Purple Market Research at INSIGHT 2006

November 2006

OLD MEETS NEW: using the Delphi Method to research

the latest technology

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USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY

1. What is the Delphi Method?

2. How can it be applied to market research?

3. Old meets new: using the Delphi Method to research the digital signage market

4. Applications and benefits

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USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY

1. What is the Delphi Method?

2. How can it be applied to market research?

3. Old meets new: using the Delphi Method to research the digital signage market

4. Applications and benefits

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USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY

Origins of the Delphi Method

Originated in the Delphic Oracle

Technique for eliciting and combining judgements systematically from a group of experts

Adopted by science and technology for forecasting (e.g. Rand Corporation)

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USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY

The Delphi Method uses the Hegelian dialectic process…

THESIS

ANTITHESIS SYNTHESIS

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USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY

Putting it another way…

Hypothesis presented by

facilitator

Reactions of expert panel

Analysis of responses

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USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY

Process goes through a number of rounds before final consensus formed

Initial view presented by

facilitator

Reactions of expert panel

Analysis of responses

Final consensus

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USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY

When is Delphi Method suitable?

Researching a new technology or science when trend extrapolation unreliable

When there is little available data

When the data available is inconsistent

When the topic is amorphous

When a topic is complex and difficult to explore by empirical means

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USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY

1. What is the Delphi Method?

2. How can it be applied to market research?

3. Old meets new: using the Delphi Method to research the digital signage market

4. Applications and benefits

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USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY

Applications in market research

Forecasting

Estimating current market size

Profiling markets – key segments, key players, market shares, regional analysis

Estimating market trends

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USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY

When is Delphi Method suitable?

When there is little available data

When the data available is inconsistent

When the topic is amorphous

When a topic is complex and difficult to explore by empirical means

Also…when the budget is limited

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USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY

Applying the Delphi Method to market research

Initial view presented by

facilitator

Reactions of expert panel

Analysis of responses

Final consensus

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USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY

Methods employed

Focus groups / workshops Personal interviews Telephone interviews Online / email

…Usually a mix of the above

Secondary desk research Internal workshops Initial qualitative interviews

Testing

Hypothesis

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USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY

1. What is the Delphi Method?

2. How can it be applied to market research?

3. Old meets new: using the Delphi Method to research the digital signage market

4. Applications and benefits

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USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY

Our case study: the European digital signage market

To better understand the European digital signage market and thereby assist strategic planning

- Estimate the size of the European market- Identify key applications – current and future- Identify key players and market shares- Determine distribution channels & decision making process- Determine market trends- Identify market opportunities for Denon

Client

Product

Business objective

Research objectives

Digital signage media player

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USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY

What is digital signage?

‘The use of digitally connected signs – plasma displays, LCD’s, kiosk stations, computer monitors & televisions – to replace and enhance

traditional media, with all play out content (advertising or information) being centrally or remotely managed and scheduled’

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USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY

What makes the digital signage market difficult to measure?

It’s new and not well documented…

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USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY

What makes the digital signage market difficult to measure?

There is little standardisation…

Digital signage?

Narrowcasting?

Captive Audience Networks / CAN?

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USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY

What makes the digital signage market difficult to measure?

Structure is complex and different analyses include different elements (and double counting?)…

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USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY

What makes the digital signage market difficult to measure?

Data available is incomplete and inconsistent…

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USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY

The Delphi Method in action

Estimated market size and profile based on desk

research

Reactions of expert panel via telephone interviews / emails

Analysis of responses & refinement of

hypothesis

Final consensus

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USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY

Forming an hypothesis through desk research – firstly market value

Global estimates:Digital signage market (retail

only): US$800mWhole digital signage market:

US$1.6bn

USA estimates:Digital signage market:

US$600m

European estimates for digital signage market:

UK: 200m eurosGermany: displays worth 25m

euros…assuming displays are 20% of costs overall digital signage market worth 120m euros

Netherlands: 60m euros

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USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY

Other useful information collected in desk research…

Breakdown of project costs

Also…

Main OEM’s

Units sold / market shares (provisional)

Main distributors and distribution channels

Applications / key target sectors

Player software

Other

Player hardware

Display hardware

Initial project management

Installation

Technical support Management

software

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USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY

Who was in our panel of experts?

Denon Professional

Other OEM’s

Distributors & installers

Trade media / industry commentators

Trade associations (e.g. PLASA, POPAI)

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USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY

Methods employed

Personal interviews Telephone interviews Online / email

Secondary desk research Workshops / consultation within

Denon

Testing

Hypothesis

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USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY

Key deliverables from research

Other deliverables:

Main OEM’s & market share

Distributors & installers

Key applications – retail, hospitality, transport, etc

Trends and growth applications

Opportunities for DenonFrance Germany

UKOther

Europe

Nether lands

Total European market value: 500m euros

Value of media player market: 100m euros

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USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY

1. What is the Delphi Method?

2. How can it be applied to market research?

3. Old meets new: using the Delphi Method to research the digital signage market

4. Applications and benefits

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USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY

Research to gauge potential market for online Health & Safety consultancy service

Analysis of commercial catering market in non-mains gas areas

Potential for LPG consultancy service Analysis of use of LPG in housing market

Estimating the size and profile of the market for entertainment technology

Examples of other successful applications…

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USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY

Applying the Delphi Method

Part of a wider research project – combined with other research…

…or a stand alone project

Appropriate for analysing markets that are poorly documented / complex

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USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY

Benefits of using Delphi Method

A robust alternative to quantitative research

Objective

Simple and explicit

Cost effective

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USING DELPHI METHOD TO RESEARCH NEW TECHNOLOGY

THANK YOU