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Putting Forecasting at the Forefront


⎻ Director, Education Sales

⎻ JTM Food Group

⎻ [email protected]

Carole Erb – moderator

mailto:[email protected]


Today’s panel

Richard Browder

SNS, FMP

Brighton Area Schools

Patrick Renzi

Director of Sales K12

Acosta Foodservice

Scott Euton

Bid Sales Manager

US Foods


• Carole Erb ⎻ Employee: JTM Food Group

• Richard Browder⎻ Employee: Brighton Area Schools

• Patrick Renzi⎻ Employee: Acosta Foodservice

• Scott Euton⎻ Employee: US Foods

Affiliation or Financial Disclosure


Forecasting from an Industry Perspective


• Industry Perspective:

⎻ Critical to planning production

⎻ “We want to make

what you want to buy!”

⎻ Communication is key:

Make a plan and share the plan


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• Helps Processors plan production ⎻When to make product – lead time is a reality

⎻How much product to make

• Benefit for the School District⎻Efficiencies produce better pricing

⎻Helps Distributors plan space allocations

⎻ Less shortages



Forecasting from the School District Perspective


•Financial

⎻ Revenue

⎻ Expenses

•Menu Planning

⎻ Marketing & Promotion

⎻ ADP



Forecasting Best Practices

1. SET GOALS

2. PLAN

3. REVIEW



Forecasting from the Broker Perspective



•Why is Forecasting so important?

•Proper Communication is Critical

•Role of your Broker – a valuable resource!!


FORECASTING ACTUAL EXAMPLES

Los Angeles Unified SD

Oakland Unified SD

Long Beach Unified SD


Item # DescriptionAverage

Finished Case Weight

CN Serving Size (oz.)

M/MA per

Serving

Eq. Grain

Estimated Number of

Servings Desired

÷

Approx. FULL

Servings Per Case

=Number of

Finished Cases

XUSDA

Foods per Case

=Pounds Needed

ABC Processor USDA Foods material

5705 Cheddar Cheese Sauce 110242 30.00 1.82 1.00 -- 26,300 ÷ 263.0 = 100 X 15.00 = 1500.00

5708 Beef Patties 100154 30.00 1.82 2.00 -- 52,600 ÷ 263.0 = 200 X 15.00 = 3000.00

5715 Turkey Patties 100883 30.00 1.90 2.00 -- 75,600 ÷ 252.0 = 300 X 8.10 = 2430.00

Excel Example

Total pounds needed to be sent to ABC Processor:110242: 1,500#100154: 3,000#100883: 2,430#



Forecasting from the Distributor Perspective



School District

Distributor

Broker / Vendor

Vendor Production

Distributor

• Distributor Perspective:

⎻ Forecasting starts with you

⎻ Understanding the forecasting

procurement timeline

⎻ Give your vendors & distributors time

to produce, procure and deliver.



• Forecast Accuracy:

⎻ Forecast what you need, when you need it.

⎻ Anticipate additional participation

⎻ Discuss with your managers the effect of

over ordering.


Forecasting Examples

75 75 75 75

0 0

300

00

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4

CA

SES

MENU CYCLE

FORECAST A

Forecast Actual

150

0

150

0

110

30

130

40

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Week 1 Week 2 Week 3 Week 4

CA

SES

MENU CYCLE

FORECAST B

Forecast Actual



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putting forecasting at the forefront - schoolnutrition.org · richard browder sns, fmp brighton...

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