan '13 Feb '13 Mar '13

Source: MAXEBRD, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: SFMLS, October 3, 2012 Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Median sales price for single-family homes in Contra Costa County.

1.9 1.7

1.5

1.3 1.3 1.2

1.6

1.4

1.0

0.8

1.4 1.4

0.9

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2


Source: MAXEBRD, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: SFMLS, October 3, 2012 Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in Contra Costa County.

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/contracosta_chart1_mediansalesprice_4-8.pdf

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/contracosta_chart2_msi_4-8.pdf



CONTRA COSTA COUNTY

Percentage of Properties Under Contract

Average Days on the Market

Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price

37.2% 35.8% 39.1% 37.7% 37.2% 37.9% 36.7% 38.1%

40.1% 39.1% 43.0%

46.8%

58.4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%


Source: MAXEBRD, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in Contra Costa County.

52

44

36 34

29

36

28 27 25 29 30 30

23

0

10

20

30

40

50

60


Source: MAXEBRD, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: SFMLS, October 3, 2012 Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Average days on market for single-family homes under contract in Contra Costa County.

94.4%

95.6%

97.8% 97.1%

97.8%

97.0% 97.9%

98.6% 99.1%

97.9% 98.5%

99.5%

100.7%

90%

92%

94%

96%

98%

100%

102%


Source: MAXEBRD, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Sales price as a percentage of original asking price (all adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in Contra Costa County.

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/contracosta_chart4_percentundercontract_4-8.pdf

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/contracosta_chart3_averagedom_4-8.pdf

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/contracosta_chart5_salesprice_originalprice_4-8.pdf



CONTRA COSTA COUNTY

A Closer Look at Contra Costa County

Q1 '12 Q1 '13 % change Q1 '12 Q1 '13 % change Q1 '12 Q1 '13 % change Q1 '12 Q1 '13 % change

Alamo 67,130,622$ 53,415,278$ -20% 48 41 -15% 97 25 -74% 1,052,000$ 1,299,000$ 23%

Blackhawk 19,599,600$ 21,982,980$ 12% 15 20 33% 128 53 -58% 1,185,000$ 1,001,500$ -15%

Concord 84,539,245$ 89,559,857$ 6% 279 241 -14% 52 22 -57% 288,000$ 355,000$ 23%

Danville 85,695,725$ 100,743,854$ 18% 106 105 -1% 50 37 -27% 743,000$ 880,000$ 18%

Diablo 3,382,000$ 8,731,250$ 158% 3 4 33% 102 107 5% 985,000$ 2,115,625$ 115%

Lafayette 44,741,230$ 74,081,806$ 66% 44 55 25% 42 40 -4% 790,000$ 1,230,000$ 56%

Martinez 28,752,260$ 34,174,099$ 19% 97 96 -1% 50 28 -45% 292,000$ 340,000$ 16%

Moraga 24,287,000$ 26,158,500$ 8% 25 23 -8% 66 34 -48% 860,000$ 1,050,000$ 22%

Orinda 24,554,000$ 38,012,108$ 55% 25 33 32% 72 29 -60% 920,000$ 1,000,000$ 9%

PleasantHill

27,581,785$ 30,369,625$ 10% 67 63 -6% 40 27 -32% 390,000$ 465,000$ 19%

San Ramon 92,803,369$ 95,788,538$ 3% 126 117 -7% 41 20 -50% 735,000$ 765,000$ 4%

Walnut Creek 59,144,545$ 79,980,840$ 35% 91 103 13% 57 20 -65% 634,000$ 735,000$ 16%

Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Data is for single-family homes in selected Contra Costa County cities.

Contra Costa County Snapshot: Q1 2012 vs. Q1 2013Sales Volume Homes Sold Avg. Days on Market Median Price

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/contracosta_chart6_section2_cities_4-8.pdf


EAST BAY

Pam HoffmanSenior Vice President, Managing Broker, East Bay [email protected] Mountain Boulevard | Oakland, CA 94611




EAST BAY

East Bay: Q1 ResultsHow tight was the supply of East Bay homes for sale in the first quarter? One statistic says it all: Fully 90 percent of the transactions in Pacific Union’s Montclair and Berkeley offices involved multiple offers, with the number of bids rising into double digits for many homes.

The tight supply proved challenging for first-time buyers, who increasingly found themselves outbid or priced out of their preferred neighborhoods. The number of short sales and foreclosed homes was down considerably in the quarter, further limiting the supply of lower-priced properties for first-time buyers.

Homes sold quickly in the quarter, with an increasing number of all-cash transactions.

Sellers enjoyed higher prices than they’ve seen in years, with homes frequently selling for more than 10 percent above the asking price.

Looking Forward: We’re optimistic that rising prices and attractive offers will coax more homeowners to put their properties on the market in the second quarter and beyond, with more than enough demand to meet the supply. Rising home equity, thanks to recent price increases, may pleasantly surprise sellers, prompting them to become trade-up buyers themselves.Defining the East Bay: Our real estate markets in the East Bay include Oakland ZIP codes 94602, 94609, 94610, 94611, 94618, 94619, and 94705; Albany; Berkeley; El Cerrito; Kensington; and Piedmont. Sales data in the charts below includes single-family homes in these communities.

Median Sales Price


$520,000

$581,000 $588,500 $644,000 $623,333

$601,475 $572,500

$624,500 $650,000

$610,000 $584,275 $646,000

$728,000

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000


Source: MAXEBRD, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: SFMLS, October 3, 2012 Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Median sales price for single-family homes in the East Bay.

1.9 2.0

1.4 1.2 1.1 1.1

1.9

1.0 0.9

0.4

1.1

1.8

1.0

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5


Source: MAXEBRD, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: SFMLS, October 3, 2012 Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in the East Bay.

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/eastbay_chart1_mediansalesprice_4-8.pdf

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/eastbay_chart2_msi_4-8.pdf



EAST BAY




38.2% 36.4%

42.3% 41.4% 38.4% 39.6% 36.1%

45.4% 43.9% 47.0%

41.6% 41.9%

56.7%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%


Source: MAXEBRD, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in the East Bay.

45

32 31 28

31 29

31

27 27

32 31

27

19

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50


Source: MAXEBRD, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: SFMLS, October 3, 2012 Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Average days on market for single-family homes under contract in the East Bay.

96.1%

100.2% 102.7% 103.0% 102.0% 102.7%

100.4%

104.6% 102.1% 101.8%

102.6%

106.7%

110.6%

85%

90%

95%

100%

105%

110%

115%


Source: MAXEBRD, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Sales price as a percentage of original asking price (all adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in the East Bay.

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/eastbay_chart4_percentundercontract_4-8.pdf

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/eastbay_chart3_averagedom_4-8.pdf

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/eastbay_chart5_salesprice_originalprice_4-8.pdf



EAST BAY

A Closer Look at the East Bay


Albany 6,130,665$ 12,139,000$ 98% 12 18 50% 51 14 -72% 420,250$ 636,500$ 51%

Berkeley 57,435,757$ 53,703,840$ -6% 97 64 -34% 33 18 -46% 543,000$ 720,000$ 33%

El Cerrito 19,705,200$ 23,955,526$ 22% 47 42 -11% 47 21 -55% 420,000$ 557,250$ 33%

Kensington 6,273,254$ 5,695,000$ -9% 9 7 -22% 63 18 -72% 675,000$ 720,500$ 7%

Oakland* 140,866,357$ 150,294,978$ 7% 267 230 -14% 50 29 -42% 462,000$ 653,500$ 41%

Piedmont 24,234,337$ 23,653,000$ -2% 19 15 -21% 26 21 -22% 1,210,000$ 1,405,000$ 16%

East Bay Snapshot: Q1 2012 vs. Q1 2013

*Oakland ZIP codes 94602, 94609, 94610, 94611, 94618, 94619, and 94705.

Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Data is for single-family homes in selected East Bay cities.

Sales Volume Homes Sold Avg. Days on Market Median Price

Neighborhood

Q1 '12 Q1 '13 % change Q1 '12 Q1 '13 % change

Montclair / Joaquin Miller 560,456$ 625,799$ 12% 1,176,416$ 1,020,142$ -13%

Crocker Highlands / Grand Lake 554,092$ 617,785$ 11% 931,000$ 954,285$ 3%

Rockridge / Claremont 655,400$ 734,666$ 12% 1,235,800$ 1,056,750$ -14%

Glenview / Oakmore 559,559$ 588,850$ 5% 843,333$ 999,785$ 19%

Laurel / Dimond 305,000$ 419,438$ 38% n/a n/a n/a

Redwood Heights / Lincoln Heights 487,311$ 658,538$ 35% n/a n/a n/a

Crestmont / Ridgemont / Skyline 575,000$ 703,333$ 22% 962,580$ 986,350$ 2%

Temescal / Piedmont Ave. 528,125$ 606,505$ 15% n/a 1,128,333$ n/a

Source: EBRD, April 4, 2013. Data is for single-family homes in selected Oakland neighborhoods.

Oakland Price Changes Snapshot: Q1 2012 vs. Q1 2013Average Price <$800,000 Average Price $800,000 +


Under $500,000

73,960,085$ 32,418,879$ -56% 226 95 -58% 49 34 -32% 346,750$ 342,000$ -1%

Over $500,000

180,685,485$ 237,022,465$ 31% 225 281 25% 41 22 -47% 700,000$ 745,000$ 6%

$500,000 - $1 million

128,900,498$ 161,169,465$ 25% 189 227 20% 42 22 -49% 650,000$ 690,000$ 6%

Over $1 million

51,784,987$ 75,853,000$ 46% 36 54 50% 34 22 -35% 1,287,500$ 1,248,500$ -3%

East Bay Price Range Snapshot: Q1 2012 vs. Q1 2013

Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Data is for East Bay single-family homes: Albany, Berkeley, El Cerrito, Kensington, Piedmont, and Oakland ZIP codes 94602, 94609, 94610, 94611, 94618, 94619, 94705.


http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/eastbay_chart6_section2_cities_4-8.pdf

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/eastbay_chart8_section2_pricechanges.pdf

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/eastbay_chart7_section2_prices_4-8.pdf


MARIN COUNTY

Brent ThomsonSenior Vice President, Marin [email protected] Redwood Highway, Suite 150 | Mill Valley, CA 94941




MARIN COUNTY

Marin County: Q1 ResultsMarin County sellers enjoyed the best of both worlds in the first quarter of 2013: Their homes sold quicker than they have in years, and median sale prices rose considerably. For buyers, it was another story. The supply of homes for sale continued to shrink and multiple offers were rampant – frequently a dozen or more offers for a single property. In particular, many first-time buyers were disheartened as others topped their bids with all-cash offers time and again.

The tight market prompted a rise in off-market deals – transactions that close without ever being listed on real estate websites or multiple listing services.

Ross was especially active in all price points, especially the market for homes priced at $2 million and higher. In Novato, homes priced at $800,000 to $900,000 sold as soon as they became available, and sales rose noticeably in the $2 million-plus market. Mill Valley, San Rafael, and Corte Madera were also busy in the quarter.

The quarter saw fewer distressed homes on the market. In recent years, the number of short sales, foreclosures, and bank-owned homes had been on the rise, but that supply has mostly sold. Investors remain active in the market, though their numbers are not as high as in 2011 and 2012.

Looking Forward: We expect to see more homes coming on the market in April and continuing through the summer months. Multiple offers will remain the norm throughout the second quarter, although a greater supply of homes will bring more balance to the market.Defining Marin County: Our real estate markets include the cities of Belvedere, Corte Madera, Fairfax, Greenbrae, Kentfield, Larkspur, Mill Valley, Novato, Ross, San Anselmo, San Rafael, Sausalito, and Tiburon. Sales data in the charts below includes single-family homes in these communities.

Median Sales Price


$678,000

$775,000 $772,500 $790,850

$846,000

$782,500 $790,000 $775,000

$855,000

$775,000 $790,000 $835,000 $851,000

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

$900,000


Source: MAXEBRD, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: SFMLS, October 3, 2012 Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Median sales price for single-family homes in Marin County.

3.1

2.6 2.6 2.6 2.5

2.2

3.1

2.2 2.2

1.4

2.3 2.1

1.3

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5


Source: MAXEBRD, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: SFMLS, October 3, 2012 Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in Marin County.

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/marin_chart1_mediansalesprice_4-8.pdf

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/marin_chart2_msi_4-8.pdf



MARIN COUNTY




29.5% 27.2% 28.2%

23.7% 23.2% 26.3% 25.6%

23.1% 24.6%

28.3%

34.1%

38.8%

47.5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%


Source: MAXEBRD, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in Marin County.

94

72 72 67

79 74

78 74 77

85

102

89 80

0

20

40

60

80

100

120


Source: MAXEBRD, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: SFMLS, October 3, 2012 Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Average days on market for single-family homes under contract in Marin County.

91.6%

95.8%

94.1%

95.3% 95.6% 95.6%

93.9% 94.8%

92.9% 92.8%

91.9%

92.9%

96.9%

88%

89%

90%

91%

92%

93%

94%

95%

96%

97%

98%


Source: MAXEBRD, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Sales price as a percentage of original asking price (all adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in Marin County.

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/marin_chart4_percentundercontract_4-8.pdf

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/marin_chart3_averagedom_4-8.pdf

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/marin_chart5_salesprice_originalprice_4-8.pdf



MARIN COUNTY

A Closer Look at Marin County


Belvedere 26,161,500$ 32,505,000$ 24% 7 10 43% 188 153 -19% 4,200,000$ 2,537,500$ -40%

Corte Madera

7,183,000$ 18,705,500$ 160% 9 17 89% 98 47 -52% 787,000$ 869,000$ 10%

Fairfax 7,303,000$ 12,007,800$ 64% 15 18 20% 114 134 18% 360,000$ 686,150$ 91%

Greenbrae 5,991,000$ 9,759,800$ 63% 6 8 33% 57 56 -1% 979,000$ 1,150,000$ 17%

Kentfield 15,665,000$ 25,390,350$ 62% 6 12 100% 88 52 -41% 2,375,000$ 1,530,000$ -36%

Larkspur 21,008,500$ 14,772,846$ -30% 19 12 -37% 95 58 -39% 1,077,000$ 1,296,923$ 20%

Mill Valley 64,835,400$ 68,722,250$ 6% 55 61 11% 91 89 -2% 1,045,000$ 929,000$ -11%

Novato 54,124,909$ 60,229,340$ 11% 95 90 -5% 103 74 -28% 520,000$ 640,000$ 23%

Ross 5,170,000$ 16,738,540$ 224% 5 8 60% 93 82 -13% 855,000$ 1,962,500$ 130%

San Anselmo 24,664,865$ 38,238,256$ 55% 33 40 21% 92 107 16% 655,000$ 765,750$ 17%

San Rafael 73,092,683$ 82,472,226$ 13% 102 93 -9% 111 88 -21% 597,000$ 771,200$ 29%

Sausalito 17,540,000$ 12,670,200$ -28% 13 8 -38% 113 92 -19% 1,415,000$ 1,114,450$ -21%

Tiburon 53,625,085$ 35,224,000$ -34% 28 20 -29% 92 121 32% 1,702,500$ 1,585,000$ -7%

Marin County Snapshot: Q1 2012 vs. Q1 2013

Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Data is for single-family homes in selected Marin County cities.


http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/marin_chart6_section2_cities_4-8.pdf


NAPA COUNTY

Linda CarrollBranch Executive, Napa [email protected] Main Street | Napa, CA 94559




NAPA COUNTY

Napa County: Q1 ResultsAfter a very slow January and February, home sales took off in March across Napa County. Low inventory contributed to the early slowdown, but pent-up demand eventually won out and the pace picked up considerably by the end of the quarter. Multiple offers were the norm for fairly priced properties, with many receiving 10 to 15 bids – helping to raise purchase prices accordingly.

One home, listed at $349,000, landed 20 bids and went into escrow within 10 days, receiving a substantially higher offering price in an all-cash, no-contingencies deal. Another home, listed for $3.8 million, received four offers, a rarity in the luxury home market. It is also becoming more common to see homes being sold “off-market” – before the properties are listed with an MLS – because of the heightened demand.

The furious bidding can prove demoralizing for some buyers, weary after writing four or five offers with no success. Our real estate professionals have worked to keep buyer expectations in check, while helping them craft offer letters that get results.

Looking Forward: The coming year should see more of the robust activity experienced during the last part of the first quarter, although the marketplace remains very constrained by lack of inventory. Given the number of multiple offers on the majority of properties, it is clear that buyers are in abundance. Until inventory increases, multiple offers will continue to be the norm.Defining Napa County: Our real estate markets in Napa County include the cities of Angwin, Calistoga, Napa, Oakville, Rutherford, St. Helena, and Yountville. Sales data in the charts below includes all single-family homes in Napa County.

Median Sales Price


$340,000 $352,000 $347,625 $353,000

$400,000

$377,500 $360,000

$414,000

$370,000 $355,000

$410,000 $430,000

$416,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000


Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: SFMLS, October 3, 2012 Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Median sales price for single-family homes in Napa County.

4.1 4.3

3.1

3.7 3.9

3.3

3.9

2.7 2.8 2.9

3.3 3.1

2.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5


Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: SFMLS, October 3, 2012 Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in Napa County.

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/napa_chart2_msi_4-8.pdf



NAPA COUNTY




21.6% 20.4% 22.1%

19.4% 18.1% 19.9% 20.3% 19.4% 16.6%

18.9%

26.7% 26.9%

33.5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%


Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in Napa County.

111 103 117 115

144

114 104

100 103

118 111

92 100

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160


Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: SFMLS, October 3, 2012 Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Average days on market for single-family homes under contract in Napa County.

89.6% 89.6%

91.3% 90.9% 91.2%

94.7% 93.4%

92.1% 93.2%

86.5%

91.5%

95.5%

93.8%

80%

82%

84%

86%

88%

90%

92%

94%

96%

98%


Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Sales price as a percentage of original asking price (all adjustments) for single-family homes under contract in Napa County.

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/napa_chart4_percentundercontract_4-8.pdf

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/napa_chart3_averagedom_4-8.pdf

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/napa_chart5_salesprice_originalprice_4-8.pdf



NAPA COUNTY

A Closer Look at Napa County


American Canyon

19,571,576$ 12,857,999$ -34% 69 37 -46% 88 50 -43% 300,000$ 345,000$ 15%

Angwin 2,297,000$ 2,893,000$ 26% 3 7 133% 77 126 63% 456,000$ 469,000$ 3%

Calistoga 7,309,000$ 6,352,000$ -13% 9 9 0% 282 112 -60% 720,000$ 433,000$ -40%

Napa 96,848,865$ 89,112,671$ -8% 207 180 -13% 118 99 -17% 345,000$ 413,500$ 20%

St. Helena 22,623,400$ 22,058,500$ -2% 18 25 39% 177 159 -10% 755,000$ 750,000$ -1%

Yountville 2,707,500$ 2,760,000$ 2% 5 3 -40% 148 220 48% 550,000$ 750,000$ 36%

Napa County Snapshot: Q1 2012 vs. Q1 2013

Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Data is for single-family homes in selected Napa County cities.



Under $500,000

69,518,987$ 55,863,120$ -20% 237 168 -29% 102 81 -21% 300,000$ 338,063$ 13%

$500,000 - $999,999

33,397,553$ 53,124,550$ 59% 50 77 54% 142 122 -14% 645,000$ 679,000$ 5%

$1 million - $3 million

36,697,500$ 24,187,500$ -34% 24 17 -29% 209 202 -4% 1,330,000$ 1,380,000$ 4%

Over $3 million

12,200,000$ 3,100,000$ -75% 2 1 -50% 175 144 -17% 6,100,000$ 3,100,000$ -49%

Napa County Price Range Snapshot: Q1 2012 vs. Q1 2013

Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Data is for single-family homes in Napa County.


http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/napa_chart6_section2_cities_4-8.pdf

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/napa_chart7_section2_prices_4-8.pdf


SAN FRANCISCO

Patrick BarberPresident, San Francisco Region [email protected] Letterman Drive, Building C, Suite 300 | San Francisco, CA 94129




SAN FRANCISCO

San Francisco: Q1 ResultsPent-up buyer demand and a tight supply of homes continued to push San Francisco home prices higher in the first quarter. One home received 34 bids before the sale closed, and a dozen to 15 offers on a single property were commonplace. All neighborhoods and price points saw robust activity in the quarter, with many buyers making offers above the asking price for homes in NoPa (the area north of Golden Gate Park’s Panhandle) while local and foreign buyers bid up properties in the Sunset District.

Like the Peninsula, San Francisco saw a rising number of buyers from China making all-cash bids for homes, often sight-unseen. Homes sold quickly. In mid-March three homes sold in a single day before the first broker open house had been scheduled, and one buyer bought three NoPa condominiums before the properties hit the local MLS.

Distressed properties, including foreclosures, short sales, and bank-owned properties, were few and far between. With prices rising and such a limited inventory of homes on the market, owners who can’t hold onto their properties are finding solutions to their problems more easily.

Looking Forward: Talk of new homes coming on the market picked up significantly at the end of the first quarter. Additional homes will benefit buyers with less-frenzied bidding, although multiple offers will remain the norm in the second and third quarters before the region moves to a more balanced market by the end of the year. Sellers can expect to see rising prices for much of 2013.

Single Family Homes – Median Sales Price

Condominiums – Median Sales Price

$711,500

$760,000 $781,000 $780,000 $759,000 $766,500 $725,000

$830,000 $810,000 $837,500

$748,000 $801,000

$920,000

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

$900,000

$1,000,000


Source: SFMLS, October 3, 2012 Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Median sales price for single-family homes in San Francisco.

$650,000

$730,250 $724,000 $745,000 $756,000

$735,000 $780,000

$820,000 $812,000 $755,000 $775,000

$818,000 $857,500

$100,000

$200,000

$300,000

$400,000

$500,000

$600,000

$700,000

$800,000

$900,000


Source: SFMLS, October 3, 2012 Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Median sales price for condominiums in San Francisco.

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/sanfran_chart1_mediansalesprice_sfh_4-8.pdf

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/sanfran_chart2_mediansalesprice_condos_4-8.pdf



SAN FRANCISCO

Condominiums – Months’ Supply of Inventory

Single Family Homes – Months’ Supply of Inventory

Single Family Homes – Average Days on the Market

2.0 1.8

1.9

1.5

1.7

1.3

2.0

1.6

1.3

1.0

1.9 1.8

1.0

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5


Source: SFMLS, October 3, 2012 Source: SFMLS, October 3, 2012 Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Months' supply of inventory for condominiums in San Francisco.

2.0 2.0

1.6 1.4

1.6 1.5

2.4

1.5

1.2 1.0

1.6

2.0

1.1

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3


Source: SFMLS, October 3, 2012 Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in San Francisco.

65

54

47

59

47 50 46 45

42

58

47

41 38

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70


Source: SFMLS, October 3, 2012 Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Average days on market for single-family homes under contract in San Francisco.

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/sanfran_chart4_msi_condos_4-8.pdf

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/sanfran_chart3_msi_sfh_4-8.pdf

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/sanfran_chart5_averagedom_sfh_4-8.pdf

Single Family Homes – Percentage of Properties Under Contract

Condominiums – Average Days on the Market

Condominiums – Percentage of Properties Under Contract

34.4% 31.0%

38.7%

31.4%

36.8%

32.4% 32.8%

40.6% 37.6%

35.8% 34.8% 38.7%

49.0%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%


Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in San Francisco.

68 70

53 57 54

67

58 63

44

57 62

45

38

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80


Source: SFMLS, October 3, 2012 Source: SFMLS, October 3, 2012 Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Average days on market for condominiums under contract in San Francisco.

33.9% 33.3% 37.1%

33.8% 36.8%

33.0% 32.8% 36.7% 35.1%

32.9%

37.5% 40.4%

50.8%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%


Source: SFMLS, October 3, 2012 Source: SFMLS, October 3, 2012 Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Percentage of condominiums under contract in San Francisco.



SAN FRANCISCO

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/sanfran_chart7_percentundercontract_sfh_4-8.pdf

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/sanfran_chart6_averagedom_condos_4-8.pdf

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/sanfran_chart8_percentundercontract_condos_4-8.pdf



SAN FRANCISCO

Single Family Homes – Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price

Condominiums – Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price

100.0% 101.2%

102.9% 101.4%

99.4% 102.6%

105.1%

100.8% 103.1%

90.9%

102.5% 103.6% 105.2%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

105%

110%


Source: SFMLS, October 3, 2012 Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Sales price as a percentage of original asking price (all adjustments) for single-family homes in San Francisco.

98.9% 98.7%

101.0% 100.5% 100.5%

100.2% 100.7%

103.1%

100.6%

99.2% 99.5%

102.3%

104.2%

96%

97%

98%

99%

100%

101%

102%

103%

104%

105%


Source: SFMLS, October 3, 2012 Source: SFMLS, October 3, 2012 Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Sales price as a percentage of original asking price (all adjustments) for condominiums in San Francisco.

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/sanfran_chart9_salesprice_originalprice_sfh_4-8.pdf

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/sanfran_chart10_salesprice_originalprice_condos_4-8.pdf



SAN FRANCISCO

Delving into San Francisco’s Districts

San Francisco is defined by 10 separate districts, each of which encompasses several neighborhoods.

District 1: Inner Richmond, Central Richmond, Outer Richmond, JordanPark/Laurel Heights, Lake, Lone Mountain, Sea Cliff.District 2: Outer Sunset, Central Sunset, Inner Sunset, Outer Parkside, Parkside, Inner Parkside, Golden Gate Heights.District 3: Pine Lake Park, Merced Manor, Lake Shore, Lakeside, Stonestown, Merced Heights, Ingleside, Ingleside Heights, Oceanview.District 4: Balboa Terrace, Diamond Heights, Forest Hill, Forest Hill Extension, Forest Knolls, Ingleside Terrace, Midtown Terrace, Miraloma Park, Monterey Heights, Mount Davidson Manor, Sherwood Forest, St. Francis Wood, Sunnyside, West Portal, Westwood Highlands, Westwood Park.District 5: Buena Vista/Ashbury Heights, Clarendon Heights, Cole Valley/Parnassus Heights, Corona Heights, Duboce Triangle, Eureka Valley/Dolores Heights, Glen Park, Haight-Ashbury, Mission Dolores, Noe Valley, Twin Peaks.District 6: Alamo Square, Anza Vista, Hayes Valley, Lower Pacific Heights, North Panhandle, Western Addition.District 7: Cow Hollow, Marina, Pacific Heights, Presidio Heights.District 8: Downtown, Financial District/Barbary Coast, Nob Hill, North Beach, North Waterfront, Russian Hill, Telegraph Hill, Tenderloin, Van Ness/Civic Center.District 9: Bernal Heights, Central Waterfront/Dogpatch, Inner Mission, Mission Bay, Potrero Hill, South Beach, South of Market, Yerba Buena.District 10: Bayview, Bayview Heights, Candlestick Point, Crocker Amazon, Excelsior, Hunters Point, Little Hollywood, Outer Mission, Mission Terrace, Portola, Silver Terrace, Visitacion Valley.



SAN FRANCISCO


District 1 48,144,388$ 60,958,100$ 27% 45 38 -16% 58 36 -39% 830,000$ 1,156,250$ 39%

District 2 65,866,300$ 70,493,988$ 7% 93 80 -14% 72 52 -27% 675,000$ 795,000$ 18%

District 3 21,841,499$ 13,973,400$ -36% 41 22 -46% 75 44 -41% 469,000$ 598,500$ 28%

District 4 47,508,630$ 72,888,400$ 53% 55 62 13% 65 38 -42% 825,000$ 947,500$ 15%

District 5 113,198,751$ 124,736,153$ 10% 72 68 -6% 64 40 -36% 1,470,000$ 1,584,336$ 8%

District 6 11,630,000$ 14,345,000$ 23% 10 6 -40% 62 57 -9% 1,092,500$ 2,450,000$ 124%

District 7 92,802,500$ 80,208,999$ -14% 23 19 -17% 53 58 9% 2,850,000$ 4,000,000$ 40%

District 8 12,298,000$ 10,020,000$ -19% 5 4 -20% 116 64 -45% 1,843,000$ 2,900,000$ 57%

District 9 33,558,900$ 46,976,500$ 40% 46 52 13% 61 43 -29% 665,000$ 859,500$ 29%

District 10 63,542,036$ 67,927,699$ 7% 145 127 -12% 73 35 -52% 440,000$ 550,000$ 25%

San Francisco Snapshot (SFH): Q1 2012 vs. Q1 2013

Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Data is for single-family homes in San Francisco districts.



District 1 23,790,000$ 23,613,000$ -1% 35 30 -14% 70 60 -15% 655,000$ 776,000$ 18%

District 2 6,330,500$ 8,605,000$ 36% 11 10 -9% 88 33 -63% 555,000$ 825,000$ 49%

District 3 3,430,388$ 3,402,088$ -1% 13 9 -31% 99 21 -79% 254,000$ 332,500$ 31%

District 4 5,584,550$ 6,115,269$ 10% 13 12 -8% 107 69 -35% 350,000$ 407,250$ 16%

District 5 68,387,337$ 61,099,888$ -11% 75 64 -15% 61 42 -31% 844,000$ 907,500$ 8%

District 6 28,167,800$ 40,449,999$ 44% 41 52 27% 81 40 -51% 685,000$ 732,500$ 7%

District 7 56,004,735$ 76,902,000$ 37% 50 65 30% 69 46 -34% 942,025$ 1,085,000$ 15%

District 8 77,031,778$ 66,720,918$ -13% 99 72 -27% 89 47 -47% 605,000$ 754,750$ 25%

District 9 87,762,034$ 154,288,441$ 76% 131 163 24% 80 45 -44% 605,000$ 839,000$ 39%

District 10 5,642,398$ 4,662,000$ -17% 17 13 -24% 162 93 -43% 295,985$ 359,000$ 21%

San Francisco Snapshot (Condos): Q1 2012 vs. Q1 2013

Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Data is for condominiums in San Francisco districts.


http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/sanfran_chart11_section2_districts_sfh_4-8.pdf

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/sanfran_chart12_section2_districts_condos_4-8.pdf



SAN FRANCISCO


Under $1 million

241,744,553$ 205,152,187$ -15% 411 309 -25% 71 42 -42% 574,000$ 660,000$ 15%


189,223,951$ 232,888,753$ 23% 110 143 30% 55 41 -25% 1,542,500$ 1,400,000$ -9%

Over $3 million

79,422,500$ 124,487,299$ 57% 14 26 86% 68 49 -28% 4,670,000$ 4,375,000$ -6%

San Francisco Price Range Snapshot (SFH): Q1 2012 vs. Q1 2013

Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Data is for single-family homes in San Francisco County.



Under $1 million

235,476,177$ 229,314,078$ -3% 401 341 -15% 85 51 -40% 586,000$ 700,000$ 19%


98,305,343$ 177,775,525$ 81% 74 134 81% 63 36 -43% 1,261,000$ 1,280,750$ 2%

Over $2 million

28,350,000$ 38,769,000$ 37% 10 15 50% 79 39 -50% 2,700,500$ 2,299,000$ -15%

San Francisco Price Range Snapshot (Condos): Q1 2012 vs. Q1 2013

Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2012. Data is for condominiums in San Francisco County.


http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/sanfran_chart13_section2_prices_sfh_4-8.pdf

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/sanfran_chart14_section2_prices_condos_4-8.pdf


SONOMA COUNTY

Rick LawsSenior Vice President, Sonoma [email protected] Mendocino Avenue, Suite 210 | Santa Rosa, CA 95403




SONOMA COUNTY

Sonoma County: Q1 ResultsWith a limited supply of homes for sale, new listings in Sonoma County typically received multiple offers as soon as they came on the market in the first quarter – except for those homes that landed pre-emptive offers and sold quickly in an off-market deal. In such an environment, it comes as no surprise that homes sold quicker and at higher prices than we’ve seen in many years.

Sellers have a distinct advantage in the current marketplace. In a more balanced market a buyer typically might attach contingencies to an offer, making the deal dependent on a pest inspection or an appraisal, for example. Lately, however, we’ve seen buyers offering contingencies to the seller. These include offers that give sellers time to find a new home and waive inspections and appraisals, as well as all-cash deals well above the asking price. In such a tricky marketplace, with many buyers willing to accept greater risk to close a deal, the expertise of a local real estate professional can make a huge difference in the outcome.

Distressed properties, such as foreclosures and bank-owned homes, had been a dominant force in local real estate in recent years, but few such homes were available in the first quarter as the supply began to dry up. We saw an increased interest in second homes, and more homeowners looking to move up to higher-priced properties.

Looking Forward: We expect to see more sellers enter the market as they realize how much equity their homes have accumulated over the past year. Multiple offers will remain the norm until the supply bottleneck eases.Defining Sonoma County: Our real estate markets include the cities of Cotati, Healdsburg, Penngrove, Petaluma, Rohnert Park, Santa Rosa, Sebastopol, and Windsor. Sales data in the charts below includes all single-family homes, farms, and ranches in Sonoma County.

Median Sales Price


$319,000

$345,000 $329,500

$348,000 $348,500 $385,000

$355,000 $367,000 $375,000 $389,500

$365,000 $380,000

$398,750

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000


Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: SFMLS, October 3, 2012 Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Median sales price for single-family homes and farms/ranches in Sonoma County.

2.8 2.9

2.6 2.5 2.5

2.2

2.7

1.9 2.0 1.9

2.4 2.3

1.6

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5


Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: SFMLS, October 3, 2012 Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes and farms/ranches in Sonoma County.

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/sonomacounty_chart1_mediansalesprice_4-8.pdf

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/sonomacounty_chart2_msi_4-8.pdf



SONOMA COUNTY




25.8% 27.1% 27.2%

24.4%

27.2% 27.1% 25.6% 27.8%

24.1% 24.9%

31.0%

35.2%

42.4%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%


Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Percentage of single-family homes and farms/ranches under contract in Sonoma County.

120 106

98 94 98

90 90 93 101 99 100 99

93

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140


Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: SFMLS, October 3, 2012 Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Average days on market for single-family homes and farms/ranches under contract in Sonoma County.

90.6%

92.1%

94.5%

93.3%

94.3% 94.8%

95.9%

94.5% 94.0%

94.9%

95.9%

93.9%

96.1%

87%

88%

89%

90%

91%

92%

93%

94%

95%

96%

97%


Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Sales price as a percentage of original asking price (all adjustments) for SFH and farms/ranches under contract in Sonoma County.

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/sonomacounty_chart4_percentundercontract_4-8.pdf

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/sonomacounty_chart3_averagedom_4-8.pdf

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/sonomacounty_chart5_salesprice_originalprice_4-8.pdf



SONOMA COUNTY

A Closer Look at Sonoma County


Healdsburg 33,429,600$ 31,197,685$ -7% 43 39 -9% 175 125 -28% 458,000$ 505,000$ 10%

Petaluma 66,949,278$ 68,429,929$ 2% 171 135 -21% 126 79 -38% 340,000$ 425,000$ 25%

Rohnert Park 19,851,345$ 18,875,299$ -5% 69 53 -23% 108 59 -46% 279,000$ 355,000$ 27%

Santa Rosa 166,768,143$ 163,108,717$ -2% 491 394 -20% 112 85 -24% 295,000$ 356,500$ 21%

Sebastopol 19,012,818$ 29,895,386$ 57% 43 48 12% 106 103 -2% 399,000$ 526,500$ 32%

Windsor 26,429,427$ 23,157,095$ -12% 80 63 -21% 121 94 -23% 322,500$ 360,000$ 12%

Sonoma County Snapshot: Q1 2012 vs. Q1 2013

Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Data is for single-family homes and farms/ranches in selected Sonoma County cities.



Under $1 million

400,398,373$ 382,389,424$ -4% 1,127 927 -18% 119 91 -23% 315,000$ 375,000$ 19%

$1 million and over

66,650,686$ 77,974,806$ 17% 29 43 48% 189 222 18% 1,500,100$ 1,360,000$ -9%

Sonoma County Price Range Snapshot: Q1 2012 vs. Q1 2013

Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Data is for single-family homes and farms/ranches in Sonoma County.


http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/sonomacounty_chart6_section2_cities_4-8.pdf

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/sonomacounty_chart7_section2_prices_4-8.pdf


SONOMA VALLEY

Jill SilvasBranch Executive, Sonoma [email protected] Broadway Street | Sonoma, CA 95476




SONOMA VALLEY

Sonoma Valley: Q1 ResultsAfter a brisk end to 2012, exhausted buyers and sellers stayed somewhat on the sidelines in January before venturing out again in February. By March, aided by sunshine and little rain, the Sonoma Valley real estate scene was as busy as ever, with buyers competing to submit offers and an increasing numbers of homes selling above their asking prices.

Homes priced from $500,000 to $800,000 – a price range that had been weaker for some time – saw robust sales in the region. Second-home buyers were active, along with investors who snapped up properties to convert into income-producing rentals. Short sales, foreclosures, and bank-owned homes had been major players in recent years, but their numbers appear to be decreasing rapidly.

Sellers started returning to the market by the end of the quarter, though not consistently, with a strong supply of new listings one week and few the next.

Looking Forward: After a steady supply of news stories on the shortage of local listings, sellers are getting the message that home prices are increasing and so is their equity – and historically low mortgage rates can help them move up to more expensive homes at a surprisingly good price. We expect home prices and listings to continue rising throughout the spring and summer selling season. Multiple offers will most likely remain the norm in the second quarter, and possibly beyond, before we see solid proof of a more balanced market.Defining Sonoma Valley: Our real estate markets in Sonoma Valley include the cities of Glen Ellen, Kenwood, and Sonoma. Sales data in the charts below refers to all residential properties – including single-family homes, condominiums, and farms and ranches – in these communities.

Median Sales Price


$392,500 $367,000 $392,500

$475,000

$391,250

$458,500

$382,875

$457,500 $459,000 $463,750

$397,000

$490,100

$401,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000

$550,000


Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: SFMLS, October 3, 2012 Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Median sales price for single-family homes, condominiums, and farms/ranches in Sonoma Valley.

4.3 3.9

3.6

2.5

3.9

2.4

2.8 2.8 2.4 2.4

3.6

2.8 2.5

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

4.5

5


Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: SFMLS, October 3, 2012 Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes, condominiums, and farms/ranches in Sonoma Valley.

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/sonomavalley_chart1_mediansalesprice_4-8.pdf

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/sonomavalley_chart2_msi_4-8.pdf



SONOMA VALLEY




20.3% 21.7%

27.7%

18.2%

22.8%

26.6%

17.6%

23.7%

17.3%

21.4% 21.2%

28.8%

32.1%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%


Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Percentage of single-family homes, condominiums, and farms/ranches under contract in Sonoma Valley.

129 118

144

96 80

110

84

118 122

101

141

88

107

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160


Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: SFMLS, October 3, 2012 Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Average days on market for single-family homes, condominiums, and farms/ranches under contract in Sonoma Valley.

88.6% 88.8%

91.9%

90.1%

95.7%

90.2%

91.6% 91.2% 91.2%

97.5%

90.3% 91.7%

94.3%

84%

86%

88%

90%

92%

94%

96%

98%

100%


Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: BAREIS, October 3, 2012 Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Sales price as a % of original asking price (all adjustments) for SFH, condos, and farms/ranches under contract in Sonoma Valley.

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/sonomavalley_chart4_percentundercontract_4-8.pdf

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/sonomavalley_chart3_averagedom_4-8.pdf

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/sonomavalley_chart5_salesprice_originalprice_4-8.pdf



SONOMA VALLEY


TAHOE/TRUCKEE

Sally GardnerBranch Executive, Tahoe/TruckeeTahoe City 530.581.1882 | Truckee [email protected]



TAHOE/TRUCKEE

Tahoe/Truckee: Q1 ResultsThe real estate market in Pacific Union’s Tahoe/Truckee region mirrored conditions in the Bay Area in the first quarter: a shortage of available homes, a surplus of buyers, and multiple offers the norm for fairly priced properties, whether modest condominiums or luxurious Sierra estates.

Homes for sale in the Tahoe Donner and Truckee market were few and far between, with only eight condos available in January and February. It was the lowest inventory in at least eight years, driving prices noticeably higher. The quarter saw an increased number of cash sales – for second homes, not investment properties – and very few short sales and other distressed properties. Ski communities were especially popular with homebuyers.

Tahoe/Truckee is a popular destination for Bay Area residents looking for vacation homes, and those that sold quickest, and at the highest prices, were in move-in condition – updated and remodeled. As a rule, second-home owners come to the region for its outdoor activities and unmatched scenery, not to remodel.

Looking Forward: The last few weeks of the first quarter saw an increase in home listings, and we expect to see even more in the spring and summer. The second quarter has always been a busy season for homebuyers, and the improving economy could lift sales throughout the year. However, we still expect to see multiple offers for attractive properties, and home prices should continue to rise throughout 2013.Defining Tahoe/Truckee: Our real estate markets in Tahoe/Truckee include the communities of Alpine Meadows, Donner Lake, Donner Summit, Lahontan, Martis Valley, North Shore Lake Tahoe, Northstar, Squaw Valley, Tahoe City, Tahoe Donner, Truckee, and the West Shore of Lake Tahoe.

Single Family Homes – Median Sales Price

Condominiums – Median Sales Price

$405,000

$452,500 $449,000 $449,000

$488,750 $465,000 $465,000

$450,000 $432,500

$475,000

$399,000

$469,250 $499,900

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000

$450,000

$500,000

$550,000


Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Median sales price for single-family homes in the Tahoe/Truckee region.

$210,000

$326,000 $320,000

$228,000 $244,000

$307,500

$235,000

$288,000 $295,000

$360,000

$290,000 $311,950

$377,000

$100,000

$150,000

$200,000

$250,000

$300,000

$350,000

$400,000


Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Median sales price for condominiums in the Tahoe/Truckee region.

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/tahoetruckee_chart1_mediansalesprice_sfh_4-8.pdf

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/tahoetruckee_chart2_mediansalesprice_condos_4-8.pdf

Condominiums – Months’ Supply of Inventory

Single Family Homes – Months’ Supply of Inventory

Single Family Homes – Average Days on the Market

11.5

14.3

7.4

9.6

14.4

7.8 6.9

5.5

6.9 6.2

8.2

10.8

6.3

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16


Source: SFMLS, October 3, 2012 Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Months' supply of inventory for condominiums in the Tahoe/Truckee region.

5.1

6.9 7.4

9.4

7.7

6.4 6.6

4.0 4.4 4.6

6.6 6.1

2.8

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10


Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Months' supply of inventory for single-family homes in the Tahoe/Truckee region.

127 126

74

113 87

102 117 115

137

164

109

198

102

0

50

100

150

200

250


Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Average days on market for single-family homes under contract in the Tahoe/Truckee region.


TAHOE/TRUCKEE

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/tahoetruckee_chart4_msi_condos_4-8.pdf

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/tahoetruckee_chart3_msi_sfh_4-8.pdf

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/tahoetruckee_chart5_averagedom_sfh_4-8.pdf

Single Family Homes – Percentage of Properties Under Contract

Condominiums – Average Days on the Market

Condominiums – Percentage of Properties Under Contract

13.4% 12.5%

10.5% 10.9%

12.8% 13.3% 15.0% 14.8%

10.9%

13.3%

18.0%

21.7% 23.3%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%


Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Percentage of single-family homes under contract in the Tahoe/Truckee region.

180

130

204

165

251

130

89

144 156 162 154

173 167

0

50

100

150

200

250

300


Source: SFMLS, October 3, 2012 Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Average days on market for condominiums under contract in the Tahoe/Truckee region.

6.7%

9.6% 8.5% 8.5%

11.6% 11.2%

12.3%

10.8%

13.2%

7.5%

9.4%

11.4% 12.2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%


Source: SFMLS, October 3, 2012 Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Percentage of condominiums under contract in the Tahoe/Truckee region.


TAHOE/TRUCKEE

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/tahoetruckee_chart7_percentundercontract_sfh_4-8.pdf

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/tahoetruckee_chart6_averagedom_condos_4-8.pdf

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/tahoetruckee_chart8_percentundercontract_condos_4-8.pdf

Single Family Homes – Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price

Condominiums – Sales Price as a Percentage of Original Price

82.2%

89.7% 89.5% 91.0%

86.6% 87.5% 87.0% 87.6% 89.0%

83.5%

92.2%

83.3%

89.7%

76%

78%

80%

82%

84%

86%

88%

90%

92%

94%


Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Sales price as a percentage of original asking price (all adjustments) for single-family homes in the Tahoe/Truckee region.

89.9% 90.4%

89.6%

86.0% 84.7%

93.0% 92.3%

91.6%

94.8%

88.7% 88.7%

92.3% 92.0%

78%

80%

82%

84%

86%

88%

90%

92%

94%

96%


Source: SFMLS, October 3, 2012 Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Sales price as a percentage of original asking price (all adjustments) for condominiums in the Tahoe/Truckee region.


TAHOE/TRUCKEE

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/tahoetruckee_chart9_salesprice_originalprice_sfh_4-8.pdf

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/tahoetruckee_chart10_salesprice_originalprice_condos_4-8.pdf

A Closer Look at Tahoe/Truckee


Alpine Meadows

210,000$ n/a n/a 1 0 n/a 101 n/a n/a 210,000$ n/a n/a

Donner Lake 70,000$ 438,736$ 527% 1 3 200% 1441 281 -80% 70,000$ 158,736$ 127%

Donner Summit

n/a n/a n/a 0 0 n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a n/a

North Lake Tahoe

2,354,850$ 4,208,350$ 79% 12 11 -8% 133 174 31% 191,500$ 302,000$ 58%

NorthStar 7,305,100$ 17,533,400$ 140% 11 26 136% 113 177 57% 575,000$ 324,450$ -44%

Squaw Valley 1,420,000$ 6,106,000$ 330% 4 10 150% 129 231 79% 332,500$ 511,250$ 54%

Tahoe City 1,032,500$ 120,000$ -88% 2 1 -50% 132 273 108% 516,250$ 120,000$ -77%

Tahoe Donner

1,852,000$ 1,594,550$ -14% 8 6 -25% 119 22 -82% 265,500$ 232,525$ -12%

Truckee 2,023,900$ 1,760,000$ -13% 6 5 -17% 179 70 -61% 259,450$ 305,000$ 18%

West Shore n/a 9,451,000$ n/a 0 4 n/a n/a 158 n/a n/a 2,662,500$ n/a

Tahoe/Truckee: Condominiums, Q1 2012 vs. Q1 2013

Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Data is for condominiums in the Tahoe/Truckee region.



Alpine Meadows

938,000$ 1,776,382$ 89% 2 2 0% 264 136 -49% 469,000$ 888,191$ 89%

Donner Lake 2,870,000$ 2,006,000$ -30% 7 4 -43% 77 96 25% 310,000$ 544,500$ 76%

Donner Summit

2,505,500$ 2,349,500$ -6% 9 9 0% 183 152 -17% 222,500$ 250,000$ 12%

Martis Camp 2,850,000$ 9,365,000$ 229% 1 3 200% 27 106 294% 2,850,000$ 2,865,000$ 1%

North Lake Tahoe

29,990,038$ 21,262,348$ -29% 37 34 -8% 151 125 -17% 336,600$ 389,950$ 16%

NorthStar 4,970,000$ 9,028,000$ 82% 7 6 -14% 66 342 418% 570,000$ 1,285,250$ 125%

Squaw Valley 4,295,000$ 3,215,000$ -25% 4 2 -50% 417 198 -53% 1,200,000$ 1,607,500$ 34%

Tahoe City 14,342,076$ 13,592,000$ -5% 17 14 -18% 98 89 -9% 650,000$ 815,000$ 25%

Tahoe Donner

31,202,411$ 27,411,200$ -12% 63 52 -17% 117 86 -26% 442,000$ 499,950$ 13%

Truckee 14,039,815$ 26,678,192$ 90% 39 50 28% 89 134 51% 315,000$ 435,000$ 38%

West Shore 14,993,010$ 10,057,500$ -33% 31 20 -35% 134 139 3% 325,000$ 356,000$ 10%

Tahoe/Truckee: Single-Family Homes, Q1 2012 vs. Q1 2013

Source: Terradatum, April 4, 2013. Data is for single-family homes in the Tahoe/Truckee region.



TAHOE/TRUCKEE

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/tahoetruckee_chart12_section2_cities_condos_4-8.pdf

http://docs.pacunion.com/2013q1/tahoetruckee_chart11_section2_cities_sfh_4-8.pdf

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