pv monitoring business analysis, technology trends and players 2013 report by yole developpement
DESCRIPTION
PV Monitoring is a key ingredient in future global energy management solutions, as it strengthens the link between PV inverter manufacturing and the services provided by PV system operators. PV Monitoring – an indispensable element for future global energy management Worldwide electricity demand is expected to rise quickly, due mainly to rapidly growing economies’ high energy consumption. Photovoltaics (PV) technology enables the transformation of solar energy into electricity in a clean, direct way, and is considered an important part of the energy solution for a sustainable future Earth. The PV market is poised for growth; by 2020, it will reach nearly 450 GWp of cumulative installed capacity. PV monitoring helps satisfy PV project developers’ and system owners’ key needs by guaranteeing maximum ROI from PV installations thanks to higher system availability, better performance, tighter safety and lower operational & maintenance costs. This report analyzes market trends and explains how PV monitoring has become essential to global energy management systems and successful integration of large intermittent PV electricity volumes into the electrical grid. For largesize installations in mature PV markets, a PV monitoring solution is a mandatory element which should be factored in at the early stages of PV project development in order to increase project bankability and reduce costs related to financing and insurance. New partnerships and M&A activities are on the way During an installation’s lifetime, a number of companies are involved in PV monitoring on different levels, i.e. PV project assessment, PV system commissioning, PV monitoring equipment and PV monitoring services. PV monitoring’s supply chain is a work in progress and there are still many opportunities for small players - especially for companies working in software and data analysis, and firms involved on the local end (distribution, installation, maintenance, etc.). As this report shows, the trend towards vertical and horizontal integration within the PV monitoring value chain reflects efforts to capture more customers by proposing better, more complete and more geographically-accessible solutions. The growing need for global energy management solutions provides an opportunity for large multinational companies, which are already looking for small, easy-to-acquire firms that can help them accelerate development of complete energy solutions such as autonomous PV-battery systems, smart homes and smart cities. Inverter and battery makers, providers of smart-data analysis methods and well-established local monitoring companies are the focus of ongoing Merger & Acquisition (M&A) and partnerships efforts. More information on the report at http://www.i-micronews.com/reports/PV-Monitoring-Business-Analysis-Trends-Main-Players/5/387/TRANSCRIPT
© 2013
Copyrights © Yole Développement SA. All rights reserved.
PV Monitoring Business Analysis, Technology Trends and
Main Players
The indispensable element of the future global energy management
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Table of Contents
• List of Acronyms 4
• Objectives of the report 5
• Content of the report 6
• Executive Summary 7
• Introduction 28
– Monitoring = opportunity for a sustainable business
– Noteworthy News
• PV Monitoring 33
– Definition of the terminology used
– PV monitoring at a glance
– Overview of a monitoring system components
– Overview of variables to monitor
• Why to monitor PV systems? 38
– Main goal of PV monitoring
– Goals of PV monitoring - Overview
– Improved bankability
– Lower O&M costs
– Enhanced electricity production
– Part of global energy management solution
– Electricity grid stabilization
– Higher safety & security
– Environmental aspect visibility
– Source of valuable data for research purposes
– New vs existing PV installation
– Importance of PV monitoring thorough the installation life span
– Added value as perceived by customer
• PV monitoring trends 60
– Overview
– Unmet customer needs
– PV monitoring standards
– Monitoring as a part of energy management solution
– Improved safety
– Towards a higher level of services
– DC arc detection
– Problem localization and identification
– Towards the monitoring at module level
– Smart Junction Box
– Intelligent PV modules
– Monitoring of non-PV systems
– Simple installation, easy configuration and operation
• PV Monitoring Costs 81– PV Monitoring Costs - Overview
– How much is customer ready to pay for PV monitoring?
– 1. Site assessment costs
– 2. Acquisition costs
– 3. Operational costs
– Cost pressure on monitoring systems
• 2013-2020 PV Monitoring Market Trends 92– Overview of PV market segments
– PV monitoring specificities for different market segments
– Main approaches to increase the profit from PV monitoringsolutions
– Extraordinary 2000-2012 PV market growth
– 2013-2020 PV market forecast
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Table of Contents
– 2013-2020 PV Monitoring Market Trends
• Supply Chain 103– Many opportunities for business diversification and partnerships
– Main short-term M&A targets
– Opportunities for small players and local business
– Trends towards vertical and horizontal integration
– Recent moves
– Partnerships
– Supply Chain - Overview
– PV monitoring providers• classification according to company type
• classification according to positioning within the PV market segments
– Trends towards PV monitoring at module level
– PV monitoring leaders – comparative criteria
– Positioning of leading independent PV monitoring players
– What is an independent PV monitoring?
– Importance of an independent PV monitoring provider
– Importance of an independent PV monitoring solution
– Strategy approaches of PV monitoring players
– Company profiles
• PV monitoring system components 134– “Foolproof solution” is an advantage
– Sensors
– Pyranometer vs. reference solar cell
– Terrestrial measurement vs satellite data
– Is the satellite data approach the winning one?
– Data logger
– Data transfer
– Data treatment and analysis
– Data Visualization Systems
– Data Storage
• General Conclusions 171
• Appendix: Presentation of Yole Développement 173
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Content of the report
• The present report from Yole Développement describes and analyses PVmonitoring market and technology solutions.
• A strong focus on system components and different technology and marketapproaches provides the insight into the market trends and future customerneeds.
• Yole provides answers to the following key questions in order to facilitatetechnology development and business development strategy:
– What are the main market drivers for PV technology solutions?
– How the PV monitoring system could reduce the electricity costs for PV systems?
– What is the added value of PV monitoring thorough the PV system life time ?
– How the PV monitoring solutions will evolve in the future?
– What are the advantages & drawbacks of different technology approaches?
– Which PV monitoring companies are the today’s leaders and why?
– Is there a market potential for new players?
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Monitoring = opportunity for a sustainable business
Manufacturing of PV components
”Low margins, tough competition”
• Situation in the past:
– Fast growing market
– Shortage of components resulting in high margins for manufacturers
• Today:
– Market still growing but at a lower growth rate
– Manufacturing overcapacity
– High number of manufacturers
– Tough competition, squeezed margins
– Most leading players are vertically integrated and have very large production capacities – market entry for a newcomer very difficult.
PV monitoring “The Business after Business”
• Situation in the past:
– Small number of installations
– Mainly small installations
– High ROI due to the generous FITs
• Today:
– Business opportunity for both new and already realized PV installations
– Growing needs for monitoring
– Multiple business opportunities:
• Geographical
• Positioning within the supply chain
– PV monitoring becomes a part of complete solutions for the energy management (autoconsumption, smart grids…).
Contrary to PV component manufacturing, growing PV monitoring business provides currently many opportunities and has a large potential for the future.
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Function of an advanced monitoring systemYole Développement
PV monitoring at a glance
• PV monitoring system delivers valuable information about the state and performance of PV system:– System is working normally reporting about the system parameter values
– System presents some unusual behavior alert
– System indicates a problem alarm
• In most cases, PV monitoring system enables to trigger an action.
• Main goal of monitoring is to guarantee the maximum return on investment from PV installation via– Higher system availability, performance and safety
– Lower operational & maintenance costs
MonitoredSystem
External sensors/data
Systemsensors Monitoring
Data analysis
Monitoring Output
Data
Transfer
Action
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Overview of a monitoring system. Not all components are necessarily present for a given monitoring system. Red lines represent data transfer.Yole Développement
Overview of Monitoring System Components
Energy meterPV inverter
PV modules
System sensors (module temperature)
Local alarm (intrusion)
Meteorological data
Data logger
Module monitoring
device
Data treatment and analysis center
Data storage
Meteorological sensors
Visualization
Storage “Heart” of a PV monitoring
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The goals targeted by PV monitoring may be very different for different customers. It is important to well-identify the goals requested by customer in order to make a right choice of monitoring system
design, components, variables to measure and services associated to monitoring.
Main goals of PV monitoringSource: Yole Développement
Goals of PV monitoring - Overview
Goals of PV monitoring
Improved bankability
Lower O&M costs
Part of global energy management solution
Higher safety and security
Enhanced electricity production
Source of valuable data for research purposes
Environmental aspect visibility
Electricity grid stabilization
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The cost of PV monitoring solution increases with the granularity of the monitoring and the depth of the data analysis.
Comparison of costs for different monitoring solutions. The monitoring on system level did not enable suitable smart analysis of monitored data.Yole Développement
PV Monitoring TrendsProblem localization and identification - costs
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The implementation of additional functionalities (monitoring, safety…) directly into the PV module junction box (attached directly to a PV module) helps reducing manufacturing
costs and installation complexity and time.
PV Monitoring TrendsTowards the monitoring at module level
Smart Junction Box
Smart junction box has additional functionalities compared to conventional PV module junction box.Yole Développement
• MPP tracking• DC/AC conversion
(microinverter)• DC Disconnection• Overvoltage protection• Performance monitoring
at module level• Anti-theft function• …
Smart Junction BoxConventional Junction Box
• Electrical connection to solar cell
• By-pass diodes
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• To find a suited site for large-scale installation, usually many different sites have to be evaluated.
• In the case of small (residential) installation, the assessment based on solar irradiation maps (available for free) is most commonly used.
• Generally, the site assessment can be costly and time-consuming if done using measurement sessions using solar radiation sensors.
• Solar resource assessment using satellite data can be much faster, less costly and more relevant because the historical data can be also taken into account. In preliminary stage of research, some free available solar irradiation databases can be used. – Solar resource assessment using detailed satellite data and complex algorithms:
• It takes approx. 2 weeks
• It costs $3,000 - $5,000. The price depends on geographical location, climate complexity, and solar resource parameters to be evaluated.
– PV Yield Assessment based on satellite data:
• It takes approx. 2 weeks
• It costs $5,000 - $8,000, depending on the size of the power plant in consideration, and the number of technology options to be evaluated.
Usually, many different sites have to be evaluated to choose a suited site for large PV installation.
PV Monitoring Costs1. Site assessment costs
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The development of the PV market is today driven mainly by PV support mechanisms (temporarily) and intrinsic (sustainable) PV drivers. In the future the PV market will be also strongly influenced by the electricity storage and smart grid development. PV monitoring will considerably
participate in enabling the future PV growth.Yole Développement
The future will be solar powered…and monitoring will help to make it real…
Inherent PV advantages
Growing environmental
concerns
LCOE decrease for PV systems
Technological and product
maturity
Massive deployment of PV
Electricity storage
development
Smart grid development
Fossil fuels are limited
PV market support
mechanismsLCOE: Levelized Cost of Electricity
Monitoring needed
Metering/monitoring needed
Monitoring needed
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The PV monitoring business provides many opportunities for business diversification and partnerships.
Overview of business activities related to PV monitoringYole Développement
Supply ChainMany opportunities for business diversification and partnerships
PV monitoring
PV inverters
Data analysisSolar radiation data providersDevice manufacturer
O&M servicesEV Storage Electricity meter
Non-PV monitoring
Sensor manufacturingand calibration
Data storage
Installation
Data transfer
WEB services
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Smart home / Smart city
First integration trends are signs of coming partnerships and M&A activities.
Vertical and horizontal integration trends within the PV manufacturing supply chain. Hot short-term M&A targets are shown in red.Yole Développement
Supply ChainTrends towards vertical and horizontal integration
Horizontal integration
Ve
rtic
al in
tegr
atio
n
Meteo and system sensors
Devicemanufacturing
System integration
Data analysis
WEB services
System O&M
Battery
PV inverter
Non-PV monitoring services
Irradiation sensors
Solar resourcedata
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• In 2010, inverter maker Power-One has bought venture-backed Fat Spaniel Technologies, provider of the monitoring and reporting services for the renewable energy industry. Fat Spaniel claimed that it managed over 3,800 sites, including the San Francisco International Airport, in 23 countries.
• Power-One has been purchased by ABB in April 2013.
ABB purchased recently Power-One (inverter manufacturer) which has purchased in 2010 a provider of software for monitoring and analyzing the performances of solar generation
projects, Solar Spaniel Technologies.
Supply ChainRecent moves
Fat Spaniel Power One (2010) ABB (2013)
PV inverter manufacturing Energy Efficiency. Smart grids.PV monitoring services
2010 2013
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Different levels of data analysis are used, depending on customer’s needs and budget.
Different levels of data analysis in PV monitoringYole Développement
PV Monitoring System Components Data treatment and analysis – different levels
1. Basic approach
•Data measurement, transfer and visualization
•Eventually some data pre-treatment (averaging, extrapolation of missing data) is done prior to their visualization
2. Threshold approach
•Measured data are pre-treated and compared with expected values
•The comparison is made on a threshold basis (% deviation from the expected value).
• Information sent to the user depends on the deviation level OK / Alert / Alarm
3. Smart data analysis
• Sophisticated analysis of measured data enabling
• Avoiding of false alerts and alarms
• The problem localization within the PV installation (Where?), identification (What? ) and classification (How critical?)
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Yole Activities
Media businessNews feed / Magazines /
Webcasts
ReportsMarket
Research
Consulting servicesMarket research,
Technology & Strategy
www.yole.fr
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